Who finishes the year with more FF points, LJ or MBIII? (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

I'll take the player that is going to get a whole bunch of carries each and every game. LJ is going to get 20+ carries per game.

It seems very likely that LJ will get more touches than MBIII. So for MBIII to outperform LJ, he'll have to perform better on a per touch basis. He might do that, but I doubt it.

 

[pizzatyme]

I'll take the player that is going to get a whole bunch of carries each and every game. LJ is going to get 20+ carries per game.

It seems very likely that LJ will get more touches than MBIII. So for MBIII to outperform LJ, he'll have to perform better on a per touch basis. He might do that, but I doubt it.

Running into the backs of his O-linemen might cut into his YPA?I just see the Chiefs looking up in the standings to everyone in their division. That doesn't bode well for a guy whose YPA has been dropping.

 

[iSnitch]

Barber is a comparable talent on a much better offense. I like him more in a redraft.

Comparable talent? No way, no how.

Actually, I think they are comparable talent. LJ was a beast behind the best O-line in the league. The line declines and so does his production. Does that mean it was all LJ's talent or did the gaping holes he ran through have anything to do with it?

I guess you're forgetting the three games prior to his injury

So the line being a year older and needing 3 starters leads you to think that we can some how extrapolate the numbers he had in those 3 games over 16 games in 2008? Not gonna happen. That line a mess. And it's not going to be good for at least 1, maybe 2 seasons and by that time LJ will be looking trying to pick up with another team for one more big year....

MBIII on the other hand made much more out of much less. Much less carries and he's still tearing it up compared to LJ.

Sure, in one of the best offenses in the league. You think LJ would have had a piddling 209 points sharing carries behind Dallas' OL?

You sure of that? It's not like MBIII started every game. JJ started. JJ got a ton of carries. You are talking about the "piddling" of points he scored. Remember that was good for 7th in a standard scoring league in 2007. That's not a piddling. Only 6 RB's did better. It's not elite but it's top tier. And with no competition do you really think he drops below the 7th he finished last year? I can only see him improving in 2008.LJ should improve this year too. But improving on 37th place and an injury plagued season isn't all that hard. Making top 10 will be pretty tough though for LJ. I think those days are behind him....

MBIII made the top ten in what was an abnormally low scoring season for top ten rb's.

 

[TheFanatic]

Barber is a comparable talent on a much better offense. I like him more in a redraft.

Comparable talent? No way, no how.

Actually, I think they are comparable talent. LJ was a beast behind the best O-line in the league. The line declines and so does his production. Does that mean it was all LJ's talent or did the gaping holes he ran through have anything to do with it?

I guess you're forgetting the three games prior to his injury

So the line being a year older and needing 3 starters leads you to think that we can some how extrapolate the numbers he had in those 3 games over 16 games in 2008? Not gonna happen. That line a mess. And it's not going to be good for at least 1, maybe 2 seasons and by that time LJ will be looking trying to pick up with another team for one more big year....

MBIII on the other hand made much more out of much less. Much less carries and he's still tearing it up compared to LJ.

Sure, in one of the best offenses in the league. You think LJ would have had a piddling 209 points sharing carries behind Dallas' OL?

You sure of that? It's not like MBIII started every game. JJ started. JJ got a ton of carries. You are talking about the "piddling" of points he scored. Remember that was good for 7th in a standard scoring league in 2007. That's not a piddling. Only 6 RB's did better. It's not elite but it's top tier. And with no competition do you really think he drops below the 7th he finished last year? I can only see him improving in 2008.LJ should improve this year too. But improving on 37th place and an injury plagued season isn't all that hard. Making top 10 will be pretty tough though for LJ. I think those days are behind him....

MBIII made the top ten in what was an abnormally low scoring season for top ten rb's.

That doesn't really matter. There were still only 6 guys that did better than he did. If RB's on a whole scored more points in 2007 do you think MBIII would've stayed static with only a couple hundred points? Do you truly believe that everyone else underperformed AND Barber either performed normally or above average?The fact remains that in relation to the other RB's in the league only 6 finished better than Barber and he wasn't the starter....

 

[switz]

MBIII made the top ten in what was an abnormally low scoring season for top ten rb's.

That doesn't really matter. There were still only 6 guys that did better than he did. If RB's on a whole scored more points in 2007 do you think MBIII would've stayed static with only a couple hundred points? Do you truly believe that everyone else underperformed AND Barber either performed normally or above average?

The short answer is yes.Actually yes it does matter... when you look at the fact that Barber improved his fantasy scoring output, where many other RBs declined. His improved production translated into #7 in a year where most other RBs declined, do you think those RBs, now healthy, are not going to improve more dramatically this season than Barber will?

It was not a consensus, every RB produced 100 fewer fantasy points. Some of the top RBs had very down seasons, and because of that, other RBs, from a relative perspective, finished higher. But take Barber's output (remember this was an increased output, his touches went up by nearly 50%) and compare it to average years for RBs. Unless you think he's going to see another 50% increase in touches how do you think he's going to compare this year?

 

[Banger]

They are very close IMO. A lot will hinge on what KC does with their picks and how they turn out. The talent, offensive philosophy and opportunity all favor LJ, the O-line, better offense favor MB. In a coin flip I go with the talent and opportunity. The offense, whatever that ends up being, will go through LJ, the same is not true for MB.

 

[TheFanatic]

MBIII made the top ten in what was an abnormally low scoring season for top ten rb's.

That doesn't really matter. There were still only 6 guys that did better than he did. If RB's on a whole scored more points in 2007 do you think MBIII would've stayed static with only a couple hundred points? Do you truly believe that everyone else underperformed AND Barber either performed normally or above average?

The short answer is yes.Actually yes it does matter... when you look at the fact that Barber improved his fantasy scoring output, where many other RBs declined. His improved production translated into #7 in a year where most other RBs declined, do you think those RBs, now healthy, are not going to improve more dramatically this season than Barber will?

It was not a consensus, every RB produced 100 fewer fantasy points. Some of the top RBs had very down seasons, and because of that, other RBs, from a relative perspective, finished higher. But take Barber's output (remember this was an increased output, his touches went up by nearly 50%) and compare it to average years for RBs. Unless you think he's going to see another 50% increase in touches how do you think he's going to compare this year?

First, I think his touches do go up this year. 50% is not how much they go up but they do increase.But I do like the logic that all the other RB's declined and MBIII overachieved. Very neurotic paranoid thinking or just plain man hate.

Because see, numbers a RB puts up from one year have no bearing on numbers another RB put up in a different year. Sure, in 2006 LT had 400 points. And in 2007 he had 300. How does that have any impact on what MBIII did on the field?

If next year is an up year for RB's is it conceivable that MBIII also has an up year or does he only have a good year when everyone else is down and a bad year when everyone else is up? Like I said, that make no sense at all and is not supported with any logic other than a bias against MBIII or some sort of weird neurosis.

 

[jurb26]

I'll take the player that is going to get a whole bunch of carries each and every game. LJ is going to get 20+ carries per game.

It seems very likely that LJ will get more touches than MBIII. So for MBIII to outperform LJ, he'll have to perform better on a per touch basis. He might do that, but I doubt it.

Huh? He might do that? I'd say it's nearly certain he will do that.

 

[jurb26]

Jones only had 164 carries

Only 164 carries? Thats just as many as MJD has had during his 2 years in Jacksonville. 164 carries is not chump change. I think we are starting to loose perspective here.

 

[jurb26]

I don't see the optimism for him drastically improving this season. I'm trying to look at this objectively. But with the way the Cowboys are set up, and with the rumors of them going after another RB in the first round, plus Barber not signing a long term deal, it seems to me he will clearly be in an RBBC next season, and still see in the low 200 carries range.

The optimism is that Barber has already proven he is a top 10 RB even at the low 200 range in Dal. There is no reason to believe he will get less touches next season. There is strong reason to believe he will get more touches next season. That alone makes him a better pick than LJ IMO.

 

[Ned]

I don't see the optimism for him drastically improving this season. I'm trying to look at this objectively. But with the way the Cowboys are set up, and with the rumors of them going after another RB in the first round, plus Barber not signing a long term deal, it seems to me he will clearly be in an RBBC next season, and still see in the low 200 carries range.

The optimism is that Barber has already proven he is a top 10 RB even at the low 200 range in Dal. There is no reason to believe he will get less touches next season. There is strong reason to believe he will get more touches next season. That alone makes him a better pick than LJ IMO.

everyone's making a big leap of faith that mb3 can perform at the same level with more touches. he needs to show that he's the type that gets stronger as the game goes on. i saw an rb wear down significantly in the 2nd half of his first official start (div. playoff vs. nyg). color me skeptical that he can be that 320+ touch rb while still performing at the level he played at last year.

 

[switz]

First, I think his touches do go up this year. 50% is not how much they go up but they do increase.

But I do like the logic that all the other RB's declined and MBIII overachieved. Very neurotic paranoid thinking or just plain man hate.

Because see, numbers a RB puts up from one year have no bearing on numbers another RB put up in a different year. Sure, in 2006 LT had 400 points. And in 2007 he had 300. How does that have any impact on what MBIII did on the field?

You make some excellent points, but I'm not sure you actually realize that.#1 - So, his touches do go up, but they still won't hit 300 (a 50% increase). Even if he maintains his production per touch, how do you think that will stack up to the other RBs?

#2 - Also, I never said Barber "overachieved" - I said he improved. But my point was that while Barber improved, a number of other RBs declined in production due to injuries and various other situations. Their decline, combined with Barber's improvement resulted in a higher relative ranking for Barber last season, than it would in an average season. That's really not that hard to figure out.

And #3 - You are right. What an RB does one year, has no bearing on what he will do the next, or what he did the previous. However, when you get a large enough sample, you can begin to see the average production of RBs at certain rankings. Last season, all of the rankings came out below the average. It doesn't mean the RB that hit a certain ranking played below his average, rather his production would not normally result in his being ranked at that spot.

Now Barber statistically improved dramatically last season. Any argument there?

Most of the top RBs in the league produced at less than their average production levels last year. Any arguments?

With those two points in mind, and assuming regression to the mean, it is unlikely Barber's production, even if it increases slightly (and there's no reason to think it won't) will not likely result in a top-10 output this coming season. It's simple mathematics, the law of averages, and situational consideration.

Still, as I said earlier, Barber's production will still likely be more than LJ's.

 

[switz]

Jones only had 164 carries

Only 164 carries? Thats just as many as MJD has had during his 2 years in Jacksonville. 164 carries is not chump change. I think we are starting to loose perspective here.

It's not chump change, but it is less than what Barber saw, and only 30 more than what Barber was receiving in the secondary role the previous two seasons. In no way should anyone expect whoever Dallas drafts to see less than 130 carries this year, so from that perspective, Jones was not stealing a "ton of carries" from Barber. Barber is not going to see 160 more carries this year, probably not even 60 more carries this year.