Who do you see as the #4 FF Rookie this year? (1 Viewer)

[easy like sunday morning]

The top three are pretty obvious this year. Who do you see as the next selection outside of need on a FF squad? Consider this with just standard scoring.

 

[Couch Potato]

Most drafts I've seen are going with Brandon Jackson (most are RB hungry). Some with J Russell.

But I think when it all has shaken out in a couple years, Meachem will be the guy people will wish they had taken.

 

[ditka85]

I completely agree. I think Meachem will be a stud. And had I not traded from 1.4 to 1.2, I would have taken Meachem.

 

[EBF]

Unless you're in absolutely desperate need for a RB, the value of the fourth pick is not much greater than the value of the fourteenth pick this year. I'd try to trade down if possible.

I'll provide further analysis once I finish my Hyper rookie draft.

 

[Beaumont]

Unless you're in absolutely desperate need for a RB, the value of the fourth pick is not much greater than the value of the fourteenth pick this year. I'd try to trade down if possible. I'll provide further analysis once I finish my Hyper rookie draft.

I agree.In most of my 16 teamers I have been getting Rice at around 14. Meachem and Rice are roughly equal in my book ...

 

[Challenge Everything]

Draft Quinn at 4... that is the consensus.

 

[lions327]

Draft Quinn at 4... that is the consensus.

 

[duaneok66]

Draft Quinn at 4... that is the consensus.

like the poster above stated, anything from 4-12 or so is wide open . . .

 

[cstu]

Unless you're in absolutely desperate need for a RB, the value of the fourth pick is not much greater than the value of the fourteenth pick this year. I'd try to trade down if possible. I'll provide further analysis once I finish my Hyper rookie draft.

I agree.In most of my 16 teamers I have been getting Rice at around 14. Meachem and Rice are roughly equal in my book ...

Talent-wise, yes, but the Saints passing >>>>> Vikes passing game.

 

[el-gato-grande]

IMO, this was a weak draft once you got past...

Peterson and Lynch at RB

Russell at QB

Calvin Johnson at WR

Olson and Miller at TE

Those were the first tiers and then there was a larger than normal drop off from there. I would definately try to trade down from 1.04, but you might not find many takers.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

IMO, this was a weak draft once you got past...Peterson and Lynch at RBRussell at QBCalvin Johnson at WROlson and Miller at TEThose were the first tiers and then there was a larger than normal drop off from there. I would definately try to trade down from 1.04, but you might not find many takers.

Yeah, once you get past the best WR prospect in a decade, one of the best RB prospects in a decade, the QB with best upside in a decade, another very solid RB prospect, the deepest talent pool at WR I have ever seen, and a couple of decent TEs, it sucks.

 

[corpcow]

Unless you're in absolutely desperate need for a RB, the value of the fourth pick is not much greater than the value of the fourteenth pick this year. I'd try to trade down if possible. I'll provide further analysis once I finish my Hyper rookie draft.

I agree.In most of my 16 teamers I have been getting Rice at around 14. Meachem and Rice are roughly equal in my book ...

I picked up Russell at 1.04 and Rice at 1.12 in one league. I'm happy with that.

 

[switz]

Unless you're in absolutely desperate need for a RB, the value of the fourth pick is not much greater than the value of the fourteenth pick this year. I'd try to trade down if possible. I'll provide further analysis once I finish my Hyper rookie draft.

I agree.In most of my 16 teamers I have been getting Rice at around 14. Meachem and Rice are roughly equal in my book ...

I picked up Russell at 1.04 and Rice at 1.12 in one league. I'm happy with that.

I have 1.3 in my dynasty rookie draft, and am hoping in the second round I can grab Rice.

 

[corpcow]

IMO, this was a weak draft once you got past...Peterson and Lynch at RBRussell at QBCalvin Johnson at WROlson and Miller at TEThose were the first tiers and then there was a larger than normal drop off from there. I would definately try to trade down from 1.04, but you might not find many takers.

Yeah, once you get past the best WR prospect in a decade, one of the best RB prospects in a decade, the QB with best upside in a decade, another very solid RB prospect, the deepest talent pool at WR I have ever seen, and a couple of decent TEs, it sucks.

I think that's the issue - it's a very top-heavy draft. More often than not, a second tier RB is going to be valued above a second tier RB and perhaps before the QBs depending on need and upside. The "problem" with this draft is that that second tier is fairly thin, and I would consider most of them close to 3rd tier. So people still want to take a RB (because that's what they expect to do), but the options aren't too appealing. Most seem to be so high on Jackson for opportunity over talent (I personally think he's talented, but if he were in a different situation most would never consider him in the top half of the 1st). Of course, that's not always the best approach in dynasty. Let's look at the other RBs in the top 20: Michael Bush, who has injuries and a lot in front of him right now. Long term, very high risk, high reward - but tough to take that risk at 1.04 given the broken leg and the possibility that Jordan comes back to full strength. Chris Henry? If he wasn't on Tenn, would you even consider him in the top 10? Lorenzo Booker in Miami? Kenny Irons behind Rudi and, at least for now, Chris Perry? Antonio Pittman behind Bush and Deuce? Leonard might have been on people's radars but certainly drops being behind what many have as the #2 young dynasty prospect. Compounding this, the second tier of WRs are deep and good prospects, but people are all over the place. There's no clear-cut order here between Jarrett, Rice, Meachem and Bowe. I've seen Meachem go as high as 4 and as low as 10. Until I saw some mocks, I was even considering Rice at 1.04 and yet as I mentioned scored him at 1.12. Even Ginn was drafted at #9 overall, and yet FBG and others have him at 16 for fantasy purposes - behind Chris Henry and Booker no less. He could well be a bust and a big reach for Miami as most expect, but he could also be the next S.Smith/Coles/S.Moss. To summarize, I think the reason most people think this draft "sucks" is that, while deep, there isn't clear delineation or order, and it's relatively light on possible RB starters beyond the obvious studs.

 

[corpcow]

Unless you're in absolutely desperate need for a RB, the value of the fourth pick is not much greater than the value of the fourteenth pick this year. I'd try to trade down if possible. I'll provide further analysis once I finish my Hyper rookie draft.

I agree.In most of my 16 teamers I have been getting Rice at around 14. Meachem and Rice are roughly equal in my book ...

Talent-wise, yes, but the Saints passing >>>>> Vikes passing game.

Are we talking in 2007 or for dynasty purposes? Situations change so much from year to year, that almost doesn't matter to me. Talent is king in dynasty leagues.Also consider the Vikes have added a lot of explosive, offensive talent. Tavaris will either start to blossom or I expect you'll see them grab a first rounder or trade for someone next year.

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

I think it has to be Meachem or Brandon Jackson, simply on opportunity alone. While Sidney Rice also is in a good spot, I feel more comfortable with Meachem's prospects in that offense.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

IMO, this was a weak draft once you got past...Peterson and Lynch at RBRussell at QBCalvin Johnson at WROlson and Miller at TEThose were the first tiers and then there was a larger than normal drop off from there. I would definately try to trade down from 1.04, but you might not find many takers.

Yeah, once you get past the best WR prospect in a decade, one of the best RB prospects in a decade, the QB with best upside in a decade, another very solid RB prospect, the deepest talent pool at WR I have ever seen, and a couple of decent TEs, it sucks.

I think that's the issue - it's a very top-heavy draft. More often than not, a second tier RB is going to be valued above a second tier RB and perhaps before the QBs depending on need and upside. The "problem" with this draft is that that second tier is fairly thin, and I would consider most of them close to 3rd tier. So people still want to take a RB (because that's what they expect to do), but the options aren't too appealing. Most seem to be so high on Jackson for opportunity over talent (I personally think he's talented, but if he were in a different situation most would never consider him in the top half of the 1st). Of course, that's not always the best approach in dynasty. Let's look at the other RBs in the top 20: Michael Bush, who has injuries and a lot in front of him right now. Long term, very high risk, high reward - but tough to take that risk at 1.04 given the broken leg and the possibility that Jordan comes back to full strength. Chris Henry? If he wasn't on Tenn, would you even consider him in the top 10? Lorenzo Booker in Miami? Kenny Irons behind Rudi and, at least for now, Chris Perry? Antonio Pittman behind Bush and Deuce? Leonard might have been on people's radars but certainly drops being behind what many have as the #2 young dynasty prospect. Compounding this, the second tier of WRs are deep and good prospects, but people are all over the place. There's no clear-cut order here between Jarrett, Rice, Meachem and Bowe. I've seen Meachem go as high as 4 and as low as 10. Until I saw some mocks, I was even considering Rice at 1.04 and yet as I mentioned scored him at 1.12. Even Ginn was drafted at #9 overall, and yet FBG and others have him at 16 for fantasy purposes - behind Chris Henry and Booker no less. He could well be a bust and a big reach for Miami as most expect, but he could also be the next S.Smith/Coles/S.Moss. To summarize, I think the reason most people think this draft "sucks" is that, while deep, there isn't clear delineation or order, and it's relatively light on possible RB starters beyond the obvious studs.

My opinion is that it is more a matter of perception than the actual talent level of the draft. It is simply SO fantastic at the top, that the 2nd and 3rd tier guys don't seem very good. At RB, that may actually be the case to SOME degree. But WR is extraordinarily deep, QB is deeper than average, and TE is only slightly below average.I remember back when the 2005 RB class was going to be the best/deepest class ever, and we ended up with 4 NFL starters, but only one real true stud and THAT one was a 3rd round sleeper. It actually WAS a very good class, but 2007 RBs have only slightly less potential. There seem to be two "locks" and a couple of other guys who have a decent shot. If you get two or three solid NFL starters out of a draft class, that's probably about what you can expect on average. If you get more (3-4), it's a good class, and if you get more than that, it's a great class. So I expect this class to be basically average at RB.As for WRs, yeah, the rankings vary wildly, but that's becasue so many of them are really really good prospects. Not everyone can be Calvin Johnson, but I'd put the next 4 or 5 guys (Bowe, Meachum, Davis, Gonzales, Rice) up with any other draft class you can throw out there in terms of "potential" in the year they were drafted.Want to compare them to 06's Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, Greg Jennings, Travis Wilson, Derek Hagan?or Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Roddy White?Even '04 which was GREAT, had Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Jenkins. This is the only class that even compares in recent memory.But then you start looking at the NEXT tier (just going by draft status) and that is where the '07 class is just silly good. Compare Jarett, Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Figurs, Laurent Robinson, Jason Hill, James Jones, Mike Walker, Paul Williams, Johnnie Lee Higgins to the 3rd tier of those other classes and it's embarressing. There are guys on that 3rd tier list I'd take over ANY WR prospect from last year except Holmes.

 

[Lash]

IMO, this was a weak draft once you got past...Peterson and Lynch at RBRussell at QBCalvin Johnson at WROlson and Miller at TEThose were the first tiers and then there was a larger than normal drop off from there. I would definately try to trade down from 1.04, but you might not find many takers.

Yeah, once you get past the best WR prospect in a decade, one of the best RB prospects in a decade, the QB with best upside in a decade, another very solid RB prospect, the deepest talent pool at WR I have ever seen, and a couple of decent TEs, it sucks.

the WR depth is incredible, even on down to the names we are not even targeting, there are 5th/6th rd guys who will be studs

 

[el-gato-grande]

IMO, this was a weak draft once you got past...Peterson and Lynch at RBRussell at QBCalvin Johnson at WROlson and Miller at TEThose were the first tiers and then there was a larger than normal drop off from there. I would definately try to trade down from 1.04, but you might not find many takers.

Yeah, once you get past the best WR prospect in a decade, one of the best RB prospects in a decade, the QB with best upside in a decade, another very solid RB prospect, the deepest talent pool at WR I have ever seen, and a couple of decent TEs, it sucks.

the WR depth is incredible, even on down to the names we are not even targeting, there are 5th/6th rd guys who will be studs

OK, OK. I guess I should have qualified my assessment by saying that drafting WR's in the first round of any draft (dynasty, keeper, or redraft) is not my thing. And the original post is about first round value (specifically @ 1.04) and NOT what can be had in the later rounds. HENCE my suggestion to trade down and out of that pick if possible.I know alot of owners who fall in love with WR prospects and routinely commit early draft picks to get them. But I can always seem to find productive WR's year over year on the waiver wire early in the season. RB's - not so much. Teams hoard them like gold and therefore I believe it is foolish to draft WR's that high. Especially when they typically take years to develop. Just my