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Who is your Top 10 going into 06'? (1 Viewer)
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ShadowMaster
Footballguy
Just some observations.......
OVER-VALUED
Drew Bledsoe - Parcells coaching style has always been conservative, mistake free, ball-control. He is all about the strong run game and defense. As a Steeler fan I respect him a ton. With all that said, Ward does not make Roth top 10 in this system, and TO won't make Bledsoe top 10. Not enough passing TDs in the Parcells offense for that high of a ranking. Guys in Dallas to target for big years would be anyone who actually grabs and holds the RB1 slot (J.Jones?) and the TE Witten.
Trent Green - The people who installed the high-powered RAMS style offense are all gone now and in is a conservative and defensive minded coach. When has a Herm Edwards coached QB ever had big stats? LJ is probably in for a huge year, but I'd look for a drop in the passing game for KC. Gonzo is getting older and the LBs are covering him better. The drop in TDs and big plays last year show this. The best WR, Kennison, is a fantasy WR3 in most leagues. I'd gamble on the Skins playing for Saunders before I took any pieces of the KC passing attack.
UNDER-VALUED
Drew Brees - The team will be adjusted from the storm issues now. Bress has solid weapons in McCallister, Horn, and Stallworth. The new head coach, Payton, is known for his passing attacks. Brooks had big games with these guys, and Bress will too.
Mark Brunell - As you can see from this post, I'm big on team philosophies when rating players. The skins have added the OC that coached one of the top Os that past 4 years. With Givens and Lloyd joining Santana, the WRs look much stronger. Upgrade all Skins, including shhhhhhhh Brunell.
OVER-VALUED
Drew Bledsoe - Parcells coaching style has always been conservative, mistake free, ball-control. He is all about the strong run game and defense. As a Steeler fan I respect him a ton. With all that said, Ward does not make Roth top 10 in this system, and TO won't make Bledsoe top 10. Not enough passing TDs in the Parcells offense for that high of a ranking. Guys in Dallas to target for big years would be anyone who actually grabs and holds the RB1 slot (J.Jones?) and the TE Witten.
Trent Green - The people who installed the high-powered RAMS style offense are all gone now and in is a conservative and defensive minded coach. When has a Herm Edwards coached QB ever had big stats? LJ is probably in for a huge year, but I'd look for a drop in the passing game for KC. Gonzo is getting older and the LBs are covering him better. The drop in TDs and big plays last year show this. The best WR, Kennison, is a fantasy WR3 in most leagues. I'd gamble on the Skins playing for Saunders before I took any pieces of the KC passing attack.
UNDER-VALUED
Drew Brees - The team will be adjusted from the storm issues now. Bress has solid weapons in McCallister, Horn, and Stallworth. The new head coach, Payton, is known for his passing attacks. Brooks had big games with these guys, and Bress will too.
Mark Brunell - As you can see from this post, I'm big on team philosophies when rating players. The skins have added the OC that coached one of the top Os that past 4 years. With Givens and Lloyd joining Santana, the WRs look much stronger. Upgrade all Skins, including shhhhhhhh Brunell.
Two good posts, besides, McNabb only had TO for 1 1/2 seasons, he was a stud long before he got there so expecting a drop off without a dominant WR should not be a concern.I am rather high on Bledsoe this season, but your comment about Parcells' offense and the way it limits the passing game concerned me. I looked into it (courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference) and was relieved to discover that Parcells adapts his offense to the available talent.Though you stated in your post that there are "not enough passing TDs in the Parcells offense" to rank Bledsoe highly, I prefer to look at pass attempts to gauge Bledsoe's opportunity for potential fantasy success. The following statistics show Parcells-coached teams and their league-wide rank in Rush Attempts and Pass Attempts. His coaching career has been broken into three categories: tons of passes, tons of rushes, and little bit of both.
TONS OF PASSES
1983 NYG -- Rushing: 16th -- Passing: 3rd
1984 NYG -- Rushing: 13th -- Passing: 9th
1993 NE -- Rushing: 4th -- Passing: 5th (Bledsoe)
1994 NE -- Rushing: 11th -- Passing: 1st (Bledsoe)
1995 NE -- Rushing: 12th -- Passing: 1st (Bledsoe)
1996 NE -- Rushing: 22nd -- Passing: 2nd (Bledsoe)
1997 NYJ -- Rushing: 20th -- Passing: 8th
**Note: For his three full years with Parcells (1994-1996), Bledsoe attempted more passes per season than at any other point in his career (691, 636, 623 attempts respectively). Bledsoe has attempted 600+ passes only one other time since parting with Parcells (2002 BUF -- 610 attempts)**
TONS OF RUSHES
1985 NYG -- Rushing: 2nd -- Passing: 21st
1986 NYG -- Rushing: 5th -- Passing: 22nd
1989 NYG -- Rushing: 2nd -- Passing: 25th
1990 NYG -- Rushing: 2nd -- Passing: 27th
1998 NYJ -- Rushing: 5th -- Passing: 14th
1999 NYJ -- Rushing: 8th -- Passing: 29th
2003 DAL -- Rushing: 4th -- Passing: 19th
2005 DAL -- Rushing: 5th -- Passing: 18th (Bledsoe)
LITTLE BIT OF BOTH
1987 NYG -- Rushing: 22nd -- Passing: 13th
1988 NYG -- Rushing: 14th -- Passing: 11th
2004 DAL -- Rushing: 14th -- Passing: 17th
I see from these statistics that Parcells' teams have been in the league top-10 in rush attempts 9 times...and have been in the league top-10 in pass attempts 7 times. He seems to use his offense however he can to get the job done.
Regarding passing touchdowns...Parcells' teams have been in the league top-10 in passing touchdowns 6 times (1986, 1987, 1988, 1994, 1996, 1998) and have been in the league top-10 in rushing touchdowns...6 times (1985, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1995, 1996).
I feel reassured that Parcells can take advantage of his offense's passing/receiving talent to make Bledsoe a fine fantasy performer this season.
I can't find the spreadsheet containing my (very initial) projections.
Not a huge deal; I can re-do what I'd done so far pretty quickly, but having it in front of me would have made this question easier to answer.Anyway, the short answer is that what I've done so far does not include any subjective judgments. I've run some regression analyses to find the formulas that best predict the next year's team offensive stats in certain categories based on the previous year's stats.For the Giants' 2006 pass attempts, it spit out a high number mostly because of the Giants' high 2005 win percentage and low 2005 run-pass ratio. (Winning teams tend to run more offensive plays in general since they convert more third downs on offense and give up fewer first downs on defense, so their offense tends to stay on the field longer.)
I have not yet made any adjustments for coaching/personnel changes or other similar factors. But just based on 2005 stats, I'd expect the Giants' 2006 pass attempts to be about 0.71 standard deviations higher than the average team's.
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(HULK)
(Smash)
Thanks much.I won't be doing my offical projections until august, but I fully expect Eli to be in my top 5, possibly as high as 2 or 3... it really depends on how much I expect him to progress between year 2 and 3, and how much injuries are effecting other QBs.I can't find the spreadsheet containing my (very initial) projections.
For the Giants' 2006 pass attempts, it spit out a high number mostly because of the Giants' high 2005 win percentage and low 2005 run-pass ratio. (Winning teams tend to run more offensive plays in general since they convert more third downs on offense and give up fewer first downs on defense, so their offense tends to stay on the field longer.)
I have not yet made any adjustments for coaching/personnel changes or other similar factors. But just based on 2005 stats, I'd expect the Giants' 2006 pass attempts to be about 0.71 standard deviations higher than the average team's.
Personally, I don't see a lot of love for Eli for some reason, so I expect him to be a steal come draft day.
pigskinliquors
Dr. Parrothead
Great post Wade! Bledsoe is one of MANY qb's who have the potential to be top 3 or a bust. This is the year of qb avoidance = draft 3 late and hope!
-OZ-
Footballguy
I might consider going with 3 aging vets and hoping for the best, depending on value of course. Bledsoe, Brunell and McNair all have potential, yet might slide a bit due to age. Of course my top value QB is still Roethlisberger, so a combination of Brunell or Bledsoe and Big Ben should be money.Buttmonkey
Footballguy
Guys, most of you take a cave man mentality to your views. Case in point is Culpepper. You assume because Moss was gone that he will not regain his pro-bowl form. But for one minute think about what happened in Minnesota. New offensive coordinator, favorite receiver gone, offensive line hurt and giving up way too much pressure. Factor all those in and of course a QB is going to slide. But don't for one second think that just because Culpepper doesn't have Moss anymore that he's never going to be dominate. I know he's going back to a system that was run in Minny prior to last season, so that has to helps a lot. Chambers is a pro-bowl receiver so that has to help. Miami has a legit running game and a back that's excellent at catching balls, so that will be a factor as well. Culpepper has performed well without Moss in the past, and if you guys bother to look up his stats I'm pretty sure not all his TD passes went to Randy. In fact, he scored 39 TDs before last season and Moss was hurt most of the year.
Not everything is black and white.
Not everything is black and white.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
If we are talking dynasty rankings, I agree re: Culpepper. I think that he'll flourish in Miami as he'll have nice weapons around him, and I am a huge believer in Saban.
For redraft purposes, however, I won't be touching Culpepper unless he really falls. Considering the extent of his injury, I can't imagine that he'll be 100% to start the 2006 season, if at all in 2006. Further, for fantasy purposes, much of his value lies in his ability to get goal line rushing scores. I certainly don't see him doing much running in 2006.
For 2007 and beyond, I think that Culpepper will return to top five (or so) fantasy status. In redraft leagues, I'll avoid him like the plague in 2006, unless he really falls in the draft.
For redraft purposes, however, I won't be touching Culpepper unless he really falls. Considering the extent of his injury, I can't imagine that he'll be 100% to start the 2006 season, if at all in 2006. Further, for fantasy purposes, much of his value lies in his ability to get goal line rushing scores. I certainly don't see him doing much running in 2006.
For 2007 and beyond, I think that Culpepper will return to top five (or so) fantasy status. In redraft leagues, I'll avoid him like the plague in 2006, unless he really falls in the draft.
Under Parcells last year, Bledsoe was the #6 fantasy QB in the land w/o TO.TO made Jeff Garcia top 5... twice.
If TO accounts for just 4 extra TDs, all things being equal from last year Bledsoe is a top 3 QB (~300 FPs). But last year was a down year for QB play due to injuries so that is unrealistic. 300 FPs is a pretty realistic number in this scenario assuming TO provides even a minimal contribution (26 extra FPs). Since the 2000 season, having 300 FPs averages you as the #7 QB in fantasy. Thats about where i will peg Blesoe. If TO goes off he will push him into the top 5.
If TO plays to form and Bledsoe stays healthy, Bledsoe is almost a lock for top 10.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Thanks for that.
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
Jake Delhomme as #2???? Can I play in your league please????? :X
Whenever I look at QBs, you HAVE to look at how many opportunities they will get to score. A QB like Mcnabb is just not going to be good next year since he will not have the offense in the red zone too often.
Here are my top 10:
Peyton Manning - Always healthy; Great O system; Great WRs; Solid TE; Great OL
After that I see no real #2 but I will call them out as I see them anyways
Eli Manning - Solid WRs, Great TE, Great O system, Great RB who can catch
Carson Palmer - Great WRs, great OL, great QB when healthy. I will take the risk of taking him 3rd because even if he returns for the FF playoffs, he will be gold. I can live with a Jake Delhomme or Aaron Brooks paired with him to carry my team in the interim.
Marc Bulger - Great WRs, great OL, great QB when healthy. Solid running game. Defense bad enough that has to score and plays in NFC West and against NFC North this year. Enough said.
Drew Bledsoe - Improved OL; Great WRs (Glenn, TO), Very solid TE (Witten), 2 solid RBs both of who can catch too (Julius Jones, MBIII).
Tom Brady - This is a case where the QB makes WRs better than the other way around. Ben Watson, Branch, Faulk etc should be good enough targets for this guy.
Kurt Warner - Yes he has to stay healthy but upside potential is HUGE. Great WRs, great RB who can catch too, might get Vernon Davis too. Bad enough D that will have to score by passing. Sucky division and get to play NFC North defenses (except Bears nothing to write home about)
Matt Hasselbeck - Yes, great system, solid OL (not great with Hutch gone), great running game, solid TE, solid WRs. BUT, Shaun always takes TDs away from him & I think loss of Jurevicious hurts him. I do not like Burleson that much.
Aaron Brooks - Again, the upside potential is HUGE. Moss stays healthy, this guy will be a top 10 QB again. Got Porter, Curry and Gabriel. Bad defense. Solid OL. And a RB who can catch the ball. Only downside is will they bench him once they are out of running for the playoffs or a rookie like Vince Young?
David Carr - Again, the upside potential is HUGE. Finally a offensive minded coach who knows what he is doing vs the fiasco they had before in Houston. Solid WRs (AJ & Moulds), Great RBs who can both catch and score receiving TDs (Bush & DD assuming Bush goes there)
I do not trust Culpepper or Mcnabb in the top 10.....sorry folks. Culpepper looked bad even before his injury last year.
Whenever I look at QBs, you HAVE to look at how many opportunities they will get to score. A QB like Mcnabb is just not going to be good next year since he will not have the offense in the red zone too often.
Here are my top 10:
Peyton Manning - Always healthy; Great O system; Great WRs; Solid TE; Great OL
After that I see no real #2 but I will call them out as I see them anyways
Eli Manning - Solid WRs, Great TE, Great O system, Great RB who can catch
Carson Palmer - Great WRs, great OL, great QB when healthy. I will take the risk of taking him 3rd because even if he returns for the FF playoffs, he will be gold. I can live with a Jake Delhomme or Aaron Brooks paired with him to carry my team in the interim.
Marc Bulger - Great WRs, great OL, great QB when healthy. Solid running game. Defense bad enough that has to score and plays in NFC West and against NFC North this year. Enough said.
Drew Bledsoe - Improved OL; Great WRs (Glenn, TO), Very solid TE (Witten), 2 solid RBs both of who can catch too (Julius Jones, MBIII).
Tom Brady - This is a case where the QB makes WRs better than the other way around. Ben Watson, Branch, Faulk etc should be good enough targets for this guy.
Kurt Warner - Yes he has to stay healthy but upside potential is HUGE. Great WRs, great RB who can catch too, might get Vernon Davis too. Bad enough D that will have to score by passing. Sucky division and get to play NFC North defenses (except Bears nothing to write home about)
Matt Hasselbeck - Yes, great system, solid OL (not great with Hutch gone), great running game, solid TE, solid WRs. BUT, Shaun always takes TDs away from him & I think loss of Jurevicious hurts him. I do not like Burleson that much.
Aaron Brooks - Again, the upside potential is HUGE. Moss stays healthy, this guy will be a top 10 QB again. Got Porter, Curry and Gabriel. Bad defense. Solid OL. And a RB who can catch the ball. Only downside is will they bench him once they are out of running for the playoffs or a rookie like Vince Young?
David Carr - Again, the upside potential is HUGE. Finally a offensive minded coach who knows what he is doing vs the fiasco they had before in Houston. Solid WRs (AJ & Moulds), Great RBs who can both catch and score receiving TDs (Bush & DD assuming Bush goes there)
I do not trust Culpepper or Mcnabb in the top 10.....sorry folks. Culpepper looked bad even before his injury last year.
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AnonymousBob
Footballguy
You knock Delhomme yet include Carr?
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
Take note all. Big tip here (yeah I know I will get plenty of fire for this)...
Leftwich! Take a look at how he did for 10 games last year. He was a top 5 QB before he got injured and he is young and coming into his own. Has talent around him to throw the ball to.
WAY underrated
Leftwich! Take a look at how he did for 10 games last year. He was a top 5 QB before he got injured and he is young and coming into his own. Has talent around him to throw the ball to.
WAY underrated
Jedimaster21
Footballguy
DUUUUDDDEEE!!!!
McNabb was #1 two years before TO came to the Eagles (at the time of his injury after ten games), so I wouldn't give TO all the credit for McNabb's fantasy success, although he does get some credit.
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KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Something being overlooked with this comment, is that TO allowed McNabb to transition from a fantasy QB who got a good deal of boost from rushing stats to a QB who was getting almost all of his fantasy points in the passing game. These guys can't run forever.McNabb was on an crazy insane pace of 700 rushing yards and 8-9 TDs in 2002.
So the question is...
Now that the receiving talent is back down to pre-TO levels, will McNabb be able to be that QB who puts up 400-500 rushing yards and a handful of TDs again and stay healthy all year running 60+ times.
If not, top 5 is likely out of the question (barring a surprise trade/FA acquisition of a nice WR), although bottom top 10 is possible.
McNabb looks as if he is actively refusing to run, even if situations where a guy like Bledsoe would take off to pick up a few extra yards to move the chains.
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mistersmith
Footballguy
A few observations - I think with the new NFL schedule out, you can make a much better assessment. Based on my experiences last year, matchups usually mattered for most qbs. Obviously, there are always going to be fluctuations from year to year, but it's important info nonetheless. For those who are looking towards McNabb and Culpepper, Philly and Miami actually have some pretty tough matchups.
Also, concerning Brady's performance last year - yeah Dillon was inconsistent at times. But a lot of this had to do with injuries to their defense, turning every game into a shootout. Patriot's defense should get a lot healthier this year resulting in less need for shootouts.
Bledsoe last year actually started the season on fire...until Flozell Adams, his left tackle got hurt. With protection problems on the left side, his numbers started decreasing. Should be interesting to see what he can do with Owens and a healthy line protecting him giving him time.
Ok, feel free to discuss/debate.
Also, concerning Brady's performance last year - yeah Dillon was inconsistent at times. But a lot of this had to do with injuries to their defense, turning every game into a shootout. Patriot's defense should get a lot healthier this year resulting in less need for shootouts.
Bledsoe last year actually started the season on fire...until Flozell Adams, his left tackle got hurt. With protection problems on the left side, his numbers started decreasing. Should be interesting to see what he can do with Owens and a healthy line protecting him giving him time.
Ok, feel free to discuss/debate.
