Opportunity opportunity opportunity. One thing that guys like Bowe, Holmes, Roddy, and Engram had in common was opportunity. If we're looking for surprise breakout WRs, we should look around the league and find teams with open starting jobs or new starters. That's a good place to start. Possibilities:
Buffalo - WR2
Miami - WR1, WR2
Ravens - WR2
Jaguars - WR1, WR2
Titans - WR1, WR2
Broncos - WR2
Chiefs - WR2
Raiders - WR1, WR2
Bears - WR1, WR2
Lions - WR2
Vikings - WR1, WR2
Falcons - WR2
Panthers - WR2
Saints - WR2
Buccaneers - WR2
Rams - WR2
49ers - WR1, WR2
Seahawks - WR1, WR2
These are the obvious situations that could produce a breakout WR without needing an injury to a starter. Now look at the list and identify the candidates for each of these slots:
Buffalo - WR2 - Hardy
Miami - WR1, WR2 - Hagan, Ginn
Ravens - WR2 - Clayton, Williams
Jaguars - WR1, WR2 - Williams, Porter
Titans - WR1, WR2 -
Broncos - WR2 - Jackson, Royal
Chiefs - WR2 - Darling
Raiders - WR1, WR2 - Curry, Walker
Bears - WR1, WR2 - Booker, Hester, Bradley, Bennett
Lions - WR2 - Calvin
Vikings - WR1, WR2 - Rice, Berrian
Falcons - WR2 - Robinson
Panthers - WR2 - Jarrett, Muhammad, Hackett
Saints - WR2 - Meachem, Patten
Buccaneers - WR2 - Bryant, Clayton
Rams - WR2 - Bennett, Avery
49ers - WR1, WR2 - Bruce, Johnson, Battle
Seahawks - WR1, WR2 - Burleson, Taylor, Obomanu
That's a pretty good sleeper WR list to draft from. One way to potentially narrow the field is to consider which of these guys have some evidence that suggests a breakout. Breakouts rarely happen "out of nowhere" like Colston's. More often than not there are at least a few hints. For example, I don't consider Santonio's breakout a surprise. He had over 500 receiving yards in the second half of his rookie year. Bowe was a high pick rookie entering a situation with no clear quality WR1 (Boldin, Clayton redux). Engram had been very productive on a PPG basis before getting hurt in 2006. If you looked closely, you could see these breakouts coming. These guys seem like the most ideal candidates for 2008:
Isaac Bruce - The crafty veteran who knows the system. He's the best WR on the roster. Martz knows how to use him.
Sidney Rice - Seemed to make at least one great catch every week last year. With a competent QB, he's a serious threat for 1,000 yards. Is Jackson competent?
Calvin Johnson - Of the guys on this list, he's the closest thing to Holmes: a first round pick who had a solid rookie year.
Laurent Robinson - He's been gimped by injuries lately and there might not be enough targets to go around, but he was handed the WR2 job pretty early and it's entirely possible that he's better than Roddy White.
Nate Burleson - Solid player in a system that turns solid players into top 20 WRs. Book him.
Derek Hagan/Ted Ginn - One of these guys will win the WR1 job and threaten the 1,000 yard barrier by default.