Every year it seems that people significantly overrate a couple of players. I love it when they can even back it with stats showing that they wil get x number of carries at and avg of x.x which leads to 1300 yds and 9 tds. Who is this years Kevan Barlow? I'm talking about a guy within the first three rounds you will not touch because your gut tells you he stinks.
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Who is this years overhyped Kevan Barlow? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JAMMIN
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Brutis
Footballguy
Caddy Williams
gianmarco
Footballguy
Was originally thinking of him. But I will go with Edge. Keep hearing how the addition of Wisenhunt is enough to make him a top 10 RB. How he'll get so many more carries and up his avg when he's on the decline and on a horrible team. And going way too high, too.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
If that is the case then Edge will hold the rare distinction of winning the Kevan Barlow award 2 consecutive years.
Here are some suggestions.
Here are my guesses - I am high on some of these guys but at the same time I think there are tooo many unknowns.
C. Benson - only one 100 yard rushing game in his career. Can he stay healthy?
B. Jacobs - ready to step into Tiki's shoes? Has he ever carried the full load of a #1 RB?
J. Norwood - seems kinda small and the Falcons are going to stink.
Here are my guesses - I am high on some of these guys but at the same time I think there are tooo many unknowns.
C. Benson - only one 100 yard rushing game in his career. Can he stay healthy?
B. Jacobs - ready to step into Tiki's shoes? Has he ever carried the full load of a #1 RB?
J. Norwood - seems kinda small and the Falcons are going to stink.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs are the 2 that I really don't buy into. I'm not too big on McGahee or Ronnie Brown either.
McGahee, Brown, and Edge seem like perfect cantidates for the Kevan Barlow award. Late 1st round/early 2nd round RBs with hype, opportunity, and enough good prior performances to sucker owners in.
McGahee, Brown, and Edge seem like perfect cantidates for the Kevan Barlow award. Late 1st round/early 2nd round RBs with hype, opportunity, and enough good prior performances to sucker owners in.
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hephner
Footballguy
Personally I think Benson will be this year's Chester Taylor. Taylor isn't an overly talented back, but got his first opportunity at a starting job after enjoying some success as a backup. Behind that o-line and the # of carries he received, he was a valuable fantasy RB. Benson has a very similar situation. This o-line made a very middle-of-the-road RB like Thomas Jones look good, and I see no reason why Benson can't do the same or better than Jones did, as I think he is more talented than Jones. Also, how many 100 yard games do you expect a backup RB to get? Not sure how that is relevant.I go back and forth on Jacobs, and I'm doubting I'll end up with him in any of my leagues, cause I'm guessing someone will be overpaying for him.Also, not sure how "seems kinda small" really is a big factor regarding Norwood. Doesn't his teammate, and potential RBBC parnter, Warrick Dunn, seem kinda smaller, and look at his success. I'm not comparing the two, but lots of RBs have proven that they can perform despite being slighly undersized at the position, and I don't think Atlanta is going to run him into the ground, as I don't expect them to be giving him the ball 25 times a game in his first season as starter, even if Dunn misses time. And his YPC was mind-boggling last year, although that will surely be impossible to duplicate. He was upgraded with the announcement of Dunn's injury, and downgraded a bit with Vick expected to be out now, but I think his ADP is fairly congruent with his value, considering most probably consider him a borderline RB2/RB3 on a fantasy team.
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
Ronnie Brown. I've already nicknamed him KB2.
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I actually like McGahee and Brown. First, Baltimore will be in every game, unlike Buffalo. Baltimore has always played ball control and counted on their defense. McGahee could get a career high in carries this year. I am not as sold on Brown, Trent Green is the best QB Miami has seen since Marino, believe it or not. Green and Chambers could be lethal, which will open up opportunities for Brown.
gianmarco
Footballguy
The only way I see the above bolded statement happening is when Green overthrows Chambers and of course he doesn't catch it and some unsuspecting fan gets hit in the head and dies. Otherwise, don't count on it.
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
In my opinion, and I'm not a Denver homer, Henry rates as "least likely to bust". Only way he tanks is if Cutler totally stinks up the joint. Wait, in that case he'll get even more carries. Never mind.
I Am Rick James
Footballguy
I know a way Henry busts, Cecil Sapp or some other RB that nobody ever heard of, all of a sudden, is promoted into the starting role by none other then the hater of fantasy footballers everywhere, SHANAHANAGINSMove Henry down your cheathsheets now, and let some other fool feel the pain
Penguin
Footballguy
Yep, he's gone for 16 if he screws up again. I think he understands what's at stake here and if he fails to meet or exceed my 2007 projections for him it won't be because of games missed due to suspension.
stanmarino13
Footballguy
I dont have a link but i think i remember reading that henry would be out of the drug program in week 3 or something like that.
Penguin
Footballguy
How he could be "out of the program" by week 3, it's cumulative. Not sure if this is still 100% correct, I am still searching for a clearly defined link on nfl.com's site
Stage 1 is fairly straightforward. Essentially a positive test of someone. Now this could be a random test or a tip from someone such as NFL security or the team. All tests are confidential but a failure gets you into Stage 1. This stage is not to last more than 60 days, during which there is random testing. A player is usually given a few days notice but must not miss the test. Failure of a test or missing of a test gets you automatic admission into Stage 2.
Ah yes, Stage 2. During Stage 1 a treatment plan has been put together. Complete with regular meetings with Psychiatrists, Medical Doctors, etc. to stop what the NFL deems might be a problem starting. In Stage 2, which is only to last 24 months or two complete seasons, this gets more intense. You life is really not your own. Tests are more often, less time in advance, and the penalties are far more severe. In the NFL’s own words…
“(1)Discipline for First Failure to Comply in Stage Two: A player who has a Positive Test or who in the judgment of the Medical Director fails to comply with his Treatment Plan during Stage Two will be subject to:
(a) A fine of four-seventeenths (4/17) of the amount in Paragraph 5 of the NFL Player Contract if the player has successfully completed Stage One; and
(b) A suspension for the period of time to cover four consecutive regular season and post-season (including Pro Bowl, if selected) games without pay if he did not successfully complete Stage One.
(2)Discipline for Second Failure to Comply in Stage Two: A player who has two Positive Tests in Stage Two; or fails twice, as determined by the Medical Director, to comply with his Treatment Plan in Stage Two; or has a Positive Test and fails to comply with his Treatment Plan, as determined by the Medical Director, will incur:
(a) A suspension for the period of time to cover four consecutive regular and post season games (including the Pro Bowl, if selected) without pay if the player was fined pursuant to Section E.2.b.(1)(a) above; and
(b) A suspension for the period of time to cover six consecutive regular and post season games (including the Pro Bowl, if selected) without pay if the player was suspended pursuant to Section E.2.b.(1)(b) above.”
Pretty straightforward. You would think someone in Stage 2 would take this seriously. After all, where else can you get paid this much money as in the NFL? But addiction is a very tough thing to beat. But stay away from Stage 3!!!
In Stage 3, the player has failed the other two stages. There is no time limit on Stage 3. Once in this stage, you are in this stage for the rest of your career, period. Unannounced testing, counseling from all angles, NO TOLERANCE for failure. This is stricter than the requirements of the military, companies, or any other sport I know of.
You fail in Stage 3, the penalty is, in the NFL’s own words, BANISHMENT! First for a minimum of one year, second, while it is on a case by case basis the chances of maintaining your career are pretty slim. Start looking at a new line of work. Once you are banished, you do not get paid regardless of whether is was a guaranteed signing bonus or not. If you apply for reinstatement, and are reinstated, then you can pick up your contract. Although many teams have clauses in the behavioral section of the contract that would nullify it if you hit Stage 3. At Stage 3 you are really at the mercy of the NFL to get yourself back in.
Link
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FF Thinker
Footballguy
Which leads to the other possibility to why he will miss games. He is not durable. Out of 6 seasons he has only played (not started) 16 games 1 time (2002).
Brutis
Footballguy
adding Deangelo Williams, Edge, Ronnie Brown and McGahee are all guys i have avoided in my drafts.
nygiants56
Footballguy
this year's Kevan Barlow:
Portis
Morency - b-u-s-t
Maroney
Bush - defenses have spent all offseason figuring out how to stop this guy. Deuce is still hanging around. Bush is a glorified Eric Metcalf. People are overrating him..Great hands..not an impressive runner..tougher schedule for N.O.
FWP - thanks for the great 2006 season, now fade back to obscurity..too much love for this guy, O-line is not what it used to be..
Brandon Jacobs - name me the last 260+ lb, 6'4" RB that lasted a full 16 games and carried the ball over 300 times in a season......I'm waiting........still waiting......tell ya what, give me a call when you find one...
Benson
Portis
Morency - b-u-s-t
Maroney
Bush - defenses have spent all offseason figuring out how to stop this guy. Deuce is still hanging around. Bush is a glorified Eric Metcalf. People are overrating him..Great hands..not an impressive runner..tougher schedule for N.O.
FWP - thanks for the great 2006 season, now fade back to obscurity..too much love for this guy, O-line is not what it used to be..
Brandon Jacobs - name me the last 260+ lb, 6'4" RB that lasted a full 16 games and carried the ball over 300 times in a season......I'm waiting........still waiting......tell ya what, give me a call when you find one...
Benson
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
I look at being the next "Kevan Barlow" is a RB who puts up great numbers in a backup role and everyone talking him up like he's going to be the next great thing. But once he becomes the full time starting RB he flops on his face and doesn't do very well.
With that being said, I have to nominate Brandon Jacobs as the next "Kevan Barlow". Look at his career and he is exactly like Barlow. Puts up huge stats as the backup and now that he becomes the starter everyone thinks he is going to be awesome. But nobody has seen him in a starting role yet they think he will become a top 10 RB cause he was able to put up good stats as backup.
That's what I think it should mean as the next "Kevan Barlow".
With that being said, I have to nominate Brandon Jacobs as the next "Kevan Barlow". Look at his career and he is exactly like Barlow. Puts up huge stats as the backup and now that he becomes the starter everyone thinks he is going to be awesome. But nobody has seen him in a starting role yet they think he will become a top 10 RB cause he was able to put up good stats as backup.
That's what I think it should mean as the next "Kevan Barlow".
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Are any RBs playing for a team that lost it's starting pro bowl QB, WR, some olinemen and has 25% of its salary cap tied up in dead money? Kevan Barlow had a pretty unique set of circumstances surrounding him that people were ignoring for reasons I still can't fathom.
I know what people mean when they say "this year's Kevan Barlow", but the facts are so unique its hard for someone to really be a Kevan Barlow again.
I don't even understand how someone can say Clinton Portis. Not even in the same area code. If Portis had retired or something, maybe you could say Betts or something...
I know what people mean when they say "this year's Kevan Barlow", but the facts are so unique its hard for someone to really be a Kevan Barlow again.
I don't even understand how someone can say Clinton Portis. Not even in the same area code. If Portis had retired or something, maybe you could say Betts or something...
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Name me the last 260+ lb, 6'4" RB period. When you find somoene for me to compare him to, let me know. Give me a call when you find one.
fsufan
Footballguy
this is what I thought the original post was asking.the answer is MJD
Banger
Footballguy
agreed
Futeki
Footballguy
That was my first thought, too. Although I may still fall for it in the second...
thebestupsman
Footballguy
and runs a 4.4,40. I'll be waiting too.
DropKick
Footballguy
This isn't the NFL's "own words". It's a mix of rules and commentary. I have heard several announcers/analysts make references to someone getting "out of the program" at some point. I don't know exactly what the rule is but the site you quote is inconsistent with itself. Note that after talking about stage 3 being permanent they refer to a player getting out:"Well, what are they testing for? The usual banned substances, cocaine, marijuana, steroids, but you can also be reported for and put in the program because of alcohol abuse. These all are watched not only by the individual teams but also by the ever present NFL security. They actually do follow players, teams, etc. VERY closely. So this is what it is. Big kudos to Dale Carter. To get out of Stage 3 he must have worked really hard on his issues, good for him!"Penguin said:
And my vote for this year's Barlow stays in Florida: Caddy or Ronnie Brown.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Remember that to "qualify" as this year's Kevan Barlow, you have to have a TON of hype thrown your way - enough to cause you to move disproportionately up the draft charts.
Travis Henry seems to fit that bill. He may wind up being a productive RB this year, but when you see him consistently being ranked and/or drafted as a top 10 RB, you have to be a bit skeptical.
Facts going against him:
Since Clinton Portis left (2003), the Broncos have not had a RB that finished in the top 10 fantasy RB's.
Travis Henry has not finished in the top 10 fantasy RB's since then (2003), either.
Again, it wouldn't surprise me if Henry DID finish as a top 10 RB this year, but drafting him as such smells a bit of overhype.
Travis Henry seems to fit that bill. He may wind up being a productive RB this year, but when you see him consistently being ranked and/or drafted as a top 10 RB, you have to be a bit skeptical.
Facts going against him:
Since Clinton Portis left (2003), the Broncos have not had a RB that finished in the top 10 fantasy RB's.
Travis Henry has not finished in the top 10 fantasy RB's since then (2003), either.
Again, it wouldn't surprise me if Henry DID finish as a top 10 RB this year, but drafting him as such smells a bit of overhype.
DaddyFatSacks
Footballguy
I can't draft one damn Rb outside of the top 10 after reading this thread.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Unfortunately, this is the kind of thinking that can keep you from winning championships. No one is saying to overpay for him. However, if you go simply by past #'s and don't evaluate situations, especially new and different ones and go after potential (instead of react), you're going to miss the boat too often. If you simply rely on past performances and "already-known" information, then it's difficult to be the top team without some luck going your way. Everyone else knows what you know if that's the case. What can separate you from other owners is being able to correctly evaluate and predict potential great situations.If you looked at fantasy players simply on past production, you would have missed out on Chester Taylor last year. Same with Willie Parker. Probably missed out on Walker. Or maybe you grabbed Edge because of his past performance without realizing his situation in Arizona was a setup for failure. Players change teams quite a bit or get thrust into new feature roles often and it's part of our job to look at situations and players and use past information to try to predict what may happen, but not to use past information to simply take as gospel. There are too many indications that Henry will succeed vs. those that he won't. If you don't feel comfortable with those predictions or you simply don't like to take risks with unknowns, then that's fine. But the teams that I've noticed win more often than not are the ones that do take risks and it often means evaluating an unknown situation and seeing that there's some great potential. Henry in Denver is one of those things and taking him in the first round isn't overhype. If it's wrong, so be it. But I'll take Henry in the first before I take Rudi, that's for sure.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Buffalo got blown out in just 2 games last year (against the Bears and the 2nd game against the Pats). More likely is that Baltimore's games will be lower scoring in general because of their defense and the Ravens will employ a ball control offense.CoachD00 said:
Do you think that maybe that's because he was SPLITTING carries with Jones? He did manage to avg. 4.1 ypc last season. Benson will be fine.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
thebestupsman said:
zadok
Footballguy
When did Barlow put up "huge stats"? His career high for TDs is 7. His first 2 years in the league as a backup, he had 8 rushing TDs. Jacobs had 16. Jacobs could still flop as a starter, but to this point he looks much better than Barlow did.Mr. Peterson said:
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zadok
Footballguy
4.1 ypc is nothing to brag about...
Banger
Footballguy
very borderline. He's gone mid 4th in most mocks I've been a part of...
Broadway Danny Rose
Footballguy
-Crippler-
Footballguy
I said:
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Well, how about his 3rd year before he became the starter where he posted over 1000 yards and a 5.1 average? Or how about his 4.7 average the year before that?Jacobs has averaged a lousy 3.9 a carry so far in his career. So what, they take a huge guy and tell him to run straight into the endzone so he gets TD's. Alstott could do that. Does that make him a stud? Duckett could do that. He scored 11 TD's his second year. How about him?All I'm saying is being a TD guy doesn't translate into being a complete RB. I mean, the guy has a total of 11 caught passes in his career and you guys are talking about him as a complete RB. Quite simply, Jacobs is definitly over-hyped. If you are looking for someone to compare Jacobs to look no farther than TJ Duckett. In my opinion, he will be no better or no worse that Duckett. With the only exception being that Duckett had a MUCH better start to his career.
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