Sabertooth
Footballguy
[SIZE=8.5pt]As I was responding to another post today it occurred to me that I might just want to make a general topic about this. I think I may have stumbled onto a very good tool for generating consistent value and building a strong contender of a dynasty team through the draft. After years of trying to scout players and read blurbs from biased and unbiased beat writers and draftniks and getting mixed results, I started getting lazy. I mean what is the point of finding the next Arian Foster while the next Ray Rice, Lesean McCoy, and CJ Spiller just slid right past you? I started to think there was no rhyme or reason to hitting on these guys.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]This is when I started to turn to the Ted Thompson/Ron Wolf school of draft philosophy. It's pretty simple. There are a lot of variables involved. But what it really boils down to is this: Throw a lot of #### at the wall and see if anything sticks. Rinse and repeat.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Now obviously we don't have 53 roster spots on most teams so you have to modify it a little bit. But there are a few tricks to artificially expand the roster like sliding back and loading draft picks into next season. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]This covers the quantity component of adding good players. Most are going to miss, so make sure you are constantly trying to take more shots. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]The other component is finding quality prospects. So you can break down coaches tape or youtube clips. Or you can jump in and exhaustive research things like combine numbers and BMI for players and do all kinds of math or you can do it how I did it this season with pretty solid results. There is some math involved but it certainly isn't trig or calculus...it's more the type of math [/SIZE][SIZE=8.5pt]this guy[/SIZE][SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE][SIZE=8.5pt]taught you. Here is the big secret....better players generally get drafted earlier. So look at the number next to their name that refers to their draft position. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Two components basically went into my draft this year. The first was making sure I had a lot of picks. I had the first overall pick and traded back to gain more ammo. I then looked mainly at draft position to make those picks within the parameters of my personal team needs. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]In my 2QB league I had the number 1 overall pick and the 9th. I watched guys like Mayock and Jeremiah consistently say how weak this class was for skill position players. So I traded back a few times. From the 1.01 to the 1.05 and then the 1.05 to the 1.09. This sliding back netted me two first rounders for 2014. I get to stash those picks and thus push an asset into the future. This circumvents the roster restrictions. I am able to load value onto my future draft picks which I can use this year in trades during the year or next season. Nothing like dangling multiple first round picks in front of an owner who has no hope of making the playoffs in Week 10 for a guy that can push you over the top. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]With the 1.09 pick I watched Bell, Manuel, Ball, Lacy, Austin, Hopkins, Patterson, and Franklin go off the board. Because this is a 2QB league I had Geno Smith (NFL Pick 39) rated 3rd overall behind only Manuel and Austin. I took Geno happily. It was basically like I'd traded from the 1.01 to the 1.03 and loaded two first rounders into the future. And the future class might be much stronger (looking at you Bridgewater and Lee). [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]With my next pick I reverted to old habits and selected Lattimore (NFL Pick 131) . I talked myself into it and he's basically just going to tie up a roster spot. I should have traded the pick or taken Justin Hunter. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]But I was back on my game the next few picks which were the 3.02 (Keenan Allen NFL Pick 76), 3.05 (Tyler Eifert NFL Pick 21), and 3.06 (Christine Michael NFL Pick 62). [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]By trading back I had the ammo to take those relatively high picks much later and for a far cheaper price. I couldn't believe Allen slid that far, let alone Eifert. I wasn't sold on Michael but just picked him because Pete Carroll picked him in the 2nd round, before guys like Franklin, Lattimore, Randle, and Taylor were picked. He was nearly 100 picks earlier than FBG favorite Zac Stacy.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]So how did the strategy work this season? [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Well since the draft I have added Mike Glennon and Travis Kelce. So my rookies are:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Geno Smith (will get starts this season most likely)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Marcus Lattimore (wasted pick, I should have traded out or taken Justin Hunter) the only guy who didn't fit my gameplan.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Keenan Allen (second day NFL pick who looks to have a legit shot to produce immediately)
Tyler Eifert (NFL first round pick who some are saying is already a top 10 dynasty TE)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Christine Michael (Picked him based solely on his draft slot and it appears to have been my strongest pick of the whole draft)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Mike Glennon (Josh Freeman is still in his make or break year. He was a FA pickup but a second day NFL pick at QB)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Travis Kelce (Just couldn't stand watching him float around in the player pool. I think he's another Shockey just like Reid said. Another second Day NFL pick)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Lots of crap thrown, only one of those players made it past Friday night of the NFL draft and that was Lattimore. I like the rest to contribute. None have been cast aside yet like Zac Stacy and Joe Randle. Flashier picks at the time of this draft in May were Tyler Wilson, Zac Stacy, Matt Barkley, and Da'rick Rodgers. These were the guys being hyped. None appear to be in position to do anything at all this year.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]So throw a lot of #### and the wall and see what sticks. But make sure it's highly drafted #### to get a better result. Let the pros do the scouting. Play the numbers game but play it smart. And while people are dropping picks on guys who are physical specimens like Chris Harper and Quinton Patton, go for the dudes like Marquise Goodwin (NFL pick 78) who was a much higher pick even if it was just the Bills. Turns out he's lighting it up in camp. Go figure. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]This is when I started to turn to the Ted Thompson/Ron Wolf school of draft philosophy. It's pretty simple. There are a lot of variables involved. But what it really boils down to is this: Throw a lot of #### at the wall and see if anything sticks. Rinse and repeat.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Now obviously we don't have 53 roster spots on most teams so you have to modify it a little bit. But there are a few tricks to artificially expand the roster like sliding back and loading draft picks into next season. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]This covers the quantity component of adding good players. Most are going to miss, so make sure you are constantly trying to take more shots. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]The other component is finding quality prospects. So you can break down coaches tape or youtube clips. Or you can jump in and exhaustive research things like combine numbers and BMI for players and do all kinds of math or you can do it how I did it this season with pretty solid results. There is some math involved but it certainly isn't trig or calculus...it's more the type of math [/SIZE][SIZE=8.5pt]this guy[/SIZE][SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE][SIZE=8.5pt]taught you. Here is the big secret....better players generally get drafted earlier. So look at the number next to their name that refers to their draft position. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Two components basically went into my draft this year. The first was making sure I had a lot of picks. I had the first overall pick and traded back to gain more ammo. I then looked mainly at draft position to make those picks within the parameters of my personal team needs. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]In my 2QB league I had the number 1 overall pick and the 9th. I watched guys like Mayock and Jeremiah consistently say how weak this class was for skill position players. So I traded back a few times. From the 1.01 to the 1.05 and then the 1.05 to the 1.09. This sliding back netted me two first rounders for 2014. I get to stash those picks and thus push an asset into the future. This circumvents the roster restrictions. I am able to load value onto my future draft picks which I can use this year in trades during the year or next season. Nothing like dangling multiple first round picks in front of an owner who has no hope of making the playoffs in Week 10 for a guy that can push you over the top. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]With the 1.09 pick I watched Bell, Manuel, Ball, Lacy, Austin, Hopkins, Patterson, and Franklin go off the board. Because this is a 2QB league I had Geno Smith (NFL Pick 39) rated 3rd overall behind only Manuel and Austin. I took Geno happily. It was basically like I'd traded from the 1.01 to the 1.03 and loaded two first rounders into the future. And the future class might be much stronger (looking at you Bridgewater and Lee). [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]With my next pick I reverted to old habits and selected Lattimore (NFL Pick 131) . I talked myself into it and he's basically just going to tie up a roster spot. I should have traded the pick or taken Justin Hunter. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]But I was back on my game the next few picks which were the 3.02 (Keenan Allen NFL Pick 76), 3.05 (Tyler Eifert NFL Pick 21), and 3.06 (Christine Michael NFL Pick 62). [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]By trading back I had the ammo to take those relatively high picks much later and for a far cheaper price. I couldn't believe Allen slid that far, let alone Eifert. I wasn't sold on Michael but just picked him because Pete Carroll picked him in the 2nd round, before guys like Franklin, Lattimore, Randle, and Taylor were picked. He was nearly 100 picks earlier than FBG favorite Zac Stacy.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]So how did the strategy work this season? [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Well since the draft I have added Mike Glennon and Travis Kelce. So my rookies are:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Geno Smith (will get starts this season most likely)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Marcus Lattimore (wasted pick, I should have traded out or taken Justin Hunter) the only guy who didn't fit my gameplan.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Keenan Allen (second day NFL pick who looks to have a legit shot to produce immediately)
Tyler Eifert (NFL first round pick who some are saying is already a top 10 dynasty TE)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Christine Michael (Picked him based solely on his draft slot and it appears to have been my strongest pick of the whole draft)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Mike Glennon (Josh Freeman is still in his make or break year. He was a FA pickup but a second day NFL pick at QB)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Travis Kelce (Just couldn't stand watching him float around in the player pool. I think he's another Shockey just like Reid said. Another second Day NFL pick)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]Lots of crap thrown, only one of those players made it past Friday night of the NFL draft and that was Lattimore. I like the rest to contribute. None have been cast aside yet like Zac Stacy and Joe Randle. Flashier picks at the time of this draft in May were Tyler Wilson, Zac Stacy, Matt Barkley, and Da'rick Rodgers. These were the guys being hyped. None appear to be in position to do anything at all this year.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]So throw a lot of #### and the wall and see what sticks. But make sure it's highly drafted #### to get a better result. Let the pros do the scouting. Play the numbers game but play it smart. And while people are dropping picks on guys who are physical specimens like Chris Harper and Quinton Patton, go for the dudes like Marquise Goodwin (NFL pick 78) who was a much higher pick even if it was just the Bills. Turns out he's lighting it up in camp. Go figure. [/SIZE]