This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Wow.
I would lean to picking him closer to 4th than the 6th. The ADP is based on a vast number of scoring systems and I would think that others in my league would take the scoring into account....so odds are someone else would draft green in the 4th. Maybe my scoring systems gives 10 points for a fumble or something (ok out on an extreme here...but maybe it gets the point out) and this would make green more "valuable" in my league then everyone elses.I can see what DD is talking about above....and I guess it comes down to maybe I can pick up Green in the 5th round since no one else would take him until the 6th. I am in a new league this year (changed jobs) so it will be interesting to see if everyone just follows the ADP (licking my chops if they do).
Don't flatter yourself. Your scoring system is not that unique and your league mates do not deviate that far from the norm. ADP has value.
Hey, its not my scoring system its the league that I am in... I dont know where any flattering comes in.....Flattering belongs in the same place as the ADP value (garbage can).
LOL, nice story.I agree with you totally.. I would do the same thing. But what if that guy didnt have Peyton Manning?I guess the part I am missing is getting the ADP for my scoring system. (wouldnt this mean that the ideal ADP would just = the VBD though?) i was just looking at the one thats in the VBS xls and Draft Dominator and havent tweaked it in any way. My scenerios are running a little different where the VBD ranks a guy at 13th overall, but his ADP 2.11. If I am drafting at 13 I am still going to take him, everyone drafting after me would take him...he would be gone way before the 2.11 slot (or least he should be). This is the reason I didnt see much uses for the ADP.
I agree that the rising and falling information is very useful. I skip all the football guys ranking stuff and go right to the whos moving up and down page. after all thats really what your after.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...amp;howrecent=7
This man is wise. He knows things. Important things - like PQD's.
It was the Onassis run mafia.
What if his ADP was 3.11? Wouldn't you rather take him in the third and get two second rounders (according to VBD) rather than one?
Using the LTQ XL linear ion trap mass spectrometer?
You're awesome.
lol I like it.. will use the DGP method.
I got your PQD statement right here {insert solo by 75 year old ACE FREELY}
I guarantee if you can master this method you will have a lot of success if FF. Good luck.
I appreciate it, but I couldn't think of any way to better describe VBD relative to ADP.
Actually David, I think that's a misuse of ADP because half the time the player will be taken before the ADP (I understand that I am mixing median and mean here but they should be close enough). If player A is the highest value on my board at pick 4.3 (39) but his ADP is 6.0 (60) ADP suggests waiting to my next pick, there is something close to 50% chance that he won't last that long. What would be much more helpful to me (especially to players that are taken rounds 8 or after who will have a wide range of opinion) is a 10% ranking. Something that tells me a player has a 10 - 20% risk of being taken. Then I can make a true decision where I have to take my player if I think he is going to dramatically outperform (for example say I think Ben Rothlesberger will be a top 8 QB. Obviously he presents great value to me, but I wouldn't take him as the 8th QB off the board. I need to know what are the highest levels he is going for in typical drafts. Knowing that he is being taken in the 11th as an average doesn't help me, I need to know that he has a 1% chance that he will be taken in the 8th, a 12% chance he will be taken in the 9th. That data, if I could get it, would be of huge service to me in preparing when to target a player. The only purpose of true ADP is to know what the herd is doing, which is just going to lead to mediocrity.
This is actually a pretty good posting, albeit kinda nerdy
I think this is possible with any ADP dataset that gives you the standard deviation (like Ants). You'd have to rescale the decimal part (for pick no. in that round) to a proportion (of the "total" round), but then a 90 percent confidence interval around the mean could be calculated. That lower value might approximate the spot at which there is a 10 percent chance of being picked. This is a bit of a leap however, since really the conf. intvl. is technically just about the true mean, not about a pick likelihood.What would be better and much more accurate would be to have the pick data by round, then a probabilistic estimate (beta distrib.) could be made of the chance of going in a certain round. I've thought about doing this but decided it was too much work, given the data available to me. I think FBG should contract with Ants or someone to get the raw data and then set someone loose on it.On another note, how much would you be willing to trade for the chance at roommate #2?
That example has absolutely nothing to do with ADP. That's making a smart decision because the guy with picks between yours already has a QB so you know you don't need to take your QB first.
In that case, if VBD says to take someone in the 4th I'd say to take him in the 2nd or 3rd just to be EXTRA safe.
I know it has nothing to do with ADP, but it was intended as an example of why you shouldn't just pick the best VBD guy and you need to look ahead and realize that you may have the ability to land the very same player in a subsequent round and thereby maximize the VBD on your team.The original poster obviously needed a very simple suggestion based on his complete lack of understanding of why ADP is important and that example while not about ADP is the best I could come up with on short notice. A better example would be. TJ Houshmanzadeh. Based on the projections in the draft dominator in PPR leagues T. J. Houshmanzadeh is ranked as the #6 WR. The general drafter in your league is not set to draft T.J that high because his magazine tells him that TJ is the 15th best WR and a review of ADP may have TJ also going as the 15th WR. Let's say you are picking at 3.5 and then at 4.8. At 3.5 you notice that the 5 WRs ranked ahead of T.J. are already off the board and TJ has the highest VBD. If your are just drafting on VBD you would automatically select TJ here, but if you use ADP as a guide you may pass on T.J. and hope that all the guys in your league pay more attention to the magazines (or ADP) and maybe when it gets back to you T.J. is still on the board. But now you also have Roy Williams (7th best WR) who you took at 3.5 and TJ (6th best WR) who you took at 4.8. Hopefully, that is a better example.FYI, rather than take the simple minded approach and say "That example has absolutely nothing to do with ADP." Try giving some constructive criticism and give us an example of your own. A wise man once said, "it's easier to throw bombs than build bridges." Actually, I have no idea who said that or even if he was a wise man, but considering that I just said it, it now qualifies as what a wise man once said.p.s. If you disagree with TJ as the 6th and Roy as the 7th it is just an illustration off the top of my head and doesn't reflect their actual rankings.FYI: Do not use T.J. Houshmanzadeh as an example because typing his name multiple times is no fun at all.Ramblin Wreck said:
You make some good points in this thread. That said, I think some get too cute with ADP and end up missing out on the player they truly targeted. Once Round 5 or so hits, I'll take a guy one round early if I really want him just to ensure I get him. I feel much better about my team that way and can accept if I pick a losing team better than getting a losing team because I went "by the book".
joffer said:
PS: (this is bagger...I am suspended until tomorrow for some reason)I am going to read the whole thread before I respond.
I never posted about this here, but I did at length elsewhere. I dubbed it ADPR (average draft position range). I had time last summer and got into the daily mock draft thing. Some days I did 5 or 6 mocks. I kept a sample of 100 mocks current by dropping the oldest and adding the newest. I also added expert drafts as they were published, real drafts from excellent leagues that were posted, and tried to keep the sample as "sharp" as possible. I also focussed on non-ppr performance scoring, because that's the way my money league plays it. The variety of scoring systems and roster requirements could make this a ridiculously cumbersome chore.I could show your where any given player was drafted 100 times. Obviously a ton of insight can be gleaned from this. Some players had very tight ADPRs, always drafted within a 10-12 pick range. Others were much wider, differentiating consistently as much as 4 rounds (ie., Galloway and Clayton last year). I also isolated several interesting trends "per draft" that I felt would help me predict my own draft much better. It did work to some extent. Unfortunately I got bored with the scope of the project and didn't even consider doing it this year, but someone smarter than me with the number crunching stuff could produce volumes of valuable data from solid ADPR analysis.barndog said:
Hmmm, this has given me inspiration. I'll put my C++ skills to use and see what I can come up with.Willowdoc said:
This is a feature I love about Draft dominator, I used to do this in my head, but the program makes it nice to have everything right there. This will be my first time using it in a draft...my only worry was that it would take time updating everyone as you go (taking away time from evaluating next pick)
I would say this is true ONLY if everyone drafted with the same rules and scoring. ADP used to be the old way of doing things before VBD tools started up years ago. You would basically rate players and evalute where they were going in various drafts....the flaw in that was the reason for VBD....to dial in the scoring system of your league. Going with ADP is going backwards. Sure you could use ADP to help tell if you can wait a round on a player...but this assumes everyone in your league is going to draft based on ADP and not take VBD into account. If you wait that extra round, you risk the chance of lossing the guy that you should have drafted. Especially when your drafting last (like I am).
Yeah, if I get the guy I want--even if it's one or two rounds ahead of his ADP--then I'm totally sticking it to the guys who are getting the players they want at or after those players' ADPs.Uh, wait a minute...
Just to add, one thing that I think is myopic about your analysis is that it seems to presume that at every pick there exists a single, "best value" player. That's just not true, and really can't be given that the predictions VBD is based upon are uncertain. For example, do you competely ignore the roster of already-drafted players when choosing? I doubt it.
I use this also. If you are using a draft board (maybe from CBS), it color-codes positions, so you can quickly figure out what the turn guys need.
keep comming back...you'll get it one day!
