Which play would you prefer (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Ignore teams playing and score.

There's no outs, runners on 1st and 3rd. Your hitter can do one of the following:

1) Hit into a double play but score a run. There are now 2 outs in the inning and no baserunners

or

2) Strikeout. There is only 1 out in the inning and still 2 baserunners on base.

Which is a better play for your team in a vacuum? You can assume competent hitters coming up to bat for next 2-3 hitters.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I'm always taking the run.

 

[gianmarco]

I'm always taking the run.

Always? While this was meant in a general sense, I can think of scenarios pretty easily where one would clearly be preferred to the other. Down 2 in the 9th, you'd go with the RBI double play?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I'm always taking the run.

Always? While this was meant in a general sense, I can think of scenarios pretty easily where one would clearly be preferred to the other. Down 2 in the 9th, you'd go with the RBI double play?

Ignore teams playing and score.

I answered based on this.

 

[gianmarco]

I'm always taking the run.

Always? While this was meant in a general sense, I can think of scenarios pretty easily where one would clearly be preferred to the other. Down 2 in the 9th, you'd go with the RBI double play?

Ignore teams playing and score.

I answered based on this.

Fair enough. I thought you meant that it wasn't close as you'd always take the run, even ignoring situation. Good job me reading more into it I wonder what the %'s are for scoring 1 or more runs with 1 out and those runners vs. scoring with bases empty and 2 outs.

 

[Eephus]

No RBI is awarded on a GIDP

 

[pantagrapher]

Fair enough. I thought you meant that it wasn't close as you'd always take the run, even ignoring situation. Good job me reading more into it

I wonder what the %'s are for scoring 1 or more runs with 1 out and those runners vs. scoring with bases empty and 2 outs.

People have calculated this.Run Expectation* for 1st and 3rd with 0 outs: 1.758

Run Expectation for 1st and 3rd with 1 out: 1.187

Run Expectation for Bases Empty with 2 outs: .099

So if you take the run you have 1 in the bag and the expectation of .099 more. If you take the strike out you have 0 in the bag and 1.187 more. So it's actually a pretty close call. On average, you would generate about .09 more runs by taking the K. But that's also the result of a long tail. You might have 2 times out of 3 that they hit into a double play and then on the third someone hits a 3-run dinger. So it does probably depend if you're playing for the 1 run or the big inning.

* They call it Run Expectation but as they note it's actually a historical average. I used the #s for the AL.

Kind of a hijack, but one of the things I've been loving about Len & Bob, the Cubs current broadcasting crew, is that they've been bringing information like this into broadcasts. They've had games devoted to discussing BABIP, WHIP, WAR, etc. And last night's game featured an extensive discussion about run expectation in different situation. Just amazing how the progress clubs have made in stressing the importance of this stuff is making its way into the booth.Oh, and I'll take the run.