Which Team Is Primed To Make A SB Run (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

In the last decade or so, there have been a number of teams that half way or three quarters of the way through the season did look Super Bowl bound that ended up making a run and getting to the champsionship game.

Here were the records of those teams where they were at one point during the season:

SB WINNERS

2011 NYG 7-7

2010 GBP 8-6

2007 NYG 9-5

2005 PIT 7-5

2001 NEP 5-5

2000 BAL 5-4

SB RUNNERS UP

2008 ARI 8-7

2003 CAR 8-5

2002 OAK 4-4

2000 NYG 7-4

So roughly an average of one team a year that at some point was struggling some has gone on to make the Super Bowl.

The flipside of that is that there have been 29 teams that have had 13 or more regular season wins in a season since 2000. But only 9 advanced to the Super Bowl. Since many years there were more than one team with 13 wins, in only 3 of those years did a 13+ win team go on to win the SB (out of 11 seasons with 2002 having no team reach 13 regular season wins).

Certainly every season plays out differently, but in the past 12 Super Bowls, 9 of the teams had 13+ wins compared to 13 teams that had 12 or fewer wins.

At this point in this season, the last playoff team in each conference most likely will have a 9-7 record. Which non top tier teams might be candidates to make a run the latter part of the season and into the playoffs to reach the Super Bowl?

 

[Sabertooth]

Green Bay currently 7-4. They are going to recover from the Giants game and win out with the return of 3 of their best 4 players.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Green Bay currently 7-4. They are going to recover from the Giants game and win out with the return of 3 of their best 4 players.

I love GB as much as any non-homer can, but unless that Oline gels really soon, I dont think they can beat NYG or SF. However they might not have to play those squads.

 

[Blick]

Pittsburgh - if they can somehow hang in there until they are healthy (Troy back this week, Adams probably 2 weeks, and Ben in a week or so). They are a more talented team this year than last.

 

[DoubleG]

Green Bay currently 7-4. They are going to recover from the Giants game and win out with the return of 3 of their best 4 players.

Ummm...no offense, but since when is the team that won the Superbowl 2 years ago and lost only 1 game last season considered "under the radar" or "non top tier" I don't think you're answering the question David is asking at all.The only team that I think fits his category that has a decent chance, IMHO is the Seahawks. In terms of points allowed, the 'Hawks defense is 3rd behing the 49ers and Bears - that's pretty good defensive company. They have a very solid running attack and Russel Wilson seems to be playing better each week. If the Seahawks can get in (and right now they are) - they could be tough. Now, they are horrible on the road, so that hurts them though.

 

[tdmills]

Cincinnati Bengals

Currently 6-5, but riding a 3 game winning streak.

Young QB that's improving and one of the best WRs in the game. Lots of talent on defense and it's starting to gel, only allowed 10 PPG during the winning streak(which includes NYG).

Lost to Pittsburgh by 7 and Denver by 8, they're on the brink.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Think the Giants once again is the obvious choice.

 

[DoubleG]

Think the Giants once again is the obvious choice.

I quit this thread - some people are completely missing the point. A 7-4 team that is leading it's division and won the Superbowl LAST FREAKING SEASON is not "under the radar" or would not be considered a "non top tier team". So please don't say the Patriots, the Giants, the Packers, the 49ers or the Falcons - all are clearly "top tier" and are definately on everyone's radar as SB contenders. MAYBE a team like the Bears or Broncos could be in the discussion - although both are leading their respective divisions, I don't think many would consider either a "top tier" team. I do think both have a decent shot as well. The Bears have the great defense and a very good QB (if he can stay healthy and his o-line can give him any time whatsoever). Denver's defense needs to stay healthy and play well. Their offense can only carry them so far.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

Think the Giants once again is the obvious choice.

I quit this thread - some people are completely missing the point. A 7-4 team that is leading it's division and won the Superbowl LAST FREAKING SEASON is not "under the radar" or would not be considered a "non top tier team". So please don't say the Patriots, the Giants, the Packers, the 49ers or the Falcons - all are clearly "top tier" and are definately on everyone's radar as SB contenders. MAYBE a team like the Bears or Broncos could be in the discussion - although both are leading their respective divisions, I don't think many would consider either a "top tier" team. I do think both have a decent shot as well. The Bears have the great defense and a very good QB (if he can stay healthy and his o-line can give him any time whatsoever). Denver's defense needs to stay healthy and play well. Their offense can only carry them so far.

rough morning?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I don't think it's happening, but if we're throwing darts, the saints have 3 pretty winnable games after the giants, so if they pull that one out they could have 9 wins -- don't know if that would be enough for a wc.

I don't think they look like gb and the giants from the last few years, but they're probably most dangerous of any crummy record team, right now.

problem would be that even if they beat nyg and win tiebreakers, all their playoff games would be on the road, so I'd say it's unlikely.

teams like sea, was, and ind, can all win on any given day, but I don't know any of them could make a sb run.

 

[BradtheAg]

The Cowboys

lol, jk

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

The Cowboyslol, jk

this isn't august

 

[footballnerd]

Think after two tough opponents, NO has a chance to win out the rest of the season and get in.

 

[DoubleG]

Think the Giants once again is the obvious choice.

I quit this thread - some people are completely missing the point. A 7-4 team that is leading it's division and won the Superbowl LAST FREAKING SEASON is not "under the radar" or would not be considered a "non top tier team". So please don't say the Patriots, the Giants, the Packers, the 49ers or the Falcons - all are clearly "top tier" and are definately on everyone's radar as SB contenders. MAYBE a team like the Bears or Broncos could be in the discussion - although both are leading their respective divisions, I don't think many would consider either a "top tier" team. I do think both have a decent shot as well. The Bears have the great defense and a very good QB (if he can stay healthy and his o-line can give him any time whatsoever). Denver's defense needs to stay healthy and play well. Their offense can only carry them so far.

rough morning?

No - just a low tolerance for people who can't actually read.

 

[butcher boy]

My vote is for the 49ers

 

[BobbyLayne]

Well then as defined by the OP and clarified in subsequent posts, I'll say this year bucks the trend. If it is one.

Two top tier teams will make it. I just can't see run from the teams with warts.

 

[identikit]

Think the Giants once again is the obvious choice.

I quit this thread - some people are completely missing the point. A 7-4 team that is leading it's division and won the Superbowl LAST FREAKING SEASON is not "under the radar" or would not be considered a "non top tier team". So please don't say the Patriots, the Giants, the Packers, the 49ers or the Falcons - all are clearly "top tier" and are definately on everyone's radar as SB contenders.

MAYBE a team like the Bears or Broncos could be in the discussion - although both are leading their respective divisions, I don't think many would consider either a "top tier" team. I do think both have a decent shot as well. The Bears have the great defense and a very good QB (if he can stay healthy and his o-line can give him any time whatsoever). Denver's defense needs to stay healthy and play well. Their offense can only carry them so far.

rough morning?

No - just a low tolerance for people who can't actually read.

 

[Chazzhawk]

If you are asking for mediocre record teams I really like the Bucs and the Bengals

 

[Mister CIA]

Slight hijack, but for a little perspective here are some Vegas odds (first link Google pulled up).

Team OddsSan Francisco 49ers 7/2New England Patriots 7/2Denver Broncos 5/1Houston Texans 5/1Atlanta Falcons 7/1New York Giants 9/1Chicago Bears 10/1Baltimore Ravens 10/1Green Bay Packers 10/1Pittsburgh Steelers 40/1Seattle Seahawks 50/1New Orleans Saints 50/1Cincinnati Bengals 60/1Tampa Bay Buccaneers 80/1Washington Redskins 80/1Indianapolis Colts 80/1Dallas Cowboys 80/1Minnesota Vikings 200/1Miami Dolphins 300/1San Diego Chargers 500/1Detroit Lions 500/1Buffalo Bills 1000/1Tennessee Titans 1000/1New York Jets 1000/1Arizona Cardinals 1000/1St. Louis Rams 1000/1
If I wanted to throw away $100, I'd be looking at the Jets. I wonder what odds I could get for picking a Jets/Cowboys match-up.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Slight hijack, but for a little perspective here are some Vegas odds (first link Google pulled up).

Team	 OddsSan Francisco 49ers	 7/2New England Patriots	 7/2Denver Broncos	         5/1Houston Texans	         5/1Atlanta Falcons	         7/1New York Giants	         9/1Chicago Bears	         10/1Baltimore Ravens	 10/1Green Bay Packers	 10/1Pittsburgh Steelers	 40/1Seattle Seahawks	 50/1New Orleans Saints	 50/1Cincinnati Bengals	 60/1Tampa Bay Buccaneers	 80/1Washington Redskins	 80/1Indianapolis Colts	 80/1Dallas Cowboys	         80/1Minnesota Vikings	 200/1Miami Dolphins	         300/1San Diego Chargers	 500/1Detroit Lions	         500/1Buffalo Bills	         1000/1Tennessee Titans	 1000/1New York Jets	         1000/1Arizona Cardinals	 1000/1St. Louis Rams	         1000/1

If I wanted to throw away $100, I'd be looking at the Jets. I wonder what odds I could get for picking a Jets/Cowboys match-up.

Balt & GB would be great bets

 

[SSOG]

Slight hijack, but for a little perspective here are some Vegas odds (first link Google pulled up).

Team	 OddsSan Francisco 49ers	 7/2New England Patriots	 7/2Denver Broncos	         5/1Houston Texans	         5/1Atlanta Falcons	         7/1New York Giants	         9/1Chicago Bears	         10/1Baltimore Ravens	 10/1Green Bay Packers	 10/1Pittsburgh Steelers	 40/1Seattle Seahawks	 50/1New Orleans Saints	 50/1Cincinnati Bengals	 60/1Tampa Bay Buccaneers	 80/1Washington Redskins	 80/1Indianapolis Colts	 80/1Dallas Cowboys	         80/1Minnesota Vikings	 200/1Miami Dolphins	         300/1San Diego Chargers	 500/1Detroit Lions	         500/1Buffalo Bills	         1000/1Tennessee Titans	 1000/1New York Jets	         1000/1Arizona Cardinals	 1000/1St. Louis Rams	         1000/1

If I wanted to throw away $100, I'd be looking at the Jets. I wonder what odds I could get for picking a Jets/Cowboys match-up.

For the purposes of this thread, I'd eliminate anyone at 10/1 or better. After that, if I were laying down money, the Seahawks would be my chalk pick, the Bucs would be a fun play, and the Vikings would be my dark horse.

 

[thehornet]

There is absolutely no f***ing way the Niners win the Super Bowl with Colin Kaepernick as their QB.

 

[SSOG]

There is absolutely no f***ing way the Niners win the Super Bowl with Colin Kaepernick as their QB.

Right. 2nd year players taking over for established, productive starters on teams with great defenses never win SBs.

 

[Ghost Rider]

If I wanted to throw away $100, I'd be looking at the Jets.

That would be throwing your money away.

There is absolutely no f***ing way the Niners win the Super Bowl with Colin Kaepernick as their QB.

You realize that the 49ers were a special teams injury away from going to the Super Bowl last year with Alex Smith, whose upside isn't as great as Kaepernick's, right?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Slight hijack, but for a little perspective here are some Vegas odds (first link Google pulled up).

Team	 OddsSan Francisco 49ers	 7/2New England Patriots	 7/2Denver Broncos	         5/1Houston Texans	         5/1Atlanta Falcons	         7/1New York Giants	         9/1Chicago Bears	         10/1Baltimore Ravens	 10/1Green Bay Packers	 10/1Pittsburgh Steelers	 40/1Seattle Seahawks	 50/1New Orleans Saints	 50/1Cincinnati Bengals	 60/1Tampa Bay Buccaneers	 80/1Washington Redskins	 80/1Indianapolis Colts	 80/1Dallas Cowboys	         80/1Minnesota Vikings	 200/1Miami Dolphins	         300/1San Diego Chargers	 500/1Detroit Lions	         500/1Buffalo Bills	         1000/1Tennessee Titans	 1000/1New York Jets	         1000/1Arizona Cardinals	 1000/1St. Louis Rams	         1000/1

If I wanted to throw away $100, I'd be looking at the Jets. I wonder what odds I could get for picking a Jets/Cowboys match-up.

well said

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Slight hijack, but for a little perspective here are some Vegas odds (first link Google pulled up).

Team	 OddsSan Francisco 49ers	 7/2New England Patriots	 7/2Denver Broncos	         5/1Houston Texans	         5/1Atlanta Falcons	         7/1New York Giants	         9/1Chicago Bears	         10/1Baltimore Ravens	 10/1Green Bay Packers	 10/1Pittsburgh Steelers	 40/1Seattle Seahawks	 50/1New Orleans Saints	 50/1Cincinnati Bengals	 60/1Tampa Bay Buccaneers	 80/1Washington Redskins	 80/1Indianapolis Colts	 80/1Dallas Cowboys	         80/1Minnesota Vikings	 200/1Miami Dolphins	         300/1San Diego Chargers	 500/1Detroit Lions	         500/1Buffalo Bills	         1000/1Tennessee Titans	 1000/1New York Jets	         1000/1Arizona Cardinals	 1000/1St. Louis Rams	         1000/1

If I wanted to throw away $100, I'd be looking at the Jets. I wonder what odds I could get for picking a Jets/Cowboys match-up.

well said

10 bucks on Steeers at 40/1 seems like a no brainer right?

 

[Chazzhawk]

There is absolutely no f***ing way the Niners win the Super Bowl with Colin Kaepernick as their QB.

Right. 2nd year players taking over for established, productive starters on teams with great defenses never win SBs.

I like where you went with that

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

There is absolutely no f***ing way the Niners win the Super Bowl with Colin Kaepernick as their QB.

Right. 2nd year players taking over for established, productive starters on teams with great defenses never win SBs.

LOL

 

[Sabertooth]

Green Bay currently 7-4. They are going to recover from the Giants game and win out with the return of 3 of their best 4 players.

Ummm...no offense, but since when is the team that won the Superbowl 2 years ago and lost only 1 game last season considered "under the radar" or "non top tier" I don't think you're answering the question David is asking at all.

The only team that I think fits his category that has a decent chance, IMHO is the Seahawks. In terms of points allowed, the 'Hawks defense is 3rd behing the 49ers and Bears - that's pretty good defensive company. They have a very solid running attack and Russel Wilson seems to be playing better each week. If the Seahawks can get in (and right now they are) - they could be tough. Now, they are horrible on the road, so that hurts them though.

When they are 7-4.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Seahawks.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Seahawks.

how's that going to look with their corners suspended and trufant out?

 

[Donnybrook]

I will go with the Redskins. This weekend game vs the Giants will make or break for their playoff hopes.

 

[SSOG]

Seahawks.

how's that going to look with their corners suspended and trufant out?

Corners will be back by the playoffs.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Seahawks.

how's that going to look with their corners suspended and trufant out?

Corners will be back by the playoffs.

they have to make the playoffs first, and sf is still on the sched.

 

[DoubleG]

For the purposes of this thread, I'd eliminate anyone at 10/1 or better. After that, if I were laying down money, the Seahawks would be my chalk pick, the Bucs would be a fun play, and the Vikings would be my dark horse.

Agree 100000%

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I will go with the Redskins. This weekend game vs the Giants will make or break for their playoff hopes.

If they can get to the postseason, I wouldn't rule them out against anyone.

 

[packseasontix]

Think the Giants once again is the obvious choice.

I quit this thread - some people are completely missing the point. A 7-4 team that is leading it's division and won the Superbowl LAST FREAKING SEASON is not "under the radar" or would not be considered a "non top tier team". So please don't say the Patriots, the Giants, the Packers, the 49ers or the Falcons - all are clearly "top tier" and are definately on everyone's radar as SB contenders. MAYBE a team like the Bears or Broncos could be in the discussion - although both are leading their respective divisions, I don't think many would consider either a "top tier" team. I do think both have a decent shot as well. The Bears have the great defense and a very good QB (if he can stay healthy and his o-line can give him any time whatsoever). Denver's defense needs to stay healthy and play well. Their offense can only carry them so far.

Think your missing the point that he is asking for and here is why. (went off of ESPN pre-season power rankings)2005 - Pittsburgh #52007 - New York #172008 - Arizona #172010 - Green Bay #62011 - New York #11While I agree that Giants, 49ers, Packers, Pats, Ravens don't qualify the teams below more than qualify if you want to say "non power" teams then... You can't just pick and choose otherwise you need to throw out teams like Green Bay when they won their Super Bowl because they just had under performed and had injuries that year. So either take this list or note Packers were 2-3 at one point this season for instance.2012 -Falcons #12Denver #10Bears #11Bengals #16Tampa Bay #24Redskins #25Vikings #31Colts #32

 

[BRONG]

I can get behind the Gekko and Cinci for all but one thing...Marvin. No way he gets through the entire playoffs without f'ing up. Which goes for a number of these outliers -- a coach or qb that just don't have it (yet). The rookie QBs? Toss 'em. That's why Pitt (at 40 -1) is clearly the call here for any team over 10 - 1. It's not close. All that experience and they get healthy? I can see them relishing the underdog role, too. Not to mention they're NFL royalty and you know they can/will get the benefit of the doubt on their march (Oh, hi Seattle). Do NOT like Pitt, either.

The only other one would be Tampa, partly because they are a whopping 80 - 1.

 

[Not Sleeping]

Think the Giants once again is the obvious choice.

I quit this thread - some people are completely missing the point. A 7-4 team that is leading it's division and won the Superbowl LAST FREAKING SEASON is not "under the radar" or would not be considered a "non top tier team". So please don't say the Patriots, the Giants, the Packers, the 49ers or the Falcons - all are clearly "top tier" and are definately on everyone's radar as SB contenders. MAYBE a team like the Bears or Broncos could be in the discussion - although both are leading their respective divisions, I don't think many would consider either a "top tier" team. I do think both have a decent shot as well. The Bears have the great defense and a very good QB (if he can stay healthy and his o-line can give him any time whatsoever). Denver's defense needs to stay healthy and play well. Their offense can only carry them so far.

Think your missing the point that he is asking for and here is why. (went off of ESPN pre-season power rankings)2005 - Pittsburgh #52007 - New York #172008 - Arizona #172010 - Green Bay #62011 - New York #11While I agree that Giants, 49ers, Packers, Pats, Ravens don't qualify the teams below more than qualify if you want to say "non power" teams then... You can't just pick and choose otherwise you need to throw out teams like Green Bay when they won their Super Bowl because they just had under performed and had injuries that year. So either take this list or note Packers were 2-3 at one point this season for instance.2012 -Falcons #12Denver #10Bears #11Bengals #16Tampa Bay #24Redskins #25Vikings #31Colts #32

I have no idea what you're trying to say with this post. I think you're saying we should be using pre-season power rankings in order to define who the current Super Bowl favorites are. And you're suggesting that approach just a few posts after someone posted the current Vegas odds for the Super Bowl. I think that's what you're saying...but that can't be right.

 

[Cookiemonster]

If Pittsburgh can pull it together and get into the playoffs, having Polomalu back, Ben back, the RB trio healthy and a lineman or two back, they are as good as the top-tier teams. They will probably lose this week vs Baltimore and without Ben, but if they can close out the season 3-1 they will be scary for any AFC team to face. Right now, I'd have to say San Francisco and Denver are my Super Bowl picks, but for "under the radar" teams, it's Pitt. They have experience, talent and can take their game on the road and play in good weather or bad. I like Seattle at home, but they won't get the home field advantage they need. Cincy has the talent to compete in good or bad conditions and on the road, but still seem a bit unseasoned and streaky. Making it all the way takes a hot streak longer than what I think the Bengals are ready to put together.

 

[Eminence]

The Chicago Bears. The defense is playing out of their mind and Cutler can win games for them.

They made it with Rex Grossman, they can make it with Cutler. Great defense, consistently good field position because of Hester.

Don't be surprised.

 

[jbz]

$20 on the Steelers @ 40-1 please

 

[daveR]

If Pittsburgh can pull it together and get into the playoffs, having Polomalu back, Ben back, the RB trio healthy and a lineman or two back, they are as good as the top-tier teams. They will probably lose this week vs Baltimore and without Ben, but if they can close out the season 3-1 they will be scary for any AFC team to face. Right now, I'd have to say San Francisco and Denver are my Super Bowl picks, but for "under the radar" teams, it's Pitt. They have experience, talent and can take their game on the road and play in good weather or bad. I like Seattle at home, but they won't get the home field advantage they need. Cincy has the talent to compete in good or bad conditions and on the road, but still seem a bit unseasoned and streaky. Making it all the way takes a hot streak longer than what I think the Bengals are ready to put together.

I don't really see it happening, but if it does these are the candidates. IMO, it's Hou & SF for the foreseeable future.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Folks, the Steelers have been beaten by the Titans and Raiders, and taken to overtime by the Chiefs - and that's WITH Ben. Maybe it's just my negative homer glasses, but I can't see this team beating three of Baltimore, New England, Denver, and Houston.

 

[SSOG]

Folks, the Steelers have been beaten by the Titans and Raiders, and taken to overtime by the Chiefs - and that's WITH Ben. Maybe it's just my negative homer glasses, but I can't see this team beating three of Baltimore, New England, Denver, and Houston.

Yup. I like the NFC guys better for that reason. San Fran is awesome, but I could see Kaepernick possibly imploding. I wouldn't bet on it, but I could see it. Don't see that happening from Manning/Brady. And after San Fran, I don't think there are any elite teams in the NFC- Green Bay and Chicago don't have offensive lines, and Atlanta has played way too many close games against way too many mediocre teams- one day, one of these 1 score wins is going to turn into a 1 score loss. I see more path for a dark horse to break through in the NFC than to see one beating at least two, and possibly all three, of the Hou/Den/NE trio.

 

[Lash]

i dont see a dark horse this year

HOU or DEN vs SF

 

[Sabertooth]

NFC is going to be Green Bay, Chicago, NY, or San Fran.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Folks, the Steelers have been beaten by the Titans and Raiders, and taken to overtime by the Chiefs - and that's WITH Ben. Maybe it's just my negative homer glasses, but I can't see this team beating three of Baltimore, New England, Denver, and Houston.

the defense is playing at an entirely different level than when loses happened. The Raiders and Titans scored 60 points. The Redskins, Giants, and Ravens scored 45.I don't think the line and Ben will be healthy enough to win three straight in the playoffs but I don't think pointing to the Raiders and Titans games are relevant anymore with the way the defense has come together.

 

[biju]

I'd love to pick my own Seahawks but I don't really see it happening. We have a tendency to play tough at home and the defense disappears away. Since we're not going to get home field advantage during any playoff run we would need to significantly change our scheme defensively. I'm not saying we don't have the coordinator or the personnel, just not the time to actually install something new.

We're going to be a grind it out team for 2012 and based on injuries and suspensions I think that will be our undoing for this year. I still like them to finish 9-7 but I don't think that gets it done.

 

[plymkr]

The Chicago Bears. The defense is playing out of their mind and Cutler can win games for them.They made it with Rex Grossman, they can make it with Cutler. Great defense, consistently good field position because of Hester.Don't be surprised.

I love Bear fans. 2006 was only because of schedule & home field advantage because of schedule. Yeah, lets count on two pick 6 per game &we'll go to the superbowl! lollol