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Which 2016 Rookie RB are one-hit wonders? (1 Viewer)

Here are the top 43 RB of 2015 sorted by their draft position. I then counted the number of players by draft round and divided this by 43 for a percentage. If you wanted to go deeper than this I could see doing that, but I am including all players who were fringe RB 3 for FF or better in this sample. The number to the left of the players name is where they were ranked overall in fantasy in standard scoring leagues in 2015. The number to the right of the players name is their age in 2015 and the last number is where they were picked.

1st rounders. 

40    Darren McFadden    DAL    28    1st    4        9    0.21
4    Adrian Peterson*+    MIN    30    1st    7            
16    Todd Gurley*    STL    21    1st    10            
116    Ryan Mathews    PHI    28    1st    12            
47    Jonathan Stewart*    CAR    28    1st    13            
123    Chris Johnson    ARI    30    1st    24            
14    DeAngelo Williams    PIT    32    1st    27            
43    Mark Ingram    NOR    26    1st    28            
11    Doug Martin*+    TAM    26    1st    31            

These 9 players had four in the top 20.  With McFadden and Ingram having top 50 numbers in 2015. So two thirds of these guys. 21% of the top 43 were formerly 1st round picks. Only Gurley is young. Every other RB on this list is 27 or older.
                                
101    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    22    2nd    36        9    0.21
65    Giovani Bernard    CIN    24    2nd    37            
26    Matt Forte    CHI    30    2nd    44            
48    LeSean McCoy*    BUF    27    2nd    53            
137    Ameer Abdullah    DET    22    2nd    54            
39    Jeremy Hill    CIN    23    2nd    55            
125    Shane Vereen    NYG    26    2nd    56            
100    Eddie Lacy    GNB    25    2nd    61            
36    Frank Gore    IND    32    3rd    65            

These 9 players had four players in the top 50. Again 21% of the top 42 were 2nd round picks.
                                
61    Ronnie Hillman    DEN    24    3rd    67        6 .014
68    Charles Sims    TAM    25    3rd    69            
55    DeMarco Murray    PHI    27    3rd    71            
118    Duke Johnson    CLE    22    3rd    77            
24    David Johnson    ARI    24    3rd    86            
132    Matt Jones    WAS    22    3rd    95            

Aside from David Johnson these players did not do all that well 14% of the top 43 came from the 3rd round.
                                
20    Lamar Miller    MIA    24    4th    97               5    0.12 
2    Devonta Freeman*    ATL    23    4th    103            
70    Jeremy Langford    CHI    24    4th    106            
124    Javorius Allen    BAL    24    4th    125            
133    Darren Sproles*    PHI    32    4th    130            

Two of these 4th round picks were in the top 20. Miller has moved on to a starting job with a new team. 12% of the top 43 came from round 4.
                                
110    Karlos Williams    BUF    22    5th    155        1    0.02

For a completely random reason NFL teams don't use many picks in the 5th round on RB.
                                
127    Alfred Blue    HOU    24    6th    181        4    0.09
31    Latavius Murray*    OAK    25    6th    181            
76    James Starks    GNB    29    6th    193            
126    Theo Riddick    DET    24    6th    199            

You have one top fifty player and some lower scoring players from round 6. The 6th rounders were 9% of the top 43
                                
135    Justin Forsett    BAL    30    7th    233        2    0.05
62    Rashad Jennings    NYG    30    7th    250            

Two of last seasons starters were formerly 7th round picks.

25    Chris Ivory*    NYJ    27    UDFA            7    0.16
33    Danny Woodhead    SDG    30    UDFA                
99    Thomas Rawls    SEA    22    UDFA                
104    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    22    UDFA                
105    LeGarrette Blount    NWE    29    UDFA                
106    C.J. Anderson    DEN    24    UDFA                
109    Charcandrick West    KAN    24    UDFA              

Undrafted free agents were 16% of the top 43 RB in 2015. There were more UDFA in the top 43 than any of these groups aside from the 1st and 2nd round guys. Many of the 1st and 2nd round RB are older players which is a reflection of how things have changed. RB just are not being drafted as high as they once were. 
 

 
The list of the NFL's active leading rushers is dominated by guys who were 1st-3rd round picks:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush_yds_active.htm

I think lasting success requires special talent, and it's rare for players with special talent to fall past the first 90-110 picks. 

If you are looking for a stopgap guy, I think you can be more optimistic about the late round flyers. I think players like Perkins, Booker, and Dixon are potentially good enough to have a Zac Stacy type of rookie year. The issue that they'll face is the same one that guys like Stacy and Ellington have suffered from: every year brings another 8-10 viable RBs into the league, which creates competition. Mediocre starters struggle to last more than a few draft cycles without their teams finding an upgrade. 

Basically, the more mediocre you are, the easier it is for a team to find a player who can either take your place outright or at least approximate what you provide. The reason guys like Peterson, MJD, SJax, and Charles are able to be the long term guy is because their skill sets are extremely hard to replace, and there may only be one prospect in each draft class on average who has anywhere near their talent level. 

I would like to take shots on guys like Booker and Dixon if the price were reasonable. My issue is that, even in a down year, I think they're going a bit too high. 

 
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110    Karlos Williams    BUF    22    5th    155        1    0.02

For a completely random reason NFL teams don't use many picks in the 5th round on RB.
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so of course, this year there were 6 RBs taken in round 5..and arguably all of them have a reasonable path to some fantasy relevance.

 
coolnerd said:
so of course, this year there were 6 RBs taken in round 5..and arguably all of them have a reasonable path to some fantasy relevance.
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Yep. When I compiled a list from 2002 to 2016 the 5th round picks were 30 total RB drafted in round 5 which was only 7% of the entire sample for picks in that time frame. There were more picks used on RB in every other round besides the 5th round.

6 of those picks were in 2016. So from 2002 to 2015 there had only been 24 picks used on RB in round 5. Or less than two per season on average.

2014 and 2003 didn't have any RB drafted in round 5 and 2010 2007 2005 and 2004 only had one.

From 2002 to 2015 49 fourth round picks were used on RB and only 24 fifth round picks were used on RB. That is twice as many in round four compared to round five.

I suppose we could look at this low frequency of draft picks on RB in round 5 to be an indication that teams with a need at this position will address it before round five. That might make some sense because of there being so many compensatory picks at the end of round four. But I more consider it random than anything else.

 
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Cross posting this from the Dixon thread but this is why I think there were so many 4th and 5th round rbs this year 

When do you draft a qb in a redraft league?   I'll tell you when I do.   For the top guys I'll take them when I think they're the best value on the board.   I might even let one slide a little longer because I am hoping i can get them even later and if not, i still expect i can get a good value in the later rounds.  In the later rounds, I usually have several guys ranked almost identically.  So my goal is to get one of the good ones,  but not to overpay.   I'm almost never the first guy to take a qb in that tier, but if I do it's going to be my favorite, and usually by a decent margin. 

Who were the top rbs?  I think it went 1. Elliot 2. Henry 3. A lot of guys,  including Dixon,  booker,  prosise, drake,  Perkins, Howard - a lot like redraft qbs, there's a bunch of similarly ranked guys who had different strengths and weaknesses.   

I think what happened is that after the top couple went, teams day back and waited until the run began.   A couple teams reached on prosise and drake, but then Dixon went.  Two picks later,  booker. 7 picks later,  Washington.  6 picks later,  Perkins and Howard go back to back.  3 picks later Smallwood. 3 picks later Williams.   7 running backs in 23 picks, including two who were consensus top five among draftniks.

It's definitely possible that they were worse than anyone realized before the draft and teams just waited because the guys all sucked.  But it's also possible that teams waited because there were several similarly ranked players and there was no need to make sure you got the first one of a tier when it meant passing on a more difficult to fill position like defensive line.  

Comparing pick number to pick number really doesn't do much for me.   

 
Good thread. I enjoyed reading. I saw no mention of Keith Marshall. Maybe i missed it.  He certainly seems like some1 who could carve out a role this year. I'd like to here peoples take on him

 
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bostonfred said:
It's definitely possible that they were worse than anyone realized before the draft and teams just waited because the guys all sucked.  But it's also possible that teams waited because there were several similarly ranked players and there was no need to make sure you got the first one of a tier when it meant passing on a more difficult to fill position like defensive line.  
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I think you answered your own question. Why did all of those RBs fall to the 4th-5th round? Why did teams "reach" for Prosise and Drake earlier? Because those two guys offer unique skills that differentiate them from the rest of the RB class. The other backs don't have their ability to line up wide and hit big plays from multiple positions. That quality makes Drake and Prosise more valuable than the rest, which is probably why teams paid a premium for them instead of getting one of the more conventional three down types.

I don't think the idea that teams "waited because there were several similarly ranked players" and "waited because the guys all sucked" are mutually exclusive, which is what you seemed to imply above. I think it all comes back to the supply/demand and bell curve idea that I was getting at earlier. I think the NFL's RB population looks like the latter half of a bell curve if you were to rank it by supply (y axis) and skill (x axis). There are LOTS of guys in the NFL with serviceable skill. We see it every year when players like Spencer Ware, Branden Oliver, and Thomas Rawls are thrust into duty and perform quite well. On the other hand, there are VERY FEW guys in the NFL who really provide significant value over the average street level replacement.

So if you are an NFL team, why would you commit an early pick on a back when there are 40-50 guys in the NFL with a similar degree of ability? I think teams waited on guys like Booker and Dixon not because "they suck" necessarily, but because teams don't see any hard-to-replace qualities in those players. There's really no risk in passing on a Buck Allen or Cameron Artis-Payne in the 4th round of the draft when you can get the same player next year.

When I look at guys like Booker and Dixon, I don't think "they suck." On the other hand, I don't think they provide any uncommon skills or talents. There is nothing in particular to distinguish this cluster of early day three backs from the ones we got last year (Mike Davis, Cameron Artis-Payne, David Cobb, Jeremy Langford, etc). In all likelihood, we'll get another 7-10 guys who are at least this good in the next draft as well. So if you're looking at guys like this and trying to explain why a whole bunch of them fell in the draft, well there's your answer: because there are a whole bunch of guys like this.

The same cannot be said for most backs who go in the first round. Sure, there are exceptions and busts there too (guys like Donald Brown). In general though, most players who go that high have special traits the separate them from their peers. You are not going to find someone with Chris Johnson's speed of Reggie Bush's versatility every year. You are not going to find a player with Todd Gurley's power and speed combination every year. These guys offer rare traits, and that's why teams pay a premium for them.

 
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Biabreakable said:
Dion Lewis will be 27 years old in September. This will be his 6th season in the league and I don't think he has managed to stay healthy for a full season yet. RB usually have the best years of their careers during their first six seasons.

Who isn't a placeholder type RB currently in the NFL? Is Eddie Lacy a long term answer?
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Lewis is currently 25.  Will be 26 in September.

 
EBF said:
The same cannot be said for most backs who go in the first round. Sure, there are exceptions and busts there too (guys like Donald Brown). In general though, most players who guy that high have special traits the separate them from their peers. You are not going to find someone with Chris Johnson's speed of Reggie Bush's versatility every year. You are not going to find a player with Todd Gurley's power and speed combination every year. These guys offer rare traits, and that's why teams pay a premium for them.
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OK.  What do you think was special about foster but didn't stand out enough that he could go undrafted?   What traits do the late round gems share?   Is it being good at a lot of things?  Great at one thing like speed or power?   Is there anything you look for besides draft position and to a lesser extent situation?  Or do you just draft receivers and forest round picks? 

 
bostonfred said:
OK.  What do you think was special about foster but didn't stand out enough that he could go undrafted?   What traits do the late round gems share?   Is it being good at a lot of things?  Great at one thing like speed or power?   Is there anything you look for besides draft position and to a lesser extent situation?  Or do you just draft receivers and forest round picks? 
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There are always going to be guys like Brady, Foster, and Colston who slip through the cracks for whatever reason. Scouting is an inexact science, but it's a science all the same and the results over the years show that teams generally do a pretty good job of identifying the best players. Even a lot of the guys who were severely underated in hindsight were still relatively high picks (i.e. Gore, McCoy, Rice, Charles, MJD).

If you are asking what I personally look for in RBs, well there are a lot of variables to consider. The dream scenario is the Madden "create-a-player" type of guy like Peterson or Tomlinson who has size, explosiveness, agility, and speed. Those are hard to find and they tend to get snapped up in the first round of the NFL draft. Guys like Nick Chubb and Ezekiel Elliott roughly fit the mold. They don't have any major skill set deficiencies. Once you get deeper in the draft, you start dealing with players who are flawed in one way or another. I think some flaws are more damning than others. I used to put a high value on power and body type. I still think it's relevant, but I don't think it's necessary or sufficient. Speed is nice, but not 100% necessary. Probably the #1 trait that I look at these days is elusiveness. I've whiffed on size/speed guys who didn't have great moves (i.e. Michael Dyer, Thomas Tyner, Andre Williams). I've seen a lot of guys who had great college production fail. I've seen workout freaks fail. However, it seems to me that players with great elusiveness and agility almost always achieve some kind of success in the NFL, especially if they have some power and speed to go with it. I was a big supporter of backs like Dion Lewis and Ray Rice when they were draft prospects. I liked Branden Oliver a lot at Buffalo and, while he may never be a starter in the NFL, he has overachieved relative to his draft slot. Darren Sproles is another great example. The ability to cut on a dime and make people miss seems really valuable at every level of football, so that may be the #1 thing I look for.

The other big variable is cost. If I can't get an elite RB prospect high in the draft, when I invest a mid-late round pick at the position it's usually on a guy whose rookie draft ADP is somewhat appropriate for his NFL draft slot. Apart from Elliott, the only other rookie RBs I've drafted so far this year are Kenyan Drake and Jonathan Williams. Part of the reason why I've ended up with them in some places is because they've tended to fall deeper in the rookie draft than other prospects with similar NFL draft slots (for example Drake is typically available later than Prosise/Dixon/Booker while Williams is typically available later than Perkins/Howard).

 
Like EBF, the one quality I really focus on now (after failing in the past while falling for size/power or speed or even college production) is elusiveness. A great NFL back has to be able to make guys miss and he has to be able to produce some on his own.  It is hard to do that with power because NFL players are so much bigger and it is hard to do that with speed too for the same reason. But elusiveness seems to translate better and more consistently.

 
Biabreakable said:
For some sense of certainty folks will use draft position as an indication of relative RB talent. However for the past decade we keep seeing RB being drafted later than years before making it much more difficult to use draft position as a guide to which RB are truly better than the others. Not many RB are being drafted in the 1st or even 2nd round of drafts.

So you can be like EBF and just throw up your hands and say it is too hard to differentiate between these lower RB draft picks, but if you do that you will only have a handful of choices of players who were drafted high to choose from.

I don't think that is good enough. I think if you watch football and understand fantasy football you should be able to separate these guys into who has better odds of becoming a starter. That is the first thing they need to accomplish and most of these won't. If you can identify the starters from the COP you will be on your way to identifying a possible long term starter as well. They have to win a starting job first before they have a chance at repeating.
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Context is everything. And those who use which round a player is drafted in as the most important factor, over anything else, don't always do so well in real world dynasty leagues - as least from my personal experience being 13 years in a league with one such expert. (his website calls him that, so it must be true).

You don't see Matt Waldman downgrading a player, saying "He was taken in the 5th round, so obviously he is not any good." or that if you like a 2nd round player over one taken in the 1st "You are betting against the house" (of course, it is never mentioned by the "draft pedigree" people, that the house at best wins 50% which means if you bet on a coin flip you will be as accurate as the house...but I digress). 

Anyway, you never see Waldman make such ridiculous statements about players, as he is not a lazy analyst and actually takes the time to meticulously look at film of just about each individual player drafted, which is why his opinion and viewpoint are so highly valued and the RSP has a large annual subscriber list. If you trust somebody who cuts corners for expediency and assumes that probability is more important than first hand analysis, then, well, good luck to you in your league, as you will really need it.

 
squistion said:
Context is everything. And those who use which round a player is drafted in as the most important factor, over anything else, don't always do so well in real world dynasty leagues - as least from my personal experience being 13 years in a league with one such expert. (his website calls him that, so it must be true).
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I'm 30-18 (63%) in that league over the last four seasons, with two division titles. I just checked and in that same time frame you are 23-25 (48%). I'm not sure that you should be jawing about results there. I have some really bad teams (my HyperActive teams have been especially trash in recent years), but also some good ones. I find that my newer teams tend to be better than my older ones, as I think I've refined my methods over the years. I am always trying to learn from past mistakes. Ironically, a lot of my bad picks in that PDFFL league have come when I've trusted my own analysis over the draft slot (passed on Beckham, passed on Hopkins). 

I don't follow Waldman's stuff (I try not to pay for FF content -- too much free info out there these days), but from personal experience I think I've fared better in drafts when I've trusted my initial gut reaction rather than when I've scrutinized every last detail. Writing reams of content about players doesn't ensure that it's good content. I honestly have no idea what Waldman's hit rate has been like in recent seasons or who "his guys" have been in the last few drafts, but I know that in the last year I bought the RSP he had Damian Williams from USC rated ahead of Demaryius Thomas and was a huge fan of Cedric Peerman. That's not meant as a slight on him. Take any draftnik and I guarantee you that he'll have lots of huge misses. I think Kiper had Mike Williams (USC) as the top player in his draft. Greg Cosell was a huge fan of Trent Richardson and RGIII. Even pro teams spending small fortunes on scouting still miss on about 50% of their first round picks.

Anyway, I've yet to find a person who can consistently try to outsmart the NFL draft market and win, so I'll stand by draft position as the best anchor point for any rookie analysis.

 
EBF said:
I'm 30-18 (63%) in that league over the last four seasons, with two division titles. I just checked and in that same time frame you are 23-25 (48%). I'm not sure that you should be jawing about results there.
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Yes, of course, you just want to look at the last four years. Not surprising you didn't list our records since joining the league, nor did you mention I won in 2010 a 12 team Conference Championship plus the 24 team League Championship and you have never won either. Here are both our records since league inception in 2003.

My team:

83-73 Regular Season Record - Win %.532
31-21 Division Record - Win %.596
5-5 Playoff Record - Win %.500

Playoff Appearances: 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014

Total League Winnings $1040

Your team:

70-86 Regular Season Record - Win %.448
26-26 Division Record - Win %.500
1-2 Playoff Record - Win %.333

Playoff Appearances: 2012, 2014

Total League Winnings $180

 
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squistion said:
Yes, of course, you just want to look at the last 4 years. Not surprising you didn't list our records since joining the league, nor did you mention I won in 2010 a 12 team Conference Championship plus the 24 team League Championship and you have never won either (but I digress). Here are both our records since league inception.

My team:

83-73 Regular Season Record - Win %.532
31-21 Division Record - Win %.596
5-5 Playoff Record - Win %.500

Playoff Appearances: 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014

Total League Winnings $1040

Your team:

70-86 Regular Season Record - Win %.448
26-26 Division Record - Win %.500
1-2 Playoff Record - Win %.333

Playoff Appearances: 2012, 2014

Total League Winnings $180
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Is patting yourself on the back a thing now?

 
DropKick said:
Is patting yourself on the back a thing now?
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I was just responding to this:

I'm 30-18 (63%) in that league over the last four seasons, with two division titles. I just checked and in that same time frame you are 23-25 (48%). I'm not sure that you should be jawing about results there.
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People who live in glass houses...

 
You haven't finished with a better record than me since 2010. I wouldn't be celebrating what I did last decade in the year 2016, but then again I'm not the type of guy to develop imaginary rivalries with people I've never met or competed against, and hold grudges over nothing for 10+ years.

Sorry to the rest of you for derailing this thread, but just look through this guy's post history. He mentions me constantly in his posts and looks for every opportunity to call me out. This has been going on for years and years, even though I've never really done anything to him. It is very strange behavior, and I'm subjected to it almost constantly when I post anything on here. Reminds me that I need to update the ol' ignore list...

 
EBF said:
You haven't finished with a better record than me since 2010.
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Yes, let's start our team comparison after the year I won the league championship :lol:  

That pesky 2010 doesn't count, what is really meaningful is what happened after that.

 
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squistion said:
Context is everything. And those who use which round a player is drafted in as the most important factor, over anything else, don't always do so well in real world dynasty leagues - as least from my personal experience being 13 years in a league with one such expert. (his website calls him that, so it must be true).

You don't see Matt Waldman downgrading a player, saying "He was taken in the 5th round, so obviously he is not any good." or that if you like a 2nd round player over one taken in the 1st "You are betting against the house" (of course, it is never mentioned by the "draft pedigree" people, that the house at best wins 50% which means if you bet on a coin flip you will be as accurate as the house...but I digress). 

Anyway, you never see Waldman make such ridiculous statements about players, as he is not a lazy analyst and actually takes the time to meticulously look at film of just about each individual player drafted, which is why his opinion and viewpoint are so highly valued and the RSP has a large annual subscriber list. If you trust somebody who cuts corners for expediency and assumes that probability is more important than first hand analysis, then, well, good luck to you in your league, as you will really need it.
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Well one thing about draft position is that it is more predictive than other things, such as combine data, college performance and so on although some seem to think they have found the holy grail in some of these other areas.

It is kind of fun to try to make sense of draft position, the context of the teams offense, the other players competing for playing time on that team, what was the draft capital invested into those players? How old are the players? What are their contract situations? What are the coaching tendencies? And so on to help figure out where each of these RB fits into their team, what their team may have drafted them for and your evaluation of the players involved.

I have always been more of a numbers guy because that is the way I have always played FF. Back in the day I only got to see nationally televised games. I believe in remote sensing with data. But recently since I have been able to do so, I have been trying to evaluate a bit more subjectively through observations. I think I have gotten better at that, but I still have a lot to learn.

We don't have signatures anymore but anyone who has seen mine should know there is no trick I won't try, no angle I wont consider, no stone not worth turning.

It is not even that hard. On average there are twenty RB drafted each year that you need to learn about and make judgments on. That really isn't a lot of players to evaluate.

 
I couldn't find some of my favorite Dixon highlights in gifs, so 

https://youtu.be/XqPnaMf3h6s

1:34, 3:24, 4:34 and 5:00 are all fun fun plays if you like elusiveness.  If you watch him long enough you see he always falls forward at the end of his runs, and his ability to catch the ball in stride and especially on the sidelines is really strong for a running back.   

 
Prosise does have the ability to make nice cuts, but it's not consistent. You can see it on this run and on the play that follows:

https://youtu.be/2-MyeF1m7x4?t=39s

Those were decent moves. However, when I watched his actual game clips, I felt like he was a bit tentative as a runner. Like he was still thinking while he was running. That may be down to his lack of experience at this position. He really doesn't have that many carries under his belt and was still a WR up until pretty recently.

I had a really tough time narrowing it down between him and Drake in one league. I ultimately went with Drake because there was a little more of a consistent "wow" factor with him, but I'm not 100% convinced it was the right call. The fact that Prosise went to a stronger organization and that Carroll talked about having a specific role in mind for him really intrigued me. While I'm not sure if he can become the bell cow, I could see him becoming a guy who is nominally a RB, but who gets enough snaps/catches as a WR that he still has starting value in PPR leagues.

With Perkins I see a poor man's Marshawn Lynch. He even wears the same number. Nice jukes. Speed and size just okay. Admittedly, they don't have much else on the Giants. Andre Williams looks like a bust and Jennings is no dynamo. Perkins has a pulse in redraft for sure. As I said, not a buyer in dynasty at his current price.

 
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One of the things I look for in running backs is highlights or games where they were actually the star and not their o line.   I remember watching Andre Williams highlights and he always seemed to be flying through these enormous holes,  and almost never actually changing direction or making moves.   To some extent every running back has some of those but I just skip past those.  I want to see the running back make yards.  

With Dixon there are a lot of plays where his own line dominates some no name school and he takes advantage.   I don't care about those.  But watch him score touchdowns, which he did a lot of.   He has so many moves close to the stripe - he gets push with his legs,  he reaches at the right time,  he makes those subtle little cuts when there's a defender right in front of himand he knows he's going to get hit but he doesn't want to get stood up and he's always falling forward.  He just looks like a future star to me. 

 
bostonfred said:
I couldn't find some of my favorite Dixon highlights in gifs, so 

https://youtu.be/XqPnaMf3h6s

1:34, 3:24, 4:34 and 5:00 are all fun fun plays if you like elusiveness.  If you watch him long enough you see he always falls forward at the end of his runs, and his ability to catch the ball in stride and especially on the sidelines is really strong for a running back.   
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The run at 1:09 is my favorite one. I have tried to be critical with him but he is a very good player.

 
Biabreakable said:
I agree with you that Dixon is a bit quicker and perhaps better long speed to finish than Booker has Fred.

I don't agree that Dixon is a better receiver as Booker is very good in that area as well.

I have Booker at 6th and Dixon at 9th so obviously I don't think there is a huge difference between them. I just like Booker more.
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Just additional info on Dixon - not disagreeing.  Dixon came into LA Tech at 240lbs and squats 600lbs+...he has the capacity to be very powerful.  I provided a link for reference.

http://www.thenewsstar.com/story/sports/college/louisiana-tech/2015/12/17/strong-roots-story-behind-kenneth-dixons-stardom/77479308/

 
bostonfred said:
OK.  What do you think was special about foster but didn't stand out enough that he could go undrafted?   What traits do the late round gems share?   Is it being good at a lot of things?  Great at one thing like speed or power?   Is there anything you look for besides draft position and to a lesser extent situation?  Or do you just draft receivers and forest round picks? 
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One of the main reasons Foster went undrafted is because he had a bad relationship with his coaches at UT.  The coaches ripped him to NFL personnel - he was a philosophy major.  He did an entire interview in Pterodactyl - they didn't know how to place/gauge him - his coaches gave heavy criticism...if you are an NFL GM/Coach are you gonna take a risk on this guy regardless of the tape?

He was the epitome of square peg in round hole for the NFL.

There are a lot of factor in a draft, and when GMs & Coaches don't know what to make of something they ignore it.  Look at what happened to Laraemy Tunsil....they had no idea what to make of the Gas Mask video even though he had never failed a drug test, while some of the players selected before him had.....Just my .02  

 
Noah Davis said:
One of the main reasons Foster went undrafted is because he had a bad relationship with his coaches at UT.  The coaches ripped him to NFL personnel - he was a philosophy major.  He did an entire interview in Pterodactyl - they didn't know how to place/gauge him - his coaches gave heavy criticism...if you are an NFL GM/Coach are you gonna take a risk on this guy regardless of the tape?

He was the epitome of square peg in round hole for the NFL.

There are a lot of factor in a draft, and when GMs & Coaches don't know what to make of something they ignore it.  Look at what happened to Laraemy Tunsil....they had no idea what to make of the Gas Mask video even though he had never failed a drug test, while some of the players selected before him had.....Just my .02  
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I had to google this.  WTF?

 
squistion said:
Yes, let's start our team comparison after the year I won the league championship :lol:  

That pesky 2010 doesn't count, what is really meaningful is what happened after that.
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Uh... none of it matters. Your opinion has no more validity than EBF's, and vice versa. FF opinion is all just conjecture that we hope leads to personal success.

 
az_prof said:
Like EBF, the one quality I really focus on now (after failing in the past while falling for size/power or speed or even college production) is elusiveness. A great NFL back has to be able to make guys miss and he has to be able to produce some on his own.  It is hard to do that with power because NFL players are so much bigger and it is hard to do that with speed too for the same reason. But elusiveness seems to translate better and more consistently.
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I am similar. Being able to change direction on a dime and speed are things that are God given (Jamal Charles, Chris Johnson types), and the potential of further strength and development (again I point to those two backs as perfect examples of guys who had elite speed and change of direction but were thought of as not strong enough runners coming out of college). All it took was one NFL off-season for both those backs and they went on to have elite careers and years.

This IMO is a weak RB class and your going to pay a premium for backs this year because of the lack of depth at the position in general. It is really tough to get a real good FF RB now. I can draft PPR WR's all day with the new rules in place. But 3 down backs? They are disappearing. RBBC has destroyed the position for FF purposes and finding that elusive 3 down back is the gold in FF now.

 
Todem said:
I am similar. Being able to change direction on a dime and speed are things that are God given (Jamal Charles, Chris Johnson types), and the potential of further strength and development (again I point to those two backs as perfect examples of guys who had elite speed and change of direction but were thought of as not strong enough runners coming out of college). All it took was one NFL off-season for both those backs and they went on to have elite careers and years.

This IMO is a weak RB class and your going to pay a premium for backs this year because of the lack of depth at the position in general. It is really tough to get a real good FF RB now. I can draft PPR WR's all day with the new rules in place. But 3 down backs? They are disappearing. RBBC has destroyed the position for FF purposes and finding that elusive 3 down back is the gold in FF now.
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Right. Although in PPR, I am now pretty happy if I can find a guy who catches the ball a good bit.  They are golden too even if they don't get all the carries or TDs.  Finding Dion Lewis was a godsend last year, until he got hurt.

 
zamboni said:
I think the bold is the key point. The number of starting RBs whose jobs (outside of injury) are most likely firmly entrenched beyond this year are few and far between:

To me, that's only Bell, Elliott, Gurley and maybe Gordon (draft position will keep him around), Ingram and McCoy. The studs Peterson and Charles aren't quite in this mix due to age, with their replacements probably around the corner.

So the bottom line is that just about everyone else is ultimately replaceable if they don't produce at a high level this year.

We've seen it for years now - the RB position is very fungible and very few guys have a long-term stranglehold on the position.
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The one quality I focus on is what round was he picked in.  Then if two players are the same round, who was picked first.  If they are really close, I choose which team has historically been better.  It really simplifies the draft process for me.  

 
bostonfred said:
I couldn't find some of my favorite Dixon highlights in gifs, so 

https://youtu.be/XqPnaMf3h6s

1:34, 3:24, 4:34 and 5:00 are all fun fun plays if you like elusiveness.  If you watch him long enough you see he always falls forward at the end of his runs, and his ability to catch the ball in stride and especially on the sidelines is really strong for a running back.   
Click to expand...
I'm a fan of the play at 6:46. Catch and run 50 yard with a juke and a running 360.

 
Deandre Washington is not getting enough respect for his opportunity.  He excels at what Lat Murray doesn't.  Even in a RBBC Washington could easily be fantasy relevant.  I like Perkins, but he needs to fight off a player very similar in Vereen.  Washington has a easy path to playing and no RB on the Raiders roster can play the position like he can.

 
beef said:
Deandre Washington is not getting enough respect for his opportunity.  He excels at what Lat Murray doesn't.  Even in a RBBC Washington could easily be fantasy relevant.  I like Perkins, but he needs to fight off a player very similar in Vereen.  Washington has a easy path to playing and no RB on the Raiders roster can play the position like he can.
Click to expand...


 There was some quiet rumblings that the organization wasn't totally happy with Latavius Murray at times either last season. I even recall at least one game, possibly two where he was outright benched. I know, I owned him in several leagues and watched it closely.

 Here is a case where I was pretty high on him going into last year. Yeah, I thought he might be a solid RB for teams, I saw his Monday night breakout performance the year prior. I am not as high on him anymore. I think he can be a serviceable RB2 for fantasy purposes, but my high hopes for him to be an upper tier RB1 are slowly fading.

 He is on my "must handcuff" list if I own him anywhere. Will Washington be a nice bellcow if Murray is benched or injured?  I am not so sure, I need to study Deandre Washington a bit before the season. I am just not acquiring Latavius Murray under the high expectations anymore. I don't think its all talent related either. I think the organization seems to be stuck in a limbo point of "yeah he is decent, but are we really committed" stage.

 Simply put, I think Latavius Murray has a short leash going into the season.

 TZM

 
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