Which RB will be the biggest bust? (1 Viewer)

[Snotbubbles]

I'm having trouble thinking Brian Westbrook can deliver another year like 2006. Don't know if he'll "bust", but that smells like a career year last year.

Commenting on Westbrook. Last year wasn't a fluke. The only thing stopping Westbrook is injury.

Well, Westbrook is a very talented back. And this is a very potent offense. But last year he had 50-100% more carries than in previous years where he was the undisputed starter, and 50-100% more rushing yards. His yards per carry was also up, 0.5 to 1.0 YPC better. Interestingly, his receiving numbers were just about the same as previous years.I know he got asked to carry more of the load when McNabb went down last year. And he responded fabulously. I'm just saying that those numbers were a vast improvement for him. Is his game now at a new level? Or was there a lot of circumstances that conspired to bring about a year where his numbers got inflated?*shrugs* Just guessing here. But we tend to look at last year's stats too much in this game - guys with a down year like Alexander get downgraded a lot, guys who get an uptick are assumed to now always perform at the new level.

The reason for his increased workload had more to do with Morningwheg calling the plays (which he is still doing) then with McNabb getting injured. Plus the increased workload isn't really that significant. Touches/game: 2004-19.23, 2005-18.08, 2006-21.13So even if you project a "normal" workload for Westbrook of 13.5 carries per game at 4.5 yards per carry and another 5 receptions per game at 9 yards per catch, you're still looking at: 214-972-5, 83-757-4 (1700+ yds, 9 TDs) over a 16 game season. And that's just projecting Westbrook at his average usage, even though the potential for an increased workload (with increased yards per touch) exists based on last years success.

 

[corpcow]

Laurence Maroney- I don't even know who this guy is. 1st round pick because he plays for the Patriots? Please.

I'm not commenting on his bust potential, but Maroney is not a 1st round pick "because he plays for the Patriots". Maroney was one of the most productive backs in college before he came out and Indy was targeting him as well. He set a Minnesota school record in 2005 with 1,464 rushing yards despite splitting time and finished his college career with 660 carries for 3,933 yards rushing and 32 touchdowns coming out after his junior year. He had a good rookie year despite sharing the backfield with Corey Dillon (and his 13 TDs). Now Dillon is out of the picture and Maroney is expected to carry the load in an offense that has been one of the more productive fantasy spots for a RB regardless of who they've had there.As the saying goes, fantasy success is talent plus opportunity. Maroney had the talent, and now he has an opportunity - and that's why he's a first round pick. (Especially in dynasty).

 

[perry147]

Based on their first round status in leagues, I would say:GoreMaroneyMJD (borderline 1st rounder, but people are counting on last year's #s)

Thanks - You just named by first three picks in one of my leagues this year. How do you feel about Carson Palmer this year?

 

[corpcow]

I have had a fantasy strategy that has worked year in and out. It involves taking the running back where Norv Turner was the OC. Lamont Jordan was money when Norv was there. Norv leaves and he falls to being a mediocre RB at best. Last year Frank Gore was a beast. This year he is going into the season with injuries and without Norv. I don't think he'll be absolute worthless but his numbers will not even be close to last year.

How did LaDainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, and Stephen Davis do after Norv Turner left? They were all top-10 running backs.If you seriously think that Norv Turner was the main reason why Frank Gore ran for nearly 1700 yards and had over 2100 total yards (and why he won't come close to last year's numbers) then you must not have seen him play last season.

It's also tough to compare SF's situation to Oak's last year. Their line is infinitely better and Alex Smith is making strides and certainly a major upgrade over Brooks/Walters. And they don't have Art Shell and a diner cook calling the plays.

 

[corpcow]

Based on their first round status in leagues, I would say:GoreMaroneyMJD (borderline 1st rounder, but people are counting on last year's #s)

Thanks - You just named by first three picks in one of my leagues this year. How do you feel about Carson Palmer this year?

The latter two might be reaches for a first round pick, but if you got them in the 2nd/3rd you got a steal.

 

[LBH]

Based on their first round status in leagues, I would say:GoreMaroneyMJD (borderline 1st rounder, but people are counting on last year's #s)

I noticed you didnt mention Addai

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Laurence Maroney- I don't even know who this guy is. 1st round pick because he plays for the Patriots? Please.

I'm not commenting on his bust potential, but Maroney is not a 1st round pick "because he plays for the Patriots". Maroney was one of the most productive backs in college before he came out and Indy was targeting him as well. He set a Minnesota school record in 2005 with 1,464 rushing yards despite splitting time and finished his college career with 660 carries for 3,933 yards rushing and 32 touchdowns coming out after his junior year. He had a good rookie year despite sharing the backfield with Corey Dillon (and his 13 TDs).

Now Dillon is out of the picture and Maroney is expected to carry the load in an offense that has been one of the more productive fantasy spots for a RB regardless of who they've had there.

As the saying goes, fantasy success is talent plus opportunity. Maroney had the talent, and now he has an opportunity - and that's why he's a first round pick. (Especially in dynasty).

I understand why he's a first round pick. People think that he could score 20 touchdowns in that offense. I haven't seen it or close to it yet from him so I'm not going to just assume he'll be a stud. Corey Dillon was a great player who later became a good player. Just because Corey Dillon played well in that offense doesn't mean that Maroney will. It doesn't mean that he won't either but a first-round pick is pretty high to risk for a player who's never rushed for 1000 yards or been among the top 25 running backs in fantasy football. They say you can't win your league in the first round but you can lose it in the first round.

 

[EBF]

Laurence Maroney- I don't even know who this guy is. 1st round pick because he plays for the Patriots? Please.

I'm not commenting on his bust potential, but Maroney is not a 1st round pick "because he plays for the Patriots". Maroney was one of the most productive backs in college before he came out and Indy was targeting him as well. He set a Minnesota school record in 2005 with 1,464 rushing yards despite splitting time and finished his college career with 660 carries for 3,933 yards rushing and 32 touchdowns coming out after his junior year. He had a good rookie year despite sharing the backfield with Corey Dillon (and his 13 TDs).

Now Dillon is out of the picture and Maroney is expected to carry the load in an offense that has been one of the more productive fantasy spots for a RB regardless of who they've had there.

As the saying goes, fantasy success is talent plus opportunity. Maroney had the talent, and now he has an opportunity - and that's why he's a first round pick. (Especially in dynasty).

I understand why he's a first round pick. People think that he could score 20 touchdowns in that offense. I haven't seen it or close to it yet from him so I'm not going to just assume he'll be a stud. Corey Dillon was a great player who later became a good player. Just because Corey Dillon played well in that offense doesn't mean that Maroney will. It doesn't mean that he won't either but a first-round pick is pretty high to risk for a player who's never rushed for 1000 yards or been among the top 25 running backs in fantasy football. They say you can't win your league in the first round but you can lose it in the first round.

Good post. I like Maroney. He's a solid player on a great team. But it's a mistake to assume that he'll be a monster. Could he have a breakout season and finish in the top 3? Absolutely. Is this guaranteed to happen? Not at all.

He was a good, but not great prospect entering the league. His rookie year was merely okay. He has a chance to be great, but he's not there yet.

 

[zamboni]

The Man with No Brain,

Clearly you haven't seen Maroney play. You're judging him based on his lack of experience. However, have you the slightest idea how well he did last year, aside from statistics? You actually see this kid run? He made Corey Dillon look like he was 90 out there. He's explosive, runs well and has all the makings of a featured back. Give this kid 20 carries a game and more RZ opportunities and you're talking about a 1st round fantasy pick without a doubt.

I'm a Bills fan living in NY, I've seen him play...

Argue your point, but at least show some class.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I'm going with Ronnie Brown here. I like absolutely nothing about Miami this year. They had a nice draft, but that impact isn't going to be felt that much this year.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I'm going with Ronnie Brown here. I like absolutely nothing about Miami this year. They had a nice draft, but that impact isn't going to be felt that much this year.

I like RB in his 3rd season. Before his injury, he was a top 10 guy easily. Now they actually have a QB. Sure Green looked crappy the other night, but he's a massive upgrade from the two guys before him.

 

[Tommy Collins]

I'm going with Ronnie Brown here. I like absolutely nothing about Miami this year. They had a nice draft, but that impact isn't going to be felt that much this year.

I like RB in his 3rd season. Before his injury, he was a top 10 guy easily. Now they actually have a QB. Sure Green looked crappy the other night, but he's a massive upgrade from the two guys before him.

I don't know if that's even true anymore. Green didn't look very good last year. Huard did much better IMO and kept the Chiefs in the running for a while. I really don't think Green has it anymore. I don't consider Ronnie Brown a bust this year because my expectations for him are very little...

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I'm going with Ronnie Brown here. I like absolutely nothing about Miami this year. They had a nice draft, but that impact isn't going to be felt that much this year.

I like RB in his 3rd season. Before his injury, he was a top 10 guy easily. Now they actually have a QB. Sure Green looked crappy the other night, but he's a massive upgrade from the two guys before him.

I don't know if that's even true anymore. Green didn't look very good last year. Huard did much better IMO and kept the Chiefs in the running for a while. I really don't think Green has it anymore. I don't consider Ronnie Brown a bust this year because my expectations for him are very little...

That's why we gamble.

 

[fantasyplayer]

Larry Johnson- 416 carries not to mention everything else going on. I'll let him be someone else's problem.

Reggie Bush- Most overrated running back in the league. Deuce is still on the team and the better Rb.

Laurence Maroney- I don't even know who this guy is. 1st round pick because he plays for the Patriots? Please.

Shaun Alexander- Give it up. It's over. Stop living in the past. You can't turn back the clock.

Wow... I couldn't disagree more with this list.Larry Johnson - Worrying about the holdout is one thing.... but the 400+ carry thing has been beaten to death. Overall, he still has low milage for his career.

Reggie Bush - Duece McCallister is the better back? Not from the Saints games I watched last year. Plus they have 2 completely different styles. Duece is a grinder... a power runner. Bush is lightning in a jar with potential to rip off a huge play at any moment. I'll take Bush. Much more upside.

Laurence Maroney - I'm not sure who's touting him as a 1st Round pick. Maybe in a 14 team league. If his shoulder can hold up, Maroney easily has the potential to be a Top 10 back in that offense.

Shaun Alexander - Guy averages 19 TDs a year for 5 straight seasons, had one injury-plaqued year... and now he's done?

Potential and Upside have killed more fantasy teams than anything else. The fact that a player hasn't done something in the past is even more reason to think he won't do it in the future. I'll always take proven players over unproven players. For where Bush and Maroney are being drafted they are unproven players at that level. That can certainly change but I wouldn't bet on it.Larry Johnson I'm not touching this season. You know why. Nothing more needs to be said about him. The Seahawks are a much different team then when Shaun Alexander was in his prime. People expecting him to play like he did even in the past are going to be disappointed. He's 30 years old (an old 30 at that). I'm not going to act like last season was just a fluke.This happens with all the great running backs. Faulk, Emmitt, Priest, TD getting drafted way too early. People just don't know when to quit living in the past. You live in the past. You die in the past.

You state that you only want to draft "proven" backs, but then state you will not be touching "proven" backs like LJ and SAlex.For the sake of discussion, what "proven" backs are/will you be targeting?

Those backs are proven but they're also not in what I believe to be the best situation this season. I've already explained why. In the first round my priorities at running back would probably be LT, SJax,Gore, Parker, Westbrook, Addai, Rudi, Henry in that order.

How is Addai any more proven than Maroney?

 

[Bears_Man2]

I'm going with Ronnie Brown here. I like absolutely nothing about Miami this year. They had a nice draft, but that impact isn't going to be felt that much this year.

I like RB in his 3rd season. Before his injury, he was a top 10 guy easily. Now they actually have a QB. Sure Green looked crappy the other night, but he's a massive upgrade from the two guys before him.

Green has a ways to go before he shows me he's an upgrade from Harrington IMO. We'll see how things go these next 3 weeks with Green. I think he's a marginal system guy in Miami that won't get the job done.I was thinking to myself who looked better this past weekend: Culpepper or T.Green....and I couldn't say Green. (And I believe Daunte fumbled 2 of the first 3 snaps if I remember correctly).

 

[gump]

Not at all. I understand what he's accomplished. I also saw a player who broke down last season. Even before he got hurt he wasn't that good. There's always a chance that he can rebound to have a good season but I don't feel that he's worth the risk(especially for where he's being drafted). Focusing too much on the past is just as bad as focusing too much on the future. I don't think that Alexander will be able to play as well as he did in previous seasons and that he is on the downside of his career.

It's all about balance. You want a player that's near their prime. You'd love to have a player that's in their prime but out of it? No sir. It's just not worth it for me.

Then how about after he got hurt?In my league...He averaged 17.5 pts/game thru the last 6 games. Over 16 games, that ends up top 5-7.

I understand the injury/age concern with SA. But it's no more of a concern to me than Addai's line, FWP's knee, Westy's various ailments, Gore's various breaks and tears, etc.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Larry Johnson- 416 carries not to mention everything else going on. I'll let him be someone else's problem.

Reggie Bush- Most overrated running back in the league. Deuce is still on the team and the better Rb.

Laurence Maroney- I don't even know who this guy is. 1st round pick because he plays for the Patriots? Please.

Shaun Alexander- Give it up. It's over. Stop living in the past. You can't turn back the clock.

Wow... I couldn't disagree more with this list.Larry Johnson - Worrying about the holdout is one thing.... but the 400+ carry thing has been beaten to death. Overall, he still has low milage for his career.

Reggie Bush - Duece McCallister is the better back? Not from the Saints games I watched last year. Plus they have 2 completely different styles. Duece is a grinder... a power runner. Bush is lightning in a jar with potential to rip off a huge play at any moment. I'll take Bush. Much more upside.

Laurence Maroney - I'm not sure who's touting him as a 1st Round pick. Maybe in a 14 team league. If his shoulder can hold up, Maroney easily has the potential to be a Top 10 back in that offense.

Shaun Alexander - Guy averages 19 TDs a year for 5 straight seasons, had one injury-plaqued year... and now he's done?

Potential and Upside have killed more fantasy teams than anything else. The fact that a player hasn't done something in the past is even more reason to think he won't do it in the future. I'll always take proven players over unproven players. For where Bush and Maroney are being drafted they are unproven players at that level. That can certainly change but I wouldn't bet on it.Larry Johnson I'm not touching this season. You know why. Nothing more needs to be said about him. The Seahawks are a much different team then when Shaun Alexander was in his prime. People expecting him to play like he did even in the past are going to be disappointed. He's 30 years old (an old 30 at that). I'm not going to act like last season was just a fluke.This happens with all the great running backs. Faulk, Emmitt, Priest, TD getting drafted way too early. People just don't know when to quit living in the past. You live in the past. You die in the past.

You state that you only want to draft "proven" backs, but then state you will not be touching "proven" backs like LJ and SAlex.For the sake of discussion, what "proven" backs are/will you be targeting?

Those backs are proven but they're also not in what I believe to be the best situation this season. I've already explained why. In the first round my priorities at running back would probably be LT, SJax,Gore, Parker, Westbrook, Addai, Rudi, Henry in that order.

How is Addai any more proven than Maroney?

He was the 11th ranked fantasy back last season. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry which is incredible. Including the playoffs he had over 360 touches. That shows me that he can be the workhorse when the Colts need him to be. So overall I've seen more from Joseph Addai than I've seen from Laurence Maroney. Addai is probably being drafted a little too high as well but I feel better with him as my number 1 guy than Maroney.

 

[Pocket Joker]

I am a HUGE Pats fan and wouldn't touch Maroney in the first round (redraft). He's going as early as 5th overall, and I just can't see him getting 20+ touches a game. His injuries (last year & current) have been downplayed, and his shoulder seems to be an issue.

Hey - I hope he is this year's Steven Jackson, I just don't see it though....

 

[kapp]

Put me down for Reggie Bush. He won't live up to expectations.

 

[zamboni]

Put me down for Reggie Bush. He won't live up to expectations.

I view Reggie as a guy that will be a terrific NFL player in terms of the way he makes defenses adjust, but may be a bit lacking from a fantasy standpoint.

 

[Sweat Hog]

Put me down for Reggie Bush. He won't live up to expectations.

While I gree Bush will not likely live up to a first round pick, I'd certainly grab him in the early second. If you watched him the second half of last season and at USC before that, you know he's got the IT factor. He's a gamer and will be a stud for many years to come.

 

[kapp]

Put me down for Reggie Bush. He won't live up to expectations.

While I gree Bush will not likely live up to a first round pick, I'd certainly grab him in the early second. If you watched him the second half of last season and at USC before that, you know he's got the IT factor. He's a gamer and will be a stud for many years to come.

MDJ was better than Bush in the second half of last season...doesn't mean I'll be taking him this year.I agree with the other post. I think he has more value in real football than fantasy. And I still don't think he'll stay in one piece if he starts running up the middle consistently, as he claims he'll do this year. I'm not sure how much running up the middle he did at USC, but I'm guessing not much. Just my opinion.

 

[davper]

If this thread lives long enough, the list eventually will include every projected Top 15 RB other than LT and Steven Jackson.

Then lets not leave them out.LT, while standing on the sidelines during a pre-season game, gets bombarded by bird s**t. A small amount lands in his ear and causes an inner ear infection that lasts for months.The rams become so effective at throwing the ball, that they call 80% passing plays. Resulting in Bulger breaking the single season TD and Yardage records.Remember, you heard it here first. Let me put on my before the flaming dog poo starts flying.

 

[cstu]

I don't get the dislike of Maroney. He was better than Dillon last year and has no competition for carries in a great offense that produced 20 rushing TD's.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

I don't get the dislike of Maroney. He was better than Dillon last year and has no competition for carries in a great offense that produced 20 rushing TD's.

Dillon last year was nothing like Dillon of old.Maroney had some nagging injuries last year, which is a definite worry.Sammy Morris and possibly Kevin Faulk are indeed competition for carries and receptions.

 

[cstu]

I am a HUGE Pats fan and wouldn't touch Maroney in the first round (redraft). He's going as early as 5th overall, and I just can't see him getting 20+ touches a game. His injuries (last year & current) have been downplayed, and his shoulder seems to be an issue. Hey - I hope he is this year's Steven Jackson, I just don't see it though....

Who else is going to get the carries? Do you think they are going to pass that much more?His shoulder is a concern but he's one of the few guys who have LT/SJax-type upside.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I don't get the dislike of Maroney. He was better than Dillon last year and has no competition for carries in a great offense that produced 20 rushing TD's.

I'm not sure where the dislike stems from but I'm guessing it has something to do with Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker and a bum shoulder.

 

[cstu]

I don't get the dislike of Maroney. He was better than Dillon last year and has no competition for carries in a great offense that produced 20 rushing TD's.

Dillon last year was nothing like Dillon of old.Maroney had some nagging injuries last year, which is a definite worry.Sammy Morris and possibly Kevin Faulk are indeed competition for carries and receptions.

Yet Dillon still produced good numbers last year. If you want to downgrade Maroney because of the injury concern, that's understandable. However, a healthy Maroney will put up numbers as good as anyone in the league in the Pats offense.

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

Larry Johnson- 416 carries not to mention everything else going on. I'll let him be someone else's problem.

Reggie Bush- Most overrated running back in the league. Deuce is still on the team and the better Rb.

Laurence Maroney- I don't even know who this guy is. 1st round pick because he plays for the Patriots? Please.

Shaun Alexander- Give it up. It's over. Stop living in the past. You can't turn back the clock.

Clearly.Not disagreeing that he may be a bust, just saying that you clearly know who he is.

This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.

Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.

So what you're saying is that he played great in college. Just like every other player in the NFL (otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL). Obviously you know this is no guarantee of success. In terms of the NFL he's a nobody. You drafted him in the 7th round and as it turns out that was a mistake. So now you want to draft him 6 rounds earlier? I understand that things done changed in New England but I just don't trust him as a stud (which is clearly what you're expecting of him if you're drafting him with your first pick). He hasn't proven anything in the NFL and I don't think unproven players should ever be drafted that high. Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are both in the same positions yet are drafted rounds lower than Maroney. I don't think that's right.

So you are saying that you really do know who he is? Make your relevant point earlier, so no one is compelled to call you out. That is all.

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

Larry Johnson- 416 carries not to mention everything else going on. I'll let him be someone else's problem.

Reggie Bush- Most overrated running back in the league. Deuce is still on the team and the better Rb.

Laurence Maroney- I don't even know who this guy is. 1st round pick because he plays for the Patriots? Please.

Shaun Alexander- Give it up. It's over. Stop living in the past. You can't turn back the clock.

Clearly.Not disagreeing that he may be a bust, just saying that you clearly know who he is.

This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.

Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm making no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.

As for why he is a late first rounder in some people's opion is simply prorating his stats from last year (175 carries) to 300 carries:

1277 rushing 10 TDs 37 rec 333 rec yrs 2 TDs = 232 fantasy points = First Round Pick

Not too difficult of a concept.

It's real easy to post a . How about explaining your advanced method of making projections?Maybe you could explain why FBGs official Laurence Maroney projections are 5 carries, 8 yards, and 0 TDs difference from what I posted above?

 

[Tommy Collins]

I don't get the dislike of Maroney. He was better than Dillon last year and has no competition for carries in a great offense that produced 20 rushing TD's.

I'm not sure where the dislike stems from but I'm guessing it has something to do with Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker and a bum shoulder.

The passing game will do better, but it's not going to take too many carries away from Maroney. Think of it this way, if you think the passing attack is that much better, then the Pats should have a lead in the 4th and feed Maroney the rock... no? Or a very good pass offense will spread out the field and give Maroney more running room. We can make the argument both ways...

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I don't get the dislike of Maroney. He was better than Dillon last year and has no competition for carries in a great offense that produced 20 rushing TD's.

Dillon last year was nothing like Dillon of old.Maroney had some nagging injuries last year, which is a definite worry.

Sammy Morris and possibly Kevin Faulk are indeed competition for carries and receptions.

Yet Dillon still produced good numbers last year. If you want to downgrade Maroney because of the injury concern, that's understandable. However, a healthy Maroney will put up numbers as good as anyone in the league in the Pats offense.

If only it were that easy. As good as anyone in the league. Hmmm. People are looking too much at the team and not enough at the player when it comes to evaluating Laurence Maroney.

 

[Da Guru]

LJ is just too strong of a runner to be a bust.

Alexander scored 27 TDs..then broke a bone in his foot last year..I look for him to rebound.

I have concerns over Frank Gore. I have concerns over Maroneys shoulder, Addai handling the load and the Teavis Henry hype.

 

[FFdork]

After LT and Jackson, you can make boom or bust arguments for practically every other RB in the top 20.

I think the one that scares me the most is MJD. If he and Fred T. are really going to split carries, it would be really hard for him to replicate that TD ratio. Will be watching the Jax preseason games with interest to see if anything can be gleaned.

Obviously Portis is scary right now too with the lingering injury and Betts waiting in the wings.

 

[bigfoamfinger]

I think it is Cedric Benson. I have never been impressed and now he no longer has the insurance of Thomas Jones.

 

[Revo]

My two choices are Maurice Jones-Drew and Jerious Norwood.

I analyzed every rookie RB who has ever had 75 carries and a 5.2 yard per carry average using the Historical Data Dominator, and not that I need to tell anyone here, but the numbers don't guarantee tremendous success in the future.

Since 1960, Norwood and Jones-Drew had the 2nd and 4th highest yards per rush among rookie running backs with at least 75 carries. But is YPC really a good indicator of future success?

Below is a list of all rookie RBs with 75+ carries and a 5.2 or greater YPC average and how they fared the following season:

ROOKIE SEASON SOPHOMORE SEASON NAME YR ATT YDS YPC TD YR ATT YDS YPC TD 1 Bo Jackson 1987 81 554 6.8 4 1988 135 580 4.3 32 Jerious Norwood 2006 99 633 6.4 2 2007 3 Paul Lowe 1960 136 855 6.3 8 1961 174 767 4.4 94 Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 166 941 5.7 13 2007 5 Franco Harris 1972 188 1055 5.6 10 1973 189 698 3.7 36 Abner Haynes 1960 156 875 5.6 9 1961 179 841 4.7 97 Brad Hubbert 1967 116 643 5.5 2 1968 28 119 4.2 28 Clinton Portis 2002 273 1508 5.5 15 2003 289 1591 5.5 149 Mack Lee Hill 1964 105 576 5.5 4 1965 125 627 5.0 210 Mike Garrett 1966 147 801 5.5 6 1967 236 1087 4.6 911 Curtis McClinton 1962 111 604 5.4 2 1963 142 568 4.0 312 Onterrio Smith 2003 107 579 5.4 5 2004 124 544 4.4 213 Duane Thomas 1970 151 803 5.3 5 1971 176 793 4.5 1114 Charlie Smith 1968 95 504 5.3 5 1969 176 600 3.4 215 Tatum Bell 2004 75 396 5.3 3 2005 174 921 5.3 816 Ickey Woods 1988 203 1066 5.3 15 1989 29 94 3.2 217 Barry Sanders 1989 280 1470 5.3 14 1990 256 1304 5.1 13What’s surprising is:

- Most of the backs stayed within the total yardage range they achieved as a rookie.

- Only four of the 15 backs had a YPC average of 5.0 YPC or greater the following season, but only two had a YPC equal or greater to their rookie season.

- Only one of the non-full time starters as rookies (Mike Garrett) eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark the next season, while two backs who were already full timers as rookies (Barry Sanders, Clinton Portis) were able to duplicate the feat the next season.

- Just six of the 15 backs improved on their rookie year rushing yards totals.

All this said, just three of the rookies suffered significant fall-offs the next season (Ickey Woods, Brad Hubbert, Franco Harris), two of which were due to injury. Harris had a legit sophomore slump (yet amazingly still made the '73 Pro Bowl).

Rushing TDs, on the other hand, were a different variable -- and MJD's 13 TDs placed him in elite company among rooks who scored that many. Among the 15 rookie backs with 13 TDs, only Ickey Woods, George Rogers and Mike Anderson suffered a significant fall-off after their rookie seasons. But every back that exceeded 12 TDs as a rookie were already full-timers to start with, so it's a little different comparison.

Still, the argument to temper your expectations of these super-rookies holds true in NFL history -- while a breakout season is not unheard of, it was not exactly common.