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Who are you reaching for? (1 Viewer)

McCoy - more I think about it, I wonder why he isn't being considered in Round 1.  Great situation, no Karlos Williams to vulture TD's and despite some injury issues last year...still almost averaged 100 YFS/game.
I love McCoy this year!  You roll the dice with injuries no matter who you take.

 
The issue with McCoy is that he the 2 years prior to last year he had two seasons of over 300 carries (314 and 312). Then last year he battled injuries. This could be a sign of him breaking down. He's been in the league for 8 years and basically 2000 touches between his carries and catches.

The other issue is that he's only had one season of double digit rushing TDs. If you count his rushing and receiving TDs, he's only had 2 double digit TD seasons. 

My take:

I like Shady. But as a first round pick it's tough to put him above those mega stars. He was averaging 4.4 and 16.9 carries last year. Over a season that's 1190. Then 2.7 R/G and 24.3 RY/G, which is 43 for 389. Total yards 1579. Which sounds good but if you pro rate other guys that missed time it's not as impressive. AP and Doug Martin aren't even in the first round despite leading the league in rushing. Plus, Gurley and Zeke and DJ and Freeman.

McCoy is a solid second round guy but to put him above some of those mega stars is a tough sell.
 
Any of you guys reaching for Derrick Henry?
Intended to, but missed out. He's definitely a guy I'd draft higher than his ADP. Also missed out on Danny Woodhead in PPR, which is unfortunate. I think he's going to have another solid year. Reached a little for Decker, who I think is always underrated. Carr, Kevin White, and DGB are a few that I think will finish substantially above expectations.

 
 I drafted a little differently this year, in 1-2 drafts.

I n one particular start 3WR league, I got one "surprise".

In fact, I drafted someone I said I would never own in my life, thats DeMarco Murray.  It just fell right, but I was only taking that gimp under one specific circumstance.

 Thats ONLY IF I WAS GETTING DERRICK HENRY AS WELL.  So I knew in said draft I would be getting Henry, even if I had to "reach" a bit.

 Fortunately, I don't think I had to reach much, very little in fact, the way things were falling I knew barring something fluky I would get him easily in the 8th, which I did no problems. There were a TON of RBs still on the board at that point. (in front of him)

This was a 10 teamer, and I nailed DeMarco Murray in round 5 pick three, then I was able to get Derrick Henry in round 8 pick 8.

Here is the lineup for context, it looks like this -

 QB- Derek Carr

 WRs- Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Demaryius Thomas

RBs- David Johnson,DeMarco Murray,Derrick Henry,DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Mathews,Ameer Abdullah,Chris Johnson

 TE- Gates

K- Mason Crosby

DEF- Houston

 Oddly enough, I always draft WR-WR in these formats, but I have been super high on David Johnson ever since the preseason last year, so this being my final draft, I figured I would pull the trigger on him at #3. (Antonio Brown and EZE went 1-2)  That in itself was a fluke, as the guy that took EZE typically would have gotten Odell Beckham but this was his final draft as well, and said point blank pre-draft this was his only chance to acquire Ezekiel Elliot. Regardless I knew I would get David Johnson at #3.

 I was prepared to "reach" for Derrick Henry in the 3rd spot in round 7, but the way the running backs were staying on the board, I was about 99% certain I could wait until the 8th.

 
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My biggest reach was definitely Isaiah Crowell as the 25th RB off the board when, according to the MFL ADP data configured for my league he was going as RB 39.  I took him ahead of guys like Arian Foster, Frank Gore, Ameer Abdullah, Chris Ivory, Matt Jones & TJ Yeldon (who was my biggest "steal" getting him as RB 42 with an ADP of RB 35).

Had the first pick and went zero RB.  Didn't draft my first RB until the 6.12-7.01 turn and took Ryan Matthews (ADP RB 22) and Crow because I think they have the best chance to be high volume RBs that were still on the board (except maybe Gore).  Hoping for Jamaal Charles light type usage out of Matthews and I think the Browns will be better than most are predicting, albeit not much, and I have confidence in Hue Jackson to stick to the running game.

Reached a little for Sammy Watkins (WR 11, ADP WR 16) taking him over Brandin Cooks, Jordy Nelson, Amari Cooper & TY Hilton.  The only one I worry may have been a mistake over is Cooper as he has a QB in Carr who seems more likely than Tyrod to start 16.  Cooks has a lot of competition for targets, I think Hilton does too, Jordy is an x-factor, we haven't seen much out of him and his health concerns me.

Also reached for Tajae Sharpe (WR 44, ADP WR 57) & Kenneth Dixon (RB 44, ADP RB 54).  Spec flyers in the 12th & 13th round that don't concern me too much.

 
You should only pro-rate what you feel is reasonable. Prorating the last 9 games would still only be 1200 yards (which is reasonable).  Pro-rating the TDs you come up with 14. Does that sound reasonable given his ridiculously low red-zone target share? Decker had 28 red-zone targets (most of any WR, 4 times what Cooks had) and did not come close to 14 TDs. These are not reasonable projections.

I would also like to add that most of Cooks scores in those last 9 games came against atrocious defenses, the latter two which the Saints will NOT be playing again this year.

NYG - 32nd pass defense - 2 TDs

WAS - 25th pass defense - 2 TDs

JAX - 29th pass defense - 1 TD

In addition, the Saints pass defense schedule this year is dramatically harder given they are playing the NFC west (Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals).

He's fool's gold this year. I'm going to stop convincing anyone of it, though, because I prefer people make bad drafting decisions!

Enjoy the disappointment.
Update?

Do you still project Cooks to be a disappointment?

 
Update?

Do you still project Cooks to be a disappointment?
Update!

2016 stats:

OAK - 26th pass defense - 2 TDs

Certainly fits the bill of what he did last year, doesn't it? 2-3 of these games and barely any looks at the end-zone, let alone scores, in the other games.

No, my opinion hasn't changed. No WR is worth a second round pick whom is coming off a full-season with a top QB that got 4 red-zone targets. That's a joke. He's a 3rd round pick in PPR, 4th in non-PPR.  

He has Giants  32nd ranked pass defense on tap and will likely have another big game. After that he has a string of 8 of 9 games where the secondary is above average with legit #1 cornerbacks.  His next TD after week 2 may not come until week 8 when he plays the 49ers. We'll see.

 
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Well I am 1 for 3 so far. 

Evans has been excellent value for where I drafted him (WR13.)

Rodgers has been just OK, finally broke out on Sunday but the massive lead precluded them from throwing the ball in the 2nd half. Hopefully the comeback the Lions made will prevent GB from going into shut down mode in the future. 

Reed has been a disappointment by most measure. No TDs yet and just average totals for a TE1. 

 
My biggest reach was definitely Isaiah Crowell as the 25th RB off the board when, according to the MFL ADP data configured for my league he was going as RB 39.  I took him ahead of guys like Arian Foster, Frank Gore, Ameer Abdullah, Chris Ivory, Matt Jones & TJ Yeldon (who was my biggest "steal" getting him as RB 42 with an ADP of RB 35).

Had the first pick and went zero RB.  Didn't draft my first RB until the 6.12-7.01 turn and took Ryan Matthews (ADP RB 22) and Crow because I think they have the best chance to be high volume RBs that were still on the board (except maybe Gore).  Hoping for Jamaal Charles light type usage out of Matthews and I think the Browns will be better than most are predicting, albeit not much, and I have confidence in Hue Jackson to stick to the running game.

Reached a little for Sammy Watkins (WR 11, ADP WR 16) taking him over Brandin Cooks, Jordy Nelson, Amari Cooper & TY Hilton.  The only one I worry may have been a mistake over is Cooper as he has a QB in Carr who seems more likely than Tyrod to start 16.  Cooks has a lot of competition for targets, I think Hilton does too, Jordy is an x-factor, we haven't seen much out of him and his health concerns me.

Also reached for Tajae Sharpe (WR 44, ADP WR 57) & Kenneth Dixon (RB 44, ADP RB 54).  Spec flyers in the 12th & 13th round that don't concern me too much.
After three weeks I feel very good about taking Crowell early and very stupid for taking Sammy Watkins over Amari Cooper.

 
This may make @Soulfly3 happy, but a guy I'm liking that's going later that I may grab a little early is Isaiah Crowell. He's going off the board as RB41 and I think he has RB2 upside in Hue's offense.


Also, with the way Eddie Lacy has looked through 2 preseason games, he may be worth taking a little early now too
Still feel pretty good about these, especially Crowell. Lacy is averaging 5.0ypc, they just aren't giving him the ball enough. Think the Packers will start running more and Lacy will have a good season.

 
Lacy, middle of round 2 for previous top 5 pick back in shape? yes please

Demaryius Thomas, top 3 wr finish in 3 of 4 years in round 3

Drew Brees, safest bet to be qb1 overall ADP qb5

CJ anderson, over correction last year to first round, should have been a 2/3 turn kinda guy, can get him in the 4th now.

Demarco murray, scheme is right for his style

Donte Moncrief- Luck stays healthy may congrue more points than TY for a 5th round pick 

Ryan Matthews- Murray was a 2nd round pick last year and matthews stepped in and did what murray was supposed to do, now you can get matthews in the 6th with Murray out of the way?

Gore- 4th/ 5th round rb production for 7th rd pick, prob top ten last yearif luck healthy

Marvin jones- better than Tate 3 rounds later

Black unicorn- gronk goes down top 4 te in the 11th round
Im ok with this

 
Lacy, middle of round 2 for previous top 5 pick back in shape? yes please

Demaryius Thomas, top 3 wr finish in 3 of 4 years in round 3

Drew Brees, safest bet to be qb1 overall ADP qb5

CJ anderson, over correction last year to first round, should have been a 2/3 turn kinda guy, can get him in the 4th now.

Demarco murray, scheme is right for his style

Donte Moncrief- Luck stays healthy may congrue more points than TY for a 5th round pick 

Ryan Matthews- Murray was a 2nd round pick last year and matthews stepped in and did what murray was supposed to do, now you can get matthews in the 6th with Murray out of the way?

Gore- 4th/ 5th round rb production for 7th rd pick, prob top ten last yearif luck healthy

Marvin jones- better than Tate 3 rounds later

Black unicorn- gronk goes down top 4 te in the 11th round
3/10  :no:

 

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