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Which team has a better chance of pulling off the huge upset... (1 Viewer)

Which team has the better chance of winning?

  • Total voters
    120
Raider Nation

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
Baltimore goes to Denver.Houston goes to New England.Both teams are 9½-point underdogs. Which team has the better chance of winning?

 
I think 9.5 points is crazy in either case; neither Denver nor New England is that much better. I'd take the points in both cases. Yes, Denver beat Baltimore by 17, but that included a 14-point swing on a 98-yard interception return TD at the end of the first half on first and goal at the 4 yard line; with a Baltimore TD there it would have been 10-7 at the half instead of 17-0. Similarly, Schaub threw an end zone interception in a 7-0 game. Without those plays the games could have been different, and both the Ravens and the Texans are decent teams.In terms of pulling off the upset, I'm going to go with Houston. They're #7 in yardage defense and yardage offense; New England is #1 in offense but just #25 in defense. Houston definitely has the ability to run and gun with the Patriots. I think the line is big because of the blowout a few weeks ago, but that was a misleading game.

 
Houston. They have the ability to control the clock/game with Foster as long as they don't get behind really quick.

 
Put me in the neither category, but I'd lean Baltimore out of the two.Nothing in the regular season game indicated Houston has a snowball in hells chance. Their D is a terrible matchup for the NE attack.

 
'CalBear said:
I think 9.5 points is crazy in either case; neither Denver nor New England is that much better. I'd take the points in both cases. Yes, Denver beat Baltimore by 17, but that included a 14-point swing on a 98-yard interception return TD at the end of the first half on first and goal at the 4 yard line; with a Baltimore TD there it would have been 10-7 at the half instead of 17-0. Similarly, Schaub threw an end zone interception in a 7-0 game. Without those plays the games could have been different, and both the Ravens and the Texans are decent teams.In terms of pulling off the upset, I'm going to go with Houston. They're #7 in yardage defense and yardage offense; New England is #1 in offense but just #25 in defense. Houston definitely has the ability to run and gun with the Patriots. I think the line is big because of the blowout a few weeks ago, but that was a misleading game.
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So you are basically going with the one that has the most glaring hole. Defense. Smart. But Baltimore doesn't have quite the choking ability of a Schaub or Kubiak. Flacco, sure, but the rest are vets and the franchise at least has some history of being able to win bigger games. On the contrary, we have yet to see Houston get over the hump. So the experience side of things evens things out a bit.In the end, what really tips the scales comes from the top. A Stanford guy in Elway, who got this train to leave the station to begin with. I'm sure you agree. :thumbup:
 
'CalBear said:
I think 9.5 points is crazy in either case; neither Denver nor New England is that much better. I'd take the points in both cases. Yes, Denver beat Baltimore by 17, but that included a 14-point swing on a 98-yard interception return TD at the end of the first half on first and goal at the 4 yard line; with a Baltimore TD there it would have been 10-7 at the half instead of 17-0. Similarly, Schaub threw an end zone interception in a 7-0 game. Without those plays the games could have been different, and both the Ravens and the Texans are decent teams.In terms of pulling off the upset, I'm going to go with Houston. They're #7 in yardage defense and yardage offense; New England is #1 in offense but just #25 in defense. Houston definitely has the ability to run and gun with the Patriots. I think the line is big because of the blowout a few weeks ago, but that was a misleading game.
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:goodposting: overall.Were I betting, I agree that I'd have to take both underdogs. You'd figure that one of them will cover by accident. A turnover here or there... a late TD for the garbage backdoor cover, etc. That's a lot of points.I keep remembering the Ravens going into NE a few years ago in the playoffs. First play of the day, Rice goes 80 for the TD. Game over. Baltimore has many of the same names, though the age on the team is showing. I give the Ravens the better chance at the upset mainly because I don't believe for a second that Matt Schaub will do anything noteworthy in a big spot.
 
New England tends to have games where they play down to the competition. If this is one of those games, I can see Foster and Andre doing enough to keep Brady off the field.I don't see Manning's Broncos doing that at home. I think the Ravens lose handily and I'm not sure which way the NE game goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see overtime.

 
Im not confident but I like Houston with the points but I dont think they win this game.I believe Denver wins and coversEDIT: Denver is @ -10 now on SB

 
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'Raider Nation said:
'mr roboto said:
50% each right now.
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That's why I asked the question. Kept going back and forth on it.
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Honestly I couldn't call it either way. Baltimore has the higher floor IMO. Texans have played at a higher level during the year. So a shoot out = Texans. Grinding playoff game = Baltimore. So for me, which game is likely to match these styles? I would say Balt and NE is more likely to be a grinding old school playoff game. So I go Balt with the better chance. Ultimately I think Balt keeping NE in check is more likely than HOU keeping up with Denver.
 
'mr roboto said:
So for me, which game is likely to match these styles? I would say Balt and NE is more likely to be a grinding old school playoff game. So I go Balt with the better chance. Ultimately I think Balt keeping NE in check is more likely than HOU keeping up with Denver.
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:unsure: I think you need a newspaper or something.
 
'Raider Nation said:
'mr roboto said:
So for me, which game is likely to match these styles? I would say Balt and NE is more likely to be a grinding old school playoff game. So I go Balt with the better chance. Ultimately I think Balt keeping NE in check is more likely than HOU keeping up with Denver.
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:unsure: I think you need a newspaper or something.
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I understand it sounds backwards, but Balt D looked better last week, NE had some clunkers this year against inferior opponents, Denver is on a tear, and HOU is a long time removed from their early season offensive output. Plus last year AFC Champ game, Ray Ray story etc. I think Balt comes out tough and really keeps NE in check, at least for a while.
 
'mr roboto said:
'Raider Nation said:
'mr roboto said:
So for me, which game is likely to match these styles? I would say Balt and NE is more likely to be a grinding old school playoff game. So I go Balt with the better chance. Ultimately I think Balt keeping NE in check is more likely than HOU keeping up with Denver.
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:unsure: I think you need a newspaper or something.
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I understand it sounds backwards, but Balt D looked better last week, NE had some clunkers this year against inferior opponents, Denver is on a tear, and HOU is a long time removed from their early season offensive output. Plus last year AFC Champ game, Ray Ray story etc. I think Balt comes out tough and really keeps NE in check, at least for a while.
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:unsure:
 
'Raider Nation said:
'mr roboto said:
'Raider Nation said:
'mr roboto said:
So for me, which game is likely to match these styles? I would say Balt and NE is more likely to be a grinding old school playoff game. So I go Balt with the better chance. Ultimately I think Balt keeping NE in check is more likely than HOU keeping up with Denver.
Click to expand...
:unsure: I think you need a newspaper or something.
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I understand it sounds backwards, but Balt D looked better last week, NE had some clunkers this year against inferior opponents, Denver is on a tear, and HOU is a long time removed from their early season offensive output. Plus last year AFC Champ game, Ray Ray story etc. I think Balt comes out tough and really keeps NE in check, at least for a while.
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:unsure:
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:lmao:Wow. I. Just. #### it. Not gonna delete. No backing out on this one.
 
I had a dream, it's going to be Houston @ Denver for the AFC Championship game. I had a similar dream earlier in the season to pick up Knowshon Moreno (when everyone else was blowing their waiver priority picking up Hillman and Ball)and ride him to the fantasy championship. The first dream came to fruition, I'm trusting the second one!!!!

 
'Raider Nation said:
'shredhead said:
I had a dream, it's going to be Houston @ Denver for the AFC Championship game.
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Dreaming about things we want is a common occurrence. Your dream also prevents Peyton from facing his master again.
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:goodposting: The first sentence is very true. Not sure if I'd go as far as using the word "master", but I know why you did. Maybe the jedi student has learned enough to outfox his "master", although I'm still sticking with the Kubiak to Denver reunion, Houston @ Denver AFC Championship game!
 
Not a believer in Houston. The defensive game plan for New England seems simple - stop the run and roll coverage toward AJ. Schaub's performance last week does not inspire confidence. I have, at least, witnessed Flacco step it up in the playoffs before. So If I had to bet on one it would be the Ravens.

 
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'Raider Nation said:
Were I betting, I agree that I'd have to take both underdogs. You'd figure that one of them will cover by accident. A turnover here or there... a late TD for the garbage backdoor cover, etc. That's a lot of points.I keep remembering the Ravens going into NE a few years ago in the playoffs. First play of the day, Rice goes 80 for the TD. Game over. Baltimore has many of the same names, though the age on the team is showing. I give the Ravens the better chance at the upset mainly because I don't believe for a second that Matt Schaub will do anything noteworthy in a big spot.
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My betting days are long ago and far away, but there's a huge difference between +9.5 and +10. Huge. If either of these spreads went to 10 I'd take the points in a heartbeat.I'm not real confident about either winning outright, but of the two I'd have to take the Ravens. They've been wildly inconsistent this year, so there's a reasonable chance they'll put a peak performance together at the right time. Houston, on the other hand, has been on a gentle downward slide ever since about Week 10 - what are the odds they're suddenly gonna "click" in Week 18 and revert to early-season world-beating style?FWIW, for the above reason, despite Belicheck's penchant for running up the score I also think it's more likely Baltimore gets blown out than Houston does.
 
'BRONG said:
'CalBear said:
I think 9.5 points is crazy in either case; neither Denver nor New England is that much better. I'd take the points in both cases.

Yes, Denver beat Baltimore by 17, but that included a 14-point swing on a 98-yard interception return TD at the end of the first half on first and goal at the 4 yard line; with a Baltimore TD there it would have been 10-7 at the half instead of 17-0. Similarly, Schaub threw an end zone interception in a 7-0 game. Without those plays the games could have been different, and both the Ravens and the Texans are decent teams.

In terms of pulling off the upset, I'm going to go with Houston. They're #7 in yardage defense and yardage offense; New England is #1 in offense but just #25 in defense. Houston definitely has the ability to run and gun with the Patriots. I think the line is big because of the blowout a few weeks ago, but that was a misleading game.
Click to expand...
So you are basically going with the one that has the most glaring hole. Defense. Smart. But Baltimore doesn't have quite the choking ability of a Schaub or Kubiak. Flacco, sure, but the rest are vets and the franchise at least has some history of being able to win bigger games. On the contrary, we have yet to see Houston get over the hump. So the experience side of things evens things out a bit.In the end, what really tips the scales comes from the top. A Stanford guy in Elway, who got this train to leave the station to begin with. I'm sure you agree. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Yes, the Texans blew some games at the end of the season. But for the record, Kubiak is now 2-1 in the playoffs, with the loss being a close game on the road with a back-up QB. Although he did not play great, Schaub is now 1-0 in the playoffs.I can see not being enamored with Schaub or Kubiak, but calling them chokers has not quite been earned yet.

 
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New England does scare me with their occasional bouts of playing down to the competition. I don't think either team wins it but I can easily see a scenario where Houston plays it very close. I don't give Baltimore much of a chance at all. The Ravens have just been a horrendous road team the latter part of the season and having the Denver edge rushers bothering Flacco all game long inspires zero confidence that they'll hang close with Denver in this one.

 
I said Houston. The earlier game vs NE wasn't as lopsided as most think. 4 Plays completely altered that game (Houston failing to scoop up a Ridley fumble at GL, a Schaub mental error on his INT, unnecessary contact on a 3rd down pass that lead to a questionable PI call, another NE fumble that Lloyd fell on in the endzone for a TD)Houston isn't made to come from behind and when 3 of those plays came early and lead to a huge NE lead it's not a shock to see the final score. Those plays go the other way and it's a completely different game. Last week it looked like Houston has started to regain it's form in the running game and on defense. If Houston can work the clock with their running game and avoid giving the Pats free first downs, I can see them pulling off an upset.

 
I'd say Houston if I had any faith in Schaub, but, at this point, I don't. The Ravens always seem to dial it up a few notches come playoff time, so I am a little worried about tomorrow's game. I know Peyton's Broncos have nothing to do with Peyton's Colts, but his 1-3 record in the divisional round when getting a bye is a little worrisome. So, I'll say Baltimore.

 
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Everybody liking Houston, lets not forget that Matt Schaub has looked absolutely horrendous over the last five games with 1td and 4 picks to go along with a rating of 80 and hasn't seemed to throw a pass longer than 10 yards. Not sure what's wrong with him but he needs to flip the switch if they have any prayer of winning this game.

 
'dhockster said:
'BRONG said:
'CalBear said:
I think 9.5 points is crazy in either case; neither Denver nor New England is that much better. I'd take the points in both cases.

Yes, Denver beat Baltimore by 17, but that included a 14-point swing on a 98-yard interception return TD at the end of the first half on first and goal at the 4 yard line; with a Baltimore TD there it would have been 10-7 at the half instead of 17-0. Similarly, Schaub threw an end zone interception in a 7-0 game. Without those plays the games could have been different, and both the Ravens and the Texans are decent teams.

In terms of pulling off the upset, I'm going to go with Houston. They're #7 in yardage defense and yardage offense; New England is #1 in offense but just #25 in defense. Houston definitely has the ability to run and gun with the Patriots. I think the line is big because of the blowout a few weeks ago, but that was a misleading game.
Click to expand...
So you are basically going with the one that has the most glaring hole. Defense. Smart. But Baltimore doesn't have quite the choking ability of a Schaub or Kubiak. Flacco, sure, but the rest are vets and the franchise at least has some history of being able to win bigger games. On the contrary, we have yet to see Houston get over the hump. So the experience side of things evens things out a bit.In the end, what really tips the scales comes from the top. A Stanford guy in Elway, who got this train to leave the station to begin with. I'm sure you agree. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Yes, the Texans blew some games at the end of the season. But for the record, Kubiak is now 2-1 in the playoffs, with the loss being a close game on the road with a back-up QB. Although he did not play great, Schaub is now 1-0 in the playoffs.I can see not being enamored with Schaub or Kubiak, but calling them chokers has not quite been earned yet.
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They didn't earn it down the stretch this year? Huge choke, losing home field advantage like that. That was everything for them, now look at their road. I do not see a great coach flailing like that. Or a great QB.
 
I love Denver to cover and blow out the Ravens and J. Caldwell calling plays as their offensive coordinator..

love Houston getting pts..

I'd bet each , bigtime..aside from the quick burst of pts off of some freakish plays, Houston did a good job of holding NE to a few 3-and-outs.. Houston is playing with house money, they've got nothing to lose, everyone thinks they're going to get killed anyways..this reminds me of the Jets reg season blowout loss a few years back only to get their sweet revenge when they beat NE in the playoffs @ Gillette Stadium...

Denver might beat down the Ravens like Houston did earlier in the year..I think they'll get crushed.

 
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'Mr. Irrelevant said:
'Raider Nation said:
Were I betting, I agree that I'd have to take both underdogs. You'd figure that one of them will cover by accident. A turnover here or there... a late TD for the garbage backdoor cover, etc. That's a lot of points.I keep remembering the Ravens going into NE a few years ago in the playoffs. First play of the day, Rice goes 80 for the TD. Game over. Baltimore has many of the same names, though the age on the team is showing. I give the Ravens the better chance at the upset mainly because I don't believe for a second that Matt Schaub will do anything noteworthy in a big spot.
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My betting days are long ago and far away, but there's a huge difference between +9.5 and +10. Huge. If either of these spreads went to 10 I'd take the points in a heartbeat.
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That's why people buy half-points.
 
'Billy Bats said:
'Raider Nation said:
'Billy Bats said:
'Raider Nation said:
Were I betting, I agree that I'd have to take both underdogs.
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:goodposting: The best thing I read all week, please post that in the wagering thread. Taking both favorites BIG!! ;)
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You are the reason I'm no longer there. Good luck.
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:confused: :kicksrock:
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http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=516869&view=findpost&p=15195419LOVE getting my balls busted on top of losing a small fortune. Good times.
 
balt has a great chance, but i think den will pull it out...hou has no one believes in us.. can schaub really play that bad for 4 straight games?he is due...

 
'BRONG said:
'dhockster said:
'BRONG said:
'CalBear said:
I think 9.5 points is crazy in either case; neither Denver nor New England is that much better. I'd take the points in both cases.

Yes, Denver beat Baltimore by 17, but that included a 14-point swing on a 98-yard interception return TD at the end of the first half on first and goal at the 4 yard line; with a Baltimore TD there it would have been 10-7 at the half instead of 17-0. Similarly, Schaub threw an end zone interception in a 7-0 game. Without those plays the games could have been different, and both the Ravens and the Texans are decent teams.

In terms of pulling off the upset, I'm going to go with Houston. They're #7 in yardage defense and yardage offense; New England is #1 in offense but just #25 in defense. Houston definitely has the ability to run and gun with the Patriots. I think the line is big because of the blowout a few weeks ago, but that was a misleading game.
Click to expand...
So you are basically going with the one that has the most glaring hole. Defense. Smart. But Baltimore doesn't have quite the choking ability of a Schaub or Kubiak. Flacco, sure, but the rest are vets and the franchise at least has some history of being able to win bigger games. On the contrary, we have yet to see Houston get over the hump. So the experience side of things evens things out a bit.In the end, what really tips the scales comes from the top. A Stanford guy in Elway, who got this train to leave the station to begin with. I'm sure you agree. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Yes, the Texans blew some games at the end of the season. But for the record, Kubiak is now 2-1 in the playoffs, with the loss being a close game on the road with a back-up QB. Although he did not play great, Schaub is now 1-0 in the playoffs.I can see not being enamored with Schaub or Kubiak, but calling them chokers has not quite been earned yet.
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They didn't earn it down the stretch this year? Huge choke, losing home field advantage like that. That was everything for them, now look at their road. I do not see a great coach flailing like that. Or a great QB.
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So does that make them chokers or are they just not a great head coach or a great QB? I think Schaub has had only one game this year that he showed he could be a great QB and that was in week 3 against Denver. 4 TD's passes even with great pressure in face. Unfortunately, I think some of the hits he took in that game has resulted in the Schaub we saw late in the season: skittish in the pocket and bailing out on throws. It's semantics but I just wouldn't call them chokers, I don't think their innate talent is high enough to be labelled chokers.
 
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