Why AP should go #1 overall (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

Before you blast me with LT and SJax love and tell me how they are much more consistent with a potentially much higher number of catches for PPR type formats, I've got to tell you that those two are right there also and are easily justified #1 selections.

That said, here's my take as to why AP is the best choice. Last year I had AP on all my teams so I watched his progression very closely.

I can tell you that early on Childress didn't trust him. Chester Taylor was getting the starts and the majority of snaps and touches. It was originally about a 65/35 split in favor of Taylor, but as the weeks progressed and AP put on highlights with limited opportunities, Childress slowly started to give the kid a bigger and bigger share of the workload. By the eighth game when AP set the rushing record, AP had forced his way into feature status, logging 30 carries that day.

Unfortunately the next week he hurt his LCL and was not the same the rest of the year. He was able to come back for the last five games and while still effective, he wasn't nearly the explosive unstoppable monster I had seen in the first eight games.

So what I am saying is that the guy who ran for 296 against a solid Chargers defense is the guy I'm drafting. His knee should be 100% and a full offseason will give Childress more confidence to let AP be the feature guy.

Discount him a bit for injury risk due to his running style and a bit more for having Tarvaris as his QB but even with those discount factors that guy who blew the doors off the NFL for the first eight games last year is worth the #1 pick.

Both LT and SJax have enough questions of their own for me to pick the best pure player of the three and that man is AP.

 

[massraider]

Both LT and SJax have enough questions of their own for me to pick the best pure player of the three and that man is AP.

What are the questions about LT again?

 

[LawFitz]

Both LT and SJax have enough questions of their own for me to pick the best pure player of the three and that man is AP.

What are the questions about LT again?

Age, knee injury, Pip Rivers (more so the first two than the overrated QB).

 

[shadyridr]

Both LT and SJax have enough questions of their own for me to pick the best pure player of the three and that man is AP.

What are the questions about LT again?

Age, knee injury, Pip Rivers (more so the first two than the overrated QB).

Yep its not like Peterson had a knee injury last year. Oh wait he did. Well at least he can rely on his solid QB. Oh wait his QB is Jackson.

 

[jon007]

Everybody is entitled to their own opinion but if I have the #1 pick this year I am taking LT. The reasons are his running style and production because of his running style. LT very rarely takes a straight full power hit. He always falls going forward and will take it OB at the end of the play. IMO this is the reason LT has lasted as long as he has.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Did you know that ADP had 38% of his rushing yardage production and 50% of his rushing td's in just two games?Now I dont normally play the "take this game away" card.But thats an awful lot of production in 2 games.throw in a high injury factor I dont see how you cant take LT #1.Also ADP had over 20 touches in 4 out of the first 5 games so he got plenty of touches.I like him, love his talent. but he's going at #2 at best for me in traditional leagues and Im still debating him vs. Sjax alot

Both LT and SJax have enough questions of their own for me to pick the best pure player of the three and that man is AP.

the above statement just isnt true either. LT >>>> ADP sorry

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

The ADP and LT people remind me of Locke and Jack from Lost... You're either a man of faith or a man of science.

Me, I'm the same camp as the original poster – a man of faith. I think he makes good points.

 

[mcd]

I wouldn't argue against Peterson at #1, but this is a year that I wouldn't really want the #1. There are 3 to 4 players that are close & I've got Tomlinson at 1. Look at Petersons last 4 games & tell me there is no concern. Against SF, the 49ers sold out against the run & held Peterson to 3 yards on 15 carries. the next 3 games he carried 40 times for 141 yards. He didn't crack the 4 yards a carry mark in any of the games. Over the last 4 games he had 55 carries for 144 yards. It seemed like after the 49er game, defenses had a game plan to stop Peterson. Peterson will be good this year but if the Vikings don't develop a passing game, he can be stopped.

 

[Sabertooth]

I wouldn't argue against Peterson at #1, but this is a year that I wouldn't really want the #1. There are 3 to 4 players that are close & I've got Tomlinson at 1. Look at Petersons last 4 games & tell me there is no concern. Against SF, the 49ers sold out against the run & held Peterson to 3 yards on 15 carries. the next 3 games he carried 40 times for 141 yards. He didn't crack the 4 yards a carry mark in any of the games. Over the last 4 games he had 55 carries for 144 yards. It seemed like after the 49er game, defenses had a game plan to stop Peterson. Peterson will be good this year but if the Vikings don't develop a passing game, he can be stopped.

Agreed, look at the night and day difference in his production against the Bears early and late in the season respectively.

 

[mcd]

I wouldn't argue against Peterson at #1, but this is a year that I wouldn't really want the #1. There are 3 to 4 players that are close & I've got Tomlinson at 1. Look at Petersons last 4 games & tell me there is no concern. Against SF, the 49ers sold out against the run & held Peterson to 3 yards on 15 carries. the next 3 games he carried 40 times for 141 yards. He didn't crack the 4 yards a carry mark in any of the games. Over the last 4 games he had 55 carries for 144 yards. It seemed like after the 49er game, defenses had a game plan to stop Peterson. Peterson will be good this year but if the Vikings don't develop a passing game, he can be stopped.

Agreed, look at the night and day difference in his production against the Bears early and late in the season respectively.

Even worse, you take away Peterson's best run in each of the last 4 games & he carried 51 times for 86 yards. I know, you can't do that, but it does go to show how totally contained he was over a 4 game period (1.68 yards a carry), where the Vkings were fighting for a playoff spot. Wouldn't be my #1 pick.

 

[SaintArnold]

I don't know how you can make this call without knowing the status of Bryant McKinnie. ADP is insane, but he doesn't repeat last year's numbers if he doesn't have a premiere offensive line. And even with the line intact, TJax is going to have to take big steps to avoid 16 repeats of San Francisco.

On the flip side, I want to hear good news about Rivers and Gates before I pick LT.

Knowing what we know now, gun to my head, I go with the proven commodity, even after riding ADP last season.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

in ppr ADP is closer to Jackson/Addai/Gore than Westy and LT2 for me. For mostly the reasons listed by bss and mcd

 

[gianmarco]

Did you know that ADP had 38% of his rushing yardage production and 50% of his rushing td's in just two games?

Now I dont normally play the "take this game away" card.

But thats an awful lot of production in 2 games.

throw in a high injury factor I dont see how you cant take LT #1.

Also ADP had over 20 touches in 4 out of the first 5 games so he got plenty of touches.

I like him, love his talent. but he's going at #2 at best for me in traditional leagues and Im still debating him vs. Sjax alot

Both LT and SJax have enough questions of their own for me to pick the best pure player of the three and that man is AP.

the above statement just isnt true either. LT >>>> ADP sorry

That's the thing about AP. You almost have to predict he's going to have at least 1-2 games/year like this much like LT has done in his career. The elite studs have MONSTER games a couple of times a year and it's almost expected. I would be absolutely stunned if AP didn't have at least 2 games with 150+ yds and/or 3+ TDs. He's capable of it and did it twice already in his 1st year. And while the fact that those 2 games made up a significant chunk of his final #'s, it's not as if he had a bunch of stinkers. In a redraft, I think AP, LT, SJax, and Westbrook are dead-even. They are ALL explosive, ultra-talented, and capable of finishing the year as the #1 as well as capable of those monster games. In a redraft, #4 spot is what you want.

In a dynasty, it's AP/SJ over LT/Westy because of age. Those of you doubting what Peterson brings are way overthinking how he finished the year. I think anyone passing on him in a dynasty is going to regret it much like those who passed on LT for Michael Bennett years ago.

 

[cstu]

Did you know that ADP had 38% of his rushing yardage production and 50% of his rushing td's in just two games?

Now I dont normally play the "take this game away" card.

But thats an awful lot of production in 2 games.

throw in a high injury factor I dont see how you cant take LT #1.

Also ADP had over 20 touches in 4 out of the first 5 games so he got plenty of touches.

I like him, love his talent. but he's going at #2 at best for me in traditional leagues and Im still debating him vs. Sjax alot

Both LT and SJax have enough questions of their own for me to pick the best pure player of the three and that man is AP.

the above statement just isnt true either. LT >>>> ADP sorry

That's the thing about AP. You almost have to predict he's going to have at least 1-2 games/year like this much like LT has done in his career. The elite studs have MONSTER games a couple of times a year and it's almost expected. I would be absolutely stunned if AP didn't have at least 2 games with 150+ yds and/or 3+ TDs. He's capable of it and did it twice already in his 1st year. And while the fact that those 2 games made up a significant chunk of his final #'s, it's not as if he had a bunch of stinkers. In a redraft, I think AP, LT, SJax, and Westbrook are dead-even. They are ALL explosive, ultra-talented, and capable of finishing the year as the #1 as well as capable of those monster games. In a redraft, #4 spot is what you want.

In a dynasty, it's AP/SJ over LT/Westy because of age. Those of you doubting what Peterson brings are way overthinking how he finished the year. I think anyone passing on him in a dynasty are going to regret it much like those who passed on LT for Michael Bennett years ago.

I couldn't even contemplate taking anyone but AP #1 in a dynasty. SJax and LT are close, but neither should be considered for #1. In a redraft I do think it's a coin flip between AP and LT.

 

[Jercules]

San Diego is now Norv Turner's team, so they ought to regress. LT has had his big years, and although he's still a monster he has, technically regressed. Whatever he does this year, chances are he's slightly worse than he was last year (and he hurt his knee too. AND he also disappeared when his team needed him the most. Don't forget that just because it didn't happen in the regular season).

ADP set the single game rushing record in his rookie season against a great defense. Did he have some bad games? Sure, he was a rookie. I mean, the guy was as good as he was AS A ROOKIE - I think it's generally safe to say people improve from their rookie years (especially when it comes to responding to injuries). LT, in his rookie year, was solid but not earth-shattering the way ADP was (and LT too wore down late in his rookie season).

Whoever compared this decision to the Lost characters is dead on. The only point I can make is, what more could you ask for from ADP? If a guy is coming in, and is destined to be the greatest ever, what more would he have to do in his rookie year to make you believe?

Especially if you're drafting for a keeper league, you really can't afford to pass up ADP.

 

[Polyethylene Bag]

You'll get no argument from me against taking ADP #1. He was just getting his feet wet last year as a rookie. Prepare to be amazed.

 

[gethugefast1]

CBSSports.com Headlines Preseason Outlook

Vikings' Jackson more confident: If the Vikings are going to fulfill their expectations of contending for the NFC North title and making a deep run in the playoffs, they need Tarvaris Jackson to be on target. The former second-round draft pick out of Division I-AA Alabama State is entering his third year in the Vikings' offense, and his second as starting quarterback. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, who thinks quarterbacks make a jump their third season, said the difference is noticeable in Jackson's progress. "There's no hesitation when he calls plays," new Vikings backup QB Gus Frerotte said. "He's very confident with himself and how he's handling himself in the huddle and with the other players. That's really good to see. That's all about being a leader and being a quarterback."

(Updated 06/09/2008).

Injury Report

No information available at this time (Updated 6/26/08).

Fantasy Analysis

While Jackson has shown flashes of being a reliable NFL starting QB, he has also flubbed opportunities to shine. Still, he had been working with a modest receiving corps as part of a run-first offense, so it's no surprise that he hasn't thrown for even 2,500 yards in two NFL seasons. With Bernard Berrian now in Minnesota, Jackson has the reliable deep-threat receiver to throw to, and defenses won't always be double-covering him with Minnesota's running game at the forefront. Fantasywise, he's strictly a No. 2 Fantasy QB as the potential is there for him to total over 3,000 yards and 16 or so touchdowns with some rushing stats piled on.

(Updated 06/09/2008).

05/28/2008 18:58

Vikings' Peterson, Jackson excused from 'optional' practice

Adrian Peterson and Tarvaris Jackson were excused from Wednesday's 'optional' practice for personal reasons, giving the Minnesota Vikings a chance to take extended looks at newcomers Gus Frerotte and Maurice Hicks.

Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson has a heavy responsibility this season because Minnesota is expected to be a Super Bowl contender, and Jackson is the leader. But while the third-year quarterback might make strides in leading the Vikings to victories, he is not going to become a legitimate Fantasy option overnight. Last year, Jackson played in 12 games, missing four due to injury, and was below average, with more interceptions than touchdowns. He got some help this offseason with the addition of WR Bernard Berrian, but he also saw the club add competition with the additions of veteran Gus Frerotte and rookie John David Booty. It's Jackson's job to lose, but he remains a low-end No. 2 Fantasy option, who should be used only during bye weeks or in the deepest of scoring systems. Remember, the Vikings are still a run-dominated team.

Vikings' Jackson more confident: If the Vikings are going to fulfill their expectations of contending for the NFC North title and making a deep run in the playoffs, they need Tarvaris Jackson to be on target. The former second-round draft pick out of Division I-AA Alabama State is entering his third year in the Vikings' offense, and his second as starting quarterback. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, who thinks quarterbacks make a jump their third season, said the difference is noticeable in Jackson's progress. "There's no hesitation when he calls plays," new Vikings backup QB Gus Frerotte said. "He's very confident with himself and how he's handling himself in the huddle and with the other players. That's really good to see. That's all about being a leader and being a quarterback."

(Updated 06/09/2008).

Injury Report

No information available at this time (Updated 6/26/08).

Fantasy Analysis

While Jackson has shown flashes of being a reliable NFL starting QB, he has also flubbed opportunities to shine. Still, he had been working with a modest receiving corps as part of a run-first offense, so it's no surprise that he hasn't thrown for even 2,500 yards in two NFL seasons. With Bernard Berrian now in Minnesota, Jackson has the reliable deep-threat receiver to throw to, and defenses won't always be double-covering him with Minnesota's running game at the forefront. Fantasywise, he's strictly a No. 2 Fantasy QB as the potential is there for him to total over 3,000 yards and 16 or so touchdowns with some rushing stats piled on.

(Updated 06/09/2008).

http://fantasynews.sportsline.com/fantasyf...yerpage/1107218

 

[twr]

i think you have to go with AP...

granted, he lost me the playoffs last season with his 3 yard performance... but hes amazing. i traded him in one league because i got great value... Sjax, 1st 09, and bowe...

then i traded sjax for lj, 1.2, and 1st 09.

heres the deal with peterson.

-- hes going to have monster games, and i mean MONSTER games, what will win you weeks just with him alone... hes much like chad johnson at WR... some weeks hes going to do nothing, others hes going to be amazing.

now, im not saying his going to be as hit or miss as johnson, but it will be close... you also have to factor in that teams dropped him in the draft due to his injury concerns... and he got injured last year... now tell me, would he still have all this hype if he tore his ACL instead of his LCL/PCL(cant remember which one he tore, i know he tore one, and lt tore the other)... i dont think he would... hes going to be amazing while he plays, but for how long. earl campbell here we come... if you happen to have him in your leagues... hold on and enjoy the ride while it lasts.

because even though i got great value for him, hes pretty much just one of those players you dont trade. IF he can have a 6 year career, he WILL be in the hall of fame.

 

[fsufan]

i can see all 3 end up being #1. I would still take LT b/c he is on the best team.

 

[David Yudkin]

LT has AVERAGED 20 ppg over his 111 game career. He's pretty much $$$. I can see some people potentially downgrading him because he was nicked up at the end of last year, but the guy is as close to a sure thing as they come.

ADP won't average 5.6 ypc again this year, so he will need to see the ball more to make up the difference. I agree that he should be able to do that based on missing a couple games last year, but he certainly does not have the long term track record that LT has. I am also leary of guys that get a lot of their production in a single game or two, as you never know when and if they will have more games like that.

I personally don't see Jackson as a #1 overall candidate and would take Westbrook over Jackson, but I could see a case for either guy in the next group of RBs after LT and ADP.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

San Diego is now Norv Turner's team, so they ought to regress. LT has had his big years, and although he's still a monster he has, technically regressed. Whatever he does this year, chances are he's slightly worse than he was last year (and he hurt his knee too. AND he also disappeared when his team needed him the most. Don't forget that just because it didn't happen in the regular season).

ADP set the single game rushing record in his rookie season against a great defense. Did he have some bad games? Sure, he was a rookie. I mean, the guy was as good as he was AS A ROOKIE - I think it's generally safe to say people improve from their rookie years (especially when it comes to responding to injuries). LT, in his rookie year, was solid but not earth-shattering the way ADP was (and LT too wore down late in his rookie season).

Whoever compared this decision to the Lost characters is dead on. The only point I can make is, what more could you ask for from ADP? If a guy is coming in, and is destined to be the greatest ever, what more would he have to do in his rookie year to make you believe?

Especially if you're drafting for a keeper league, you really can't afford to pass up ADP.

by regress you mean actually winning playoff games? LOLThe O that SD has been running since LT has gotten there has been Norv's. I expect the passing game to be even better next year.

LT Did Regress from a MVP and record setting TD season, he really had no where to go but regressto the mean. but his mean is off the charts.

LT is the safest play.

And to suggest a guy with an injured knee disappeared is wrong. Dude was hurt

 

[gianmarco]

LT has AVERAGED 20 ppg over his 111 game career. He's pretty much $$$. I can see some people potentially downgrading him because he was nicked up at the end of last year, but the guy is as close to a sure thing as they come.ADP won't average 5.6 ypc again this year, so he will need to see the ball more to make up the difference. I agree that he should be able to do that based on missing a couple games last year, but he certainly does not have the long term track record that LT has. I am also leary of guys that get a lot of their production in a single game or two, as you never know when and if they will have more games like that.I personally don't see Jackson as a #1 overall candidate and would take Westbrook over Jackson, but I could see a case for either guy in the next group of RBs after LT and ADP.

It really depends on the context we're talking about. Because in this specific instance, redraft vs. dynasty are two COMPLETELY different animals and many of you aren't making that distinction when citing your preference.If this is simply for 2008, you'll get no argument from me putting LT ahead of AP and I doubt you would from anyone.

 

[Banger]

LT has AVERAGED 20 ppg over his 111 game career. He's pretty much $$$. I can see some people potentially downgrading him because he was nicked up at the end of last year, but the guy is as close to a sure thing as they come.

ADP won't average 5.6 ypc again this year, so he will need to see the ball more to make up the difference. I agree that he should be able to do that based on missing a couple games last year, but he certainly does not have the long term track record that LT has. I am also leary of guys that get a lot of their production in a single game or two, as you never know when and if they will have more games like that.

I personally don't see Jackson as a #1 overall candidate and would take Westbrook over Jackson, but I could see a case for either guy in the next group of RBs after LT and ADP.

Agree with this totally. People like SJax a lot more than I do. He's definitely #4/5 RB but not #1. He's finished top 3 once (when he had nearly 450 touch's), has a bad o-line, only has one compliment on offense (Holt) and has a terrible defense. I just don't get the SJax love.....As far as the LT/ADP #1 debate, I'm generally risk averse with my early picks and comparing LT/ADP I think ADP carries a lot more risk. LT is as solid as they come and even if he finishes 2nd/3rd that's fine by me.

 

[unckeyherb]

Whoever compared this decision to the Lost characters is dead on. The only point I can make is, what more could you ask for from ADP? If a guy is coming in, and is destined to be the greatest ever, what more would he have to do in his rookie year to make you believe?Especially if you're drafting for a keeper league, you really can't afford to pass up ADP.

Not for nothing, but with my first pick I want consistency and basically never have to worry if this is the week he explodes for 200 yards and 3 TD's or 30 yards and 0 TDs. I am in a H2H league, so I try to avoid guys like CJ with inflated end of year totals and instead go with guys that will produce consistent numbers (albeit probably never putting up 50 point games). I never had LT but I drafted Addai as a rookie and will be keeping him again this year. While I have no delusions about who is a better/more talented NFL RB, this is not the NFL its Fantasy. If you do a breakdown of last years production between these two guys their end of year totals are nearly identical, Addai total points 224/14.00 average-Peterson total points 237/14.80. The thing to look at though is how these guys fare in head to head matchups (at least for my leagues scoring). Peterson vs. AddaiWeek 1: 24-19 ADPWeek 2: 11-14 AddaiWeek 3: 18-20 AddaiWeek 4: 11-20 AddaiWeek 5: bye-0 N/AWeek 6: 47-bye N/AWeek 7: 11-10 ADPWeek 8: 7-28 AddaiWeek 9: 52-30 ADPWeek 10: 5-6 AddaiWeek 11: 0-16 AddaiWeek 12: 0-11 AddaiWeek 13: 24-6 ADPWeek 14: 0-25 AddaiWeek 15: 20-9 ADPWeek 16: 4-8 AddaiSo in 14 weeks of head to head matchup (throwing out eachother's bye weeks) Addai outscored ADP 9-5. The thing to really look at here is how many times did your RB1 score 5 or less points for you? Addai 1-ADP 5. Again, this is not say that Addai is a better player than ADP, but in fantasy terms, as far as I'm concerned, give consistency with my first pick. I'll gamble on high risk/reward later. So, theres no way I'd take Peterson before the likes of LT, SJax, Westy and yes even Addai. I'm sure I'll get flamed for this, but: One man's opinion.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

LT over the past 6 seasons has finished 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 1st...I'll take that at #1 and know I have a top5 back over the risk of ADP...i'm not gaining anythign by taking him so why incur the risk?

And he still is going to split time at about 60/40 with Chester Taylor who is avg about $5 million a year...he signed for 4/$20 mill 2 seasons ago...and he had 1,000 yds and 7 TD in relief last season...who is behind LT exactly?

I love ADP too but he is not the #1 RB in FF right now.

 

[David Yudkin]

LT has AVERAGED 20 ppg over his 111 game career. He's pretty much $$$. I can see some people potentially downgrading him because he was nicked up at the end of last year, but the guy is as close to a sure thing as they come.ADP won't average 5.6 ypc again this year, so he will need to see the ball more to make up the difference. I agree that he should be able to do that based on missing a couple games last year, but he certainly does not have the long term track record that LT has. I am also leary of guys that get a lot of their production in a single game or two, as you never know when and if they will have more games like that.I personally don't see Jackson as a #1 overall candidate and would take Westbrook over Jackson, but I could see a case for either guy in the next group of RBs after LT and ADP.

It really depends on the context we're talking about. Because in this specific instance, redraft vs. dynasty are two COMPLETELY different animals and many of you aren't making that distinction when citing your preference.If this is simply for 2008, you'll get no argument from me putting LT ahead of AP and I doubt you would from anyone.

I meant redraft (and usually mean redraft unless stated otherwise). Certainly ADP should have a lot longer shelf life than LT at this point dynasty wise . . .

 

[Polyethylene Bag]

It really depends on the context we're talking about. Because in this specific instance, redraft vs. dynasty are two COMPLETELY different animals and many of you aren't making that distinction when citing your preference.If this is simply for 2008, you'll get no argument from me putting LT ahead of AP and I doubt you would from anyone.

I can't say I'd fault anyone for taking LT #1 in redraft this year, but I'd take ADP all day without hesitation. His ceiling is higher than anyone else's right now and the inevitable decline in production from LT has slowly begun.

 

[Jason Wood]

In PPR leagues, I can't make any case for Peterson 1st overall. In traditional redraft leagues? It's not hard to see it that way.

Now if someone started a thread that read: Why Jonathan Stewart should go #1 overall...now THAT would be going out on a limb.

 

[David Yudkin]

In PPR leagues, I can't make any case for Peterson 1st overall. In traditional redraft leagues? It's not hard to see it that way.

Now if someone started a thread that read: Why Jonathan Stewart should go #1 overall...now THAT would be going out on a limb.

How about a thread on "Tom Brady should go #1" (in a 6 pt per TD league)?

 

[Banger]

It really depends on the context we're talking about. Because in this specific instance, redraft vs. dynasty are two COMPLETELY different animals and many of you aren't making that distinction when citing your preference.If this is simply for 2008, you'll get no argument from me putting LT ahead of AP and I doubt you would from anyone.

I can't say I'd fault anyone for taking LT #1 in redraft this year, but I'd take ADP all day without hesitation. His ceiling is higher than anyone else's right now and the inevitable decline in production from LT has slowly begun.

Not sure that I see the same decline...'02 307 pts (3)'03 345 pts (2)'04 288 pts (3)'05 321 pts (3)'06 429 pts (1)'07 309 pts (1)Taking out his record breaking '06 year his avg fpts is 315 over the prior 4 years. Last year he had 309 pts which is less than two 2% off his '02-'05 average. I'm no mathmetician but I'm pretty sure that's statistically pretty insignificant.

 

[Polyethylene Bag]

It really depends on the context we're talking about. Because in this specific instance, redraft vs. dynasty are two COMPLETELY different animals and many of you aren't making that distinction when citing your preference.If this is simply for 2008, you'll get no argument from me putting LT ahead of AP and I doubt you would from anyone.

I can't say I'd fault anyone for taking LT #1 in redraft this year, but I'd take ADP all day without hesitation. His ceiling is higher than anyone else's right now and the inevitable decline in production from LT has slowly begun.

Not sure that I see the same decline...'02 307 pts (3)'03 345 pts (2)'04 288 pts (3)'05 321 pts (3)'06 429 pts (1)'07 309 pts (1)Taking out his record breaking '06 year his avg fpts is 315 over the prior 4 years. Last year he had 309 pts which is less than two 2% off his '02-'05 average. I'm no mathmetician but I'm pretty sure that's statistically pretty insignificant.

He has to decline at some point. I'm projecting it will begin this year. It's clear to me that he peaked in '06 and it's all downhill from here.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

It really depends on the context we're talking about. Because in this specific instance, redraft vs. dynasty are two COMPLETELY different animals and many of you aren't making that distinction when citing your preference.If this is simply for 2008, you'll get no argument from me putting LT ahead of AP and I doubt you would from anyone.

I can't say I'd fault anyone for taking LT #1 in redraft this year, but I'd take ADP all day without hesitation. His ceiling is higher than anyone else's right now and the inevitable decline in production from LT has slowly begun.

Not sure that I see the same decline...'02 307 pts (3)'03 345 pts (2)'04 288 pts (3)'05 321 pts (3)'06 429 pts (1)'07 309 pts (1)Taking out his record breaking '06 year his avg fpts is 315 over the prior 4 years. Last year he had 309 pts which is less than two 2% off his '02-'05 average. I'm no mathmetician but I'm pretty sure that's statistically pretty insignificant.

He has to decline at some point. I'm projecting it will begin this year. It's clear to me that he peaked in '06 and it's all downhill from here.

Downhill in a Norv Turner offense with no real back up, coming off an AFC Championship defeat, coming back with a fully loaded fully talented team from top to bottom? Guess I'm one of the few that thinks he could actually improve from last season's stats.

 

[TheFanatic]

It really depends on the context we're talking about. Because in this specific instance, redraft vs. dynasty are two COMPLETELY different animals and many of you aren't making that distinction when citing your preference.

If this is simply for 2008, you'll get no argument from me putting LT ahead of AP and I doubt you would from anyone.

I can't say I'd fault anyone for taking LT #1 in redraft this year, but I'd take ADP all day without hesitation. His ceiling is higher than anyone else's right now and the inevitable decline in production from LT has slowly begun.

Not sure that I see the same decline...'02 307 pts (3)

'03 345 pts (2)

'04 288 pts (3)

'05 321 pts (3)

'06 429 pts (1)

'07 309 pts (1)

Taking out his record breaking '06 year his avg fpts is 315 over the prior 4 years. Last year he had 309 pts which is less than two 2% off his '02-'05 average. I'm no mathmetician but I'm pretty sure that's statistically pretty insignificant.

He has to decline at some point. I'm projecting it will begin this year. It's clear to me that he peaked in '06 and it's all downhill from here.

No ####? What gave you that idea? Of course he peaked in 2006. But in 2007 he was 6 points below his yearly average of 315. Yeap, the guy really fell back to earth after 2006....

 

[LawFitz]

I think the AP to Chad Johnson comps are unfair. CJ has proven over several seasons now that he's a streaky high variance player week to week. And I certainly can appreciate the downgrading of a player like that in H2H leagues.

That said, I don't think AP will be that type of player going forward. Like I said in the original post, it took AP the first half of the season to wrestle the feature role away from Chester Taylor, who was playing solid but unspectacular as usual. Then as soon as the feature role was fully seized, the guy went down with the knee.

After missing 3.5 games, AP came back and was effective but did not have the same explosiveness he showed early. In fact I saw a different RB altogether. Yet during those last 5 games, the load was split in favor of AP showing that even tho he wasn't as good as earlier in the year, Childress had saddled up the kid.

So projecting this year, I am convinced that we're gonna see AP starting from day one and getting feature back opps. At a minimum I see a 65/35 split with Chester. This will balance out AP's scoring week to week and eliminate the high variance we saw last year assuming AP can stay healthy. And by that I mean eliminating the true stinkers while maintaining the blow up days.

Again, the guy I'm drafting is the healthy AP that was featured and blew up for 296 against the SD defense, not the guy who was splitting time earlier or the guy with the gimpy knee later. That guy I'll take #1 over LT and that's saying a lot b/c I do think LT is the man.

I like the gut vs. brain or faith vs. science analogies.

 

[Jason Wood]

In fairness to AP, I think the variance issue is misleading. He had variance because he wasn't given the touches he would've been given were it not for a) the Vikings ineffective passing attack and b) the presence of Chester Taylor and c) he was nicked up. The Vikes had no reason (thank goodness) for force AP into a huge workload when they had a guy like Taylor there to hold his own.

Consider that Peterson had 5 games of 20+ carries through Week 8, and only 1 after that. The guy led the league in rushing yards per game, averaged an astounding 5.6 yards per rush, and set the single game rushing record as a rookie. He's the goods.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think the AP to Chad Johnson comps are unfair. CJ has proven over several seasons now that he's a streaky high variance player week to week. And I certainly can appreciate the downgrading of a player like that in H2H leagues.That said, I don't think AP will be that type of player going forward. Like I said in the original post, it took AP the first half of the season to wrestle the feature role away from Chester Taylor, who was playing solid but unspectacular as usual. Then as soon as the feature role was fully seized, the guy went down with the knee.After missing 3.5 games, AP came back and was effective but did not have the same explosiveness he showed early. In fact I saw a different RB altogether. Yet during those last 5 games, the load was split in favor of AP showing that even tho he wasn't as good as earlier in the year, Childress had saddled up the kid.So projecting this year, I am convinced that we're gonna see AP starting from day one and getting feature back opps. At a minimum I see a 65/35 split with Chester. This will balance out AP's scoring week to week and eliminate the high variance we saw last year assuming AP can stay healthy. And by that I mean eliminating the true stinkers while maintaining the blow up days.Again, the guy I'm drafting is the healthy AP that was featured and blew up for 296 against the SD defense, not the guy who was splitting time earlier or the guy with the gimpy knee later. That guy I'll take #1 over LT and that's saying a lot b/c I do think LT is the man.I like the gut vs. brain or faith vs. science analogies.

IMO, this is a good debate and this isnt the first or last thread we'll see on it during the offseason.But to me having the #1 pick I would tend to go with the guy with the least amount of risk. That guy is LT.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

In fairness to AP, I think the variance issue is misleading. He had variance because he wasn't given the touches he would've been given were it not for a) the Vikings ineffective passing attack and b) the presence of Chester Taylor and c) he was nicked up. The Vikes had no reason (thank goodness) for force AP into a huge workload when they had a guy like Taylor there to hold his own.Consider that Peterson had 5 games of 20+ carries through Week 8, and only 1 after that. The guy led the league in rushing yards per game, averaged an astounding 5.6 yards per rush, and set the single game rushing record as a rookie. He's the goods.

which of the a,b & c will be different this year? maybe c?

 

[Jason Wood]

In fairness to AP, I think the variance issue is misleading. He had variance because he wasn't given the touches he would've been given were it not for a) the Vikings ineffective passing attack and b) the presence of Chester Taylor and c) he was nicked up. The Vikes had no reason (thank goodness) for force AP into a huge workload when they had a guy like Taylor there to hold his own.Consider that Peterson had 5 games of 20+ carries through Week 8, and only 1 after that. The guy led the league in rushing yards per game, averaged an astounding 5.6 yards per rush, and set the single game rushing record as a rookie. He's the goods.

which of the a,b & c will be different this year? maybe c?

I suspect b and c...Peterson is too talented to not be the bell cow as long as he's healthy. Not saying they'll forget about Chester, but I think Peterson will have 20 + carries in every game the Vikings can do so. Even with their woeful passing game, that defense and the quality of their running game should present many opportunities therein.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I can tell you that early on Childress didn't trust him. Chester Taylor was getting the starts and the majority of snaps and touches. It was originally about a 65/35 split in favor of Taylor, but as the weeks progressed and AP put on highlights with limited opportunities, Childress slowly started to give the kid a bigger and bigger share of the workload. By the eighth game when AP set the rushing record, AP had forced his way into feature status, logging 30 carries that day.

I don't mean to completely call you out here, but in this case I kind of have tn this point alone with regard to Childress' confidence in Taylor vs. Peterson, in the first 4 games on 2007, Peterson logged 76 carries while Taylor logged 11. Fact is, Taylor did not even play in Games 2 & 3.It seemed that Childress seemed determined to get Taylor on the field more in Games 5-8, but more out of concern for overworking his rookie RB. With that said, Peterson still outcarried Taylor by an 82:47 margin.While I don't doubt that Peterson is an elite back and warrants #1 pick consideration, the notion that Peterson earned Childress' confidence later in the season and as such in 2008, he'll have his confidence from the word go is flawed at best.What I will say though is that the rookie wall hit LT2 as well. It hit him earlier in the season though (around Game 5-6) and the next year, he improved his YPC by .9 points. If Peterson can improve his stamina (which I'm sure he will), I think you'll see him provide a more even performance throughout the course of the season and be better prepared to help during the play-offs. That said, a seasons worth of film on him will probably help opposing DC's limit him from having the 225+ yard blow-up games that were his rookie seasons hallmark.

 

[mozzy84]

I can tell you that early on Childress didn't trust him. Chester Taylor was getting the starts and the majority of snaps and touches. It was originally about a 65/35 split in favor of Taylor, but as the weeks progressed and AP put on highlights with limited opportunities, Childress slowly started to give the kid a bigger and bigger share of the workload. By the eighth game when AP set the rushing record, AP had forced his way into feature status, logging 30 carries that day.

I don't mean to completely call you out here, but in this case I kind of have tn this point alone with regard to Childress' confidence in Taylor vs. Peterson, in the first 4 games on 2007, Peterson logged 76 carries while Taylor logged 11. Fact is, Taylor did not even play in Games 2 & 3.

It seemed that Childress seemed determined to get Taylor on the field more in Games 5-8, but more out of concern for overworking his rookie RB. With that said, Peterson still outcarried Taylor by an 82:47 margin.

While I don't doubt that Peterson is an elite back and warrants #1 pick consideration, the notion that Peterson earned Childress' confidence later in the season and as such in 2008, he'll have his confidence from the word go is flawed at best.

What I will say though is that the rookie wall hit LT2 as well. It hit him earlier in the season though (around Game 5-6) and the next year, he improved his YPC by .9 points. If Peterson can improve his stamina (which I'm sure he will), I think you'll see him provide a more even performance throughout the course of the season and be better prepared to help during the play-offs. That said, a seasons worth of film on him will probably help opposing DC's limit him from having the 225+ yard blow-up games that were his rookie seasons hallmark.

I don't think its flawed at best, yea the number you posted make it look that way but watching the games I have no clue what was going on with childress and AD the first half of the year. as a vikings fan in was painfully obvious he wasn't utilizing him right imo and AD was still putting up numbers. the play calling was terrible as far as AD goes in this first half and it pretty much cost them a playoff spot, I expect that to change. The first green bay game and the dallas game come to mind right away where it was really bad...

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I don't think its flawed at best, yea the number you posted make it look that way but watching the games I have no clue what was going on with childress and AD the first half of the year. as a vikings fan in was painfully obvious he wasn't utilizing him right imo and AD was still putting up numbers. the play calling was terrible as far as AD goes in this first half and it pretty much cost them a playoff spot, I expect that to change. The first green bay game and the dallas game come to mind right away where it was really bad...

Maybe I have the (dis)advantage of just crunching the numbers and maybe you have the (dis)advantage of being a Vikings fan and watching the games.However, to state that you are using a rookie RB incorrectly during a period of the season where he is averaging 20 carries/game seems like someone content to run AD into the ground. You might argue AD was used poorly from a situational standpoint and how he inserted Chester Taylor into the line-up, but I would counter with 1036 rushing yards during this half of the season and a 6.6 YPC average.I think it's easy to say "use him more", but as an outsider looking in perhaps - I don't see how it can be argued that Childress mismanaged the situation.

 

[mozzy84]

I don't think its flawed at best, yea the number you posted make it look that way but watching the games I have no clue what was going on with childress and AD the first half of the year. as a vikings fan in was painfully obvious he wasn't utilizing him right imo and AD was still putting up numbers. the play calling was terrible as far as AD goes in this first half and it pretty much cost them a playoff spot, I expect that to change. The first green bay game and the dallas game come to mind right away where it was really bad...

Maybe I have the (dis)advantage of just crunching the numbers and maybe you have the (dis)advantage of being a Vikings fan and watching the games.However, to state that you are using a rookie RB incorrectly during a period of the season where he is averaging 20 carries/game seems like someone content to run AD into the ground. You might argue AD was used poorly from a situational standpoint and how he inserted Chester Taylor into the line-up, but I would counter with 1036 rushing yards during this half of the season and a 6.6 YPC average.I think it's easy to say "use him more", but as an outsider looking in perhaps - I don't see how it can be argued that Childress mismanaged the situation.

2 of his first 6 games he had a total of 13 touches each of those games, and one of those games I think he already had 100 at the half. Thats not managing AD right imo....

 

[David Yudkin]

People seem to have forgotten that ADP was a rookie. Teams don't know what to expect from them, and IMO they played him when and how they felt comfotable in playing him. I'm pretty sure the coaching staff was not worrying about any fantasy football rosters when they put him in the game or took him off the field last year. A lot of rookies sturggle to adjsut to the NFL, so I don't think that the Vikes brass did anything shockingly wrong or unexpected.

 

[sholditch]

Wow, you're suggesting that the consensus #2 overall pick should actually go no. 1? Slow down there buddy...

 

[LawFitz]

Wow, you're suggesting that the consensus #2 overall pick should actually go no. 1? Slow down there buddy...

lame

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I don't think its flawed at best, yea the number you posted make it look that way but watching the games I have no clue what was going on with childress and AD the first half of the year. as a vikings fan in was painfully obvious he wasn't utilizing him right imo and AD was still putting up numbers. the play calling was terrible as far as AD goes in this first half and it pretty much cost them a playoff spot, I expect that to change. The first green bay game and the dallas game come to mind right away where it was really bad...

Maybe I have the (dis)advantage of just crunching the numbers and maybe you have the (dis)advantage of being a Vikings fan and watching the games.However, to state that you are using a rookie RB incorrectly during a period of the season where he is averaging 20 carries/game seems like someone content to run AD into the ground. You might argue AD was used poorly from a situational standpoint and how he inserted Chester Taylor into the line-up, but I would counter with 1036 rushing yards during this half of the season and a 6.6 YPC average.I think it's easy to say "use him more", but as an outsider looking in perhaps - I don't see how it can be argued that Childress mismanaged the situation.

2 of his first 6 games he had a total of 13 touches each of those games, and one of those games I think he already had 100 at the half. Thats not managing AD right imo....

Were down from being mis-used and not having 'confidence' in Peterson for 1/2 a season to not getting used in 1.5 games properly. What is interesting is that those two games were against Dallas & Green Bay, hardly shrinking violets. But let's look a little closer at those two games.In the GB game, in the second half, the passing game broke down on two drives (two 3 & outs) when Green Bay started to take control of the game. By the time it got untracked, they were down 14. The opportunityIn the Dallas game, it looks like Minnesota simply didn't have the ball for that long in the first half as they were up 14-7 (on defensive TD, the other scored by Peterson). Only 9:18 of Time Of Possesion in that half. Sometimes an offense is out of sync and this game just in looking at the play-by-play appears to be this type of game.I just think that if we're down to saying Peterson wasn't used correctly in these portions of games - it's not an indication of a systematic problem or issue but issues related to random playcalling that can pop up at any time which from a projection standpoint should have no bearing.

 

[sholditch]

Wow, you're suggesting that the consensus #2 overall pick should actually go no. 1? Slow down there buddy...

lame

You need to bring it and say that Marion Barber should go no. 1, or something like that. Get crazy...

 

[LawFitz]

All these breakdowns are great and I'm glad we're doing them as it's refreshing my own recollection of the first half of last season. I did forget that CT was out a couple games. That said, I don't believe AP was the featured back until later in the season. That will not be the case this year.

Once he became featured the guy was sick until he got hurt. I'm not projecting an injury this year but you might want to given his hard running style.

And he was a rookie, who almost certainly hit a some sort of wall that will be less of an issue this year.

1000+ yards and 6.6 YPC through 8 games in which he could have been more/better utilized. I see no reason why he can't be this good or better again this year if healthy.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Before you blast me with LT and SJax love and tell me how they are much more consistent with a potentially much higher number of catches for PPR type formats, I've got to tell you that those two are right there also and are easily justified #1 selections.That said, here's my take as to why AP is the best choice. Last year I had AP on all my teams so I watched his progression very closely.I can tell you that early on Childress didn't trust him. Chester Taylor was getting the starts and the majority of snaps and touches. It was originally about a 65/35 split in favor of Taylor, but as the weeks progressed and AP put on highlights with limited opportunities, Childress slowly started to give the kid a bigger and bigger share of the workload. By the eighth game when AP set the rushing record, AP had forced his way into feature status, logging 30 carries that day.Unfortunately the next week he hurt his LCL and was not the same the rest of the year. He was able to come back for the last five games and while still effective, he wasn't nearly the explosive unstoppable monster I had seen in the first eight games.So what I am saying is that the guy who ran for 296 against a solid Chargers defense is the guy I'm drafting. His knee should be 100% and a full offseason will give Childress more confidence to let AP be the feature guy.Discount him a bit for injury risk due to his running style and a bit more for having Tarvaris as his QB but even with those discount factors that guy who blew the doors off the NFL for the first eight games last year is worth the #1 pick.Both LT and SJax have enough questions of their own for me to pick the best pure player of the three and that man is AP.

You are 100% right....their minds have been clouded.....I need to leave this site before "groupthink" hits me too.

 

[Manster]

ADP or LT2? gimme LT2 #1 in a redraft until he proves to me he isn't the best RB in the NFL.