Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
What sez the baseball forum?
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Will the Red Sox finish above .500 this year? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Raider Nation
- Start date
Finless
Footballguy
Terrible shtick here. If you want to put your clams up I'll give you 10-1.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Shtick? I'm quite serious. This team has enormous offensive deficiencies. You're not gonna win every game 2-1.And thanks for the offer, but I don't gamble.
Finless
Footballguy
Well surely we can do something here. Pitchers have been slow out of the gate and this team is clearly built around pitching and defense. I would also be very surprised to see them throw in the towel and not add a bat.Shtick? I'm quite serious. This team has enormous offensive deficiencies. You're not gonna win every game 2-1.And thanks for the offer, but I don't gamble.
the moops
Footballguy
Shtick? I'm quite serious. This team has enormous offensive deficiencies. You're not gonna win every game 2-1.And thanks for the offer, but I don't gamble.
Red Sox have scored 35 runs in 7 games. 5 runs a game would put them 4th in the AL last year. And currently 4th this year.If you are going to be all shticky, at least pick the pitching which has been terrible, rather than the offense which has been very good.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Wish I could come up with some CLEVER shtick....like how I'd be able to beat the #### out of a professional boxer.
shadyridr
Footballguy
you confusing me with someone else cheech?Pretty sure that was Matsuki
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
ORLY???Might wanna check and see which alises got popped before lying.Wish I could come up with some CLEVER shtick....
like how I'd be able to beat the #### out of a professional boxer.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Please post where I said I could beat a professional boxer. I just started the thread cheech.ORLY???Might wanna check and see which alises got popped before lying.
like how I'd be able to beat the #### out of a professional boxer.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
And if it was schtick 25 pages aint bad
You got HUMILIATED for 25 pages.Keep up the good work.
Finless
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
did u even read that thread moroff. I think I posted like 5 times in it. Everyone is abusing matsuki.And if it was schtick 25 pages aint bad
G
Guest
Guest
The baseball forum says that:
(a) The Red Sox were projected by Baseball Prospectus to win the division;
(b) Their only real offensive hole is at DH with Ortiz and they can always promote or trade for a DH;
© They have arguably the top starting pitching staff when you go 1 through 5;
(d) They haven't finished under .500 in more than 10 years and this is not their worst team in the last decade.
The 3 votes so far for, "No chance" have to based off of pure hate.
(a) The Red Sox were projected by Baseball Prospectus to win the division;
(b) Their only real offensive hole is at DH with Ortiz and they can always promote or trade for a DH;
© They have arguably the top starting pitching staff when you go 1 through 5;
(d) They haven't finished under .500 in more than 10 years and this is not their worst team in the last decade.
The 3 votes so far for, "No chance" have to based off of pure hate.
shadyridr
Footballguy
This is delusional. They have holes in the 5-9 spot and when Varitek plays thats yet another hole (yes I know JD Drew is solid OPS guy but hes always hurt).
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I still say that a full season of Martinez + Cameron + Beltre + Scutaro = more runs scored than half a season of Varitek + a banged up Lowell + the dreck thry had at SS + Bay.
So IMO, they will score more runs than last year and give up fewer runs with a better rotation and better defense = more wins than last year. But not by much.
So IMO, they will score more runs than last year and give up fewer runs with a better rotation and better defense = more wins than last year. But not by much.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
yes, 82-80
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
There's only going to be a certain number of wins in that division and with the Rays and Yanks looking like the top teams....the Sox might be on the short end. The rotation and defense are good.....but that lineup isn't going to scare anyone.
G
Guest
Guest
Scutaro and Beltre aren't offensive All Stars, but I wouldn't call them holes in the lineup.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
I don't think anyone knows what they are.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Good think the season is more than a week long then.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
I'm on record in the over under thread having them at 88 wins.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Really? A career reserve who had a career year and a 3B who's had one year with an OPS over .800 since his career year with the Dodgers arent holes?
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
I knew I shoulda gone with my gut and taken the Under 94 1/2, but instead, I listened to some Boston fans in the O/U thread and got off it.
To make matters worse, I switched my Under play to the Yankees (96). This is going to cost me quite a bit.
Somebody talked me off the Giants Over too, god ####### dammnit.
To make matters worse, I switched my Under play to the Yankees (96). This is going to cost me quite a bit.
Somebody talked me off the Giants Over too, god ####### dammnit.
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
the moops
Footballguy
Beltre has had the unique privilege of batting in 2 of the worst hitters parks in baseball. His road OPS is over 800 for his career.
Finless
Footballguy
Holes? HOLES?!?!?! Every team can't have an All-Star line-up 1-9. Of course there's some holes. We could probably plug them with another $80M.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Thats funny cuz Beltre, Scutaro, and Cameron WERE youre big FA signings
shadyridr
Footballguy
NEWSFLASH: Beltre did steroids in LA. Hes sucked ever since.
G
Guest
Guest
You're making his point, not yours.The Red Sox did sign Lackey in the off-season and extended Beckett 1 day into the season. So that was their major moves.The three guys above were all signed to 1 or 2 year contracts. They're placeholders until either someone comes along. But calling them holes in the lineup is going too far.
Finless
Footballguy
When you're a fan of a team that spends $50M more than anyone in the league you really shouldn't be talking about holes in lineups. The Sox payroll ballooned this year with the signing of Lackey and Beltre but they've got Lackey, Lester and Beckett locked up for 4+ years. They're paying Bill Hall close to $9M as a utility guy
and Ortiz and Lowell come off the books shaving $25M in payroll. Not really sure why but they've got north of $27M on the bench. And another 12.5M wasted on Ortiz. Lots of money is going to be shed and this team will change either mid-season or next season.And I honestly wouldn't call Beltre, Scutaro and Cameron holes. Didn't Cameron have 25+ HRs last year?
the moops
Footballguy
Red Sox are only paying 1.5 million of his salary.
Finless
Footballguy
You sure? Saw him on the payroll for $8.4 or some nonsense.
Homer @ RJ
Footballguy
If you look at Beltre's OBP the past 6 years or so, you may vomit afterwards. Some of that may be Safeco, but not everybody puts up a .315 OBP there.
I'm sure he'll rebound some in Fenway, but he's not a good hitter anymore. I guess anything can happen, but I would be pretty surprised.
Going from Manny to Bay to Ellsbury in LF is pretty good shtick though.
Sox are clearly better than a .500 team, but I like the Rays chances of beating them out for the Wild Card.
I'm sure he'll rebound some in Fenway, but he's not a good hitter anymore. I guess anything can happen, but I would be pretty surprised.
Going from Manny to Bay to Ellsbury in LF is pretty good shtick though.
Sox are clearly better than a .500 team, but I like the Rays chances of beating them out for the Wild Card.
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the moops
Footballguy
Beltre has never been a big OBP guy. He slugs, and plays the perhaps the best 3B defense of all time. But, I do agree, that he will rebound some, but he definitely is not a good hitter anymore.The Red Sox defense in LF went from historically terrible (Manny) to worst in the AL (Bay) to outrageously good (Ellsbury). We will have to see if this whole defense thing works out for the Sox, but without a doubt, if they pitch like they have the first week, it will be a long year.
the moops
Footballguy
7 million that MIL sent SEA came to BOS.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Serious question: Are you in your 20s?Guys I've seen with my own eyes who I'd take over Beltre to stop a grounder at 3B with my life on the line:
- Mike Schmidt
- Graig Nettles
- Robin Ventura
- Buddy Bell
And I'm not old enough to remember Brooks Robinson, but he was evidently better than any of them.
the moops
Footballguy
Guys I've seen with my own eyes who I'd take over Beltre to stop a grounder at 3B with my life on the line:
- Mike Schmidt
- Graig Nettles
- Robin Ventura
- Buddy Bell
And I'm not old enough to remember Brooks Robinson, but he was evidently better than any of them.
35 years old here. I have seen plenty of phenomenal defensive third basemen. I actually haven't seen that much of Beltre. I am just going with what a sizable majority of the saber folks say. Which is that Beltre is near the top, if not the top, amongst all third basemen.And I would take the opinion of the folks who have crunched the numbers any day over what your eyes, or my eyes have seen.
Why do you think you are such a great evaluator of defensive ability?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Guys I've seen with my own eyes who I'd take over Beltre to stop a grounder at 3B with my life on the line:
- Mike Schmidt
- Graig Nettles
- Robin Ventura
- Buddy Bell
And I'm not old enough to remember Brooks Robinson, but he was evidently better than any of them.
And I would take the opinion of the folks who have crunched the numbers any day over what your eyes, or my eyes have seen.
Why do you think you are such a great evaluator of defensive ability?
EASY there, Mr. Sensitive.Didn't mean to step on the toes of your saber boyfriends.
Homer @ RJ
Footballguy
Beltre may not even play the best defensive 3B in his own division anymore. You can certainly put Longo in that conversation.
The guy had a .304 OBP last year. You can't attribute that to Safeco. He just sucks.
The Sox starting pitching and defense may be great, but that offense doesn't seem stellar on paper. Cameron isn't an OBP machine, Ortiz looks like he his hitting with Roseanne strapped to his back and as others have said, Scutaro has really only put together one decent year.
In a division with two really good offenses (and very good SP and defenses as well), it seems like something is missing.
The guy had a .304 OBP last year. You can't attribute that to Safeco. He just sucks.
The Sox starting pitching and defense may be great, but that offense doesn't seem stellar on paper. Cameron isn't an OBP machine, Ortiz looks like he his hitting with Roseanne strapped to his back and as others have said, Scutaro has really only put together one decent year.
In a division with two really good offenses (and very good SP and defenses as well), it seems like something is missing.
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the moops
Footballguy
The Yankees are clearly a better offensive team. Not sure where you are getting this whole TB > BOS though.Position by position I have the Sox as having 2 huge advantages (C and 2B) and 2 big advantages (1B and CF). With Tampa having 1 huge advantage (3B) and 1 slight advantage (LF).C - Martinez >> Navarro1B - Youkilis > Pena2B - Pedroia >> Rodriguez/BrignacSS - Scutaro = Bartlett3B - Longoria >> BeltreLF - Crawford > EllsburyCF - Cameron > UptonRF - Drew = ZobristDH - Ortiz = Aybar/Burrell
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
On what planet would someone want Cameron over Upton?
Homer @ RJ
Footballguy
I certainly would not say Youk is a big advantage over Pena (considering someone brought up Cameron's homers last year, I'll remind you Pena hit 39 of them and then missed the final month), nor would I say Cameron is a big advantage over Upton. At all, actually. In fact, I would go the other way on that one.
The position by position breakdown is always pretty dumb, too. Takes out about 95% of the factors.
The position by position breakdown is always pretty dumb, too. Takes out about 95% of the factors.
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Homer @ RJ
Footballguy
That's a big Sox advantage, bro. Recognize.
the moops
Footballguy
I agree, in a sense, about the position by position breakdown. But it does lend some credence to the fact that the Sox are every good, if not a better offensive team than the Rays. Boston scored 70 more runs that TB last year. Not sure if the Rays make up that ground.Pena hits a lot of homeruns. His OPS is also 100 points lower than Youkilis. He also plays average to below average defense at first base, while Youkilis is one of the best in the AL.
the moops
Footballguy
Every planet but whatever one you are on?
Homer @ RJ
Footballguy
Wrong. According to Fangraphs, in 2008 the Rays 1B position (manned almost primarily by Pena) had the 3rd-best UZR in baseball at that position (7.0). The Sox, primarily manned by Youk were 12th at 1.6.The Rays 1B UZR fell into the toilet last year, but a lot of that had to do with Aybar and his wretched defense getting 5+ weeks at 1B. Pena is a far above-average defensive first-baseman.
