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Who is gonna bust? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter daveR
- Start date
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
Leshoure is the only one who has the potential to be elite.
Mark Ingram will bust. His speed score of 98 should be a major red flag. Mark Ingram's NFL performance will be between Cedric Benson and Hightower.
Mark Ingram will bust. His speed score of 98 should be a major red flag. Mark Ingram's NFL performance will be between Cedric Benson and Hightower.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Williams is interesting...has high bust potential but also a ton of upside.Time will tell...I wouldn't put money down either way.
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Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub
Footballguy
Cards fan and I say Williams. Beanie's more talented. If his knee woes are behind him, I see him getting 200+ carries in 2011. I think Williams offers more explosion than Hightower.
2009 Williams was good at the college level......2009 Wells was good at the NFL level. Both underachieved last year.
2009 Williams was good at the college level......2009 Wells was good at the NFL level. Both underachieved last year.
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doowain
Footballguy
Don't forget that he couldn't even beat out his undrafted college teammate, who was coming off a lost season from a torn ACL.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I think the only one that could be a bust is Ingram... pretty much everyone else was drafted to a place that has a starter. People drafting Williams and Leshoure already know that the team has a 1st round talent infront of the, theres no way I would use a top 6 or 8 pick on one of them unless I had Best or Wells. Also, people draft Ingram 1.01 must forget that Payton loves to play games with RBs and I doubt thoes owners are going to get the production their expecting. I voted for Ingram based on 1.01 expectations while I think Thomas has a much better chance of being more productive.
Shutout
Footballguy
Love that statement. can I borrow it? I really think people are writing off Beanie too soon (and as a result boosting Williams too much).
I'm not a Beanie fan at all; I just think I can be unbiased and see this one.
I'm a bit surprised to see people "busting" Ingram. Across the board, looking at this year's players and where they went; I thin he is the one guy I would take as believing he will produce. I don't think the Saints play games with their RBS; I think the Saint's RBs play games with...staying healthy. When healthy, Saints RBs with far less talent have been FF worthy. I expect the same with Ingram.
fightingillini
Footballguy
Agree on LeShoure. He's got the total package. Also, he has very little mileage, having only been a one-year starter at Illinois. Ingram will bust, but for not the reason you cite. Many great RBs didn't have great speed. What matters more is vision, tackle breaking ability and being able to get through the holes quickly....Ingram has shown that ability. I am not fond of Ingram's situation. With Pierre Thomas resigned, the NO backfield will be pretty crowded, and Payton has shown that he likes to ride the hot hand.
Ray Rice's speed score was 99.7. Any invented stat to predict success or failure is pointless to cite without accompanying film study to back up your larger assertion - which I guess in this case is that Ingram's size/speed ratio isn't good enough to make it in the NFL? He dominated the SEC, the most athletic conference in college football. I think he'll be fine in terms of size/speed ratio to hang in the NFL.
eakfootball
Footballguy
Can't tell is this is sarcasm or not.Helu's getting a lot of votes -- I wonder why.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Yeah, same. I'm a huge Helu backer, but I agree he's got a very large risk of busting. That said, I think we'll find out pretty quickly, as I expect Helu to either quickly take the starting job (if he's got the chops), or immediately settle into his 3rd down role. The guy works so hard that I can't imagine his fate being in limbo for long. We'll know what we've got pretty quickly, IMO.Can't tell is this is sarcasm or not.Helu's getting a lot of votes -- I wonder why.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Glad to see Helu looking like the biggest bust of fantasy drafts. He won't be a major NFL bust because 93% bust rate of position and round. Major bust for fantasy though.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Thomas is my answer.
He is going anywhere from 1.3-1.7 with the expectation that he is going to be the main RB to receive all the carries.
-currently the team has no QB
-only real weapon they have is Marshall (and he is recovering from stab woulds)
-I expect MIA to be playing from behind mostly, so I don't see many "control the clock carries"
-I think MIA will still bring in a RB that will get some carries. Depending on who, his value will take anywhere from a slight hit (LT?) to a HUGE hit (Deangelo?)
I think most people see no competition and that equals him as the starter, but with the inept talent they currently have on O, I would not be shocked to see a rookie campaign like last year with CJ Spiller.
He is going anywhere from 1.3-1.7 with the expectation that he is going to be the main RB to receive all the carries.
-currently the team has no QB
-only real weapon they have is Marshall (and he is recovering from stab woulds)
-I expect MIA to be playing from behind mostly, so I don't see many "control the clock carries"
-I think MIA will still bring in a RB that will get some carries. Depending on who, his value will take anywhere from a slight hit (LT?) to a HUGE hit (Deangelo?)
I think most people see no competition and that equals him as the starter, but with the inept talent they currently have on O, I would not be shocked to see a rookie campaign like last year with CJ Spiller.
daveR
Footballguy
Nope.Can't tell is this is sarcasm or not.Helu's getting a lot of votes -- I wonder why.
I think its better than 50/50 that Helu does indeed bust.. That didnt stop me from taking him at the end of round 1/earlyround 2 in 3 of my 4 rookie drafts. Even if he runs for anything over 4 ypc and 800-900 yards with a handful of TD's, his value will be through the roof in non-ppr dynasty leagues next offseason. Just look at what happened with Blount last season when you put an OK RB on a decent team with little competition for touches and a cake schedule. No matter what though, the odds of Helu being on my team past the 2012 season are slim to none, no matter how well he might do.
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daveR
Footballguy
Why 50/50? Doesn't Shanny's track record imply better?
Gotta go with Demarco Murray.
I find it a bit alarming he seemed like a descending player in college. His YPC went from 6, 5.6, 4.1 to 4.3. Even his last year when he put 4.3 he ran for 208 yards against Utah State in the opener and than barely broke 4 yards per carry the rest of the year. He even dropped drastically his last year in yards per reception dropping about 4 yards per catch from previous two years. What's even worse was he had one long reception of 76 yards which upped his average almost a full yard.
So declining production, injury issues early in his career, and a player who could barely crack 4 yards per carry in a spread offense in an offensive minded conference gives me great pause.
I find it a bit alarming he seemed like a descending player in college. His YPC went from 6, 5.6, 4.1 to 4.3. Even his last year when he put 4.3 he ran for 208 yards against Utah State in the opener and than barely broke 4 yards per carry the rest of the year. He even dropped drastically his last year in yards per reception dropping about 4 yards per catch from previous two years. What's even worse was he had one long reception of 76 yards which upped his average almost a full yard.
So declining production, injury issues early in his career, and a player who could barely crack 4 yards per carry in a spread offense in an offensive minded conference gives me great pause.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
If we're talking long term potential, not really. Since 1995 with the Broncos I count:terrell davis 6th rnd 1995 - awesomel.t. levine 7th rnd 1996 - bustcurtis alexander 4th rnd 1998 - bustchris howard 5th rnd 1998 - bustolandis Gary 4th rnd 1999 - 1 solid year, then injury - bustMike anderson 6th rnd 2000 - 1 great rookie year, then plagued by injuries with 1 other solid year, overall - bustclinton portis 2nd rnd 2002 - very goodquentin griffin 4th rnd 2003 - bustahmaad galloway 7th rnd 2003 - busttatum bell 2nd 2004 - two solid years - then bustmaurice clarett 3rd 2005 - bustMike Bell undrafted 2006 - bustselvin young undrafted 2007 - 1 OK year, then bustryan torain 5th 2008 - ?peyton hillis 7th 2008 (drafted as a fullback) - ?11 busts, 1 amazing player, 1 very good player, a couple of decent seasons followed up by injury, and 2 still early in their careers that have had success. I'd say 50/50 is probably generous if taken as a literal value.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
I guess it depends upon how you want to define "bust". Rookies coming in behind or next to established RB's likely won't put up monster numbers, does that make them a bust? If someone drafts Ingram in a dynasty draft and all he does is put up 900 and 7 TD's in his rookie year, does that mean he's a bust? To me it all depends upon your expectation and the timeline you want to use. Ryan Williams might come in and put up 600 yards and 4 TD's this year, but Beanie walks next year and Williams goes off for 1300 and 10. Does that make Williams a "bust" in 2011? Not so much in 2012
Tony Soprano
Footballguy
'menobrown said:
Captain Hook
Footballguy
What's the definition of "Good"......Good for a rookie? Good for a FF RB2?Not sure 900 total yards and seven TD's is "Good".......of course it might be really good if you could have guessed which games to play him
Spike
Footballguy
The main reason I disagree with this is the price New Orleans paid to get him.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Yea, I guess the Saints front office and coaching must be clowns to pay that kind of price for a bit player.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
"1 or 2 may become pro bowlers">>> Ingram and LeShoure.
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ThePittbully
Footballguy
The 14 people who think Ingram is going to bust are out of their minds
werdnoynek
Footballguy
daveR
Footballguy
In a general sense, I can agree. On the other hand, he's saying 10 of the 19 will go on to be decent NFL players -- not really going out on a limb there.
I find myself wondering about the definition of "bust" in this thread. Helu was the 12 RB taken, right? And was taken in the 4th round. True, Shanny moved up for him but typically, if you pick the 12th RB in the draft you are generally not expecting him to be a "stud" who will carry your franchise. In other words, if Helu is not a 16 game starter with 1400 yards and 10 TDs, I'm not going to be shocked. I fully expect Torrain to start the season and continue to get much of the load all year. At most Helu will be platooning with him, at least at the start. That won't make him a bust in my book. I think all he really has to do is actually make the team and contribute as one member of RBBC to be worth a fourth round pick. We have to have some realistic expectations here.The other thing to keep in mind is that the Redskins drafted 2 RBs. That means they are just "taking flyers" on guys to see if one will pan out. I guess, bust to me is more applicable to guys who are taken in the 1st or 2nd round who you are counting on to be "the guy." That's not the case here. I think he'd bust for you in FFL if you draft him to be the 16 game starter, but I can't imagine anyone actually considering that at this point. Torrain ran well when healthy and he will absolutely get carries until injured.
Sidewinder16
Footballguy
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
production
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spider321
Footballguy
Some of the numbers will overlap. I'm saying that more like 4-6 of the 19 will be decent NFL players.In a general sense, I can agree. On the other hand, he's saying 10 of the 19 will go on to be decent NFL players -- not really going out on a limb there.
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Sidewinder16
Footballguy
When?Surely you're not trying to compare William's injury-limited stats in 2010 to Evans' injury-free stats in 2010.production
daveR
Footballguy
Ah. I see.Some of the numbers will overlap. I'm saying that more like 4-6 of the 19 will be decent NFL players.In a general sense, I can agree. On the other hand, he's saying 10 of the 19 will go on to be decent NFL players -- not really going out on a limb there.
GridironMenace
Footballguy
Why?
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I think we need to define "bust".I don't think you can call a RB taken late in the draft or that went undrafted a "bust". When I think of a bust, I think of a guy taken relatively early that had some expectation attached to him.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Helu can't be an NFL bust, where he was drafted the odds are so high there are no expectations. But in fantasy when he he being taken at 7,8,9 etc; overall in rookie drafts then he can be considered a bust or at the very least a very bad pick. Since it is commonplace he is going high in rookie drafts the word bust would fairly apply in fantasy terms.
GridironMenace
Footballguy
Well, for the record, I haven't voted in the above poll. With that said, I think it is hogwash and lame for anyone to suggest that one's opinion of a rookie that is going to bust, is "out of their minds". They are rookies for a reason. We've seen rookies with more hype than Mark Ingram bust, so to say that Ingram is a lock for fantasy stardom is just stupid homerish football bologna. Ingram did nothing spectacular at the combine, save for his 10 yard split. We've seen rookie put up massive numbers at the combine bust and players that put up pedestrian numbers at the combine flourish. At this point, no one knows what Ingram is going to do and that includes Mr. Pittbully (who is just being a bully for the sake of being a bully.
pghrob
Footballguy
Good post. Unless u draft these midround to late pick guys or free agents in the first or second round of your dynasty fantasy draft...then why worry about busting? Turn this thread on its head and instead ask which rb will surprise and out perform his deaft position in the nfl and/or inb fantasy leagues.
I would disagree, he was drafted in the early part of the 4th round(pick 4:8). Also he went ahead of more touted rbs like kendall hunter, delone carter, dion lewis, and jaquizz rodgers. Plus the redskins gave up three mid round picks to the texans to move up and get him.
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Wanted to note that i think he will be considered a bust because he wont be a startable fantasy RB. He will likely have NFL value though, and not considered a bust from that aspect.
