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Who are your 2016 "reaches" or "buy highs"? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mr. Irrelevant
- Start date
elshagon
Footballguy
With Baldwin we'll either have a huge year where everyone says "we should've seen it coming" or he'll regress and we'll have a bunch of "I told you so's". I think I'll take my chance on Lockett getting more catches and find it hard to believe Baldwin will repeat his end of season breakthrough.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Wilson's scorching end of the season contributed to Baldwin's big month. So a similar question is in order . . .
Is Wilson more like the QB that in 50 games averaged:
241 passing yards, 1.6 TD, and 0.64 INT per game
- OR -
Is Wilson more like the QB that in 7 games averaged:
272 passing yards, 3.4 TD, and 0.14 INT per game.
Those that are expecting big things from Baldwin have to be expecting big things from Wilson too.
The Hank
Footballguy
With Lynch gone, I expect the offense to flow more through Wilson (as poster above alluded to).
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Last year, SEA RB had more rushing attempts, rushing yards, and receptions than the previous two seasons.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
And this year they've had an entire offseason to gameplan a more pass heavy/Wilson-favoring/Lynch-less offense.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I wouldn't be so sure. They invested in the backfield heavily and when Rawls was in it was status quo. What makes their passing game so effective is the ability to run....I don't see deviating from that successful formula.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
I agree I don't see them deviating TOO much. I was just saying it's a possibility, and to compare this year to last year isn't entirely accurate.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
As the OP I'm making the executive decision that I can weigh in here
If I'm gonna reach for a guy above his ADP, I want him to have honest-to-goodness breakout potential. Otherwise all I'm doing is drafting him close to his ceiling, and that ain't the way to win titles.
The names I threw out there are examples of that IMO - could Winston regress? Absolutely, but with his youth and weapons, he could put up a top-5 performance. Is Fleener expensive at TE7? Yeah, probably, but with the history of TEs under Brees and the relative paucity of pass-game weapons in NO, he could have a Gronk-like season.
OTOH, Bernard has never gotten more than 170 carries in his career. Worse yet, we already know he's not the goal-line back, in a game that's, even in PPR leagues, very TD-dependent when it comes to scoring. I simply don't see a path for Bernard to finish as a top-10 RB that doesn't involve a significant injury to Hill, and that's not a gamble I want to take at that high an ADP.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
A few more thoughts on some of the names thrown out so far …
- Sounds like the word is out on Famous Jameis. Most of my redrafts don’t happen for another month - keeping my fingers crossed that he doesn’t start clambering up the ADP lists. Anyone who’s drafted with me in the FBG mocks knows I love me some T-Mobile this year as well. I think for the price of a ~QB15-16 combo you can buy yourself top-10 performance with top-5 upside. Eli's a good solid pick but his ADP (QB10) is exactly where he finished last year despite a 4436/35/14 stat line - how much more upside can you realistically expect out of him?
- Honestly I’d rather reach for Hill than Bernard, at least in anything less than full-PPR, although I doubt I’ll own either unless they fall past ADP. There are too many “solid but probably not spectacular” RBs in the 16-30 range to reach for any of them IMO, and if I wanted to gamble on upside I’d go for Hyde or Abdullah over either Bengal.
- Lockett was my 2nd WR option behind Moncrief … and I could see reaching for Kevin White and Sterling Shepard too … now that I look at it, the WRs in the 30-40 range are a potential gold mine this year. I'm thinking it might be a good idea in my snakes to grab a stud WR at 1, look elsewhere for a couple rounds, and then grab as many shares of these four as I can in the 4th-5th-6th. I really liked Marvin Jones as well until the Boldin signing, which could knock a good 30+ targets off his top line.
- 2015 Reed would have been #1 on this list if I’d made it last year; 2016 Reed smells more to me like “priced at his ceiling”. I really like Allen, though, and will reach for him over names with higher ADPs like Witten, Bennett, and ASJ.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I agree on a RB dead zone that starts around the end of the 2nd/early 3rd, basically after Ingram and McCoy are taken. There's a guy or at the right price I would take (CJ in the 4th, Dion in the 6th). It goes really into the 7th/8th where we get back to guys I would take like Forsett, Jennings, Foster, Gio (he is going 7th round) who seem to have similar outcomes as the guys like Demarco, Hill, Jones, Langord that are going 3-4 rounds earlier. If I don't take a Gurley, DJ, Charles early and McCoy doesn't slip to me in the 3rd, I am likely starting my team with 6-7 WRs. Which is fine. I'd rather take Decker who is in his prime and has a 4 year long track record of fantasy success then an Ameer, Melvin, Gore, etc. who weren't very valuable assets last year and seem to be a coin flip at best to be so this year. I can wait a couple weeks and let the RB field sort itself and then trade a WR for a RB whose role or production I can be more confident in.
Maybe it just me, but this thread seems redundant. I feel like it is another way of saying what this thread is about: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/743698-who-are-you-down-with-compared-to-the-ff-community/
