TBLCommish
Footballguy
Just wanted some feedback from the sharks on who they would take with the #1 OV in a PPR league?
I own the #1 and I am heavily leaning towards Johnson!
I own the #1 and I am heavily leaning towards Johnson!
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Who would you pick with the #1 overall pick in a dynasty league? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TBLCommish
- Start date
KoolKat
Footballguy
I own the same in a similar Dynasty league, and am also leaning heavily toward CJ, we also start 3 WR. Peterson just isn't durable enough, and although my RBs are relatively thin (Maroney, Cadillac,C. Taylor, Foster) it is too tempting to pass on a guy who appears to be such an unbelievable lock, whereas although AD may have a couple amazing LT-esque years, he most likely will wear down like J. Lewis and Eddie George, and has never shown he can catch the ball remarkably well. If CJ can stay healthy, I could see him being dominant for more than a decade. The only way my mind would change is if the Raiders took CJ. Other than that, I'm looking at S. Smith, CJ, R. Moss w/ Matt Jones off the bench at WR next year.
TBLCommish
Footballguy
yeah, Mt RBs are LT, Ronnie Brown, DeAngelo Williams and TJ Duckett. We are only required to start 1 QB,1 RB, 1 WR,1 TE and 3 flex each weekI just think Johnson is the "best" offensive player in this draft and AP's durability is a HUGE concern to me.I agree with you if CJ goes to the Raiders or the Lions( It could happen) I will stay away!
EBF
Footballguy
Format is everything.
In a big league with RB heavy scoring (Zealots or Misfits), you have to take a RB. Peterson or Lynch has to be the pick. Take the one who goes to a good offense. If neither goes to a good offense, take Peterson.
In a start 2 RB league, you almost have to take a RB. RBs are simply too rare and valuable to pass on in this format.
In any non-PPR league, I think you have to take Peterson or Lynch.
In a start 1 RB league with PPR, Johnson becomes a viable selection. His upside is significantly lower than Lynch's or Peterson, but he's a better player than Lynch and he doesn't have the long-term durability issues of Peterson.
It really depends on your league setup, your team, and on what happens during the NFL draft.
Without knowing any of that, I'd say Peterson looks like the best pick right now. But be warned that his PPR value might be limited, because stud RBs who don't catch passes are of diminished value in PPR (guys like Alexander, LJ, and Lewis have never sniffed the production of Faulk or Tomlinson).
In a big league with RB heavy scoring (Zealots or Misfits), you have to take a RB. Peterson or Lynch has to be the pick. Take the one who goes to a good offense. If neither goes to a good offense, take Peterson.
In a start 2 RB league, you almost have to take a RB. RBs are simply too rare and valuable to pass on in this format.
In any non-PPR league, I think you have to take Peterson or Lynch.
In a start 1 RB league with PPR, Johnson becomes a viable selection. His upside is significantly lower than Lynch's or Peterson, but he's a better player than Lynch and he doesn't have the long-term durability issues of Peterson.
It really depends on your league setup, your team, and on what happens during the NFL draft.
Without knowing any of that, I'd say Peterson looks like the best pick right now. But be warned that his PPR value might be limited, because stud RBs who don't catch passes are of diminished value in PPR (guys like Alexander, LJ, and Lewis have never sniffed the production of Faulk or Tomlinson).
EBF
Footballguy
Just do drive home that point, here are some of the best PPR seasons by non-pass catching RBs compared to some of the best PPR seasons by WRs and pass-catching RBs:
Group A - Elite RB seasons, less than 50 catches
Terrell Davis 1998 - 2,008 rushing yards, 25 catches, 217 rec. yards, 23 total TDs - 386 points - 24.13 ppg
Jamal Lewis 2003 - 2,066 rushing yards, 26 catches, 205 rec. yards, 14 total TDs - 338 points - 21.13 ppg
Shaun Alexander 2005 - 1,880 rushing yards, 15 catches, 78 rec. yards, 28 total TDs - 379 points - 23.68 ppg
Larry Johnson 2006 -1,789 rushing yards, 41 catches, 410 rec. yards, 19 total TDs - 375 points - 23.44 ppg
Group B - Elite WR seasons
Terrell Owens 2002 - 100 catches, 1,300 rec. yards, 79 rushing yards, 14 total TDs - 322 points (14 games) - 23 ppg
Marvin Harrison 2002 - 143 catches, 1,722 rec. yards, 10 rushing yards, 11 total TDs - 382 points - 23.88 ppg
Randy Moss 2003 - 111 catches, 1,632 rec. yards, 18 rushing yards, 17 total TDs - 376 points - 23.5 ppg
Torry Holt 2003 - 117 catches, 1696 rec. yards, 5 rushing yards, 12 total TDs - 359 points - 22.44 ppg
Group C - Elite RB seasons, at least 50 catches
Marshall Faulk 2000 - 1,359 rushing yards, 81 catches, 830 rec. yards, 26 total TDs - 456 points (14 games) - 32.57 ppg
Priest Holmes 2003 - 1,420 rushing yards, 74 catches, 690 rec. yards, 27 total TDs - 447 points - 27.94 ppg
LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 - 1,815 rushing yards, 56 catches, 508 rec. yards, 31 total TDs - 476 points - 29.75 ppg
As you can see, the PPG averages from Group A are not significantly higher than the PPG averages from Group B. In a PPR league, it is clear that a great WR can score about as much as a great RB who doesn't catch a lot of passes. This seems consistent with my observations. Marvin Harrison outscored Shaun Alexander last year. Terrell Owens nearly outscored Larry Johnson in 2005.
However, you start to see a very significant advantage when you compare the Group C seasons with the Group B seasons. An elite RB who catches a lot of passes clearly has a much higher ceiling than an elite WR. The 32.6 ppg average by Marshall Faulk in 2000 is almost 10 ppg higher than any of the elite WR averages.
What this means to me is that when comparing WR and RB prospects, it's not enough to ask "will this RB be an elite player?" You also have to consider whether or not he'll catch passes. Because even if he becomes an elite player, his value won't necessarily be any higher than that of an elite WR unless he catches a lot of passes. That's why I'd argue that Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander are somewhat overrated right now, and that LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson look like the real elite players in PPR leagues.
How is this relevant to this discussion? It's important to consider the system that Lynch and Peterson play in. If they go to teams that utilize them in the passing game, then they have a good chance to outproduce Calvin Johnson. If not, Calvin Johnson might actually outscore them.
Group A - Elite RB seasons, less than 50 catches
Terrell Davis 1998 - 2,008 rushing yards, 25 catches, 217 rec. yards, 23 total TDs - 386 points - 24.13 ppg
Jamal Lewis 2003 - 2,066 rushing yards, 26 catches, 205 rec. yards, 14 total TDs - 338 points - 21.13 ppg
Shaun Alexander 2005 - 1,880 rushing yards, 15 catches, 78 rec. yards, 28 total TDs - 379 points - 23.68 ppg
Larry Johnson 2006 -1,789 rushing yards, 41 catches, 410 rec. yards, 19 total TDs - 375 points - 23.44 ppg
Group B - Elite WR seasons
Terrell Owens 2002 - 100 catches, 1,300 rec. yards, 79 rushing yards, 14 total TDs - 322 points (14 games) - 23 ppg
Marvin Harrison 2002 - 143 catches, 1,722 rec. yards, 10 rushing yards, 11 total TDs - 382 points - 23.88 ppg
Randy Moss 2003 - 111 catches, 1,632 rec. yards, 18 rushing yards, 17 total TDs - 376 points - 23.5 ppg
Torry Holt 2003 - 117 catches, 1696 rec. yards, 5 rushing yards, 12 total TDs - 359 points - 22.44 ppg
Group C - Elite RB seasons, at least 50 catches
Marshall Faulk 2000 - 1,359 rushing yards, 81 catches, 830 rec. yards, 26 total TDs - 456 points (14 games) - 32.57 ppg
Priest Holmes 2003 - 1,420 rushing yards, 74 catches, 690 rec. yards, 27 total TDs - 447 points - 27.94 ppg
LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 - 1,815 rushing yards, 56 catches, 508 rec. yards, 31 total TDs - 476 points - 29.75 ppg
As you can see, the PPG averages from Group A are not significantly higher than the PPG averages from Group B. In a PPR league, it is clear that a great WR can score about as much as a great RB who doesn't catch a lot of passes. This seems consistent with my observations. Marvin Harrison outscored Shaun Alexander last year. Terrell Owens nearly outscored Larry Johnson in 2005.
However, you start to see a very significant advantage when you compare the Group C seasons with the Group B seasons. An elite RB who catches a lot of passes clearly has a much higher ceiling than an elite WR. The 32.6 ppg average by Marshall Faulk in 2000 is almost 10 ppg higher than any of the elite WR averages.
What this means to me is that when comparing WR and RB prospects, it's not enough to ask "will this RB be an elite player?" You also have to consider whether or not he'll catch passes. Because even if he becomes an elite player, his value won't necessarily be any higher than that of an elite WR unless he catches a lot of passes. That's why I'd argue that Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander are somewhat overrated right now, and that LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson look like the real elite players in PPR leagues.
How is this relevant to this discussion? It's important to consider the system that Lynch and Peterson play in. If they go to teams that utilize them in the passing game, then they have a good chance to outproduce Calvin Johnson. If not, Calvin Johnson might actually outscore them.
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Outstanding post.So Non ppr running backs = ppr wide receivers but both are < ppr running backs. So it's it safe to say that if you're in a non ppr or a ppr that AD is the #1 choice, or if you're in a ppr that Lynch is the #1 choice?Just do drive home that point, here are some of the best PPR seasons by non-pass catching RBs compared to some of the best PPR seasons by WRs and pass-catching RBs:
Group A - Elite RB seasons, less than 50 catches
Terrell Davis 1998 - 2,008 rushing yards, 25 catches, 217 rec. yards, 23 total TDs - 386 points - 24.13 ppg
Jamal Lewis 2003 - 2,066 rushing yards, 26 catches, 205 rec. yards, 14 total TDs - 338 points - 21.13 ppg
Shaun Alexander 2005 - 1,880 rushing yards, 15 catches, 78 rec. yards, 28 total TDs - 379 points - 23.68 ppg
Larry Johnson 2006 -1,789 rushing yards, 41 catches, 410 rec. yards, 19 total TDs - 375 points - 23.44 ppg
Group B - Elite WR seasons
Terrell Owens 2002 - 100 catches, 1,300 rec. yards, 79 rushing yards, 14 total TDs - 322 points (14 games) - 23 ppg
Marvin Harrison 2002 - 143 catches, 1,722 rec. yards, 10 rushing yards, 11 total TDs - 382 points - 23.88 ppg
Randy Moss 2003 - 111 catches, 1,632 rec. yards, 18 rushing yards, 17 total TDs - 376 points - 23.5 ppg
Torry Holt 2003 - 117 catches, 1696 rec. yards, 5 rushing yards, 12 total TDs - 359 points - 22.44 ppg
Group C - Elite RB seasons, at least 50 catches
Marshall Faulk 2000 - 1,359 rushing yards, 81 catches, 830 rec. yards, 26 total TDs - 456 points (14 games) - 32.57 ppg
Priest Holmes 2003 - 1,420 rushing yards, 74 catches, 690 rec. yards, 27 total TDs - 447 points - 27.94 ppg
LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 - 1,815 rushing yards, 56 catches, 508 rec. yards, 31 total TDs - 476 points - 29.75 ppg
As you can see, the PPG averages from Group A are not significantly higher than the PPG averages from Group B. In a PPR league, it is clear that a great WR can score about as much as a great RB who doesn't catch a lot of passes. This seems consistent with my observations. Marvin Harrison outscored Shaun Alexander last year. Terrell Owens nearly outscored Larry Johnson in 2005.
However, you start to see a very significant advantage when you compare the Group C seasons with the Group B seasons. An elite RB who catches a lot of passes clearly has a much higher ceiling than an elite WR. The 32.6 ppg average by Marshall Faulk in 2000 is almost 10 ppg higher than any of the elite WR averages.
What this means to me is that when comparing WR and RB prospects, it's not enough to ask "will this RB be an elite player?" You also have to consider whether or not he'll catch passes. Because even if he becomes an elite player, his value won't necessarily be any higher than that of an elite WR unless he catches a lot of passes. That's why I'd argue that Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander are somewhat overrated right now, and that LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson look like the real elite players in PPR leagues.
How is this relevant to this discussion? It's important to consider the system that Lynch and Peterson play in. If they go to teams that utilize them in the passing game, then they have a good chance to outproduce Calvin Johnson. If not, Calvin Johnson might actually outscore them.
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Saints-Man
Footballguy
I can't answer this now. I will wait until after the NFL draft to have a better perspective on what NFL teams draft these players.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I wouldn't necessarily assume that AD won't be a decent pass catching back at the NFL level just because he wasn't used in that capacity in college.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't think it's as simple as that. Can Peterson catch passes? He only caught 24 balls in three years at Oklahoma, but that doesn't mean he won't do better in the NFL. Kevin Jones wasn't a great receiver in college. Last year he was on pace for 80+ catches before he got hurt. I think we have to pay attention to how he catches the ball in workouts and to where he goes in the draft. Cleveland doesn't seem to throw to its backs a whole lot, but Droughns had 39 catches in 2005. It's conceivable that Peterson could have 30-50 catches in that system. Houston is another tough spot to gauge. Kubiak comes from Denver and the Broncos don't typically throw to their backs very much. However, Wali Lundy caught 33 balls in limited action last season. If he can do that, then why not Peterson? From where we stand right now, Lynch definitely looks like the more polished pass catcher, but he's not exactly Reggie Bush. I'd compare him to someone like Edgerrin James or Thomas Jones. He'll probably average between 30-60 catches per 16 starts. Whether or not that's enough of an advantage to make him a better PPR option than Peterson is questionable. There's no denying that a favorable offensive system can have a huge impact on the number of catches that a player gets. At the same time, I don't think Peterson has the look of a guy will consistently catch 50-70 balls in a season. If he's going to be a truly elite PPR RB, then it will probably be because of rushing yards and TDs. That might limit his upside to the Terrell Davis/Shaun Alexander 18-23 ppg range. If he winds up in a no-nonsense system that doesn't utilize backs in the passing game, then he might not be any better than Jamal Lewis, who hasn't consistently been a very good PPR option. It's just really tough to predict how these things will play out. However, I certainly think you have to give a slight advantage to the pass-catching types in PPR. It's no coincidence that LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Kevin Jones, MJD, and Reggie Bush were top ten in PPG in those leagues last year.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I very much appreciate your insight in this thread. It just seems that (according to your analysis) the point difference between the Non catching running is not all that great when compared to the WRs in a ppr league which contradict the assumption that if you're in a ppr league that the WRs hold more value. Again, according to what you've posted, this is not neccessarily the case.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Taking the average of each group (small sample):
Group C: 27.08 (50 + catches)
Group A: 23.14 (-50 catches)
Group B: 18.44 (Elite WRs)
So even the best pass catching WRs don't compare to the running backs that not don't catch many passes even in a ppr league. I hope this clearer.
Group C: 27.08 (50 + catches)
Group A: 23.14 (-50 catches)
Group B: 18.44 (Elite WRs)
So even the best pass catching WRs don't compare to the running backs that not don't catch many passes even in a ppr league. I hope this clearer.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
I think EBF pretty much nailed it concerning format.I'll just add that if you are still set on owning Johnson there's nothing wrong with that at all, but don't take him at 1.01. You'll do better by not letting your leaguemates know your preference (probably too late if they come here) and trading down. Get a feel for what the guys at 1.02 and 1.03 are after. If they are strong on Peterson, you can have your guy plus something extra in a trade.
Math corrected. Elite WRs are slightly higher than RBs with less than 50 catches.
Excellent post -- very interesting and informative.Don't forget Jerry Rice:Just do drive home that point, here are some of the best PPR seasons by non-pass catching RBs compared to some of the best PPR seasons by WRs and pass-catching RBs:
Group A - Elite RB seasons, less than 50 catches
Terrell Davis 1998 - 2,008 rushing yards, 25 catches, 217 rec. yards, 23 total TDs - 386 points - 24.13 ppg
Jamal Lewis 2003 - 2,066 rushing yards, 26 catches, 205 rec. yards, 14 total TDs - 338 points - 21.13 ppg
Shaun Alexander 2005 - 1,880 rushing yards, 15 catches, 78 rec. yards, 28 total TDs - 379 points - 23.68 ppg
Larry Johnson 2006 -1,789 rushing yards, 41 catches, 410 rec. yards, 19 total TDs - 375 points - 23.44 ppg
Group B - Elite WR seasons
Terrell Owens 2002 - 100 catches, 1,300 rec. yards, 79 rushing yards, 14 total TDs - 322 points (14 games) - 23 ppg
Marvin Harrison 2002 - 143 catches, 1,722 rec. yards, 10 rushing yards, 11 total TDs - 382 points - 23.88 ppg
Randy Moss 2003 - 111 catches, 1,632 rec. yards, 18 rushing yards, 17 total TDs - 376 points - 23.5 ppg
Torry Holt 2003 - 117 catches, 1696 rec. yards, 5 rushing yards, 12 total TDs - 359 points - 22.44 ppg
Group C - Elite RB seasons, at least 50 catches
Marshall Faulk 2000 - 1,359 rushing yards, 81 catches, 830 rec. yards, 26 total TDs - 456 points (14 games) - 32.57 ppg
Priest Holmes 2003 - 1,420 rushing yards, 74 catches, 690 rec. yards, 27 total TDs - 447 points - 27.94 ppg
LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 - 1,815 rushing yards, 56 catches, 508 rec. yards, 31 total TDs - 476 points - 29.75 ppg
As you can see, the PPG averages from Group A are not significantly higher than the PPG averages from Group B. In a PPR league, it is clear that a great WR can score about as much as a great RB who doesn't catch a lot of passes. This seems consistent with my observations. Marvin Harrison outscored Shaun Alexander last year. Terrell Owens nearly outscored Larry Johnson in 2005.
However, you start to see a very significant advantage when you compare the Group C seasons with the Group B seasons. An elite RB who catches a lot of passes clearly has a much higher ceiling than an elite WR. The 32.6 ppg average by Marshall Faulk in 2000 is almost 10 ppg higher than any of the elite WR averages.
What this means to me is that when comparing WR and RB prospects, it's not enough to ask "will this RB be an elite player?" You also have to consider whether or not he'll catch passes. Because even if he becomes an elite player, his value won't necessarily be any higher than that of an elite WR unless he catches a lot of passes. That's why I'd argue that Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander are somewhat overrated right now, and that LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson look like the real elite players in PPR leagues.
How is this relevant to this discussion? It's important to consider the system that Lynch and Peterson play in. If they go to teams that utilize them in the passing game, then they have a good chance to outproduce Calvin Johnson. If not, Calvin Johnson might actually outscore them.
1995 - 122 catches, 1848 rec. yds., 36 rush yds., 16 TDs, 406.4 pts, 25.4 PPG
1994 - 112 catches, 1499 rec. yds., 93 rush yds., 15 TDs, 361.2 pts., 22.6 PPG
1993 - 98 catches, 1503 rec. yds., 69 rush yds, 16 TDs, 351.2 pts, 22.0 PPG
1987 - (12 games), 65 catches, 1078 rec. yds, 51 rush yds., 23 TDs, 315.9 pts, 26.3 PPG
He also had a number of other seasons above 20 PPG. If you add in his 1987 and 1995 seasons and re-calculate the top-4, I think you get 24.77 PPG -- compared to 27.08 for RBs with 50+ catches and 23.14 for RBs with less than 50 catches.
I haven't done any analysis, but I think that the falloff from the top WRs is less severe than the falloff from the top RBs. I don't know if you would get different results if you looked at the top-5 (or top-10) WRs in the average season, compared to the top-5(10) RBs. I think that may be the key issue for comparing elite WRs and RBs, rather than looking at all-time record seasons.
Focusing on a few of the all-time most productive seasons may yield different results than "What do I expect from a RB or WR who I think will be top-5 or top-10 over several seasons?" In a ppr format, WRs (who are consistently high-scoring) may be more valuable than RBs who catch more than 50 passes on average -- just speculation. But you could test it by comparing the PPG results for the last 5 years for WRs like Harrison, Owens, and Holt against comparable groups of RBs with more or less than 50 catches on average. Or by looking at the combined experience of the top-5 (or top-10) players at each position.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Larry Johnson isn't a great receiver, but he's easily a top 3 RB right now. We won't know if Peterson can live up to that, but he has the talent to. If he's not Larry, he still might be Rudi, who was a top 10 RB last year in my PPR leagues. Of course, he could be Kijana Carter - but I'm betting against that.However, where it gets complicated is while Rudi was the #10 RB, he wouldn't have outscored the #15 WR. Larry outscored the #1 WR by 70 points. While I don't think it's a stretch to project CJ as a top 10-15 WR, AD vs. Calvin in PPR comes down to whether you think AD is closer to LJ or Rudi. I happen to think it's LJ. I haven't looked to closely at Lynch yet, as I haven't considered him ahead of either, but it seems to me his highest upside is Tiki Barber, low end is Kevin Faulk.Family Matters
Footballguy
Excellent post EBF. I'm reminded of having Faulk for a few years. He's was a stud for sure.As to the AD V CJ debate, I'm not sold on AD yet. He is talented that';s for sure but something about his health has me worried. If he's healthy then I'd take him hands down in most formats because good backs are hard to find.Just do drive home that point, here are some of the best PPR seasons by non-pass catching RBs compared to some of the best PPR seasons by WRs and pass-catching RBs:
Group A - Elite RB seasons, less than 50 catches
Terrell Davis 1998 - 2,008 rushing yards, 25 catches, 217 rec. yards, 23 total TDs - 386 points - 24.13 ppg
Jamal Lewis 2003 - 2,066 rushing yards, 26 catches, 205 rec. yards, 14 total TDs - 338 points - 21.13 ppg
Shaun Alexander 2005 - 1,880 rushing yards, 15 catches, 78 rec. yards, 28 total TDs - 379 points - 23.68 ppg
Larry Johnson 2006 -1,789 rushing yards, 41 catches, 410 rec. yards, 19 total TDs - 375 points - 23.44 ppg
Group B - Elite WR seasons
Terrell Owens 2002 - 100 catches, 1,300 rec. yards, 79 rushing yards, 14 total TDs - 322 points (14 games) - 23 ppg
Marvin Harrison 2002 - 143 catches, 1,722 rec. yards, 10 rushing yards, 11 total TDs - 382 points - 23.88 ppg
Randy Moss 2003 - 111 catches, 1,632 rec. yards, 18 rushing yards, 17 total TDs - 376 points - 23.5 ppg
Torry Holt 2003 - 117 catches, 1696 rec. yards, 5 rushing yards, 12 total TDs - 359 points - 22.44 ppg
Group C - Elite RB seasons, at least 50 catches
Marshall Faulk 2000 - 1,359 rushing yards, 81 catches, 830 rec. yards, 26 total TDs - 456 points (14 games) - 32.57 ppg
Priest Holmes 2003 - 1,420 rushing yards, 74 catches, 690 rec. yards, 27 total TDs - 447 points - 27.94 ppg
LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 - 1,815 rushing yards, 56 catches, 508 rec. yards, 31 total TDs - 476 points - 29.75 ppg
As you can see, the PPG averages from Group A are not significantly higher than the PPG averages from Group B. In a PPR league, it is clear that a great WR can score about as much as a great RB who doesn't catch a lot of passes. This seems consistent with my observations. Marvin Harrison outscored Shaun Alexander last year. Terrell Owens nearly outscored Larry Johnson in 2005.
However, you start to see a very significant advantage when you compare the Group C seasons with the Group B seasons. An elite RB who catches a lot of passes clearly has a much higher ceiling than an elite WR. The 32.6 ppg average by Marshall Faulk in 2000 is almost 10 ppg higher than any of the elite WR averages.
What this means to me is that when comparing WR and RB prospects, it's not enough to ask "will this RB be an elite player?" You also have to consider whether or not he'll catch passes. Because even if he becomes an elite player, his value won't necessarily be any higher than that of an elite WR unless he catches a lot of passes. That's why I'd argue that Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander are somewhat overrated right now, and that LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson look like the real elite players in PPR leagues.
How is this relevant to this discussion? It's important to consider the system that Lynch and Peterson play in. If they go to teams that utilize them in the passing game, then they have a good chance to outproduce Calvin Johnson. If not, Calvin Johnson might actually outscore them.
CJ will be a stud and he has fewer concerns excpet where he ends up. HArd to go wrong with either of these guys but if you really want CJ then try to trade out of the first and get an exta pick somewhere because CJ will be there at 2 most likely.
Quick Question -- are you a pure keeper league or a contract league? In a contract league (where you keep your rookie for anywhere from 3-5 years - I won't get into taxi squad or development squad stuff) I find an RB rookie is more useful, quicker than a WR - who may waste several years (3 on average) developing before they become top flight WRs. At least that's my experience.
If you keep them for life, I could see you going either way, depending on need.
I don't know enough about CJ to say definitively though.
If you keep them for life, I could see you going either way, depending on need.
I don't know enough about CJ to say definitively though.
