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Who finishes the year with more FF points, LJ or MBIII? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter pizzatyme
- Start date
Al Toon's Mole
Footballguy
I'll go with LJ.
Coming off a year like last year, I think he is going to be playing harder to get some respect on the field again.
I've never been too impressed with MBIII outside of short yardage work. And too many names on the Cowboys to keep the yardage equal, and he still needs to prove to me he can handle a full workload.
Coming off a year like last year, I think he is going to be playing harder to get some respect on the field again.
I've never been too impressed with MBIII outside of short yardage work. And too many names on the Cowboys to keep the yardage equal, and he still needs to prove to me he can handle a full workload.
BigJim®
Footballguy
I'm surprised by this voting. MBIII was top 10 even while receiving 2nd fiddle touches. To my knowledge, KC has not fixed their OL problems, and still has an iffy QB situation that will allow defenses to focus on LJ. I'm not seeing the landslide favoring LJ. Even though I'm 100% sure the Cowboys draft a RB in 2008, that rookie will be getting acclimated to the NFL this year. I don;t see how Barber's production could do anything but rise.
LJ had a slow start last year. But in the three games prior to his injury he scored 20, 22 and 22 points. He'll have better QB and OL play this year. I fully expect LJ to be Top 5 barring injury.We don't know yet whether MBIII can be the bellcow. But we know that LJ can.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Where do you see the Chiefs finishing the year in their division?Do you see Edwards running him into the ground even if they are getting blown out this year?
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
How do you know that? I guess it can't get any worse but even an improvement from horrible to bad isn't worth a lot.Marion Barber is a good player playing for a great offense. He's already had two good seasons. He'll have another one this year.
switz
Footballguy
LJ is loads and loads more talented than MB3. He also had 3 110+ yard games, despite the bad OL, and only playing half the season.
MB3 will be splitting carries. His highest rushing game during the regular season was 110 yards, he also had 3 100 yard games but played the whole season. And as noted, Barber played in a much more explosive offense as it was. Note: edited because Barber also had a 100 yard game in the playoffs.
Barber gets the edge in TDs I think, and that may put him above LJ overall. They have very close projections for me I guess.
MB3 will be splitting carries. His highest rushing game during the regular season was 110 yards, he also had 3 100 yard games but played the whole season. And as noted, Barber played in a much more explosive offense as it was. Note: edited because Barber also had a 100 yard game in the playoffs.
Barber gets the edge in TDs I think, and that may put him above LJ overall. They have very close projections for me I guess.
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The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Marion Barber is going to be like Joseph Addai from last season.
Larry Johnson is going to be like Shaun Alexander from last season.
Larry Johnson is going to be like Shaun Alexander from last season.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Kinda how I feel. I look at LJ as a great back on a poor team. And MB III as a very good back on a very good team.Yes, he'll be splitting carries, but now he is the starter and the scraps go to the rookie or backup.
Captain_Apocalypse
Footballguy
What about the Alexander factor? I would hope (MBIII owner) that MBIII would have the better year since he has more motivation to run for a new contract (at this point anyway), whereas LJ has already been paid. If it works out like Alexander that would mean that LJ has his $$ so what does he run for now? Honestly I wouldn't have much to prove as far as running hard and putting my body on the line for that sucky team.
That said, I think it's a toss-up. Situations aside I would think that it's more about attitude this year as to which one has a better year. If LJ really has something to prove then I think it'll be him. Just don't know where his head is.
That said, I think it's a toss-up. Situations aside I would think that it's more about attitude this year as to which one has a better year. If LJ really has something to prove then I think it'll be him. Just don't know where his head is.
The fact that they have one more year of experience.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
WOW!!! That's a bold prediction.I will say this, I don't entirely disagree. If KC doesn't fix that line LJ isn't going anywhere. With not much in terms of a passing game to keep D's honest LJ is going to see 8 and 9 men in the box and is going to have to make moves in the backfield to avoid tackles. I think the real key for MBIII is his TD output. The guy had 12 and 16 TD's the last two years which as bloated his numbers (7th and 17th the last two years but never more than 100 yards rushing). If they were to say use someone else around the goal line now that MBIII is the starter (at least as of now) to keep him fresh then he could fall back into the 10-15 range rather than push for the top 5 range.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Actually, I think they are comparable talent. LJ was a beast behind the best O-line in the league. The line declines and so does his production. Does that mean it was all LJ's talent or did the gaping holes he ran through have anything to do with it? MBIII on the other hand made much more out of much less. Much less carries and he's still tearing it up compared to LJ.
EBF
Footballguy
LJ has more burst and is more of a big play threat. Otherwise they're pretty similar. There aren't a lot of RB's in the league who can be studs on weak teams. Jamal Lewis in Baltimore is a classic example of a very good back being held in check by a weak offense. Yes, he had the huge 2,000 yard season, but he never sniffed the FF numbers of LT and Alexander because his team didn't give him anywhere near the TD opportunities those guys had. Barring disaster, the Cowboys are going to score a lot of points next year. Barber stands to benefit from that. In a vacuum I agree that LJ is the more dynamic talent, but he's coming off a down year and the Chiefs will have to make major strides on offense if they're going to yield an elite FF RB.
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pizzatyme
Footballguy
Last year Joey Harrington had 1 more year of experience than the year before...I'm just sayin...
JKL
Footballguy
I'm stunned that LJ is leading. Setting aside the offenses each play for and the surrounding circumstances in 2008, LJ will be 29, coming off a broken foot, and has seen a large decline in his ypc. I'd honestly rather it be a knee injury than a foot injury for his future prospects, as guys like Natrone Means, whose career ended with a foot injury before he got to 29, come to mind. What historic comparables give people the belief that LJ will finish as an RB1 in 2008? I'll try to do some research, but want to hear other's thoughts.
As for KC's offense improving, well, it will have to be with new players. The O-line was long in the tooth last year and the Chiefs have neglected drafting offensive linemen in the Vermeil era to groom as eventual replacements. They haven't signed anyone in the offseason (yet). Any improvement will have to come from draft selections that move into the lineup.
As for KC's offense improving, well, it will have to be with new players. The O-line was long in the tooth last year and the Chiefs have neglected drafting offensive linemen in the Vermeil era to groom as eventual replacements. They haven't signed anyone in the offseason (yet). Any improvement will have to come from draft selections that move into the lineup.
BigJim®
Footballguy
JMHO, but I don't think you are focusing on the things that made both Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson hugely successful. I don't doubt LJ's talent, but the reality is a guy doesn't go from 5.2 YPC, to 4.3 YPC, to 3.5 YPC in successive seasons because of loss of talent. That top tier OL is no longer in KC, nor is the offensive coaching staff. They've been successfuly Hermanated. Also, I had to chuckle at your comment that the OL and QB play should be improved merely on the basis of having another year. I've seen their depth chart, and I think they need a lot more than time to become top tier on either front.Christo said:
JKL
Footballguy
As it turns out, this post by Doug Drinen on Ahman Green and Deuce McAllister prior to the 2006 season has some bearing. LJ fits the parameters of the study.
The only other backs who had back to back top 10 fantasy seasons, then missed at least half the games the next season at age 26-29, are (years and ages are the follow up seasons, like LJ's 2008 at age 29):
Lawrence McCutcheon, 1979, age 29 (same as LJ), played 3 more seasons but never finished higher than 75th in Fant RB points.
Terrell Davis, 1999, age 28, Davis finished RB58 and RB46 in two more injury plagued seasons
Jamal Anderson, 1999, age 28, Anderson played all 16 next year, finishing RB22. Tore knee again early the following season, ending career.
Greg Bell, 1990, age 29, Bell's career was over at age 29
Wilbert Montgomery, 1984, age 30, Montgomery finished RB19 in 1984, was a backup the next year, and retired.
Mercury Morris, 1974, age 28, Morris bounced back to finish RB25
That's it. Three guys who never returned to relevance, and three guys who managed to finish with lower end RB #2 numbers for one more season. 2007 Shaun Alexander is probably another decent comp, even though he "only" missed 6 games in 2006.
Expanding it out, Doug's original study included all backs who were top 20 in fantasy points in consecutive years, not just top 10. Among those backs, Dorsey Levens 1999 was the only one to finish as an RB#1, finishing as RB6 that year. Deuce McAllister and Marcus Allen finished as RB13, and Ahman Green as RB15.
Levens and Green returned to play in pretty good offenses with Brett Favre at QB. McAllister and Allen played on teams with upper tier passing offenses that both reached the conference championship game that season. I'm going to go out on a rather thick limb that Jason Whitlock could sit on comfortably, and say that (1) Brodie Croyle is not Brett Favre; and (2) the Chiefs will not have a prolific passing offense and appear in the AFC Championship game next year. I'll say that IF he stays healthy for a full season, I would expect something closer to what Anderson did in 2000 on an offense that had gotten old and was trying to overturn on the offensive line with rookies.
The only other backs who had back to back top 10 fantasy seasons, then missed at least half the games the next season at age 26-29, are (years and ages are the follow up seasons, like LJ's 2008 at age 29):
Lawrence McCutcheon, 1979, age 29 (same as LJ), played 3 more seasons but never finished higher than 75th in Fant RB points.
Terrell Davis, 1999, age 28, Davis finished RB58 and RB46 in two more injury plagued seasons
Jamal Anderson, 1999, age 28, Anderson played all 16 next year, finishing RB22. Tore knee again early the following season, ending career.
Greg Bell, 1990, age 29, Bell's career was over at age 29
Wilbert Montgomery, 1984, age 30, Montgomery finished RB19 in 1984, was a backup the next year, and retired.
Mercury Morris, 1974, age 28, Morris bounced back to finish RB25
That's it. Three guys who never returned to relevance, and three guys who managed to finish with lower end RB #2 numbers for one more season. 2007 Shaun Alexander is probably another decent comp, even though he "only" missed 6 games in 2006.
Expanding it out, Doug's original study included all backs who were top 20 in fantasy points in consecutive years, not just top 10. Among those backs, Dorsey Levens 1999 was the only one to finish as an RB#1, finishing as RB6 that year. Deuce McAllister and Marcus Allen finished as RB13, and Ahman Green as RB15.
Levens and Green returned to play in pretty good offenses with Brett Favre at QB. McAllister and Allen played on teams with upper tier passing offenses that both reached the conference championship game that season. I'm going to go out on a rather thick limb that Jason Whitlock could sit on comfortably, and say that (1) Brodie Croyle is not Brett Favre; and (2) the Chiefs will not have a prolific passing offense and appear in the AFC Championship game next year. I'll say that IF he stays healthy for a full season, I would expect something closer to what Anderson did in 2000 on an offense that had gotten old and was trying to overturn on the offensive line with rookies.
Captain_Apocalypse
Footballguy
Very interesting, don't have the time to look it up right now, but wonder if they also cashed in after their big seasons and got big $$ contracts. Would be interesting to see if backs generally decline after signing a big contract. Seems those contracts usually coincide with a huge production season. Obviously wouldn't make a difference to injuries. Be interesting to see if those big seasons were contract years too. Does being in a contract year = better production?
I guess you're forgetting the three games prior to his injury
Sure, in one of the best offenses in the league. You think LJ would have had a piddling 209 points sharing carries behind Dallas' OL?
If the KC Offense plays as well as it did in the three games prior to LJ's injury, LJ has a monster year.After changing teams.
Where did I say they'd be "top tier?"
jurb26
Footballguy
Barber and this wasn't a difficult decision. Barber and LJ are similar talents and Dal is a far better team and offense that will put Barber in better situations to score TDs. The only way LJ makes this remotely close is if gets the ridiculous amount of touches he had in 2006. I don't find that likely. Even if it does happen, the offense wont be as effective and LJ's numbers should reflect that.
jurb26
Footballguy
Yeah, those games aren't nearly as impressive as what people in this thread are saying they were.http://www.nfl.com/players/larryjohnson/ga...gs?id=JOH399484
switz
Footballguy
I'm not sure which three games are being referred to here, but if you are talking about the three 100+ rushing yard games - in one of them Johnson had a terrible 3.8 YPC. Let's focus on that instead of the two where he had 4.7 and 4.9 respectively.If you are referring to the last three prior to injury, his YPC was pretty bad in two of them, but he still managed to have his worst game of the three be 95 total yards and 2 TDs.
I dunno, I wouldn't be too disappointed as an FF owner
And this from a guy who, along with many others, suggested staying away from LJ last season.
jurb26
Footballguy
The fact is, LJ had only 4 decent games out of 8 last year. It's not like he was limited touches either. 5 games at well over 20 touches and only one at less than 17 touches. In 3 of his productive games he had 28, 33 and 28 touches. Of course he had more 100 yd rushing games than Barber. Barber only had had 1 game all year with over 18 rushes. Barber only had 3 games with 20 touches or more last year. That will likely change this year. This is why I said earlier, "unless LJ has the ridiculous amount of touches he had in 2006." Coming off injury and as bad as KC is I don't find that likely. I do however find it highly probable that Barber will increase his touches and in Dal's offense they are likely to be productive touches compared to what LJ will get.I'm not sure which three games are being referred to here, but if you are talking about the three 100+ rushing yard games - in one of them Johnson had a terrible 3.8 YPC. Let's focus on that instead of the two where he had 4.7 and 4.9 respectively.If you are referring to the last three prior to injury, his YPC was pretty bad in two of them, but he still managed to have his worst game of the three be 95 total yards and 2 TDs.
I dunno, I wouldn't be too disappointed as an FF owner
And this from a guy who, along with many others, suggested staying away from LJ last season.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I like MB3 in overall points for the season but think LJ will have a higher per game average of fantasy points.
Right. And LJ was responsible for 95, 133 and 143 of those yards and 4 TDs in those three games. So even when KC wasn't producing as a team, LJ was able to produce.
Tau837
Footballguy
LJ was tied for RB12 (FBG scoring) through week 9, with 98.5 fantasy points, then he didn't play again. It was disappointing, given expectations, but he wasn't as bad as people think. I think the KC QB and OL situation should be improved this year over last year, though maybe that isn't saying much...
BigJim®
Footballguy
To be fair, the poll was something like 17-3 in favor of LJ when I posted that. I don't think LJ is a bad player or anything but he could be the one on the downslope here and there's no question which guy has a better situation.LJ was tied for RB12 (FBG scoring) through week 9, with 98.5 fantasy points, then he didn't play again. It was disappointing, given expectations, but he wasn't as bad as people think. I think the KC QB and OL situation should be improved this year over last year, though maybe that isn't saying much...
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
With all respect to Drinen and his study, I think there is a pretty decent chance LJ will be the exception to this rule. Many of them were coming off of ACL injuries, and many of them had shown other signs of breaking down besides the ACLs.
LJ's injury was a broken bone. Completely different than attempting to recover from an ACL. LJ also has a career total of 1063 carries. Very light for a feature back.
By comparison (all numbers include playoff carries):
Ahman Green currently has 2057 career carries.
Deuce McAllister has 1369 (Two ACL injuries as well)
Terrell Davis had 1859
Jamal Anderson had 1399
Laurence McCutcheon had 1694.
Mercury Morris had 899.
Wilbert Montgomery had 1679.
Greg Bell had 1280.
I think a good case can be made for KC stinking on offense, and that being the reason why LJ won't finish as a top back. I don't think he's a prime candidate for breaking down yet however.
As for the OP topic, I think MB3 has to be the pick as of now. If KC puts together an oline, that may change things dramatically, as LJ doesn't share with anyone. That line still has a long ways to go though.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
OC Chan Gailey will have that Chiefs offense running the ball well in no time!!
buck naked
Footballguy
Good points and counterpoints, fellas!! Keep it up.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
My early projections, based on opportunity, team strength, and SOS:
LJ- 1700 combined yards and 15 TDs
MB III- 1500 combined yards and 18 TDs
Close, but slight edge to MB III
What could make it change?
Cowboys draft DMac
Chiefs draft and start Matt Ryan plus get major line help.
LJ- 1700 combined yards and 15 TDs
MB III- 1500 combined yards and 18 TDs
Close, but slight edge to MB III
What could make it change?
Cowboys draft DMac
Chiefs draft and start Matt Ryan plus get major line help.
I voted Barber because Dallas inspires more faith on offense than KC does.
I don't think they are comparable talents at all, LJ is FAR more talented, anything Barber does LJ does better. If he were on Dallas there would be no talk about Dallas drafting a RB and LJ would be a top-3 RB. However, that isn't the case and Barber is the choice.
I wouldn't be happy with either of these guys as my RB1 though.
I don't think they are comparable talents at all, LJ is FAR more talented, anything Barber does LJ does better. If he were on Dallas there would be no talk about Dallas drafting a RB and LJ would be a top-3 RB. However, that isn't the case and Barber is the choice.
I wouldn't be happy with either of these guys as my RB1 though.
jurb26
Footballguy
I would have to think it could help him actually. I see KC using these picks to sure up their Oline and QB. Ryan at 5, best available Olineman at 17. No matter what, I would not rank him above Barber this year.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Not disagreeing your point since I basically said the same thing earlier. But, for this to be the case, Ryan would HAVE to perform at a high level from the get-go.I think the loss of Allen offsets any gain on the O-line from a rookie.About a wash now that I think of it.
JKL
Footballguy
LJ's injury was a broken bone . . . in his foot. I would tend to agree with you more if he broke his arm and missed time for that reason. A broken metatarsal is no trivial matter when it comes to a running back who has to continually pound on that foot, especially one LJ's size. We've just seen how Alexander played after coming back on a broken foot that required less missed time than LJ. Natrone Means' career effectively ended at age 26 with a broken foot in game 10, as he had 112 career carries after that. Tim Biakabatuka's career ended following a broken foot in 2001 at age 27. I'm certainly not saying that a broken foot guarantees an end to the career. Ricky Williams comes to mind as a player who had a broken foot, in his second year in the league. Just like ACL injuries, players can come back to play, but just like ACL injuries, some will not make it back, and many will be not as explosive and will be at greater risk of injury thereafter. Here, we are talking about a 29 year old power back. I don't think the "broken bone" thing is reason for optimism. I would feel more comfortable, that with his running style, an ACL injury would be easier to come back and turn in one more productive season.
As for the previous workload thing, I don't think there is credible evidence to support that view. Running back's aren't credit cards, you don't get to go on a wild spending spree because you kept it in a drawer for two seasons, and then say, hey, I still haven't hit my limit. That broken bone in his foot doesn't remember how many carries he had at age 24.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
So the line being a year older and needing 3 starters leads you to think that we can some how extrapolate the numbers he had in those 3 games over 16 games in 2008? Not gonna happen. That line a mess. And it's not going to be good for at least 1, maybe 2 seasons and by that time LJ will be looking trying to pick up with another team for one more big year....
You sure of that? It's not like MBIII started every game. JJ started. JJ got a ton of carries. You are talking about the "piddling" of points he scored. Remember that was good for 7th in a standard scoring league in 2007. That's not a piddling. Only 6 RB's did better. It's not elite but it's top tier. And with no competition do you really think he drops below the 7th he finished last year? I can only see him improving in 2008.LJ should improve this year too. But improving on 37th place and an injury plagued season isn't all that hard. Making top 10 will be pretty tough though for LJ. I think those days are behind him....
switz
Footballguy
Barber had 15+ carries in 7 games last season, 6 games with <10 carries.Jones had 3 games of 15+ carries, 9 with <10.I'm not sure an argument can be made that Jones stole a ton of carries from Barber last season...Jones only had 164 carries, which is likely what any RB Dallas drafts within the first three rounds will see as well. Barber, in the previous two years to last season saw around 135 carries to Julius 260 or so. The Cowboys ran less last season with the emergence of Romo, and I wouldn't expect that to change. Barber will probably see 30 more carries this season, but that's what 2 per game?I don't see the optimism for him drastically improving this season. I'm trying to look at this objectively. But with the way the Cowboys are set up, and with the rumors of them going after another RB in the first round, plus Barber not signing a long term deal, it seems to me he will clearly be in an RBBC next season, and still see in the low 200 carries range.As I said earlier, I still see him outperforming Johnson, but it will be close. Neither one will likely be in the top-10.
