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Who Do We Target? Rookie Draft Edition (1 Viewer)

Sabertooth

Footballguy
[SIZE=8.5pt]As I was responding to another post today it occurred to me that I might just want to make a general topic about this. I think I may have stumbled onto a very good tool for generating consistent value and building a strong contender of a dynasty team through the draft. After years of trying to scout players and read blurbs from biased and unbiased beat writers and draftniks and getting mixed results, I started getting lazy. I mean what is the point of finding the next Arian Foster while the next Ray Rice, Lesean McCoy, and CJ Spiller just slid right past you? I started to think there was no rhyme or reason to hitting on these guys.[/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]This is when I started to turn to the Ted Thompson/Ron Wolf school of draft philosophy. It's pretty simple. There are a lot of variables involved. But what it really boils down to is this: Throw a lot of #### at the wall and see if anything sticks. Rinse and repeat.[/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]Now obviously we don't have 53 roster spots on most teams so you have to modify it a little bit. But there are a few tricks to artificially expand the roster like sliding back and loading draft picks into next season. [/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]This covers the quantity component of adding good players. Most are going to miss, so make sure you are constantly trying to take more shots. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=8.5pt]The other component is finding quality prospects. So you can break down coaches tape or youtube clips. Or you can jump in and exhaustive research things like combine numbers and BMI for players and do all kinds of math or you can do it how I did it this season with pretty solid results. There is some math involved but it certainly isn't trig or calculus...it's more the type of math [/SIZE][SIZE=8.5pt]this guy[/SIZE][SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE][SIZE=8.5pt]taught you. Here is the big secret....better players generally get drafted earlier. So look at the number next to their name that refers to their draft position. [/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]Two components basically went into my draft this year. The first was making sure I had a lot of picks. I had the first overall pick and traded back to gain more ammo. I then looked mainly at draft position to make those picks within the parameters of my personal team needs. [/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]In my 2QB league I had the number 1 overall pick and the 9th. I watched guys like Mayock and Jeremiah consistently say how weak this class was for skill position players. So I traded back a few times. From the 1.01 to the 1.05 and then the 1.05 to the 1.09. This sliding back netted me two first rounders for 2014. I get to stash those picks and thus push an asset into the future. This circumvents the roster restrictions. I am able to load value onto my future draft picks which I can use this year in trades during the year or next season. Nothing like dangling multiple first round picks in front of an owner who has no hope of making the playoffs in Week 10 for a guy that can push you over the top. [/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]With the 1.09 pick I watched Bell, Manuel, Ball, Lacy, Austin, Hopkins, Patterson, and Franklin go off the board. Because this is a 2QB league I had Geno Smith (NFL Pick 39) rated 3rd overall behind only Manuel and Austin. I took Geno happily. It was basically like I'd traded from the 1.01 to the 1.03 and loaded two first rounders into the future. And the future class might be much stronger (looking at you Bridgewater and Lee). [/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]With my next pick I reverted to old habits and selected Lattimore (NFL Pick 131) . I talked myself into it and he's basically just going to tie up a roster spot. I should have traded the pick or taken Justin Hunter. [/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]But I was back on my game the next few picks which were the 3.02 (Keenan Allen NFL Pick 76), 3.05 (Tyler Eifert NFL Pick 21), and 3.06 (Christine Michael NFL Pick 62). [/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]By trading back I had the ammo to take those relatively high picks much later and for a far cheaper price. I couldn't believe Allen slid that far, let alone Eifert. I wasn't sold on Michael but just picked him because Pete Carroll picked him in the 2nd round, before guys like Franklin, Lattimore, Randle, and Taylor were picked. He was nearly 100 picks earlier than FBG favorite Zac Stacy.[/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]So how did the strategy work this season? [/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]Well since the draft I have added Mike Glennon and Travis Kelce. So my rookies are:[/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]Geno Smith (will get starts this season most likely)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=8.5pt]Marcus Lattimore (wasted pick, I should have traded out or taken Justin Hunter) the only guy who didn't fit my gameplan.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=8.5pt]Keenan Allen (second day NFL pick who looks to have a legit shot to produce immediately)
Tyler Eifert (NFL first round pick who some are saying is already a top 10 dynasty TE)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=8.5pt]Christine Michael (Picked him based solely on his draft slot and it appears to have been my strongest pick of the whole draft)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=8.5pt]Mike Glennon (Josh Freeman is still in his make or break year. He was a FA pickup but a second day NFL pick at QB)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=8.5pt]Travis Kelce (Just couldn't stand watching him float around in the player pool. I think he's another Shockey just like Reid said. Another second Day NFL pick)[/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]Lots of crap thrown, only one of those players made it past Friday night of the NFL draft and that was Lattimore. I like the rest to contribute. None have been cast aside yet like Zac Stacy and Joe Randle. Flashier picks at the time of this draft in May were Tyler Wilson, Zac Stacy, Matt Barkley, and Da'rick Rodgers. These were the guys being hyped. None appear to be in position to do anything at all this year.[/SIZE]

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[SIZE=8.5pt]So throw a lot of #### and the wall and see what sticks. But make sure it's highly drafted #### to get a better result. Let the pros do the scouting. Play the numbers game but play it smart. And while people are dropping picks on guys who are physical specimens like Chris Harper and Quinton Patton, go for the dudes like Marquise Goodwin (NFL pick 78) who was a much higher pick even if it was just the Bills. Turns out he's lighting it up in camp. Go figure. [/SIZE]

 
If your goal here was to get more picks next year so you had more chances at getting lucky with a player... Mission Accomplished

I think however that you outsmarted yourself. Those 1's next year could be low first round picks for all you know. This was a year that you could have picked whomever you thought was the best player, in the best situation, with the best opportunity to score points, in a game you play that rewards wins based on those points.

Out of the seven picks you made this year I like Eifert and Allen to produce. I don't believe either of them will help your team more than any of the first seven taken in your draft. I also think you got dang lucky to get both of them. Gino Smith...no thanks...he plays for the Jets and he's the backup.

Our league doesn't allow trading for next years picks but even if it did there's not a chance in hell I would give up 1.1 for picks next year. I'd rather get to choose the player I want. Not what's left for me to choose from. On top of all that I want to win now. I can say maybe next year when the current year is over.

Next years draft will be more fun for you though.

 
I find that reports of how players are doing in camp is an extremely good thing to pay attention to. After you get past the fantasy 1st round or so, it's far more important to me than what NFL draft pick used.

 
I find that reports of how players are doing in camp is an extremely good thing to pay attention to. After you get past the fantasy 1st round or so, it's far more important to me than what NFL draft pick used.
Who are you hearing is tearing up camp that was picked outside the top 3 round?. I count one guy Kenbrell Thompkins although there might be more.

If your goal here was to get more picks next year so you had more chances at getting lucky with a player... Mission Accomplished

I think however that you outsmarted yourself. Those 1's next year could be low first round picks for all you know. This was a year that you could have picked whomever you thought was the best player, in the best situation, with the best opportunity to score points, in a game you play that rewards wins based on those points.

Out of the seven picks you made this year I like Eifert and Allen to produce. I don't believe either of them will help your team more than any of the first seven taken in your draft. I also think you got dang lucky to get both of them. Gino Smith...no thanks...he plays for the Jets and he's the backup.

Our league doesn't allow trading for next years picks but even if it did there's not a chance in hell I would give up 1.1 for picks next year. I'd rather get to choose the player I want. Not what's left for me to choose from. On top of all that I want to win now. I can say maybe next year when the current year is over.

Next years draft will be more fun for you though.
That's what I am saying though. I hit on two picks, although I'd say Michael and Geno will be good picks as well. Hitting on 2-4 picks in a rookie draft is pretty solid. It remains to be seen whether or not I was right of course but I don't think a strategy of drafting rookies based mainly on what they will do in year one is a solid long term strategy.

 
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I pretty much disagree with this strategy. Rookie drafts in general suck past the first round and generally you don't get the impact players outside the first few picks. IMO you take the stud RB at the top of the first, then throw darts at the wall and hope they stick. In a 2 QB league obviously they are more valuable except this year IMO where they are all pretty mediocre talents and have a questionable rate of success.

That you got Michael and Allen in the third just says your league doesn't do it's research. Those guys are second rounders at worst. Eifert should of gone late first round, early second.

 
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I find that reports of how players are doing in camp is an extremely good thing to pay attention to. After you get past the fantasy 1st round or so, it's far more important to me than what NFL draft pick used.
Who are you hearing is tearing up camp that was picked outside the top 3 round?. I count one guy Kenbrell Thompkins although there might be more.
This has been a quieter year than most. Off the top of my head, in the past few years I've gotten Russell Wilson, Alfred Morris, Cecil Shorts, Denarius Moore, and Rod Streater going off of early camp hype, taking them before they would have otherwise gone from rankings. Guys like Wilson and Morris later won the spots outright obviously, but we drafted earlier in camp and got them based on word of how they were doing before it became obvious.

Trying to go from memory here as I'm not on my cpu with my draft prep. Dobson and Thompkins of course are up there though their value is a bit different with the Brady not having many receivers thing. Sudfeld too.

It's been a bit leaner in terms of unexpected rookie camp standouts this particular year. But some guys who have had some standout at least compared to the rest of this year's crop... Joseph Randle. Kenny Stills. Mike Cox on the Giants and Benny Cunningham on the Rams. Kenjon Barner. Glennon at QB. I heard some things about Jermaine Kearse in Seattle as well, though I hadn't decided yet if it was overall camp buzz or too much focused on his touchdowns in the preseason games. He may also be buried too deep with them having a solid top 3 when Harvin is healthy.

I don't feel as good about those guys contributing this year or maybe even next. Though some of them may end up in a position where an injury could get them a shot. There are a lot of guys ranked higher in the dynasty rankings who, after hearing about camp performance, I think have less of a chance of ever being in the mix for fantasy points than some of those.

 
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I like what you did. Like the players you got. Seems like very little sacrifice and still got the players you wanted, plus 2014 picks.

 
I find that reports of how players are doing in camp is an extremely good thing to pay attention to. After you get past the fantasy 1st round or so, it's far more important to me than what NFL draft pick used.
Who are you hearing is tearing up camp that was picked outside the top 3 round?. I count one guy Kenbrell Thompkins although there might be more.
This has been a quieter year than most. Off the top of my head, in the past few years I've gotten Russell Wilson, Alfred Morris, Cecil Shorts, Denarius Moore, and Rod Streater going off of early camp hype, taking them before they would have otherwise gone from rankings. Guys like Wilson and Morris later won the spots outright obviously, but we drafted earlier in camp and got them based on word of how they were doing before it became obvious.

Trying to go from memory here as I'm not on my cpu with my draft prep. Dobson and Thompkins of course are up there though their value is a bit different with the Brady not having many receivers thing. Sudfeld too.

It's been a bit leaner in terms of unexpected rookie camp standouts this particular year. But some guys who have had some standout at least compared to the rest of this year's crop... Joseph Randle. Kenny Stills. Mike Cox on the Giants and Benny Cunningham on the Rams. Kenjon Barner. Glennon at QB. I heard some things about Jermaine Kearse in Seattle as well, though I hadn't decided yet if it was overall camp buzz or too much focused on his touchdowns in the preseason games. He may also be buried too deep with them having a solid top 3 when Harvin is healthy.

I don't feel as good about those guys contributing this year or maybe even next. Though some of them may end up in a position where an injury could get them a shot. There are a lot of guys ranked higher in the dynasty rankings who, after hearing about camp performance, I think have less of a chance of ever being in the mix for fantasy points than some of those.
Good point but Russell was indeed a third rounder. Alfred Morris wasn't drafted in any of my rookies drafts, nor was Shorts. So these players slid so far through the cracks that you could have still employed my two principles and picked them off waivers. But let's not forget that Luck and RG3 were the high picks in that draft and both hit big time, bigger than Wilson I'd say. And Doug Martin was huge as well as an NFL first rounder. David Wilson was lackluster but he appears primed to break out this season. Denarius Moore is a great example of why you want to look at NFL draft slot. He was a late pick and he has performed as such. Streeter hasn't done anything at all.

Dobson isn't really a surprise, he was a second round pick. Randle isn't impressing much, in fact I'd heard he was behind Dunbar pretty handily.

 
I guess the point I am trying to make is that while a lot of guys think they know who will hit and who won't hit, they really are just guessing. And if you are just guessing then two good things to do are get a lot of guesses and tend towards the higher draft picks. Follow the money. Don't overthink it. High NFL picks and lots of em'

 
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I find that reports of how players are doing in camp is an extremely good thing to pay attention to. After you get past the fantasy 1st round or so, it's far more important to me than what NFL draft pick used.
Who are you hearing is tearing up camp that was picked outside the top 3 round?. I count one guy Kenbrell Thompkins although there might be more.
This has been a quieter year than most. Off the top of my head, in the past few years I've gotten Russell Wilson, Alfred Morris, Cecil Shorts, Denarius Moore, and Rod Streater going off of early camp hype, taking them before they would have otherwise gone from rankings. Guys like Wilson and Morris later won the spots outright obviously, but we drafted earlier in camp and got them based on word of how they were doing before it became obvious.

Trying to go from memory here as I'm not on my cpu with my draft prep. Dobson and Thompkins of course are up there though their value is a bit different with the Brady not having many receivers thing. Sudfeld too.

It's been a bit leaner in terms of unexpected rookie camp standouts this particular year. But some guys who have had some standout at least compared to the rest of this year's crop... Joseph Randle. Kenny Stills. Mike Cox on the Giants and Benny Cunningham on the Rams. Kenjon Barner. Glennon at QB. I heard some things about Jermaine Kearse in Seattle as well, though I hadn't decided yet if it was overall camp buzz or too much focused on his touchdowns in the preseason games. He may also be buried too deep with them having a solid top 3 when Harvin is healthy.

I don't feel as good about those guys contributing this year or maybe even next. Though some of them may end up in a position where an injury could get them a shot. There are a lot of guys ranked higher in the dynasty rankings who, after hearing about camp performance, I think have less of a chance of ever being in the mix for fantasy points than some of those.
Good point but Russell was indeed a third rounder. Alfred Morris wasn't drafted in any of my rookies drafts, nor was Shorts. So these players slid so far through the cracks that you could have still employed my two principles and picked them off waivers. But let's not forget that Luck and RG3 were the high picks in that draft and both hit big time, bigger than Wilson I'd say. And Doug Martin was huge as well as an NFL first rounder. David Wilson was lackluster but he appears primed to break out this season. Denarius Moore is a great example of why you want to look at NFL draft slot. He was a late pick and he has performed as such. Streeter hasn't done anything at all.

Dobson isn't really a surprise, he was a second round pick. Randle isn't impressing much, in fact I'd heard he was behind Dunbar pretty handily.
Sabre, kind of feels like nothing I said got any consideration at all. The response reads like just trying to find something about each player so the point I was bringing up could be ignored rather than considered.

Take Rod Streater. Why is relevant that he didn't do anything last year? This year he's a WR2 on an NFL team. Most rookies you'd be looking at drafting late never sniff at that much NFL opportunity. But it was pretty clear from camp reports after the first couple weeks of camp, if the NFL draft was done over he wouldn't have gone undrafted again. Why wouldn't you want to fantasy draft him based on where he'd go based on the new information we have as of the moment, rather than just on what NFL teams had before they got to see the player compete against actual NFL players?

Russell Wilson. He (and Nick Foles 1 pick later) were both fantasy drafted well ahead of Osweiller who was a round earlier in the NFL draft. And taken ahead of a lot of other skill positions players who were also taken earlier in the NFL draft but who didn't have reports they were standing out.

And wouldn't you rather take Alfred Morris in a draft when everyone who just considers him a 6th round NFL pick let him slide, rather than have to contend with everyone else on waivers once it becomes obvious he's moved up the depth chart?

I'm advocating taking a player based on all the information you have on him. While NFL draft round is part of that information, if you have credible news a player is performing well above his round, or well below his round, then include it. You still won't be perfect, but you'll come out ahead. Working off actual observations is less guessing than is just going off of NFL round taken which was based off information that is now outdated.

 
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I guess the point I am trying to make is that while a lot of guys think they know who will hit and who won't hit, they really are just guessing. And if you are just guessing then two good things to do are get a lot of guesses and tend towards the higher draft picks. Follow the money. Don't overthink it. High NFL picks and lots of em'
Your only advantage over your competition is waiting for them to make a mistake. In your case, your competition made the following mistakes 1) radically underestimated the value difference in this draft class between 1.1 and 1.10, 2) radically underestimating Eifert's value, and 3) not realizing Michael was a player. Without those mistakes you have a much worse draft class. I don't think those mistakes were common this year or similar mistakes can be expected next year.

I think by your parameters you should not have drafted Geno because he was a relatively low draft pick for a QB. A 2nd round QB is a lot different from a 2nd round RB/WR/TE.

 
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By the way, cross off Kearse. Finally did some research on him, my draft was over before I picked up on him, and he's 2nd year, was on the practice squad last year. Though it does sound like he's showing consistently in camp and it wasn't just the preseason games.

 
There are some good points to the original post (wish it was in a larger font ;) ).

I totally agree that trading for draft picks in the most sure way to increase the overall value of your roster. Roster spots are finite. The more picks you have the more value your overall team possesses.

So looking for opportunities to add draft picks is a good thing. They are fluid like money. More fluid than players when it comes to trades. Your trade partner may not like the players you are willing to part with, but they will value the flexible option that draft picks offer them.

Likewise trading players for picks presents a value added opportunity in itself, because now you can pick up a free agent prospect (who you might later be able to trade for picks as well) while also capitalizing on the value (or perceived value) of the player you are trading away. To me every time you get your opponents to sell part of their future for a good roster acquisition you have already made, you profit. You are locking in at least a portion of the expected value of the asset you are trading away in the form of draft picks.

The picks themselves are likely best used to trade for players you really really want. This is how you consolidate many small trades (player for 3rd round pick, player for 2nd round pick, 2 3rd round picks for a 2nd and so on) into a top rated player. Either by trading the picks directly for that player or by trading the picks to move up in the draft for that player.

If you tried to trade 10 Kenbrell Thompkinses (hypothetical example) for Adrian Peterson you would not likely have many takers. But if you trade 10 KT's for enough draft picks that could be moved up to 3 1st round draft picks, then you are at least able to get the Peterson owners attention. They can use those picks on whatever players they may like.

Of course you still want to keep a reasonable number of core players on your team that hopefully are good enough for you to be competitive. The decision making process on a lot of trades is like this. Can I afford to give up this depth player and still compete for a title this season? As you are successful in making trades for picks your depth becomes more depleted, you need to restock it with more players that opponents might be willing to trade you picks for, or who could be startable for you in a pinch, if one of your main players goes down. So there is the balancing act. Sometimes you may over extend (trade away too much) or not extend enough (passed opportunity to gain value to overall roster).

As far as throwing draft picks and seeing what sticks? Yes. Having a lot of draft picks allows you to take more of a shotgun strategy to the draft, as long as you have the roster space to accommodate the new comers. If you don't, then you have too many picks and should be looking to sell those picks forward or consolidate their value so you do not have to waste them on players you may soon cut, in order to pick up better players later on as Greg is talking about.

Now Saber, based on how your draft went down I do not think you should be patting yourself on the back here. It looks like you brought a bazooka to a water gun fight here. Gladly take their money I guess, but I think you would benefit more as a FF player with stiffer competition. I don't think anyone could draw too many other conclusions from Eifert (possibly the best overall pick in the whole draft) falling to you in the 3rd round. That is something that should not happen. If the owners in your league pass obvious prospects like this I am not sure if you need any draft picks at all.

 
I guess the point I am trying to make is that while a lot of guys think they know who will hit and who won't hit, they really are just guessing. And if you are just guessing then two good things to do are get a lot of guesses and tend towards the higher draft picks. Follow the money. Don't overthink it. High NFL picks and lots of em'
Your only advantage over your competition is waiting for them to make a mistake. In your case, your competition made the following mistakes 1) radically underestimated the value difference in this draft class between 1.1 and 1.10, 2) radically underestimating Eifert's value, and 3) not realizing Michael was a player. Without those mistakes you have a much worse draft class. I don't think those mistakes were common this year or similar mistakes can be expected next year.

I think by your parameters you should not have drafted Geno because he was a relatively low draft pick for a QB. A 2nd round QB is a lot different from a 2nd round RB/WR/TE.
I am trying to rebuild my QBs. This is a start 2QB 10 team league so they are a hot commodity.

 
I guess the point I am trying to make is that while a lot of guys think they know who will hit and who won't hit, they really are just guessing. And if you are just guessing then two good things to do are get a lot of guesses and tend towards the higher draft picks. Follow the money. Don't overthink it. High NFL picks and lots of em'
Your only advantage over your competition is waiting for them to make a mistake. In your case, your competition made the following mistakes 1) radically underestimated the value difference in this draft class between 1.1 and 1.10, 2) radically underestimating Eifert's value, and 3) not realizing Michael was a player. Without those mistakes you have a much worse draft class. I don't think those mistakes were common this year or similar mistakes can be expected next year.

I think by your parameters you should not have drafted Geno because he was a relatively low draft pick for a QB. A 2nd round QB is a lot different from a 2nd round RB/WR/TE.
I am trying to rebuild my QBs. This is a start 2QB 10 team league so they are a hot commodity.
I was gonna say: if you really do rate Geno that highly, this is a solid approach. But in a 2QB league that wasn't drafting its rookies till now, I would have had a hard time passing up just using the 1.01 on Manuel, who has had an impressive camp and preseason.

Also, where on earth was Gio in those first 8 picks? Was he really not taken until 1.10?

 
I guess the point I am trying to make is that while a lot of guys think they know who will hit and who won't hit, they really are just guessing. And if you are just guessing then two good things to do are get a lot of guesses and tend towards the higher draft picks. Follow the money. Don't overthink it. High NFL picks and lots of em'
Your only advantage over your competition is waiting for them to make a mistake. In your case, your competition made the following mistakes 1) radically underestimated the value difference in this draft class between 1.1 and 1.10, 2) radically underestimating Eifert's value, and 3) not realizing Michael was a player. Without those mistakes you have a much worse draft class. I don't think those mistakes were common this year or similar mistakes can be expected next year.

I think by your parameters you should not have drafted Geno because he was a relatively low draft pick for a QB. A 2nd round QB is a lot different from a 2nd round RB/WR/TE.
I am trying to rebuild my QBs. This is a start 2QB 10 team league so they are a hot commodity.
I was gonna say: if you really do rate Geno that highly, this is a solid approach. But in a 2QB league that wasn't drafting its rookies till now, I would have had a hard time passing up just using the 1.01 on Manuel, who has had an impressive camp and preseason.

Also, where on earth was Gio in those first 8 picks? Was he really not taken until 1.10?
Oddly enough he slid into the second round. I wanted to take him but followed my board.

 
I have always tried to get as many of those "meaningless" picks as possible. When I am making a trade I will include a 3rd or 4th from the other team. I usually end up with a ton of picks and then from there apply the, see what sticks theory. Also its amazing how once the draft starts a player some guy "has" to have in the 4th ends up being a value trade for me.

People usually hold on to those 1st rounders like gold but have no problem trading late picks. From sheer volume I almost always end up with those late round gems (also helps those of us who don't watch a lot of college football as it takes out some of the guess work).

Thanks for sharing and good luck with your players.

 
I have always tried to get as many of those "meaningless" picks as possible. When I am making a trade I will include a 3rd or 4th from the other team. I usually end up with a ton of picks and then from there apply the, see what sticks theory. Also its amazing how once the draft starts a player some guy "has" to have in the 4th ends up being a value trade for me.

People usually hold on to those 1st rounders like gold but have no problem trading late picks. From sheer volume I almost always end up with those late round gems (also helps those of us who don't watch a lot of college football as it takes out some of the guess work).

Thanks for sharing and good luck with your players.
That's a fantastic idea Papa Georgio. People think nothing of including a 3rd round rookie pick midseason to make a trade happen. Great way to pick up value and stow it away for the future.

 
I guess the point I am trying to make is that while a lot of guys think they know who will hit and who won't hit, they really are just guessing. And if you are just guessing then two good things to do are get a lot of guesses and tend towards the higher draft picks. Follow the money. Don't overthink it. High NFL picks and lots of em'
Your only advantage over your competition is waiting for them to make a mistake. In your case, your competition made the following mistakes 1) radically underestimated the value difference in this draft class between 1.1 and 1.10, 2) radically underestimating Eifert's value, and 3) not realizing Michael was a player. Without those mistakes you have a much worse draft class. I don't think those mistakes were common this year or similar mistakes can be expected next year.

I think by your parameters you should not have drafted Geno because he was a relatively low draft pick for a QB. A 2nd round QB is a lot different from a 2nd round RB/WR/TE.
I am trying to rebuild my QBs. This is a start 2QB 10 team league so they are a hot commodity.
I was gonna say: if you really do rate Geno that highly, this is a solid approach. But in a 2QB league that wasn't drafting its rookies till now, I would have had a hard time passing up just using the 1.01 on Manuel, who has had an impressive camp and preseason.

Also, where on earth was Gio in those first 8 picks? Was he really not taken until 1.10?
Oddly enough he slid into the second round. I wanted to take him but followed my board.
He slid in my league too... also a 2QB plus more WR and TE so RB is less valuable. Contract structure also played a role, as rookie RB salaries are higher than any other position. Still, I was surprised he was there for me at 1.12 and 2.01, which made him an extra value since the salary drops each round so went from $31 to $21 by using the 2.01 on him.

 

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