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Will the Devil Rays win the AL East (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Finless
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I hope so
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Fresh blood is a good thing. Though ESPN may close down if the Yanks & BoSox somehow get shut out of the playoffs.
Finless
Footballguy
They'll always be the Devil Rays to me.Never forget
massraider
Footballguy
I have no idea what a "Ray" is.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I think if Ortiz comes back the Sox will take the division. Boston is 4-14 in their last 18 one run games. They have 39 of their remaining 70 games at home. TB has 31 home games and 43 road games left. Both teams play much better at home. At their current home and road winning percentages, Boston would end up with 96 wins and TB 98, so they are playing at a similar pace. TB has gone 17-5 over the 3+ weeks with 16 of those games at home.
I think Garza, Jackson, and Sonnanstine will start to struggle down the stretch because they've never pitched that many innings in a season at the MLB level. I also think TB has a much tougher schedule in August and September.
I think Garza, Jackson, and Sonnanstine will start to struggle down the stretch because they've never pitched that many innings in a season at the MLB level. I also think TB has a much tougher schedule in August and September.
Capella
Footballguy
Yudkin - pretty sure the Rays had the toughest schedule in baseball after the latest Sox series concluded. I wouldn't look at that as an asset for you guys.
I'm concerned about Sonny and Ejax, but they're more than fine as 4/5 guys, and Price will be up to put out any fires soon anyways.
I'm concerned about Sonny and Ejax, but they're more than fine as 4/5 guys, and Price will be up to put out any fires soon anyways.
Knightro
Footballguy
The Rays had the toughest schedule in baseball through this first 81 games by 19 percentage points. They were at .529 while the next team was at .510. The current SOS rankings are here. The Rays are #1 by .09 points now. I'm more concerned about Jackson who is frustrating. Sonnanstine does not kill himself with walks like Jackson does.
=Smackdown=
Footballguy
Voted yes.
Hopefully this is just the beginning of a decade of AL East dominance.
Hopefully this is just the beginning of a decade of AL East dominance.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Yes.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
i voted no, but there aren't many logical reasons to think they can't.
everyone says their rotation will wear out down the stretch b/c of their youth/not being used to pitching 200 innings. that may be true, but it's silly to assume the red sox rotation will hold up any better.
2 are young guys (lester and buchholz/masterson). dice-k may be okay, but last year he was pretty bad down the stretch in his 1st year with a 5 man rotation (worst months were aug and sept). wakefield won't wear out, but he's usually a below league-average pitcher after the ASB. beckett, of course, should be fine.
kaz and shields both pitched 200 innings last year and both at a cy young level during the 2nd half. garza/sonny/e-jax haven't done it, but like pretty much every team team in MLB, 3-5 will be a bit of a wildcard. the red sox, in particular, also have 2 pitchers (lester, buchhoz/masterson) that we don't exactly know what to expect from down the stretch and another that we can be confident won't be great (wake).
i like the rays side of kaz/shields vs. beckett/dice-k down the stretch.
the red sox should have the offensive advantage, especially if they get anything meaningful from papi, but the rays will score runs.
the rays have a better bullpen overall, but the sox have the better closer situation.
i think it's going to be a hell of a race.
everyone says their rotation will wear out down the stretch b/c of their youth/not being used to pitching 200 innings. that may be true, but it's silly to assume the red sox rotation will hold up any better.
2 are young guys (lester and buchholz/masterson). dice-k may be okay, but last year he was pretty bad down the stretch in his 1st year with a 5 man rotation (worst months were aug and sept). wakefield won't wear out, but he's usually a below league-average pitcher after the ASB. beckett, of course, should be fine.
kaz and shields both pitched 200 innings last year and both at a cy young level during the 2nd half. garza/sonny/e-jax haven't done it, but like pretty much every team team in MLB, 3-5 will be a bit of a wildcard. the red sox, in particular, also have 2 pitchers (lester, buchhoz/masterson) that we don't exactly know what to expect from down the stretch and another that we can be confident won't be great (wake).
i like the rays side of kaz/shields vs. beckett/dice-k down the stretch.
the red sox should have the offensive advantage, especially if they get anything meaningful from papi, but the rays will score runs.
the rays have a better bullpen overall, but the sox have the better closer situation.
i think it's going to be a hell of a race.
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the moops
Footballguy
Pre ASB85-85 4.26 ERA, .252 BAAPost ASB88-67 4.36 ERA, .253 BAASeems to be an almost identical pitcher. July has been his best month, followed by Sept/Oct. August has been his worst.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
pollardsvision
Footballguy
i was looking at the last 3 years, where his post ASB ERA is over 5.00.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
I think Tampa's bullpen will eventually do them in. Wildcard team.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Kazmir has also not been as dominant lately as he was in May. Last 4 starts, he has not gone 6 innings and has been scored on a bit. He could already be slowing down.
Shields and Garza have been absolute horses but how long before they wear down.
It will be interesting to see if this bullpen can hold up once it starts getting taxed a lot more in Aug/September. I have doubts.
Shields and Garza have been absolute horses but how long before they wear down.
It will be interesting to see if this bullpen can hold up once it starts getting taxed a lot more in Aug/September. I have doubts.
Capella
Footballguy
Uh...Boston's bullpen?
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Yeah Boston's pen has been shaky lately, just moved Masterson in there, that should help a bit. Okajima is still solid, I havent given up on him yet and Papelbon is great. Del Carmen had a great June, the jury is still out on him.Bottom line Boston has been there and they have a lot of depth, especially in pitching. I think its going to be tough for the Rays to hold them off in the end.
Power Monster
The Midnight Stalker
New stadium in the works- seems to always bring about a great season for some odd reason in professional sports.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
That would explain why the Yankees are playing record setting ball this year.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Hankie's Yankees are just playing possum until they make their big run to close out the stadium.David Yudkin said:
greedygoat
Footballguy
I hope so, got them at 35:1
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Nice bet GG, 35-1 is some sweet odds.
Finless
Footballguy
Might have to drop a few (hundred) units on it. I saw 9/2
greedygoat
Footballguy
It was 35:1 on 3/19/08.
Jackson did make 31 starts last year. although he's on pace for about 20 more innings this year. Garza also threw 170 innings between AA and the majors last year. Sonny threw 200 innings last year, 130 of them in the majors. I'm not sure your arguement is valid at all. Now if you wanted to argue that Jacksons peripherals don't mesh with his ERA, then you'd be sniffing in the right direction.
TitusIII
Footballguy
If Carlos Pena gets back on track, Shields/Kazmir/Garza(nice trade Minny) stay healthy, and the bullpen doesn't crap the bed, I don't see why not. Of course, the RedSox may play .700 ball the rest of the way, and the upcoming road-trips will probably bring the Rays back to the pack, but you have to like their chances.
Power Monster
The Midnight Stalker
The Yankees don't need a "push" the way the Rays do.David Yudkin said:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Sox climb back into first at the break . . .
Capella
Footballguy
wilked
Footballguy
Gonna be tight. I think the AL East Winner ends up with about 94 or 95 wins.
If the Rays go 0.500 the rest of the way, they end at 94 wins. With the vast majority of their remaining games on the road against very tough teams, I just can't see them going 0.500 over that stretch. Check out Sept:
3 Home vs. NYY
3 Away @ TOR
3 Away @ BOS
offday on 9/11
3 Away @NYY
3 Home vs. BOS
4 Home vs. MIN
4 Away @ BAL (including a doubleheader - so 4 games in 3 days)
4 Away @ DET
Brutal. They end up with 91 wins by my estimation (20-24 over the rest of the season)
If the Rays go 0.500 the rest of the way, they end at 94 wins. With the vast majority of their remaining games on the road against very tough teams, I just can't see them going 0.500 over that stretch. Check out Sept:
3 Home vs. NYY
3 Away @ TOR
3 Away @ BOS
offday on 9/11
3 Away @NYY
3 Home vs. BOS
4 Home vs. MIN
4 Away @ BAL (including a doubleheader - so 4 games in 3 days)
4 Away @ DET
Brutal. They end up with 91 wins by my estimation (20-24 over the rest of the season)
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Capella
Footballguy
I'm not sure where your backwards logic is coming from, but I'll address this anyways. The Rays have won 73% of their games at home this year. Let's say they come down from that pace a bit and say they win 62-63% here on out. That's 12 wins out of 19, and entirely reasonable to project.The Rays have won 47% of their road games this year. Let's say they stay on that pace here on out. That's 11 wins out of 23, for another 23 wins on the year to the 72 they now have. That'll be 95 wins, IF they come down a few wins from their home pace. ALso, I don't know where 23 games on the road against 19 constitutes a 'vast majority', but whatever. Spin it how you like.I acknowledge the September schedule is difficult, but they had the hardest schedule in the majors pre-ASB (or second-hardest) and they seemed to handle that fairly well.I think they'll finish with 94-95 wins.
Alias
Footballguy
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
It seems like 95-96 wins are the magic numbers.
It seems like 95-96 wins are the magic numbers.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm not sure how the Red Sox are 94.4% to make the playoffs with a 2.5 game lead in the wild card.
Capella
Footballguy
Rays need to go 14-23 for a sweltering 38% clip here on out to hit Thunder Dan's prediction here. Meanwhile they're now at 62% for the year which projects out roughly to 100 wins.I think you may be off a tad here, Dan-o. These picks for amusement purposes only though, I'm sure.
wilked
Footballguy
Dude, no one I know (yourself included, see above) expected them to continue this tear at this pace in the face of their injuries. You might consider chilling out on the rhetoric, I was just posting a prediction, and gave my reasons for it. They are playing almost at (yes, almost) the pace of the Rockies last year, finding ways to win night after night. In light of the recent run I gotta say I have a hard time seeing the Sox surpass them for the division.
I have 4 tix to the upcoming series in Boston, unfortunately don't think I can use them (knee surgery). Too bad...would love to be there
I have 4 tix to the upcoming series in Boston, unfortunately don't think I can use them (knee surgery). Too bad...would love to be there
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Stay the course. You can't backtrack now. You may as well just hold onto your prediction. We have seen September collapses before, they still have a tough schedule.
Sox will win the division.
Reaper
Footballguy
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Wow.... you just out-Wilked Wilked. Impressive.
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Reaper
Footballguy
You might consider chilling out on the rhetoric
Capella
Footballguy
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
I was going to wait until 9/1, but yes they will. What a great year for this team.
