Which 5 of the 2012 top-10 RB's fall out in 2013? (1 Viewer)

[Gawain]

So conventional wisdom is that fully half of the top ten running backs from the previous year do not finish in the top ten the next year. I was wondering if the wisdom of the masses would show an opinion on which RBs are most likely to finish out of the 2013 top ten and are thus over valued and which most people think will repeat their success.

1) Adrian Peterson. 2013 ADP #1 RB. Dominant 2012, but heavy usage and age is creeping up to 30.

2) Doug Martin. 2013 ADP #3 RB. One of the youngest on the list. Dynamic rookie season, but some claim stats inflated by a couple monster games.

3) Arian Foster. 2013 ADP #2 RB. Touchdown machine, but his per touch numbers have trended downward. Age may be a concern.

4) Marshawn Lynch. 2013 ADP #6 RB. Team is built to run and committed to run, but a crowded backfield and looming DWI case may give some pause.

5) Alfred Morris. 2013 ADP #10 RB. Monster rookie season, but high number of carries, lack of involvement in the passing game and the fear of Shananigans are cause for worry.

6) Ray Rice. 2013 ADP #5 RB. Possibly best receiver in the group, but Pierce and declining carry numbers may limit his potential.

7) CJ Spiller. 2013 ADP #7 RB. Phenomenal per touch numbers, but will he be used and can he take the usage of the other backs on the list?

8) Jamaal Charles. 2013 ADP #4 RB. Reid's system should be a great positive, but Charles has never been a high TD guy and had an ACL tear in 2011.

9) Trent Richardson. 2013 ADP #9 RB. Youngest on list and good touchdown numbers, but a sub-4.0 YPC is a scary number.

10) Steven Ridley. 2013 ADP #14 RB. Youth, potent offense and TD opportunities help, but no receiving and potentially unsustainable TD rate cause him to be the only top-10 2012 back with an ADP outside the top ten in 2013.

So, of the top-10 2012 backs, 9 of them have ADPs in the top-10 in 2013. (McCoy is the missing fella.) This isn't to try and predict who will replace the 5 in the top-10, that's likely an exercise in futility. I was just wondering if a picture would emerge of players that people are wary of. If so, it might be better to grab a RB that more feel will maintain his position.

 

[MikeyTitle]

I'm assuming for the sake of argument that all of them stay healthy. The three that im worried about could miss the top ten due to lack of touches for one reason or another.

1st. Rice, I think we all agree that he is definitely a top ten runner but I saw him get pulled more and more last year in a variety of situations. whether to keep him fresh and prolong his career or whatever, if he gets into a 60 40 split he could easily land in the teens through no fault of his own.

Lynch could be sitting in the Poky halfway through the season or just plain suspended for driving all sauced. And there's no question he is the man, but they did just add another talented runner with a high pick. I kinda get the feeling the sea-hawks are preparing for something we all see coming.

And T-Rich is tough and plays through pain but he's already hurt and were not even close to training camp yet. A lot of history in those legs.

I could see anyone of these guys leading the league in Fantasy points from the running back position. But these are the three that I get little warning bells going off in my head. and if I can help it, I will avoid when looking to minimize risk in the first round. Having said that, if I am sitting at the end of the first and can land any of these boys I wont even bother with a poker face. Smiling all the way .

 

[BWill]

Trent is NOT hurt, atleast it's nothing serious.

 

[jurb26]

This is a tough call, as it is every year. I'll go with;

Morris, lack of involvement in the passing game, RH3 recovery and just not sneaking up on anyone this year are all factors to worry about.

Rice, Bernard Peirce, need I say more?

Spiller, hard to put him on my list but Fred Jackson could steal enough touches.

Ridley, barely made it last year and it appears the NE offense has gotten a little worse.

Foster, call it a hunch as I have to pick a 5th.

 

[Shutout]

Hillarious to me that Foster (so far) is considered the 3rd most likely to FALL OUT OF THE TOP 10. The guy has been nothing short of Superman and has constantly been the target of people trying to bring him down. When he first came on, SO many people wouldn't accept it. Then the next year it's like "well....let's see it again". Then coming off last season, people are now concerned with his age ? (26) and pointing to diminishing ypc? Did no one else happen to notice that the 0-line played piss poor last year or that Foster led the NFL in TDs at the position? He's also overused though? But that doesn't apply to a guy like Peterson who has been run into the ground at the same clip I guess.

I don't want to flood the thread with talk about any particular player and arguing one side or the other and I'm not saying Foster is the #1 back or anything but, at the same time, given his track record, it just perplexes me that a guy with a 3-year track record like he has gets put OUT of the top ten and is replaced by people in far less solid offensive situations, have far less track records themselves, or a combo of the two.

Unless we are predicting injury across the field, Foster isn't falling out of the top 10 in any type of scoring league.

 

[cheese]

I think at least part of it is predicting injury. The reality is half the reason the yearly turnover is so high is due to injury. Of course it's nearly impossible to predict, but I would say they don't all carry equal injury risk either.

 

[FF Ninja]

This is a tough guessing game every year. I wanted to vote for Martin because I don't think his talent is even close to his stats, but his situation is just too good. Also was tempted to vote for Charles because I'm always squeamish on him, but I think Reid's offense will be great for him and, like Martin, he has absolutely no one close to starter caliber backing him up. I don't think either guy even has an NFL RB2 caliber backup, actually.

So I went with:

Rice - he won't get nearly the receptions he got with Cameron; Pierce actually looks like a better runner (I expect a better ypc than Rice) so I think he loses quite a few carries to him

Spiller - looked electric in Gailey's offense, but now he's got a new offense and a rookie QB

Ridley - wasn't a very good goal line runner, I think he comes up short this year in the TD department and (again) in the receptions department

Richardson - I don't feel good about this one, but the injuries have to be a concern. I feel like the offense could get on track this year so he could explode, but if I'm wrong then they'll sputter again making it hard for him.

ADP - this won't be popular, but he had 411 touches last year in 17 games and he's not one to shy from contact. Plus, this team isn't getting better.

I'm going to have Arian, Lynch, and Morris on a lot of my teams this year.

 

[jsharlan]

Hillarious to me that Foster (so far) is considered the 3rd most likely to FALL OUT OF THE TOP 10. The guy has been nothing short of Superman and has constantly been the target of people trying to bring him down. When he first came on, SO many people wouldn't accept it. Then the next year it's like "well....let's see it again". Then coming off last season, people are now concerned with his age ? (26) and pointing to diminishing ypc? Did no one else happen to notice that the 0-line played piss poor last year or that Foster led the NFL in TDs at the position? He's also overused though? But that doesn't apply to a guy like Peterson who has been run into the ground at the same clip I guess.

I don't want to flood the thread with talk about any particular player and arguing one side or the other and I'm not saying Foster is the #1 back or anything but, at the same time, given his track record, it just perplexes me that a guy with a 3-year track record like he has gets put OUT of the top ten and is replaced by people in far less solid offensive situations, have far less track records themselves, or a combo of the two.

Unless we are predicting injury across the field, Foster isn't falling out of the top 10 in any type of scoring league.

I agree with this, anyone who watched the Texans play should have seen that the right side of the line failed miserably. In the ZBS, Foster has to wait for those stretch plays to develop and read the cutback lane, but when the line is terrible there is no cutback lane. The only thing that lends credence to him dropping out is that the Texans didn't do much to address the right side of the line so he could be in for a repeat of the problem.

 

[Bayhawks]

Hillarious to me that Foster (so far) is considered the 3rd most likely to FALL OUT OF THE TOP 10. The guy has been nothing short of Superman and has constantly been the target of people trying to bring him down. When he first came on, SO many people wouldn't accept it. Then the next year it's like "well....let's see it again". Then coming off last season, people are now concerned with his age ? (26) and pointing to diminishing ypc? Did no one else happen to notice that the 0-line played piss poor last year or that Foster led the NFL in TDs at the position? He's also overused though? But that doesn't apply to a guy like Peterson who has been run into the ground at the same clip I guess.

I don't want to flood the thread with talk about any particular player and arguing one side or the other and I'm not saying Foster is the #1 back or anything but, at the same time, given his track record, it just perplexes me that a guy with a 3-year track record like he has gets put OUT of the top ten and is replaced by people in far less solid offensive situations, have far less track records themselves, or a combo of the two.

Unless we are predicting injury across the field, Foster isn't falling out of the top 10 in any type of scoring league.

Foster has had a HUGE number of touches the last 3 years. Counting the playoffs, he has touched the ball 1242 times (carries + receptions) since 2010. That's an average of 414 touches/year. Last year, he had 460 touches. The poll was which five top-10 RBs do you think could drop out of the top 10 in 2013. It's perfectly reasonable to predict Foster (especially as the 5th back out) with his high volume of touches as your main reason. You don't have to "predict injury across the field." The main reason RBs typically have shorter careers than WRs and QBs is because of the amount of damage their bodies take, so looking at the amount of damage Foster has taken the last few years compared to some of the other top-10 RBs (and those who might break into the top-10), one could very easily assume all those hits will add up, and result in a season outside of the top-10.

 

[Bayhawks]

This is a tough guessing game every year. I wanted to vote for Martin because I don't think his talent is even close to his stats, but his situation is just too good. Also was tempted to vote for Charles because I'm always squeamish on him, but I think Reid's offense will be great for him and, like Martin, he has absolutely no one close to starter caliber backing him up. I don't think either guy even has an NFL RB2 caliber backup, actually.

So I went with:

Rice - he won't get nearly the receptions he got with Cameron; Pierce actually looks like a better runner (I expect a better ypc than Rice) so I think he loses quite a few carries to him

Spiller - looked electric in Gailey's offense, but now he's got a new offense and a rookie QB

Ridley - wasn't a very good goal line runner, I think he comes up short this year in the TD department and (again) in the receptions department

Richardson - I don't feel good about this one, but the injuries have to be a concern. I feel like the offense could get on track this year so he could explode, but if I'm wrong then they'll sputter again making it hard for him.

ADP - this won't be popular, but he had 411 touches last year in 17 games and he's not one to shy from contact. Plus, this team isn't getting better.

I'm going to have Arian, Lynch, and Morris on a lot of my teams this year.

My list looks almost exactly like yours, except replace ADP with Foster as the 5th back out.

Foster had more touches (and more touches/game) than ADP in 2012. I don't see Houston getting any better either. And while Houston is better than Minny, the same was true last year. Foster is already hurt, and he has a back-up who has proven he can fill in when needed, so Houston might lessen Foster's load/give him more time to recover from injuries/dings/tweaks, etc So:

Foster-more touches than ADP

Foster-did worse on a better team than ADP

Foster-team didn't improve any more than ADP's

Foster-already hurt

Foster-a better caliber back-up than ADP

That's why I went with Foster over ADP, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both end up as top-10 RBs again.

 

[Warrior]

Hillarious to me that Foster (so far) is considered the 3rd most likely to FALL OUT OF THE TOP 10. The guy has been nothing short of Superman and has constantly been the target of people trying to bring him down. When he first came on, SO many people wouldn't accept it. Then the next year it's like "well....let's see it again". Then coming off last season, people are now concerned with his age ? (26) and pointing to diminishing ypc? Did no one else happen to notice that the 0-line played piss poor last year or that Foster led the NFL in TDs at the position? He's also overused though? But that doesn't apply to a guy like Peterson who has been run into the ground at the same clip I guess.

I don't want to flood the thread with talk about any particular player and arguing one side or the other and I'm not saying Foster is the #1 back or anything but, at the same time, given his track record, it just perplexes me that a guy with a 3-year track record like he has gets put OUT of the top ten and is replaced by people in far less solid offensive situations, have far less track records themselves, or a combo of the two.

Unless we are predicting injury across the field, Foster isn't falling out of the top 10 in any type of scoring league.

I think the Texans wouldn't miss a beat if/when Ben Tate steps in. Foster is very good, but more than anything, I'd say he's a product of the ZBS and tremendous o-line play in Houston. Yes, the O-line wasn't up to their usual dominance last season, but they're still elite.

For me, Foster is one of the top candidates to drop out of the top 10. Tate is one of the top candidates to jump into the top 10.

 

[We Tigers]

Surprised to see Spiller viewed so confidently as compared to the others--he's currently ranked aa the 4th most likely to stay in the top 10. A potentially unsustainable YPC from last year, probably a rookie QB all year--I see a fair amount of downside, and certainly more than with steady all-stars like Foster and Lynch, both of whom he's leading.

 

[Tanner9919]

the 5 I voted out:

Ray Rice

CJ Spiller

Ridley -although I'm not happy about it..

Lynch

Richardson

I can't see Richardson getting back there, even if he plays a full 16 games..he simply wasn't impressive last year, 3.6 ypc avg isn't very good..

those that might crack the top 10 this year:

David Wilson

M. Ingram - a long shot, but still...

Chris Johnson

D. Richardson - someone from St Louis is going to run the ball.a lot.

D. McFadden - can he put together a full season for once? reminds me of Robert Smith - people wrote him off only to have him lead the league in rushing one year..

 

[Shutout]

Hillarious to me that Foster (so far) is considered the 3rd most likely to FALL OUT OF THE TOP 10. The guy has been nothing short of Superman and has constantly been the target of people trying to bring him down. When he first came on, SO many people wouldn't accept it. Then the next year it's like "well....let's see it again". Then coming off last season, people are now concerned with his age ? (26) and pointing to diminishing ypc? Did no one else happen to notice that the 0-line played piss poor last year or that Foster led the NFL in TDs at the position? He's also overused though? But that doesn't apply to a guy like Peterson who has been run into the ground at the same clip I guess.

I don't want to flood the thread with talk about any particular player and arguing one side or the other and I'm not saying Foster is the #1 back or anything but, at the same time, given his track record, it just perplexes me that a guy with a 3-year track record like he has gets put OUT of the top ten and is replaced by people in far less solid offensive situations, have far less track records themselves, or a combo of the two.

Unless we are predicting injury across the field, Foster isn't falling out of the top 10 in any type of scoring league.

I think the Texans wouldn't miss a beat if/when Ben Tate steps in. Foster is very good, but more than anything, I'd say he's a product of the ZBS and tremendous o-line play in Houston. Yes, the O-line wasn't up to their usual dominance last season, but they're still elite.

For me, Foster is one of the top candidates to drop out of the top 10. Tate is one of the top candidates to jump into the top 10.

Again, not here to turn it into a "is/is not" thread but this idea of Tate just as good as Foster on this team has been beat to death and for those of us who have watched every single Texans game over this period, it is pretty universally clear that Tate is nowhere near as dynamic as Foster across the board as Foster is.

A lot of people see Tate come into these games and break off a nice run. He does. And he is a terrific inside runner and better than Foster in that capacity. But when you talk about the whole picture (the receiving, the design of the plays that don't go straight up the gut) and you consider that Tate is usually the closer; he gets these teams after Foster has bludgeoned them, its nowhere close. It just isn't.

Anyway, to the topic at hand. My only real point in this is, I think people try a bit too hard to downplay Foster and find fault. Its like, since he wasn't lauded and ushered into the league, people just can't buy into it. But the reality is that he has been nothing short of spectacular for 3 years. People want to nitpick excessive carries and ypc, etc, but the one and only thing that matters is that he has consistently had this type of workload and he has finished somewhere between #1-#5 each and every year. Father time catches them all but he is 26. I think for a professional athlete, it is not unreasonable to think that a guy who has trained and played the sport all his life, and has had the success he has had, can put together a handful of good years.

 

[donkshow]

The way Foster trains leads me to believe he could be elite for another few years.

Tbh, I don't know if I see 5 falling out of the top 10, except for injuries. Though if I had to choose itd be: Rice, Lynch, Morris, Spiller and Ridley.

 

[gandalas]

I'm assuming for the sake of argument that all of them stay healthy. The three that im worried about could miss the top ten due to lack of touches for one reason or another.

1st. Rice, I think we all agree that he is definitely a top ten runner but I saw him get pulled more and more last year in a variety of situations. whether to keep him fresh and prolong his career or whatever, if he gets into a 60 40 split he could easily land in the teens through no fault of his own.

Lynch could be sitting in the Poky halfway through the season or just plain suspended for driving all sauced. And there's no question he is the man, but they did just add another talented runner with a high pick. I kinda get the feeling the sea-hawks are preparing for something we all see coming.

And T-Rich is tough and plays through pain but he's already hurt and were not even close to training camp yet. A lot of history in those legs.

I could see anyone of these guys leading the league in Fantasy points from the running back position. But these are the three that I get little warning bells going off in my head. and if I can help it, I will avoid when looking to minimize risk in the first round. Having said that, if I am sitting at the end of the first and can land any of these boys I wont even bother with a poker face. Smiling all the way .

So you are not taking injuries into account, other than with Richardson. Got it.

And "a lot of history on those legs"? He had 267 carries last year, and a total of 540 carries in college.

In comparison:

Alfred Morris: 732 carries in college, 335 last year.

Doug Martin: 617 carries in college, 319 last year

I can understand not liking him or his chances, but your two reasons why just don't make any sense with what you said.

 

[Bayhawks]

Anyway, to the topic at hand. My only real point in this is, I think people try a bit too hard to downplay Foster and find fault....But the reality is that he has been nothing short of spectacular for 3 years. People want to nitpick excessive carries and ypc, etc, but the one and only thing that matters is that he has consistently had this type of workload and he has finished somewhere between #1-#5 each and every year. Father time catches them all but he is 26. I think for a professional athlete, it is not unreasonable to think that a guy who has trained and played the sport all his life, and has had the success he has had, can put together a handful of good years.

This is a thread predicting what top-10 RBs might drop out of the top-10. You're talking about the best of the best from last year, and predicting a drop in production. You HAVE to find faults, weaknesses, etc. You have to "nitpick" areas of concern. That's the point of the thread. Complaining about those things in a thread that is predicated on those things is like getting into a pool and saying "it's too wet in here."

That being said, Larry Johnson, Chris Johnson, & MJD are just a few examples of recent RBs who had an extremely high volume of touches in a short period of time. All were professional athletes who trained and played the sport all their lives, had great success, were similar in age to what Foster is now, and dropped out of the top-10 RBs. Some dropped precipitously (LJ), some dropped slightly (Chris Johnson), but they dropped. So while you think it's not unreasonable to expect Foster to stay elite, it's also not unreasonable (nor unprecedented) to expect him to stop being elite.

 

[Gawain]

The way Foster trains leads me to believe he could be elite for another few years.

Tbh, I don't know if I see 5 falling out of the top 10, except for injuries. Though if I had to choose itd be: Rice, Lynch, Morris, Spiller and Ridley.

That's the rub. It's tough to ever picture 5 guys dropping out, but there's always more turnover than we expect.

2011:

Rice

McCoy

MJD

Foster

Lynch

Turner

Mathews

Peterson

M. Bush

Sproles

McCoy, MJD, Turner, Mathews, Bush and Sproles all dropped out.

2010:

Foster

Peterson

Charles

C. Johnson

McFadden

Mendenhall

McCoy

Turner

Forte

Rice

Charles, Johnson, McFadden, Mendenhall and Forte dropped off the list.

Bunch of different reasons for why some of these guys fell out of the top 10, some we predicted correctly and some we didn't.

 

[Tau837]

I think at least part of it is predicting injury. The reality is half the reason the yearly turnover is so high is due to injury. Of course it's nearly impossible to predict, but I would say they don't all carry equal injury risk either.

Exactly. If one can predict which ones of these guys will miss significant time due to injury (or suspension), one can come close to providing the correct answer to the OP.

 

[donkshow]

The way Foster trains leads me to believe he could be elite for another few years.

Tbh, I don't know if I see 5 falling out of the top 10, except for injuries. Though if I had to choose itd be: Rice, Lynch, Morris, Spiller and Ridley.

That's the rub. It's tough to ever picture 5 guys dropping out, but there's always more turnover than we expect.

2011:

Rice

McCoy

MJD

Foster

Lynch

Turner

Mathews

Peterson

M. Bush

Sproles

McCoy, MJD, Turner, Mathews, Bush and Sproles all dropped out.

2010:

Foster

Peterson

Charles

C. Johnson

McFadden

Mendenhall

McCoy

Turner

Forte

Rice

Charles, Johnson, McFadden, Mendenhall and Forte dropped off the list.

Bunch of different reasons for why some of these guys fell out of the top 10, some we predicted correctly and some we didn't.

I agree that the turnover will happen, but to try to predict without using injuries is impossible simply for the fact that most of the turnover in past years is directly linked to injuries.

 

[zamboni]

I would agree that the year-to-year turnover probably relates to injuries more than anything, but taking the injury factor out I would focus on guys that are (1) not heavily involved in the passing game; (2) have some risk of RBBC; and/or (3) have some signs of a declining offense from the previous year

Given that, these are my picks:

Ridley - doesn't catch the ball much and with the injuries/offseason turmoil, I think the offense takes a step back; plus I think Vereen will be a bigger factor this year

Morris - also not heavily used in the passing game, and may just have had an out-of-nowhere spectacular season; few Shanahan RBs outside of Portis have had multiple big years

Lynch - heavy use last several years, may be spelled more often than not; Carroll may unleash Wilson a bit more this year

Rice - still an elite talent, but wouldn't surprise me to see a more liberal use of Pierce to keep Ray fresh for another playoff run

Spiller - I doubt FJax eats into CJ's workload that much, but don't see a strong offense with either Manuel or Kolb at the helm

 

[GeeYouknit]

I went Martin, Rice, Morris, Ridley, and because I had to pick a 5th Lynch.

I simply don't like Martin and in my view, he will be phased out completely in 2-3 years.

Rice clearly has Pierce stealing touches from him and I saw a little decline in his "special" abilities last year.

Morris just isn't involved as much as these other guys in all phases of the game.

Ridley seems to be a pretty good talent, but no other offensive weapons (Hernandez - Jail?, Gronk - Hurt?, Amendola - Hurt? and nobody else) and barely cracking the top10 last year leads me to believe he won't do it again.

Lynch just because I had to pick a 5th I can see Turbin or even Michael getting more work this year

 

[zamboni]

I went Martin, Rice, Morris, Ridley, and because I had to pick a 5th Lynch.

I simply don't like Martin and in my view, he will be phased out completely in 2-3 years.

Rice clearly has Pierce stealing touches from him and I saw a little decline in his "special" abilities last year.

Morris just isn't involved as much as these other guys in all phases of the game.

Ridley seems to be a pretty good talent, but no other offensive weapons (Hernandez - Jail?, Gronk - Hurt?, Amendola - Hurt? and nobody else) and barely cracking the top10 last year leads me to believe he won't do it again.

Lynch just because I had to pick a 5th I can see Turbin or even Michael getting more work this year

I pretty much agree with all the above, except for Martin. The guy was a top 15 NFL draft pick, had a stellar rookie season, and is the centerpiece of their offense in both the running and passing game. Only way he gets phased out is if he suffers a devastating injury(ies) a la one-time Buc phenom Cadillac Williams.

 

[RBM]

Ridley

Richardson

Lynch

Morris

Foster

First four were easy. Foster was a tough one but he's just had so much work. Now that I think of it I should've voted Spiller instead maybe.

 

[RBM]

The Pierce craze is exactly like the Tate stuff last year.

 

[zamboni]

The Pierce craze is exactly like the Tate stuff last year.

I don't think it's that much of a craze, just that Pierce proved to be very effective and may get enough touches (including goal line) to drop Rice's value enough out of the upper tier.

 

[Two Deep]

Spiller.....injury

Charles...injury

Lynch......will lean on Wilson

Morris......one trick pony

Richardson....injury

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Spiller.....injury

Charles...injury

Lynch......will lean on Wilson

Morris......one trick pony

Richardson....injury

Is this a serious post? The Seahawks were dead last in passing attempts last year. Even if you expect Wilson's game to open up (I personally do) this is a team built around a stong defense and running game. Lynch will continue to have a major role.

 

[meyerj31]

Spiller.....injury

Charles...injury

Lynch......will lean on Wilson

Morris......one trick pony

Richardson....injury

What exactly was his one-trick?

1) Number of rush attempts as a rookie? 335

2) Number of touchdowns? 13

3) Number of yards? 1687 all-purpose

4) Yards per carry? 4.8

5) Elusiveness rating? 13th in the NFL

6) Pass Blocking Efficiency:

Alfred Morris 84 pass blocking snaps, 0 hurries, 1 hit and 1 sack allowed.

PBE: 1-((1+(0.75*1))/84) = 97.9%

... which happens to rank TOP IN THE NFL. He's the best pass blocking back in the NFL, as a ROOKIE. All while putting up crazy good rushing numbers.

7) His stats during the four games when RG3 was hobbled and he wasn't relying on the read-option:

458 yards / 6 TDs

?????????????????????????????????????

Morris is the real deal ... you are nuts. And I'm not even a big fan of him or the Redskins. He did all of that as a rookie. I'm blown away that the Packers could have taken him in the 5th round. Redskins got an absolute steal taking him in the 6th. Morris is going to go down as one of the best 6th+ round picks of the past decade.

 

[kutta]

Spiller.....injury

Charles...injury

Lynch......will lean on Wilson

Morris......one trick pony

Richardson....injury

What exactly was his one-trick?

1) Number of rush attempts as a rookie? 335

2) Number of touchdowns? 13

3) Number of yards? 1687 all-purpose

4) Yards per carry? 4.8

5) Elusiveness rating? 13th in the NFL

6) Pass Blocking Efficiency:

Alfred Morris 84 pass blocking snaps, 0 hurries, 1 hit and 1 sack allowed.

PBE: 1-((1+(0.75*1))/84) = 97.9%

... which happens to rank TOP IN THE NFL. He's the best pass blocking back in the NFL, as a ROOKIE. All while putting up crazy good rushing numbers.

7) His stats during the four games when RG3 was hobbled and he wasn't relying on the read-option:

458 yards / 6 TDs

?????????????????????????????????????

Morris is the real deal ... you are nuts. And I'm not even a big fan of him or the Redskins. He did all of that as a rookie. I'm blown away that the Packers could have taken him in the 5th round. Redskins got an absolute steal taking him in the 6th. Morris is going to go down as one of the best 6th+ round picks of the past decade.

I think it's the 11 total receptions that you conveniently left off your analysis that has some of us concerned.

 

[EBF]

Whichever get injured.

I think any of them could fall out. If I had to pick the most likely I guess I'd say Ridley, Morris, Spiller, Foster, and Peterson.

Ridley and Morris don't catch passes.

Foster has been worked into the ground. As long as he stays healthy he will continue to produce, but 400+ carries and an ever declining YPC scare me.

Spiller is still untested in terms of his ability to handle a full workload over an extended time period. Even in college he was more of a committee type. With that being the case, he'll likely need a massive YPC and/or a high number of receptions to maintain his level. Two very realistic possibilities, but all the same I see him as a volatile proposition. Lots of upside. Also some risk.

 

[Leonidas]

I had a hard time selecting half from the list, but I voted:

Trent: Nagging injuries seem to continually hold him back.

Ridley: How the offense will run is unpredictable, I expect more of Vereen.

Spiller: He has a very good Fred Jackson behind him and I worry about his durability. Admittedly he hasn't really given me a good reason for that worry.

Morris: I think his touches come back down to earth and another RB, perhaps Helu, gets a share. Shanahan.

Rice: I didn't really want to vote for him, but had to pick five. I think Pierce takes him out of the likely-top-5 group, but not out of the top 10.

As I think about it more, I think I should vote McCoy over Rice. I don't know how productive that offense will be, how exactly how many touches we can expect him to get.

I didn't vote Peterson because he is superhuman; Martin because he is clearly THE MAN with a great and improved run blocking line and a passing game good enough to take a lot of pressure off him but not so good that it runs the show; Foster because even with Tate cutting in I think he still gets enough touches, yards, and TD's to stay in the top 10 (but not 5 necessarily); McCoy I mentioned above; Lynch because of the team's dedication to him in the ground game and because he is a beast; Charles because he is a proven producer who is in line to get plenty of touches.

 

[JPeso]

Whichever get injured.

I think any of them could fall out. If I had to pick the most likely I guess I'd say Ridley, Morris, Spiller, Foster, and Peterson.

Ridley and Morris don't catch passes.

Foster has been worked into the ground. As long as he stays healthy he will continue to produce, but 400+ carries and an ever declining YPC scare me.

Spiller is still untested in terms of his ability to handle a full workload over an extended time period. Even in college he was more of a committee type. With that being the case, he'll likely need a massive YPC and/or a high number of receptions to maintain his level. Two very realistic possibilities, but all the same I see him as a volatile proposition. Lots of upside. Also some risk.

Just appreciate CJ for once! He's a horse!

 

[hotboyz]

My question if we all kno 50% of the top 10 RBS are gonna bust why are so many RB going in the 1st rd don't you wanna draft with better odds? So why not draft another position especial from middle of draft back?

 

[Gawain]

My question if we all kno 50% of the top 10 RBS are gonna bust why are so many RB going in the 1st rd don't you wanna draft with better odds? So why not draft another position especial from middle of draft back?

Because we don't know which RBs are going to bust.

 

[EBF]

Whichever get injured.

I think any of them could fall out. If I had to pick the most likely I guess I'd say Ridley, Morris, Spiller, Foster, and Peterson.

Ridley and Morris don't catch passes.

Foster has been worked into the ground. As long as he stays healthy he will continue to produce, but 400+ carries and an ever declining YPC scare me.

Spiller is still untested in terms of his ability to handle a full workload over an extended time period. Even in college he was more of a committee type. With that being the case, he'll likely need a massive YPC and/or a high number of receptions to maintain his level. Two very realistic possibilities, but all the same I see him as a volatile proposition. Lots of upside. Also some risk.

Just appreciate CJ for once! He's a horse!

No doubt he has a lot of talent.

He has never been a high volume back though. Here are his carries per season dating back to his Clemson days:

2006 - 129

2007 - 145

2008 - 116

2009 - 216

================

2010 - 74

2011 - 107

2012 - 207

One way to look at this is that he's a dynamic talent with a huge upside if he gets more touches.

Another way to look at this is that he's more of a committee back who might not be cut out for a massive workload. Right or wrong, his coaches have never been inclined to feed him the ball. He's only 196 pounds stretched across a 5'10"+ frame. That hasn't held back Chris Johnson, but until he actually gets the chances it's tough to say how he would respond.

 

[hotboyz]

My question if we all kno 50% of the top 10 RBS are gonna bust why are so many RB going in the 1st rd don't you wanna draft with better odds? So why not draft another position especial from middle of draft back?

Because we don't know which RBs are going to bust.

Even more reason to draft a different position odds say about 6-8 RB that finish top 20 get drafted outside the top 20. You also kno QB tend to repeat there success better TE as well so if the odds are better for you to get a return on ya investment by drafting a different position shouldn't you play the better odds?

 

[jurb26]

What's interesting about this poll is you can also gather which guys are recognized as the "safest" RBs this year. Peterson and Charles are well ahead in that category as they have the least amount of votes by a pretty wide margin. After them, Martin comes in and after Martin it's a cluster.

 

[FF Ninja]

This is a tough guessing game every year. I wanted to vote for Martin because I don't think his talent is even close to his stats, but his situation is just too good. Also was tempted to vote for Charles because I'm always squeamish on him, but I think Reid's offense will be great for him and, like Martin, he has absolutely no one close to starter caliber backing him up. I don't think either guy even has an NFL RB2 caliber backup, actually.

So I went with:

Rice - he won't get nearly the receptions he got with Cameron; Pierce actually looks like a better runner (I expect a better ypc than Rice) so I think he loses quite a few carries to him

Spiller - looked electric in Gailey's offense, but now he's got a new offense and a rookie QB

Ridley - wasn't a very good goal line runner, I think he comes up short this year in the TD department and (again) in the receptions department

Richardson - I don't feel good about this one, but the injuries have to be a concern. I feel like the offense could get on track this year so he could explode, but if I'm wrong then they'll sputter again making it hard for him.

ADP - this won't be popular, but he had 411 touches last year in 17 games and he's not one to shy from contact. Plus, this team isn't getting better.

I'm going to have Arian, Lynch, and Morris on a lot of my teams this year.

My list looks almost exactly like yours, except replace ADP with Foster as the 5th back out.

Foster had more touches (and more touches/game) than ADP in 2012. I don't see Houston getting any better either. And while Houston is better than Minny, the same was true last year. Foster is already hurt, and he has a back-up who has proven he can fill in when needed, so Houston might lessen Foster's load/give him more time to recover from injuries/dings/tweaks, etc So:

Foster-more touches than ADP

Foster-did worse on a better team than ADP

Foster-team didn't improve any more than ADP's

Foster-already hurt

Foster-a better caliber back-up than ADP

That's why I went with Foster over ADP, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both end up as top-10 RBs again.

I agree with some of that, but I can't help but feel like the extra touches for Foster are balanced out by age and lower career touches.

The right side of Houston's line was atrocious last year. They lost two guys that I think were pro bowlers or at least that caliber and replaced them with scrubs. That part WILL get better this year and that's the most important improvement as far as Foster owners are concerned.

Hopefully the addition of Hopkins helps relieve some pressure. Not sure how the loss of Harvin is going to impact Min.

Kubiak was dreadfully predictable with his (over)use of the run game and it made it easy for the defense.

One thing about Kubiak that alleviates Tate's impact is that Kubes is loyal to a fault. As a Houston fan, I'd like to see a 60/40 split, but that just won't happen. Also, he absolutely feeds Foster at the goal line and that won't change. How often do you think Minnesota is going to be near the goal line next year?

 

[FF Ninja]

The way Foster trains leads me to believe he could be elite for another few years.

Tbh, I don't know if I see 5 falling out of the top 10, except for injuries. Though if I had to choose itd be: Rice, Lynch, Morris, Spiller and Ridley.

That's the rub. It's tough to ever picture 5 guys dropping out, but there's always more turnover than we expect.

2011:

Rice

McCoy

MJD

Foster

Lynch

Turner

Mathews

Peterson

M. Bush

Sproles

McCoy, MJD, Turner, Mathews, Bush and Sproles all dropped out.

2010:

Foster

Peterson

Charles

C. Johnson

McFadden

Mendenhall

McCoy

Turner

Forte

Rice

Charles, Johnson, McFadden, Mendenhall and Forte dropped off the list.

Bunch of different reasons for why some of these guys fell out of the top 10, some we predicted correctly and some we didn't.

In 2011, I think everyone and their dog knew that M.Bush, Turner, and Sproles weren't repeating and their ADPs reflected it. Mathews was the most obvious injury risk and that panned out, so I think if you'd asked people to predict 2011, everyone would've been at least 60% right.

In 2010, Charles and DMC were viewed as the top injury risks of the top 10 and... got injured. Mendenhall's career trajectory was headed straight for the crapper before he tore his ACL, so I think he was obvious. Chris Johnson was trending downwards and gaining a lot of detractors. This one was definitely a bit tougher than 2011.

 

[gandalas]

I went Martin, Rice, Morris, Ridley, and because I had to pick a 5th Lynch.

I simply don't like Martin and in my view, he will be phased out completely in 2-3 years.

Rice clearly has Pierce stealing touches from him and I saw a little decline in his "special" abilities last year.

Morris just isn't involved as much as these other guys in all phases of the game.

Ridley seems to be a pretty good talent, but no other offensive weapons (Hernandez - Jail?, Gronk - Hurt?, Amendola - Hurt? and nobody else) and barely cracking the top10 last year leads me to believe he won't do it again.

Lynch just because I had to pick a 5th I can see Turbin or even Michael getting more work this year

I pretty much agree with all the above, except for Martin. The guy was a top 15 NFL draft pick, had a stellar rookie season, and is the centerpiece of their offense in both the running and passing game. Only way he gets phased out is if he suffers a devastating injury(ies) a la one-time Buc phenom Cadillac Williams.

Martin was picked #31. I definitely don't think he will be phased out either, but no need to exaggerate his draft stock for whatever reason.

 

[jurb26]

I went Martin, Rice, Morris, Ridley, and because I had to pick a 5th Lynch.

I simply don't like Martin and in my view, he will be phased out completely in 2-3 years.

Rice clearly has Pierce stealing touches from him and I saw a little decline in his "special" abilities last year.

Morris just isn't involved as much as these other guys in all phases of the game.

Ridley seems to be a pretty good talent, but no other offensive weapons (Hernandez - Jail?, Gronk - Hurt?, Amendola - Hurt? and nobody else) and barely cracking the top10 last year leads me to believe he won't do it again.

Lynch just because I had to pick a 5th I can see Turbin or even Michael getting more work this year

I pretty much agree with all the above, except for Martin. The guy was a top 15 NFL draft pick, had a stellar rookie season, and is the centerpiece of their offense in both the running and passing game. Only way he gets phased out is if he suffers a devastating injury(ies) a la one-time Buc phenom Cadillac Williams.

Martin was picked #31. I definitely don't think he will be phased out either, but no need to exaggerate his draft stock for whatever reason.

As a guy who was lower on Martin as a prospect/rookie I certainly understand some of the hesitation with him. I fully expected Wilson and Miller to be better NFL players than Martin, I suppose they still could be. None the less, I swallowed my pride and took him in one of my dynasty leagues with pick 1.02 because in the end, ADPs don't lie. They at the very least suggest fair market value and I envisioned being able to move Martin later down the road. Once it became clear he was going to be given the keys to the TB offense I figured I'd hold even longer to see what he really can do. Don't get me wrong, it's not that I didn't like him as a player. I just didn't like him as much as a few other guys and he never struck me as special in any way.

Well for one reason or another I just kept holding and holding with Martin. I guess mainly because nobody was knocking at the door for him and I just got complacent with him on my roster. What started happening though is I started to go out of my way to watch TB games and really get a better sense for his ability. GB the NFL package on Directv! It wasn't until then that I really started to appreciate how good Martin is. He reads blocks and sees the hole much better than I was anticipating. He has better explosiveness and speed than I was expecting. He breaks more tackles and catches the ball better than I was expecting. Basically, he was much better than I was expecting. This of course made me very happy I didn't rush to trade him! There is nothing flashy about him and he will not give you visions of Barry Sanders or Peterson. He's more a mix between Ray Rice and Frank Gore IMO. He's just good at everything and very good at some things like; balance, leg drive and vision.

The point is I think many who are still down on Martin simply haven't seen enough of him to appreciate him. His college tape was ok, but nothing spectacular. He's turned out to be much better than I would have thought and that college film would suggest IMO. Now, he's pretty much a consensus top 3 RB in all dynasty rankings. Most places have him #2 behind only Richardson. With the additions he will receive on the oline this year and his skill set I just find it highly unlikely he doesn't post another great, top 10 season.

 

[zamboni]

I went Martin, Rice, Morris, Ridley, and because I had to pick a 5th Lynch.

I simply don't like Martin and in my view, he will be phased out completely in 2-3 years.

Rice clearly has Pierce stealing touches from him and I saw a little decline in his "special" abilities last year.

Morris just isn't involved as much as these other guys in all phases of the game.

Ridley seems to be a pretty good talent, but no other offensive weapons (Hernandez - Jail?, Gronk - Hurt?, Amendola - Hurt? and nobody else) and barely cracking the top10 last year leads me to believe he won't do it again.

Lynch just because I had to pick a 5th I can see Turbin or even Michael getting more work this year

I pretty much agree with all the above, except for Martin. The guy was a top 15 NFL draft pick, had a stellar rookie season, and is the centerpiece of their offense in both the running and passing game. Only way he gets phased out is if he suffers a devastating injury(ies) a la one-time Buc phenom Cadillac Williams.

Martin was picked #31. I definitely don't think he will be phased out either, but no need to exaggerate his draft stock for whatever reason.

My bad - forgot he was taken late 1st, but my contention still remains.

 

[Bayhawks]

This is a tough guessing game every year. I wanted to vote for Martin because I don't think his talent is even close to his stats, but his situation is just too good. Also was tempted to vote for Charles because I'm always squeamish on him, but I think Reid's offense will be great for him and, like Martin, he has absolutely no one close to starter caliber backing him up. I don't think either guy even has an NFL RB2 caliber backup, actually.

So I went with:

Rice - he won't get nearly the receptions he got with Cameron; Pierce actually looks like a better runner (I expect a better ypc than Rice) so I think he loses quite a few carries to him

Spiller - looked electric in Gailey's offense, but now he's got a new offense and a rookie QB

Ridley - wasn't a very good goal line runner, I think he comes up short this year in the TD department and (again) in the receptions department

Richardson - I don't feel good about this one, but the injuries have to be a concern. I feel like the offense could get on track this year so he could explode, but if I'm wrong then they'll sputter again making it hard for him.

ADP - this won't be popular, but he had 411 touches last year in 17 games and he's not one to shy from contact. Plus, this team isn't getting better.

I'm going to have Arian, Lynch, and Morris on a lot of my teams this year.

My list looks almost exactly like yours, except replace ADP with Foster as the 5th back out.

Foster had more touches (and more touches/game) than ADP in 2012. I don't see Houston getting any better either. And while Houston is better than Minny, the same was true last year. Foster is already hurt, and he has a back-up who has proven he can fill in when needed, so Houston might lessen Foster's load/give him more time to recover from injuries/dings/tweaks, etc So:

Foster-more touches than ADP

Foster-did worse on a better team than ADP

Foster-team didn't improve any more than ADP's

Foster-already hurt

Foster-a better caliber back-up than ADP

That's why I went with Foster over ADP, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both end up as top-10 RBs again.

I agree with some of that, but I can't help but feel like the extra touches for Foster are balanced out by age and lower career touches.

The right side of Houston's line was atrocious last year. They lost two guys that I think were pro bowlers or at least that caliber and replaced them with scrubs. That part WILL get better this year and that's the most important improvement as far as Foster owners are concerned.

Hopefully the addition of Hopkins helps relieve some pressure. Not sure how the loss of Harvin is going to impact Min.

Kubiak was dreadfully predictable with his (over)use of the run game and it made it easy for the defense.

One thing about Kubiak that alleviates Tate's impact is that Kubes is loyal to a fault. As a Houston fan, I'd like to see a 60/40 split, but that just won't happen. Also, he absolutely feeds Foster at the goal line and that won't change. How often do you think Minnesota is going to be near the goal line next year?

Agree that the Houston O-line should be better. However, the Minny O-line is pretty good. Rotoworld has them ranked 7th, Footballguys has them ranked #3 (Texans are ranked 12 and 2, respectively).

Agreed that Foster has fewer touches and that he is younger, however, he's only 1.5 years younger than Peterson, and Peterson is only 28. I don't see the age being a huge factor. If Peterson was 30, maybe I'd be concerned, but especially considering his fitness, work ethic (as evidenced by his rehab from the ACL injury), I don't see Peterson fading away just yet.

Also, my concern with Tate is not that Kubiak will begin to employ a 60/40 split, but that if Foster tweaks his hammy, or turns his ankle, he might sit out since Tate is capable of filling in at a similar level. If Peterson has to sit, Gerhart doesn't seem to be as capable of replicating what Peterson provides. I think the Vikings would be more inclined to have Peterson play in those situations than the Houstons would with Foster.

 

[We Tigers]

My question if we all kno 50% of the top 10 RBS are gonna bust why are so many RB going in the 1st rd don't you wanna draft with better odds? So why not draft another position especial from middle of draft back?

By picking from last year's top ten RBs, you *are** drafting with better odds. Pick blindly from last year's top ten, and history suggests you'll get a top 10 back this year about half the time. That means there are 5 top ten slots available for the rest of the 50 or so backs that will be taken in an average league. Pick blindly from that group, and your chances of getting a top 10 back are more like 1 in 9 or 1 in 10. Scarce assets are valuable.

 

[jurb26]

My question if we all kno 50% of the top 10 RBS are gonna bust why are so many RB going in the 1st rd don't you wanna draft with better odds? So why not draft another position especial from middle of draft back?

By picking from last year's top ten RBs, you *are** drafting with better odds. Pick blindly from last year's top ten, and history suggests you'll get a top 10 back this year about half the time. That means there are 5 top ten slots available for the rest of the 50 or so backs that will be taken in an average league. Pick blindly from that group, and your chances of getting a top 10 back are more like 1 in 9 or 1 in 10. Scarce assets are valuable.

Not only that, but it's not like the 5 who drop out of the top 10 die. More than likely those guys are still top 20 RBs, just that they were surpassed by other guys. Or, they were performing like top 10 guys for X amount of week but got injured.

 

[Biabreakable]

What's interesting about this poll is you can also gather which guys are recognized as the "safest" RBs this year. Peterson and Charles are well ahead in that category as they have the least amount of votes by a pretty wide margin. After them, Martin comes in and after Martin it's a cluster.

Agreed. Very nice poll idea Gawain.

When I voted I only had Morris and Ridley as guys I felt could fall out of top 10 and even with them I see reasons for them not to. It was difficult to pick 5 players. Some years I think this would be easier. I like most of the players on this list to be able to finish top 10.

 

[hotboyz]

Going thru my league stats the last 3 yr about 6-7 RBS drop out the top 20 each yr that's a lot of turnover at the position

 

[EBF]

I went Martin, Rice, Morris, Ridley, and because I had to pick a 5th Lynch.

I simply don't like Martin and in my view, he will be phased out completely in 2-3 years.

Rice clearly has Pierce stealing touches from him and I saw a little decline in his "special" abilities last year.

Morris just isn't involved as much as these other guys in all phases of the game.

Ridley seems to be a pretty good talent, but no other offensive weapons (Hernandez - Jail?, Gronk - Hurt?, Amendola - Hurt? and nobody else) and barely cracking the top10 last year leads me to believe he won't do it again.

Lynch just because I had to pick a 5th I can see Turbin or even Michael getting more work this year

I pretty much agree with all the above, except for Martin. The guy was a top 15 NFL draft pick, had a stellar rookie season, and is the centerpiece of their offense in both the running and passing game. Only way he gets phased out is if he suffers a devastating injury(ies) a la one-time Buc phenom Cadillac Williams.

Martin was picked #31. I definitely don't think he will be phased out either, but no need to exaggerate his draft stock for whatever reason.

As a guy who was lower on Martin as a prospect/rookie I certainly understand some of the hesitation with him. I fully expected Wilson and Miller to be better NFL players than Martin, I suppose they still could be. None the less, I swallowed my pride and took him in one of my dynasty leagues with pick 1.02 because in the end, ADPs don't lie. They at the very least suggest fair market value and I envisioned being able to move Martin later down the road. Once it became clear he was going to be given the keys to the TB offense I figured I'd hold even longer to see what he really can do. Don't get me wrong, it's not that I didn't like him as a player. I just didn't like him as much as a few other guys and he never struck me as special in any way.

Well for one reason or another I just kept holding and holding with Martin. I guess mainly because nobody was knocking at the door for him and I just got complacent with him on my roster. What started happening though is I started to go out of my way to watch TB games and really get a better sense for his ability. GB the NFL package on Directv! It wasn't until then that I really started to appreciate how good Martin is. He reads blocks and sees the hole much better than I was anticipating. He has better explosiveness and speed than I was expecting. He breaks more tackles and catches the ball better than I was expecting. Basically, he was much better than I was expecting. This of course made me very happy I didn't rush to trade him! There is nothing flashy about him and he will not give you visions of Barry Sanders or Peterson. He's more a mix between Ray Rice and Frank Gore IMO. He's just good at everything and very good at some things like; balance, leg drive and vision.

The point is I think many who are still down on Martin simply haven't seen enough of him to appreciate him. His college tape was ok, but nothing spectacular. He's turned out to be much better than I would have thought and that college film would suggest IMO. Now, he's pretty much a consensus top 3 RB in all dynasty rankings. Most places have him #2 behind only Richardson. With the additions he will receive on the oline this year and his skill set I just find it highly unlikely he doesn't post another great, top 10 season.

Martin was looking dirty by the end of his college career. I remember every time I watched him he seemed to get better.

I think because his playing style is more versatile than just pure speed or quickness he doesn't stand out as much as some of the smaller, faster backs that catch the eye.

But everything points towards him being a bankable RB1 for the foreseeable future.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I was only man enough to pick 4: Ridley, Lynch, Morris and Rice. I can't vote for T-Rich. He has no talent behind him. No 3rd-down back or short yardage back to take away carries and the schedule isn't that bad. If I had to pick I would say Charles. Any sign of a Knile Davis breakout and he's a low end RB1 for me like Rice with Pierce earning 30% or more of the snaps.