Has anyone researched these guys rankings pre-season to where the players ended the season? I remember reading an article somewhere (not on FBG's) that listed the closest pre-season rankings to where the season actually played out, but that was by site only. FBG's came out pretty close to the top on that one, but I assume they were using the consensus ranking.
I think I can take a stab at this, as I saved a copy of the staff rankings last year. I play dynasty IDP leagues almost exclusively, and always pay attention to the FBG rookie rankings, mostly just to get an idea of the consensus ADP of the rookies. For me, the late April/early May staff rookie rankings are the key rankings to focus on since that’s about the time most rookie drafts are in full swing. I also tend to focus on those picks where the staff members’ rankings most diverge from the conventional wisdom. (Not necessarily because I think straying from the conventional wisdom is a good thing…I actually think the conventional wisdom is underrated as a guide…and quite a bit preferable to what I call “unconventional stupidity”: i.e., elevating an unusually high number of long-shots up the ranking list merely to try to hit on the next Marshall/Colston). But in evaluating a person’s quality as a ranker, it’s still the outliers that are going to attract your attention, and credit should be given when rankers
judiciously separate from the herd and get proved correct for having done so. As an example, if everybody says Eddie Royal is going to suck, but you think he's going to blow up, you should get credit for recognizing his promise early. Likewise, if everybody but you thinks James Hardy is the second coming of TO, and he ends up sucking, you should get credit for calling "bust" early. And as a final example, if your ranking of a player is within the same cluster of numbers that every other ranker has a player valued at, that player can be ignored in evaluating the quality of the ranker’s list.I’m not sure the 2008 late April/early May rookie rankings at FBG are available anywhere, so at the risk of making this post even longer than I’m sure it’s going to become, I’m just going to type out what the consensus rankings at that time were, and then later in my post put in parentheses each individual FBG ranker’s ranking of a player when discussing him. I apologize for not posting each individual FBG staff member’s entire rankings but I just wouldn’t have the first clue how to format that without it becoming a gigantic mess and I’m not sure it would be looked on kindly by the staff anyway. At any rate, here’s the 2008 FBG early May consensus rankings list:
1. RB Darren McFadden, OAK
2. RB Jonathan Steward, CAR
3. RB Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
4. RB Matt Forte, CHI
5. RB Kevin Smith, DET
6. RB Felix Jones, DAL
7. RB Ray Rice, BAL
8. WR James Hardy, BUF
9. QB Matt Ryan, ATL
10. RB Chris Johnson, TEN
11. WR Devin Thomas, WAS
12. WR Limas Sweed, PIT
13. WR Donnie Avery, STL
14. WR Malcolm Kelly, WAS
15. WR Earl Bennett, CHI
16. RB Jamaal Charles, KC
17. WR DeSean Jackson, PHI
18. WR Jordy Nelson, GB
19. QB Chad Henne, MIA
20. RB Ryan Torain, DEN
21. QB Joe Flacco, BAL
22. WR Jerome Simpson, CIN
23. WR Mario Manningham, NYG
24. WR Early Doucet, ARI
25. TE Dustin Keller, NYJ
26. QB Brian Brohm, GB
27. RB Steve Slaton, HOU
28. WR Andre Caldwell, CIN
29. WR Eddie Royal, DEN
30. TE John Carlson, SEA
31. RB Mike Hart, IND
32. WR Lavelle Hawkins, TEN
33. RB Tashard Choice, DAL
34. RB Jacob Hester, SD
35. QB Josh Johnson, TB
36. TE Fred Davis, WAS
37. WR Keenan Burton, STL
38. RB Chauncey Washington, JAX
39. RB Justin Forsett, SEA
40. RB Tim Hightower, ARI
41. RB Xavier Omon, BUF
42. QB John David Booty, MIN
43. RB Jerome Felton, DET
44. RB Thomas Brown, ATL
45. TE Martellus Bennett, DAL
46. TE Martin Rucker, CLE
47. WR Dexter Jackson, TB
48. RB Marcus Thomas, SD
49. RB Cory Boyd, TB
50. RB Jalen Parmele, MIA
51. TE Jacob Tamme, IND
52. RB Peyton Hillis, DEN
53. TE Gary Barnidge, CAR
54. WR Will Franklin, KC
55. QB Erik Ainge, NYJ
56. TE Jermichael Finley, GB
57. WR Steve Johnson, BUF
58. TE Matt Sherry, CIN
59. TE Craig Stevens, TEN
60. TE Brad Cottam, KC
61. WR Harry Douglas ATL
62. WR Marcus Monk, CHI
63. WR Adrian Arrington, NO
64. QB Kevin O’Connell, NE
Analyzing last year’s staff rankings, you can ignore the first four consensus picks, McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall and Forte: every staff member had them somewhere in his top 7 picks. The consensus #5 pick is where it began to get interesting as staff members started to stray from the consensus more. RB Kevin Smith has been a pleasant surprise, and Jeff Haseley’s bold move of putting him at #2 overall doesn’t seem too off base anymore. Marc Faletti (16) and Sigmund Bloom (13) were the staff members who most underestimated his value.
The consensus picks at 6 and 7 were Felix Jones and Ray Rice. It’s hard to gauge their value yet because injury cut short Jones’ contributions (although he looked very good before going down) and Ray Rice is still mired in a RBBC as was expected in his first year. Their value is holding steady at 27/28 in the current dynasty RB rankings. I didn’t include those two players in the analysis but for the record, Bloom and Faletti had Felix Jones very low in their rankings, and Haseley had Rice very low. Everybody else was pretty close to the consensus ranking.
James Hardy was the consensus pick at #8, and I think it’s fair to say that after a very underwhelming start and then blowing out his ACL his value has plummeted. The staff members who seemed (correctly, with 20/20 hindsight) most leery of drafting him high were Bob Henry (13), John Norton (11) and Cecil Lammey (11). Those staff members most guilty of “overranking” Hardy were Bloom and Faletti (both of whom had him at #6 overall). Next in the consensus rankings were QB Matt Ryan at #9 and RB Chris Johnson at #10. I think it’s fair to say that both of these guys have exceeded expectations, and kudos should go to those staff members who had them ranked highly. As for Ryan, John Norton (6) and Cecil Lammey (8) had him highest in their rankings. Jason Wood and Jeff Haseley both had him lowest in their rankings (14). Faletti and Jeff Tefertiller both had Chris Johnson at #4 in their rankings, and Lammey and Bloom had him at #5. John Norton whiffed completely by having Johnson at #38, and Jeff Pasquino and Jason Wood’s ranking of Johnson at 16 meant you wouldn’t have had a prayer of getting CJ with your pick if you’d followed their advice, either. Five WRs followed next in the consensus rankings: Devin Thomas, Limas Sweed, Donnie Avery, Malcolm Kelly and Earl Bennett, in that order. In the current May 2009 dynasty rankings for WR, Avery is at 27, Devin Thomas is at 61, Sweed is at 72, Kelly is at 75 and Bennett is at 76. It’s pretty clear that those who had Avery ranked relatively high made the best call while those who had the other WRs ranked highly probably overvalued them. Faletti (7) and Haseley (8) had Avery ranked high. Tefertiller (29) and Pasquino (26) didn’t think much of him. As for those other WRs who have really stumbled out of the blocks, Bloom, Faletti and Borbely all had Devin Thomas ranked very high (8), and Jason Wood (18) and Haseley (17) were the most skeptical. Pasquino and Haseley both had Sweed in their top 10. Bob Henry and Sigmund Bloom both drank the Malcolm Kelly Kool-Aid and had him at 11. Haseley and Norton both had Kelly at 22, and their skepticism has been proved correct, at least thus far. Bloom also had the highest ranking for Earl Bennett, at 12, and after his no-catch rookie season, his value has plummeted pretty far. Lammey was most wary of Bennett, and his ranking of 29 would have assured you of not wasting an early pick on him.
At number 16 in the consensus rankings was Jamaal Charles, and while it’s still too early to say whether or not he’ll work out, he’s looked good on the field and his dynasty value is holding steady at this point. Give a thumbs up to those who had him ranked relatively high (Lammey, Wood, Hasely and Tefertiller) and a thumbs down to those who had him way down in their rankings (Faletti at 35, and Norton and Bloom in the mid-20s)
DeSean Jackson was next in the consensus rankings at #17, and drafters would be elated to have gotten him in the second round of their drafts. Falleti (12) and Pasquino (13) correctly predicted his high value. Bob Henry (36), John Norton (29) and Borbely (26) whiffed.
Going down the consensus rankings, the next player who really outperformed his ranking was QB Joe Flacco. He was #21 in the consensus rankings, and Pasquino (11) and Tefertiller (13) were highest on him by quite some margin. Those who had him so low in their rankings as to virtually assure you of not getting him were Norton (33), Faletti (30) and Bloom (28).
Moving down the list, the next guy to really shine as a rookie was Dustin Keller (consensus ranking: 25). Those highest on him were Bob Henry (17), John Norton (19) and Borbely (19). Pasquino wasn’t going to risk a sip of that Kool-Aid, and had Keller down at a staff-low ranking of 34.
The consensus ranking for QB Brian Brohm was #26, but staff members were all over the map ranking him. Rudnicky, Bloom, Borbely, Lammy and Norton all had him ranked very high. Haseley, Wood, Henry and Faletti were all the most skeptical, and pushed him way down their rankings. Wood, in fact, couldn’t even find room for him in his top 40 rookies. The general consensus from Packer insiders last season was that Brohm had fallen behind Matt Flynn on the depth chart, so you have to give credit to those staff members who didn’t recommend taking him with a high pick.
Down at #27 in the consensus rankings was another RB who vastly outperformed expectations: Steve Slaton. He was the SOD for many an owner and a tip of the hat is due to those staff members who saw it coming: Jason Wood, who was bold enough to put him at #10 in his rankings, and Tefertiller, who had him at #16. Borbely felt so little of him that he didn’t even include him in his top 40 rookies. Bob Henry was the only other staff member who had him ranked high enough to get picked (19), and all of the other staff members had him ranked in the mid-20s and 30s.
At #29 in the rankings was another SOD candidate: Eddie Royal WR Denver. Bronco insider Lammey was predictably high on him, but his decision to jack him all the way up to 15 in his rankings looks downright brilliant from the vantage point of May 2009. The only other staff members to have him ranked anywhere near that high were Pasquino (20) and Aaron Rudnicki (21).
Right behind Royal in the consensus rankings was Seattle TE John Carlson, whose value has surged since that draft. John Norton was the only staff member to rank him unusually high (18). Wood and Faletti didn’t have him in their top 40, Bloom and Rudnicki had him way down at 33 and the other staff members had him no earlier than the mid-20s.
We have to go all the way down to the #40 consensus ranked player to get the next case of a guy clearly outperforming his ranking: Tim Hightower RB Arizona. Only two staff members had him in their top 40. Pasquino had him way up at 17 overall amongst rookies, and Tefertiller had him at 37.
Peyton Hillis was at #34 in both Jason Wood and Faletti’s rankings. He didn’t crack anyone else’s top 40.
So what does it all mean? Well, depending on where you were picking, you probably could have either prospered or perished following the advice of ANY staff member. If you followed Bloom’s advice (for example) and got Chris Johnson at 1.06, you’re laughing. If you had the 1.08 pick, on the other hand, and on his advice took Hardy over Kevin Smith despite what the conventional wisdom was telling you, well…not so much. Likewise, following, say, Lammey’s advice to take Eddie Royal in the late second or early third probably paid off in spades. But if your choices were Brohm or DeSean Jackson in the second round, he likely led you astray. And while Anthony Borbely might not have led you to the promised land elsewhere in the draft, leading you to Keller might still have been enough to give you a successful draft in the end if your other picks didn’t outright bust.
Looking at the relative booms (Eddie Royal types) and busts (James Hardy types) of the draft I gave out scores based on staffers either whiffing on picks (x) by veering from the conventional wisdom (consensus rankings) or nailing picks by veering from the conventional wisdom (w). As an example: Ranking Chris Johnson highly would get you a (w); Ranking him so low as to preclude the likelihood of him being drafted would get you a (x). If a staffer stayed relatively close to the consensus ranking of a player, that was considered a neutral pick, of no particular interest or value to someone presumably looking for “an edge” in a draft by following more maverick picks. Some of the staff members chose to stick relatively close to the conventional wisdom; others veered off frequently and “threw a lot of spaghetti against the wall” to see what stuck. Grading systems will likely vary on how many “whiffs” you’re willing to tolerate to hit on a long-shot win, but here’s a rough idea of my thoughts on the FBG early-May rookie rankings of last year:
Grades:
Aaron Rudnicki: 9x/1w (deceptively good rankings IMO with very few early round whiffs, and the high Eddie Royal ranking could have produced a great draft) B+
Jeff Haseley: 9x/5w (Nothing flashy about these rankings, with no gaudy long-shot picks that paid off, but lots of solid picks, and the whiffs all came late in the draft) B+
Anthony Borbely: 15x/1w (Ouch! Lots of spaghetti dropping to the floor and virtually nothing sticking. Hopefully he at least steered you into getting Keller in the third) D-
Jeff Tefertiller: 7x/6w (Great rankings, and would have steered you towards valuable RBs like Charles, Slaton and Hightower) A-
Jeff Pasquino: 10x/5w (Whiffed on a lot of early round picks, but his rankings could have seen you to getting both DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal, as well as Hightower with a last round pick.) B
Bob Henry: 8x3w (solid rankings; as with many he whiffed on the Washington WRs, but steered you clear of numerous other busts; failed to hit on any long-shot other than Keller, however) B+
Sigmund Bloom: 14x/3w (Eeeeeeeeyechh!) Bloom will want to forget this ranking list ever happened. Went out on a limb a lot, but crashed to the ground far too often. Failed to hit on a single mid-to-late round SOD type. D
John Norton: 12x/5w (Some inspired picks, but quite a lot of costly whiffs. Correctly touted both Keller and Carlson so you might look to him for your TE rankings, lol) C
Jason Wood: 8x/4w (very good ranking effort, and would have netted you some unexpected late-round RB gems like Slaton and Hillis.) A-
Marc Faletti: 12x/5w (another boom/bust type ranking list that could have produced some big wins, but also some catastrophic bad picks.) B-
Cecil Lammey: 10x/6w (Outstanding rankings, especially early in the draft, and the Eddie Royal call would have paid off big. In hindsight, the best set of rankings amongst the staff IMO) A
OK, have at it. I’m fully aware that it’s WAY too early to be judging last year’s picks, and it’s very possible that the players I’m calling gems now will be called busts next year, whereas those players with low value now might suddenly blossom into stars…at which point these ranking “grades” could look comically inaccurate. There are plenty of 2008 rookies who will still be "rookies" in 09 because their NFL careers haven't yet begun, either because of injury or place in the depth chart. However, for those of us in dynasty leagues, we don’t have the luxury of waiting for everything to ripen completely when assigning value; everybody in the league has a current actual value that presumably takes into account his potential value. I had no intention of coming in here to call out the emperor for having no clothes. I know staff members like Bloom and Borbely enjoy legendary status in these parts, and rightfully so by my reckoning. Only a fool would dismiss their opinions because of a single less-than-stellar set of rankings. I find the results more entertaining than illuminating, and I have the highest respect for the entire FBG staff for not only “laying it out there”, but for providing so much insight into their rankings in the forums. But in the end, as anyone who has devoted a lot of time to researching the rookies can tell you, the draft is still a crapshoot and there’s a maddening disconnect between what you “know” about these players and how they eventually pan out in the NFL. Kind of heartening, in fact, to see even the most acclaimed fantasy "gurus" get it wrong occasionally.
winner take all! 
No doubt. Give us a reason to care about your rankings. Don't rank and run, kids.
Bob Henry is the man for sure. Where is Dodds? 
