Who are the top 5 WR's this year? (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Why is Chad Johnson so over-rated again? Why not get a legit stud like Harrison/TO/Holt/Steve Smith instead and then get Whoyomama at least 3 rounds after Chad?

CJ had 7 TDs last year and 5 of those came in 2 games. He had 0 TDs in 12 of his 16 games.....is this the consistency you expect from your #1 WR especially if you draft him before any of the above mentioned WRs?

Yes, he will get his ~80 or more catches and 1200+ yards, but so will Harrison, Holt, TO and Steve Smith (barring unforeseen injuries which you cannot predict for anyone) ..... so why bother with the TD downside with this guy?

Just for comparison sake, Whosyomama had 90 catches and 1081 yards to go with 9 TDs.....and this was despite only playing in 14 games....

Would you really want to get Chad at least 3 rounds before Whosyomama instead?



And I have not even mentioned WRs like Donald Driver, Lee Evans, Javon Walker, Laverneous Coles, Andre Johnson who could all be had a lot lower than CJ and would give you greater value.

This love affair with CJ just because he causes so much attention to himself is ridiculous.

2007 does not equal 2006. Chad has outproduced Houshmandzadeh every season they've been in the league. He's one of the steadiest WRs in the game. He has four straight years of at least 1,250 receiving yards and 7 TDs.

In three years as a starter, Housh has averaged: 80 catches, 1005 yards, and 7 TDs

During that same time period, Chad has averaged: 93 catches, 1358 yards, and 8 TDs

Even if you account for missing games, there's still a significant difference between these two. Chad has had more yards in each of his past five seasons than Housh has ever had in a season.

Housh had a career year last year. Is it a sign of things to come? I don't know, but it's pretty common for players to regress after their career years. Remember, it wasn't long ago that Muhsin Muhammad, Chris Chambers, and Santana Moss were top 10 WRs. Yet no one ranks these guys above Chad Johnson and Torry Holt. Why? Because Chad and Holt have shown that they can do it every season.

As for Steve Smith, he's only eclipsed 1,200 yards once in his career. Injuries have certainly played a role in his lack of success, but his reputation exceeds his production. He's overrated and overvalued, IMO.

You also asked about TO, Harrison, and Holt. IMO, Owens is on the decline. I don't think he's the dominant player he once was. And with his injury and character issues, you'd have to be crazy to take him over Chad Johnson.

Harrison? I could justify taking him over Chad. His yardage totals have leveled off somewhat in the past few years, but the Colts offense gives him so many TD opportunities that he's still a stud.

I rank Holt close to Chad for redraft purposes. They're essentially the same player.

You mention a lot of guys who could have a better year than Chad Johnson. I won't argue that Andre Johnson and Lee Evans could have a better year. But I'd much rather put my money on the guy who should have a 1,300+ yard season as opposed to the guy who could.

Chad Johnson is my WR1 this season. Why? Because he always finishes in the top 10. Even if he doesn't end up as the WR1, he's going to anchor one of your starting WR slots. Also, the absence of red zone terror Chris Henry for a significant portion of the season should afford CJ increased touchdown opportunities. He's in his prime and entering an age range where WRs of his breed tend to have some of their finest years (check the careers of Rice, Harrison, and J. Smith).

We could very well see the best season of Johnson's career in 2007.

Obviously you missed my point EBF. I am not saying CJ will not have better #s than Housh, Roy W, Evans, Coles or Driver, BUT you can get all of those players at least 2 to 4 rounds later than CJGoing by your #s for a sec, in a PPR, 1 pt for 10 yards league:

CJ has averaged 93 catches, 1358 yards, and 8 TDs => 276.8 Points



Housh has averaged 80 catches, 1005 yards, and 7 TDs => 222.5 Points

You get 3.4 PPG better from CJ instead of Housh.....is that worth drafting CJ in the 2nd or 3rd round when you can get Housh in the 4th/5th/6th round?

Ever heard of the concept of VALUE????

I can make the same argument now for Driver, Evans, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Coles etc..... CJ is the worst WR out of Steve Smith, Harrison, TO, Holt ..... if you have to take a WR in the 1st or 2nd round, go with one of those.....otherwise wait until the 4th or later and get one of those I mentioned.

If CJ wasn't entertaining he would not be over-rated like he is

Reread your bolded sections. As you did the last 3 yr average, I'll go ahead and give you the 3 yr totals and averages for the 4 guys you called out (Smith, Harrison, Holt, and TO). Mind you, for TO and Smith, I even skipped the years where TO was held out and Smith was injured, so I went with their best last 3 yrs.From top to bottom (3 yr avg)

Harrison--88 catches/1208 yds/13 TDs = 287 pts or 17.9 ppg

Holt--96 catches/1297 yds/10 TDs = 285 pts or 17.8 ppg

(CJ--93 catches/1358 yds/8 TDs = 277 pts or 17.3 ppg)

S. Smith--91 catches/1280 yds/9 TDs = 273 pts or 17 ppg

TO--81 catches/1160 yds/12 TDs = 269 pts or 16.8 ppg

Now, explain to me again why CJ is the worst of that group and why you should pass him up to wait for TJ who is "only" 3.4 ppg lower? TJ is "only" 4.0 ppg lower to the #1 WR in terms of averages over the last 3 yrs so why draft ANY of these guys, right?

ETA--CJ's total points for the last 4 years: 286, 276, 294, 266. So it's not like he's all over the place, either. This guy has been within 10-20 pts of his average the last 4 yrs. What more of a sure thing could you ask for that continues to finish in the top 5 and trails only Holt and Harrison during the last 3 yrs in terms of average FP in a PPR league? I really don't think some of you realize how good and consistent this guy is. It has nothing to do with the "hype". Also, out of the 5 guys listed, he has no "issues" or causes for concern like the age/possible decline of TO and Harrison or injuries for Smith and Holt. The guy is the youngest in the group without any injury history with a premier QB throwing to him in an offense that is essentially unchanged. He has the least likelihood of all 5 of these guys to disappoint.

Also, this is why these 5 guys are ranked in my top 5 as well in this thread. These guys just flat out perform year after year. I see no reason why anyone overtakes them yet. I know you can't always judge future performance by past performance, but none of them have given any reason to suggest they won't continue their repeated success.

 

[Sylira21]

1. Smith

2. Holt

3. CJ

4. Wayne

5. Roy Williams

I'm figuring this is the year Wayne passes Harrison. Why? Well, it has to happen sometime...and Wayne seemed more clutch down the stretch last year. I don't like counting on TO...I guess my nerves can't take his idiocy. And Romo could be great, or he might not be. Roy Williams could be the next real explosion, I'd be willing to take a chance on him.

Evans - I like him, but he doesn't look like a 100-catch receiver.

Housh - he's not CJ. Sorry.

A. Johnson - could be great. Probably top-10.

Driver - Can't see him getting double-digit TDs. And Jennings may cut into his production for more than a few games this year.

 

[ookook]

1. Smith -- Wish their running game and QB looked better, but I think he has the best shot

2. Harrison -- Will continue to be great. No reason to think otherwise that does nto resemble a gambler's fallacy.

3. Owens -- Was great last year in PPG

4. Holt -- Hard to not pick him in top 5

5. Wayne/Johnson -- Toss up. I might think Wayne is more sure to get to 5th but Johnson has more upside.

BTW, not using scoring for Perfectly Putrid Receivers (PPR).

 

[Banger]

1. Smith -- Wish their running game and QB looked better, but I think he has the best shot2. Harrison -- Will continue to be great. No reason to think otherwise that does nto resemble a gambler's fallacy.3. Owens -- Was great last year in PPG4. Holt -- Hard to not pick him in top 55. Wayne/Johnson -- Toss up. I might think Wayne is more sure to get to 5th but Johnson has more upside.BTW, not using scoring for Perfectly Putrid Receivers (PPR).

Hard to argue with this list.

 

[SSOG]

As for Steve Smith, he's only eclipsed 1,200 yards once in his career. Injuries have certainly played a role in his lack of success, but his reputation exceeds his production. He's overrated and overvalued, IMO.

My league actually awards wins based on fantasy points, not yards, so I really don't care how many times Smiff has surpassed 1200 yards. What I *DO* care about is that Smiff was #1 in PPG two years ago, and #2 in PPG last year. Smiff has had the fewest "bad games" over the last two years by a HUGE margin (no matter where you set the "bad game" bar at). No WR in the league has faced tougher coverage than Smiff, and he's still excelled... and the lack of a #2 option means he's looking set to get another truly absurd number of targets.If you had Steve Smith last year and in the two games he missed you started a horrible backup (say someone who averages 5 points a game- these guys are always available on waivers), then Smiff + Backup would have scored 186.7 fantasy points last year, which would have ranked them 3rd overall. Do I care that Smiff failed to top 1200 yards last year? Not in the slightest, because he was still a fantasy uberstud. Even way back in 2003, when Smiff was just starting to come on strong, he ranked as the 15th best fantasy WR in the league. That's a pretty solid track record of success.

With Plummer at QB, Walker averaged 17.31 FFPPG

With Cutler at QB, Walker averaged 10.66 FFPPG

And, of course, there's strong historical evidence thata) QBs do not improve in the slightest between their first and second year

and

b) QBs most definitely DO NOT have a preference for throwing towards the WRs and TEs that they practice with most often (which, for a 2nd string QB, is the 2nd string WRs/TEs... but for a first string QB is Javon Walker).

Be prepared for a lot of this from Denver this year. And some of this, as well.

 

[H.K.]

Be prepared for a lot of this from Denver this year. And some of this, as well.

Those are awesome! Got any more? Oh, that's the entire cumulative highlight reel of TD hook ups between Cutler and Walker.... Anyway, I just added you as a friend and gave you a 5 star rating.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Why is Chad Johnson so over-rated again? Why not get a legit stud like Harrison/TO/Holt/Steve Smith instead and then get Whoyomama at least 3 rounds after Chad?

CJ had 7 TDs last year and 5 of those came in 2 games. He had 0 TDs in 12 of his 16 games.....is this the consistency you expect from your #1 WR especially if you draft him before any of the above mentioned WRs?

Yes, he will get his ~80 or more catches and 1200+ yards, but so will Harrison, Holt, TO and Steve Smith (barring unforeseen injuries which you cannot predict for anyone) ..... so why bother with the TD downside with this guy?

Just for comparison sake, Whosyomama had 90 catches and 1081 yards to go with 9 TDs.....and this was despite only playing in 14 games....

Would you really want to get Chad at least 3 rounds before Whosyomama instead?



And I have not even mentioned WRs like Donald Driver, Lee Evans, Javon Walker, Laverneous Coles, Andre Johnson who could all be had a lot lower than CJ and would give you greater value.

This love affair with CJ just because he causes so much attention to himself is ridiculous.

2007 does not equal 2006. Chad has outproduced Houshmandzadeh every season they've been in the league. He's one of the steadiest WRs in the game. He has four straight years of at least 1,250 receiving yards and 7 TDs.

In three years as a starter, Housh has averaged: 80 catches, 1005 yards, and 7 TDs

During that same time period, Chad has averaged: 93 catches, 1358 yards, and 8 TDs

Even if you account for missing games, there's still a significant difference between these two. Chad has had more yards in each of his past five seasons than Housh has ever had in a season.

Housh had a career year last year. Is it a sign of things to come? I don't know, but it's pretty common for players to regress after their career years. Remember, it wasn't long ago that Muhsin Muhammad, Chris Chambers, and Santana Moss were top 10 WRs. Yet no one ranks these guys above Chad Johnson and Torry Holt. Why? Because Chad and Holt have shown that they can do it every season.

As for Steve Smith, he's only eclipsed 1,200 yards once in his career. Injuries have certainly played a role in his lack of success, but his reputation exceeds his production. He's overrated and overvalued, IMO.

You also asked about TO, Harrison, and Holt. IMO, Owens is on the decline. I don't think he's the dominant player he once was. And with his injury and character issues, you'd have to be crazy to take him over Chad Johnson.

Harrison? I could justify taking him over Chad. His yardage totals have leveled off somewhat in the past few years, but the Colts offense gives him so many TD opportunities that he's still a stud.

I rank Holt close to Chad for redraft purposes. They're essentially the same player.

You mention a lot of guys who could have a better year than Chad Johnson. I won't argue that Andre Johnson and Lee Evans could have a better year. But I'd much rather put my money on the guy who should have a 1,300+ yard season as opposed to the guy who could.

Chad Johnson is my WR1 this season. Why? Because he always finishes in the top 10. Even if he doesn't end up as the WR1, he's going to anchor one of your starting WR slots. Also, the absence of red zone terror Chris Henry for a significant portion of the season should afford CJ increased touchdown opportunities. He's in his prime and entering an age range where WRs of his breed tend to have some of their finest years (check the careers of Rice, Harrison, and J. Smith).

We could very well see the best season of Johnson's career in 2007.

Obviously you missed my point EBF. I am not saying CJ will not have better #s than Housh, Roy W, Evans, Coles or Driver, BUT you can get all of those players at least 2 to 4 rounds later than CJGoing by your #s for a sec, in a PPR, 1 pt for 10 yards league:

CJ has averaged 93 catches, 1358 yards, and 8 TDs => 276.8 Points



Housh has averaged 80 catches, 1005 yards, and 7 TDs => 222.5 Points

You get 3.4 PPG better from CJ instead of Housh.....is that worth drafting CJ in the 2nd or 3rd round when you can get Housh in the 4th/5th/6th round?

Ever heard of the concept of VALUE????

I can make the same argument now for Driver, Evans, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Coles etc..... CJ is the worst WR out of Steve Smith, Harrison, TO, Holt ..... if you have to take a WR in the 1st or 2nd round, go with one of those.....otherwise wait until the 4th or later and get one of those I mentioned.

If CJ wasn't entertaining he would not be over-rated like he is

Reread your bolded sections. As you did the last 3 yr average, I'll go ahead and give you the 3 yr totals and averages for the 4 guys you called out (Smith, Harrison, Holt, and TO). Mind you, for TO and Smith, I even skipped the years where TO was held out and Smith was injured, so I went with their best last 3 yrs.From top to bottom (3 yr avg)

Harrison--88 catches/1208 yds/13 TDs = 287 pts or 17.9 ppg

Holt--96 catches/1297 yds/10 TDs = 285 pts or 17.8 ppg

(CJ--93 catches/1358 yds/8 TDs = 277 pts or 17.3 ppg)

S. Smith--91 catches/1280 yds/9 TDs = 273 pts or 17 ppg

TO--81 catches/1160 yds/12 TDs = 269 pts or 16.8 ppg

Now, explain to me again why CJ is the worst of that group and why you should pass him up to wait for TJ who is "only" 3.4 ppg lower? TJ is "only" 4.0 ppg lower to the #1 WR in terms of averages over the last 3 yrs so why draft ANY of these guys, right?

ETA--CJ's total points for the last 4 years: 286, 276, 294, 266. So it's not like he's all over the place, either. This guy has been within 10-20 pts of his average the last 4 yrs. What more of a sure thing could you ask for that continues to finish in the top 5 and trails only Holt and Harrison during the last 3 yrs in terms of average FP in a PPR league? I really don't think some of you realize how good and consistent this guy is. It has nothing to do with the "hype". Also, out of the 5 guys listed, he has no "issues" or causes for concern like the age/possible decline of TO and Harrison or injuries for Smith and Holt. The guy is the youngest in the group without any injury history with a premier QB throwing to him in an offense that is essentially unchanged. He has the least likelihood of all 5 of these guys to disappoint.

Also, this is why these 5 guys are ranked in my top 5 as well in this thread. These guys just flat out perform year after year. I see no reason why anyone overtakes them yet. I know you can't always judge future performance by past performance, but none of them have given any reason to suggest they won't continue their repeated success.

CJ has the worst std deviation .... that is why. Last year (I understand it was last year and it does not mean it will happen again), the guy had 0 TDs in 12 of his 16 games and had 1 TD in 2 of the remaining 4 games.

 

[gianmarco]

CJ has the worst std deviation .... that is why. Last year (I understand it was last year and it does not mean it will happen again), the guy had 0 TDs in 12 of his 16 games and had 1 TD in 2 of the remaining 4 games.

Yes, you're right it was last year. I'll go ahead and post his #'s before last year so that people can hopefully remember what he's really been like and realize that last year was very much not like his previous 3 yrs.Fantasy scoring with PPR format2005--15/16 games with 10+ pts9/16 games with 15+ pts7/16 games with 20+ pts1/16 games with 30+ pts2004--13/16 games with 10+ pts10/16 games with 15+ pts5/16 games with 20+ pts1/16 games with 30+ pts2003--14/16 games with 10+ pts10/16 games with 15+ pts6/16 games with 20+ pts1/16 games with 30+ ptsWhat does that tell me? That he disappears an average of 2 games/year. That I can count on about 10 games out of 16 where he has a pretty decent game of 15 pts (close to his season average). And about 6 of those 10 good starts are actually really good games that help carry a team to victory. The # of games he has in the high 20's and even 30's is ridiculous. From a position as inconsistent as the WR position, I'll take that kind of production any day. So, in 3 out of the last 4 years, he's been both productive AND consistent. Last year was a horrible year in terms of consistency. Which do you think is he likely to replicate this year? I know where I'd put my money.

 

[Sultans]

I would take these 5 receivers.

1) Torry Holt ( Dominates every year)

2) Chad Johnson ( Inconsistent last year but the numbers were there at the end)

3) Steve Smith ( Talented but worst QB in this group)

4) Harrison ( What needs to be said)

5) Terrell Owens ( Despite the fact that you hate him, he will produce and score 12 times at least)

6) Wayne

7) Fitzgerald

8) Roy Williams

9) Evans ( God this guy is fast)

10) Javon Walker ( I think Cutler is legit thus the high ranking)