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WTF are you talking about? Where did I "go after" Martin's character? I don't doubt he is an exceptional man, and I didn't comment on that, so I don't know why you felt compelled to bring it up. The fact is Bettis has won the NFL Man of the Year award and Martin hasn't. Annual NFL awards are relevant to HOF resumes IMO.[Edited for readability due to quote restrictions.]
what? bored? yeah he's the one off base, cmon JWBThe Pro Football HOF defines modern era as "majority of career played after 1946." So you're off base here, at least on the terminology.Yes. Tinglehoff is very much overdue. BTW, Forget "soon". There hasn't been a center enshrined that played in the moden era, so don't hold your breath.I would think the best center of all time would easily get in at some point soon.
Are you saying the Pro Football HOF does not define modern era as I posted?keep calling 1946 modern, it's a reasonable stance to makeyou're better than this heckling JWBAre you saying the Pro Football HOF does not define modern era as I posted?
1. It would seem that enough time has passed since Anderson played (22 seasons) that he'll have to make it as a senior nominee if he makes it. So IMO he doesn't fit my list. I guess we could start a senior nominee list and put Anderson on it, but I think senior nominees would be much tougher to predict over a set period.2. I think there's little doubt Warner will retire before 2013, so he will be eligible within the window I defined. And somewhere in the Shark Pool someone recently posted that QBs almost always get in on first ballot. I can't verify that, but that wouldn't surprise me. So Warner could definitely make it within this window. If the Cards win tonight, I'll probably move him onto the list.
I'm not heckling anyone. From the Pro Football HOF site:
Maybe you shouldn't have cut off the rest of my initial response to TC, when I said that it was probably just terminology:
Reading comprehension down?[Edited for readability due to quote restrictions.]
I condensed the above quote from the OP. I had projected 35 non senior committee nominee HOFers in the 10 HOF classes from 2009 to 2018, leaving up to 15 unidentified. We are 3 classes in, and these guys have been elected:RB - Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk
I thought about this, but I suspect none of these guys would make it first ballot and maybe not second ballot... it just depends on the competition at the time. DBs don't tend to go early unless they are truly elite (Woodson, Sanders). Moss and TO probably will get delayed due to their attitude issues. And Taylor is no lock IMO. All that said, I agree that it's possible.
Annual update. The class of 2012 (non-senior candidates) is Dawson, Doleman, Kennedy, Martin, and Roaf. Per my updated prediction last year, I predicted all but Doleman. I originally predicted 13 out of the 20 that have made it since the thread started; my updated predictions added 2 more of those who have made it. Altogether, I missed on Randle, Jackson, Wilson, Sabol, and Doleman.This year, I suspect I should add Charles Haley to the predicted list. He has been a finalist for the past 3 years, and that seems to bode well for his chances to make it within the next 6 classes.So... with a max of 30 inductees in the 6 years remaining in my original time frame, I think these guys will make it:QB - Favre, WarnerRB - Bettis, Tomlinson (assuming he plays no more than one more season)WR - Brown, Carter, Harrison, Reed, BruceTE - Gonzalez (assuming he plays no more than one more season)OL - Allen, Pace, Ogden, Walter Jones, ShieldsDL - Strahan, Sapp, HaleyLB - Brooks, Seau, Lewis (assuming he plays no more than one more season)DB - Aeneas WilliamsCoaches - ParcellsContributors - TagliabueThat is 24 guys, leaving up to 6 I am missing. That said, if Parcells coaches the Saints, that might keep him out within the window.Comments? Who is missing?
I have my doubts that Marvin Harrison will be elected to the HOF any time soon. While his on the field credentials are more than strong enough, I think his off the field issues are simply too troubling for the NFL to risk its reputation by associating itself with him any further.
Remember the window I originally asked about included the HOF classes of 2009 to 2018.Favre and Strahan are locks to make it within this window, so not sure why you brought them up. I have already stated that I expect all of these OL to make it within the window, so there really is no problem. Shields is already eligible. Allen and Ogden will be eligible for the class of 2013. Jones will be eligible for the class of 2014. Pace will be eligible for the class of 2015.
IMO Mawae would be the weakest center in the HOF, and arguably the weakest OL in the HOF. I think he is definitely less deserving than all of the OL already named here. I've already projected 5 OL to make it in the next 6 classes, and it's hard to see more making it within that window. For those reasons, I don't see Mawae getting in within the window we are discussing, if ever.
Kickers are allowed. They just aren't deserving relative to their peers on offense and defense. We have been through this numerous times in the Shark Pool.Would you have voted Vinatieri in over guys like Dermontti Dawson, Chris Dolemen, Cortez Kennedy, Curtis Martin, or Willie Roaf? That's what would have to happen in any year for a kicker to make it. It is obvious that HOF caliber players on offense and defense are much more valuable to their teams. They play significantly more snaps and make significantly more impact plays.On top of all that, Vinatieri isn't even in the top 3 of most accomplished kickers. Elam, Lowery, and Morten Andersen are all ahead of him.
Ward would have to make it within his first two years of eligibility to make it within the window we are discussing. I don't think he should make it at all, but, even if he does, I doubt it will be by the class of 2018. (And this all assumes he stays retired and doesn't play again.)
Just to address this bit of trivia, 7 of the 23 Modern Era QBs did not get in on their first year of eligibility (technically, it could be 9, but I give the extra 2 a pass; more on that at the end). The seven QBs are: Len Dawson (7th year of eligibility), Norm Van Brocklin (6), Bob Griese (5), Sonny Jurgensen (4), Joe Namath (3), Fran Tarkenton (3) and Y.A. Tittle (2).The "extra 2" QBs are Otto Graham and Bob Waterfield. Technically, they were eligible for the inaugural class in '63. Both were inducted in '65 so neither "really" made it the first year they were eligible for induction. But they were the first 2 modern era QBs inducted and I don't think they should get dinged from "first ballot" status simply because they didn't make it past the glut of pre-modern players and contributors in '63 and '64.
I stand corrected. Not sure why I had that impression. However, as you mentioned, the majority of QBs have made it in their first year of eligibility, including the last 9 QBs inducted. (Wish the HOF site was more user friendly, with sortable lists, positions listed, etc.)Furthermore, no QBs have been inducted in the past six HOF classes. Warner will be eligible for the class of 2015, and Favre will be eligible for the class of 2016. After an 8 year QB drought, I fully expect Warner and Favre each to make it first ballot.
I originally left them off because it wasn't clear when they will retire. Assuming Moss sees the field this year, there is a chance he will play next year as well, which would mean he won't be eligible within the window being considered here.However, it looks like Owens might be done. If so, he'll have three years to get in within the window being considered here, and I agree that he should definitely get in within that time frame. So I agree he should be added to the list.And I would add Moss as well if he was not set to play this year.
I can surely buy the not within the window theory.I don't disagree that he's less deserving than four of the astounding list you mentioned. I would guess some HOFers aren't as good as those four; that group is just so excellent.Pace does pale a little bit in comparison to those four. I don't like the number of games he missed from a position that demands durability. I'm not sure if any HOF OL wasn't exceptionally durable. I mean so many of the HOF OL will make your jaw drop how they played X years in the NFL and only missed a few games. Pace's time lost is pretty high in comparison.How have you felt about QBs that were a smidge below Montana? Great WRs that weren't as good as Rice? A fun debate used to be Bruce Smith versus Reggie White.Brady and Manning?Elway and Marino?Mawae takes about the biggest hit ever for being 2nd fiddle to Dawson.
If you are asking about Montana and Rice to draw a comparison to comparing Mawae to Allen, Ogden, Jones, and Shields, your question is off base IMO.Rice is clearly the greatest WR of all time. IMO Montana is the greatest QB of all time. I don't believe any of Allen, Ogden, Jones, or Shields are the best of all time. So, while Mawae does not compare favorably to them, it's not the same.
"Marvin Harrison may have murdered a guy and wounded two innocent bystanders (including a two year-old) in an earlier murder attempt, but at least he didn't quit on his team in the middle of the season, insinuate that his former quarterback is gay, or accuse his current quarterback of failing in the Super Bowl due to poor conditioning."This may come off as harsher than I intend, but your judgement seems a bit...off...if you think Randy Moss and Terrell Owens' antics are more damaging to their Hall of Fame bids than the accusations against Marvin Harrison.
For one, we don't know the details in Marv's case, but let's say he was guilty. It's simple to me, this is not baseball with a "good guy" clause, this is football. On the field, Marv is a HoFer. In the locker room, he never caused so much as a stir that we know about.Moss and Owens help destruct their teams. That negatively impacts their value to a team and their value as a player.
I suppose you have a point if it were possible for the NFL to acknowledge Harrison without having this story associated with him. However, the instant Marvin Harrison is elected, every media outlet that has ever wanted a shot at the NFL will parade this story front and center. Maybe there was greater tolerance for off-the-field malfeasance in the past (although it's difficult to think of any recent potential Hall of Fame candidate with as damning allegation against him as those against Harrison, OJ Simpson aside), but there is less tolerance (and far more media exposure) today and a result, Marvin Harrison has to be untouchable to the NFL. There are similarities between OJ Simpson and Marvin Harrison right now (as neither has been/was convicted of murder charges, despite significant evidence against them), however, the one significant distinction between the two is that Simpson was already in the Hall of Fame at the time of the allegations against him. The NFL has ignored Simpson completely since (when is the last time you saw Simpson, one the best RBs in the history of the game, publicly associated with and acknowledged by the NFL?) which I suspect they will do with Harrison as well.
Revised list:QB - Favre, Warner
I didn't re-read the thread, but what about Edge? Ward? Ty Law?I'm not saying they should make it, only that they might be worthy of consideration. Here in NE, I've seen discussions about which Pats players will make it from their run and Law seemingly gets put in the IN category without much discussion.
Personally, I wouldn't vote for Ward. Regardless, I don't expect him to make it in his first two years of eligibility, which is what would have to happen for him to make it in the window under discussion.I don't think Edge is deserving, and I don't think he will ever make it.I feel the same about Ty Law. He doesn't have a compelling case IMO. Historically, it's a high bar to make the HOF as a DB, and I don't think he accomplished enough. I also think it hurts his case that he changed teams 4 times in the second half of his career and just kind of dropped off the national media radar.
The obtuse argument FOR Law was that he was the main DB in the Pats SB run and not many DBs win 3 titles. I agree that the end of his career was less than stellar, but that wouldn't change what he did for the Pats.For better or for worse, when they talk about the Pats glory years with Brady, the HOF givens are always Brady, Law, Seymour, and Vinatieri. Remember, those are the opinions of the hosts and commentators, not mine. They look at those 4 as locks. (And of course BB as well.)I think you might be tossing Edge aside a bit too quickly. He's one of 4 RBs to have 4 seasons with 1500 rushing yards (Dickerson, Payton, and Sanders). That's some pretty good company.
Edge might be a victim of the whole "he did so well because he played with Peyton Manning" line of thinking some have. His case is not helped either by the fact that the Colts won the Super Bowl after he left for Arizona, making some think that the RBs in Indy were interchangeable. Not sure it is fair, but perception counts for an awful lot.
I hear ya. Now consider that Lynn Swann NEVER had a 1,000 yard season (his high was 880), only finished in the Top 10 in receiving yards three times, only scored more than 7 TD in a season twice, and did not put up big career numbers (not in the current Top 200 in career receptions, 196th in career yardage, and 189th in career TD). Sadly, the bar has been set so low that a wide range of receivers can stake a claim to HOF entry.
True, but I think most would agree that Swann is in because of one of the most iconic catches in NFL history (combined with being a 4-time champ), and yet it still took forever for him to make it. Had Reed put up the same numbers and the Bills won all four of those Super Bowls, he'd be in already.
The case for Reed goes like this: at the time he retired, he was top 5 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs; he made 7 Pro Bowls; and he was the top receiver for a team that made 4 consecutive Super Bowls.I agree that it's not a particularly compelling case, but that's the case. The top 5 ranks are probably the strongest part of it.At this point, I would not vote him in. But this thread is about who will make it, not who should make it. He has been a finalist for 6 straight years since he became eligible. IMO the writing is on the wall that he will make it, it's just a question of when.
I think the only HOF locks from those Pats teams are Brady and Belichick.I've had the Vinatieri argument numerous times in this forum and firmly believe he will never make it. I get the argument for Law, I just don't think it's a good enough argument; I think he falls short. I don't know what the argument would be for Seymour... best pass rusher on those championship teams? Like Law, I don't think that comes close to being enough.
Edge has 4 of the Top 5 rushing years in Colts team history. Eric Dickerson was the other one on the list. So Edge had better rushing years than Marshall Faulk and the other Dickerson years as a Colt (and obviously they are HOFers).Just because JWB wants to summarily dismiss him as not being a worthy candidate doesn't mean the HOF voters automatically will. James had some great years and some great career totals. It's not like he put up Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, or Fred Taylor numbers (1 really good year and 10K career yards but not really outstanding in any other year).
At this stage, Seymour has been a 7 time Pro Bowler and a 3-time All Pro with 3 rings. I tend to side with you on this one, but it's not like he has nothing on his resume to stand on.
Let me put it this way, I think Seymour has a better shot than Law or Vinatieri. But I'm not convinced he should or will make it.
That is very possible.
Oh, I am aware. I think Edge will get strong consideration, but fall a bit short. I actually had forgotten how good some of his post-injury seasons were (two 1,500+ rushing yard seasons), so his case is probably better than I thought it would have been before looking at his career numbers.
