Why is Chad Ochocinco so undervalued? (1 Viewer)

[doowain]

Why is Chad Ochocinco so undervalued?

As another year of dynasty drafts approach us, I thought it might be worth asking this question. I've already finished up one dynasty draft this year and this issue struck me again (much like it did last year). Referencing the draft I just finished, looking at last year's drafts, and researching his trade value in leagues, I come to the conclusion that Chad is undervalued yet again this year. I come to this conclusion for a few reasons and, I'll apologize in advance to Wayne owners, it comes in direct comparison with Reggie.

If we look at ADP for 2009 and the limited data thus far in 2010, we have:

From fantasyfootballcalculator.com:

Ochocinco

2009 - 39.7 (I didn't see him go before the 5th round in any draft I did last year)

2010 - 5th-6th round

Wayne

2009 - 11.6

2010 - 2nd round

That's a pretty large gap. And I know that fantasy football is a "what have you done for me lately?" hobby. So, last year's ADP following the disastrous Fitzpatrick led 2008 makes sense. And those owners sharky enough to snag him up at that ADP last year reaped the benefits. I'm thinking that this year he represents the same value when you consider a few things.

1. Numbers vs. ADP -- Wayne is still being drafted 3-4 rounds before Chad, even though their numbers aren't far apart (at least not a 3-4 round gap difference). The last 4 years:

Ochocinco

Rec Yds TD Pts2009 72 1047 9 2312008 53 540 4 2007 93 1440 8 2852006 87 1370 7 266Wayne

Rec Yds TD Pts2009 100 1264 10 284 2008 82 1145 6 2007 104 1510 10 315 2006 86 1310 9 2852. Age -- Whether you realize it or not, they are basically the same age. Reggie is only 10.5 months younger than Chad. And considering the top physical shape that Chad keeps himself in, you can't discount him vs. Reggie for "age".

Ochocinco - Jan 9, 1978 / 32

Wayne - Nov 17, 1978 / 31

3. Carson Palmer -- Carson will be another off-season and year removed from his elbow injury. I've talked in other threads about what I felt was a tiring of Carson's arm (resulting in his loss of confidence, ineffectiveness, and conservative play-calling). The first half of 2009 he was on pace for his career average numbers and then he just fell off. Considering I don't think he can play any worse than last year (often over/under throwing receivers), Chad's numbers could legitimately go up from 2009. Now, I get the other end of this argument. Reggie has Peyton Manning. That is definitely a valid point. But, I'm not questioning two equally valued players. If that were the case, I'd obviously give the edge to Reggie Wayne.

4. Antonio Bryant -- Chad will have a receiving threat opposite him on the field that he hasn't had since Housh left and, IMO, the best of his career (Henry's untapped potential will always be a mystery). And, as we saw in Seattle, Chad made TJ a lot better than he really was. Bryant is far superior athletically to Housh and that will benefit Chad quite a bit IMO. This is the exact opposite of how I feel about Indy. They have a logjam at the WR spot.....Wayne, Clark (I know he's a TE), Garcon, Collie, and AGonzalez coming back. That's a lot of mouths to feed. Not to mention the targets Addai sees out of the backfield. This should cancel out the feeling of Cincy as a "running team" considering they have fewer WRs to keep happy. However, the majority don't see it this way.

Other than the certainty you get with Peyton, I just don't see the benefit of taking a marginally more productive WR who is the same age 3-4 rounds earlier in a dynasty startup draft. Likewise, I don't get why anyone would be buying a WR who should put up 250+ points at 2nd round prices, when you can get one for a 6th round pricetag. It's all leading back to Chad being very undervalued again this year. Unlike last year, this time I don't get it.

NOTE: On the flip side, this could also be a case of Reggie Wayne being just as overvalued as Chad is undervalued.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

good thread

Ocho is far easier to obtain in dynasties and the price is low. I tried going after Wayne but the price is sky high. Probably the Peyton vs Palmer factor.

 

[maxwelledison]

Good point. I'm trying to buy Ocho as well but he is up for a contract and will probably go for more money than I have.

 

[Aardvarks]

Chad still has a place in our hobby but to call him undervalued isn't accurate. He's valued right where he should be- in the middle of the pack with the semi-stars.

All stats aside - though his decline is evident there too - Chad has lost that startling separation quickness he had years ago. He's aged a lot. I remember way back when Kitna was throwing him the ball, there was a game vs the Chargers where he had 3 TDs and almost had another 50-yd reception (ruled toes out). He was as unstoppable as Isaac Bruce in '95, or Harrison in '03. Those days are gone.

 

[doowain]

Chad still has a place in our hobby but to call him undervalued isn't accurate. He's valued right where he should be- in the middle of the pack with the semi-stars.All stats aside - though his decline is evident there too - Chad has lost that startling separation quickness he had years ago. He's aged a lot. I remember way back when Kitna was throwing him the ball, there was a game vs the Chargers where he had 3 TDs and almost had another 50-yd reception (ruled toes out). He was as unstoppable as Isaac Bruce in '95, or Harrison in '03. Those days are gone.

So, if Chad is where he should be, you'd be in the camp that feels Reggie Wayne is overvalued?Also, I didn't meant this to be merely a startup value comparison. Trade value across all of my leagues reflect this undervalued vs. overvalued when comparing Wayne/Ocho.

 

[a005511]

Rumor out there that he may change careers and become a professional dancer.

 

[maxwelledison]

Chad still has a place in our hobby but to call him undervalued isn't accurate. He's valued right where he should be- in the middle of the pack with the semi-stars.All stats aside - though his decline is evident there too - Chad has lost that startling separation quickness he had years ago. He's aged a lot. I remember way back when Kitna was throwing him the ball, there was a game vs the Chargers where he had 3 TDs and almost had another 50-yd reception (ruled toes out). He was as unstoppable as Isaac Bruce in '95, or Harrison in '03. Those days are gone.

I generally agree with this, too, but I see him as a safer pick than most of the semi-stars. Great #2 fantasy receiver. I still think he drops farther than he should in most drafts and goes for less money than he should in most auctions (excepting those with natural inflation due to college picks and salary cap issues).

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

There is something more comforting about R. Wayne vs Ocho that makes it more appealing for a fantasy owner.

Selecting Wayne in Indy's offense and the consistency of that offense may be worth the price tag to get him. We know that Manning is a great qb and has plenty of great years left in him. We also know that an aging WR can produce in that offense as Harrison had done for so long.

Over the last 3 years the finishes for these guys in my main dynasty league is:

Wayne: WR 5 in 2009, 13 in 2008, WR 2 in 2007

Ocho: Wr 16 in 2009, WR 50 in 2008 although he was hurt and did not finish, and WR 8 in 2007

Wayne seems like the safe choice to get more targets, catches and yards going forward, and barring a huge set back you are assured a WR 1 in fantasy.

 

[doowain]

There is something more comforting about R. Wayne vs Ocho that makes it more appealing for a fantasy owner.Selecting Wayne in Indy's offense and the consistency of that offense may be worth the price tag to get him. We know that Manning is a great qb and has plenty of great years left in him. We also know that an aging WR can produce in that offense as Harrison had done for so long.Over the last 3 years the finishes for these guys in my main dynasty league is:Wayne: WR 5 in 2009, 13 in 2008, WR 2 in 2007Ocho: Wr 16 in 2009, WR 50 in 2008 although he was hurt and did not finish, and WR 8 in 2007Wayne seems like the safe choice to get more targets, catches and yards going forward, and barring a huge set back you are assured a WR 1 in fantasy.

Thanks for the response, but that's not what is at question here. Sure, Wayne is "safer". But, is that security worth 4 rounds in a dynasty startup? Or is it worth the high price you have to pay for him in a trade? For me, it's not. I'd rather take my chances on Chad in the 5th/6th and get that young WR or RB in the 2nd. And, in a trade, I'd rather go after Chad at this discounted price and spend my dollars left over on a younger option than Wayne.Also, I think you are a bit mistaken on Peyton having "plenty" of great years left in him (unless you see him playing til he's 40 a la Favre).

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

There is something more comforting about R. Wayne vs Ocho that makes it more appealing for a fantasy owner.Selecting Wayne in Indy's offense and the consistency of that offense may be worth the price tag to get him. We know that Manning is a great qb and has plenty of great years left in him. We also know that an aging WR can produce in that offense as Harrison had done for so long.Over the last 3 years the finishes for these guys in my main dynasty league is:Wayne: WR 5 in 2009, 13 in 2008, WR 2 in 2007Ocho: Wr 16 in 2009, WR 50 in 2008 although he was hurt and did not finish, and WR 8 in 2007Wayne seems like the safe choice to get more targets, catches and yards going forward, and barring a huge set back you are assured a WR 1 in fantasy.

Thanks for the response, but that's not what is at question here. Sure, Wayne is "safer". But, is that security worth 4 rounds in a dynasty startup? Or is it worth the high price you have to pay for him in a trade? For me, it's not. I'd rather take my chances on Chad in the 5th/6th and get that young WR or RB in the 2nd. And, in a trade, I'd rather go after Chad at this discounted price and spend my dollars left over on a younger option than Wayne.Also, I think you are a bit mistaken on Peyton having "plenty" of great years left in him (unless you see him playing til he's 40 a la Favre).

First off in dynasty Manning has a for sure 3-4 years of solid fantasy production going forward. Manning is 34 and the way he takes care of his body he will be elite well into his late 30's.Secondly, if you were to take Ocho's ppg over the last 3 years and Wayne's ppg over the last 3 years (once again in my main dynasty league) you would get Wayne at 17.546 vs Ocho's 14.219. Over the course of 16 games that works out to 53.232 difference. Another way of looking at it over that same 3 year span Wayne''s ppg would finish on average as a WR 6-9 vs Ocho's WR 19-22. To me it is much easier to find an up and coming RB, then it is to find up and coming WR's to make up that difference in points. Therefore I would perfer taking the a guy like Wayne. Finding elite WR's and Qb's in dynasty trumps most moves for me and therefore am willing to over pay for that.

 

[doowain]

There is something more comforting about R. Wayne vs Ocho that makes it more appealing for a fantasy owner.Selecting Wayne in Indy's offense and the consistency of that offense may be worth the price tag to get him. We know that Manning is a great qb and has plenty of great years left in him. We also know that an aging WR can produce in that offense as Harrison had done for so long.Over the last 3 years the finishes for these guys in my main dynasty league is:Wayne: WR 5 in 2009, 13 in 2008, WR 2 in 2007Ocho: Wr 16 in 2009, WR 50 in 2008 although he was hurt and did not finish, and WR 8 in 2007Wayne seems like the safe choice to get more targets, catches and yards going forward, and barring a huge set back you are assured a WR 1 in fantasy.

Thanks for the response, but that's not what is at question here. Sure, Wayne is "safer". But, is that security worth 4 rounds in a dynasty startup? Or is it worth the high price you have to pay for him in a trade? For me, it's not. I'd rather take my chances on Chad in the 5th/6th and get that young WR or RB in the 2nd. And, in a trade, I'd rather go after Chad at this discounted price and spend my dollars left over on a younger option than Wayne.Also, I think you are a bit mistaken on Peyton having "plenty" of great years left in him (unless you see him playing til he's 40 a la Favre).

First off in dynasty Manning has a for sure 3-4 years of solid fantasy production going forward. Manning is 34 and the way he takes care of his body he will be elite well into his late 30's.Secondly, if you were to take Ocho's ppg over the last 3 years and Wayne's ppg over the last 3 years (once again in my main dynasty league) you would get Wayne at 17.546 vs Ocho's 14.219. Over the course of 16 games that works out to 53.232 difference. Another way of looking at it over that same 3 year span Wayne''s ppg would finish on average as a WR 6-9 vs Ocho's WR 19-22. To me it is much easier to find an up and coming RB, then it is to find up and coming WR's to make up that difference in points. Therefore I would perfer taking the a guy like Wayne. Finding elite WR's and Qb's in dynasty trumps most moves for me and therefore am willing to over pay for that.

Are your averages including 2008? That was an aberration and a lost year that I don't think you can count.

 

[B. Nugget]

There is something more comforting about R. Wayne vs Ocho that makes it more appealing for a fantasy owner.Selecting Wayne in Indy's offense and the consistency of that offense may be worth the price tag to get him. We know that Manning is a great qb and has plenty of great years left in him. We also know that an aging WR can produce in that offense as Harrison had done for so long.Over the last 3 years the finishes for these guys in my main dynasty league is:Wayne: WR 5 in 2009, 13 in 2008, WR 2 in 2007Ocho: Wr 16 in 2009, WR 50 in 2008 although he was hurt and did not finish, and WR 8 in 2007Wayne seems like the safe choice to get more targets, catches and yards going forward, and barring a huge set back you are assured a WR 1 in fantasy.

Thanks for the response, but that's not what is at question here. Sure, Wayne is "safer". But, is that security worth 4 rounds in a dynasty startup? Or is it worth the high price you have to pay for him in a trade? For me, it's not. I'd rather take my chances on Chad in the 5th/6th and get that young WR or RB in the 2nd. And, in a trade, I'd rather go after Chad at this discounted price and spend my dollars left over on a younger option than Wayne.Also, I think you are a bit mistaken on Peyton having "plenty" of great years left in him (unless you see him playing til he's 40 a la Favre).

First off in dynasty Manning has a for sure 3-4 years of solid fantasy production going forward. Manning is 34 and the way he takes care of his body he will be elite well into his late 30's.Secondly, if you were to take Ocho's ppg over the last 3 years and Wayne's ppg over the last 3 years (once again in my main dynasty league) you would get Wayne at 17.546 vs Ocho's 14.219. Over the course of 16 games that works out to 53.232 difference. Another way of looking at it over that same 3 year span Wayne''s ppg would finish on average as a WR 6-9 vs Ocho's WR 19-22. To me it is much easier to find an up and coming RB, then it is to find up and coming WR's to make up that difference in points. Therefore I would perfer taking the a guy like Wayne. Finding elite WR's and Qb's in dynasty trumps most moves for me and therefore am willing to over pay for that.

Are your averages including 2008? That was an aberration and a lost year that I don't think you can count.

If Wayne lost Manning, what do you think he would put up? We already saw that with Chad and it is figured into his 3 yr average.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

There is something more comforting about R. Wayne vs Ocho that makes it more appealing for a fantasy owner.Selecting Wayne in Indy's offense and the consistency of that offense may be worth the price tag to get him. We know that Manning is a great qb and has plenty of great years left in him. We also know that an aging WR can produce in that offense as Harrison had done for so long.Over the last 3 years the finishes for these guys in my main dynasty league is:Wayne: WR 5 in 2009, 13 in 2008, WR 2 in 2007Ocho: Wr 16 in 2009, WR 50 in 2008 although he was hurt and did not finish, and WR 8 in 2007Wayne seems like the safe choice to get more targets, catches and yards going forward, and barring a huge set back you are assured a WR 1 in fantasy.

Thanks for the response, but that's not what is at question here. Sure, Wayne is "safer". But, is that security worth 4 rounds in a dynasty startup? Or is it worth the high price you have to pay for him in a trade? For me, it's not. I'd rather take my chances on Chad in the 5th/6th and get that young WR or RB in the 2nd. And, in a trade, I'd rather go after Chad at this discounted price and spend my dollars left over on a younger option than Wayne.Also, I think you are a bit mistaken on Peyton having "plenty" of great years left in him (unless you see him playing til he's 40 a la Favre).

First off in dynasty Manning has a for sure 3-4 years of solid fantasy production going forward. Manning is 34 and the way he takes care of his body he will be elite well into his late 30's.Secondly, if you were to take Ocho's ppg over the last 3 years and Wayne's ppg over the last 3 years (once again in my main dynasty league) you would get Wayne at 17.546 vs Ocho's 14.219. Over the course of 16 games that works out to 53.232 difference. Another way of looking at it over that same 3 year span Wayne''s ppg would finish on average as a WR 6-9 vs Ocho's WR 19-22. To me it is much easier to find an up and coming RB, then it is to find up and coming WR's to make up that difference in points. Therefore I would perfer taking the a guy like Wayne. Finding elite WR's and Qb's in dynasty trumps most moves for me and therefore am willing to over pay for that.

Are your averages including 2008? That was an aberration and a lost year that I don't think you can count.

I used point per game. That includes every game they have played, not the games missed over the last 3 years. This is the most accurate way of doing it to best determine what to expect to get out of these guys going forward.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

First off in dynasty Manning has a for sure 3-4 years of solid fantasy production going forward. Manning is 34 and the way he takes care of his body he will be elite well into his late 30's.

Enlighten me. How do you know how Peyton Manning takes care of his body, and if it is better than how other QBs take care of their body?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

First off in dynasty Manning has a for sure 3-4 years of solid fantasy production going forward. Manning is 34 and the way he takes care of his body he will be elite well into his late 30's.

Enlighten me. How do you know how Peyton Manning takes care of his body, and if it is better than how other QBs take care of their body?

I guess it is more of an educated guess.The fact that Manning is known league wide as one of the hardest working players in the league and the fact he has not missed a game in his career and is known to put in the extra work before and after practice. He is one of the best decision making QB's who will flop to the ground and take a sac vs risk getting hurt. He also has a quick release, reads defeneses well and in turn allows him to see a blitz coming an in turn not take a big hit.

 

[Tau837]

First off, I think it is more useful to talk in terms of where a player is drafted within his position (e.g., WR20) rather than what round he was drafted, since that will tend to eliminate some of the league specific factors, like number of teams, starting lineup requirements, etc.

I think Ocho is probably still overvalued a bit... best case he is being valued appropriately... no way is he undervalued IMO. Wayne is definitely overvalued right now.

To some degree, this depends on your team... if you have an existing team you think will contend for a title this year, Wayne and Ocho might hold a bit more value for you if you can acquire them for a reasonable price. But if you are drafting a team, I don't see why you cannot draft a younger player in the equivalent rounds that will hold similar short term value and greater long term value than either of them.

It's a bit of a different subject, but to compare them:

1. As many posts in this thread have shown, Wayne has pretty consistently outperformed Ocho over the past few years in terms of numbers and fantasy points. There is no reason to think that will change going forward.

2. You tried to write them off as being the same age, but Wayne is nearly a year younger than Ocho. That matters and can't just be ignored.

3. Wayne is in a better situation, which helps explain #1. There is no reason to think that will change going forward.

These factors clearly show that Wayne should be valued higher than Ocho by a considerable margin. YMMV on how you define "considerable".

 

[Ernol]

Big difference between the two imo.

One WR is an aging WR that is still producing among the elite and playing with perhaps the best regular season QB of all time and that would have produced even better if he didn’t play only half of games 16 and 17. You can look past the aging (both actually aren’t that old) when a WR is still producing at this level (top 5) and projected in redrafts to do it again.

The other is an aging WR that is still putting up decent but not elite numbers that is playing with a QB with a questionable wing on a team that is a heavy run first team and where putting up said decent numbers on a going forward basis is not a foregone conclusion, at least not in the minds of fantasy football drafters.

Age in dynasty is obviously a big consideration. Perhaps even too big a consideration in many leagues, but that’s the way it is so we all have to be mindful of age if we care about perceived values. When comparing one aging WR that outscores another aging WR by 50 (which is by no means a small difference) in one year and by 100pts the year prior, and considering that the lesser WR is basically a year older than the better WR (sure 10.5 months seems small, but the psychology of that extra year will continue to play a role the remainder of their careers), the slope down in value will naturally be steep. Frankly, I am surprised Ocho is getting drafted in the 5th and the 6th. I would expect that he would be drafted later given the factors I mentioned. Now, I think he is a fine pick in the 6th, just surprised the masses are actually making the pick there as I would think more would be nervous about taking him.

Further, in my mind, a 72 reception WR is a big difference over a 100 reception WR. An aging 72 reception WR to me suggests that his production can more easily be replaced versus an aging WR that is still getting 100 receptions. Given this, I believe Wayne is more likely to repeat or beat his prior year numbers versus Ocho doing the same. A mere 3-4 round difference in a startup is about right.

You also must take into consideration what is being taken between the two receivers. The difference in values from the 2nd to the 5th rounds really isn’t all that great imo. You have a lot of similar level players from which to choose. At some point, though, you have to choose and many choose Wayne’s stellar win-now production before they do say a Jeremy Maclin or Kenny Britt. And when it comes to choosing a Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt or Ocho, I think that’s an easy choice as well in favor of Maclin and Britt.

If Ocho is undervalued as you say, do you think he should be drafted in the 4th round?

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Ignoring any age or talent difference, I think there are a few reasons that Wayne should be valued much higher than Ocho.

1. Cincy is a running team, Indy is a passing team - You can throw out 2006 and 2007 for Ocho. That isn't Cincy's offense anymore. They are a run first team. Last year, they threw 75-100 less attempts for 1000 less yards than they did in those years. That likely isn't going to change dramatically over the next few years.

2. Cincy's defense is much better now than in 2006 and 2007 - Again, throw out Ocho's stats for those years. They're giving up 50-75 less points now and don't need to score 30 to win. Their offense plays from behind less allowing them to run more.

3. There is still concern about the health of Palmer - He looked awful at the end of last year. He routinely missed even the short passes and many think his arm is still not right. Without Palmer, 2008 becomes a possibility again.

All of those make 2009 the likely target for Ocho's production. There really isn't much reason to expect much more. With Wayne, there really isn't a reason to expect any less, leaving a 50 point gap between the two.

 

[Malabar]

Why is Chad Ochocinco so undervalued?

I think the simple answer is "the what have you done for me lately". Chad has had 2 disappointing years. I expected Chad to bounce back last year, and with 8 games, had 44-639-5 which is 88-1280-10 for a full 16 games. But just like Palmer and whole offense, took a major decline in the 2nd half.

 

[phthalatemagic]

doowain - there is a significant production gap between these two. Have you seen how many players fit in between them?

 

[Ernol]

In a recent startup, here are the receivers chosen between Reggie Wayne (taken 26th overall) and Ocho (taken 64th overall):

Santonio Holmes

Hakeem Nicks

Steve Smith 2.0

Dwayne Bowe

Demaryius Thomas

Jeremy Maclin

Steve Smith 1.0

Percy Harvin

MSW

Randy Moss

Kenny Britt

Anquan Boldin

I have no problem ranking Ocho below each of these players. I also don’t see a problem with a team drafting Wayne ahead of these WRs if they want to win now.

Here are some WRs taken after Ocho:

Wes Welker

Pierre Garcon

Arrelious Benn

Braylon Edwards

Jerricho Cotchery

Eddie Royal

Golden Tate

Steve Breaston

Mike Wallace

I would take Ocho ahead of most of this second list, but probably would bump him down below Welker, Garcon and Braylon (probably Benn as well).

Overall, Ocho getting drafted 64th overall seems about right (or just a tad too early).

 

[doowain]

In a recent startup, here are the receivers chosen between Reggie Wayne (taken 26th overall) and Ocho (taken 64th overall):Santonio HolmesHakeem NicksSteve Smith 2.0Dwayne BoweDemaryius ThomasJeremy MaclinSteve Smith 1.0Percy HarvinMSWRandy MossKenny BrittAnquan BoldinI have no problem ranking Ocho below each of these players. I also don’t see a problem with a team drafting Wayne ahead of these WRs if they want to win now. Here are some WRs taken after Ocho:Wes WelkerPierre GarconArrelious BennBraylon EdwardsJerricho CotcheryEddie RoyalGolden TateSteve BreastonMike WallaceI would take Ocho ahead of most of this second list, but probably would bump him down below Welker, Garcon and Braylon (probably Benn as well). Overall, Ocho getting drafted 64th overall seems about right (or just a tad too early).

The way I currently see this swaying is:ChadTrade Value: undervaluedInitial startup value: about rightWayneTrade Value: overvaluedInitial startup value: overvalued

 

[Ernol]

In a recent startup, here are the receivers chosen between Reggie Wayne (taken 26th overall) and Ocho (taken 64th overall):

Santonio Holmes

Hakeem Nicks

Steve Smith 2.0

Dwayne Bowe

Demaryius Thomas

Jeremy Maclin

Steve Smith 1.0

Percy Harvin

MSW

Randy Moss

Kenny Britt

Anquan Boldin

I have no problem ranking Ocho below each of these players. I also don’t see a problem with a team drafting Wayne ahead of these WRs if they want to win now.

Here are some WRs taken after Ocho:

Wes Welker

Pierre Garcon

Arrelious Benn

Braylon Edwards

Jerricho Cotchery

Eddie Royal

Golden Tate

Steve Breaston

Mike Wallace

I would take Ocho ahead of most of this second list, but probably would bump him down below Welker, Garcon and Braylon (probably Benn as well).

Overall, Ocho getting drafted 64th overall seems about right (or just a tad too early).

The way I currently see this swaying is:

Chad

Trade Value: undervalued

Initial startup value: about right

Wayne

Trade Value: overvalued

Initial startup value: overvalued

Not sure how you're getting that but I recently saw a trade of Chad Johnson for Johnny Knox, the 1.06 rookie (dev league) and the 1.09 dev pick. I would say that the trade value for Chad Johnson is just fine.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

The time to acquire Chad was last year, coming off the injury-plagued 2008. Many were down on him and they did not take into account the injury to Palmer as to why the 2008 season was poor (in addition to Chad's injury). While he is a decent PPR WR2/3 for a couple more years, I think his best days are behind him. The signing of Antonio Bryant should only hinder Chad's chances of being a Top 10 WR this season. With his age, we must look at the short term. Someone trading for Ochocinco at this point can only hope to get Hines Ward numbers for a couple of years ... at twice or three times the price.

 

[phthalatemagic]

The time to acquire Chad was last year, coming off the injury-plagued 2008. Many were down on him and they did not take into account the injury to Palmer as to why the 2008 season was poor (in addition to Chad's injury). While he is a decent PPR WR2/3 for a couple more years, I think his best days are behind him. The signing of Antonio Bryant should only hinder Chad's chances of being a Top 10 WR this season. With his age, we must look at the short term. Someone trading for Ochocinco at this point can only hope to get Hines Ward numbers for a couple of years ... at twice or three times the price.

 

[doowain]

The time to acquire Chad was last year, coming off the injury-plagued 2008. Many were down on him and they did not take into account the injury to Palmer as to why the 2008 season was poor (in addition to Chad's injury). While he is a decent PPR WR2/3 for a couple more years, I think his best days are behind him. The signing of Antonio Bryant should only hinder Chad's chances of being a Top 10 WR this season. With his age, we must look at the short term. Someone trading for Ochocinco at this point can only hope to get Hines Ward numbers for a couple of years ... at twice or three times the price.

Fair enough. So, having pointed out Chad's downfalls (age, competition from AB), how do those not apply to Reggie Wayne? Who, by all measures, commands a price tag two to three times higher than Chad?

 

[RoyDubb]

The time to acquire Chad was last year, coming off the injury-plagued 2008. Many were down on him and they did not take into account the injury to Palmer as to why the 2008 season was poor (in addition to Chad's injury). While he is a decent PPR WR2/3 for a couple more years, I think his best days are behind him. The signing of Antonio Bryant should only hinder Chad's chances of being a Top 10 WR this season. With his age, we must look at the short term. Someone trading for Ochocinco at this point can only hope to get Hines Ward numbers for a couple of years ... at twice or three times the price.

Fair enough. So, having pointed out Chad's downfalls (age, competition from AB), how do those not apply to Reggie Wayne? Who, by all measures, commands a price tag two to three times higher than Chad?

because Wayne is supposedly a SAFER BET to produce and be in the top-10/12 compared to Chad....

 

[Ernol]

The time to acquire Chad was last year, coming off the injury-plagued 2008. Many were down on him and they did not take into account the injury to Palmer as to why the 2008 season was poor (in addition to Chad's injury). While he is a decent PPR WR2/3 for a couple more years, I think his best days are behind him. The signing of Antonio Bryant should only hinder Chad's chances of being a Top 10 WR this season. With his age, we must look at the short term. Someone trading for Ochocinco at this point can only hope to get Hines Ward numbers for a couple of years ... at twice or three times the price.

Fair enough. So, having pointed out Chad's downfalls (age, competition from AB), how do those not apply to Reggie Wayne? Who, by all measures, commands a price tag two to three times higher than Chad?

Despite competition from some talented rookies and a TE that played out of his mind and resting half of the last two games , Wayne still managed to get 100 receptions, finish top 5 and will likely, for most of the redraft world, still be considered a top 5 WR in 2010.I think it has been answered why Chad Johnson is not "so" undervalued (and it sounds like you might agree). Is this thread really about Reggie Wayne then?

 

[doowain]

The time to acquire Chad was last year, coming off the injury-plagued 2008. Many were down on him and they did not take into account the injury to Palmer as to why the 2008 season was poor (in addition to Chad's injury). While he is a decent PPR WR2/3 for a couple more years, I think his best days are behind him. The signing of Antonio Bryant should only hinder Chad's chances of being a Top 10 WR this season. With his age, we must look at the short term. Someone trading for Ochocinco at this point can only hope to get Hines Ward numbers for a couple of years ... at twice or three times the price.

Fair enough. So, having pointed out Chad's downfalls (age, competition from AB), how do those not apply to Reggie Wayne? Who, by all measures, commands a price tag two to three times higher than Chad?

because Wayne is supposedly a SAFER BET to produce and be in the top-10/12 compared to Chad....

Right...and the point I'm trying to make: Is he worth the higher price tag?

 

[doowain]

The time to acquire Chad was last year, coming off the injury-plagued 2008. Many were down on him and they did not take into account the injury to Palmer as to why the 2008 season was poor (in addition to Chad's injury). While he is a decent PPR WR2/3 for a couple more years, I think his best days are behind him. The signing of Antonio Bryant should only hinder Chad's chances of being a Top 10 WR this season. With his age, we must look at the short term. Someone trading for Ochocinco at this point can only hope to get Hines Ward numbers for a couple of years ... at twice or three times the price.

Fair enough. So, having pointed out Chad's downfalls (age, competition from AB), how do those not apply to Reggie Wayne? Who, by all measures, commands a price tag two to three times higher than Chad?

Despite competition from some talented rookies and a TE that played out of his mind and resting half of the last two games , Wayne still managed to get 100 receptions, finish top 5 and will likely, for most of the redraft world, still be considered a top 5 WR in 2010.I think it has been answered why Chad Johnson is not "so" undervalued (and it sounds like you might agree). Is this thread really about Reggie Wayne then?

That would be the underlying question here, yes. If Chad is proven to be valued where he should be, then it makes Reggie Wayne overvalued. At least IMO.

 

[djb916420]

In a recent startup, here are the receivers chosen between Reggie Wayne (taken 26th overall) and Ocho (taken 64th overall):

Santonio Holmes

Hakeem Nicks

Steve Smith 2.0

Dwayne Bowe

Demaryius Thomas

Jeremy Maclin

Steve Smith 1.0

Percy Harvin

MSW

Randy Moss

Kenny Britt

Anquan Boldin

I have no problem ranking Ocho below each of these players. I also don’t see a problem with a team drafting Wayne ahead of these WRs if they want to win now.

Here are some WRs taken after Ocho:

Wes Welker

Pierre Garcon

Arrelious Benn

Braylon Edwards

Jerricho Cotchery

Eddie Royal

Golden Tate

Steve Breaston

Mike Wallace

I would take Ocho ahead of most of this second list, but probably would bump him down below Welker, Garcon and Braylon (probably Benn as well).

Overall, Ocho getting drafted 64th overall seems about right (or just a tad too early).

The way I currently see this swaying is:

Chad

Trade Value: undervalued

Initial startup value: about right

Wayne

Trade Value: overvalued

Initial startup value: overvalued

Not sure how you're getting that but I recently saw a trade of Chad Johnson for Johnny Knox, the 1.06 rookie (dev league) and the 1.09 dev pick. I would say that the trade value for Chad Johnson is just fine.

 

[doowain]

Not sure how you're getting that but I recently saw a trade of Chad Johnson for Johnny Knox, the 1.06 rookie (dev league) and the 1.09 dev pick. I would say that the trade value for Chad Johnson is just fine.

Do we want to go there? You could help me prove my argument with our Wayne for Stewart/Roddy trade from a couple years ago

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The time to acquire Chad was last year, coming off the injury-plagued 2008. Many were down on him and they did not take into account the injury to Palmer as to why the 2008 season was poor (in addition to Chad's injury). While he is a decent PPR WR2/3 for a couple more years, I think his best days are behind him. The signing of Antonio Bryant should only hinder Chad's chances of being a Top 10 WR this season. With his age, we must look at the short term. Someone trading for Ochocinco at this point can only hope to get Hines Ward numbers for a couple of years ... at twice or three times the price.

Fair enough. So, having pointed out Chad's downfalls (age, competition from AB), how do those not apply to Reggie Wayne? Who, by all measures, commands a price tag two to three times higher than Chad?

because Wayne is supposedly a SAFER BET to produce and be in the top-10/12 compared to Chad....

Right...and the point I'm trying to make: Is he worth the higher price tag?

What do you think it would cost in addition to Chad Johnson to acquire Reggie Wayne? What do you think it should cost?Chad Johnson is only a little older but, I think Wayne as the superior route runner in the better offense, is better equipped to age gracefully. Also you seem to think that the year between Palmer's injury and the 2010 season automatically means that he'll return to form. Personally I'm not so sure of that - and obviously that hurts Ocho's value.

 

[travdogg]

The time to acquire Chad was last year, coming off the injury-plagued 2008. Many were down on him and they did not take into account the injury to Palmer as to why the 2008 season was poor (in addition to Chad's injury). While he is a decent PPR WR2/3 for a couple more years, I think his best days are behind him. The signing of Antonio Bryant should only hinder Chad's chances of being a Top 10 WR this season. With his age, we must look at the short term. Someone trading for Ochocinco at this point can only hope to get Hines Ward numbers for a couple of years ... at twice or three times the price.

Fair enough. So, having pointed out Chad's downfalls (age, competition from AB), how do those not apply to Reggie Wayne? Who, by all measures, commands a price tag two to three times higher than Chad?

Despite competition from some talented rookies and a TE that played out of his mind and resting half of the last two games , Wayne still managed to get 100 receptions, finish top 5 and will likely, for most of the redraft world, still be considered a top 5 WR in 2010.I think it has been answered why Chad Johnson is not "so" undervalued (and it sounds like you might agree). Is this thread really about Reggie Wayne then?

That would be the underlying question here, yes. If Chad is proven to be valued where he should be, then it makes Reggie Wayne overvalued. At least IMO.

I guess I'm not seeing the Ocho vs Wayne argument the same as you are. I see two guys who are about the same age and had about the same production three years ago. Is that really enough to suggest they should be rated closely. Wayne is a more consistent player in a better offense with a better QB and non of those things are likely to chnge in the near future. I'd have no problem taking Wayne a dozen or so WR's before Ocho and expecting 200 more yards and 3-4 more TD's.Of course the shorter answer as to why Wayne should be ranked so much higher is that Carson Palmer might be falling apart.

 

[Ernol]

The time to acquire Chad was last year, coming off the injury-plagued 2008. Many were down on him and they did not take into account the injury to Palmer as to why the 2008 season was poor (in addition to Chad's injury). While he is a decent PPR WR2/3 for a couple more years, I think his best days are behind him. The signing of Antonio Bryant should only hinder Chad's chances of being a Top 10 WR this season. With his age, we must look at the short term. Someone trading for Ochocinco at this point can only hope to get Hines Ward numbers for a couple of years ... at twice or three times the price.

Fair enough. So, having pointed out Chad's downfalls (age, competition from AB), how do those not apply to Reggie Wayne? Who, by all measures, commands a price tag two to three times higher than Chad?

Despite competition from some talented rookies and a TE that played out of his mind and resting half of the last two games , Wayne still managed to get 100 receptions, finish top 5 and will likely, for most of the redraft world, still be considered a top 5 WR in 2010.I think it has been answered why Chad Johnson is not "so" undervalued (and it sounds like you might agree). Is this thread really about Reggie Wayne then?

That would be the underlying question here, yes. If Chad is proven to be valued where he should be, then it makes Reggie Wayne overvalued. At least IMO.

Sneaky. Spreading some Wayne-hate in the guise of a pro-Ocho thread. You gave it away by giving up on Ocho too easily Seriously though, neither player is all that old and for the most part, I am not seeing why Wayne would not be expected to put up elite numbers yet again in 2010. To many, the elite numbers in the short term is worth of an early pick. Getting a 50 point advantage on the field because you have a top 5 WR is a big deal in an effort to win a championship. Youre not going to get that advantage (not even close) by drafting Maclin or Britt. Until Wayne shows us that he is vulnerable and no longer elite, his value should be high (2nd-3rd this year).There was a time when Ocho was considered elite as well and despite semi-advancing age, was also drafted quite high. But Ocho DID already show us vulnerability in the form of a miserable year that you are suggesting to us should be ignored and considered an aberration. That kind of year is not simple to forget and should in my opinion be considered when comparing the two players. Looking at where Wayne was drafted in the example I used above, he was drafted as WR14. Behind younger productive guys like Roddy, Jennings, Desean, Austin, Colston, etc, (as he should be) and even behind unproven guys like Dez Bryant and Crabtree (which I have no problem with, but I think some may prefer Wayne depending on team makeup) but still just ahead of young guns with potential that are not yet of the proven variety (Maclin, Britt, Nicks, etc.). WR14 and 26th overall doesn’t sound too high to me and if high, couldn’t be that far off where he should be.

 

[travdogg]

Wayne was the 14th WR off the board?

This thread is making me think Wayne is the guy who's undervalued.

 

[Ernol]

I know, as it turns out, this is way off topic,... but I recently traded Ocho for Donald Brown which was about the value I was looking to get for him and I think both teams felt good about the trade. Ocho trade value is still alive and well.

 

[SSOG]

Chad still has a place in our hobby but to call him undervalued isn't accurate. He's valued right where he should be- in the middle of the pack with the semi-stars.

All stats aside - though his decline is evident there too - Chad has lost that startling separation quickness he had years ago. He's aged a lot. I remember way back when Kitna was throwing him the ball, there was a game vs the Chargers where he had 3 TDs and almost had another 50-yd reception (ruled toes out). He was as unstoppable as Isaac Bruce in '95, or Harrison in '03. Those days are gone.

I disagree. From what I saw of Ochocinco last year, he's as good as he always was, it's just that Palmer is a shell of his former self and was unable to get him the ball. We've discussed it in the dynasty thread and reasonable minds have agreed.With that said, while Ocho is every bit the talent that Wayne is, and while he's mildly undervalued, I don't think he's ridiculously undervalued. After all, Wayne still has Manning, and Ocho still has the giant question mark that Carson Palmer has become. Ocho finished as WR14 last year. I think that's a reasonable projection for next year, too.

 

[doowain]

Chad still has a place in our hobby but to call him undervalued isn't accurate. He's valued right where he should be- in the middle of the pack with the semi-stars.

All stats aside - though his decline is evident there too - Chad has lost that startling separation quickness he had years ago. He's aged a lot. I remember way back when Kitna was throwing him the ball, there was a game vs the Chargers where he had 3 TDs and almost had another 50-yd reception (ruled toes out). He was as unstoppable as Isaac Bruce in '95, or Harrison in '03. Those days are gone.

I disagree. From what I saw of Ochocinco last year, he's as good as he always was, it's just that Palmer is a shell of his former self and was unable to get him the ball. We've discussed it in the dynasty thread and reasonable minds have agreed.With that said, while Ocho is every bit the talent that Wayne is, and while he's mildly undervalued, I don't think he's ridiculously undervalued. After all, Wayne still has Manning, and Ocho still has the giant question mark that Carson Palmer has become. Ocho finished as WR14 last year. I think that's a reasonable projection for next year, too.

This.Watching Chad last year, he hasn't had this big dropoff in talent that people seem to think. You can blindly look at the numbers and think that, but if you watch the games, you know that's not the case at all. He still has it.

 

[GSWarriors]

Chad still has a place in our hobby but to call him undervalued isn't accurate. He's valued right where he should be- in the middle of the pack with the semi-stars.

All stats aside - though his decline is evident there too - Chad has lost that startling separation quickness he had years ago. He's aged a lot. I remember way back when Kitna was throwing him the ball, there was a game vs the Chargers where he had 3 TDs and almost had another 50-yd reception (ruled toes out). He was as unstoppable as Isaac Bruce in '95, or Harrison in '03. Those days are gone.

I disagree. From what I saw of Ochocinco last year, he's as good as he always was, it's just that Palmer is a shell of his former self and was unable to get him the ball. We've discussed it in the dynasty thread and reasonable minds have agreed.With that said, while Ocho is every bit the talent that Wayne is, and while he's mildly undervalued, I don't think he's ridiculously undervalued. After all, Wayne still has Manning, and Ocho still has the giant question mark that Carson Palmer has become. Ocho finished as WR14 last year. I think that's a reasonable projection for next year, too.

couldn't agree more. This.

Watching Chad last year, he hasn't had this big dropoff in talent that people seem to think. You can blindly look at the numbers and think that, but if you watch the games, you know that's not the case at all. He still has it.

 

[GSWarriors]

Chad still has a place in our hobby but to call him undervalued isn't accurate. He's valued right where he should be- in the middle of the pack with the semi-stars.

All stats aside - though his decline is evident there too - Chad has lost that startling separation quickness he had years ago. He's aged a lot. I remember way back when Kitna was throwing him the ball, there was a game vs the Chargers where he had 3 TDs and almost had another 50-yd reception (ruled toes out). He was as unstoppable as Isaac Bruce in '95, or Harrison in '03. Those days are gone.

I disagree. From what I saw of Ochocinco last year, he's as good as he always was, it's just that Palmer is a shell of his former self and was unable to get him the ball. We've discussed it in the dynasty thread and reasonable minds have agreed.With that said, while Ocho is every bit the talent that Wayne is, and while he's mildly undervalued, I don't think he's ridiculously undervalued. After all, Wayne still has Manning, and Ocho still has the giant question mark that Carson Palmer has become. Ocho finished as WR14 last year. I think that's a reasonable projection for next year, too.

This.

Watching Chad last year, he hasn't had this big dropoff in talent that people seem to think. You can blindly look at the numbers and think that, but if you watch the games, you know that's not the case at all. He still has it.

couldn't agree more.

 

[Mapmaker]

I'm strongly entrenched in the Chad is a great value play at the 7-8 round in a 12 team IDP dynasty ... that's where I got him and I was smilin' all day long!

I haven't seen any obvious decline in Chad's play .. but like SSOG notes ... his QB has been a mear ghost of himself last season and was injured the season before ...

Sorry to disagree with all the naysayers but I Chad as a strong value play!

 

[abe froman]

There is something more comforting about R. Wayne vs Ocho that makes it more appealing for a fantasy owner.Selecting Wayne in Indy's offense and the consistency of that offense may be worth the price tag to get him. We know that Manning is a great qb and has plenty of great years left in him. We also know that an aging WR can produce in that offense as Harrison had done for so long.Over the last 3 years the finishes for these guys in my main dynasty league is:Wayne: WR 5 in 2009, 13 in 2008, WR 2 in 2007Ocho: Wr 16 in 2009, WR 50 in 2008 although he was hurt and did not finish, and WR 8 in 2007Wayne seems like the safe choice to get more targets, catches and yards going forward, and barring a huge set back you are assured a WR 1 in fantasy.

Thanks for the response, but that's not what is at question here. Sure, Wayne is "safer". But, is that security worth 4 rounds in a dynasty startup? Or is it worth the high price you have to pay for him in a trade? For me, it's not. I'd rather take my chances on Chad in the 5th/6th and get that young WR or RB in the 2nd. And, in a trade, I'd rather go after Chad at this discounted price and spend my dollars left over on a younger option than Wayne.Also, I think you are a bit mistaken on Peyton having "plenty" of great years left in him (unless you see him playing til he's 40 a la Favre).

I think Ocho has been overvalued for the past 4 years. when he said "safer" Im pretty sure he's talking about Wayne being a guy that you can count on most weeks to give you stud production, while Ocho may get his 7-8 TD's in 3-4 games and give you doughnuts the other 12-13 games.. Im may be exagerating A BIT but Ocho is not a WR1 and hasnt been for a few years now so him getting picked in the 4-6 rounds with the other WR2's and WR3's sounds about right. I think alot of people that were rolling with Mcnabb in 06-07 understand this idea as he was another guy that had great numbers at seasons end but owners know that for every game that he single handidly won for you there was 1-2 that he lost due to single digit fantasy points to worse -negative points.. <not to highjack but trying to show that end of season stats comparison do not tell the whole story..