benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
This is generally the season when a WR will make his way into the NFL's elite. So who will it be from this group? Who will improve the most? Who will just be a bust?
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Which 3rd year WR will make the most improvement? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter benson_will_lead_the_way
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Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
The way it's worded you'd have to vote for someone like Vincent Jackson. He had 108 fantasy points last year. He could easily double his production. Guys like Edwards and Clayton would have to score close to 400 to double their production. That's not going to happen.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
This is an urban legend of epic proportions, but if people want to buy into it I'm not going to stop them.
radballs
Footballguy
gman8343
What would Lemmy do?
I agree. Edwards & Clayton have already put pretty solid numbers up, but Williamson has been a huge bust so far. I think he'll bounce back somewhat, though he definately won't be the best of this bunch.
I was just looking for a thread on the "3rd year WR theory", but was coming up empty. Is there such a thing, or did I read an article last year?I think that Jackson is in line for the most improved; no clear cut #1 WR, a QB with some more experience, and all eyes on LT.
videoguy505
Footballguy
williamson ( can't catch ) + jackson ( can't throw ) = incomplete pass
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Agreed.When one says a player who most improves it means that player has not produced yet. And that is Williamson from this list. Even Jackson has shown more by now than Williamson has but I think Williamson will have a good enough season and make people stop doubting him. That will mean he will be the most improved of these WR even though some of them may have better seasons than he does.
I thought Williamson would break out last year but he struggled catching the ball and that hurt his confidence. Williamson has been working VERY hard on this all offseason. I won't be suprised to see him only drop one or 2 passes all season with the work he has put in. Jake Reed was able to fix this problem and I believe Williamson can too. The main difference here being Williamson is a much more gifted athlete than Reed ever was. I am very excited to see what Williamson can do this year and many are down on him which makes for a great value player.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
It also could be a WR that had a good year last year but a great year this season.
Off the top of my head but the 3rd year rule last year.
Roy Williams made the jump, Lee Evans, Bernard Berrian, and others (I may be wrong here but some players did achieve that "urban myth" last season)
Off the top of my head but the 3rd year rule last year.
Roy Williams made the jump, Lee Evans, Bernard Berrian, and others (I may be wrong here but some players did achieve that "urban myth" last season)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
They certainly do. It is more a matter of what benchmarks your using for a player "breaking out" or not.RBs more than any other position have productive rookie years but in looking at historical data on RBs there is a large tendency for RBs to improve on thier EOY points scored ranking compared to other RBs in thier 3rd (and 4th) seasons than they do in thier 1st 2 seasons. So that would mean a 3 year break out tendency for RBs is a trend that may be stronger than it is for WRs (although I have not taken the time to run those rumbers. Construx boy has but I have not looked deeply into it enough to see if his analysis was using similar or the same parameters as myself and Driver were using for the RB).
identikit
Footballguy
Logically speaking, any player's 'year' in the league could be the breakout one. Urban myths work when people only remember the instances when the myth seems to hold true. When it doesn't work, little/no attention is given.
People want to believe in them. So selective memory kicks in, and they believe.
Id
radballs
Footballguy
Like the Madden curse as well. Superstition and statistical data mining to make your "selective memory" case don't really hold any validity.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If we set the bar at first 1000 yard receiving season . . .
YEAR TEN
Kennison
YEAR NINE
TBrown
YEAR SIX
Stokley
YEAR FIVE
Housh, Chambers, Horn, Bryant, Mason, McCardell, JSmith
YEAR FOUR
Harrison, Wayne, Driver, Furrey, Ward, Muhammad, Bennett, Price, Toomer, Chrebet
YEAR THREE
Owens, Evans, Smith, Walker, Williams, Coles, SMoss, Booker, Keyshawn, RSmith, Moulds, Lelie
YEAR TWO
Johnson, Holt, Burress, D-Jax, AJohnson, Fitzgerald, Bruce, MRobinson, Boston, K-Rob, Burleson
YEAR ONE
Colston, Galloway, Boldin, Glenn, RMoss, Clayton
IIRC, these were the only guys that were active at any point last year that have had at least one year with 1000 yards receiving. The spread was all over the map (and if we looked back 5 years or 10 years earlier the distribution pattern would be different).
While Year Three was well-represented, it's not like it had three times as many players than other years.
People can read more on this HERE and HERE.
YEAR TEN
Kennison
YEAR NINE
TBrown
YEAR SIX
Stokley
YEAR FIVE
Housh, Chambers, Horn, Bryant, Mason, McCardell, JSmith
YEAR FOUR
Harrison, Wayne, Driver, Furrey, Ward, Muhammad, Bennett, Price, Toomer, Chrebet
YEAR THREE
Owens, Evans, Smith, Walker, Williams, Coles, SMoss, Booker, Keyshawn, RSmith, Moulds, Lelie
YEAR TWO
Johnson, Holt, Burress, D-Jax, AJohnson, Fitzgerald, Bruce, MRobinson, Boston, K-Rob, Burleson
YEAR ONE
Colston, Galloway, Boldin, Glenn, RMoss, Clayton
IIRC, these were the only guys that were active at any point last year that have had at least one year with 1000 yards receiving. The spread was all over the map (and if we looked back 5 years or 10 years earlier the distribution pattern would be different).
While Year Three was well-represented, it's not like it had three times as many players than other years.
People can read more on this HERE and HERE.
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
I'm going with Matt Jones (While I have nothing to base it on, I believe Leftwich stays healthy all year and the Jags finish neck and neck with the Colts in the South).
wannabee
Footballguy
So, how many leagues are you drafting Vince Young in this year?Like the Madden curse as well. Superstition and statistical data mining to make your "selective memory" case don't really hold any validity.
az_prof
Footballguy
Actually, Jackson is pretty good. Based upon what do you say he "can't throw"?
az_prof
Footballguy
I think this makes the point more than anything. It shows that WRs are most likely to beak out in years 2,3,4. Not that many produce big numbers as rookies (CJ owners beward) and not that many break out fifth year and beyond. Are there exceptions? Of course. The only "myth" part is if you take as dogma and limit it to year three. But in fact, year three is a year in which many WRs do breakout, and if you combine if with years 2 and four, that accounts for nearly 70% of break out production. Individually, it is the single highest year with 12 breakouts, followed by year two with 11. Myth confirmed.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
He was in that draft class and has a chance to start. Didn't want to exclude people.Bri said:May I ask how Roby made your list?
-OZ-
Footballguy
He was in that draft class and has a chance to start. Didn't want to exclude people.Bri said:May I ask how Roby made your list?
Roscoe Parrish has a chance to start. 
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
I'm just curious why you guys are so high on Braylon Edwards? With a rookie QB at the helm I just don't see why you guys think he will be so productive.
Polyethylene Bag
Footballguy
az_prof said:
Most of the Tarvaris Jackson bashing is coming from people that have not seen him play. He's got a cannon for an arm and would have put up much better numbers last year had he had a reliable set of hands to throw to. He's still got a lot to learn as far as reading defenses, but if Williamson can learn how to catch these two could be a good combo sooner rather than later.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Theres a surprise. Your man love for this guy just wont quit.-OZ- said:
You're right, I actually stand behind my picks. Aside from his coach's recent comments, which can be interpreted differently by reasonable minds, what exactly has he done or not done, to warrant the criticism? When he's been on the field, he's done well. Especially when you consider all the facts.
bcr8f
Footballguy
36 for 43241 for 643 aren't good numbers.Theres a surprise. Your man love for this guy just wont quit.-OZ- said:
You're right, I actually stand behind my picks. Aside from his coach's recent comments, which can be interpreted differently by reasonable minds, what exactly has he done or not done, to warrant the criticism? When he's been on the field, he's done well. Especially when you consider all the facts.
-OZ-
Footballguy
They're not bad either. If you expected him to light up the NFL in his 1st two seasons, I understand the disapointment. Personally, I love the talent, but didn't expect him to step in and be Randy Moss or even Marvin Harrison. Would you be upset with any of these 3 WRs on your team now (their first two seasons, similar to Jones's)A: 27 for 345; 49 for 716 B: 23 for 319; 41 for 716 C: 15 for 246; 61 for 638 Now, he doesn't have Peyton Manning throwing him the rock (A), or Brett Favre (B). Maybe ( C ) is his upside, but IMO he is more physically talented.36 for 43241 for 643 aren't good numbers.Theres a surprise. Your man love for this guy just wont quit.-OZ- said:
You're right, I actually stand behind my picks. Aside from his coach's recent comments, which can be interpreted differently by reasonable minds, what exactly has he done or not done, to warrant the criticism? When he's been on the field, he's done well. Especially when you consider all the facts.
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
The Bears Mark Bradley will make the most marked improvement over last year.
Vincent Jackson will have the best season - hands down.
Here are the prospects to choose from:
1 1 3 3 Braylon Edwards Browns Michigan
2 1 7 7 Troy Williamson Vikings South Carolina
3 1 10 10 Mike Williams Lions USC
4 1 21 21 Matt Jones Jaguars Arkansas
5 1 22 22 Mark Clayton Ravens Oklahoma
6 1 27 27 Roddy White Falcons Alabama-Birmingham
7 2 3 35 Reggie Brown Eagles Georgia
8 2 7 39 Mark Bradley Bears Oklahoma
9 2 23 55 Roscoe Parrish Bills Miami (FL)
10 2 26 58 Terrence Murphy Packers Texas A&M
11 2 29 61 Vincent Jackson Chargers Northern Colorado
12 3 4 68 Courtney Roby Titans Indiana
13 3 19 83 Chris Henry Bengals West Virginia
14 3 32 96 Brandon Jones Titans Oklahoma
15 4 13 114 Jerome Mathis Texans Hampton
16 4 15 116 Craphonso Thorpe Chiefs Florida State
17 4 17 118 Chase Lyman Saints California
18 4 30 131 Fred Gibson Steelers Georgia
19 4 35 136 Roydell Williams Titans Tulane
20 5 4 140 Airese Currie Bears Clemson
21 5 19 155 Larry Brackins Buccaneers Pearl River C.C.
22 5 38 174 Rasheed Marshall 49ers West Virginia
23 6 11 185 Chad Owens Jaguars Hawaii
24 6 16 190 Tab Perry Bengals UCLA
25 6 18 192 Dante Ridgeway Rams Ball State
26 6 21 195 Craig Bragg Packers UCLA
27 7 9 223 Marcus Maxwell 49ers Oregon
28 7 11 225 Paris Warren Buccaneers Utah
29 7 12 226 LeRon McCoy Cardinals Indiana (Pa.)
30 7 26 240 Harry Williams Jets Tuskegee
31 7 39 253 J.R. Russell Buccaneers Louisville
Vincent Jackson will have the best season - hands down.
Here are the prospects to choose from:
1 1 3 3 Braylon Edwards Browns Michigan
2 1 7 7 Troy Williamson Vikings South Carolina
3 1 10 10 Mike Williams Lions USC
4 1 21 21 Matt Jones Jaguars Arkansas
5 1 22 22 Mark Clayton Ravens Oklahoma
6 1 27 27 Roddy White Falcons Alabama-Birmingham
7 2 3 35 Reggie Brown Eagles Georgia
8 2 7 39 Mark Bradley Bears Oklahoma
9 2 23 55 Roscoe Parrish Bills Miami (FL)
10 2 26 58 Terrence Murphy Packers Texas A&M
11 2 29 61 Vincent Jackson Chargers Northern Colorado
12 3 4 68 Courtney Roby Titans Indiana
13 3 19 83 Chris Henry Bengals West Virginia
14 3 32 96 Brandon Jones Titans Oklahoma
15 4 13 114 Jerome Mathis Texans Hampton
16 4 15 116 Craphonso Thorpe Chiefs Florida State
17 4 17 118 Chase Lyman Saints California
18 4 30 131 Fred Gibson Steelers Georgia
19 4 35 136 Roydell Williams Titans Tulane
20 5 4 140 Airese Currie Bears Clemson
21 5 19 155 Larry Brackins Buccaneers Pearl River C.C.
22 5 38 174 Rasheed Marshall 49ers West Virginia
23 6 11 185 Chad Owens Jaguars Hawaii
24 6 16 190 Tab Perry Bengals UCLA
25 6 18 192 Dante Ridgeway Rams Ball State
26 6 21 195 Craig Bragg Packers UCLA
27 7 9 223 Marcus Maxwell 49ers Oregon
28 7 11 225 Paris Warren Buccaneers Utah
29 7 12 226 LeRon McCoy Cardinals Indiana (Pa.)
30 7 26 240 Harry Williams Jets Tuskegee
31 7 39 253 J.R. Russell Buccaneers Louisville
-OZ-
Footballguy
1. Talent2. He did alright with Frye3. We don't know which QB will start, I suspect the coach will play whomever is better4. Most of us are not saying he'll be top 5 or even top 10, just the best from this group
Whether it was Anderson or Frye he did pretty well. BTW He was in Romeo's doghouse(and should have been) so he's got some "growing up" to do but I expect him to behave. There was a drop in his play while he was in the doghouse.For me, re Braylon, I guess I'd give the Q right back to you(original poster) and ask "what do you expect to see from a young WR?" IMO He's done whatever that is. Key 3rd downs, work despite double team, get open deep fast, block, tough catch over the middle. Rice did everything perfectly. Braylon doesn't, there's no sugar coating here. I use Rice as a barometer of sorts and well Braylon's got a ways to improve. Doing those things once, as you know, doesn't mean he's a great player yet either. As much of us pretend we're NFL scouts, Braylon seems to be a WR that has alot going for him.
Browns Rule!
Footballguy
Here is a third year WR thread from last year, take it for what its worth, a simple study that isn't perfect.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...00&hl=Study
Last edited by a moderator:
Pipes
Footballguy
That's why I went with Brandon Jones. Clayton, Edwards & Brown already have decent seasons under their belt so I can't imagine their production increasing as much as a Jones or Jackson.If Mathis can stay healthy, I would not be surprised to see him starting across from AJ. People forget that he made the Pro Bowl (as a returner) in his rookie year.
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