Which is more likely? (1 Viewer)

[wikkidpissah]

curious

 

[dkp993]

I personally think this election is a toss up so it’s a pretty clear answer for me, but under 40% is a near impossibility imo.  If 140mil turn out to vote (assuming a larger turnout then ‘16) that would make it at least a 84m to 56m win for Biden.  +28m.  No way. 

 

[Roy L Fewks]

35% chance Trump is re-elected.

0% chance he gets less than 40% of the popular vote.

In my opinion.

 

[Thunderlips]

Even Dukakis and Mondale got over 40% 

No way Trump gets under 40%.  

 

[Kal El]

Trump will clear 40%, the last guy who didn't was Bush 41.

 

[AAABatteries]

35% chance Trump is re-elected.

0% chance he gets less than 40% of the popular vote.

In my opinion.

This is about where I am, although I'm a little more pessimistic about his chances.  I put it closer to 15%.

 

[Marauder]

15% chance Trump is re-elected

1% chance he gets less than 40% of the popular vote.

 

[Murph]

No way Trump gets < 40%. In this day and age no way any major party presidential candidate gets < 40% without a serious third party challenger. Better question would be Trump win or Biden > 375 EC votes. I'd still vote Trump win in that scenario but EC is at least in the realm of possibility.

 

[Joe Summer]

My prediction:

Biden 52.4%

Trump 44.1%

 

[Leroy Hoard]

43.7%

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

55-43 is my prediction. I would put Trump's chances at under 40 at around 10%. I don't think his chances to win are 1%