Who will win the afc west and why? (1 Viewer)

[chrisanna]

Broncos

Chargers

Chiefs

Raiders

Broncos- hall of fame Qb IMO bad draft added nice pieces in free agency but it all lies on mannings health if he's healthy I see the broncos going 11-5 but I don't see that so I see them failing espns expectations and going 8-8

Chargers-Rivers had a bad year can he recover? Jackson and others gone... Norv turner is still the coach IMO they are done 9-7 at best

Chiefs- they will get moeaki back along with Charles, Eric berry and other important pieces, coaching is suspect

I see them as an 8-10 win team

Raiders- every year they get underestimated and even though they aren't the laughing stock of the nfl anymore they still get jokes cracked about them here and there, they are the most hated team in all the nfl!

But I think people are really underestimating the talent they have...

I see Palmer having a bounce back year something like 3,800-4,100 yds 25 yds 15 int, their defense looks to be improved with the solid additions through free agency the offensive line should be better and they did pretty good in the draft value wise with the limited picks they had. THE MAIN REASON WHY OAKLAND WILL WIN OR LOSE THE DIVISION WILL BE ALL ON THE SHOULDERS OF DARREN MCFADDEN! If he's healthy and plays like he did like he did the last 2 years without injures I see him having a 1,700 13 td's 500 Rec yds 5 td's! His health is key for Oakland that and the emergence and continuous progress of DHB,Moore, and Ford...

Final prediction I think Oakland wins the division with a 10-6 or 11-5 record

 

[Dragon1952]

I'm a Charger fan, but I think these 4 teams are about as evenly matched as they've been in a long time. They all have a lot of talent, but they all also have some very large question marks. I'm going to pick Denver at 10-6. They made the playoffs last year and are even better this year. Chargers and Oakland finish at 9-7 and 8-8, respectively with KC at 7-9.

 

[DerekR]

Chiefs because I'm from kc. But really it's hard to judge this year. If I had to pick a team I would go with the chargers.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

SD

 

[Shutout]

Chiefs or Chargers wouldn't surprise me.

Raiders..I'm just in the camp of I've got to see it to believe it. Too many questions. Can DMAC stay healthy? Will Palmer continue to get back to form when he was really good? Can anyone besides Moore catch a ball? Will McClain be suspended?

Broncos-Once the hype dissipates around Manning, the reality is that when he was completely healthy and with the colts on a team that was as finely tuned and prepared as it could be for several years, they still struggled to get 12 wins the past few years, so its a stretch fro me to think they will win 11 now. So, just by default, I kind of see them at 9-10 and that shoudln't be enough to win a division outright.

 

[Slapdash]

I think the Chiefs will win because the rest of their team is good enough to overcome Cassell being the QB.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I think the Chiefs will win because the rest of their team is good enough to overcome Cassell being the QB.

Not be a smart ### contrarian, but I believe they are the darkhorse BECAUSE they don't have a franchise QB. Denver, Oakland, San Diego all have franchise QB's. I like the OP's take and have high optimism for them, but they absolutely need both DMC and Carson Palmer to be healthy to have a shot. They just don't have any margin of error. Denver for obvious reasons is the consensus favorite with PM and crew. I concede they should be the frontrunner, but there is a lot of unknowns to that team. Basically, I think the entire division is wide open.

 

[Late225]

Denver - and its not close. They won the division with Tebow last year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Denver

 

[doowain]

Chiefs or Chargers wouldn't surprise me.Raiders..I'm just in the camp of I've got to see it to believe it. Too many questions. Can DMAC stay healthy? Will Palmer continue to get back to form when he was really good? Can anyone besides Moore catch a ball? Will McClain be suspended?Broncos-Once the hype dissipates around Manning, the reality is that when he was completely healthy and with the colts on a team that was as finely tuned and prepared as it could be for several years, they still struggled to get 12 wins the past few years, so its a stretch fro me to think they will win 11 now. So, just by default, I kind of see them at 9-10 and that shoudln't be enough to win a division outright.

I agree with your take on all teams, but disagree to an extent with your assessment of the Broncos for one reason. The defense. That's the key factor here in the difference between Peyton's Colts the last few years (and really since he'd been there) and Peyton's Broncos.

 

[Shutout]

Chiefs or Chargers wouldn't surprise me.Raiders..I'm just in the camp of I've got to see it to believe it. Too many questions. Can DMAC stay healthy? Will Palmer continue to get back to form when he was really good? Can anyone besides Moore catch a ball? Will McClain be suspended?Broncos-Once the hype dissipates around Manning, the reality is that when he was completely healthy and with the colts on a team that was as finely tuned and prepared as it could be for several years, they still struggled to get 12 wins the past few years, so its a stretch fro me to think they will win 11 now. So, just by default, I kind of see them at 9-10 and that shoudln't be enough to win a division outright.

I agree with your take on all teams, but disagree to an extent with your assessment of the Broncos for one reason. The defense. That's the key factor here in the difference between Peyton's Colts the last few years (and really since he'd been there) and Peyton's Broncos.

That's a good point. It will make a difference. I had glossed over that.

 

[spodog]

. . but I think these 4 teams are about as evenly matched as they've been in a long time.

Agree with this. Very evenly matched. Their schedules are identical except for two games, so it may come down to who those opponents are. The Broncos have arguably a very difficult schedule and easily the hardest schedule of these four teams, opening up against the Steelers in Week 1 and having to travel to New England in Week 5. Broncos go 7-9.San Diego will dig themselves a hole at the beginning of the year, as always, but this year may be the year that they actually dig out of it, with 4 of their last 5 games against the Bengals, Panthers, Jets and Raiders. The two distinct games on their schedule relative to the others are home vs Titans and at the Jets in Week 16. They should win both of these, as Jets will have imploded around a Tebow/Sanchez controversy by Week 16. Chargers 9-7Raiders have the easiest schedule in the AFC West with two freebies as their two games, Dolphins and Jags. Too much turmoil, too much new direction to really see them pulling this out, however. Raiders go 8-8Chiefs have the Bills on the road and Colts at home as their two distinguishing games. If they can split their 2 games with the Broncos, they can finish 9-7. KC 9-7SD 9-7OAK 8-8DEN 7-9The Chargers manage to blow all 3 of their division games before mid October, so the Chiefs take the Division based upon a better Division record.

 

[Tau837]

What team will win? Chargers

Why? Rivers

 

[IHEARTFF]

The Chiefs will. They have the best all around team. They won 2 years ago and were 1 fg away from making it again last year without Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, or Tony Moeaki. Those 3 should be healthy, they added an all pro RT in Eric Winston to replace a huge hole, and they added depth at RB and other positions. Jonathan Baldwin should be better in year 2. My money is on KC.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

The Chiefs will. They have the best all around team. They won 2 years ago and were 1 fg away from making it again last year without Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, or Tony Moeaki. Those 3 should be healthy, they added an all pro RT in Eric Winston to replace a huge hole, and they added depth at RB and other positions. Jonathan Baldwin should be better in year 2. My money is on KC.

I'm pretty excited about KC this year, but for another reason. That defense could be scary good. The DL is Glenn Dorsey, Dontari Poe, Tyson Jackson...all talented high draft picks. Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston, Jovan Belcher at the 4 LB spots. Brandon Flowers, Javier Arenas, Stanford Routt, Eric Berry, Donald Washington in the secondary. The OL added Eric Winston, Jeff Allen, and Donald Stevenson this offseason. Rodney Hudson is ready to take over at C, Brandon Albert can hopefully move inside to Guard to battle with Ryan Lilja/ Jon Asamoah.Bowe and Baldwin on the outside with Breaston/McCluster/Wylie/Hemmingway rotating inside.Charles back healthy with Hillis and Cyrus Gray...good combination.

 

[doowain]

The Chiefs will. They have the best all around team. They won 2 years ago and were 1 fg away from making it again last year without Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, or Tony Moeaki. Those 3 should be healthy, they added an all pro RT in Eric Winston to replace a huge hole, and they added depth at RB and other positions. Jonathan Baldwin should be better in year 2. My money is on KC.

I'm pretty excited about KC this year, but for another reason. That defense could be scary good. The DL is Glenn Dorsey, Dontari Poe, Tyson Jackson...all talented high draft picks. Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston, Jovan Belcher at the 4 LB spots. Brandon Flowers, Javier Arenas, Stanford Routt, Eric Berry, Donald Washington in the secondary. The OL added Eric Winston, Jeff Allen, and Donald Stevenson this offseason. Rodney Hudson is ready to take over at C, Brandon Albert can hopefully move inside to Guard to battle with Ryan Lilja/ Jon Asamoah.Bowe and Baldwin on the outside with Breaston/McCluster/Wylie/Hemmingway rotating inside.Charles back healthy with Hillis and Cyrus Gray...good combination.

Two huge factors you are missing. One good and one bad.Good - Haley is gone.Bad - Matt Cassell is not.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

The Chiefs will. They have the best all around team. They won 2 years ago and were 1 fg away from making it again last year without Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, or Tony Moeaki. Those 3 should be healthy, they added an all pro RT in Eric Winston to replace a huge hole, and they added depth at RB and other positions. Jonathan Baldwin should be better in year 2. My money is on KC.

I'm pretty excited about KC this year, but for another reason. That defense could be scary good. The DL is Glenn Dorsey, Dontari Poe, Tyson Jackson...all talented high draft picks. Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston, Jovan Belcher at the 4 LB spots. Brandon Flowers, Javier Arenas, Stanford Routt, Eric Berry, Donald Washington in the secondary. The OL added Eric Winston, Jeff Allen, and Donald Stevenson this offseason. Rodney Hudson is ready to take over at C, Brandon Albert can hopefully move inside to Guard to battle with Ryan Lilja/ Jon Asamoah.Bowe and Baldwin on the outside with Breaston/McCluster/Wylie/Hemmingway rotating inside.Charles back healthy with Hillis and Cyrus Gray...good combination.

Two huge factors you are missing. One good and one bad.Good - Haley is gone.Bad - Matt Cassell is not.

Defense isn't affected by Haley/CasselCassel isn't going to be a stud...but in 2010 his TD/INT ratio was 27/7. So it's possible for him to not be bad. I think people have the playoff game vs Baltimore stuck in their heads...Baltimore makes Tom Brady look unimpressive.Cassel will be better with more/experienced weapons + improved OL + Peyton Hillis is much better than Thomas Jones.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

i might be the only person in the nation who doesn't buy what Manning is selling. He spent a year away from football, he still has nerve damage, his arm strength is reportedly been deteriorating for several seasons... are we all so confident he will make it through this season in one piece?

 

[Mainevent]

What team will win? ChargersWhy? Rivers

What happened the past 2 years? Did they not have Rivers...If anything their window is closing, they lost Sproles and VJax on offense over the last 2 yrs, and have an aging Gates who has a high probability of not being able to play 16. KC is the most balanced team, young defense, offensive play makers/game breakers, and run game that will ease the pressure off of Cassell if Charles is healthy.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

San Diego will dig themselves a hole at the beginning of the year, as always, but this year may be the year that they actually dig out of it, with 4 of their last 5 games against the Bengals, Panthers, Jets and Raiders. The two distinct games on their schedule relative to the others are home vs Titans and at the Jets in Week 16. They should win both of these, as Jets will have imploded around a Tebow/Sanchez controversy by Week 16.

it's a night game, which helps but it's still an east coast swing and it's gonna be cold. I don't care if Sanchez is benched and Tebow is running the wildcat full time, this game is far from a slam dunk for the Chargers.

 

[Tickle Monster]

I'll go with the team that is being built by Scott Pioli.

 

[Riversco]

The Raiders would the the only team that shocks me because the new ownership just blew up the coaching staff and brought in new coaches with new systems. That means bringing in their own guys. They are rebuilding again. I think they have a terrible year.

 

[Riversco]

Chargers brought in former Broncos WR Eddie Royal to help out Rivers. He will be the safety valve Sproles was. I think its an underrated piece because he played very well the last time he had a decent QB in Denver (Cutler).

 

[Riversco]

The new Raiders ownership is probably going to be atrocious. The Raiders seemed actually pointed in the right direction. And they just blew it up. That was bizarre.

 

[ICON211]

Raiders have the easiest schedule in the AFC West with two freebies as their two games, Dolphins and Jags. Too much turmoil, too much new direction to really see them pulling this out, however. Raiders go 8-8

Disagree about the Raiders having the easiest schedule. I think they have the hardest schedule of the four when you factor in that they have five 1 o'clock Eastern games. That might be the most for a west coast team in the history of the league. The Raiders also lost some good players and did not add much. Depth could be a big issue as well. I hope I am wrong, but I am not that optimistic about the Raiders this year.

 

[Tau837]

What team will win? ChargersWhy? Rivers

What happened the past 2 years? Did they not have Rivers...

Two things happened in 2010: the Chargers' special teams were historically bad and cost them multiple games, and the Chargers had a huge number of injuries. Yet they missed the playoffs by one game.In 2011, Rivers didn't play well for the first two thirds of the season. The Chargers had 5 losses by one score or less during that span, including two OT losses. In those 5 losses, Rivers had 10 turnovers. And one in particular cost them the playoffs. He fumbled the snap in a tie game with KC with the Chargers at the KC 15 with 48 seconds left. If not for that fumble, they win that game and the division.Rivers finished 2011 strong. Compare his performance in the first 11 games vs. the last 5 games:First 11 games: 256/419 (61.1%), 3211 passing yards (7.7 ypa), 16 passing TDs, 17 interceptions, 4-7 recordLast 5 games: 110/163 (67.5%), 1413 passing yards (8.7 ypa), 11 passing TDs, 3 interceptions, 4-1 recordI think he will play 2012 more like he played the last 5 games than the first 11 games (and more like he played 2008 to 2010). Assuming the special teams don't revert to 2010 level and they don't have a major rash of key injuries, that should be enough.

 

[Tau837]

Chargers brought in former Broncos WR Eddie Royal to help out Rivers. He will be the safety valve Sproles was. I think its an underrated piece because he played very well the last time he had a decent QB in Denver (Cutler).

I disagree. I doubt Royal gets even 40 targets unless there are multiple injuries ahead of him. He will be the 6th option in the offense to open the season, behind Gates, Mathews, Meachem, Floyd, and Brown.Royal had 91 receptions his first season, but he didn't even break 1000 yards and had only 5 TDs. Something often overlooked about that season is that Cutler attempted 616 passes, which is one reason Royal's reception numbers were high.

 

[GregR]

I think last year's standings reflect pretty well where the teams are on talent, the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders are all pretty well bunched together and the Chiefs are just a short step behind mainly because of quarterback.

I agree it's a pretty evenly matched division. Those 2 games difference in schedule could end up being a big deal. I think I'm going to go with the Raiders if I have to pick one team to win it. I thought they were the best team in the division before McFadden was hurt. If he manages to stay healthy, yeah, I'd go with Oakland.

 

[Shutout]

i might be the only person in the nation who doesn't buy what Manning is selling. He spent a year away from football, he still has nerve damage, his arm strength is reportedly been deteriorating for several seasons... are we all so confident he will make it through this season in one piece?

You are not alone. My wife is the other. She works in the field and called it at the end of 2010, watching him play, she was saying he had a serious issue. She says he will never be the Manning of old again (not talking FF stats at the end of the day, just saying she says he wont' throw the same, etc..).I hope the two of you are wrong because I like manning and it will be hard to live with her if he comes back and becomes a QB15.

 

[cstu]

What team will win? ChargersWhy? Rivers

What happened the past 2 years? Did they not have Rivers...

Two things happened in 2010: the Chargers' special teams were historically bad and cost them multiple games, and the Chargers had a huge number of injuries. Yet they missed the playoffs by one game.In 2011, Rivers didn't play well for the first two thirds of the season. The Chargers had 5 losses by one score or less during that span, including two OT losses. In those 5 losses, Rivers had 10 turnovers. And one in particular cost them the playoffs. He fumbled the snap in a tie game with KC with the Chargers at the KC 15 with 48 seconds left. If not for that fumble, they win that game and the division.Rivers finished 2011 strong. Compare his performance in the first 11 games vs. the last 5 games:First 11 games: 256/419 (61.1%), 3211 passing yards (7.7 ypa), 16 passing TDs, 17 interceptions, 4-7 recordLast 5 games: 110/163 (67.5%), 1413 passing yards (8.7 ypa), 11 passing TDs, 3 interceptions, 4-1 recordI think he will play 2012 more like he played the last 5 games than the first 11 games (and more like he played 2008 to 2010). Assuming the special teams don't revert to 2010 level and they don't have a major rash of key injuries, that should be enough.

Far more than Rivers, the defense was the big problem last year. Ingram might not start but he will make a huge impact in a OLB rotation with Jarret Johnson, Phillips and Barnes. Kendall Reyes should also help at DE. My biggest concern now is at CB, but if they can get better pressure up front it will make both Jammer and Cason's job much easier.

 

[az_prof]

I agree that these teams are evenly matched and any of them could win it. That being said, I think Denver will crash and burn and the Manning experiment will fail. I am not a believer in Oakland because I don't think Palmer is very good and I don't think their D is very good and so basicly, their season depends on the health of McFadden. If he stays healthy for 16 games, I think Oakland wins it. But of course I don't think that that is very likely. And for KC, I think they are still too young and have too many holes to fill. In the draft they focused on rebuilding the offensive and defensive line and I think that is smart, but it is not likely to pay dividends in 2012.

My pick is San Diego. People don't like Norv but he has won a lot of division championships. Rivers will rebound. I like the additions of Meachem and Royal. Gates is reportedly healthy again, finally. At the end of the day, I think Rivers is the best QB in the division--yes, even including the aged Manning. And that will be the difference.

 

[az_prof]

i might be the only person in the nation who doesn't buy what Manning is selling. He spent a year away from football, he still has nerve damage, his arm strength is reportedly been deteriorating for several seasons... are we all so confident he will make it through this season in one piece?

You are not alone. My wife is the other. She works in the field and called it at the end of 2010, watching him play, she was saying he had a serious issue. She says he will never be the Manning of old again (not talking FF stats at the end of the day, just saying she says he wont' throw the same, etc..).I hope the two of you are wrong because I like manning and it will be hard to live with her if he comes back and becomes a QB15.

This is EXACTLY how I see it! Unlike you, I am looking forward to seeing him fail because he has always seemed like a smug guy to me. I never liked him. And I am looking forward to seeing Elway's smug face when Manning starts to suck. It will be so fun to watch him squirm and try to explain why he traded away Tebow and to explain how much better the team is losing this season than it was winning last season with Tebow.

 

[Tau837]

What team will win? ChargersWhy? Rivers

What happened the past 2 years? Did they not have Rivers...

Two things happened in 2010: the Chargers' special teams were historically bad and cost them multiple games, and the Chargers had a huge number of injuries. Yet they missed the playoffs by one game.In 2011, Rivers didn't play well for the first two thirds of the season. The Chargers had 5 losses by one score or less during that span, including two OT losses. In those 5 losses, Rivers had 10 turnovers. And one in particular cost them the playoffs. He fumbled the snap in a tie game with KC with the Chargers at the KC 15 with 48 seconds left. If not for that fumble, they win that game and the division.Rivers finished 2011 strong. Compare his performance in the first 11 games vs. the last 5 games:First 11 games: 256/419 (61.1%), 3211 passing yards (7.7 ypa), 16 passing TDs, 17 interceptions, 4-7 recordLast 5 games: 110/163 (67.5%), 1413 passing yards (8.7 ypa), 11 passing TDs, 3 interceptions, 4-1 recordI think he will play 2012 more like he played the last 5 games than the first 11 games (and more like he played 2008 to 2010). Assuming the special teams don't revert to 2010 level and they don't have a major rash of key injuries, that should be enough.

Far more than Rivers, the defense was the big problem last year. Ingram might not start but he will make a huge impact in a OLB rotation with Jarret Johnson, Phillips and Barnes. Kendall Reyes should also help at DE. My biggest concern now is at CB, but if they can get better pressure up front it will make both Jammer and Cason's job much easier.

Yes, I agree the defense should be improved, and it wasn't good last year. But had Rivers played at his typical level in the first 11 weeks, the Chargers would have made the playoffs with that defense.

 

[Tau837]

i might be the only person in the nation who doesn't buy what Manning is selling. He spent a year away from football, he still has nerve damage, his arm strength is reportedly been deteriorating for several seasons... are we all so confident he will make it through this season in one piece?

You are not alone. My wife is the other. She works in the field and called it at the end of 2010, watching him play, she was saying he had a serious issue. She says he will never be the Manning of old again (not talking FF stats at the end of the day, just saying she says he wont' throw the same, etc..).I hope the two of you are wrong because I like manning and it will be hard to live with her if he comes back and becomes a QB15.

I'm not a believer in Manning returning to his past form. I've posted on it in other threads in recent months. He has a new franchise, new coaching staff, new teammates, new offense, new home field (where he will play outdoors and in the cold), new place to live, he is 36, he hasn't played for more than a year, and he is coming off multiple surgeries for a major problem.I believe his fusion is solid enough that he isn't necessarily at any greater risk for being injured than a typical QB. But it isn't clear that the nerves will ever be fully regenerated such that he will have the same ability to throw (accuracy, touch, velocity).I have a lot of respect for Manning, and I hope he is able to play respectably and leave the game when he is ready. But I don't think "play respectably" equates to his past performance, which seems to be what the masses are expecting.

 

[Pots]

1) Broncos 10-6

2) Chargers 8-8

3) Raiders 7-9

4) Chiefs 5-11

 

[RBM]

Broncos or Chiefs.

If Charles and Berry play at a high level all season, then it will be KC

 

[BoltBacker]

Raiders- every year they get underestimated and even though they aren't the laughing stock of the nfl anymore they still get jokes cracked about them here and there, they are the most hated team in all the nfl!

oak - If you can't finish above .500 for about a decade I guess you get "underestimated" every year. In fact, the last time the raiders finished above .500 their fans were celebrating the fact they had hired Callahan. That was half a dozen coaches or so ago. The new GM is moving things in the right direction and should have a stabilizing influence on the franchise but right now their entire season hinges on two players: a QB that hasn't finished with a QB rating above the 80's since 2006 and a RB that has averaged ~138 carries a season.den - I'm kind of surprised to see so many people in this thread are as skeptical as myself with regard to Manning. Even if you just throw all the health issues out the window, how many HOF QB's that change teams in their mid/late 30's end up being successful with their new team? Add to that he's replacing a guy that took a cellar dwelling team to a 64% winning percentage and a playoff victory. It's going to be difficult for Manning to improve upon that with the offensive weapons he has in den imo. If he can't improve upon that will the cult of Tebow be happy about the change? Elway may straddle the line between legend and demigod in the state of CO but even he may take some heat if this experiment blows up in his face.SD - They didn't win the division last year because they were terrible in the trenches. They added Reyes. I don't think he alone fixes the mess in the trenches so imo SD is still a .500 team. If Gaither gets hurt SD has the worst line in the NFL, if he stays healthy they have one of the worst. People wring their hands about the loss of WR and 3rd down backs but if Rivers is forced into as many mistakes as he was last year due to the poor OL then they don't have much of a chance to win the division even if he had HOF receivers.KC - I'm also surprised so many people in this thread are giving so much credit to KC! I think they should definitely be favorite in the division. If there had been an 18 game season last year, they would have won the division. They had the best defense in the division and get back a pro-bowl DB and add a first round DLman. On offense they should be dramatically better in every phase. The OL is much improved through FA and the draft. The RB's should be a night and day difference from last year with Charles/Hillis one of the strongest 1-2 combos in the league. The passing game should be much improved simply because Cassel should play more than half the season. Baldwin had a nightmare rookie season and couldn't possibly be any less productive. Moeaki will be another shot in the arm of the passing game.

 

[Chris S]

If Peyton is healthy (IF), Den should win the division. He's that good.

If not, I would guess KC. They had several key injuries (Charles, Berry, Moeki) and still had an okay season. With those players back and adding pieces like Hillis, they should have a great chance.

As far as QBs switching teams in their mid 30s, yeah, that's pretty accurate. I can think of a couple guys who had some success (but not near where they were) Moon (Sea), Montana (KC), Gannon (OAK). Gannon probably had the best numbers of those 3. But, I do agree with your point.

 

[Tau837]

If Peyton is healthy (IF), Den should win the division. He's that good. If not, I would guess KC. They had several key injuries (Charles, Berry, Moeki) and still had an okay season. With those players back and adding pieces like Hillis, they should have a great chance. As far as QBs switching teams in their mid 30s, yeah, that's pretty accurate. I can think of a couple guys who had some success (but not near where they were) Moon (Sea), Montana (KC), Gannon (OAK). Gannon probably had the best numbers of those 3. But, I do agree with your point.

LOL at saying Moon had "some" success. He moved from HOU to MIN at age 38 and had back to back seasons with more than 4200 passing yards, along with a total of 49 passing TDs. Then he moved to SEA at age 41 and had 3678 passing yards and 25 TDs. He was in the top 5 in passing yards and passing yards per game and in the top 10 in passing TDs in all three of those seasons.

 

[jurb26]

I agree with those supporting KC. To me, KC is easily the most talented team in the division. I know many see it as a pretty even split between the 4 teams but I don't. KC nearly won this division last year and they did so w/o having their best 3 players on the field all season long. If Cassell was not the QB I'd probably pick KC as a SB favorite. None the less, I think this team is too good to not win their division and get into the playoffs despite Cassell. They addressed the most pressing needs they had on the Oline. They added depth to their backfield. Their D is already strong and Poe is a nice gamble for them to take.

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

The Oakland Raiders will shock evryone and win the AFC West. Why? Darren McFadden will be fully recovered and have a monster year. Palmer will have a year under his belt, play smarter and have better production. The plethora of WR's they had that couldn't stay healthy last year will this year and Plamer will find the. The defense won't be spectacular and may even give up points making the offense have to respond with points of their own to win games. I can see them winning numerous games late this year.Denarious Moore is going to have a fine year and even rookie Juron gets some attention. Welcome your 2012 AFC Champs, the Oakland Raiders.

 

[Synesthesia]

den - I'm kind of surprised to see so many people in this thread are as skeptical as myself with regard to Manning. Even if you just throw all the health issues out the window, how many HOF QB's that change teams in their mid/late 30's end up being successful with their new team?

That's a misleading question. How many HoF QBs change teams in their mid/late 30's? How many of those QBs changing teams sign contracts for $18 million a year, and are called the biggest free agent in history? There's not a lot of precedent for highly coveted HoF QBs switching teams. With that said, I can still take a shot at answering. There are 26 QBs currently enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Of those 26, 14 spent their entire career with a single franchise, leaving us with 12 QBs who switched teams at least once during their career. Of the 12 team-switchers, two of them (Steve Young and Len Dawson) switched in their 20s (and made no subsequent switches in their 30s), and are therefore not applicable. A third (Sonny Jurgenson) made the switch in his age 30 season, and is likewise probably too young for consideration (in case anyone cares, he made 1 pro bowl in 7 seasons in Philly, then switched at age 30 and made 4 pro bowls in 11 seasons in Washington). Here is a brief breakdown of the 9 remaining QBs, sorted alphabetically:
[*]George Blanda- Played 10 years for the Chicago Bears, then switched to the Houston Oilers prior to his age 33 season. Played 7 years for the Oilers, then switched to the Oakland Raiders prior to his age 40 season. Never made a pro bowl for Chicago, then made 3 (including one 1st team AP All Pro) for Houston, including 2 seasons where he led the league in passing yards, 3 seasons where he led the league in attempts and completions, and 4 seasons where he led the league in INTs. His Oakland career is largely irrelevant for this discussion, since by that point he was really just a kicker. He did make a pro bowl in Oakland in a season where he led the league in FG%, XPA, and XPs, for whatever that's worth. Clearly successful after his switch.

[*]Bobby Layne- He's the only real pre-modern QB on this list, but I figured I might as well break him down, anyway. After 11 years with Detroit, Chicago, and the New York Bulldogs, Layne joined the Pittsburgh Steelers in the middle of his age 32 season. He made 4 pro bowls in 11 years prior to switching, and 1 pro bowl in 4 years after switching. I honestly have no idea whether he should be considered successful or not, since the NFL was a completely different animal back then (Layne once was named 1st team AP All Pro in a season where he threw for 1900 yards, 9 TDs, and 17 INTs). Oh yeah, he also kicked field goals for the Steelers for two seasons.

[*]Joe Montana- played 13 years for 49ers, then switched to KC prior to his age 37 season and played 2 more years. 7 pro bowls and 2 1st team AP All Pros prior to the switch, 1 pro bowl after the switch. Ranked 5th in the league and 8th in the league in passer rating in his two seasons in Kansas City. Despite missing 7 games in those two seasons, and despite not being nearly as dynamic as he was in San Fran, I would say his pro bowl and his efficiency were enough to earn his Kansas City stint the "successful" label.

[*]Warren Moon- Played 10 years for HOU, then switched at age 38 and played 3 years for MIN, then switched at age 40 and played 2 years for SEA, then switched (yes, again) at age 42 and played 2 years for KAN. Had 6 pro bowls in 10 years in HOU, 2 pro bowls in 3 years in MIN, 1 pro bowl in 2 years in SEA, and no pro bowls in KC. Had two 4,000 yard seasons in Minnesota, and a 3600 yard season in SEA. Given the production and accolades, I would say that Warren Moon was successful in MIN and SEA, but not in KC.

[*]Joe Namath- Played 12 years for the New York Jets, and 4 games for the Rams at age 34. Not even worth breaking it down- Namath with the Rams would not meet any possible definition of "successful".

[*]Fran Tarkenton- After 11 years with the Vikings and Giants, he switched back to the Vikings prior to his age 32 season. After putting up 6 pro bowls (and no 1st team AP All Pros) in his first 11 seasons, he proceeded to put up 3 more pro bowls (and his lone 1st team AP All Pro) in his last 7 seasons with the Vikings. For good measure, he also posted all three of his SB appearances in that span.

[*]Y.A. Tittle- After 13 years with the Colts and 49ers, Tittle switched to the Giants before his age 35 season. After making 4 pro bowls and 1 first team AP All Pro in 13 years, Tittle finished his career making 3 pro bowls and 2 first team AP All Pros in his final 4 seasons after the switch. In fact, all of his post-switch stats dwarf his pre-switch stats- 50 more yards per game, .7 more yards per attempt, 50% higher TD%, 20% lower INT%, and a QB rating 15 points higher. Huge success.

[*]Johnny Unitas- 17 years with the Colts, 5 games with the Chargers at age 40. Like Namath, there's no sense in diving any deeper than that. Not a success.

[*]Norm Van Brocklin- After 9 years with the Rams, Van Brocklin switched to the Eagles prior to his age 32 season. Made 6 pro bowls in 9 years with the Rams, made 3 pro bowls in 3 years with the Eagles, ending his career with his only 1st team AP All Pro season. Successful.

In short, 6 of the 9 HoF QBs to switch teams in their 30s were successful with their new team, 2 of the 9 were unsuccessful, and 1 of the 9 was Bobby Layne. One of the 9 (Moon) even managed to be successful for his new team TWICE in his late 30s. 6 of the 9 QBs (Blanda, Montana, Moon, Tarkenton, Tittle, Unitas) managed to play at least through their age 38 season (which would represent 3 more years for Manning).

If you want to expand this analysis even further, you could easily include likely future Hall of Famers such as Kurt Warner (joined Arizona at 34) and Brett Favre (made a pro bowl with the Jets at 39 and the Vikings at 40), bringing the future HoFers to an 80% post-switch success rate.

Of course, even this analysis is skewed, because several of these QBs would not be HoFers if not for their post-switch performance, meaning they aren't perfect comps for Peyton Manning (who will be a first ballot HoFer even if he never attempts another pass). Which should just reinforce that there's not a whole lot of precedent for what Peyton Manning is doing right now. What little precedent there is, however, is largely positive, even if guys like Namath and Unitas are typically the first ones that come to mind when we think of HoFers switching teams.

 

[Tau837]

den - I'm kind of surprised to see so many people in this thread are as skeptical as myself with regard to Manning. Even if you just throw all the health issues out the window, how many HOF QB's that change teams in their mid/late 30's end up being successful with their new team?

That's a misleading question. How many HoF QBs change teams in their mid/late 30's? How many of those QBs changing teams sign contracts for $18 million a year, and are called the biggest free agent in history? There's not a lot of precedent for highly coveted HoF QBs switching teams. With that said, I can still take a shot at answering. There are 26 QBs currently enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Of those 26, 14 spent their entire career with a single franchise, leaving us with 12 QBs who switched teams at least once during their career. Of the 12 team-switchers, two of them (Steve Young and Len Dawson) switched in their 20s (and made no subsequent switches in their 30s), and are therefore not applicable. A third (Sonny Jurgenson) made the switch in his age 30 season, and is likewise probably too young for consideration (in case anyone cares, he made 1 pro bowl in 7 seasons in Philly, then switched at age 30 and made 4 pro bowls in 11 seasons in Washington). Here is a brief breakdown of the 9 remaining QBs, sorted alphabetically:
[*]George Blanda- Played 10 years for the Chicago Bears, then switched to the Houston Oilers prior to his age 33 season. Played 7 years for the Oilers, then switched to the Oakland Raiders prior to his age 40 season. Never made a pro bowl for Chicago, then made 3 (including one 1st team AP All Pro) for Houston, including 2 seasons where he led the league in passing yards, 3 seasons where he led the league in attempts and completions, and 4 seasons where he led the league in INTs. His Oakland career is largely irrelevant for this discussion, since by that point he was really just a kicker. He did make a pro bowl in Oakland in a season where he led the league in FG%, XPA, and XPs, for whatever that's worth. Clearly successful after his switch.

[*]Bobby Layne- He's the only real pre-modern QB on this list, but I figured I might as well break him down, anyway. After 11 years with Detroit, Chicago, and the New York Bulldogs, Layne joined the Pittsburgh Steelers in the middle of his age 32 season. He made 4 pro bowls in 11 years prior to switching, and 1 pro bowl in 4 years after switching. I honestly have no idea whether he should be considered successful or not, since the NFL was a completely different animal back then (Layne once was named 1st team AP All Pro in a season where he threw for 1900 yards, 9 TDs, and 17 INTs). Oh yeah, he also kicked field goals for the Steelers for two seasons.

[*]Joe Montana- played 13 years for 49ers, then switched to KC prior to his age 37 season and played 2 more years. 7 pro bowls and 2 1st team AP All Pros prior to the switch, 1 pro bowl after the switch. Ranked 5th in the league and 8th in the league in passer rating in his two seasons in Kansas City. Despite missing 7 games in those two seasons, and despite not being nearly as dynamic as he was in San Fran, I would say his pro bowl and his efficiency were enough to earn his Kansas City stint the "successful" label.

[*]Warren Moon- Played 10 years for HOU, then switched at age 38 and played 3 years for MIN, then switched at age 40 and played 2 years for SEA, then switched (yes, again) at age 42 and played 2 years for KAN. Had 6 pro bowls in 10 years in HOU, 2 pro bowls in 3 years in MIN, 1 pro bowl in 2 years in SEA, and no pro bowls in KC. Had two 4,000 yard seasons in Minnesota, and a 3600 yard season in SEA. Given the production and accolades, I would say that Warren Moon was successful in MIN and SEA, but not in KC.

[*]Joe Namath- Played 12 years for the New York Jets, and 4 games for the Rams at age 34. Not even worth breaking it down- Namath with the Rams would not meet any possible definition of "successful".

[*]Fran Tarkenton- After 11 years with the Vikings and Giants, he switched back to the Vikings prior to his age 32 season. After putting up 6 pro bowls (and no 1st team AP All Pros) in his first 11 seasons, he proceeded to put up 3 more pro bowls (and his lone 1st team AP All Pro) in his last 7 seasons with the Vikings. For good measure, he also posted all three of his SB appearances in that span.

[*]Y.A. Tittle- After 13 years with the Colts and 49ers, Tittle switched to the Giants before his age 35 season. After making 4 pro bowls and 1 first team AP All Pro in 13 years, Tittle finished his career making 3 pro bowls and 2 first team AP All Pros in his final 4 seasons after the switch. In fact, all of his post-switch stats dwarf his pre-switch stats- 50 more yards per game, .7 more yards per attempt, 50% higher TD%, 20% lower INT%, and a QB rating 15 points higher. Huge success.

[*]Johnny Unitas- 17 years with the Colts, 5 games with the Chargers at age 40. Like Namath, there's no sense in diving any deeper than that. Not a success.

[*]Norm Van Brocklin- After 9 years with the Rams, Van Brocklin switched to the Eagles prior to his age 32 season. Made 6 pro bowls in 9 years with the Rams, made 3 pro bowls in 3 years with the Eagles, ending his career with his only 1st team AP All Pro season. Successful.

In short, 6 of the 9 HoF QBs to switch teams in their 30s were successful with their new team, 2 of the 9 were unsuccessful, and 1 of the 9 was Bobby Layne. One of the 9 (Moon) even managed to be successful for his new team TWICE in his late 30s. 6 of the 9 QBs (Blanda, Montana, Moon, Tarkenton, Tittle, Unitas) managed to play at least through their age 38 season (which would represent 3 more years for Manning).

If you want to expand this analysis even further, you could easily include likely future Hall of Famers such as Kurt Warner (joined Arizona at 34) and Brett Favre (made a pro bowl with the Jets at 39 and the Vikings at 40), bringing the future HoFers to an 80% post-switch success rate.

Of course, even this analysis is skewed, because several of these QBs would not be HoFers if not for their post-switch performance, meaning they aren't perfect comps for Peyton Manning (who will be a first ballot HoFer even if he never attempts another pass). Which should just reinforce that there's not a whole lot of precedent for what Peyton Manning is doing right now. What little precedent there is, however, is largely positive, even if guys like Namath and Unitas are typically the first ones that come to mind when we think of HoFers switching teams.

 

[whatadai]

The Raiders will take it if...

...they stay healthy. Which they won't...

 

[chook]

Who: Denver.

Why: Manning.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Denver.

 

[Raider Nation]

The new Raiders ownership is probably going to be atrocious. The Raiders seemed actually pointed in the right direction. And they just blew it up. That was bizarre.

WTH is this guy talking about?

 

[Lash]

Who ... Denver

Why ... Peyton

 

[hutchins929]

This could finish a lot different, but I just thought this would be cool.

My scenario has Denver in dead last amongst the division, going into week 16. However, they win out the final two games and the rest of the division does a crappy job of closing the door on them. They tie it all up after week 17. And with Denver having the best head to head and divisional record, they win the tie breaker and the AFC West title.

Broncos 8-8 (4-2)

Chargers 8-8 (3-3)

Raiders 8-8 (3-3)

Chiefs 8-8 (2-4)

Denver Broncos

Denver has a really tough schedule so I think that will hurt. However, the leadership that Manning brings will help them to bounce back. I think if the schedule wasn't so bad early on, they might win this thing outright. They are, in my opinion, the best team in the division. I have them winning the majority of the all important divisional games and thus winning the division. This team could bust or sneak in, depending on Manning's health. However, if they do make it in, look out! Because they will be very tested and could be very, very dangerous.

Steelers L

@ Falcons L

Texans L

Raiders W

@ Patriots L

@ Chargers W

BYE WEEK

Saints W

@ Bengals W

@ Panthers L

Chargers W

@ Chiefs L

Buccaneers W

@ Raiders L

@ Ravens L

Browns W

Chiefs W

San Diego Chargers

San Diego will do alright. But when it's all said and done they're going to lose one too many games all by themselves (coaching decision, bad clock management, etc...).

@ Raiders W

Titans W

Falcons L

@ Chiefs L

@ Saints L

Broncos L

BYE WEEK

@ Browns W

Chiefs W

@ Buccaneers W

@ Broncos L

Ravens L

Bengals W

@ Steelers L

Panthers W

@ Jets L

Raiders W

Oakland Raiders

Oakland is going to be very streaky. They have it tough early on but they'll make a mid season run to try and recover. They will even be in good shape going into the final two weeks of the season. However, the last two games on the road will do them in.

Chargers L

@ Dolphins L

Steelers L

@ Broncos L

BYE WEEK

@ Falcons W

Jaguars W

@ Chiefs W

Buccaneers W

@ Ravens L

Saints W

@ Bengals L

Browns W

Broncos W

Chiefs W

@ Panthers L

@ Chargers L

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City will start hot but they're going to lose too many divisional games. In the end that is what will do them in.

Falcons W

@ Bills L

@ Saints W

Chargers W

Ravens W

@ Buccaneers W

BYE WEEK

Raiders L

@ Chargers L

@ Steelers L

Bengals L

Broncos W

Panthers L

@ Browns W

@ Raiders L

Colts W

@ Broncos L

 

[LawFitz]

Raiders finally have modern coaching on defense and a modern personnel manager. They upgraded two spots on the OL and Carson Palmer has been working out all offseason instead of drinking Mai Tais.

If DMC stays healthy all season, they win the division easily. If he gets hurt again, they still might take it anyway if Mike Goodson can be at least a decent fill in.