Why do people get bent out of shape about rankings? (1 Viewer)

[Da Guru]

Every week in the Shark Pool there always are a number of threads complaining about where a player is ranked. These ranking are only a "guide" not gospel.

Where were Colston and Brees ranked last week? Get the picture?

The key is do your homework "And know the area a player should be ranked" I am sure the rankings here would be pretty close in most cases, and maybe not so close in others.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Easy. Because their players aren't ranked as high as they want them to be.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Actually my players Kitna and FWP are rated way way too high.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

Its just reflecting America as a whole. Most want someone else to do the work while we profit from it. I never look at rankings until I've done my own. Then only to see if I'm way out of whack with the "experts".

 

[Sack-Religious]

Easy. Because their players aren't ranked as high as they want them to be.

Generally speaking, objectivity has gone out the window for many a FF owner once the season starts.

 

[NoCheese]

I think the short answer is two-fold:

1) You look at a guy like Welker, who is ranked very low by all accounts, and you wonder if the FBG's know something you don't

2) In evaluating trades, it's difficult to gauge value when you feel the rankings are inaccurate

 

[JohnnyU]

I think the short answer is two-fold:1) You look at a guy like Welker, who is ranked very low by all accounts, and you wonder if the FBG's know something you don't2) In evaluating trades, it's difficult to gauge value when you feel the rankings are inaccurate

When guaguing a trade, one should use their own ranking. Problem solved.

 

[ThePittbully]

Easy. Because their players aren't ranked as high as they want them to be.

My biggest complaints are not that my players are ranked too low, but too high. Week in and week out when I read the rankings I feel like there is too much credence given to "big name" players and not to the guys who are actually getting it done. For instance, Gore has been ranked in the top ten almost every week this year, and maybe I'm missing something but his point total on my team sure doesn't look like thats where he's been ending up.And I know that these rankings are just guidelines and yadda yadda yadda. And thats how I use them, I make up my own mind about who I think will or wont do well on Sunday, but I do pay for the service so I (and anyone else who is a subscriber) have every right to complain if they think its not up to par

 

[djjosee]

Actually my players Kitna and FWP are rated way way too high.

I hear ya brotha ...

 

[grabnmcbutt]

Why can't people discuss differences of opinion with the 250 or rankings list on this discussion board without people getting all bent out of shape.

 

[EdwardCat]

Easy. Because their players aren't ranked as high as they want them to be.

I agree. And yes, I want MY players ranked regardless of rationale. Who doesn't? That is the nature of the game...we want to be the best.

 

[mad sweeney]

Easy. Because their players aren't ranked as high as they want them to be.

Or they had a gut feeling but went with the rankings instead and lost. It's easier to blame others and toss off words like "so-called" experts than to face the fact that they were the ones that screwed up. Apparently for $25 people expect complete accuracy in predictions.

 

[Challenge Everything]

Easy. Because their players aren't ranked as high as they want them to be.

Yes, I know too many people, when trying to make trades, point to FBGs rankings or 250 going forward or whatever else FBGs might say using their other information. Telling people you have the #1 ranked player going forward and trying to manipulate a trade in that manner is childish in my opinion. In reality none of them are correct. Yea, I have the #1-#10 ranked players on my team... who wants to trade me for them? Dumb.

 

[GreenNGold]

I think the short answer is two-fold:1) You look at a guy like Welker, who is ranked very low by all accounts, and you wonder if the FBG's know something you don't2) In evaluating trades, it's difficult to gauge value when you feel the rankings are inaccurate

When guaguing a trade, one should use their own ranking. Problem solved.

Not everyone has their own rankings. Some people only subscribe to this site so they can use FBG's rankings because they aren't able to dedicate themselves full time (like they are) to creating accurate rankings. We are paying for a service that we would not otherwise be able to do as effectively ourselves, and for rankings that we generally believe/hope will be as accurate as possible by people we consider to be experts and more knowledgable than ourselves. We are paying for their expert opinion, which should be better than ours (on average), unless you are some super-freak in which case you should have people paying you for your rankings. I don't see what is wrong with debating the rankings. If we see something that many think is off, I think it deserves discussion, if for no other reason to figure out why they are ranked there and/or if it deserves adjustment. Having Roetherlisberger ranked 18th this week is an example, despite being the 6th overall QB YTD. Is Baltimore's defense really that good to drop him below many mediocre QB's that he has been outperforming all year long? Not trying to debate his ranking here, just using that as an example.Another example, last week Favre was ranked 16th, Roethlisberger was around 20th the week before that. In hind-sight they outperformed their ranking. Was that just a fluke or is there something that can be learned here an applied to future rankings? If it is a fluke fine, but if there is a lesson that could be learned, then by all means lets discuss it. Or maybe there is something they are doing that I don't understand. Discussing it could teach myself and others why someone is ranked how they are and make us better at understanding what is going on as well. I understand that in hind-sight, they will not be 100% accurate, no one will ever be able to make 100% fool-proof rankings. But debating how they are ranked ahead of time is a good way to keep them honest and ensuring they continue to do as good of job as possible.

 

[Sweet Love]

Honestly, for the Top 250 going forward, I think it is because they do not understand how to use the product. If a producing player is hobbled for the next two weeks, his rating is going to go down further than if this was Week 2 due to the fact that there are only 7 weeks left in the typical FF season. I also think that people overlook things like matchups (again someone has three hard matchups in the next seven weeks) they are less desirable than they were earlier in the year) and playoff schedules (which hold more weight now than in week 2 or 3). Bottom line: If you don't know how to use it, it is useless.

This is my first year in five as a non-subscriber (not at all to do with content), and I really miss it.

 

[Morton Muffley]

First, this idea that "it's just a guide, don't take it as gospel" is silly. If you are gonna go through the trouble of ranking players, the attempt should be to get it right. I don't mean quibbling about whether a player should be QB 5 vs. QB8, but rather QB8 vs. QB18.

More importantly, I don't see these discussions as unhelpful. Sure, it may seem to be nothing more than complaining about their guys being too low (i.e. not getting the respect they deserve). But just as often, they are about some big name player being given too much respect. I like to use the Top 250 in order to get a sense of relative value for trades. I want to have a general understanding of what the market value of a player is because I love to go bargain hunting.

Also, I think you'll find that if an owner thinks a player is too highly ranked on the Top 250 then he is very likely too highly ranked (the opposite is not alwasy the case, obviously). Owners don't give up on players too easily, so if an owner is telling me that player X isn't worth what FBG thinks he is, then I'm gonna take notice. I don't expect FBG to have a good handle on every player, so I value these discussions.

Examples, mid-season two years ago I started a thread stating that at QB25 (or so) Kurt Warner was rated far too low and that given his situation (WRs, defense, offensive philosophy, upcoming schedule) he was a guaranteed top 10 QB going forward. If it weren't for the Top 250 I wouldn't have known that the world disagreed with me and wouldn't have bothered telling people to go get him. Hopefully some listened because he performed well down the strech.

Last year, I did the same with Big Ben (when he was inexpliacbly ranked as QB29 or so).

This year, I'm considering starting a thread to tell people that ADP (while a great RB) is not gonna produce as a top 10 RB down the stretch. He's got a coach who doesn't understand how to use him, no QB to keep defenses honest, no WRs that defenses need to worry about, and moderately tough schedule. I own him and would love to trade him (+ a good WR) for Willie Parker (rated slightly higher), but it just won't happen because ADP just isn't worth what FBG thinks he's worth.

Conversely, Tenn defense continues to get no respect from FBG while up until this week, FBG thought Minn was a top 3 D/ST (I own both and have viewed Tenn as the better D/ST for at least 3 weeks).

Lastly, I'd suggest that there might be some value in FBG creating a Top 250 on Tues that members can quantitatively change based on their own personal feelings. For example, I'd suggest moving Tenn up 10 spots and Minn down 5. Wouldn't it be interesting if the mass of members here could make changes to the Top 250 based on their intimate knowledge in order to produce their own Wisdom-of-Crowds Version. Just an idea as I have no idea how this would be executed, but I think it's worth considering.

As always, just my opinion.

 

[Da Guru]

First, this idea that "it's just a guide, don't take it as gospel" is silly. If you are gonna go through the trouble of ranking players, the attempt should be to get it right. I don't mean quibbling about whether a player should be QB 5 vs. QB8, but rather QB8 vs. QB18. More importantly, I don't see these discussions as unhelpful. Sure, it may seem to be nothing more than complaining about their guys being too low (i.e. not getting the respect they deserve). But just as often, they are about some big name player being given too much respect. I like to use the Top 250 in order to get a sense of relative value for trades. I want to have a general understanding of what the market value of a player is because I love to go bargain hunting. Also, I think you'll find that if an owner thinks a player is too highly ranked on the Top 250 then he is very likely too highly ranked (the opposite is not alwasy the case, obviously). Owners don't give up on players too easily, so if an owner is telling me that player X isn't worth what FBG thinks he is, then I'm gonna take notice. I don't expect FBG to have a good handle on every player, so I value these discussions.Examples, mid-season two years ago I started a thread stating that at QB25 (or so) Kurt Warner was rated far too low and that given his situation (WRs, defense, offensive philosophy, upcoming schedule) he was a guaranteed top 10 QB going forward. If it weren't for the Top 250 I wouldn't have known that the world disagreed with me and wouldn't have bothered telling people to go get him. Hopefully some listened because he performed well down the strech.Last year, I did the same with Big Ben (when he was inexpliacbly ranked as QB29 or so).This year, I'm considering starting a thread to tell people that ADP (while a great RB) is not gonna produce as a top 10 RB down the stretch. He's got a coach who doesn't understand how to use him, no QB to keep defenses honest, no WRs that defenses need to worry about, and moderately tough schedule. I own him and would love to trade him (+ a good WR) for Willie Parker (rated slightly higher), but it just won't happen because ADP just isn't worth what FBG thinks he's worth.Conversely, Tenn defense continues to get no respect from FBG while up until this week, FBG thought Minn was a top 3 D/ST (I own both and have viewed Tenn as the better D/ST for at least 3 weeks).Lastly, I'd suggest that there might be some value in FBG creating a Top 250 on Tues that members can quantitatively change based on their own personal feelings. For example, I'd suggest moving Tenn up 10 spots and Minn down 5. Wouldn't it be interesting if the mass of members here could make changes to the Top 250 based on their intimate knowledge in order to produce their own Wisdom-of-Crowds Version. Just an idea as I have no idea how this would be executed, but I think it's worth considering.As always, just my opinion.

Do you have your own site? Also what players were you wrong about??

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Because people pay for the service, they expect the results to be accurate. On the face of it, that's not asking for too much.

The problem is, we're all conjecturing on future performance. No one person, site or service will be able to predict future performance with 100% accuracy.

That said, the top 250 forward does not seem to be generated from scratch each week. It looks like it is generated from last week's sheet, with some slight adjustments for players up and down. The problem there is, the list can get stale. Perhaps it is generated from scratch each week, however it does not seem that way.

For the weekly rankings, it seems much more important IMO to look at the projections, not necessarily the rank number. Take the rankings for what they're worth by factoring in the point differential between the ranked players. When the difference between the 15th and 36th ranked WR is only 3 points, that implies the model is built around statistical means, low variance and highly depends on falling within the bell curve when ranking players. You don't see Jennings with a 20 point week, you see him with a 8.8 point week because that's his average. It doesn't predict which players will blow up that week, who could? (now I'd pay for that service in a heartbeat!)

I do use the weekly projections and top 250 forward to gauge player value. They serve their purpose, just know what they are and what the limits are of the model.

 

[(unwelcomed)GUEST]

Rather than looking at as posters "getting bent-out-of-shape" look at as simply a discussion of value. I think most here look for the rankings and then "noodle" them a bit. If BigBen and Favre, in my league's scoring format, are producing much better than 10 QBs ranked in front of them; I'm going to wonder why. It may not be that posters are taking shots at FBGs or getting bent, but rather discussing a players worth going forward. You have to remember: Dynasty, ReDraft, some morph of both, 2 QB leagues, 1 rb 3 wr 1 te w/ a flex, etc, etc

 

[Morton Muffley]

First, this idea that "it's just a guide, don't take it as gospel" is silly. If you are gonna go through the trouble of ranking players, the attempt should be to get it right. I don't mean quibbling about whether a player should be QB 5 vs. QB8, but rather QB8 vs. QB18. More importantly, I don't see these discussions as unhelpful. Sure, it may seem to be nothing more than complaining about their guys being too low (i.e. not getting the respect they deserve). But just as often, they are about some big name player being given too much respect. I like to use the Top 250 in order to get a sense of relative value for trades. I want to have a general understanding of what the market value of a player is because I love to go bargain hunting. Also, I think you'll find that if an owner thinks a player is too highly ranked on the Top 250 then he is very likely too highly ranked (the opposite is not alwasy the case, obviously). Owners don't give up on players too easily, so if an owner is telling me that player X isn't worth what FBG thinks he is, then I'm gonna take notice. I don't expect FBG to have a good handle on every player, so I value these discussions.Examples, mid-season two years ago I started a thread stating that at QB25 (or so) Kurt Warner was rated far too low and that given his situation (WRs, defense, offensive philosophy, upcoming schedule) he was a guaranteed top 10 QB going forward. If it weren't for the Top 250 I wouldn't have known that the world disagreed with me and wouldn't have bothered telling people to go get him. Hopefully some listened because he performed well down the strech.Last year, I did the same with Big Ben (when he was inexpliacbly ranked as QB29 or so).This year, I'm considering starting a thread to tell people that ADP (while a great RB) is not gonna produce as a top 10 RB down the stretch. He's got a coach who doesn't understand how to use him, no QB to keep defenses honest, no WRs that defenses need to worry about, and moderately tough schedule. I own him and would love to trade him (+ a good WR) for Willie Parker (rated slightly higher), but it just won't happen because ADP just isn't worth what FBG thinks he's worth.Conversely, Tenn defense continues to get no respect from FBG while up until this week, FBG thought Minn was a top 3 D/ST (I own both and have viewed Tenn as the better D/ST for at least 3 weeks).Lastly, I'd suggest that there might be some value in FBG creating a Top 250 on Tues that members can quantitatively change based on their own personal feelings. For example, I'd suggest moving Tenn up 10 spots and Minn down 5. Wouldn't it be interesting if the mass of members here could make changes to the Top 250 based on their intimate knowledge in order to produce their own Wisdom-of-Crowds Version. Just an idea as I have no idea how this would be executed, but I think it's worth considering.As always, just my opinion.

Do you have your own site? Also what players were you wrong about??

I've been wrong quite a bit (I drafted S. Moss this year after hating on him over the past 3 years), but the Warner and Big Ben calls were the only onese I made publicly (i.e. started a thread to point out how undervalued they were) in the past two years, so it's easy to be right when you can cherry pick like that. And obviously this is the time of year when someone who is paying attention can have enough evidence to make these calls. Pre-season calls are much tougher.

 

[Loopdog]

Because people want Footballguys to accurately project every game, every week with no mistakes anywhere

It's ######ed. You pay for the service as a helper, not as an end all be all. If you want someone else to tell you exactly how to run your team you shouldn't even bother playing. It's nice to read suggestions, but people who get mad because FBG's 19th rated player that week outscores their 4th rated player that week seriously need help. And not fantasy help, personal help.

 

[DoGdr]

I have never been one to get angry over rankings (what would the point of that be?) but I have to admit from time to time I get puzzled by them. For example this week FWP dropped from RB4 to RB 10 after having a 100+ game and a goaline score. That is a pretty drastic drop in value without much explaination.

As a avid top 250 follower I do use the ranking to evauate trades and to try to figure out how to put together reasonable offers. Of course I am going to act of my own opinions but it helps to know if I am getting to far away from thier ranking. I use preseason projection the same way to give my self a check for getting too up or down on someone.

I have to say I really like the custom top 200 this year that factors in your scoring system which of course make a huge difference i terms of valuing players.

 

[Da Guru]

I have never been one to get angry over rankings (what would the point of that be?) but I have to admit from time to time I get puzzled by them. For example this week FWP dropped from RB4 to RB 10 after having a 100+ game and a goaline score. That is a pretty drastic drop in value without much explaination. As a avid top 250 follower I do use the ranking to evauate trades and to try to figure out how to put together reasonable offers. Of course I am going to act of my own opinions but it helps to know if I am getting to far away from thier ranking. I use preseason projection the same way to give my self a check for getting too up or down on someone.I have to say I really like the custom top 200 this year that factors in your scoring system which of course make a huge difference i terms of valuing players.

If you have FWP on your team why do you need an explanation? Are you going to start Tatum Bell because FWP dropped a few notches?

 

[-OZ-]

Because people pay for the service, they expect the results to be accurate. On the face of it, that's not asking for too much.The problem is, we're all conjecturing on future performance. No one person, site or service will be able to predict future performance with 100% accuracy. That said, the top 250 forward does not seem to be generated from scratch each week. It looks like it is generated from last week's sheet, with some slight adjustments for players up and down. The problem there is, the list can get stale. Perhaps it is generated from scratch each week, however it does not seem that way.For the weekly rankings, it seems much more important IMO to look at the projections, not necessarily the rank number. Take the rankings for what they're worth by factoring in the point differential between the ranked players. When the difference between the 15th and 36th ranked WR is only 3 points, that implies the model is built around statistical means, low variance and highly depends on falling within the bell curve when ranking players. You don't see Jennings with a 20 point week, you see him with a 8.8 point week because that's his average. It doesn't predict which players will blow up that week, who could? (now I'd pay for that service in a heartbeat!)I do use the weekly projections and top 250 forward to gauge player value. They serve their purpose, just know what they are and what the limits are of the model.

Good post, and I agree with most of it. I disagree with your implication that one week should hold a lot of weight with the future projections. Sure, there will be times when it matters, but too many players go off for a week or two, just to crash later, or struggle for a week or 2 (or if your name is Lee Evans, 6) but hold good future production potential. Completely agreed that projections >>> rank. A point that seems simple, but is lost on many.

 

[grabnmcbutt]

I have never been one to get angry over rankings (what would the point of that be?) but I have to admit from time to time I get puzzled by them. For example this week FWP dropped from RB4 to RB 10 after having a 100+ game and a goaline score. That is a pretty drastic drop in value without much explaination. As a avid top 250 follower I do use the ranking to evauate trades and to try to figure out how to put together reasonable offers. Of course I am going to act of my own opinions but it helps to know if I am getting to far away from thier ranking. I use preseason projection the same way to give my self a check for getting too up or down on someone.I have to say I really like the custom top 200 this year that factors in your scoring system which of course make a huge difference i terms of valuing players.

If you have FWP on your team why do you need an explanation? Are you going to start Tatum Bell because FWP dropped a few notches?

No but maybe I have Larry Johnson and a trade offer for Parker. The 250 forward list might be ONE of the methods I use to evaluate such a potential trade. Note - I said One of the methods not the only method.

 

[wraith5]

My only current issue with the top 250 is that Wynn is ranked and he's on the IR... seems like a significant oversight. It also clearly effects where Grant is ranked, which whether I agree with or not, would be nice to see...

Part of the value of this place, when it isn't lost among the toolness so many choose to bring here, is discussion and debate as to whether certain players should be valued at a certain level. Instead of rants about "deciding for yourself" or "Dodds is out of his mind," it would be refreshing for folks to just debate once in a while.

 

[BeaverCleaver]

Because they have no life.

 

[BusterTBronco]

Because they have no life.

That's enough out of you, Theodore.

 

[BeaverCleaver]

Because they have no life.

That's enough out of you, Theodore.

Truth hurts.

 

[BusterTBronco]

Hey Beav,

Could you tell me about the time that the "Lightning 11" played the "Grant Avenue Tigers" at Metzger Field?

That was a doozy!

 

[mad sweeney]

I have never been one to get angry over rankings (what would the point of that be?) but I have to admit from time to time I get puzzled by them. For example this week FWP dropped from RB4 to RB 10 after having a 100+ game and a goaline score. That is a pretty drastic drop in value without much explaination. As a avid top 250 follower I do use the ranking to evauate trades and to try to figure out how to put together reasonable offers. Of course I am going to act of my own opinions but it helps to know if I am getting to far away from thier ranking. I use preseason projection the same way to give my self a check for getting too up or down on someone.I have to say I really like the custom top 200 this year that factors in your scoring system which of course make a huge difference i terms of valuing players.

If you have FWP on your team why do you need an explanation? Are you going to start Tatum Bell because FWP dropped a few notches?

No, but it's a valid question and would help to understand the top 250 in a bigger sense and apply it to the way other players are ranked. I'd be pretty curious to see how a guy gets those points and dispels a GL back rumor and yet drops 6 spots.