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Who will be the 2008 version of the 1999 Stephen Davis? (1 Viewer)

D

Dry H

Footballguy
If you go all the way back to 1999, you see a guy in Stephen Davis who was either a really late round draft pick or possibly not picked at all and then exploded to be a top 5 RB in the league. He was on a team that seemed to turn it around in one season going from 6-10 in 1998 to 10-6 in 1999. He had also been in the league a few years without doing anything.

Here are a few guys that might make that leap:

1. Chris Perry - He's got the opportunity right in front of him. He has the talent to make the jump and more importantly he is finally healthy. He is going very late in drafts currently.

2. Ricky Williams - Once a premier back in the league who has not done anything in a few years. He is now the starter on a team with an upgraded offensive line. The Dolphins also have a lack of a passing attack which means Ricky should get plenty of opportunities.

3. Ray Rice - He is currently the backup in a good rushing offense. Should anything happen to McGahee, Ray Rice could be the guy to jump into the top 10 RB's this year.

 
Dry H said:
3. Ray Rice - He is currently the backup in a good rushing offense. Should anything happen to McGahee, Ray Rice could be the guy to jump into the top 10 RB's this year.
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as far as this year goes, i'm staying away from the Baltimore offense. from what i've been reading, the line is a wreck with both their starting tackles out, and they are implementing a new system.
 
Tanner9919 said:
Ricky Williams.coincidentally, Williams has the same OC as Davis did: Dan Henning
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I do not think this correct, I lookup Henning in the coaching matrix and he was never with the Redskins. Davis was a redskin in 1999 according to wikipedia.ETA: Maybe you were not referring to the 1999 Davis, I apologize if I misunderstood.
 
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Often when something like this happens, it is due to injury (I can't remember whether he beat Skips Hicks outright or if Hicks got injured), but looking at some recent examples (Grant, Gado and Goings...granted not top 5, but putting up top 5 numbers when they were in there), they all have strong O lines...so look at some of the stronger O lines and see what the RB situation looks like. Some of the top O lines as per FBG's Chris Smith as of 8/17 include the Pats, Browns and Bucs...if the starter were to go down (and there is a clear starter on each team), you would be left with Jordan, Wright and Dunn. I don't feel very confident about Wright and Dunn, but do feel that Jordan would excel if given a chance...the problem with this scenario is whether the Pats will run the ball enough to make him a top 5-10 guy and I think the answer is no...could he be a top 10-15 RB? Certainly.

Basically, I think you need a perfect storm in order to find season-long top 5 value out of a 10th round RB...can you get week-by-week or a month or so production out of a guy like that? Sure, but from the beginning of the season, I would think it unlikely.

 
If I remember correctly going into that year S. Davis wasn't the starter, but looked good in his pre-season action. Many discounted it because he was a backup and a lower drafted RB without many exciting measurables or pedigree so figured it was more or less just a flash in the pan.

The player that fits that mold this year is Tim Hightower.

 
offdee said:
If I remember correctly going into that year S. Davis wasn't the starter, but looked good in his pre-season action. Many discounted it because he was a backup and a lower drafted RB without many exciting measurables or pedigree so figured it was more or less just a flash in the pan.The player that fits that mold this year is Tim Hightower.
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Except Davis wasn't backing up a HoF type back. Maybe Hightower will be good someday, but it's tough to imagine him leapfrogging Edge as a rookie.Some breakout RB candidates I like this year:Michael TurnerRay RiceBrandon JacksonChris PerryRicky Williams
 
Before this happened (meaning the Davis breakout season), he was behind Skip Hicks on the depth chart. I'd say Perry is the closest match to Davis. Davis was considered too soft for the RB position if I recall correctly. He was going into his fourth season. Perry is heading into his fifth.

 
In the case of Stephen Davis there was speculation that he would get the start all during the offseason however, so it really was not a suprise when he won the start in TC that year. Perhaps a lot of FF players did not know about it but the information was there.

I am not really seeing a situation similar to this in 2008 at all. Although certainly there are several canidates at RB who could go from next to nothing previously and have a very good season this year.

 
This doesn't really count, as my guy is drafted in all leagues. But I will say: Maurice Jones-Drew. He will be top 5 this year...

Besides him- I don't know who may win the Stephen Davis award this year... possible candidates:

(in order)

1. Chris Perry

2. Maurice Morris (I think he comes out of the group and gets the lion's share)

3. Kevin Jones

4. Ricky Williams (though I think brown factors in and decreases his production)

5. DeAngelo Williams

 
Why all the love for Mo Morris?

Maurice Morris got his chance to carry the load the year SA went down, & he sucked balls. He was an NFL starting RB & not even startable as a bye week replacement. Why will this year be any different?

 
Resident A said:
Why all the love for Mo Morris?Maurice Morris got his chance to carry the load the year SA went down, & he sucked balls. He was an NFL starting RB & not even startable as a bye week replacement. Why will this year be any different?
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Last year down?
 
Dry H said:
If you go all the way back to 1999, you see a guy in Stephen Davis who was either a really late round draft pick or possibly not picked at all and then exploded to be a top 5 RB in the league. He was on a team that seemed to turn it around in one season going from 6-10 in 1998 to 10-6 in 1999. He had also been in the league a few years without doing anything.Here are a few guys that might make that leap:1. Chris Perry - He's got the opportunity right in front of him. He has the talent to make the jump and more importantly he is finally healthy. He is going very late in drafts currently.2. Ricky Williams - Once a premier back in the league who has not done anything in a few years. He is now the starter on a team with an upgraded offensive line. The Dolphins also have a lack of a passing attack which means Ricky should get plenty of opportunities.3. Ray Rice - He is currently the backup in a good rushing offense. Should anything happen to McGahee, Ray Rice could be the guy to jump into the top 10 RB's this year.
Click to expand...
He's not going at the end of the draft... but if there's a guy who could explode like Davis from being a backup previously it's Michael Turner for ATL. Problem is, players like Stephen Davis come along, then people start looking for players like that, and they don't fall to the end of the draft, or go undrafted.
 
IM666 said:
Tanner9919 said:
Ricky Williams.coincidentally, Williams has the same OC as Davis did: Dan Henning
Click to expand...
I do not think this correct, I lookup Henning in the coaching matrix and he was never with the Redskins. Davis was a redskin in 1999 according to wikipedia.ETA: Maybe you were not referring to the 1999 Davis, I apologize if I misunderstood.
Click to expand...
Dan Henning had two stints as an assistant coach with the Redskins, both under Joe Gibbs, and both in the 1980's. In 1999 the OC was Norv Turner, who was also of course head coach, and who was and is known for having good RB production under him. I also agree that Davis, while not a clear cut favorite that preseason over Skip Hicks, had gotten peoples' attention with a phenomenal preseason, and was drafted among the earliest backup RB's in the league. I recall him being drafted before Skip Hicks in my redraft league that year.
 
Stephen Davis benefited from having Norv Turner as his head coach. Norv Turner is well known for having productive RBs. Don't forget Norv got 1300 yards and 21 rushing TDs out of Terry Allen in 1996 with the Redskins. Terry Allen was old at 31 and let go to the Patriots in 99, and Stephen Davis was the recipient.

Right now Norv Turner coaches the Chargers, so my guess is Tomlinson might have a career year.

 
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Another coach to follow is Chan Gailey. It seems whereever Chan Gailey goes, there is a new focus and improvement in the running game. Gailey is the new OC of the Chiefs. They drafted a young RB and some run blockers last April. They are gonna run the ball. Larry Johnson should have a big rebound season.

 
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