Why have the Seahawks been bet to -9.5? (1 Viewer)

[TwinTurbo]

Someone explain to me why I should not put a wager on the Redskins +10 here. I am not an experienced gambler, so maybe I am missing something here. But how are the Seahawks getting this much love from the bettors? I would have expected this line to move down a bit as the game got closer, but instead it has moved up a point. I am not a fan of either team but here's how I see it:1. Redskins already won in Week 4 in WAS.2. Redskins have only lost 1 game this year by more than 7 points. 3. Seahawks margin of victory against teams with a winning record was 3 points (not counting the Indy 2nd stringer game).There's a good deal of other statistical analysis that we could discuss, but I was wondering how some of the other FBG'ers are betting this game?

 

[redman]

Someone explain to me why I should not put a wager on the Redskins +10 here. I am not an experienced gambler, so maybe I am missing something here. But how are the Seahawks getting this much love from the bettors? I would have expected this line to move down a bit as the game got closer, but instead it has moved up a point.

I am not a fan of either team but here's how I see it:

1. Redskins already won in Week 4 in WAS.

2. Redskins have only lost 1 game this year by more than 7 points.

3. Seahawks margin of victory against teams with a winning record was 3 points (not counting the Indy 2nd stringer game).

There's a good deal of other statistical analysis that we could discuss, but I was wondering how some of the other FBG'ers are betting this game?

I don't get it either.

 

[jwvdcw]

I agree with you, and I'd take the Skins. However, the reasoning behind the huge line are:-Redskins have won 6 must win games in a row- they are tired and worn out. The Seahawks have been resting for a month.-Home field advantage-Skins offense showing so poorly last week influenced the line-People simply don't like the Skins and as silly as it sounds, people often bet based upon feelings(remember Vegas is just trying to get equal action here).-injuries

 

[myhousekey]

Some other reasons for that line:Seattle is 8-0 at home, averaging just under 30 points per game.Washington is 4-4 on the road, averaging just over 20 points per game.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Unrelated to your bet...here is a little tid bit.When teams have a spread greater than 7.5, they have a record of like 65-11.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Not counting the Indy game, Seattle was 7-0 at home with an average score of 30-13.Washington was 4-4 on the road with an average score of 20-22.At home, Seattle's expected winning percentage based on their points scored and points allowed numbers was .880 [that equates to a 14-2 record].On the road, Washington's expected winning percentaged based on their points scored and points allowed numbers was .447 [that equates to a 7-9 record].It's arguable that we've got a 14-2 type team that's well-rested and has had two weeks to prepare. They're facing a 7-9 team that has it's best offensive player doubtful to make an impact and is not well-rested.

 

[-OZ-]

Not counting the Indy game, Seattle was 7-0 at home with an average score of 30-13.

Washington was 4-4 on the road with an average score of 20-22.

At home, Seattle's expected winning percentage based on their points scored and points allowed numbers was .880 [that equates to a 14-2 record].

On the road, Washington's expected winning percentaged based on their points scored and points allowed numbers was .447 [that equates to a 7-9 record].

It's arguable that we've got a 14-2 type team that's well-rested and has had two weeks to prepare. They're facing a 7-9 team that has it's best offensive player doubtful to make an impact and is not well-rested.

While I'd be hesitant to go with a 10 point line in any playoff game, this can easily be a 35-10 game. If I were to bet, it would be on Seattle -10.

 

[jwvdcw]

Not counting the Indy game, Seattle was 7-0 at home with an average score of 30-13.

Not counting the Indy game what was their average home margin of victory against +.500 opponents? 3 points. I think thats more relevant than how badly they beat up on the Arizonas and San Franciscos of the league.

 

[jwvdcw]

On the road, Washington's expected winning percentaged based on their points scored and points allowed numbers was .447 [that equates to a 7-9 record].

It's arguable that we've got a 14-2 type team that's well-rested and has had two weeks to prepare. They're facing a 7-9 team that has it's best offensive player doubtful to make an impact and is not well-rested.

Team A had the 2nd hardest schedule in the league and finished 10-6. Team B had the easiest schedule in the entire league and finished 13-3. Yet you're trying to argue that Team A really should only be 7-9 and Team B should be 14-2? Sorry I just don't see it. Yes, Washington won a lot of close games- thats the mark of a well coached team. Thats not a fluke.

 

[Chase Stuart]

On the road, Washington's expected winning percentaged based on their points scored and points allowed numbers was .447 [that equates to a 7-9 record].

It's arguable that we've got a 14-2 type team that's well-rested and has had two weeks to prepare. They're facing a 7-9 team that has it's best offensive player doubtful to make an impact and is not well-rested.

Team A had the 2nd hardest schedule in the league and finished 10-6. Team B had the easiest schedule in the entire league and finished 13-3. Yet you're trying to argue that Team A really should only be 7-9 and Team B should be 14-2? Sorry I just don't see it. Yes, Washington won a lot of close games- thats the mark of a well coached team. Thats not a fluke.

You're looking at two different things: total records and home/road records. There's no denying that Washington was anything but average on the road this year.They lost:

@Denver (8-0)

@Kansas City (7-1)

@New York (7-1)

@Tampa Bay (6-2)

They won:

@Dallas (5-3)

@St. Louis (3-5)

@Arizona (3-5)

@Philadelphia (4-4)

Washington was an average team on the road. Now they're without their best offensive player.

Seattle was excellent at home, perhaps the best team in the NFL. They were dominant, which is more the mark of a great team than winning the close ones.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Yes, Washington won a lot of close games- thats the mark of a well coached team. Thats not a fluke.

Washington's record in games decided by 7 points or less: 5-5Washington's record in games decided by 3 points or less: 3-3

Washington's record in close games was the mark of a mediocre team.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Not counting the Indy game, Seattle was 7-0 at home with an average score of 30-13.

Not counting the Indy game what was their average home margin of victory against +.500 opponents? 3 points. I think thats more relevant than how badly they beat up on the Arizonas and San Franciscos of the league.

What data do you have to support that proposition?

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm glad I don't have to put the mortgage payment on this game.

If you told me Seattle will win 31-10, I could see it.

If you told me Washington will win 23-20, I could see it.

Pasadena for me. This is a very tough weekend. I'm going easy.

Maybe just do a 7 point teaser using Indy -2½ & Carolina +10.

 

[jwvdcw]

Not counting the Indy game, Seattle was 7-0 at home with an average score of 30-13.

Not counting the Indy game what was their average home margin of victory against +.500 opponents? 3 points. I think thats more relevant than how badly they beat up on the Arizonas and San Franciscos of the league.

What data do you have to support that proposition?

Since we are analyzing how we think Seattle will play against a good team today at home, I think its more important to look at how they've played against good teams at home in the past rather than to look at their entire schedule, most of which was made up of games against weak teams.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Not counting the Indy game, Seattle was 7-0 at home with an average score of 30-13.

Not counting the Indy game what was their average home margin of victory against +.500 opponents? 3 points. I think thats more relevant than how badly they beat up on the Arizonas and San Franciscos of the league.

What data do you have to support that proposition?

Since we are analyzing how we think Seattle will play against a good team today at home, I think its more important to look at how they've played against good teams at home in the past rather than to look at their entire schedule, most of which was made up of games against weak teams.

I understood what you said the first time. I was looking for some data that showed how a team did in fewer games against similar opponents was more meaningful than how a team did in more games against all opponents.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm glad I don't have to put the mortgage payment on this game.

If you told me Seattle will win 31-10, I could see it.

If you told me Washington will win 23-20, I could see it.

Pasadena for me. This is a very tough weekend. I'm going easy.

Maybe just do a 7 point teaser using Indy -2½ & Carolina +10.

I don't think this weekend is too hard (usually a sure sign that I'll be 0-4).I like the home teams to all cover, except Indy.

 

[jwvdcw]

Not counting the Indy game, Seattle was 7-0 at home with an average score of 30-13.

Not counting the Indy game what was their average home margin of victory against +.500 opponents? 3 points. I think thats more relevant than how badly they beat up on the Arizonas and San Franciscos of the league.

What data do you have to support that proposition?

Since we are analyzing how we think Seattle will play against a good team today at home, I think its more important to look at how they've played against good teams at home in the past rather than to look at their entire schedule, most of which was made up of games against weak teams.

I understood what you said the first time. I was looking for some data that showed how a team did in fewer games against similar opponents was more meaningful than how a team did in more games against all opponents.

No, I don't have data, but I think its common sense.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Not counting the Indy game, Seattle was 7-0 at home with an average score of 30-13.

Not counting the Indy game what was their average home margin of victory against +.500 opponents? 3 points. I think thats more relevant than how badly they beat up on the Arizonas and San Franciscos of the league.

What data do you have to support that proposition?

Since we are analyzing how we think Seattle will play against a good team today at home, I think its more important to look at how they've played against good teams at home in the past rather than to look at their entire schedule, most of which was made up of games against weak teams.

I understood what you said the first time. I was looking for some data that showed how a team did in fewer games against similar opponents was more meaningful than how a team did in more games against all opponents.

No, I don't have data, but I think its common sense.

Fair enough. We'll agree to disagree.

 

[surferskin]

the only factor you need to look at is which uniforms the skins wear today. Skins wearing white on white = 6-0, 2-0 at home and 4-0 on the road. you'd have to be drunk to not bet on the skinz today.

 

[LHUCKS]

The Skins regular season road record is almost inconsequential given the beat-down they just put on a very good TB team in their house.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Skins regular season road record is almost inconsequential given the beat-down they just put on a very good TB team in their house.

I strongly disagree with both of these points.

 

[ericttspikes]

Since all the talk this week from Skin's pumpers is that the line would probably narrow, I want to know what's up with the Skins fans? Are there any? Do they wager on games? Weird line. Maybe the Giants/Philly/Dallas fans hate them so much they are swarming on the Seattle -9.5.

 

[jwvdcw]

The Skins regular season road record is almost inconsequential given the beat-down they just put on a very good TB team in their house.

I strongly disagree with both of these points.

I only saw one point being made there.You disagree that recent games are more likely to predict the future than the entire season? Wow, again I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

[jwvdcw]

Since all the talk this week from Skin's pumpers is that the line would probably narrow, I want to know what's up with the Skins fans? Are there any? Do they wager on games? Weird line. Maybe the Giants/Philly/Dallas fans hate them so much they are swarming on the Seattle -9.5.

No, I don't wager on my home team ever. Tough to separate rational thought and homerism.

 

[redman]

Since all the talk this week from Skin's pumpers is that the line would probably narrow, I want to know what's up with the Skins fans? Are there any? Do they wager on games? Weird line. Maybe the Giants/Philly/Dallas fans hate them so much they are swarming on the Seattle -9.5.

Silly comment. I don't bet on my team.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Skins regular season road record is almost inconsequential given the beat-down they just put on a very good TB team in their house.

I strongly disagree with both of these points.

I only saw one point being made there.You disagree that recent games are more likely to predict the future than the entire season? Wow, again I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

You're right, I missed one.I strongly disagree with three of his points.

 

[Raider Nation]

The Skins regular season road record is almost inconsequential given the beat-down they just put on a very good TB team in their house.

I strongly disagree with both of these points.

I only saw one point being made there.You disagree that recent games are more likely to predict the future than the entire season? Wow, again I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

Point #1 - Their road record is not inconsequential.Point #2 - Washington's victory was far from a "beatdown" in Tampa.

HTH

 

[TwinTurbo]

Unrelated to your bet...here is a little tid bit.

When teams have a spread greater than 7.5, they have a record of like 65-11.

When you say a record of 65-11, is that the W-L record or is that the record against the spread? I assume you mean W-L record.In this case, I do agree that Seattle will win the game, but I see it being much closer than 10 points.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Skins regular season road record is almost inconsequential given the beat-down they just put on a very good TB team in their house.

I strongly disagree with both of these points.

I only saw one point being made there.You disagree that recent games are more likely to predict the future than the entire season? Wow, again I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

Point #1 - Their road record is not inconsequential.Point #2 - Washington's victory was far from a "beatdown" in Tampa.

HTH

Point 3: TB is a very good team.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Not counting the Indy game, Seattle was 7-0 at home with an average score of 30-13.

Washington was 4-4 on the road with an average score of 20-22.

At home, Seattle's expected winning percentage based on their points scored and points allowed numbers was .880 [that equates to a 14-2 record].

On the road, Washington's expected winning percentaged based on their points scored and points allowed numbers was .447 [that equates to a 7-9 record].

It's arguable that we've got a 14-2 type team that's well-rested and has had two weeks to prepare. They're facing a 7-9 team that has it's best offensive player doubtful to make an impact and is not well-rested.

Seattle only played 4 teams at home that were above .500. ATL, DAL, NYG, and IND. The avg score of these games was 21-15. And that's including the Indy second stringer game. Redskins played 5 teams on the road that were above .500. DAL, DEN, KC, NYG, and TB. They finished 1-4, but every game was decided by one score or less except for the NYG game which was a blowout. They did beat NYG later at home. As you said, their total avg road score was 20-22 and that includes the 0-36 blowout game by NYG.

My point is that it would seem likely that this game will be decided by 7 points or less and that Seattle will win but Washington will cover at +10.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Not counting the Indy game, Seattle was 7-0 at home with an average score of 30-13.

Washington was 4-4 on the road with an average score of 20-22.

At home, Seattle's expected winning percentage based on their points scored and points allowed numbers was .880 [that equates to a 14-2 record].

On the road, Washington's expected winning percentaged based on their points scored and points allowed numbers was .447 [that equates to a 7-9 record].

It's arguable that we've got a 14-2 type team that's well-rested and has had two weeks to prepare. They're facing a 7-9 team that has it's best offensive player doubtful to make an impact and is not well-rested.

Seattle only played 4 teams at home that were above .500. ATL, DAL, NYG, and IND. The avg score of these games was 21-15. And that's including the Indy second stringer game. Redskins played 5 teams on the road that were above .500. DAL, DEN, KC, NYG, and TB. They finished 1-4, but every game was decided by one score or less except for the NYG game which was a blowout. They did beat NYG later at home. As you said, their total avg road score was 20-22 and that includes the 0-36 blowout game by NYG.

My point is that it would seem likely that this game will be decided by 7 points or less and that Seattle will win but Washington will cover at +10.

The average score against DAL, DEN, KC, NYG and TB was a Skins loss by 9. Furthermore, I think Seattle is better than the average of those five teams.Lastly, Seattle is healthy and coming off three weeks of rest. They should play better than they did in any of those other home games against .500+ teams.

 

[LHUCKS]

Chase,I just put some cash down on the Hawks -9.5. You totally changed my mind(doesn't happen very often.That being said, I still believe that TB is a good team with Cadillac.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase,

I just put some cash down on the Hawks -9.5. You totally changed my mind(doesn't happen very often.)

GL GB.I'll root with you. I'm rooting for the 'Hawks for Shick!

Last prediction: Seattle rested + at home + Redskins tired = Shaun Alexander has at least 50 rushing yards in one quarter. That Skins DL will wear down at some point (probably the 4th Q, unless it's a blowout).

 

[Patoons]

The average score against DAL, DEN, KC, NYG and TB was a Skins loss by 9. Furthermore, I think Seattle is better than the average of those five teams.

This is heavily skewed by Washington's 49-0 beating handed by the Giants. That is a serious outlier.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The average score against DAL, DEN, KC, NYG and TB was a Skins loss by 9. Furthermore, I think Seattle is better than the average of those five teams.

This is heavily skewed by Washington's 49-0 beating handed by the Giants. That is a serious outlier.

It was 36-0. That's the problem with looking at small samples (I'd advise against it, which is why I'd prefer not to look just at the .500+ teams).

 

[Patoons]

The average score against DAL, DEN, KC, NYG and TB was a Skins loss by 9. Furthermore, I think Seattle is better than the average of those five teams.

This is heavily skewed by Washington's 49-0 beating handed by the Giants. That is a serious outlier.

It was 36-0. That's the problem with looking at small samples (I'd advise against it, which is why I'd prefer not to look just at the .500+ teams).

I agree- there are several other reasons to go with the 'hawks today but I don't think this is the best. Many of your other supporting reasons are solid.Good luck today fellas.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The average score against DAL, DEN, KC, NYG and TB was a Skins loss by 9. Furthermore, I think Seattle is better than the average of those five teams.

This is heavily skewed by Washington's 49-0 beating handed by the Giants. That is a serious outlier.

It was 36-0. That's the problem with looking at small samples (I'd advise against it, which is why I'd prefer not to look just at the .500+ teams).

I agree- there are several other reasons to go with the 'hawks today but I don't think this is the best. Many of your other supporting reasons are solid.Good luck today fellas.

Funniest part of the Redskins backers is their own reasoning is backwards.Biggest reason Washington will win: We're hots0r. We've won 6 straight.

Seattle hasn't lost a meaningful game since October 2nd.

Seahawks are even hotter than the Skins, winning 11 straight meaningful game.

 

[surferskin]

The average score against DAL, DEN, KC, NYG and TB was a Skins loss by 9. Furthermore, I think Seattle is better than the average of those five teams.

This is heavily skewed by Washington's 49-0 beating handed by the Giants. That is a serious outlier.

It was 36-0. That's the problem with looking at small samples (I'd advise against it, which is why I'd prefer not to look just at the .500+ teams).

I agree- there are several other reasons to go with the 'hawks today but I don't think this is the best. Many of your other supporting reasons are solid.Good luck today fellas.

Funniest part of the Redskins backers is their own reasoning is backwards.Biggest reason Washington will win: We're hots0r. We've won 6 straight.

Seattle hasn't lost a meaningful game since October 2nd.

Seahawks are even hotter than the Skins, winning 11 straight meaningful game.

and the fact that we have hall of fame coach and already beat the seagulls this year...HTH

 

[Chase Stuart]

The average score against DAL, DEN, KC, NYG and TB was a Skins loss by 9. Furthermore, I think Seattle is better than the average of those five teams.

This is heavily skewed by Washington's 49-0 beating handed by the Giants. That is a serious outlier.

It was 36-0. That's the problem with looking at small samples (I'd advise against it, which is why I'd prefer not to look just at the .500+ teams).

I agree- there are several other reasons to go with the 'hawks today but I don't think this is the best. Many of your other supporting reasons are solid.Good luck today fellas.

Funniest part of the Redskins backers is their own reasoning is backwards.Biggest reason Washington will win: We're hots0r. We've won 6 straight.

Seattle hasn't lost a meaningful game since October 2nd.

Seahawks are even hotter than the Skins, winning 11 straight meaningful game.

They were hotter than the Redskins. Then they took a month off and lost a meaningless game. You don't stay hot through all of that.

Taking three weeks off doesn't stop you from being hot in my mind. They've won 11 straight important games, then they rested for the playoffs.

 

[bigfeet_88]

 

[Chase Stuart]

Boy was I lucky to get this one right.

 

[cstu]

Boy was I lucky to get this one right.

Tells you how good the bookmakers are.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Boy was I lucky to get this one right.

Tells you how good the bookmakers are.

This proves to me once again why I don't bet on sports much. I thought for sure this line favored WAS but once again the professional handicappers show who is the king.

 

[rick6668]

Whew, Hawks -9.5, that was a squeker

 

[Raider Nation]

Boy was I lucky to get this one right.

Tells you how good the bookmakers are.

No offense intended, but that statement is crap.People only notice the games that fall close to the Vegas line, then they comment on how sharp the books are. It doesn't happen as often as you'd like to believe.

How "good" were the bookies with the Pats/Donks spread?

(Not to mention that it's not their job to make predictions when setting lines.)

 

[redman]

Whew, Hawks -9.5, that was a squeker

It was one John Hall shank away from getting blown. I was commenting to my wife as the Seattle kicker was lining up for that last FG that there were a lot of people in Vegas glued to the TV on that attempt.

 

[FairWarning]

Under the present playoff format where the 1+2 seeds get a bye, they win 85% of the time in the division playoffs. That bye week is huge. Points look enticing because the public saw NE, Wash, Pitt, and Carolina win last week while Seattle, Chicago, Denver, and Indy were on a bye. Public and the media make a case for the dog (they never do during the regular season). Then they get hammered.As bad as the Redskin offense was Saturday, they were a missed FG, or a Moss dropped TD away from covering. A VERRRY public dog today is Carolina. I would be very leery of this pick for these reasons: - They did this against a depleated NY defense.- Bears were 4-0 vs the NFC South.- Bears dominated both lines of scrimmage in the first game(8 sacks by the DL).- Foster will not be able to run on them, making the Panthers one-dimentional.- S Smith had a big game numbers-wise, but was little factor.- Bears have allowed 61 points at home this year.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Under the present playoff format where the 1+2 seeds get a bye, they win 85% of the time in the division playoffs. That bye week is huge. Points look enticing because the public saw NE, Wash, Pitt, and Carolina win last week while Seattle, Chicago, Denver, and Indy were on a bye. Public and the media make a case for the dog (they never do during the regular season). Then they get hammered.

As bad as the Redskin offense was Saturday, they were a missed FG, or a Moss dropped TD away from covering.

A VERRRY public dog today is Carolina. I would be very leery of this pick for these reasons:

- They did this against a depleated NY defense.

- Bears were 4-0 vs the NFC South.

- Bears dominated both lines of scrimmage in the first game(8 sacks by the DL).

- Foster will not be able to run on them, making the Panthers one-dimentional.

- S Smith had a big game numbers-wise, but was little factor.

- Bears have allowed 61 points at home this year.

Very