Musesboy
Footballguy
I thought that it would be interesting to take a look at the last eight games of the regular season for 2006 to see which receivers finished strongly. It's one of the many tools that I use to try and identify trends and predict future success. It's a small sample size, so the results should treated with caution.
For the purposes of this exercise, I used my top 16 WRs for the coming season. They are ranked here in order of points scored over the final eight games. This is not a suggested drafting order, it's merely something that could help highlight value.
Chad Johnson CIN, 29 years old
87/1369/7 last year (4th)
47/887/5 (75 targets) last 8 games 119.7 FPs (by FBGs scoring)
Henry lost for 8 games could increase chances
No games missed over the last 5 seasons
Lee Evans BUF, 26 years old
82/1292/8 last year (7th)
43/805/6 (69 targets) last 8 games 116.5 FPs
Better OL
Emerging QB
No injury problems at all
Similar situation apart from that
Marvin Harrison IND, 35 years old today (happy birthday)
95/1366/12 last year (1st)
43/668/7 (69 targets) last 8 games 108.8 FPs
OL weaker
Missed 2 games in the last 8 seasons
Terrell Owens DAL, 33 years old
85/1180/13 (2nd)
41/622/7 (70 targets) last 8 games 104.2 FPs
Missed 14 games over the last 5 seasons (9 were suspensions)
Donald Driver GB, 32 years old
92/1295/8 (5th)
42/715/5 (85 targets) last 8 games 101.0 FPs
Missed 1 game in the last 5 seasons
Ankle injury?
Saw more targets last year due to the Jennings injury?
Steve Smith CAR, 28 years old
83/1166/8 last year (8th)
38/535/6 (67 targets) last 8 games 92.5 FPs
Better backup QB should Delhomme get hurt
Missed 19 games in the last 6 seasons
Marques Colston NO, 24 years old
70/1038/8
43/624/4 (70 targets) last 8 games 86.4 FPs
Horn has left so Colston will be the number one
Missed two games in his rookie season
Larry Fitzgerald ARI, 24 years old on August 31st
69/946/6 (24th)
44/610/4 (69 targets) over last 8 games 85.0 FPs
Team will run more?
Leinart should improve in his second year
T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN, 29 years old
90/1081/9 (11th)
51/593/4 (74 targets) last 8 games 83.3 FPs
Henry suspended for 8 games
Had career highs in receptions, yardage, and TDs last year (14 games)
Missed 6 games in 5 seasons
Reggie Wayne IND, 28 years old
86/1310/9 (3rd)
42/578/4 (61 targets) last 8 games 81.8 FPs
Increased reception numbers every year he has played
OL weaker
Doesn't miss games
Plaxico Burress NYG, 30 years old
63/988/10 (12th)
32/478/5 (65 targets) last 8 games 77.8 FPs
Missed 6 games in the last 5 seasons
Roy Williams DET, 25 years old
82/1310/7 last year (10th)
38/591/3 (77 targets) last 8 games 77.3 FPs
Potential star WR now playing opposite him
Missed 5 games over the last three seasons
Torry Holt STL, 31 years old
93/1188/10 (6th)
48/564/3 (91 targets) last 8 games 74.4 FPs
Only missed 2 games in his career
Knee problem?
Has 90+ receptions for the last 5 straight seasons
Anquan Boldin ARI, 26 years old
83/1203/4 (17th)
35/595/1 (66 targets) last 8 games 67.8 FPs
Missed 8 games in 4 seasons
Team will run more?
Leinart should improve in his second year
Javon Walker DEN, 28 years old
69/1084/8 last year (9th)
30/465/3 (58 targets) last 8 games 59.8 FPs
Improved running game
QB very inexperienced with 5 career games
Missed 16 games in the last 5 seasons
Andre Johnson HOU, 26 years old
103/1147/5 (18th)
38/395/1 (73 targets) last 8 games 46.9 FPs
New QB that has just 84 career completions
Missed 3 games in 4 seasons
Thoughts
Is Lee Evans undervalued? The situation in Buffalo has improved slightly, if anything. Losman assumed the role of starter last year and has been the clear number one throughout the training camp. He should improve. The OL has been upgraded slightly. Evans looked good last night against the Titans and is a threat to score every time he catches the ball.
Marvin Harrison doesn't appear to be slowing down, does he?
Terrell Owens could be huge in the Cowboys' system if he continues to see so many opportunities. How many balls did he drop due to the finger injury last year?
Driver is another that appears to be undervalued, as long as he is healthy for week one.
Torry Holt did not finish well, even with 91 targets over the final 8 games.
Javon Walker appears to be a risk at his current ADP. Cutler will have to improve a lot to make Walker good value. While I expect Cutler to improve, I don't think it will be enough to justify Walker's expected level of performance.
Andre Johnson is continually hyped. He had a great first half to 2006, but he appears overvalued again and has a very inexperienced QB.
Last 8 games at a glance:
Chad Johnson 119.7
Lee Evans 116.5
Marvin Harrison 108.8
Terrell Owens 104.2
Donald Driver 101.0
Steve Smith 92.5
Marques Colston 86.4
Larry Fitzgerald 85.0
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 83.3
Reggie Wayne 81.8
Plaxico Burress 77.8
Roy Williams 77.3
Torry Holt 74.4
Anquan Boldin 67.8
Javon Walker 59.8
Andre Johnson 46.9
For the purposes of this exercise, I used my top 16 WRs for the coming season. They are ranked here in order of points scored over the final eight games. This is not a suggested drafting order, it's merely something that could help highlight value.
Chad Johnson CIN, 29 years old
87/1369/7 last year (4th)
47/887/5 (75 targets) last 8 games 119.7 FPs (by FBGs scoring)
Henry lost for 8 games could increase chances
No games missed over the last 5 seasons
Lee Evans BUF, 26 years old
82/1292/8 last year (7th)
43/805/6 (69 targets) last 8 games 116.5 FPs
Better OL
Emerging QB
No injury problems at all
Similar situation apart from that
Marvin Harrison IND, 35 years old today (happy birthday)
95/1366/12 last year (1st)
43/668/7 (69 targets) last 8 games 108.8 FPs
OL weaker
Missed 2 games in the last 8 seasons
Terrell Owens DAL, 33 years old
85/1180/13 (2nd)
41/622/7 (70 targets) last 8 games 104.2 FPs
Missed 14 games over the last 5 seasons (9 were suspensions)
Donald Driver GB, 32 years old
92/1295/8 (5th)
42/715/5 (85 targets) last 8 games 101.0 FPs
Missed 1 game in the last 5 seasons
Ankle injury?
Saw more targets last year due to the Jennings injury?
Steve Smith CAR, 28 years old
83/1166/8 last year (8th)
38/535/6 (67 targets) last 8 games 92.5 FPs
Better backup QB should Delhomme get hurt
Missed 19 games in the last 6 seasons
Marques Colston NO, 24 years old
70/1038/8
43/624/4 (70 targets) last 8 games 86.4 FPs
Horn has left so Colston will be the number one
Missed two games in his rookie season
Larry Fitzgerald ARI, 24 years old on August 31st
69/946/6 (24th)
44/610/4 (69 targets) over last 8 games 85.0 FPs
Team will run more?
Leinart should improve in his second year
T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN, 29 years old
90/1081/9 (11th)
51/593/4 (74 targets) last 8 games 83.3 FPs
Henry suspended for 8 games
Had career highs in receptions, yardage, and TDs last year (14 games)
Missed 6 games in 5 seasons
Reggie Wayne IND, 28 years old
86/1310/9 (3rd)
42/578/4 (61 targets) last 8 games 81.8 FPs
Increased reception numbers every year he has played
OL weaker
Doesn't miss games
Plaxico Burress NYG, 30 years old
63/988/10 (12th)
32/478/5 (65 targets) last 8 games 77.8 FPs
Missed 6 games in the last 5 seasons
Roy Williams DET, 25 years old
82/1310/7 last year (10th)
38/591/3 (77 targets) last 8 games 77.3 FPs
Potential star WR now playing opposite him
Missed 5 games over the last three seasons
Torry Holt STL, 31 years old
93/1188/10 (6th)
48/564/3 (91 targets) last 8 games 74.4 FPs
Only missed 2 games in his career
Knee problem?
Has 90+ receptions for the last 5 straight seasons
Anquan Boldin ARI, 26 years old
83/1203/4 (17th)
35/595/1 (66 targets) last 8 games 67.8 FPs
Missed 8 games in 4 seasons
Team will run more?
Leinart should improve in his second year
Javon Walker DEN, 28 years old
69/1084/8 last year (9th)
30/465/3 (58 targets) last 8 games 59.8 FPs
Improved running game
QB very inexperienced with 5 career games
Missed 16 games in the last 5 seasons
Andre Johnson HOU, 26 years old
103/1147/5 (18th)
38/395/1 (73 targets) last 8 games 46.9 FPs
New QB that has just 84 career completions
Missed 3 games in 4 seasons
Thoughts
Is Lee Evans undervalued? The situation in Buffalo has improved slightly, if anything. Losman assumed the role of starter last year and has been the clear number one throughout the training camp. He should improve. The OL has been upgraded slightly. Evans looked good last night against the Titans and is a threat to score every time he catches the ball.
Marvin Harrison doesn't appear to be slowing down, does he?
Terrell Owens could be huge in the Cowboys' system if he continues to see so many opportunities. How many balls did he drop due to the finger injury last year?
Driver is another that appears to be undervalued, as long as he is healthy for week one.
Torry Holt did not finish well, even with 91 targets over the final 8 games.
Javon Walker appears to be a risk at his current ADP. Cutler will have to improve a lot to make Walker good value. While I expect Cutler to improve, I don't think it will be enough to justify Walker's expected level of performance.
Andre Johnson is continually hyped. He had a great first half to 2006, but he appears overvalued again and has a very inexperienced QB.
Last 8 games at a glance:
Chad Johnson 119.7
Lee Evans 116.5
Marvin Harrison 108.8
Terrell Owens 104.2
Donald Driver 101.0
Steve Smith 92.5
Marques Colston 86.4
Larry Fitzgerald 85.0
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 83.3
Reggie Wayne 81.8
Plaxico Burress 77.8
Roy Williams 77.3
Torry Holt 74.4
Anquan Boldin 67.8
Javon Walker 59.8
Andre Johnson 46.9
