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Who Will Be In the Next 10 HOF Classes? (1 Viewer)

In addition to what David posted above, Bettis also has some other things over Martin:1. 1996 NFL Comeback Player of the Year and 2001 NFL Man of the Year awards.2. A Super Bowl ring. And while that is clearly a team accomplishment, Bettis was a veteran leader on that team and IMO his contribution was greater than his numbers.3. His success came as a "big back". Some people will think that makes his accomplishments more impressive.Those aren't huge edges, but, just along with the extra Pro Bowl selection and 1st team All Pro selection, there are a number of small things he has over Martin that collectively help to make up for some of gap in Martin's better numbers.Bettis is a very polarizing player for some reason, despite the fact that he is generally a likable guy (another thing that will probably help his case). There are a lot of people on this board that seem to feel very strongly that he should not be a HOFer.
I don't get the man of the year comment as Curtis has been named man of the year by several organizations, some more than once. Curtis was/is an exceptional man.I'm fairly certain that people in Pittsburgh(Bettis' "hometown" and Curtis' hometown) would have a hard time deciding if Bettis were "a better man" than Curtis. If they can't decide, I don't think anyone else should try to.Go after Warrick Dunn's character next, maybe he hasn't done enough charitable things
WTF are you talking about? Where did I "go after" Martin's character? I don't doubt he is an exceptional man, and I didn't comment on that, so I don't know why you felt compelled to bring it up. The fact is Bettis has won the NFL Man of the Year award and Martin hasn't. Annual NFL awards are relevant to HOF resumes IMO.[Edited for readability due to quote restrictions.]
 
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I would think the best center of all time would easily get in at some point soon. :lmao:
Yes. Tinglehoff is very much overdue. BTW, Forget "soon". There hasn't been a center enshrined that played in the moden era, so don't hold your breath.
The Pro Football HOF defines modern era as "majority of career played after 1946." So you're off base here, at least on the terminology.
what? bored? yeah he's the one off base, cmon JWB
:rolleyes:Are you saying the Pro Football HOF does not define modern era as I posted?
 
I would think the best center of all time would easily get in at some point soon. :IBTL:
Yes. Tinglehoff is very much overdue. BTW, Forget "soon". There hasn't been a center enshrined that played in the moden era, so don't hold your breath.
The Pro Football HOF defines modern era as "majority of career played after 1946." So you're off base here, at least on the terminology.
what? bored? yeah he's the one off base, cmon JWB
:jawdrop:Are you saying the Pro Football HOF does not define modern era as I posted?
keep calling 1946 modern, it's a reasonable stance to makeyou're better than this heckling JWB
 
Responding to the original list:

QB - Favre (lock)

Others: Ken Anderson is a pretty interesting candidate, and I think he deserves it, but I doubt he'll make it. Warner might retire by then - winning today (Super Bowl) would help his image a ton, and probably sew up enshrinement. Anyone else getting in from the modern era, unles there is a suden retirement from manning or Brady would be bad - too many QB's already realtive to position.

RB - Emmitt, Faulk (locks), Martin, Bettis

Tomlinson I don't think will hang them up soon enough to get in the period you mention.

Others: Alexander is a no, and I'm a Seahawk fan.

WR - Rice, Carter, Harrison (locks), Bruce

Brown: I'm not sure he actually makes the HoF anytime soon.

Others: Owens as a non-first ballot guy I can definitley see. He belongs in, but while I normally don't think much of what ballot people get in on, I really would like him to have to wait - a decade might be enough. It would be one more spot deserving candidates form positions other than RB/WR/QB can have every year. Plus the interview responses would be comedy gold. Reed may make it in.

TE - Sharpe, Gonzalez (locks)

OL - Grimm, Kuechenberg, Allen, Pace, Ogden, Walter Jones (locks), Shields, Roaf

Not sure all of these guys will make it within the 10 year window. Assuming those active will retire by 2013.

All of them should. More OL in the hall is a good thing.

Others: Dermontti Dawson should be in. It's weird to be the second best center in your team's history but the best of your era.

DL - Strahan, Sapp, Dent (locks)

Others: Taylor would be a good candidate. I want to Claude Humphrey get in, but I think he's a senior guy.

LB - Brooks, Lewis, Seau

Others:

Gradishar deserves to be in, has he fallen to the senior list as well? I probably am missing a couple other guys

DB - Deion (lock), Aeneas Williams

Others:

Rodney Harrison simply isn't good enough. He's not Ed Reed, Brian Dawkins, or even John Lynch. I think all 3 of those guys will make it at some point.

Not sure about full-time safeties.

Had to comment on this - last time I checked there were normally 2 safeties on the field, same as the first time I checked 30+ years ago. If we start to debate whether safeties should make the Hall - can we rename it "Hall of Quarterbacks and some other guys and just restrict it to "skill positions"?

Specialists - None

Other: Guy might make it eventually as a senior nominee.

Coaches - Parcells

I think you're right on Parcells and why he didn't make it..

Others: Holmgren, if he stays retired - maybe.

Contributors - Tagliabue

I think pretty much everyone who has been the commissioner is in - I'm not sure why it's an automatic. he's okay, but there are a lot of players at ignored positions (OL & entire D) that deserve it more.

Others:

Modell will get in, as will probably some other long-time owners. Sabol due to NFL Films would be a very good choice.
1. It would seem that enough time has passed since Anderson played (22 seasons) that he'll have to make it as a senior nominee if he makes it. So IMO he doesn't fit my list. I guess we could start a senior nominee list and put Anderson on it, but I think senior nominees would be much tougher to predict over a set period.2. I think there's little doubt Warner will retire before 2013, so he will be eligible within the window I defined. And somewhere in the Shark Pool someone recently posted that QBs almost always get in on first ballot. I can't verify that, but that wouldn't surprise me. So Warner could definitely make it within this window. If the Cards win tonight, I'll probably move him onto the list.

3. I'd be fairly surprised if Tomlinson is still playing in 2013. He will be 34 before the 2013 season. Still, I suppose it's possible that he sticks around like Emmitt and Marcus Allen did.

4. I tend to agree on Alexander, which is why I didn't put him on my list.

5. I know opinions vary widely on Tim Brown. But his sheer accomplishments are pretty compelling:

Brown is currently #4 in all time receptions, and that won't change before he becomes eligible next year.

Brown is currently #3 in all time receiving yards, and he'll still be top 5 at worst when he becomes eligible next year.

Brown is currently tied for #6 in all time receiving TDs, and that is not likely to change before he becomes eligible next year.

Brown is currently #5 in all time all purpose yards, and no active players are even within 4000 yards of passing him.

Brown is currently #4 in all time punt returns, and that is unlikely to change before he becomes eligible next year.

Brown is currently #5 in all time punt return yards, and that is unlikely to change before he becomes eligible next year.

Brown made 9 Pro Bowls.

Brown had 1000+ receiving yards for 9 straight seasons.

IMO his resume overall is similar to Carter's, and I think most people think it is a given that Carter will get in. I agree with that, and think Brown is a similar lock to make it. I suppose it's possible he could be forced to wait, but he becomes eligible next year, so he'd have to wait more than 8 years not to make it within the window being discussed here. I can't see that.

6. Agree with your OL comments. I'm just not sure if Dawson will make it within the window, since he hasn't even been a finalist yet. And look at how long it's taking Grimm and Kuechenberg to make it.

7. First off, I think Taylor is a bit of a bubble candidate as of right now. Plus, even if he retires now, he'd have to be inducted within his first 3 years of eligibility to make it within the window being discussed... I tend to doubt he'd make it right away if he retires now.

8. Humphrey was already nominated once as a senior candidate, so he wouldn't fit the criteria of the list being discussed here. [Edit: Obviously, he made it as a senior candidate, and thus does not fit the list I was trying to assemble.]

9. I agree on Gradishar, and I said in the OP that I think he'll eventually get in as a senior nominee.

10. IMO Harrison is much more deserving than Lynch. I don't think it's even close. But I know Lynch has a great reputation and Harrison has a bad reputation, and perception could make a difference.

11. With regard to your safety comments, perhaps you misunderstood the point of the OP. I'm attempting to predict who WILL get in, not who SHOULD get in. There are only 7 modern era safeties in the HOF who did not also play CB, and the last one who made it was Ronnie Lott. I said in the OP that I think both Harrison and Dawkins should make it. But even if one or both of them do make it, it's hard to say if they will get in within the window being discussed here.

12. I have concluded that specialists will likely have to make it as senior nominees. Just look at all the deserving candidates that were available this year, such that guys like Sharpe and Carter didn't make it. Then consider that for Guy to make it this year, someone in the current class would have been bumped. The number of spots available are just too precious to devote one to a specialist IMO, unless we reach a stage where there is a prolonged stretch with few worthy players becoming eligible... and I don't see that as likely.

13. Agree, I should add Modell to the list. I assume it's likely he'll make within the next 8 years... I think he's 83.

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keep calling 1946 modern, it's a reasonable stance to make

you're better than this heckling JWB
I'm not heckling anyone. From the Pro Football HOF site:
Pre-Modern Era is defined as the majority of a members' career that occurred prior to 1946. Modern Era is defined as a majority of a members' career that occurred after 1946.
Maybe you shouldn't have cut off the rest of my initial response to TC, when I said that it was probably just terminology:
The Pro Football HOF defines modern era as "majority of career played after 1946." So you're off base here, at least on the terminology. Perhaps you meant a center hasn't been enshrined that played after 1990...? That is when Webster's career ended.
Reading comprehension down?[Edited for readability due to quote restrictions.]

 
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I would like to try to determine who the non senior/old timer HOFers will be in the next 10 classes. Per the current guidelines, that means 40-50 HOFers.

Obviously, to be eligible to make the next 10 classes, any active player would have to retire before the 2013 season.

I think these guys are very likely to be HOFers in the next 10 classes:

QB - Favre

RB - Emmitt, Faulk, Martin, Bettis, Tomlinson

WR - Rice, Brown, Carter, Harrison, Bruce

TE - Sharpe, Gonzalez

OL - Grimm, Kuechenberg, McDaniel, Allen, Pace, Ogden, Walter Jones, Shields, Roaf

DL - Bruce Smith, Strahan, Sapp, Dent

LB - Brooks, Lewis, Seau, Derrick Thomas

DB - Deion, Rod Woodson, Aeneas Williams

Coaches - Parcells

Contributors - Tagliabue

That's 35. So there is room for 15 more guys I didn't include... like Warner, Alexander, Reed, Owens on an early ballot, Jason Taylor, Rodney Harrison, and several others.

Who do you think will make it? Note that will make it and should make it are different, though we can talk about both.
I condensed the above quote from the OP. I had projected 35 non senior committee nominee HOFers in the 10 HOF classes from 2009 to 2018, leaving up to 15 unidentified. We are 3 classes in, and these guys have been elected:RB - Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk

WR - Jerry Rice

TE - Shannon Sharpe

OL - Randall McDaniel, Russ Grimm

DL - Bruce Smith, John Randle, Richard Dent

LB - Derrick Thomas, Rickey Jackson

DB - Rod Woodson, Deion Sanders

Contributors - Ralph Wilson, Jr., Ed Sabol

So I missed Randle, Jackson, Wilson, and Sabol. IMO no one could have predicted Jackson, and I think he was a weak choice. I don't know why I missed Randle, he seems pretty obvious in retrospect. Wilson and Sabol are harder for me... it's hard for me to assess non-players as well as players, and it's especially hard to put them in over deserving players... I would always have a hard time choosing someone like Ralph Wilson over someone like Cris Carter or Aeneas Williams.

Interesting that the past 3 classes have chosen 7 defensive players and 6 offensive players. It probably hasn't happened often in a span of 3 classes that more defensive players were chosen.

I now think some others can be added to my list, meaning I think they will get in within the next 7 classes:

1. Kurt Warner had his last Super Bowl run after my OP, and he finished with a strong final two seasons. I now think he is a lock, and almost every single QB in the HOF made it on his first ballot (maybe every QB, not sure).

2. Andre Reed has been a finalist for the past 5 years, and I'm pretty sure no WR has been a finalist that many times without making it.

3. Dermontti Dawson has been a finalist for the past 3 years, so I think he is likely to make it within the window. However, I don't think 8 OL are likely to make it in the next 7 classes, so presumably one or more players between Dawson and the OL listed above won't get in. Curiously, Kuechenburg had been a finalist for 8 straight seasons prior to last the 2010 class, but now he has not made the finalists for two years in a row. Maybe he will miss.

4. Cortez Kennedy has been a finalist for the past 3 years, so I think he is likely to make it within the window.

So... with a max of 35 inductees in the 7 years remaining in my original time frame, I think these guys will make it:

QB - Favre, Warner

RB - Martin, Bettis, Tomlinson (assuming he plays no more than two more seasons)

WR - Brown, Carter, Harrison, Reed, Bruce

TE - Gonzalez (assuming he plays no more than two more seasons)

OL - Allen, Pace, Ogden, Walter Jones, Shields, Roaf, Dawson

DL - Strahan, Sapp, Kennedy

LB - Brooks, Seau, Lewis (assuming he plays no more than two more seasons)

DB - Aeneas Williams

Coaches - Parcells

Contributors - Tagliabue

That's 27 guys, leaving up to 8 that I am missing. Some guys I did not include that may merit strong consideration during this period include Dungy, Modell, and Haley.

Comments?

 
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Some of the remaining 8 could be determined by who retires in the next two years. Possibilities are: Moss, T.O., Jason Taylor, Ronde Barber, Brian Dawkins. Moss and T.O. should get in quickly, but who knows if they will. Even if they retire soon, I doubt Taylor, Barber, or Dawkins make into your window (if at all).

 
Some of the remaining 8 could be determined by who retires in the next two years. Possibilities are: Moss, T.O., Jason Taylor, Ronde Barber, Brian Dawkins. Moss and T.O. should get in quickly, but who knows if they will. Even if they retire soon, I doubt Taylor, Barber, or Dawkins make into your window (if at all).
I thought about this, but I suspect none of these guys would make it first ballot and maybe not second ballot... it just depends on the competition at the time. DBs don't tend to go early unless they are truly elite (Woodson, Sanders). Moss and TO probably will get delayed due to their attitude issues. And Taylor is no lock IMO. All that said, I agree that it's possible.
 
We are 3 classes in, and these guys have been elected:RB - Emmitt Smith, Marshall FaulkWR - Jerry RiceTE - Shannon SharpeOL - Randall McDaniel, Russ GrimmDL - Bruce Smith, John Randle, Richard DentLB - Derrick Thomas, Rickey JacksonDB - Rod Woodson, Deion SandersContributors - Ralph Wilson, Jr., Ed SabolSo I missed Randle, Jackson, Wilson, and Sabol...I now think some others can be added to my list, meaning I think they will get in within the next 7 classes:1. Kurt Warner had his last Super Bowl run after my OP, and he finished with a strong final two seasons. I now think he is a lock, and almost every single QB in the HOF made it on his first ballot (maybe every QB, not sure).2. Andre Reed has been a finalist for the past 5 years, and I'm pretty sure no WR has been a finalist that many times without making it.3. Dermontti Dawson has been a finalist for the past 3 years, so I think he is likely to make it within the window. However, I don't think 8 OL are likely to make it in the next 7 classes, so presumably one or more players between Dawson and the OL listed above won't get in. Curiously, Kuechenburg had been a finalist for 8 straight seasons prior to last the 2010 class, but now he has not made the finalists for two years in a row. Maybe he will miss.4. Cortez Kennedy has been a finalist for the past 3 years, so I think he is likely to make it within the window.So... with a max of 35 inductees in the 7 years remaining in my original time frame, I think these guys will make it:QB - Favre, WarnerRB - Martin, Bettis, Tomlinson (assuming he plays no more than two more seasons)WR - Brown, Carter, Harrison, Reed, BruceTE - Gonzalez (assuming he plays no more than two more seasons)OL - Allen, Pace, Ogden, Walter Jones, Shields, Roaf, DawsonDL - Strahan, Sapp, KennedyLB - Brooks, Seau, Lewis (assuming he plays no more than two more seasons)DB - Aeneas WilliamsCoaches - ParcellsContributors - TagliabueThat's 27 guys, leaving up to 8 that I am missing.
Annual update. The class of 2012 (non-senior candidates) is Dawson, Doleman, Kennedy, Martin, and Roaf. Per my updated prediction last year, I predicted all but Doleman. I originally predicted 13 out of the 20 that have made it since the thread started; my updated predictions added 2 more of those who have made it. Altogether, I missed on Randle, Jackson, Wilson, Sabol, and Doleman.This year, I suspect I should add Charles Haley to the predicted list. He has been a finalist for the past 3 years, and that seems to bode well for his chances to make it within the next 6 classes.So... with a max of 30 inductees in the 6 years remaining in my original time frame, I think these guys will make it:QB - Favre, WarnerRB - Bettis, Tomlinson (assuming he plays no more than one more season)WR - Brown, Carter, Harrison, Reed, BruceTE - Gonzalez (assuming he plays no more than one more season)OL - Allen, Pace, Ogden, Walter Jones, ShieldsDL - Strahan, Sapp, HaleyLB - Brooks, Seau, Lewis (assuming he plays no more than one more season)DB - Aeneas WilliamsCoaches - ParcellsContributors - TagliabueThat is 24 guys, leaving up to 6 I am missing. That said, if Parcells coaches the Saints, that might keep him out within the window.Comments? Who is missing?
 
QB - Favre, Warner

RB - Bettis, Tomlinson (assuming he plays no more than one more season)

WR - Brown, Carter, Harrison, Reed, Bruce

TE - Gonzalez (assuming he plays no more than one more season)

OL - Allen, Pace, Ogden, Walter Jones, Shields

DL - Strahan, Sapp, Haley

LB - Brooks, Seau, Lewis (assuming he plays no more than one more season)

DB - Aeneas Williams

Coaches - Parcells

Contributors - Tagliabue

Comments? Who is missing?
I have my doubts that Marvin Harrison will be elected to the HOF any time soon. While his on the field credentials are more than strong enough, I think his off the field issues are simply too troubling for the NFL to risk its reputation by associating itself with him any further.
 
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Those OL are disturbing. It's a shun to not vote every one of them in. What an incredible group. I would guess those five have 60 pro bowls and/or All Pros between em'.

They make considering any position difficult and a guy like Favre or Strahan, sure he deserves it but wait this OL was awesome too and there's only so many spots.

For the sake of fans debating, I'd prefer they just let those guys in one year so we can go back to debating skill positions.

Suggestions-

Mawae deserves in.

We're not trained to love non-Steeler Centers in the AFC and he sure had an uphill battle going against Dermontti to get All Pro and Pro Bowl nods. We regularly (incorrect or not) see 2nd and 3rd best LB, RB, QB etc of their era get voted in. Mawae being the second best center shouldn't be held against him. If that's the case, GL picking the best tackle of that group mentioned above.

At some point, JWB, we're going down the Vinatieri road again. I don't think it can be that kickers(or any position) don't make the hall of fame. Once kickers are genuinely allowed(or accepted by fans as HOF eligible) and not just an annoyance to fans, we need to hash out some criteria. Pretty sure Adam makes it and a guy like Elam makes us shake our head at the idea of two kickers going.

Re-list, might as well add Hines Ward since he's an annual debate here and the committee will surely do the same.

 
Those OL are disturbing. It's a shun to not vote every one of them in. What an incredible group. I would guess those five have 60 pro bowls and/or All Pros between em'. They make considering any position difficult and a guy like Favre or Strahan, sure he deserves it but wait this OL was awesome too and there's only so many spots.For the sake of fans debating, I'd prefer they just let those guys in one year so we can go back to debating skill positions.
Remember the window I originally asked about included the HOF classes of 2009 to 2018.Favre and Strahan are locks to make it within this window, so not sure why you brought them up. I have already stated that I expect all of these OL to make it within the window, so there really is no problem. Shields is already eligible. Allen and Ogden will be eligible for the class of 2013. Jones will be eligible for the class of 2014. Pace will be eligible for the class of 2015.
Mawae deserves in.We're not trained to love non-Steeler Centers in the AFC and he sure had an uphill battle going against Dermontti to get All Pro and Pro Bowl nods. We regularly (incorrect or not) see 2nd and 3rd best LB, RB, QB etc of their era get voted in. Mawae being the second best center shouldn't be held against him. If that's the case, GL picking the best tackle of that group mentioned above.
IMO Mawae would be the weakest center in the HOF, and arguably the weakest OL in the HOF. I think he is definitely less deserving than all of the OL already named here. I've already projected 5 OL to make it in the next 6 classes, and it's hard to see more making it within that window. For those reasons, I don't see Mawae getting in within the window we are discussing, if ever.
At some point, JWB, we're going down the Vinatieri road again. I don't think it can be that kickers(or any position) don't make the hall of fame. Once kickers are genuinely allowed(or accepted by fans as HOF eligible) and not just an annoyance to fans, we need to hash out some criteria. Pretty sure Adam makes it and a guy like Elam makes us shake our head at the idea of two kickers going.
Kickers are allowed. They just aren't deserving relative to their peers on offense and defense. We have been through this numerous times in the Shark Pool.Would you have voted Vinatieri in over guys like Dermontti Dawson, Chris Dolemen, Cortez Kennedy, Curtis Martin, or Willie Roaf? That's what would have to happen in any year for a kicker to make it. It is obvious that HOF caliber players on offense and defense are much more valuable to their teams. They play significantly more snaps and make significantly more impact plays.On top of all that, Vinatieri isn't even in the top 3 of most accomplished kickers. Elam, Lowery, and Morten Andersen are all ahead of him.
Re-list, might as well add Hines Ward since he's an annual debate here and the committee will surely do the same.
Ward would have to make it within his first two years of eligibility to make it within the window we are discussing. I don't think he should make it at all, but, even if he does, I doubt it will be by the class of 2018. (And this all assumes he stays retired and doesn't play again.)
 
id be pretty damn surprised if TO and moss arent first ballot. though it would just once again prove what a joke it all is.

 
1. Kurt Warner had his last Super Bowl run after my OP, and he finished with a strong final two seasons. I now think he is a lock, and almost every single QB in the HOF made it on his first ballot (maybe every QB, not sure).
Just to address this bit of trivia, 7 of the 23 Modern Era QBs did not get in on their first year of eligibility (technically, it could be 9, but I give the extra 2 a pass; more on that at the end). The seven QBs are: Len Dawson (7th year of eligibility), Norm Van Brocklin (6), Bob Griese (5), Sonny Jurgensen (4), Joe Namath (3), Fran Tarkenton (3) and Y.A. Tittle (2).The "extra 2" QBs are Otto Graham and Bob Waterfield. Technically, they were eligible for the inaugural class in '63. Both were inducted in '65 so neither "really" made it the first year they were eligible for induction. But they were the first 2 modern era QBs inducted and I don't think they should get dinged from "first ballot" status simply because they didn't make it past the glut of pre-modern players and contributors in '63 and '64.

 
1. Kurt Warner had his last Super Bowl run after my OP, and he finished with a strong final two seasons. I now think he is a lock, and almost every single QB in the HOF made it on his first ballot (maybe every QB, not sure).
Just to address this bit of trivia, 7 of the 23 Modern Era QBs did not get in on their first year of eligibility (technically, it could be 9, but I give the extra 2 a pass; more on that at the end). The seven QBs are: Len Dawson (7th year of eligibility), Norm Van Brocklin (6), Bob Griese (5), Sonny Jurgensen (4), Joe Namath (3), Fran Tarkenton (3) and Y.A. Tittle (2).The "extra 2" QBs are Otto Graham and Bob Waterfield. Technically, they were eligible for the inaugural class in '63. Both were inducted in '65 so neither "really" made it the first year they were eligible for induction. But they were the first 2 modern era QBs inducted and I don't think they should get dinged from "first ballot" status simply because they didn't make it past the glut of pre-modern players and contributors in '63 and '64.
I stand corrected. Not sure why I had that impression. However, as you mentioned, the majority of QBs have made it in their first year of eligibility, including the last 9 QBs inducted. (Wish the HOF site was more user friendly, with sortable lists, positions listed, etc.)Furthermore, no QBs have been inducted in the past six HOF classes. Warner will be eligible for the class of 2015, and Favre will be eligible for the class of 2016. After an 8 year QB drought, I fully expect Warner and Favre each to make it first ballot.

ETA: Regardless, for purposes of this discussion, Favre should be on the list if he will make it within his first 3 years of eligibility and Warner should be on the list if he will make it in his first 4 years of eligibility. I think both of those things are locks, so they belong on the list IMO.

 
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id be pretty damn surprised if TO and moss arent first ballot. though it would just once again prove what a joke it all is.
I originally left them off because it wasn't clear when they will retire. Assuming Moss sees the field this year, there is a chance he will play next year as well, which would mean he won't be eligible within the window being considered here.However, it looks like Owens might be done. If so, he'll have three years to get in within the window being considered here, and I agree that he should definitely get in within that time frame. So I agree he should be added to the list.And I would add Moss as well if he was not set to play this year.
 
I think Marvin Harrison makes it. He damn well should. Yeah, some really sketchy off the field issues came to light at the end, but this guy was a consummate pro football wise and never caused any problems for his teams unlike Moss and TO who hurt their teams with their selfish antics.

Marvin was the best all around wide receiver of his generation IMO when you consider the negative impacts Moss and TO had on their teams, IMO.

I could see him taking a year or two because of the off field issues but goodness, the football HOF is not a hall of angels by any means and Marv deserves it without question regarding wht he brought to his team.

 
Mawae deserves in.We're not trained to love non-Steeler Centers in the AFC and he sure had an uphill battle going against Dermontti to get All Pro and Pro Bowl nods. We regularly (incorrect or not) see 2nd and 3rd best LB, RB, QB etc of their era get voted in. Mawae being the second best center shouldn't be held against him. If that's the case, GL picking the best tackle of that group mentioned above.
IMO Mawae would be the weakest center in the HOF, and arguably the weakest OL in the HOF. I think he is definitely less deserving than all of the OL already named here. I've already projected 5 OL to make it in the next 6 classes, and it's hard to see more making it within that window. For those reasons, I don't see Mawae getting in within the window we are discussing, if ever.
I can surely buy the not within the window theory.I don't disagree that he's less deserving than four of the astounding list you mentioned. I would guess some HOFers aren't as good as those four; that group is just so excellent.Pace does pale a little bit in comparison to those four. I don't like the number of games he missed from a position that demands durability. I'm not sure if any HOF OL wasn't exceptionally durable. I mean so many of the HOF OL will make your jaw drop how they played X years in the NFL and only missed a few games. Pace's time lost is pretty high in comparison.How have you felt about QBs that were a smidge below Montana? Great WRs that weren't as good as Rice? A fun debate used to be Bruce Smith versus Reggie White.Brady and Manning?Elway and Marino?Mawae takes about the biggest hit ever for being 2nd fiddle to Dawson.
 
Mawae deserves in.

We're not trained to love non-Steeler Centers in the AFC and he sure had an uphill battle going against Dermontti to get All Pro and Pro Bowl nods. We regularly (incorrect or not) see 2nd and 3rd best LB, RB, QB etc of their era get voted in. Mawae being the second best center shouldn't be held against him. If that's the case, GL picking the best tackle of that group mentioned above.
IMO Mawae would be the weakest center in the HOF, and arguably the weakest OL in the HOF. I think he is definitely less deserving than all of the OL already named here. I've already projected 5 OL to make it in the next 6 classes, and it's hard to see more making it within that window. For those reasons, I don't see Mawae getting in within the window we are discussing, if ever.
I can surely buy the not within the window theory.I don't disagree that he's less deserving than four of the astounding list you mentioned. I would guess some HOFers aren't as good as those four; that group is just so excellent.

Pace does pale a little bit in comparison to those four. I don't like the number of games he missed from a position that demands durability. I'm not sure if any HOF OL wasn't exceptionally durable. I mean so many of the HOF OL will make your jaw drop how they played X years in the NFL and only missed a few games. Pace's time lost is pretty high in comparison.

How have you felt about QBs that were a smidge below Montana? Great WRs that weren't as good as Rice?

A fun debate used to be Bruce Smith versus Reggie White.

Brady and Manning?

Elway and Marino?

Mawae takes about the biggest hit ever for being 2nd fiddle to Dawson.
If you are asking about Montana and Rice to draw a comparison to comparing Mawae to Allen, Ogden, Jones, and Shields, your question is off base IMO.Rice is clearly the greatest WR of all time. IMO Montana is the greatest QB of all time. I don't believe any of Allen, Ogden, Jones, or Shields are the best of all time. So, while Mawae does not compare favorably to them, it's not the same.

As for Pace, while he doesn't measure up to some other HOF OL in terms of individual honors/awards, he deserves credit for being an integral member of one of the greatest offenses in NFL history, the Greatest Show on Turf.

 
I think Marvin Harrison makes it. He damn well should. Yeah, some really sketchy off the field issues came to light at the end, but this guy was a consummate pro football wise and never caused any problems for his teams unlike Moss and TO who hurt their teams with their selfish antics.

Marvin was the best all around wide receiver of his generation IMO when you consider the negative impacts Moss and TO had on their teams, IMO.

I could see him taking a year or two because of the off field issues but goodness, the football HOF is not a hall of angels by any means and Marv deserves it without question regarding wht he brought to his team.
"Marvin Harrison may have murdered a guy and wounded two innocent bystanders (including a two year-old) in an earlier murder attempt, but at least he didn't quit on his team in the middle of the season, insinuate that his former quarterback is gay, or accuse his current quarterback of failing in the Super Bowl due to poor conditioning."This may come off as harsher than I intend, but your judgement seems a bit...off...if you think Randy Moss and Terrell Owens' antics are more damaging to their Hall of Fame bids than the accusations against Marvin Harrison.

 
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I think Marvin Harrison makes it. He damn well should. Yeah, some really sketchy off the field issues came to light at the end, but this guy was a consummate pro football wise and never caused any problems for his teams unlike Moss and TO who hurt their teams with their selfish antics.

Marvin was the best all around wide receiver of his generation IMO when you consider the negative impacts Moss and TO had on their teams, IMO.

I could see him taking a year or two because of the off field issues but goodness, the football HOF is not a hall of angels by any means and Marv deserves it without question regarding wht he brought to his team.
"Marvin Harrison may have murdered a guy and wounded two innocent bystanders (including a two year-old) in an earlier murder attempt, but at least he didn't quit on his team in the middle of the season, insinuate that his former quarterback is gay, or accuse his current quarterback of failing in the Super Bowl due to poor conditioning."This may come off as harsher than I intend, but your judgement seems a bit...off...if you think Randy Moss and Terrell Owens' antics are more damaging to their Hall of Fame bids than the accusations against Marvin Harrison.
For one, we don't know the details in Marv's case, but let's say he was guilty. It's simple to me, this is not baseball with a "good guy" clause, this is football. On the field, Marv is a HoFer. In the locker room, he never caused so much as a stir that we know about.Moss and Owens help destruct their teams. That negatively impacts their value to a team and their value as a player.

To me its about football vs. non football, not judging who is a better person.

If it were the latter, Moss would, from all I know, be the best. Charitably minded, done a lot of good work with the community under the radar (even if he is a ##### to the caterer). But his antics did hurt his teams' ability to win, as did Owens. Not true with Marv.

OJ we know killed and it's not as if they took him out of the hall.

 
I think Marvin Harrison makes it. He damn well should. Yeah, some really sketchy off the field issues came to light at the end, but this guy was a consummate pro football wise and never caused any problems for his teams unlike Moss and TO who hurt their teams with their selfish antics.

Marvin was the best all around wide receiver of his generation IMO when you consider the negative impacts Moss and TO had on their teams, IMO.

I could see him taking a year or two because of the off field issues but goodness, the football HOF is not a hall of angels by any means and Marv deserves it without question regarding wht he brought to his team.
"Marvin Harrison may have murdered a guy and wounded two innocent bystanders (including a two year-old) in an earlier murder attempt, but at least he didn't quit on his team in the middle of the season, insinuate that his former quarterback is gay, or accuse his current quarterback of failing in the Super Bowl due to poor conditioning."This may come off as harsher than I intend, but your judgement seems a bit...off...if you think Randy Moss and Terrell Owens' antics are more damaging to their Hall of Fame bids than the accusations against Marvin Harrison.
For one, we don't know the details in Marv's case, but let's say he was guilty. It's simple to me, this is not baseball with a "good guy" clause, this is football. On the field, Marv is a HoFer. In the locker room, he never caused so much as a stir that we know about.Moss and Owens help destruct their teams. That negatively impacts their value to a team and their value as a player.

To me its about football vs. non football, not judging who is a better person.

If it were the latter, Moss would, from all I know, be the best. Charitably minded, done a lot of good work with the community under the radar (even if he is a ##### to the caterer). But his antics did hurt his teams' ability to win, as did Owens. Not true with Marv.

OJ we know killed and it's not as if they took him out of the hall.
I suppose you have a point if it were possible for the NFL to acknowledge Harrison without having this story associated with him. However, the instant Marvin Harrison is elected, every media outlet that has ever wanted a shot at the NFL will parade this story front and center. Maybe there was greater tolerance for off-the-field malfeasance in the past (although it's difficult to think of any recent potential Hall of Fame candidate with as damning allegation against him as those against Harrison, OJ Simpson aside), but there is less tolerance (and far more media exposure) today and a result, Marvin Harrison has to be untouchable to the NFL. There are similarities between OJ Simpson and Marvin Harrison right now (as neither has been/was convicted of murder charges, despite significant evidence against them), however, the one significant distinction between the two is that Simpson was already in the Hall of Fame at the time of the allegations against him. The NFL has ignored Simpson completely since (when is the last time you saw Simpson, one the best RBs in the history of the game, publicly associated with and acknowledged by the NFL?) which I suspect they will do with Harrison as well.

 
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We are 3 classes in, and these guys have been elected:

RB - Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk

WR - Jerry Rice

TE - Shannon Sharpe

OL - Randall McDaniel, Russ Grimm

DL - Bruce Smith, John Randle, Richard Dent

LB - Derrick Thomas, Rickey Jackson

DB - Rod Woodson, Deion Sanders

Contributors - Ralph Wilson, Jr., Ed Sabol

So I missed Randle, Jackson, Wilson, and Sabol...

I now think some others can be added to my list, meaning I think they will get in within the next 7 classes:

1. Kurt Warner had his last Super Bowl run after my OP, and he finished with a strong final two seasons. I now think he is a lock, and almost every single QB in the HOF made it on his first ballot (maybe every QB, not sure).

2. Andre Reed has been a finalist for the past 5 years, and I'm pretty sure no WR has been a finalist that many times without making it.

3. Dermontti Dawson has been a finalist for the past 3 years, so I think he is likely to make it within the window. However, I don't think 8 OL are likely to make it in the next 7 classes, so presumably one or more players between Dawson and the OL listed above won't get in. Curiously, Kuechenburg had been a finalist for 8 straight seasons prior to last the 2010 class, but now he has not made the finalists for two years in a row. Maybe he will miss.

4. Cortez Kennedy has been a finalist for the past 3 years, so I think he is likely to make it within the window.

So... with a max of 35 inductees in the 7 years remaining in my original time frame, I think these guys will make it:

QB - Favre, Warner

RB - Martin, Bettis, Tomlinson (assuming he plays no more than two more seasons)

WR - Brown, Carter, Harrison, Reed, Bruce

TE - Gonzalez (assuming he plays no more than two more seasons)

OL - Allen, Pace, Ogden, Walter Jones, Shields, Roaf, Dawson

DL - Strahan, Sapp, Kennedy

LB - Brooks, Seau, Lewis (assuming he plays no more than two more seasons)

DB - Aeneas Williams

Coaches - Parcells

Contributors - Tagliabue

That's 27 guys, leaving up to 8 that I am missing.
Annual update. The class of 2012 (non-senior candidates) is Dawson, Doleman, Kennedy, Martin, and Roaf. Per my updated prediction last year, I predicted all but Doleman. I originally predicted 13 out of the 20 that have made it since the thread started; my updated predictions added 2 more of those who have made it. Altogether, I missed on Randle, Jackson, Wilson, Sabol, and Doleman.This year, I suspect I should add Charles Haley to the predicted list. He has been a finalist for the past 3 years, and that seems to bode well for his chances to make it within the next 6 classes.

So... with a max of 30 inductees in the 6 years remaining in my original time frame, I think these guys will make it:

QB - Favre, Warner

RB - Bettis, Tomlinson (assuming he plays no more than one more season)

WR - Brown, Carter, Harrison, Reed, Bruce

TE - Gonzalez (assuming he plays no more than one more season)

OL - Allen, Pace, Ogden, Walter Jones, Shields

DL - Strahan, Sapp, Haley

LB - Brooks, Seau, Lewis (assuming he plays no more than one more season)

DB - Aeneas Williams

Coaches - Parcells

Contributors - Tagliabue

That is 24 guys, leaving up to 6 I am missing. That said, if Parcells coaches the Saints, that might keep him out within the window.

Comments? Who is missing?
Revised list:QB - Favre, Warner

RB - Bettis, Tomlinson

WR - Harrison, Owens, Brown, Carter, Reed, Bruce

TE - Gonzalez (assuming he plays no more than one more season)

OL - Allen, Pace, Ogden, Walter Jones, Shields

DL - Strahan, Sapp, Haley

LB - Brooks, Seau, Lewis (assuming he plays no more than one more season)

DB - Aeneas Williams

Coaches - Parcells, Dungy

Contributors - Tagliabue

Added Owens and Dungy, assuming neither is returning within my window. I am assuming Moss will play this year and next year, meaning he won't be eligible.

Seems like a lot of WRs, but I suppose that is merely indicative of how the NFL has evolved over the past 20+ years. Reed, Carter, and Brown have been finalists every year since they became eligible, a total of 6, 5, and 3 years, respectively. I am not aware of any WR who has been a finalist and not been ultimately inducted, and, with 6 classes to go in my window, I have to assume all three of them will make it within the window. IMO Owens and Harrison are locks and should both be first ballot. That leaves Bruce and Holt to be considered. Both will become eligible in for the class of 2016 and thus will have three years to make it within the window. I chose Bruce and assumed Holt would be more likely to slide out of the window, but I'm not confident that is the right call.

Anyway, that leaves at least 4 open spots; if Gonzalez and/or Lewis plays in 2013, they won't be eligible, and their spots would also be open.

Who is missing that should make it within the window?

 
Who is missing that should make it within the window?
I didn't re-read the thread, but what about Edge? Ward? Ty Law?I'm not saying they should make it, only that they might be worthy of consideration. Here in NE, I've seen discussions about which Pats players will make it from their run and Law seemingly gets put in the IN category without much discussion.
 
A few more possibilities came to mind:

I forgot Brian Dawkins retired. I expect he will make it within his first two years of eligibility, meaning he should claim one of the open spots.

Ronde Barber would have to make it in his first year of eligibility if he retires after this season. I don't necessarily see him as a first ballot guy.

Jason Taylor would have to make it in his first two years of eligibility. Not sure what to think about that.

There was discussion earlier in the thread about Modell. Hard for me to project him to edge out players like those under discussion here.

 
Who is missing that should make it within the window?
I didn't re-read the thread, but what about Edge? Ward? Ty Law?I'm not saying they should make it, only that they might be worthy of consideration. Here in NE, I've seen discussions about which Pats players will make it from their run and Law seemingly gets put in the IN category without much discussion.
Personally, I wouldn't vote for Ward. Regardless, I don't expect him to make it in his first two years of eligibility, which is what would have to happen for him to make it in the window under discussion.I don't think Edge is deserving, and I don't think he will ever make it.I feel the same about Ty Law. He doesn't have a compelling case IMO. Historically, it's a high bar to make the HOF as a DB, and I don't think he accomplished enough. I also think it hurts his case that he changed teams 4 times in the second half of his career and just kind of dropped off the national media radar.
 
Should Andre Reed really make it? I think we remember him being better than he really was because he was the main WR on all of those Bills teams, but consider this:

-NEVER had consecutive 1,000 yard seasons

-Only finished in the top 10 in receiving yards three times

-FOUR 1,000 yard seasons TOTAL

-Never a big touchdown producer (87 TD catches in 16 seasons)

 
Who is missing that should make it within the window?
I didn't re-read the thread, but what about Edge? Ward? Ty Law?I'm not saying they should make it, only that they might be worthy of consideration. Here in NE, I've seen discussions about which Pats players will make it from their run and Law seemingly gets put in the IN category without much discussion.
Personally, I wouldn't vote for Ward. Regardless, I don't expect him to make it in his first two years of eligibility, which is what would have to happen for him to make it in the window under discussion.I don't think Edge is deserving, and I don't think he will ever make it.I feel the same about Ty Law. He doesn't have a compelling case IMO. Historically, it's a high bar to make the HOF as a DB, and I don't think he accomplished enough. I also think it hurts his case that he changed teams 4 times in the second half of his career and just kind of dropped off the national media radar.
The obtuse argument FOR Law was that he was the main DB in the Pats SB run and not many DBs win 3 titles. I agree that the end of his career was less than stellar, but that wouldn't change what he did for the Pats.For better or for worse, when they talk about the Pats glory years with Brady, the HOF givens are always Brady, Law, Seymour, and Vinatieri. Remember, those are the opinions of the hosts and commentators, not mine. They look at those 4 as locks. (And of course BB as well.)I think you might be tossing Edge aside a bit too quickly. He's one of 4 RBs to have 4 seasons with 1500 rushing yards (Dickerson, Payton, and Sanders). That's some pretty good company.
 
I think you might be tossing Edge aside a bit too quickly. He's one of 4 RBs to have 4 seasons with 1500 rushing yards (Dickerson, Payton, and Sanders). That's some pretty good company.
Edge might be a victim of the whole "he did so well because he played with Peyton Manning" line of thinking some have. His case is not helped either by the fact that the Colts won the Super Bowl after he left for Arizona, making some think that the RBs in Indy were interchangeable. Not sure it is fair, but perception counts for an awful lot.
 
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Should Andre Reed really make it? I think we remember him being better than he really was because he was the main WR on all of those Bills teams, but consider this: -NEVER had consecutive 1,000 yard seasons-Only finished in the top 10 in receiving yards three times-FOUR 1,000 yard seasons TOTAL-Never a big touchdown producer (87 TD catches in 16 seasons)
I hear ya. Now consider that Lynn Swann NEVER had a 1,000 yard season (his high was 880), only finished in the Top 10 in receiving yards three times, only scored more than 7 TD in a season twice, and did not put up big career numbers (not in the current Top 200 in career receptions, 196th in career yardage, and 189th in career TD). Sadly, the bar has been set so low that a wide range of receivers can stake a claim to HOF entry.
 
Should Andre Reed really make it? I think we remember him being better than he really was because he was the main WR on all of those Bills teams, but consider this: -NEVER had consecutive 1,000 yard seasons-Only finished in the top 10 in receiving yards three times-FOUR 1,000 yard seasons TOTAL-Never a big touchdown producer (87 TD catches in 16 seasons)
I hear ya. Now consider that Lynn Swann NEVER had a 1,000 yard season (his high was 880), only finished in the Top 10 in receiving yards three times, only scored more than 7 TD in a season twice, and did not put up big career numbers (not in the current Top 200 in career receptions, 196th in career yardage, and 189th in career TD). Sadly, the bar has been set so low that a wide range of receivers can stake a claim to HOF entry.
True, but I think most would agree that Swann is in because of one of the most iconic catches in NFL history (combined with being a 4-time champ), and yet it still took forever for him to make it. Had Reed put up the same numbers and the Bills won all four of those Super Bowls, he'd be in already.
 
Should Andre Reed really make it? I think we remember him being better than he really was because he was the main WR on all of those Bills teams, but consider this: -NEVER had consecutive 1,000 yard seasons-Only finished in the top 10 in receiving yards three times-FOUR 1,000 yard seasons TOTAL-Never a big touchdown producer (87 TD catches in 16 seasons)
The case for Reed goes like this: at the time he retired, he was top 5 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs; he made 7 Pro Bowls; and he was the top receiver for a team that made 4 consecutive Super Bowls.I agree that it's not a particularly compelling case, but that's the case. The top 5 ranks are probably the strongest part of it.At this point, I would not vote him in. But this thread is about who will make it, not who should make it. He has been a finalist for 6 straight years since he became eligible. IMO the writing is on the wall that he will make it, it's just a question of when.
 
Who is missing that should make it within the window?
I didn't re-read the thread, but what about Edge? Ward? Ty Law?I'm not saying they should make it, only that they might be worthy of consideration. Here in NE, I've seen discussions about which Pats players will make it from their run and Law seemingly gets put in the IN category without much discussion.
Personally, I wouldn't vote for Ward. Regardless, I don't expect him to make it in his first two years of eligibility, which is what would have to happen for him to make it in the window under discussion.I don't think Edge is deserving, and I don't think he will ever make it.I feel the same about Ty Law. He doesn't have a compelling case IMO. Historically, it's a high bar to make the HOF as a DB, and I don't think he accomplished enough. I also think it hurts his case that he changed teams 4 times in the second half of his career and just kind of dropped off the national media radar.
The obtuse argument FOR Law was that he was the main DB in the Pats SB run and not many DBs win 3 titles. I agree that the end of his career was less than stellar, but that wouldn't change what he did for the Pats.For better or for worse, when they talk about the Pats glory years with Brady, the HOF givens are always Brady, Law, Seymour, and Vinatieri. Remember, those are the opinions of the hosts and commentators, not mine. They look at those 4 as locks. (And of course BB as well.)I think you might be tossing Edge aside a bit too quickly. He's one of 4 RBs to have 4 seasons with 1500 rushing yards (Dickerson, Payton, and Sanders). That's some pretty good company.
I think the only HOF locks from those Pats teams are Brady and Belichick.I've had the Vinatieri argument numerous times in this forum and firmly believe he will never make it. I get the argument for Law, I just don't think it's a good enough argument; I think he falls short. I don't know what the argument would be for Seymour... best pass rusher on those championship teams? Like Law, I don't think that comes close to being enough.
 
I think you might be tossing Edge aside a bit too quickly. He's one of 4 RBs to have 4 seasons with 1500 rushing yards (Dickerson, Payton, and Sanders). That's some pretty good company.
Edge might be a victim of the whole "he did so well because he played with Peyton Manning" line of thinking some have. His case is not helped either by the fact that the Colts won the Super Bowl after he left for Arizona, making some think that the RBs in Indy were interchangeable. Not sure it is fair, but perception counts for an awful lot.
Edge has 4 of the Top 5 rushing years in Colts team history. Eric Dickerson was the other one on the list. So Edge had better rushing years than Marshall Faulk and the other Dickerson years as a Colt (and obviously they are HOFers).Just because JWB wants to summarily dismiss him as not being a worthy candidate doesn't mean the HOF voters automatically will. James had some great years and some great career totals. It's not like he put up Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, or Fred Taylor numbers (1 really good year and 10K career yards but not really outstanding in any other year).
 
I don't know what the argument would be for Seymour... best pass rusher on those championship teams? Like Law, I don't think that comes close to being enough.
At this stage, Seymour has been a 7 time Pro Bowler and a 3-time All Pro with 3 rings. I tend to side with you on this one, but it's not like he has nothing on his resume to stand on.
 
I don't know what the argument would be for Seymour... best pass rusher on those championship teams? Like Law, I don't think that comes close to being enough.
At this stage, Seymour has been a 7 time Pro Bowler and a 3-time All Pro with 3 rings. I tend to side with you on this one, but it's not like he has nothing on his resume to stand on.
Let me put it this way, I think Seymour has a better shot than Law or Vinatieri. But I'm not convinced he should or will make it.
 
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Should Andre Reed really make it? I think we remember him being better than he really was because he was the main WR on all of those Bills teams, but consider this: -NEVER had consecutive 1,000 yard seasons-Only finished in the top 10 in receiving yards three times-FOUR 1,000 yard seasons TOTAL-Never a big touchdown producer (87 TD catches in 16 seasons)
The case for Reed goes like this: at the time he retired, he was top 5 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs; he made 7 Pro Bowls; and he was the top receiver for a team that made 4 consecutive Super Bowls.I agree that it's not a particularly compelling case, but that's the case. The top 5 ranks are probably the strongest part of it.At this point, I would not vote him in. But this thread is about who will make it, not who should make it. He has been a finalist for 6 straight years since he became eligible. IMO the writing is on the wall that he will make it, it's just a question of when.
That is very possible.
I think you might be tossing Edge aside a bit too quickly. He's one of 4 RBs to have 4 seasons with 1500 rushing yards (Dickerson, Payton, and Sanders). That's some pretty good company.
Edge might be a victim of the whole "he did so well because he played with Peyton Manning" line of thinking some have. His case is not helped either by the fact that the Colts won the Super Bowl after he left for Arizona, making some think that the RBs in Indy were interchangeable. Not sure it is fair, but perception counts for an awful lot.
Edge has 4 of the Top 5 rushing years in Colts team history. Eric Dickerson was the other one on the list. So Edge had better rushing years than Marshall Faulk and the other Dickerson years as a Colt (and obviously they are HOFers).Just because JWB wants to summarily dismiss him as not being a worthy candidate doesn't mean the HOF voters automatically will. James had some great years and some great career totals. It's not like he put up Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, or Fred Taylor numbers (1 really good year and 10K career yards but not really outstanding in any other year).
Oh, I am aware. I think Edge will get strong consideration, but fall a bit short. I actually had forgotten how good some of his post-injury seasons were (two 1,500+ rushing yard seasons), so his case is probably better than I thought it would have been before looking at his career numbers.
 

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