who do you see slipping in drafts farther than they should? (1 Viewer)

[prgromek]

1) Jamaal Charles - I have seen this guy slip to the 3rd round in PPR drafts and that is robbery. I have a hard time seeing any scenario where he doesn't get the bulk of the work. And his handcuff Jones can be had pretty cheaply.

2) Ryan Matthews - people are hesitant to take rookie RBs and so every year there is value to be had. Matthews is in an ideal situation. Best and Spiller seem to be getting the hype now, not Matthews.

3) LeSean McCoy - in a PPR league what is not to like about this guy and his situation in Philly? would gladly take him over Benson, Moreno, Greene, Addai, Grant in a PPR

4) Marques Colston - you can get him as your WR2 now. Last time I checked the talent is still there and Drew Brees is still throwing the ball.

5) Dwayne Bowe - people are shying away from this guy like the plague. I am taking advantage.

6) Terrell Owens - he burned quite a few people last year but the price is right and he has plenty left in the tank.

7) Ronnie Brown - when healthy (I know, I know) will produce

8) Joe Flacco - no respect

9) Vince Young - why will this guy not have a good fantasy year?

10) Lee Evans - really a value pick now

11) Jerricho Cotchery - a forgotten man but skills are still there and can be had for nothing

12) Brent Celek - many still don't believe he's an elite TE

 

[BobbyLayne]

Bowe and I'll add Cedric Benson.

I think he's a great RB2 because you know he's going to be consistent just based on the # of touches, but I see him getting passed over.

Bowe is a target magnet; he's a great WR2, especially in PPR.

 

[dcgangstas]

The Manning that never gets any respect, Eli Manning.

Kid threw for 4000 yards and 27 TDs, and has a solid WR corps and a good TE in Kevin Boss. Bradshaw will move the chains, but Eli should match last years' totals.

 

[Mistabishi]

I could not believe how far Celek slipped in our draft. Also, Mathews has surprised me how late he is going due to being a rookie. I can understand Best mainly because he plays on Detroit and the jury is still out but when its out that Mathews will get 300 + carries in the SD offense that should be taken more seriously.

 

[shredhead]

I got Ronnie Brown and Flacco in a draft last night, almost took Matthews, but passed to get Reggie Wayne as a WR2 in the 3rd round Ryan Matthews did go the very next pick.

I'll add LT to your list.

 

[dharmapunk]

Donald Driver went in the 11th round of our PPR dynasty league.

I know he might only have 1 more good year in him, but that's low for a guy who will haul in 70-80 receptions for 900-1100 yards.

 

[dharmapunk]

Also, people drafted ahead of Steven Jackson (STL) at pick 3.7 -

1. Antonio Gates

2. Dallas Clark

3. Marques Colston

4. Michael Crabtree

I know the Rams suck, but SJ is as safe a RB#2 as you can find.

 

[timschochet]

I got Clinton Portis in the 9th round Friday night in a 10 team league. Portis is still only 29, he is the starter, I'm not sure who he's going to share time with exactly. He could still wind up being a bellcow I think.

 

[Montana16]

9) Vince Young - why will this guy not have a good fantasy year?

12) Brent Celek - many still don't believe he's an elite TE

Young had a chance to be great after he brokwe out and crushed owners hopes with crap play. celek was great with donovan. TE are products of their system unless their HOF like gates, sharpe etc.

 

[faux_bear]

how about a guy that has eight 1000 yard seasons in the last 9 years but is treated like a dead guy in drafts year in and year out...

Derrick Mason. I got him at 8.10 in my PPR league (after Robert Meachem, Devin Aromashodu, Braylon Edwards) and am pretty pleased about it.

 

[Tong Po]

9) Vince Young - why will this guy not have a good fantasy year?

12) Brent Celek - many still don't believe he's an elite TE

Young had a chance to be great after he brokwe out and crushed owners hopes with crap play. celek was great with donovan. TE are products of their system unless their HOF like gates, sharpe etc.

Did you watch the Eagles last year? Because Celek's best games last year came with Kolb at quarterback.

 

[Manster]

Hines Ward

 

[KCC]

Malcolm Floyd

 

[Alberta Clipper]

S Moss & Mason - 2 old fart WR that will deliver one more year of safe rec stats greater than their current ADP

 

[Chaser1439]

PPR

5th round - Reggie Bush

6th round - Bradshaw

7th round - TO

8th round - LT

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

agree with Eli Manning, but the really shocking one to me is Matt Ryan. In my 12 team redraft tonight, I got him at 10.11 as a mid range QB2. He's not flashy but that's just insane value.

 

[Montana16]

9) Vince Young - why will this guy not have a good fantasy year?

12) Brent Celek - many still don't believe he's an elite TE

Young had a chance to be great after he brokwe out and crushed owners hopes with crap play. celek was great with donovan. TE are products of their system unless their HOF like gates, sharpe etc.

Did you watch the Eagles last year? Because Celek's best games last year came with Kolb at quarterback.

I think those games are decieving. Kolb had inflated stats for those games and i like kolb to not be a top 12 qb this year. Celeks just a dude. interchangeable with any other white guy his size. If the team throws to the te alot, the te will have good stats. I just see nothing special from celek and an unproven qb.

 

[gheemony]

Mason, Lee Evans, and Reggie Bush (10th round in league with keepers, so really later in pure redraft terms).

 

[Wally Cleaver]

Pierre Thomas went much later in both of my drafts than his adp would indicate...

I am not sure what kind of year he is in for as he was not one of my targets but he seems to be slipping.

 

[Go deep]

The Manning that never gets any respect, Eli Manning. Kid threw for 4000 yards and 27 TDs, and has a solid WR corps and a good TE in Kevin Boss. Bradshaw will move the chains, but Eli should match last years' totals.

I was really begining to think i was the only person who liked Eli this year. I have been grabbing him in the 8th/9th rounds of all my drafts as my starting QB. He is not a sexy pick, but 4000 yards last year, a good young WR trio(maybe more), plus he never misses a game. I actually think last year is almost his floor. The defense probably isnt go to be much better, and although Bradshaw is looking good, its not like they have a great running game, so they should pass plenty.I truly think he could put up top 5 QB numbers this year, at least pretty close to it. Also, i really like and agree with most of the OP's list. You probably hit on 6-7 of the guys who came to my mind when i read the thread title.

 

[Go deep]

Mason, Lee Evans, and Reggie Bush (10th round in league with keepers, so really later in pure redraft terms).

Not a fan of the guy, but another good one. I have seen him make it to the 9th round in a PPR league.

 

[Go deep]

9) Vince Young - why will this guy not have a good fantasy year?

12) Brent Celek - many still don't believe he's an elite TE

Young had a chance to be great after he brokwe out and crushed owners hopes with crap play. celek was great with donovan. TE are products of their system unless their HOF like gates, sharpe etc.

Did you watch the Eagles last year? Because Celek's best games last year came with Kolb at quarterback.

I think those games are decieving. Kolb had inflated stats for those games and i like kolb to not be a top 12 qb this year. Celeks just a dude. interchangeable with any other white guy his size. If the team throws to the te alot, the te will have good stats. I just see nothing special from celek and an unproven qb.

You say his stats were only good because of Donovan, then someone points out they were better with Kolb, and you call those numbers deceiving?

What does him being white have to do with it?

 

[Go deep]

agree with Eli Manning, but the really shocking one to me is Matt Ryan. In my 12 team redraft tonight, I got him at 10.11 as a mid range QB2. He's not flashy but that's just insane value.

Flacco, Favre, Ryan, Manning, Kolb, Roethlisberger.....all these guys are going later than they should. This might be one of the best years to wait until 8th/9th round to take your starting QB.

 

[bonesman]

Malcolm Floyd

Got him at the 8/9 turn (pick 97) as a WR 4 in a PPR league... I'm not sure what his ADP is, but that seems incredibly cheap considering the opportunities he'll see on that offense.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Not so much who fell but who rose that caused some names to fall.

The Best/Foster mania saw names like J Charles in the 4th round! That's just ridiculous. I was staring at him early third and licking my chops but Ryan Grant was also there. Some of the preseason hype is getting out of hand, imo.

 

[I was in the pool]

Roethlisberger consistently going after round 9 in my 12-team PPR's right now - that's crazy. I have him ranked as the #8 QB after me returns (PPG).

Also - Why can't people wait for a defense and kicker?? Only 1 other team in the 3 drafts I've held so far has waited until the last two rounds. And one of the drafts I got Akers after everyone already took a kicker....people just can't help but fill their starting roster can they?

 

[dharmapunk]

The Manning that never gets any respect, Eli Manning. Kid threw for 4000 yards and 27 TDs, and has a solid WR corps and a good TE in Kevin Boss. Bradshaw will move the chains, but Eli should match last years' totals.

If could redraft, I would go all WRs and RBs early and scoop up Eli and Flacco in the 7th-10th rounds. Both will be among the best draft values this year. To put Eli's value in perspective: Jay Cutler went late in the third round of my draft. Eli went at the top of the 7th. I guarantee Eli outperforms Cutler this year.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The Manning that never gets any respect, Eli Manning. Kid threw for 4000 yards and 27 TDs, and has a solid WR corps and a good TE in Kevin Boss. Bradshaw will move the chains, but Eli should match last years' totals.

Here's the problem though. Even with those numbers he was what, QB11 last year? That puts you at the bottom of your FF league in QB production if you only start one QB, even after injuries (meaning he was even worse than that in ppg). And that was a career year for the guy in a season that a team that normally loves to run the ball had lots of injuries at running back and on defense.Does anyone really foresee Eli throwing for 4500 yards and 35+ TDs next year? Because for a guy that doesn't run, that's what it's going to take to crack the top QB spots nowadays. I think the likelihood that Eli regresses to his mean is MUCH MUCH MUCH higher than the likelihood that Eli puts up a season like that.People look like Eli as some hidden gem that people are overlooking, but it's the Eli supporters that are overlooking stuff. The whole basis for the argument is that he threw for 4000/27 last year. This isn't 5 years ago where that meant you were a top 3 QB. 4000/27 is the new 3200/21. Half the league is throwing for it.Eli provides a guy who will kind of keep pace if you're waiting late to get a quarterback, which is ok if your strategy is to wait super late to start looking for QBs. Let's get over this idea that he's some magical hidden top 5 player at his position though, because QB11 is the best he's ever finished, even last year.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

The Manning that never gets any respect, Eli Manning. Kid threw for 4000 yards and 27 TDs, and has a solid WR corps and a good TE in Kevin Boss. Bradshaw will move the chains, but Eli should match last years' totals.

Here's the problem though. Even with those numbers he was what, QB11 last year? That puts you at the bottom of your FF league in QB production if you only start one QB, even after injuries (meaning he was even worse than that in ppg). And that was a career year for the guy in a season that a team that normally loves to run the ball had lots of injuries at running back and on defense.Does anyone really foresee Eli throwing for 4500 yards and 35+ TDs next year? Because for a guy that doesn't run, that's what it's going to take to crack the top QB spots nowadays. I think the likelihood that Eli regresses to his mean is MUCH MUCH MUCH higher than the likelihood that Eli puts up a season like that.People look like Eli as some hidden gem that people are overlooking, but it's the Eli supporters that are overlooking stuff. The whole basis for the argument is that he threw for 4000/27 last year. This isn't 5 years ago where that meant you were a top 3 QB. 4000/27 is the new 3200/21. Half the league is throwing for it.Eli provides a guy who will kind of keep pace if you're waiting late to get a quarterback, which is ok if your strategy is to wait super late to start looking for QBs. Let's get over this idea that he's some magical hidden top 5 player at his position though, because QB11 is the best he's ever finished, even last year.

He's a bargain not because half the league is throwing for 4000+/25+ these days, but because practically nobody is throwing for significantly more.Nab Eli and you've spent a mid rounder (or a couple bucks at auction) and if he gives you performance like that again, you've pretty much got a coin flip against most of the QB's who went several rounds (or many times the auction dollars) later.He's slipping because of his value, not his ranking. If you want to say he's not slipping, every other QB in the top ten is simply going way too early, I might buy it. But we'd be saying the same thing.

 

[skillz]

Some notables from my 12 team, non PPR yesterday

Clinton Portis - 8th round

Hines Ward - 8th round (Mike Wallace went two rounds earlier)

Santana Moss- 10th round

Zach Miller - 12th round

Lee Evans - 14th round

Darren McFadden - 13th round (couldn't figure this one out since Bush was hurt the night before)

ETA: Big Ben in 11th round

 

[fightingillini]

The Manning that never gets any respect, Eli Manning. Kid threw for 4000 yards and 27 TDs, and has a solid WR corps and a good TE in Kevin Boss. Bradshaw will move the chains, but Eli should match last years' totals.

Here's the problem though. Even with those numbers he was what, QB11 last year? That puts you at the bottom of your FF league in QB production if you only start one QB, even after injuries (meaning he was even worse than that in ppg). And that was a career year for the guy in a season that a team that normally loves to run the ball had lots of injuries at running back and on defense.Does anyone really foresee Eli throwing for 4500 yards and 35+ TDs next year? Because for a guy that doesn't run, that's what it's going to take to crack the top QB spots nowadays. I think the likelihood that Eli regresses to his mean is MUCH MUCH MUCH higher than the likelihood that Eli puts up a season like that.People look like Eli as some hidden gem that people are overlooking, but it's the Eli supporters that are overlooking stuff. The whole basis for the argument is that he threw for 4000/27 last year. This isn't 5 years ago where that meant you were a top 3 QB. 4000/27 is the new 3200/21. Half the league is throwing for it.Eli provides a guy who will kind of keep pace if you're waiting late to get a quarterback, which is ok if your strategy is to wait super late to start looking for QBs. Let's get over this idea that he's some magical hidden top 5 player at his position though, because QB11 is the best he's ever finished, even last year.

He's a bargain not because half the league is throwing for 4000+/25+ these days, but because practically nobody is throwing for significantly more.Nab Eli and you've spent a mid rounder (or a couple bucks at auction) and if he gives you performance like that again, you've pretty much got a coin flip against most of the QB's who went several rounds (or many times the auction dollars) later.He's slipping because of his value, not his ranking. If you want to say he's not slipping, every other QB in the top ten is simply going way too early, I might buy it. But we'd be saying the same thing.

I have E Manning at around 4000/28 this year, and for example, Tom Brady at 4200/29, or Schaub at 4500/29. You have to spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on Brady or Schaub, and you can get Eli at least 3 rounds later. The difference isn't that much. Now I do agree with FreeBagel that Eli Manning is not likely going to be a top 5 QB. But he doesn't have to to be of significant value. Just coming close to matching Brady or Rivers or Schaub's numbers while being drafted 3-4 rounds later is good enough.

 

[skillz]

agree with Eli Manning, but the really shocking one to me is Matt Ryan. In my 12 team redraft tonight, I got him at 10.11 as a mid range QB2. He's not flashy but that's just insane value.

Flacco, Favre, Ryan, Manning, Kolb, Roethlisberger.....all these guys are going later than they should. This might be one of the best years to wait until 8th/9th round to take your starting QB.

Yep. 12 team league. We had owners reach on Flacco and Ryan but the others just fell like a rock. Seemed like after the Big 7 were gone the remaining owners were content with either Favre, Eli, Kolb, Cutler and just kept waiting for another person to take a QB out of the group. As no one continued to do so, they all continued to drop. Eli went round 6, followed by Favre in 7 and then Cutler in 8 and Kolb in 8.

 

[skillz]

Malcolm Floyd

Got him at the 8/9 turn (pick 97) as a WR 4 in a PPR league... I'm not sure what his ADP is, but that seems incredibly cheap considering the opportunities he'll see on that offense.

I was targetting him at top of Round 10 - was going to take him earlier but thought he'd drop another round and I got greedy. He went a few picks ahead of me at end of Round 9. Great value there.

 

[chihawk]

Also, people drafted ahead of Steven Jackson (STL) at pick 3.7 -1. Antonio Gates2. Dallas Clark3. Marques Colston4. Michael CrabtreeI know the Rams suck, but SJ is as safe a RB#2 as you can find.

 

[Rick James]

Jamaal Charles at 4.07. Current ADP of 3.03

Jonathan Stewart at 6.07. Current ADP of 4.09

Jerome Harrison at 9.06. Current ADP of 7.07

 

[Deranged Hermit]

I stole Harvin in my draft this past Saturday and in an auction a few Sunday's ago (heck, even in League 2 of the Ultimate Survivor contest). IMO, lots of people will be kicking themselves about that.

 

[bucsbaby]

In a recent draft I was in (12 team ppr, shallow benches) these are some value picks I scooped up:

-Jamaal Charles at 4.01

-Forte at 7.12

-Hakeem Nicks at 8.1

-Jerome Harrison at 11.12 (ended up having to drop him due to shallow benches and need elsewhere, but he hasn't been picked up yet, so it's like he was undrafted)

 

[Desert_Power]

I got Clinton Portis in the 9th round Friday night in a 10 team league. Portis is still only 29, he is the starter, I'm not sure who he's going to share time with exactly. He could still wind up being a bellcow I think.

Grabbed Portis as my RB4 on both of my teams last week. All indications are that he will be the workhorse in a Shanahan offense, if he plays 16 games I expect top 15 easy out of him.I also have grabbed Evans on both of my teams as WR4. I know he isn't really a threat to crack the top 10 like earlier in his career, but that is silly value.

 

[ufshowboat]

Agree on Bowe. I expect that offense to be much better this season and people are overlooking how much talent Bowe has. Targets and also a great red zone WR. There were so many things going bad for him last year that really held him back and his talent is being overlooked due to his lack of production last season.

Agree on S Moss big time. I'm not saying that Washington's O will be anything special. But Moss is going to be McNabb's fav target in a way similar to DJax was. I really see him making a bunch of plays in that system and he is falling very cheap. The upside for him having a stud season is still there in my opinion. I would actually say its more likely than not to happen due to the position he is in to succeed. Just seems like the other guys around his ADP have a small chance to blow up, but not the same chance that Moss has.

ZACH MILLER. Big time. I just drafted Dallas Clark as my #1, but I HAD to also grab Miller in the 12th because he fell over and over. I was watching him for like 4 rounds and was going crazy seeing people pass on him. He is the #1 target in a non-Jarmarcus offense. With a solid run game and some young speedy WRs stretching things out, Miller is just going to beast. I don't care what you think of Campbell, Miller had 66 for 800 with JAMARCUS RUSSEL at QB. How in the world can you predict anything less than 75+ catches without him and with Campbell, who obviously loves him some TEs as we saw in Washington with Cooley and Davis. There were at least 6-7 TEs drafted ahead of him that had NO business there because they have NO shot at getting that much attention.

Sorry for rambling.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Celeks just a dude. interchangeable with any other white guy his size.

What does race have anything to do with him as a TE? Im offended by this.

 

[MNTom]

Jamaal Charles at 4.07. Current ADP of 3.03Jonathan Stewart at 6.07. Current ADP of 4.09Jerome Harrison at 9.06. Current ADP of 7.07

I got Stewart at 5.11 in a 12 team draft. Couldn't believe he was there.

 

[Tong Po]

Celeks just a dude. interchangeable with any other white guy his size.

What does race have anything to do with him as a TE? Im offended by this.

Apparently... any 6'4" 250 pound white guy can catch close to 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns as an NFL tight end.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Roethlisberger was getting flat out ignored in our draft. Take him as trade bait if he falls into Alex Smith/Vince Young territory.

I also think Leon Washington is getting ignored. If you believe pre-season SOS rankings are worth a dime, Seattle has an easy rushing schedule.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Sidney rice just went undrafted. Most the league makes playoffs, all I really am focused on is week 14-16. He worth a spot for those weeks?

 

[DoubleG]

Celeks just a dude. interchangeable with any other white guy his size.

What does race have anything to do with him as a TE? Im offended by this.

All kinds of stupid in the statement.

 

[fightingillini]

Sidney rice just went undrafted. Most the league makes playoffs, all I really am focused on is week 14-16. He worth a spot for those weeks?

Absoulutely. He probably comes back Week 8 or 9, so he has a few weeks to work out the rust and get into better playing shape. He could really help a fantasy team down the stretch. MIN schedule during weeks 14-16 is a little tough (NYG, CHI, at PHI), but if your league goes to Week 17, then having DET would make a great matchup for Rice.

 

[theplayer11]

Not so much who fell but who rose that caused some names to fall.The Best/Foster mania saw names like J Charles in the 4th round! That's just ridiculous. I was staring at him early third and licking my chops but Ryan Grant was also there. Some of the preseason hype is getting out of hand, imo.

Both Best and Foster are probably safer picks than Charles..although I do like him

 

[skillz]

Roethlisberger was getting flat out ignored in our draft. Take him as trade bait if he falls into Alex Smith/Vince Young territory.I also think Leon Washington is getting ignored. If you believe pre-season SOS rankings are worth a dime, Seattle has an easy rushing schedule.

Forsett actually went 7 rounds before Leon in my draft yesterday so Leon is definitely one to try to grab later in the draft. When I grabbed Ben in the 9th (after Young went but before Alex Smith) I thought folks would be upset that he went right before them but they didn't really care that he was gone. I really think he's going to be a great QB to have for the second half of the season - more so than the Alex Smiths of the NFL.

 

[fightingillini]

I stole Harvin in my draft this past Saturday and in an auction a few Sunday's ago (heck, even in League 2 of the Ultimate Survivor contest). IMO, lots of people will be kicking themselves about that.

Ditto in my auction draft last Thursday. Got Harvin for $4 as my WR3.....$100 cap. He was nominated very late, and most had only a few bucks left and needed to fill out their roster with $1 players. I was the only owner with enough ammo (had about $11 left at the time and 5 spots to fill) to easily outbid the other owner with some cap space. I had him worth about $8-9 once Sidney Rice was going to miss half the season.I will be trying to roster Harvin in my next two drafts as well. His ADP is the end of round 5 (12 teamer) or end of round 6 (10 teamer). You can get solid WR2 numbers from Harvin, so the end of round 5 is a bargain.

 

[gandalas]

Hines Ward

Ditto. Have ended up with him in like 4 drafts this offseason because he just keeps dropping, not because I necessarily love him.