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Why The Pack Will Fall Short Again (1 Viewer)

S

smackdaddies

Footballguy
As a Packer Fan, life long, it is time to face the truth - the Packers will not make it far in the playoffs.

Why?

Well, it will not be the offenses fault. The Packers will score enough every week to win the game

If the defense could of done it's job. Why will the Packer D fail? So many reasons

D-Backs. Harris out at least 6 games, Woodson only proven quality d back, S Shields starting nickel back. Shields? A guy who couldn't start in college for a team that didn't have that good of a defense? Pat Lee still on the team? Blackmon who is a good return guy, but has reoccurring knee problems?. Teams should be able to pass on the Packers at will - That backfield will be beaten like a rented mule all season.

Linebackers - To quote the JS sentinal - Clay Matthews, Brad Jones and Desmond Bishop haven’t officially been cleared to practice. Green Bay kept nine at the position in 2009, but there aren’t nine worthy players this year. Ouch.

D-Line - good starters, huge question marks at backup spots, and Jolly is gone. Expect to see good 1st halfs, bad second as the starters get tired out. Especially since the packers offense, with no real running game, will be scoring quick and often, getting the D back on the field without enough rest.

 
I've stated my case on here before. There's 10 years worth of evidence that says the Packers have over an 80% chance of not winning as many games this year as they did last season based on the history of turnover differential/margin and how they impacts teams year to year. It would be a statistical improbability after leading the league with a +24 turnover margin for the Packers win 11 games or more this season. I'm actually pretty sure those stats were posted on this board by someone a few months back, although I don't feel like searching for that specific thread.

I expect a big step back from their defense, and for Rodgers to still have a prolific season throwing the ball but with a significantly higher number of INTs. Lots of high scoring affairs, but I think they'll end up being a middle of the road team struggling for a wildcard spot.

 
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LTF said:
I've stated my case on here before. There's 10 years worth of evidence that says the Packers have over an 80% chance of not winning as many games this year as they did last season based on the history of turnover differential/margin and how they impacts teams year to year. It would be a statistical improbability after leading the league with a +24 turnover margin for the Packers win 11 games or more this season. I'm actually pretty sure those stats were posted on this board by someone a few months back, although I don't feel like searching for that specific thread.

I expect a big step back from their defense, and for Rodgers to still have a prolific season throwing the ball but with a significantly higher number of INTs. Lots of high scoring affairs, but I think they'll end up being a middle of the road team struggling for a wildcard spot.
Click to expand...
That was me...however I can't remember where I found it...thought it was an interesting stat.I don't know why the doom and gloom however for GB.

While Harris is out...he was out for the last 7 games last season and GB went 5-2(including playoffs) and his play was already dropping off the past few seasons. I do see the concern with the CB's...however with Charles Woodson(how long can he stay at that level), Nick Collins(great player), and Morgan Burnett(I like his potential)...that leaves the remaining spots in question. So if you have a weak CB...the safteys could shade that side to help.

The starting DL should be better with Raji creating more plays on the interior than Pickett...and Pickett probably being more stout on the outside than most 3-4 De's. Altho the depth could be an issue....however with the good offense...how much will the defense be on the field???

The OLB spot opposite Mathews is my only concern b/c without a playmaker there...I see many offenses helping block on Mathews side.

But offensively.....Rodgers should have another solid season( I don't expect his turnovers to be that low again however), Ryan Grant(while i'm not a fan of him) does just enough in the running game, the OL has more depth(even outside of Bulaga...the other OL looked better this preseason) and should be improved, we all know about the Finley hype, but I think the 3/4 WR will get more production in GB this season...Nelson and Jones had solid camps from what I read.

The other reason to not be as down for the doom and gloom....The Vikings got worse. How much worse we don't know....but Favre won't put up another season like that....Rice injured...Harvin who knows....no Chester Taylor...McKinnie isn't the same player as before...that Run D isn't what it used to be...etc.

 
Let's look at the other top teams in the NFC....NO, MN, Dal, Atlanta...is the Packers defense really that much worse than any of these teams? I don't think it is.

 
smackdaddies said:
As a Packer Fan, life long, it is time to face the truth - the Packers will not make it far in the playoffs.

Why?

Well, it will not be the offenses fault. The Packers will score enough every week to win the game

If the defense could of done it's job. Why will the Packer D fail? So many reasons

D-Backs. Harris out at least 6 games, Woodson only proven quality d back, S Shields starting nickel back. Shields? A guy who couldn't start in college for a team that didn't have that good of a defense? Pat Lee still on the team? Blackmon who is a good return guy, but has reoccurring knee problems?. Teams should be able to pass on the Packers at will - That backfield will be beaten like a rented mule all season.

Linebackers - To quote the JS sentinal - Clay Matthews, Brad Jones and Desmond Bishop haven’t officially been cleared to practice. Green Bay kept nine at the position in 2009, but there aren’t nine worthy players this year. Ouch.

D-Line - good starters, huge question marks at backup spots, and Jolly is gone. Expect to see good 1st halfs, bad second as the starters get tired out. Especially since the packers offense, with no real running game, will be scoring quick and often, getting the D back on the field without enough rest.
Click to expand...
very :confused:
 
everyone is expecting the offense to do very well, and it probably will. the only way that their OL will reprise the first 6-7 games from last year is if something happens to Clifton and Tauscher. so dont look for them to give up 5-6 sacks per game like they did in first half of last year. but if anything happens to RB Grant then they dont have a comparable replacement. WR and TE depth should be able to get them thru any issues there.

As most of the posters here have indicated the more likely culprit for the Packers not progressing into or far in the Playoffs will be the defense. Why?-

a. can CB T Williams prove to be a reliable replacement for Harris. by the way dont count out Harris returning...

b. the DL lost Jolly, but moving Pickett to DE and Raji to NT will improve their overall play. Rookie Neal may surprise a lot of folks....but can they all replace what Jolly game them?

c. OLB questions- Mathews and Jones have both been injured. Mathews was moved to Picketts side of defense so he and Jenkins wont be on same side, which means an OL has to slide protection to one side or other....

d. safeties- better said above.

Special Teams- these have been erratic in past years, so improvement needs to be made here for them to move on in Playoffs. Looks like they will have an improved punting game...

they may not get to 11-5, and have that same +24 differential but they are definite threat for the Division and Playoffs

 
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Other than the throwaway comment by the favreidiot, all good points raised in here. I think many casual fans underestimate the role played by random uncontrollable factors (basically, luck) in a game and over the course of a season. Turnovers and injuries are both largely random, uncontrollable factors.

It will be an interesting season. As is usual this time of year, I can hardly wait for it to kick off.

 
There are very few teams without question marks. I will take my chances with this offense.

If nothing else...should be fun to watch.

 
Being a Bills fan, my heart bleeds for you. The Packers were one overthrow away from beating Arizona last year. Rodgers WILL NOT do that again. Injuries have happened early this year so the young players will gain real time experience. When all is said and done this year I can see Rodgers matching the All-Mighty's (Favre, that is), Super Bowl win total.

 
McCarthy has won in the playoffs, and should have been in the Super Bowl.

DBs will be fine with Pro Bowlers back there, and the under rated Tramon Williams.

DL doesnt have experienced depth but Mike Neal is a real beast and will suprise many that have yet to see him. Thompson was smart to snag him in the 2nd RD, when most draftnicks went crazy.

Putting Jenkins and Matthews on opposite sides will make it harder for teams to now come up with blocking schemes for both of them.

Preseason meant nothing at all and Capers played it vanilla so that new wrinkles wont me scouted till the regular season.

Non believers and Choke Vike fans drink your kool aid, the death of the Packers after Brett Favre will not come.

 
smackdaddies said:
As a Packer Fan, life long, it is time to face the truth - the Packers will not make it far in the playoffs.

Why?

Well, it will not be the offenses fault. The Packers will score enough every week to win the game

If the defense could of done it's job. Why will the Packer D fail? So many reasons

D-Backs. Harris out at least 6 games, Woodson only proven quality d back, S Shields starting nickel back. Shields? A guy who couldn't start in college for a team that didn't have that good of a defense? Pat Lee still on the team? Blackmon who is a good return guy, but has reoccurring knee problems?. Teams should be able to pass on the Packers at will - That backfield will be beaten like a rented mule all season.

Linebackers - To quote the JS sentinal - Clay Matthews, Brad Jones and Desmond Bishop haven’t officially been cleared to practice. Green Bay kept nine at the position in 2009, but there aren’t nine worthy players this year. Ouch.

D-Line - good starters, huge question marks at backup spots, and Jolly is gone. Expect to see good 1st halfs, bad second as the starters get tired out. Especially since the packers offense, with no real running game, will be scoring quick and often, getting the D back on the field without enough rest.
Click to expand...
Bumping because this was interesting. It was the exact opposite.The defense has been good and the offense is what has let the Packers down (along with special teams).

Shields played well, Tramon showed he can play.

 
Pipes said:
Let's look at the other top teams in the NFC....NO, MN, Dal, Atlanta...is the Packers defense really that much worse than any of these teams? I don't think it is.
Click to expand...
MN and Dallas as "top Teams" in the NFC?? Is this 2009 :goodposting:
 
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