Why is Rudi Johnson ranked so low? (1 Viewer)

[Wally Llama]

I think the market is pricing him just about right currently. Odds are that he is done as a fantasy starter, but there is some non-zero chance that he has solid RB2 season potential. Here is a list of all backs who since 1970 who 1) averaged 3.30 or fewer yards per carry on at least 100 attempts at ages 27-29; and 2) scored at least 450 fantasy points over the previous 3 seasons combined. Most ended up being done for as productive players, Leroy Kelly bounced back with 12 touchdowns and over 250 receiving yards at age 29, his ypc recovered to 3.7. George still only averaged 3.4 in 2002, but bounced back with 14 tds and just over 250 receiving yards. Levens had a knee injury early in the 1998 season, came back after missing 9 games. In 1999, he had over 500 receiving yards and 10 td's, and the ypc was 3.7. The rest of the results are ugly. Even the 3 relative successes the year after had subpar rushing averages, they got their points by 1) playing most of the year 2) getting receiving yards, and 3) getting double digit touchdowns.

year	first	last		age-3 yr fp-rush avg-	fp's, year n+1	1998	Dorsey	Levens		28	489	3.29		222	1996	Rodney	Hampton		27	506	3.26		14	1989	Curt	Warner		28	625	3.25		20	1984	Earl 	Campbell		29	516	3.21		79	1993	Neal	Anderson		29	564	3.20		retired	1970	Leroy 	Kelly		28	669	3.18		194	1978	Chuck 	Foreman		28	760	3.16		49	1975	Ron	Johnson		28	504	3.03		retired	1975	John 	Brockington		27	476	3.01		57	2001	Eddie 	George		28	743	2.98		226	1992	John 	Williams		28	471	2.97		106	2007	Rudi	Johnson		28	668	2.92		????	1999	Adrian	Murrell		29	517	2.87		14	1997	Larry	Centers		29	459	2.73		781974	Larry	Brown		27	608	2.64		88

sorry for the formatting, btw, its late.

Nice data-driven response. I had George in mind when I was reading this article, but it's interesting to see how many instances of guys falling off there are. I decided to look at Georges & Kelly's seasons after their down years, and also look at who was around them to steal playing time:1999 GBP RBs: (att-yds YPC TDs)Dorsey Levens 279-1034 3.71 9 Basil Mitchell 29-117 4.03 0 De'Mond Parker 36-184 5.11 2William Henderson 7-29 4.14 2 2002 TEN RBs: (att-yds YPC TDs)Eddie George 343-1165 3.40 12Robert Holcombe 47-242 5.15 0Mike Green 21-71 3.38 0John Simon 9-18 2.00 1Greg Comella 1-0 0.00 0Both George and Levens had 7 to 10 times as many carries as the next RB on their team. These guys had no competition for carries on their teams. Rudi's got capable competition, so it doesn't look good to me.I started reading this thread thinking I'd come across a nice draft day value, but now I'm pretty convinced to let someone else gobble up this value.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

In TD-heavy leagues I can see him being worth starting, as Eddie George was at the end of his career. The TDs were still there even though the yardage wasn't.

In more yardage-based scoring systems and PPR, I'd stay away.

 

[Al Toon's Mole]

One less worry for Rudi next year:

Bengals waived RB Kenny Irons.

Waste of a second-round pick. Irons, the 49th selection overall two Aprils ago, faces an uncertain future after being extremely slow to recover from a torn ACL. He was a decent change of pace prospect coming out of Auburn, but only goes about 5'11/200 soaking wet, isn't a pile pusher, and doesn't catch the ball well. If he's lost his speed, he could be done.