Who do you think will be a Fanatsy Football 1st round bust? (1 Viewer)

[einstein2u]

with all these bust.....i might go WR WRpersonally...i have red flags on LJ, Gore, Alexander, Portis, Morency.

Yudkin already went over the problem with WRs. The real value late in the first is going RB-Manning (or Manning-RB if you don't think he'll last to you in the second). RB-Manning-Gates is the beginning of a championship-caliber draft.

how early would you consider manning?just curious.no way he makes to the 2nd round in my league.

 

[KellysHeroes]

If you draft Portis at the end of in the 11 or 12 spot.. thats not really a bust.. hes becoming the value pick of the 1st

 

[Chunky Soup]

If you draft Portis at the end of in the 11 or 12 spot.. thats not really a bust.. hes becoming the value pick of the 1st

If he busts, then he's a bust. You don't know he's a bust by him going late first; he certainly still has potential to bust relative to that draft position.

 

[greggorymac]

If you draft Portis at the end of in the 11 or 12 spot.. thats not really a bust.. hes becoming the value pick of the 1st

If he busts, then he's a bust. You don't know he's a bust by him going late first; he certainly still has potential to bust relative to that draft position.

I think you both have two different definitions of what a bust is. For this discussion we should probably agree on the degree of bust. To be a bust, should we say that a player finishes at least 12 players below of where he was projected? Is that too little or too great?

 

[burd]

Reggie Bush, regardless of PPR or not. he's still sharing playing time w/ a very effective Duece. Maybe not necessarily a "bust" as much as I think he's ranked too high on this list. I'd take a Kevin Jones (assuming healthy) or even a DeAngelo Williams before Bush.

 

[SSOG]

with all these bust.....i might go WR WRpersonally...i have red flags on LJ, Gore, Alexander, Portis, Morency.

Yudkin already went over the problem with WRs. The real value late in the first is going RB-Manning (or Manning-RB if you don't think he'll last to you in the second). RB-Manning-Gates is the beginning of a championship-caliber draft.

how early would you consider manning?just curious.no way he makes to the 2nd round in my league.

I wouldn't even DREAM of taking Manning if any of the following RBs were still on the board:LdT, SJax, Gore, Fast Willie Parker, Westbrook, Addai. I wouldn't take him over Larry Johnson, either- but I *WOULD* take Larry Johnson and then try to trade him for Manning immediately after the draft. I wouldn't take him over Henry unless I thought there was a chance that Henry would make it back to me in the second. Depending on the scoring system, Rudi Johnson or Reggie Bush might sneak ahead of Manning, too. That means the highest I'd take him is somewhere between 8 and 12, depending on the scoring system and the guys I'm drafting with. Also, if you only get 4 points per passing TD, I probably wouldn't take him in the first at all (maybe 12th, but not higher), but I'm assuming that most leagues at this point are awarding 6 points per passing TD.

 

[NoFBinLA]

Addai is IMO easiliy one of the safest picks this side of LT.

I agree with this and am suprised so many think he will be a bust.

I would say it's because so many of us (and I was amongst them) expected him to bust last year.People are still getting their heads around his ability which they didn't give him credit for.I think he'll do well - he's a soph and I always temper expectations for them anyway. But I don't think he'll bust.Unless you take him #1.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Addai is IMO easiliy one of the safest picks this side of LT.

I agree with this and am suprised so many think he will be a bust.

I would say it's because so many of us (and I was amongst them) expected him to bust last year.People are still getting their heads around his ability which they didn't give him credit for.I think he'll do well - he's a soph and I always temper expectations for them anyway. But I don't think he'll bust.Unless you take him #1.

Its funny... Addai is the guy I wanted Pittsburgh to take last year. His "ability" was spot on.

 

[Captain Hook]

4. Frank Gore6. Brian Westbrook8. Joseph Addai9. Reggie Bush10. Laurence MaroneyNone of them will be top 10 RBs.

Pete Rose wants to talk to you

 

[NoFBinLA]

Addai is IMO easiliy one of the safest picks this side of LT.

I agree with this and am suprised so many think he will be a bust.

I would say it's because so many of us (and I was amongst them) expected him to bust last year.People are still getting their heads around his ability which they didn't give him credit for.I think he'll do well - he's a soph and I always temper expectations for them anyway. But I don't think he'll bust.Unless you take him #1.

Its funny... Addai is the guy I wanted Pittsburgh to take last year. His "ability" was spot on.

He did do very well. There were alot of folks calling 'JJ Arrington' around the Shark Pool - like he looked good on paper but wouldn't amount to much and would bust . He played much better than those of us who smelled bust thought he would. I expect him to do well again this year. I didn't expect it then.I just think there is residual hang-over from the assumption he wasn't going to cut it.

 

[chris1969]

If you mean guys that could under perform for where they are a drafted, I found question marks for everybody on the list except one.

Steven Jackson- I couldn't think of a reason other than injury that he would under-perform, but I'm sure somebody will post something I didn't think about for him too.

 

[SSOG]

If you mean guys that could under perform for where they are a drafted, I found question marks for everybody on the list except one.Steven Jackson- I couldn't think of a reason other than injury that he would under-perform, but I'm sure somebody will post something I didn't think about for him too.

Regression to the mean. Steven Jackson last season had the fifth most yards from scrimmage in NFL HISTORY. Given the fact that, outside of last year, he has never finished in the top 10 in any major statistical category, combined with the fact that his season last year was almost as historic as Tomlinson's (even if it didn't get as much press), I don't think it's that hard at all to envisioning Steven Jackson remaining fully healthy and still drastically underperforming expectations.This isn't to say that I don't like SJax. I'd take him #2 overall, too. I'm just giving you a reason why he's a bust risk.

 

[chris1969]

If you mean guys that could under perform for where they are a drafted, I found question marks for everybody on the list except one.Steven Jackson- I couldn't think of a reason other than injury that he would under-perform, but I'm sure somebody will post something I didn't think about for him too.

Regression to the mean. Steven Jackson last season had the fifth most yards from scrimmage in NFL HISTORY. Given the fact that, outside of last year, he has never finished in the top 10 in any major statistical category, combined with the fact that his season last year was almost as historic as Tomlinson's (even if it didn't get as much press), I don't think it's that hard at all to envisioning Steven Jackson remaining fully healthy and still drastically underperforming expectations.This isn't to say that I don't like SJax. I'd take him #2 overall, too. I'm just giving you a reason why he's a bust risk.

There you go.

 

[pecorino]

westbrook stands out as a high risk of bust this year. some unrest at QB, another RB to steal some time (tony hunt) and my own personal nagging hunch that he is way overdue for injury. i'd steer clear of him in the 1st myself.

 

[SSOG]

westbrook stands out as a high risk of bust this year. some unrest at QB, another RB to steal some time (tony hunt) and my own personal nagging hunch that he is way overdue for injury. i'd steer clear of him in the 1st myself.

The unrest at QB didn't hurt his numbers last year, did it? In fact, Westy averaged significantly more carries per game when McNabb was out than he did when McNabb was in. And Westy's had another RB in town to steal carries for his entire career (Staley, Buckhalter, et al), but that hasn't kept him from being a solid RB yet, either, has it? So basically, you're avoiding Westbrook in the first because of a nagging hunch. Some people play that way, but I far prefer to base my drafting decisions based on actual information then superstition and guesswork. Over the past three seasons, despite never once playing 16 games, he's gotten 1500, 1200, and 1900 yards, as well as 9, 7, and 11 TDs. He's pretty consistant, and even if he does miss a couple of games a year, his production is strong enough in the games he doesn't miss to more than compensate.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I think the unrest is including the complete loss of Garcia and the addition of a top rookie QB... not just the injury to McNabb.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Gore has pretty much no place to go but down.

what about up?

 

[Jayrod]

Gore has pretty much no place to go but down.

what about up?

Sideways, down?

 

[Lash]

easy --- Portis