den - I'm kind of surprised to see so many people in this thread are as skeptical as myself with regard to Manning. Even if you just throw all the health issues out the window, how many HOF QB's that change teams in their mid/late 30's end up being successful with their new team?
That's a misleading question. How many HoF QBs change teams in their mid/late 30's? How many of those QBs changing teams sign contracts for $18 million a year, and are called the biggest free agent in history? There's not a lot of precedent for highly coveted HoF QBs switching teams. With that said, I can still take a shot at answering. There are 26 QBs currently enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Of those 26, 14 spent their entire career with a single franchise, leaving us with 12 QBs who switched teams at least once during their career. Of the 12 team-switchers, two of them (Steve Young and Len Dawson) switched in their 20s (and made no subsequent switches in their 30s), and are therefore not applicable. A third (Sonny Jurgenson) made the switch in his age 30 season, and is likewise probably too young for consideration (in case anyone cares, he made 1 pro bowl in 7 seasons in Philly, then switched at age 30 and made 4 pro bowls in 11 seasons in Washington). Here is a brief breakdown of the 9 remaining QBs, sorted alphabetically:
[*]George Blanda- Played 10 years for the Chicago Bears, then switched to the Houston Oilers prior to his age 33 season. Played 7 years for the Oilers, then switched to the Oakland Raiders prior to his age 40 season. Never made a pro bowl for Chicago, then made 3 (including one 1st team AP All Pro) for Houston, including 2 seasons where he led the league in passing yards, 3 seasons where he led the league in attempts and completions, and 4 seasons where he led the league in INTs. His Oakland career is largely irrelevant for this discussion, since by that point he was really just a kicker. He did make a pro bowl in Oakland in a season where he led the league in FG%, XPA, and XPs, for whatever that's worth. Clearly successful after his switch.
[*]Bobby Layne- He's the only real pre-modern QB on this list, but I figured I might as well break him down, anyway. After 11 years with Detroit, Chicago, and the New York Bulldogs, Layne joined the Pittsburgh Steelers in the middle of his age 32 season. He made 4 pro bowls in 11 years prior to switching, and 1 pro bowl in 4 years after switching. I honestly have no idea whether he should be considered successful or not, since the NFL was a completely different animal back then (Layne once was named 1st team AP All Pro in a season where he threw for 1900 yards, 9 TDs, and 17 INTs). Oh yeah, he also kicked field goals for the Steelers for two seasons.
[*]Joe Montana- played 13 years for 49ers, then switched to KC prior to his age 37 season and played 2 more years. 7 pro bowls and 2 1st team AP All Pros prior to the switch, 1 pro bowl after the switch. Ranked 5th in the league and 8th in the league in passer rating in his two seasons in Kansas City. Despite missing 7 games in those two seasons, and despite not being nearly as dynamic as he was in San Fran, I would say his pro bowl and his efficiency were enough to earn his Kansas City stint the "successful" label.
[*]Warren Moon- Played 10 years for HOU, then switched at age 38 and played 3 years for MIN, then switched at age 40 and played 2 years for SEA, then switched (yes, again) at age 42 and played 2 years for KAN. Had 6 pro bowls in 10 years in HOU, 2 pro bowls in 3 years in MIN, 1 pro bowl in 2 years in SEA, and no pro bowls in KC. Had two 4,000 yard seasons in Minnesota, and a 3600 yard season in SEA. Given the production and accolades, I would say that Warren Moon was successful in MIN and SEA, but not in KC.
[*]Joe Namath- Played 12 years for the New York Jets, and 4 games for the Rams at age 34. Not even worth breaking it down- Namath with the Rams would not meet any possible definition of "successful".
[*]Fran Tarkenton- After 11 years with the Vikings and Giants, he switched back to the Vikings prior to his age 32 season. After putting up 6 pro bowls (and no 1st team AP All Pros) in his first 11 seasons, he proceeded to put up 3 more pro bowls (and his lone 1st team AP All Pro) in his last 7 seasons with the Vikings. For good measure, he also posted all three of his SB appearances in that span.
[*]Y.A. Tittle- After 13 years with the Colts and 49ers, Tittle switched to the Giants before his age 35 season. After making 4 pro bowls and 1 first team AP All Pro in 13 years, Tittle finished his career making 3 pro bowls and 2 first team AP All Pros in his final 4 seasons after the switch. In fact, all of his post-switch stats dwarf his pre-switch stats- 50 more yards per game, .7 more yards per attempt, 50% higher TD%, 20% lower INT%, and a QB rating 15 points higher. Huge success.
[*]Johnny Unitas- 17 years with the Colts, 5 games with the Chargers at age 40. Like Namath, there's no sense in diving any deeper than that. Not a success.
[*]Norm Van Brocklin- After 9 years with the Rams, Van Brocklin switched to the Eagles prior to his age 32 season. Made 6 pro bowls in 9 years with the Rams, made 3 pro bowls in 3 years with the Eagles, ending his career with his only 1st team AP All Pro season. Successful.
In short, 6 of the 9 HoF QBs to switch teams in their 30s were successful with their new team, 2 of the 9 were unsuccessful, and 1 of the 9 was Bobby Layne. One of the 9 (Moon) even managed to be successful for his new team TWICE in his late 30s. 6 of the 9 QBs (Blanda, Montana, Moon, Tarkenton, Tittle, Unitas) managed to play at least through their age 38 season (which would represent 3 more years for Manning).
If you want to expand this analysis even further, you could easily include likely future Hall of Famers such as Kurt Warner (joined Arizona at 34) and Brett Favre (made a pro bowl with the Jets at 39 and the Vikings at 40), bringing the future HoFers to an 80% post-switch success rate.
Of course, even this analysis is skewed, because several of these QBs would not be HoFers if not for their post-switch performance, meaning they aren't perfect comps for Peyton Manning (who will be a first ballot HoFer even if he never attempts another pass). Which should just reinforce that there's not a whole lot of precedent for what Peyton Manning is doing right now. What little precedent there is, however, is largely positive, even if guys like Namath and Unitas are typically the first ones that come to mind when we think of HoFers switching teams.
