Why would you draft Reggie Bush in the early 3rd (1 Viewer)

[Joe T]

I'm failing to see the genius of this pick.

Much like Tatum Bell in the same range last year, Onterrio Smith the year before, you get the idea.

When you really begin to think as a value drafter, would you ever take Reggie Bush before round 5... with all the question marks surrounding him?

I don't get it.

More inefficiencies in the draft for me to take advantage of I guess.

 

[jurb26]

Much like Tatum Bell in the same range last year, Onterrio Smith the year before, you get the idea.

No, I don't get the idea. Reggie Bush could run circles around those 2 guys. HE is far more talented and that is why people would draft him so high... his talent level.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Because he could put up Westbrook's numbers?

 

[Joe T]

Much like Tatum Bell in the same range last year, Onterrio Smith the year before, you get the idea.

No, I don't get the idea. Reggie Bush could run circles around those 2 guys. HE is far more talented and that is why people would draft him so high... his talent level.

When did Deuce McAlister retire?

 

[Joe T]

Because he could put up Westbrook's numbers?

Could is the key world here.Not likely is a better description.

 

[Dancing Bear]

I'm with you, Joe_T ...

There are many more value picks other than a part-time RB/KR. Of course my overall answer would be determined by whether your league's scoring system allowed for individual KR/PR yardage and TD's to be a part of a RB/WR total scoring, but it is a reach to imagine him worth anywhere near a 3rd rounder ...

 

[jurb26]

Much like Tatum Bell in the same range last year, Onterrio Smith the year before, you get the idea.

No, I don't get the idea. Reggie Bush could run circles around those 2 guys. HE is far more talented and that is why people would draft him so high... his talent level.

When did Deuce McAlister retire?

How do you even know if Deuce is fully recovered?

 

[Joe T]

I'm talking about redraft leagues by the way. I feel like people here are talking dynasty.

 

[Joe T]

Much like Tatum Bell in the same range last year, Onterrio Smith the year before, you get the idea.

No, I don't get the idea. Reggie Bush could run circles around those 2 guys. HE is far more talented and that is why people would draft him so high... his talent level.

When did Deuce McAlister retire?

How do you even know if Deuce is fully recovered?

Do you believe he is not?Is that the reason why Bush is going 3rd round... because if it is I will have trouble holding back my laughter. People are taking Bush based on unsubstantiated speculation?

 

[jurb26]

Much like Tatum Bell in the same range last year, Onterrio Smith the year before, you get the idea.

No, I don't get the idea. Reggie Bush could run circles around those 2 guys. HE is far more talented and that is why people would draft him so high... his talent level.

When did Deuce McAlister retire?

How do you even know if Deuce is fully recovered?

Do you believe he is not?Is that the reason why Bush is going 3rd round... because if it is I will have trouble holding back my laughter. People are taking Bush based on unsubstantiated speculation?

Leave it to Joe T to try and start another

 

[Joe T]

Please find me one back that is said to be splitting carries going into the season to be worthy of a 3rd round pick.

 

[dgreen]

with all the question marks surrounding him?

Obviously, others don't see as many question marks surrounding Bush as you do. Aren't you the guy that said one of the reasons Bush would be a bust is because he's not fast?

 

[Dave Baker]

The only explanation I can come up with is that people are not examining the situation very closely and only look at his potential.

I believe Bush gets his share of touches and has some value this year, but I don't see touching him until closer to round six plus, depending on the depth of the league.

I said it on draft day, but there wans't a worse situation for Bush to move into than the Saints, at least in his rookie year. I'm about the biggest Bush fan out there, but I have him ranked at #32 for RBs, and only that high mostly because there are so many other situations where the starter is unclear and at least Bush seems to have a guarantee of respectable touches this year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

If it's a ppr legue, I really dont see an issue with a 3rd rounder on Bush

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Please find me one back that is said to be splitting carries going into the season to be worthy of a 3rd round pick.

Reggie Bush.What do I win ?

 

[KCC]

I just was watching NFL Live on ESPN and all of their panel thought Bush would score more than 10 TDs this year. I'm not saying that I agree with them, but I can understand why hearing reports like that might make some people go after him in the third round.

 

[Joe T]

Please find me one back that is said to be splitting carries going into the season to be worthy of a 3rd round pick.

Reggie Bush.What do I win ?

A very rough FF season.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Please find me one back that is said to be splitting carries going into the season to be worthy of a 3rd round pick.

Reggie Bush.What do I win ?

A very rough FF season.

I will be watching other people draft him in the 3rd round. I'll be picking up a wr thanks, or a starting rb.

 

[culdeus]

I'd at least want to see Deuce in some pre-season games first to get a feel for how he's doing.

 

[NoFBinLA]

As always it all depends what's on the board. I think he could have pretty good value as a late three if RB's have been run off the board in droves.

But if there have been a lot of WR and QBs taken and a lot of RB's slipped, I might look elsewhere.

He's risky but has some large upside. All depends on how my first picks went and what is sitting there at 3.??.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

For the record his ADP at XS is 4.4. (survivors don't include receptions)

His ADP at Ants is 3.5 (in leagues with receptions)

His ADP at Ants is 4.1 (in leagues without receptions)

 

[John Mamula]

Much like Tatum Bell in the same range last year, Onterrio Smith the year before, you get the idea.

No, I don't get the idea. Reggie Bush could run circles around those 2 guys. HE is far more talented and that is why people would draft him so high... his talent level.

When did Deuce McAlister retire?

How do you even know if Deuce is fully recovered?

Do you believe he is not?Is that the reason why Bush is going 3rd round... because if it is I will have trouble holding back my laughter. People are taking Bush based on unsubstantiated speculation?

Leave it to Joe T to try and start another

How is this ?Bush's ADP is 3.04 currently and as big of a USC homer as I am I would not take Bush in the third. Late 4th is as high as I would go.

There are so many other options in the 3rd round that have substantiated production that while they may not have the 5% upside that Bush does, you have a 80%+ better chance of doing better with a "value" pick than Bush there.

It is the players that people don't think have much sizzle (like Dunn, Tiki of years past, etc.) that put you in a position to win your leagues. Not hyped players like Bush.

I think Bush is the most talented RB to come out of the draft, but it takes talent + opportunity to achieve fantasy success.

The 3rd round is not where you gamble your draft away.

 

[radballs]

I'm failing to see the genius of this pick.

Much like Tatum Bell in the same range last year, Onterrio Smith the year before, you get the idea.

When you really begin to think as a value drafter, would you ever take Reggie Bush before round 5... with all the question marks surrounding him?

I don't get it.

More inefficiencies in the draft for me to take advantage of I guess.

According to FBG projections as well as other people's, he is easily worth a 3rd round pick in 1 ppr leagues.

 

[John Mamula]

For the record his ADP at XS is 4.4. (survivors don't include receptions)

His ADP at Ants is 3.5 (in leagues with receptions)

His ADP at Ants is 4.1 (in leagues without receptions)

For serious drafts from 4/25-5/22 his ADP is 3.04.

 

[John Mamula]

I'm failing to see the genius of this pick.

Much like Tatum Bell in the same range last year, Onterrio Smith the year before, you get the idea.

When you really begin to think as a value drafter, would you ever take Reggie Bush before round 5... with all the question marks surrounding him?

I don't get it.

More inefficiencies in the draft for me to take advantage of I guess.

According to FBG projections as well as other people's, he is easily worth a 3rd round pick in 1 ppr leagues.

Since when is FBG projections an indicator of accuracy?I will guarantee you I can draft 3 RBs a full round later and get better production.

 

[nag']

According to FBG projections as well as other people's, he is easily worth a 3rd round pick in 1 ppr leagues.

Most of these projections are based on pure speculation. Other than Bush's immense talent and high profile, there is not a single football-related indicator that can support the projected 60 receptions and 1300 total yards.

 

[LHUCKS]

I definitely would not draft Reggie Bush in the early 3rd round.

 

[Joe T]

According to FBG projections as well as other people's, he is easily worth a 3rd round pick in 1 ppr leagues.

That's why I'm asking the question.I don't think those are accurate projections.

 

[radballs]

According to FBG projections as well as other people's, he is easily worth a 3rd round pick in 1 ppr leagues.

That's why I'm asking the question.I don't think those are accurate projections.

What are your projections for him?

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

For the record his ADP at XS is 4.4. (survivors don't include receptions)

His ADP at Ants is 3.5 (in leagues with receptions)

His ADP at Ants is 4.1 (in leagues without receptions)

For serious drafts from 4/25-5/22 his ADP is 3.04.

depends on what setting you use.

 

[John Mamula]

For the record his ADP at XS is 4.4. (survivors don't include receptions)

His ADP at Ants is 3.5 (in leagues with receptions)

His ADP at Ants is 4.1 (in leagues without receptions)

For serious drafts from 4/25-5/22 his ADP is 3.04.

depends on what setting you use.

This was my point in a round about way.

 

[LHUCKS]

FWIW...I'd set the over/under for Bush Receptions at around 40.

But really nobody knows exactly how Bush is going to be used in his inaugural season...especially with holdout possibilities.

 

[John Mamula]

My projections for Bush are:

130 rushes for 520 yards and 3 TDs.

28 receptions for 240 yards and 2 TDs.

This gives him 134 points in a PPR league tied for the 34th RB ranking. This point production is in line with historic AVT for that RB slot.

Now there is a cluster of backs in this range where he could easily get bumped up to RB28 or so by only scoring 1 or 2 PPG more. However, to start to rank him in the top 25 he is going to have to take some serious production away from Deuce.

 

[John Mamula]

FWIW...I'd set the over/under for Bush Receptions at around 40.

But really nobody knows exactly how Bush is going to be used in his inaugural season...especially with holdout possibilities.

UNDER

 

[LHUCKS]

My projections for Bush are:

130 rushes for 520 yards and 3 TDs.

28 receptions for 240 yards and 2 TDs.

This gives him 134 points in a PPR league tied for the 34th RB ranking. This point production is in line with historic AVT for that RB slot.

Now there is a cluster of backs in this range where he could easily get bumped up to RB28 or so by only scoring 1 or 2 PPG more. However, to start to rank him in the top 25 he is going to have to take some serious production away from Deuce.

I don't think Deuce will carry the full load.You guys have to remember that FBG is ranking Bush lower than a lot of the big sites like ESPN and CBS where they both have him 14th.

The FBG ranking is actually pretty low for the industry.

 

[LHUCKS]

FWIW...I'd set the over/under for Bush Receptions at around 40.

But really nobody knows exactly how Bush is going to be used in his inaugural season...especially with holdout possibilities.

UNDER

we will see, like I said it's anybody's quess but if you have a weapon like Bush and Deuce is in your backfield, the only other way to get him the ball is via the air...and this is my best guess as to how they'll do it.We're not talking about Alvin Pearman here.

 

[LHUCKS]

Of the top 40 backs, Bush is probably the single hardest to project for...so many unknowns in this equation it's almost futile to try to project with certainty.

 

[John Mamula]

My projections for Bush are:

130 rushes for 520 yards and 3 TDs.

28 receptions for 240 yards and 2 TDs.

This gives him 134 points in a PPR league tied for the 34th RB ranking.  This point production is in line with historic AVT for that RB slot.

Now there is a cluster of backs in this range where he could easily get bumped up to RB28 or so by only scoring 1 or 2 PPG more.  However, to start to rank him in the top 25 he is going to have to take some serious production away from Deuce.

I don't think Deuce will carry the full load.You guys have to remember that FBG is ranking Bush lower than a lot of the big sites like ESPN and CBS where they both have him 14th.

The FBG ranking is actually pretty low for the industry.

That's ridiculous. Even if Bush can hit the top 25 there is still value a round later where I would pass to get a top WR and then get a value back a round later.I have no doubt that Bush will likely be a top notch stud within a year or two. But the majority of rookie backs do not get it going in year 1. If you draft rookie RBs you will be disappointed more times than not, at the expense of a boring pick that will give you consistant production at the RB or WR slot.

 

[radballs]

My projections for Bush are:

130 rushes for 520 yards and 3 TDs.

28 receptions for 240 yards and 2 TDs.

This gives him 134 points in a PPR league tied for the 34th RB ranking. This point production is in line with historic AVT for that RB slot.

Now there is a cluster of backs in this range where he could easily get bumped up to RB28 or so by only scoring 1 or 2 PPG more. However, to start to rank him in the top 25 he is going to have to take some serious production away from Deuce.

I strongly disagree that Bush will get less than 10 touches a game (130 rushes+28 receptions/16).

 

[LHUCKS]

My projections for Bush are:

130 rushes for 520 yards and 3 TDs.

28 receptions for 240 yards and 2 TDs.

This gives him 134 points in a PPR league tied for the 34th RB ranking.  This point production is in line with historic AVT for that RB slot.

Now there is a cluster of backs in this range where he could easily get bumped up to RB28 or so by only scoring 1 or 2 PPG more.  However, to start to rank him in the top 25 he is going to have to take some serious production away from Deuce.

I don't think Deuce will carry the full load.You guys have to remember that FBG is ranking Bush lower than a lot of the big sites like ESPN and CBS where they both have him 14th.

The FBG ranking is actually pretty low for the industry.

That's ridiculous.

what part is ridiculous...the other website rankings? If so I agree. It's amazing they pay those assclowns to publish those rankings.

 

[John Mamula]

FWIW...I'd set the over/under for Bush Receptions at around 40.

But really nobody knows exactly how Bush is going to be used in his inaugural season...especially with holdout possibilities.

UNDER

we will see, like I said it's anybody's quess but if you have a weapon like Bush and Deuce is in your backfield, the only other way to get him the ball is via the air...and this is my best guess as to how they'll do it.We're not talking about Alvin Pearman here.

What's wrong with Alvin Pearman?

I have no doubt that they will try to get him the ball through the air, but they still have Horn, Stallworth, Deuce, and FBG's love child Hilton to throw the ball to. Everything will have to go very right to get to 40+ receptions.

 

[John Mamula]

My projections for Bush are:

130 rushes for 520 yards and 3 TDs.

28 receptions for 240 yards and 2 TDs.

This gives him 134 points in a PPR league tied for the 34th RB ranking.  This point production is in line with historic AVT for that RB slot.

Now there is a cluster of backs in this range where he could easily get bumped up to RB28 or so by only scoring 1 or 2 PPG more.  However, to start to rank him in the top 25 he is going to have to take some serious production away from Deuce.

I don't think Deuce will carry the full load.You guys have to remember that FBG is ranking Bush lower than a lot of the big sites like ESPN and CBS where they both have him 14th.

The FBG ranking is actually pretty low for the industry.

That's ridiculous.

what part is ridiculous...the other website rankings? If so I agree. It's amazing they pay those assclowns to publish those rankings.

Yes, the other website rankings.

 

[diesel7982]

Anyone saying "I will not draft Reggie Bush in the top 3 rounds" at this point in the year is spouting hyperbole.

We have no indication about Deuce's health or how Reggie will be worked into the offense.

We also have several picks in the top 36 that have severe question marks, which Reggie Bush could easily be placed ahead of before the season.

 

[LHUCKS]

I have no doubt that they will try to get him the ball through the air, but they still have Horn, Stallworth, Deuce, and FBG's love child Hilton to throw the ball to.  Everything will have to go very right to get to 40+ receptions.

Think of it from an organizational/money/marketing perspective...Bush is being built up as the savior of New Orleans...they're going to get him a decent amount of targets.

 

[radballs]

But the majority of rookie backs do not get it going in year 1. If you draft rookie RBs you will be disappointed more times than not, at the expense of a boring pick that will give you consistant production at the RB or WR slot.

I generally agree with you but we are talking about the best college running back to enter the NFL since Marshall Faulk, right? There are exceptions to every rule.

 

[LHUCKS]

But the majority of rookie backs do not get it going in year 1.  If you draft rookie RBs you will be disappointed more times than not, at the expense of a boring pick that will give you consistant production at the RB or WR slot.

I generally agree with you but we are talking about the best college running back to enter the NFL since Marshall Faulk, right? There are exceptions to every rule.

This MUST play a factor in your rankings...unless your argument is that you think his ability is severely overrated.

For the record, I still wouldn't touch him in the third round in almost any format.

 

[John Mamula]

Anyone saying "I will not draft Reggie Bush in the top 3 rounds" at this point in the year is spouting hyperbole.

We have no indication about Deuce's health or how Reggie will be worked into the offense.

We also have several picks in the top 36 that have severe question marks, which Reggie Bush could easily be placed ahead of before the season.

I am not spouting hyperbole. I will not draft Reggie Bush in the first three rounds. The fact that I am saying this and am thought of as the biggest USC homer in the FFA might want to give some of you some pause. Or just barrel into your draft and swing for the fence at a draft home run.Even without Deuce I would have a very hard time drafting him in the 3rd round, but would probably do it. With Deuce no way.

 

[radballs]

Anyone saying "I will not draft Reggie Bush in the top 3 rounds" at this point in the year is spouting hyperbole. 

We have no indication about Deuce's health or how Reggie will be worked into the offense.

We also have several picks in the top 36 that have severe question marks, which Reggie Bush could easily be placed ahead of before the season.

I am not spouting hyperbole. I will not draft Reggie Bush in the first three rounds. The fact that I am saying this and am thought of as the biggest USC homer in the FFA might want to give some of you some pause. Or just barrel into your draft and swing for the fence at a draft home run.Even without Deuce I would have a very hard time drafting him in the 3rd round, but would probably do it. With Deuce no way.

Are you expecting the Deuce of old in the upcoming year? There's enough questions circling McAllister as there are about Bush's projections.

 

[LHUCKS]

Risk Factors

1) New Coach, new scheme

2) New QB

3) Rookie Season, adjustment to NFL

4) Health/Size concerns

5) # of targets/# of touches, competition for playing time

6) Holdout

Risk is off the charts.

 

[John Mamula]

But the majority of rookie backs do not get it going in year 1.  If you draft rookie RBs you will be disappointed more times than not, at the expense of a boring pick that will give you consistant production at the RB or WR slot.

I generally agree with you but we are talking about the best college running back to enter the NFL since Marshall Faulk, right? There are exceptions to every rule.

I agree. And having seen both Faulk and Bush play in college, Bush is scary good like Faulk was. I have no doubt that Bush will be something exceedingly special in the NFL. I just do not think it will be in year 1. Deuce has to get out of there before Bush can truly shine. Just like Steven Jackson coming to the Rams, or any other exceedingly talented RB (maybe not to the level of Bush but close) who could not make a significant impact in their first year in the NFL.I hope I am wrong as I would love this kid to set the NFL on fire. But for my fantasy team it is too big of a gamble that early in the draft when there are:

1. Rock solid locks in the 3rd available.

2. Value RBs are available later who will do just as well as Bush if not better.