Where would Alex Smith Rank? (1 Viewer)

[amicsta]

The Chiefs seem to have received alot of flack (and deservedly so) for their trade for Alex Smith. My question is: where would you rank Alex Smith if he was available in this draft class? And I don't mean as a prospect, I mean in a world where the 49er's just released him to the draft pool instead of free agency. Where would he go? It seems to me that is a rather large piece of the puzzle. For what it's worth, I'd rather pay a 2nd rounder for a guy that I know can at least play and is worlds better than Matt Cassel than reach at the 1st overall pick for a QB that I'm not sold on.

And again, I do think the Chiefs overpaid because of that second pick, I'm just interested in if this perspective changes some peoples' minds on how they feel. Although I think if they can manage to move back from the 1st pick, get an impact player at that spot, and get one of the picks back they lost+, they may end up being the winners of this trade.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

He'd be a top 3 QB pick. That's all I can say for sure.

 

[Late225]

I believe the main reason people believe they overpaid is his salary. Alex Smith is making 8 million a year for the next two years, whereas Andrew Luck as the number 1 pick, will make $22 million over 4 years, or approximately $5.5 million per year.

If Alex Smith was a prospect, he might be rated higher than he's rated now. He was the number one overall quarterback in his class and there's no concensus number one quarterback in this class. I think his play over the last few years have hurt his stock versus before played a down in the league.

 

[jonboltz]

I'd bet that the latest he'd go would be 2.02

 

[FUBAR]

I'd bet that the latest he'd go would be 2.02

Agreed. I've given flack for the trade, but not from the stand point that they overpaid, just that if I were a chiefs fan (and having lived in Kansas for 6 years i would almost qualify) i would be tired of them always taking someone else's used goods at the most important position.

 

[Gopher State]

#1 qb off the board

 

[mr roboto]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

 

[Christo]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

Anyone who says different is

 

[Steed]

Recency bias in full effect here.

 

[mr roboto]

Recency bias in full effect here.

Meaning?

 

[5Rings]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

Anyone who says different is

Chiefs got a good deal. The trade thread lacks intelligent postings.

 

[Abraham]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

This.

 

[beef]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

This.

Yep. Better than any prospect in this draft.

 

[beef]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

Anyone who says different is

Agree

 

[Tanner9919]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

Anyone who says different is

Chiefs got a good deal. The trade thread lacks intelligent postings.

I dont know..the Niners let Smith shop himself during 2012 offseason..remember Miami was his supposed destination? I woner why nothing got done,why no one signed him? I can take a guess - he's not that good.I understand that this draft lacks quality QB depth, and that Smith,at the high spot in the second round *might* beat anyone else who would've been left at the QB position when round 2 arrives..but don't they have other GLARING needs that are more urgent than QB? seems to me that a team that loses 14 games needs defensive help... Chiefs need so many things I don't see Smith as being a player that can bring them to the playoffs, or even .500..if you compare his numbers vs. Cassel they're near mirror images of one another..ok so Smith did well last 1.5 years in SF..what happens if Reid calls for Smith to pass the ball 40 times/gm like he's been prone to do in Philly? we keep hearing 'the Chiefs have talent,they're a good team' , but they just finished 2-14..29-67 last 6 seasons,or something ridiculous like that..'talented' teams dont lose 67 games in 6 seasons..

they could use defensive help,after giving up 20th most points allowed, 8th worst in ppg allowed, 6th worst in scrimmage yards/play avg, 14th in 3rd down %,29th in total team sacks, tied for 31st (Dallas) team ints..

so yes they need defensive help in the worst way, so what do they do? bring in a clock managing QB...it's a disaster waiting to happen..so why did they trade for him in the first place?!I get that he's cheaper than a first rounder on an unproven rookie.

but it's doubtful he's anything more than a stopgap player..Chiefs won't do better than 8-8 with him..

the other question is why give up a 2nd rounder for him,they could've gotten him for a 3rd or 4th..where was the interest in Smith coming from? what other teams were interested? none, probably..

a team in dire need of talent at a lot of other posisitions, gave up WAY too much for an also-ran QB who isn't going to be their 'QB of the future' anyways...

 

[FUBAR]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

This.

Yep. Better than any prospect in this draft.

I'm pretty sure at least a few of Joeckel, Fisher, Milliner, Warmack, and Cooper have better futures than Smith. But Smith is safer and plays the premium position.

 

[drummer]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

Anyone who says different is

Chiefs got a good deal. The trade thread lacks intelligent postings.

I dont know..the Niners let Smith shop himself during 2012 offseason..remember Miami was his supposed destination? I woner why nothing got done,why no one signed him? I can take a guess - he's not that good.I understand that this draft lacks quality QB depth, and that Smith,at the high spot in the second round *might* beat anyone else who would've been left at the QB position when round 2 arrives..but don't they have other GLARING needs that are more urgent than QB? seems to me that a team that loses 14 games needs defensive help... Chiefs need so many things I don't see Smith as being a player that can bring them to the playoffs, or even .500..if you compare his numbers vs. Cassel they're near mirror images of one another..ok so Smith did well last 1.5 years in SF..what happens if Reid calls for Smith to pass the ball 40 times/gm like he's been prone to do in Philly? we keep hearing 'the Chiefs have talent,they're a good team' , but they just finished 2-14..29-67 last 6 seasons,or something ridiculous like that..'talented' teams dont lose 67 games in 6 seasons..

they could use defensive help,after giving up 20th most points allowed, 8th worst in ppg allowed, 6th worst in scrimmage yards/play avg, 14th in 3rd down %,29th in total team sacks, tied for 31st (Dallas) team ints..

so yes they need defensive help in the worst way, so what do they do? bring in a clock managing QB...it's a disaster waiting to happen..so why did they trade for him in the first place?!I get that he's cheaper than a first rounder on an unproven rookie.

but it's doubtful he's anything more than a stopgap player..Chiefs won't do better than 8-8 with him..

the other question is why give up a 2nd rounder for him,they could've gotten him for a 3rd or 4th..where was the interest in Smith coming from? what other teams were interested? none, probably..

a team in dire need of talent at a lot of other posisitions, gave up WAY too much for an also-ran QB who isn't going to be their 'QB of the future' anyways...

There was talk out of MIA that they thought Smith couldn't even beat out Matt Moore. Which could be fairly accurate.

 

[Donnybrook]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

Anyone who says different is

Chiefs got a good deal. The trade thread lacks intelligent postings.

I'm an idiot. I have Alex as the #3 QB in this class. I just like the potential of Geno and EJ over him (maybe not in 2013 but over their careers). Flame away. BTW: Anyone that thought that Russel Wilson or Colin Kaepernick should be starting in 2012 would have invited the wraith of this board.

 

[Steed]

Recency bias in full effect here.

Meaning?

I don't understand how people back a game manager like him. As of today, Alex smith the finished product after plying his trade for several years in the nfl might be a better player then the flawed qb prospects coming in, but give some of those guys a year to develop and I'd say at least 3 guys surpass him and at least 1 more becomes what he is today...a qb that needs a strong defense and run game to win.

 

[mr roboto]

Recency bias in full effect here.

Meaning?

I don't understand how people back a game manager like him. As of today, Alex smith the finished product after plying his trade for several years in the nfl might be a better player then the flawed qb prospects coming in, but give some of those guys a year to develop and I'd say at least 3 guys surpass him and at least 1 more becomes what he is today...a qb that needs a strong defense and run game to win.

Fair enough, but if anything, the recency bias should be working against Smith. Recently, he was benched. Also, this time of year, people tend to be higher on potential for the draft.

 

[5Rings]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

Anyone who says different is

Chiefs got a good deal. The trade thread lacks intelligent postings.

I'm an idiot. I have Alex as the #3 QB in this class. I just like the potential of Geno and EJ over him (maybe not in 2013 but over their careers). Flame away. BTW: Anyone that thought that Russel Wilson or Colin Kaepernick should be starting in 2012 would have invited the wraith of this board.

I won't argue your point and there is no need to flame you. QB3 is still going to go around 2.02 or earlier, so it is still a good deal for both sides.The guys that should be flamed are the ones that think Smith and Cassell are identical players and foolishly think the 49ers would have let Smith walk for nothing.

 

[Steed]

The guys that should be flamed are the ones that think Smith and Cassell are identical players

Stylistically they aren't the same. But they're both system qbs. KC done got raped. Never needed to make the trade.

 

[Concept Coop]

Recency bias in full effect here.

Meaning?

I don't understand how people back a game manager like him. As of today, Alex smith the finished product after plying his trade for several years in the nfl might be a better player then the flawed qb prospects coming in, but give some of those guys a year to develop and I'd say at least 3 guys surpass him and at least 1 more becomes what he is today...a qb that needs a strong defense and run game to win.

 

[beef]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

This.

Yep. Better than any prospect in this draft.

I'm pretty sure at least a few of Joeckel, Fisher, Milliner, Warmack, and Cooper have better futures than Smith. But Smith is safer and plays the premium position.

qb prospects.i agree with you which is why i like this deal for kc. they still keep 1.01 to use on a overall prospect i think will be better long term too.

 

[Donnybrook]

#1 qb off the board

Yep.

Anyone who says different is

Chiefs got a good deal. The trade thread lacks intelligent postings.

I'm an idiot. I have Alex as the #3 QB in this class. I just like the potential of Geno and EJ over him (maybe not in 2013 but over their careers). Flame away. BTW: Anyone that thought that Russel Wilson or Colin Kaepernick should be starting in 2012 would have invited the wraith of this board.

I won't argue your point and there is no need to flame you. QB3 is still going to go around 2.02 or earlier, so it is still a good deal for both sides.The guys that should be flamed are the ones that think Smith and Cassell are identical players and foolishly think the 49ers would have let Smith walk for nothing.

I believe KC got in a bidding war with Arizona and overpaid. San Francisco should have been happy with a 4th round pick for a player who was obviously not happy being the backup. The other shoe has not dropped for KC. Unlike a rookie they will have to sign him to an extension soon and it won't be cheap.

 

[ldizzle]

Where would matt cassell go compared to alex smith?

 

[amicsta]

My feelings on the trade.

 

[shadyridr]

#1 overall

 

[amicsta]

Where would matt cassell go compared to alex smith?

I would guess anywhere from "later" to "much later" haha

 

[Steed]

Alex smith for a 2nd and future 3rd or kolb for free?

Sorry amicsta, your analysis is way off here.

 

[FF Ninja]

Just stumbled upon this article. Interesting. http://moneyinthebananastand.com/2013/02/28/alex-smith-superstar/#more-955

 

[thriftyrocker]

Recency bias in full effect here.

Meaning?

I don't understand how people back a game manager like him. As of today, Alex smith the finished product after plying his trade for several years in the nfl might be a better player then the flawed qb prospects coming in, but give some of those guys a year to develop and I'd say at least 3 guys surpass him and at least 1 more becomes what he is today...a qb that needs a strong defense and run game to win.

At least 3 guys surpass him? I highly doubt it.

There's a spectrum of QB here. Sure you want to get Rodgers or Brees. And keep trying until you get it right. But this is not fantasy. You need competency at QB in order to post a winning record. KCC is not looking at the Super Bowl. They are looking at taking the first step.

The success rate of Rd2+ QBs is abysmal. And the success rate of Rd1 QBs is hit and miss. There are no sure things in this draft. There aren't even any "could be"s. There's just a bunch of hope and best of a bad class.

It's possible none of the QBs in this draft have more career Ws or career passing TDs than Smith has left.

Eventually you want to replace Smith just like SF did. But Geno has a lot of work to do just to be a "not going to hurt you" QB. His turnover rate is terrible. He makes bad plays. Sure he has a higher upside, but it's possible he is never as good as Smith, and it's likely he's never appreciably better (i.e., a Super Bowl winning QB).

The NFL is QB based. But you can make the playoffs with a game manager. Yes you need a capital T Team, but half the teams in the playoffs don't have great QBs. There's only so many great QBs to go around.

A lot of times its worse to have an "almost great" QB than it is to have a game manager. See Romo, Cutler, etc. Those guys can take you only so far.