Who holds more fantasy value this week vs the Jets? (1 Viewer)

[satch]

Taylor's still "the starter", but MJD is simply more productive. At what point do we rank MJD ahead of Taylor?

 

[Bobcat10]

What makes Drew more productive? His big play scores that boost his stats?

 

[gman8343]

I expect a heavy dose of Taylor. MDJ could have a big play, but odds are in favor of Taylor.

 

[Wadsworth]

If I had to start one or the other, I'd start Taylor without question. But that's because I expect the Jags to lead early or be close enough thoughout to stick with the power running game. If you expect the Jets offense to get going early and Jags to be playing from behind Drew might be a better start.

 

[PahtyTom]

Drew's stats are impressive, but I don't think he can remain this consistently productive with the amount of touches he's receiving. He's overvalued right now in redrafts IMO.

 

[satch]

What makes Drew more productive? His big play scores that boost his stats?

Yes, you answered your own question.

 

[satch]

If I had to start one or the other, I'd start Taylor without question. But that's because I expect the Jags to lead early or be close enough thoughout to stick with the power running game. If you expect the Jets offense to get going early and Jags to be playing from behind Drew might be a better start.

I agree and disagree. I too expect the Jags to lead early and control the game running the ball. At the same time, Taylor's workload has been pretty consistent at 21,22,21,7 carries through the first four games. With the emergence of MJD, I see no reason to expect Taylors workload to increase. If anything, we'll likely see a decrease in Taylors workload and an increase in MJDs. If the Jags do in fact run the hell out of the ball this week, I still see Taylor getting his usual 20 carries, with MJD getting the rest. The rest may be 10-15 carries, along with 5 receptions. Considering the Jets D and MJDs big play potential...

Taylor: 20/80/1

MJD: 13/110/1 (incl one 50+ yd TD run)

5/50/1 (incl a 25 yd TD)

 

[Rovers]

If I had to start one or the other, I'd start Taylor without question. But that's because I expect the Jags to lead early or be close enough thoughout to stick with the power running game. If you expect the Jets offense to get going early and Jags to be playing from behind Drew might be a better start.

I agree and disagree. I too expect the Jags to lead early and control the game running the ball. At the same time, Taylor's workload has been pretty consistent at 21,22,21,7 carries through the first four games. With the emergence of MJD, I see no reason to expect Taylors workload to increase. If anything, we'll likely see a decrease in Taylors workload and an increase in MJDs. If the Jags do in fact run the hell out of the ball this week, I still see Taylor getting his usual 20 carries, with MJD getting the rest. The rest may be 10-15 carries, along with 5 receptions. Considering the Jets D and MJDs big play potential...

Taylor: 20/80/1

MJD: 13/110/1 (incl one 50+ yd TD run)

5/50/1 (incl a 25 yd TD)

Wow, you are actually projecting that the Jags get 200 yards rushing? (figuring 10 for Lefty) I know the Jets run D is weak, but I don't think it's that weak, especially given the run prevent defense the Jets will likely employ. Last week against the Colts the Jets did all they could to force Indy to run instead of pass.... you won't see that defense against the Jags this week. I suspect that the Jets will dare them to throw instead, and if MJD has a big game it will be reception yardage, not rushing yardage. If Lefty has a subpar passing game, say 150 yards, you are projecting 350 yards of total offense, with at least a combined 250 of that from the RB's. That is almost double the rushing yardage Jax has averaged this year. I guess you have to think that all Jax WR's should be on the bench this week?

 

[satch]

If I had to start one or the other, I'd start Taylor without question. But that's because I expect the Jags to lead early or be close enough thoughout to stick with the power running game. If you expect the Jets offense to get going early and Jags to be playing from behind Drew might be a better start.

I agree and disagree. I too expect the Jags to lead early and control the game running the ball. At the same time, Taylor's workload has been pretty consistent at 21,22,21,7 carries through the first four games. With the emergence of MJD, I see no reason to expect Taylors workload to increase. If anything, we'll likely see a decrease in Taylors workload and an increase in MJDs. If the Jags do in fact run the hell out of the ball this week, I still see Taylor getting his usual 20 carries, with MJD getting the rest. The rest may be 10-15 carries, along with 5 receptions. Considering the Jets D and MJDs big play potential...

Taylor: 20/80/1

MJD: 13/110/1 (incl one 50+ yd TD run)

5/50/1 (incl a 25 yd TD)

Wow, you are actually projecting that the Jags get 200 yards rushing? (figuring 10 for Lefty) I know the Jets run D is weak, but I don't think it's that weak, especially given the run prevent defense the Jets will likely employ. Last week against the Colts the Jets did all they could to force Indy to run instead of pass.... you won't see that defense against the Jags this week. I suspect that the Jets will dare them to throw instead, and if MJD has a big game it will be reception yardage, not rushing yardage. If Lefty has a subpar passing game, say 150 yards, you are projecting 350 yards of total offense, with at least a combined 250 of that from the RB's. That is almost double the rushing yardage Jax has averaged this year. I guess you have to think that all Jax WR's should be on the bench this week?

I don't think any Jax WR's should be in your starting lineup any week to be honest. WRs are a crapshoot in general and none of Jax are consistent enough to warrant starting. Yes, I am projecting a blowout. I just see Jax running at will for the entire game. 1st half Taylor, 2nd half Drew, which is when the long TD run will occur against the exhausted Jets D.Jax had 191 yds rushing vs Indy in week 3 so it's not that crazy to project 200 vs Jets.

 

[JohnnyU]

Honestly, throw a dart. I don't think anyone really knows. That's the trouble with RBBC.

 

[There it is]

If I had to start one or the other, I'd start Taylor without question. But that's because I expect the Jags to lead early or be close enough thoughout to stick with the power running game. If you expect the Jets offense to get going early and Jags to be playing from behind Drew might be a better start.

I agree and disagree. I too expect the Jags to lead early and control the game running the ball. At the same time, Taylor's workload has been pretty consistent at 21,22,21,7 carries through the first four games. With the emergence of MJD, I see no reason to expect Taylors workload to increase. If anything, we'll likely see a decrease in Taylors workload and an increase in MJDs. If the Jags do in fact run the hell out of the ball this week, I still see Taylor getting his usual 20 carries, with MJD getting the rest. The rest may be 10-15 carries, along with 5 receptions. Considering the Jets D and MJDs big play potential...

Taylor: 20/80/1

MJD: 13/110/1 (incl one 50+ yd TD run)

5/50/1 (incl a 25 yd TD)

My thoughts exactly. The bolded above is almost verbatim what I said to my commish yesterday as I started MJD.

 

[Rovers]

I think people are still underestimating the Jets. I can see 130 to 140 yards rushing at best for Jax in this game. Much will depend on the Jets defensive game plan, but I just don't think they will give up that many yards on the ground to a team that is sure to try and run the ball on them. It's definitely a strength against weakness matchup though. Mangini will do something in his scheme to slow the running game of the Jags down.... and dare Lefty to throw. That is what Mangini has done every week so far... he tries to take away what an offense does best, and force them into something else. That's why the Colts ran so much last week.

 

[Marc Levin]

What makes Drew more productive? His big play scores that boost his stats?

Sure.In terms of fantasy success, why not count those?Versus Washington, Taylor had 8 touches, M J-D had 6 (PLUS 4 KO returns). And M J-D has had better fantasy numbers the last two weeks than Fred Taylor.I think it is a viable question.

 

[nygiants56]

MJD..taylor is good, but jones-drew is going to get plenty of action tomorrow..they could both end up with 80 yards rushing..the Jets run defense is subpar..

 

[Marc Levin]

Only 5 teams in the league giving up more overall rush yards (byes obviously affect that).

They are 10th from last (in other words, bottom third) in YPC.

The Jags, OTOH, are averaging only 3.5 YPR - though, they are 10th in attempts. Look for the Jags to run the ball up the middle a LOT against the Jets. That is the Jags' bread and butter - and the Jets are susceptible to power running.

160 rush yards on the day fpor the Jags is a good prediction. M J-D getting 50-60 of those rush yards, plus 20 or more rec. is also a good prediction. I think both runners will make for goodplays.

After a couple weeks relying on Leftwich's arm, and with Matt JOnes injured, look for Del Rio to get back to what he likes - ball control offense, efficient passing, and some play action passes down field.

 

[egg413]

Take this for what it's worth, but due to the many injuries to JAX WRs, MJD is actually coming in and playing as the third WR in the slot. His role is increasing every week and he is a part of the running and passing games. I expect a big game from him against the jets, especially if Mangini focus's on the run. I'm not sure who has the speed on the Jets to cover MJD in the open feild.

 

[Marc Levin]

Take this for what it's worth, but due to the many injuries to JAX WRs, MJD is actually coming in and playing as the third WR in the slot. His role is increasing every week and he is a part of the running and passing games. I expect a big game from him against the jets, especially if Mangini focus's on the run. I'm not sure who has the speed on the Jets to cover MJD in the open feild.

So, you are saying that, at least in PPR leagues, M J-D is the better play this week?

 

[Couch Potato]

MJD: 13/110/1 (incl one 50+ yd TD run)

5/50/1 (incl a 25 yd TD)

If the primary input is "what I want for the guy on my fantasy team" it is a Mojo-D owner's hope and wish, not a projection. Could it happen? Sure, lots of things could happen, but anyone who understands the principles of projection-making just shakes his head at something like this. Projections should be unbiased and based on historical norms of both teams, the player's role, and other relevant factors (injuries, playing conditions, etc.).

An absolute maximum projection for the guy should be no higher than 15-16 FP even if you love him, not the 27 you've given him. And he's more likely to be in the 6-10 range.