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Who do you think will be a Fanatsy Football 1st round bust? (1 Viewer)

On The Rocks

On The Rocks

Footballguy
To keep this limited, lets say; based on the top 12 players on the redraft FBG Expert Rankings as of today. And lets say it is a PPR draft:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson

2. Steven Jackson

3. Larry Johnson

4. Frank Gore

5. Shaun Alexander

6. Brian Westbrook

7. Willie Parker

8. Joseph Addai

9. Reggie Bush

10. Laurence Maroney

11. Rudi Johnson

12. Clinton Portis

I have a back and forth feeling about both Maroney and Portis.

 
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If PPR, Rudi isn't worth 11th. This is a problem with using FBG scoring rankings for a PPR bust pick.

Otherwise, I'll go on a whim and say Gore.

 
Gore or Rudi.

Gore will not come close to last years #'s which will make it his owners angry. They'll still be OK, but he won't be top 10.

Rudi has got all these carries in the past because his competition has been on the IR. Now they bring in Irons and Perry might be coming back from injury. I see his numbers going way down.

 
Larry Johnson is my nomination for a first round bust.

Questionable QB play, still no WR's to speak about (Rookie WR won't make much of an impact this year) and another all world lineman has retired this year from that KC O-Line.

 
Larry Johnson will not be a bust of the '03 Barlow variety, but I think people taking him with any pick earlier than 5 in PPR leagues are in for a disappointment this year.

 
Judging by what looks to me as the toughest schedule in football this year, I'd have to say there's a decent chance LT does not finish as #1 RB. :popcorn: Not saying he will have a "bad" year but at an ADP of 1 there is only room for underperformance.

 
i don't really see any 1st round busts. i don't think an injury makes someone a bust. shiot happens. injury history, or potential should be a factor as to where you draft someone. if you take gore at four. you should already know his knees or shoulders could go at any time. if this happens, who's fault is it, yours or his?

in PPR leagues, i don't see maroney as a 1st rounder. in fact, i don't see him as a 1st round pick period right now. i want to know he is going to be the primary back, that he can handle that job, and his shoulders are ok first.

in a non PPR league, i think you'd have to be dreaming, or just plain stupid, to take bush in the 1st round.

 
Portis.

Being banged up this early in the year can't be a good thing. Also, I think WASH will take it easy on him since they have a very capable ball carrier in Betts.

 
I would go with Alexander.

He'll still probably put up solid numbers, but his ranking seems to project numbers reasonably in line with his big years. I'll call last year a mulligan with the injury, but I think he starts to noticeably slip this year after years of an intense workload.

 
I think Addai, Rudi, and Portis will find themselves out of the Top 12. They will not necessarily be "busts", but I get the feeling they will be overvalued. As for a true bust, something does not sit right with me with Addai being ranked so high. I can see the Colts having a bit of a Super Bowl hangover and although addai looked good when he played, he always had rhodes there to spell him.

 
zamboni said:
I would go with Alexander. He'll still probably put up solid numbers, but his ranking seems to project numbers reasonably in line with his big years. I'll call last year a mulligan with the injury, but I think he starts to noticeably slip this year after years of an intense workload.
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:goodposting: Count me in also. Alexander will not do well because the OL failing.
 
Portis IMO isn't a 1st round pick anyway, but he and LJ are the best bust candidates...Alexander also.

Addai is IMO easiliy one of the safest picks this side of LT.

 
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PPR - easily Gore. Norv Turner is PPR Gold.

Thats not to say Gore will not have a good season, but I would be willing to wager the receptions go down.

 
4. Frank Gore

6. Brian Westbrook

8. Joseph Addai

9. Reggie Bush

10. Laurence Maroney

None of them will be top 10 RBs.

 
perry147 said:
zamboni said:
I would go with Alexander. He'll still probably put up solid numbers, but his ranking seems to project numbers reasonably in line with his big years. I'll call last year a mulligan with the injury, but I think he starts to noticeably slip this year after years of an intense workload.
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:rolleyes: Count me in also. Alexander will not do well because the OL failing.
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Ditto. I'm having nothing to do with him this year at anywhere near his ADP.This should have been set up as a poll.
 
Mr. Peterson said:
Gore or Rudi.

Gore will not come close to last years #'s which will make it his owners angry. They'll still be OK, but he won't be top 10.

Rudi has got all these carries in the past because his competition has been on the IR. Now they bring in Irons and Perry might be coming back from injury. I see his numbers going way down.
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What are you basing this on? He is the focal point of the offence, has no competition for carries, and has incredible talent. He also is on a team that is poised to score a bunch of points this year.I look at him as one of the safer first round picks.

 
zoonation said:
Mr. Peterson said:
Gore or Rudi.

Gore will not come close to last years #'s which will make it his owners angry. They'll still be OK, but he won't be top 10.

Rudi has got all these carries in the past because his competition has been on the IR. Now they bring in Irons and Perry might be coming back from injury. I see his numbers going way down.
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What are you basing this on? He is the focal point of the offence, has no competition for carries, and has incredible talent. He also is on a team that is poised to score a bunch of points this year.I look at him as one of the safer first round picks.
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I'm a Niners fan and like Gore as much as the next guy but could you explain the bolded part?
 
This is a tough call, but I would have to say Alexander and then Gore. But with the lack of Rb's out there you cant pass up on either one in the first round unless you have one of the top 3 picks. Wasnt LJ the #2 back last year by the way?

I took him as my second pick and although he didnt have 2005 numbers he still was worthy of his pick, my goldmine pick though was Parker late in the second...

 
Mr. Peterson said:
Gore or Rudi. Gore will not come close to last years #'s which will make it his owners angry. They'll still be OK, but he won't be top 10.Rudi has got all these carries in the past because his competition has been on the IR. Now they bring in Irons and Perry might be coming back from injury. I see his numbers going way down.
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:excited: no way Gore repeats..Bush will NOT finish in the top 10.neither will Maroney
 
On The Rocks said:
To keep this limited, lets say; based on the top 12 players on the redraft FBG Expert Rankings as of today. And lets say it is a PPR draft:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson

2. Steven Jackson

3. Larry Johnson

4. Frank Gore

5. Shaun Alexander

6. Brian Westbrook

7. Willie Parker

8. Joseph Addai

9. Reggie Bush

10. Laurence Maroney

11. Rudi Johnson

12. Clinton Portis

I have a back and forth feeling about both Maroney and Portis.
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Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Reggie Bush, and Laurence Maroney are my four big "First Round Red Flags".
 
On The Rocks said:
To keep this limited, lets say; based on the top 12 players on the redraft FBG Expert Rankings as of today. And lets say it is a PPR draft:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson

2. Steven Jackson

3. Larry Johnson

4. Frank Gore

5. Shaun Alexander

6. Brian Westbrook

7. Willie Parker

8. Joseph Addai

9. Reggie Bush

10. Laurence Maroney

11. Rudi Johnson

12. Clinton Portis

I have a back and forth feeling about both Maroney and Portis.
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I think Maroney. He'll have decent rushing yards but he will end being light on TDs compared to where people are projecting him (IMO he'll be in the 6-8TD range).
 
Everybody wants to just write off Alexander's season as an abberation because of the broken foot. To be honest, I'm more concerned about what I saw while Alexander was on the field last year than his injury. In the three weeks Alexander played before the injury he average 2.9 yards per carry and zero TD's. He finished the season with a respectable 3.6 yds per but in his 7 games to close out 2006 if you take away a MAMMOTH game at home against the Packers where he rang up 40 carries for 201 yards, he had 147 carries for 508 yds (2.9 yds per attempt) for the season.

Mark my words, there was more going on in Seattle last year than hairline fractures when you read between the lines. The loss of All-World tackle Steve Hutchinson hurt this team.

 
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - can't pass up. May not finish #1, but if healthy no way he's under top 3.

2. Steven Jackson - same as above.

3. Larry Johnson - some red flags, but no solid reason he doesn't have a very good, top 5 year.

4. Frank Gore - I think he peaked last season, but I don't see him falling below the top 10 with some solid top 5 potential. #4 is maybe a little high for me, but certainly not a bust.

5. Shaun Alexander - I think he's back strong but with a worse O-line. Solid to finish top 10. #5 is about right.

6. Brian Westbrook - My feeling is he gets injured this year. I will be avoiding him in drafts. Don't know if that is a "bust" prediction as I think he's top 5 when at full strength.

7. Willie Parker - Should match last year, no bust here.

8. Joseph Addai - Polarizing at the moment. Could bust, could boom. Gamble pick. (I'm leaning toward bust)

9. Reggie Bush - PPR = :shrug: .......non PPR = just top 20

10. Laurence Maroney - probably not first round material. Too streaky in NE to be a #1 back in FF; bust if taken this early.

11. Rudi Johnson - solid week in and week out but not spectacular. Certainly not a bust, though.

12. Clinton Portis - Big ????'s with competition from Betts & health. I think bust.

 
To me it seems like one of the top 5 backs will have a subpar season, perhaps due to injury, and not necessarily their injury but key linemen and other skill position players going down. If I had to venture I guess on bust candidates I'd say:

Alexander -- he is over 30, the mileage is starting to pile up

Gore - loss of Turner & somewhat likely that injury-prone Djax and Vernon Davis, primary weapons that will keep the box without 8-9 men, may miss a few games here and there.

 
FantasyTrader said:
Everybody wants to just write off Alexander's season as an abberation because of the broken foot. To be honest, I'm more concerned about what I saw while Alexander was on the field last year than his injury. In the three weeks Alexander played before the injury he average 2.9 yards per carry and zero TD's. He finished the season with a respectable 3.6 yds per but in his 7 games to close out 2006 if you take away a MAMMOTH game at home against the Packers where he rang up 40 carries for 201 yards, he had 147 carries for 508 yds (2.9 yds per attempt) for the season. Mark my words, there was more going on in Seattle last year than hairline fractures when you read between the lines. The loss of All-World tackle Steve Hutchinson hurt this team.
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You make some good points. SA was hardly awe-inspiring even before the injury. I also think that now he has his money, the motivation factor isn't nearly as strong.
 
einstein2u said:
with all these bust.....i might go WR WR
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Bear in mind that elite WR scoring has been declining in recent years and the players ranking that high have rotated so there are just as many question marks at WR. Lower top end WR scoring = tighter scoring bandwidth = less value.
 
zamboni said:
FantasyTrader said:
Everybody wants to just write off Alexander's season as an abberation because of the broken foot. To be honest, I'm more concerned about what I saw while Alexander was on the field last year than his injury. In the three weeks Alexander played before the injury he average 2.9 yards per carry and zero TD's. He finished the season with a respectable 3.6 yds per but in his 7 games to close out 2006 if you take away a MAMMOTH game at home against the Packers where he rang up 40 carries for 201 yards, he had 147 carries for 508 yds (2.9 yds per attempt) for the season.

Mark my words, there was more going on in Seattle last year than hairline fractures when you read between the lines. The loss of All-World tackle Steve Hutchinson hurt this team.
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You make some good points. SA was hardly awe-inspiring even before the injury. I also think that now he has his money, the motivation factor isn't nearly as strong.
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The injury took place in week one against the Lions no?And his play was affected by that....before they sat him down.

I don't think he looked bad after he returned.

 
What's deceiving about SJax is that if you take away that G.B. game he averaged the same 2.9 yards he ave. in the first few games of the season. I'm not saying he looked AWEFUL, but for the 5th overall pick, I'm looking for a little better than "not aweful".

 
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On The Rocks said:
zamboni said:
FantasyTrader said:
Everybody wants to just write off Alexander's season as an abberation because of the broken foot. To be honest, I'm more concerned about what I saw while Alexander was on the field last year than his injury. In the three weeks Alexander played before the injury he average 2.9 yards per carry and zero TD's. He finished the season with a respectable 3.6 yds per but in his 7 games to close out 2006 if you take away a MAMMOTH game at home against the Packers where he rang up 40 carries for 201 yards, he had 147 carries for 508 yds (2.9 yds per attempt) for the season.

Mark my words, there was more going on in Seattle last year than hairline fractures when you read between the lines. The loss of All-World tackle Steve Hutchinson hurt this team.
Click to expand...
You make some good points. SA was hardly awe-inspiring even before the injury. I also think that now he has his money, the motivation factor isn't nearly as strong.
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The injury took place in week one against the Lions no?And his play was affected by that....before they sat him down.

I don't think he looked bad after he returned.
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SA averaged a smidge above 100 yards rushing per game once he came back. Post injury, he was on a rate to score 11 TD last year when he was probably not 100% healthy. His lack of receiving yards won't help his fantasy value, though. I certainly don't expect 20 whatever TD again.
 
On The Rocks said:
To keep this limited, lets say; based on the top 12 players on the redraft FBG Expert Rankings as of today. And lets say it is a PPR draft:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson

2. Steven Jackson

3. Larry Johnson

4. Frank Gore

5. Shaun Alexander

6. Brian Westbrook

7. Willie Parker

8. Joseph Addai

9. Reggie Bush

10. Laurence Maroney

11. Rudi Johnson

12. Clinton Portis

I have a back and forth feeling about both Maroney and Portis.
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Westbrook could suffer if McNabb remains injured and Hunt plays well and steals some PT.Not a true "bust", but a serious hit to the #6 slot.

Rudi has an issue with his very limited ceiling. He is all about consistency and quantity, any change to that would hurt greatly.

Clinton just seems to be a poor choice at #12 with Betts around.

 
FantasyTrader said:
What's deceiving about SJax is that if you take away that G.B. game he averaged the same 2.9 yards he ave. in the first few games of the season. I'm not saying he looked AWEFUL, but for the 5th overall pick, I'm looking for a little better than "not aweful".
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You must be talking about SA not SJAX.
 
Here are a few names to maybe replace those who fall out of the top 10:

McGahee, Ronnie Brown, Travis Henry, maybe even Edge.

 
einstein2u said:
with all these bust.....i might go WR WRpersonally...i have red flags on LJ, Gore, Alexander, Portis, Morency.
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Yudkin already went over the problem with WRs. The real value late in the first is going RB-Manning (or Manning-RB if you don't think he'll last to you in the second). RB-Manning-Gates is the beginning of a championship-caliber draft.
 
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