I was thinking about this the other day. All four of these guys are great and legitimate bets to finish in the top 4 again this year, so I think its really a gut call. In a weird way, I think MJD is the LEAST likely to finish #1 overall in this group but the MOST likely to remain in the top 4. I know that sounds weird, but I guess I view the other guys as having more upside, but also more of a chance of regressing from last years numbers.I think MJD is rock solid with the fewest number of questions. I don't think he'll ever be the #1 fantasy player because of his offense, but I think a top 5 finish is in the bank. The other 3 have questions in my opinion. Peterson had 14 TDs from inside the 5 yard line last year. Could it happen again? Sure, but it could also regress a bit. CJ is good enough to repeat his 2000 yard season, but that seems like a tall task. Can Rice catch the ball 80 times again? Ya, but Boldin might eat into that a little. I think all of these guys have higher upside that MJD, but I think MJD's floor is what you saw last year.
Great thread guys! I have been mulling this very question over, as I have the #2 overall. It would seem that CJ and AP are the consensus 1-2 picks, but when I have a draft slot that high, I am looking to minimize the likelihood of a "relative" bust (which to me would be taking a top 5 player who finishes the year at 3rd round value). So I look for the safer pick who will finish the year with 1st round value, and not swing for the fences (which is better suited for later round picks). My 2 cents:1. CJ -- If he doesn't finish with 2000 yds rushing and instead hits 1500, many will consider him a bust. However, with his running style and Titans run philosophy, I think he pretty safe to finish as a top 5 player.2. AP -- he really concerns me. Running style, QB situation, uncertainty regarding the health of the other offensive weapons all make me very leery of him being able to finish top 5. I'm not sure I even like him with Favre coming back; I know Favre is a "warrior", but he is one good hit away from being done. With Tavaris, AP will face many defenses stuffing the line to stop him and let Tavaris try to beat them.3. MJD -- will he ever finish as #1, no I don't think so. But to me his situation is just behind that of CJ to remain a top 5 finisher with the high TD's and pass catching capabilities. Besides, he has his own fantasy radio show on XM and has himself on his fantasy teams, so he has some extra motivation to put up great numbers 
Right now, I am leaning towards taking MJD at #2 over AP; it feels like the "safer" pick.
