Will you be drafting Gates in the 3rd? (1 Viewer)

[Deuce'sWild]

Gates if far and away the best TE available, and will probably outscore the 2nd best TE by 30 pts or so...but you'll have to grab him in the 3rd round if you want him, making you weak at another position.

Is he valuable enough to you to grab him in the 3rd round, or will you waiting on someone later and stock up on WRs or RBs in the 3rd round?

I think if he falls to the 4th rd you almost have to take him, but I'm really on the fence as to whether I should grab him in the 3rd round. He does get you more points than any other TE almost every week, so there is an advantage there. But will you lose that advantage at WR...seems like the WR are less predictable and the TEs aren't (ie Gates is a lock every year to finish top 3)

 

[GreenNGold]

Gates if far and away the best TE available, and will probably outscore the 2nd best TE by 30 pts or so...but you'll have to grab him in the 3rd round if you want him, making you weak at another position. Is he valuable enough to you to grab him in the 3rd round, or will you waiting on someone later and stock up on WRs or RBs in the 3rd round? I think if he falls to the 4th rd you almost have to take him, but I'm really on the fence as to whether I should grab him in the 3rd round. He does get you more points than any other TE almost every week, so there is an advantage there. But will you lose that advantage at WR...seems like the WR are less predictable and the TEs aren't (ie Gates is a lock every year to finish top 3)

Definitely worth it. I took him at 2.11 in my draft.

 

[PahtyTom]

Yes.

 

[Steelnation]

Gates if far and away the best TE available, and will probably outscore the 2nd best TE by 30 pts or so...but you'll have to grab him in the 3rd round if you want him, making you weak at another position. Is he valuable enough to you to grab him in the 3rd round, or will you waiting on someone later and stock up on WRs or RBs in the 3rd round? I think if he falls to the 4th rd you almost have to take him, but I'm really on the fence as to whether I should grab him in the 3rd round. He does get you more points than any other TE almost every week, so there is an advantage there. But will you lose that advantage at WR...seems like the WR are less predictable and the TEs aren't (ie Gates is a lock every year to finish top 3)

Definitely worth it. I took him at 2.11 in my draft.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I have the 5th pick in the third of a 10 team league. If he's there I'm jumping.

 

[shadyridr]

Depends what WRs are left in the 3rd round. If a guy like Lee Evans (who I love) is available and I could make him my 2nd WR Id be all over that. Otherwise Gates it is.

 

[BLOX]

It will be tough having the 11th pick in my main redraft, as he went mid-2nd last year.

However, if he slides to 3.11 I'm all over it.

 

[massmarauder]

As always, it depends on what I got in the first two rounds, and what spot I have. If I have two solid RBs, then I might take him, but if I think he'll be there in the 4th, and there is someone better out there, like a Palmer, I'll go with the better player.

 

[BoomBoom]

I ended up with him in our auction. Got him for $21 ($200 cap, 10 teams, 16 player rosters...standard scoring, ppr).

My QB's and WR's are pretty weak, but my starting lineup should be okay.

QB: Eli/Delhomme

RB: Westbrook/Bush

WR: Colston/Galloway

Flex: Portis

TE: Gates

K: Elam

D/ST: NE

 

[ceo3west]

I'm taking V Davis in the 7th and will be thrilled that I passed on Gates in the 3rd for him

 

[Sclaffer]

I picked him last year in the 3rd and won the championship and was close in total points. If he's there in the 3rd again, at the 7th pick in that round, I will grab him again. I'm kinda doubting that he will be there, though.

 

[CalBear]

Gates if far and away the best TE available, and will probably outscore the 2nd best TE by 30 pts or so...but you'll have to grab him in the 3rd round if you want him, making you weak at another position. Is he valuable enough to you to grab him in the 3rd round, or will you waiting on someone later and stock up on WRs or RBs in the 3rd round?

In Anarchy 2, I took him with pick 1.03.There's no way the third-round WRs or RBs have similar VBD expectations.

 

[Ike Turner]

It will be tough having the 11th pick in my main redraft, as he went mid-2nd last year.However, if he slides to 3.11 I'm all over it.

I'm in the same spot. I love having Gates, as he's a lineup lock every non-bye week. Having Gates opens up another slot for me, as I don't have to carry a backup tight end...I just pick one up off the waiver wire during Gates off week.

 

[CalBear]

I'm taking V Davis in the 7th and will be thrilled that I passed on Gates in the 3rd for him

Yeah, because it's basically equivalent to have someone with a total of 20 NFL catches to his credit, and the guy who's been the #1 TE for three years in a row.

 

[ceo3west]

I'm taking V Davis in the 7th and will be thrilled that I passed on Gates in the 3rd for him

Yeah, because it's basically equivalent to have someone with a total of 20 NFL catches to his credit, and the guy who's been the #1 TE for three years in a row.

Well I can't predict injury, so assuming Davis puts up a full season or close to it, I beleive he'll put up top 3 TE #'s this year. Past years stats don't count this year - I think starting this yearDavis becomes a STUD.

 

[Jayrod]

It will be tough having the 11th pick in my main redraft, as he went mid-2nd last year.However, if he slides to 3.11 I'm all over it.

I'm in the same spot. I love having Gates, as he's a lineup lock every non-bye week. Having Gates opens up another slot for me, as I don't have to carry a backup tight end...I just pick one up off the waiver wire during Gates off week.

The same can be said for the top 9 TE's.You're saying that you'd consider sitting these guys if they weren't on their bye:GonzoHeapShockeyWittenCooleyWinslowDavisCrumpler

 

[AnonymousBob]

Where is that thread where SSOG and others were debating over the merits of drafting Gates early?

 

[Ike Turner]

It will be tough having the 11th pick in my main redraft, as he went mid-2nd last year.However, if he slides to 3.11 I'm all over it.

I'm in the same spot. I love having Gates, as he's a lineup lock every non-bye week. Having Gates opens up another slot for me, as I don't have to carry a backup tight end...I just pick one up off the waiver wire during Gates off week.

The same can be said for the top 9 TE's.You're saying that you'd consider sitting these guys if they weren't on their bye:GonzoHeapShockeyWittenCooleyWinslowDavisCrumpler

I guess it depends on how competitive your league is, but if I don't have Gates, I play TE matchup. I can't afford to just start Gonzo and hope that Herm doesn't use him as a blocker for most of the game. If I get a zero out of my TE position in the league I'm in, I lose. Every point counts, and I'm not going to let my pride get in the way of a potential victory. Crumpler was approaching the 'every week' stratosphere, but with Vick gone there's no telling what's going to become of him.edit: I'm sure a lot of owners that started Witten every week last year would take issue that he's an every week "must start".

 

[-jb-]

tough to pass on him in the third. especially with the depth at WR this year. you can get guys like walker/evans/driver in the fourth, which i would be perfectly happy with as my #1 guy.

 

[Jayrod]

It will be tough having the 11th pick in my main redraft, as he went mid-2nd last year.However, if he slides to 3.11 I'm all over it.

I'm in the same spot. I love having Gates, as he's a lineup lock every non-bye week. Having Gates opens up another slot for me, as I don't have to carry a backup tight end...I just pick one up off the waiver wire during Gates off week.

The same can be said for the top 9 TE's.You're saying that you'd consider sitting these guys if they weren't on their bye:GonzoHeapShockeyWittenCooleyWinslowDavisCrumpler

I guess it depends on how competitive your league is, but if I don't have Gates, I play TE matchup. I can't afford to just start Gonzo and hope that Herm doesn't use him as a blocker for most of the game. If I get a zero out of my TE position in the league I'm in, I lose. Every point counts, and I'm not going to let my pride get in the way of a potential victory. Crumpler was approaching the 'every week' stratosphere, but with Vick gone there's no telling what's going to become of him.

Really? Are tight ends weighted heavily? I think that setup is a little odd that the TE is such a major factor. Who do you start over these guys then? Heath Miller? Ben Watson? My point is that there is no better option at TE from week to week and if you are really sweating you TE matchups when you have Gonzalez on your team, than your team has bigger problems than the TE position. Do tight ends really have matchup issues? I've never really seen it, but I'd be interested in the analysis that goes into play with trying to determine whether to start Todd Heap or Jeramy Stevens. And if someone really goes through this, what is your success rate?

 

[Ike Turner]

It will be tough having the 11th pick in my main redraft, as he went mid-2nd last year.However, if he slides to 3.11 I'm all over it.

I'm in the same spot. I love having Gates, as he's a lineup lock every non-bye week. Having Gates opens up another slot for me, as I don't have to carry a backup tight end...I just pick one up off the waiver wire during Gates off week.

The same can be said for the top 9 TE's.You're saying that you'd consider sitting these guys if they weren't on their bye:GonzoHeapShockeyWittenCooleyWinslowDavisCrumpler

I guess it depends on how competitive your league is, but if I don't have Gates, I play TE matchup. I can't afford to just start Gonzo and hope that Herm doesn't use him as a blocker for most of the game. If I get a zero out of my TE position in the league I'm in, I lose. Every point counts, and I'm not going to let my pride get in the way of a potential victory. Crumpler was approaching the 'every week' stratosphere, but with Vick gone there's no telling what's going to become of him.

Do tight ends really have matchup issues? I've never really seen it, but I'd be interested in the analysis that goes into play with trying to determine whether to start Todd Heap or Jeramy Stevens. And if someone really goes through this, what is your success rate?

I review a lot of sites, and a lot of message boards to determine the pros and cons of who to start at every position in a given week. This site does a great job of exposing why a particular tight end has a good/bad matchup on a particular week. If I've got Cooley and Shockey on my team, you're damn right I'm going to see the pluses and minuses of each player that week.Success rate? Hmm, I'd say there's more hits than misses. But as close as the scores are in our league, 6 points one way or the other is a major swing.Seeing some of the posts on this board, with people listing what I feel look like super teams ("I took LT first overall and couldn't believe when Peyton Manning and Shaun Alexander slipped back to me on my wraparound picks") I would understand that some leagues have huge blowouts and a 10 point showing by TE doesn't matter. In my league, a two touchdown performance by your TE almost assures victory, based on the competitiveness of the rosters involved.

 

[Jayrod]

It will be tough having the 11th pick in my main redraft, as he went mid-2nd last year.However, if he slides to 3.11 I'm all over it.

I'm in the same spot. I love having Gates, as he's a lineup lock every non-bye week. Having Gates opens up another slot for me, as I don't have to carry a backup tight end...I just pick one up off the waiver wire during Gates off week.

The same can be said for the top 9 TE's.You're saying that you'd consider sitting these guys if they weren't on their bye:GonzoHeapShockeyWittenCooleyWinslowDavisCrumpler

I guess it depends on how competitive your league is, but if I don't have Gates, I play TE matchup. I can't afford to just start Gonzo and hope that Herm doesn't use him as a blocker for most of the game. If I get a zero out of my TE position in the league I'm in, I lose. Every point counts, and I'm not going to let my pride get in the way of a potential victory. Crumpler was approaching the 'every week' stratosphere, but with Vick gone there's no telling what's going to become of him.

Do tight ends really have matchup issues? I've never really seen it, but I'd be interested in the analysis that goes into play with trying to determine whether to start Todd Heap or Jeramy Stevens. And if someone really goes through this, what is your success rate?

I review a lot of sites, and a lot of message boards to determine the pros and cons of who to start at every position in a given week. This site does a great job of exposing why a particular tight end has a good/bad matchup on a particular week. If I've got Cooley and Shockey on my team, you're damn right I'm going to see the pluses and minuses of each player that week.Success rate? Hmm, I'd say there's more hits than misses. But as close as the scores are in our league, 6 points one way or the other is a major swing.Seeing some of the posts on this board, with people listing what I feel look like super teams ("I took LT first overall and couldn't believe when Peyton Manning and Shaun Alexander slipped back to me on my wraparound picks") I would understand that some leagues have huge blowouts and a 10 point showing by TE doesn't matter. In my league, a two touchdown performance by your TE almost assures victory, based on the competitiveness of the rosters involved.

Well if you're looking at Cooley vs. Shockey, that's something else entirely. Do you draft two top ten QB's as well? I assumed that you would only have one top ten TE and thus be looking at him vs. some TE in the 10-20 range.

 

[Blackstar]

early 3rd? can't do it. Late third is certainly a possibility. subtract about 30 points for the #1 WR and when the WRs hit that point, that's when its okay to draft hi, any earlier and its a overvalue pick.

 

[crimsonrebel]

ive done about 20 mocks, and it all depends on the roster reqirements, and BPA, and who you draft in rounds 1-2. If you go RB/Rb, then hes a solid late third rounder, but remember his stsats have dropped off each of the last two years, so you MAY be better waiting on a TE.

 

[inca911]

Gates if far and away the best TE available, and will probably outscore the 2nd best TE by 30 pts or so...but you'll have to grab him in the 3rd round if you want him, making you weak at another position. Is he valuable enough to you to grab him in the 3rd round, or will you waiting on someone later and stock up on WRs or RBs in the 3rd round?

Depending on scoring system, but assuming typical ppr, Gates outscores TE#2 by 40 points, and outscores TE#10 by about 116 points. 40 points is the difference between WR#18 and WR#36, and 116 points is the difference between WR#1 and WR#36. Gates is therefore worth more than WR#1.Gates + WR#12 (worst possible scenario is all WRs get drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 250 points = 523 pointsGates + WR#8 (more reasonable that not all WRs are drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 264 points = 534 pointsWR#1 + TE#3 (assuming top two TEs get drafted) = 287 points + 222 points = 509 pointsQB#1 and QB#2 are similarly separated by 40 points, but PManning outscores QB#10 by only 71 points. So an argument can be made that Gates is even more valuable tham PManning. Gates in the third in a draft is a definite yes for me (unless I know 100% that my leaguemates will let him fall to me in the fourth).

 

[dickey moe]

The one thing about drafting him in the 3rd round is, if he doesn't live up to expectations your team is pretty much screwed. I like someone such as Heap better in the 6th (or 7th, as I was able to snag him in one draft).

 

[clinton_c]

I have no problem drafting Gates in the third because I traded for an extra 3rd round pick just for that reason. (I have done this in the past with Gonzalez).

There real question is can I wait till 3.8 to grab him, or should I pull the trigger at 3.4. I have been studying the GM's between my two picks, and if they have ever drafted a TE that high.

If Roy Williams is there at 3.4 I will probably have to take him, and hope gates falls to 3.8

that will set me up to take the top QB on the 4th round turn at 4.5

So my draft could be:

Keeper: Addai

2.5:T.Holt

3.4:Roy Williams

3.8:A.gates

4.5:Bulgar

considering we start 1 RB and a flex player, I am licking my chops at that draft.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Depending on scoring system, but assuming typical ppr, Gates outscores TE#2 by 40 points, and outscores TE#10 by about 116 points. 40 points is the difference between WR#18 and WR#36, and 116 points is the difference between WR#1 and WR#36. Gates is therefore worth more than WR#1.Gates + WR#12 (worst possible scenario is all WRs get drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 250 points = 523 pointsGates + WR#8 (more reasonable that not all WRs are drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 264 points = 534 pointsWR#1 + TE#3 (assuming top two TEs get drafted) = 287 points + 222 points = 509 pointsQB#1 and QB#2 are similarly separated by 40 points, but PManning outscores QB#10 by only 71 points. So an argument can be made that Gates is even more valuable tham PManning. Gates in the third in a draft is a definite yes for me (unless I know 100% that my leaguemates will let him fall to me in the fourth).

outstanding contributionand this is just a gut feeling but i think this could be a career year, even by Gates lofty standards. LT is LT but you have to expect a little regression to the mean in his (LTs) TD totals so Gates may get some of those. And while their WR might be marginally better than last year, i dont think its significantly better. (fwiw i like Kaeding for these reasons as well).Then Norv seems to be completely enamored with his new toy..talking about lining Gates up in even more places.OK last completely trivial tidbit. SD hosts Denver on MNF in Week 16 on Christmas Eve. Thatd be a fun Christmas present to wrap up a championship with gates on the last relevant night of FF for 2007...Disclaimer: I dont own him and have never owned him. I took the exact opposite stance last year and was the 2nd to last person in my league to draft a TE last year. However, I am considering jumping on Gates this year.

 

[Blackstar]

Gates if far and away the best TE available, and will probably outscore the 2nd best TE by 30 pts or so...but you'll have to grab him in the 3rd round if you want him, making you weak at another position. Is he valuable enough to you to grab him in the 3rd round, or will you waiting on someone later and stock up on WRs or RBs in the 3rd round?

Depending on scoring system, but assuming typical ppr, Gates outscores TE#2 by 40 points, and outscores TE#10 by about 116 points. 40 points is the difference between WR#18 and WR#36, and 116 points is the difference between WR#1 and WR#36. Gates is therefore worth more than WR#1.Gates + WR#12 (worst possible scenario is all WRs get drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 250 points = 523 pointsGates + WR#8 (more reasonable that not all WRs are drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 264 points = 534 pointsWR#1 + TE#3 (assuming top two TEs get drafted) = 287 points + 222 points = 509 pointsQB#1 and QB#2 are similarly separated by 40 points, but PManning outscores QB#10 by only 71 points. So an argument can be made that Gates is even more valuable tham PManning. Gates in the third in a draft is a definite yes for me (unless I know 100% that my leaguemates will let him fall to me in the fourth).

sounds good but you're not taking into account that the #1 TE scores almost 100 points less than WR#1 and up to 60 points less than WR#8(in my league where you get TD length bonuses), so in theory, if you can grab 2 top 8 WRs, you don't need to make those points up anywhere; the person with the #1 TE does. 1WR(232) + 8WR(200) + 3TE(116) = 5371WR(232) + 1TE(138) + 12WR(158) = 528And you're really screwed if an early drafter gets a StuD Top 3 RB, and 2 Top 5 WRs on the wayback in rounds 2/3.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Gates if far and away the best TE available, and will probably outscore the 2nd best TE by 30 pts or so...but you'll have to grab him in the 3rd round if you want him, making you weak at another position. Is he valuable enough to you to grab him in the 3rd round, or will you waiting on someone later and stock up on WRs or RBs in the 3rd round?

Depending on scoring system, but assuming typical ppr, Gates outscores TE#2 by 40 points, and outscores TE#10 by about 116 points. 40 points is the difference between WR#18 and WR#36, and 116 points is the difference between WR#1 and WR#36. Gates is therefore worth more than WR#1.Gates + WR#12 (worst possible scenario is all WRs get drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 250 points = 523 pointsGates + WR#8 (more reasonable that not all WRs are drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 264 points = 534 pointsWR#1 + TE#3 (assuming top two TEs get drafted) = 287 points + 222 points = 509 pointsQB#1 and QB#2 are similarly separated by 40 points, but PManning outscores QB#10 by only 71 points. So an argument can be made that Gates is even more valuable tham PManning. Gates in the third in a draft is a definite yes for me (unless I know 100% that my leaguemates will let him fall to me in the fourth).

sounds good but you're not taking into account that the #1 TE scores almost 100 points less than WR#1 and up to 60 points less than WR#8(in my league where you get TD length bonuses), so in theory, if you can grab 2 top 8 WRs, you don't need to make those points up anywhere; the person with the #1 TE does. 1WR(232) + 8WR(200) + 3TE(116) = 5371WR(232) = 1TE(138) + 12WR(158) = 528And you're really screwed if an early drafter gets a StuD Top 3 RB, and 2 Top 5 WRs on the wayback in rounds 2/3.

ill wait for incas response Blackstar but isnt part of Gates appeal also the lack of ambiguity? ask 10 "experts" who the #1TE will be and its nearly unanimous that the answer is Gates. ask who will be WR8-12ish and you will get several different answers. I am paying very close attention to this thread and trying to convince myself which way to go..

 

[Stinkin Ref]

The one thing about drafting him in the 3rd round is, if he doesn't live up to expectations your team is pretty much screwed. I like someone such as Heap better in the 6th (or 7th, as I was able to snag him in one draft).

Aren't you pretty much screwed if your 3rd rounder doesn't live up to expectations.....no matter who you draft?

 

[Blackstar]

ill wait for incas response Blackstar but isnt part of Gates appeal also the lack of ambiguity? ask 10 "experts" who the #1TE will be and its nearly unanimous that the answer is Gates. ask who will be WR8-12ish and you will get several different answers. I am paying very close attention to this thread and trying to convince myself which way to go.. very good point. let's turn injuries off for a second.

I'm sitting at #3 in my 12 team redraft. When I take LJ and have a shot at say, Holt & RWayne/Javon Walker on the wayback in rounds 2/3, in my eyes, I'm almost guaranteeing 2 top 5s(based on track record). The cat sitting at 8 picks up RudiJ, Ocho Cinco, and Gates, it almost evens itself out. That's why I initially said, early=no late = probably.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Gates if far and away the best TE available, and will probably outscore the 2nd best TE by 30 pts or so...but you'll have to grab him in the 3rd round if you want him, making you weak at another position. Is he valuable enough to you to grab him in the 3rd round, or will you waiting on someone later and stock up on WRs or RBs in the 3rd round?

Depending on scoring system, but assuming typical ppr, Gates outscores TE#2 by 40 points, and outscores TE#10 by about 116 points. 40 points is the difference between WR#18 and WR#36, and 116 points is the difference between WR#1 and WR#36. Gates is therefore worth more than WR#1.Gates + WR#12 (worst possible scenario is all WRs get drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 250 points = 523 pointsGates + WR#8 (more reasonable that not all WRs are drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 264 points = 534 pointsWR#1 + TE#3 (assuming top two TEs get drafted) = 287 points + 222 points = 509 pointsQB#1 and QB#2 are similarly separated by 40 points, but PManning outscores QB#10 by only 71 points. So an argument can be made that Gates is even more valuable tham PManning. Gates in the third in a draft is a definite yes for me (unless I know 100% that my leaguemates will let him fall to me in the fourth).

sounds good but you're not taking into account that the #1 TE scores almost 100 points less than WR#1 and up to 60 points less than WR#8(in my league where you get TD length bonuses), so in theory, if you can grab 2 top 8 WRs, you don't need to make those points up anywhere; the person with the #1 TE does. 1WR(232) + 8WR(200) + 3TE(116) = 5371WR(232) = 1TE(138) + 12WR(158) = 528And you're really screwed if an early drafter gets a StuD Top 3 RB, and 2 Top 5 WRs on the wayback in rounds 2/3.

ill wait for incas response Blackstar but isnt part of Gates appeal also the lack of ambiguity? ask 10 "experts" who the #1TE will be and its nearly unanimous that the answer is Gates. ask who will be WR8-12ish and you will get several different answers. I am paying very close attention to this thread and trying to convince myself which way to go..

You're comparing Apples to Oranges. You can't compare positions to other positions when talking points, you look for the best value from each position and when you can get that value each round (Chic def may outscore Gates, but you wouldn't take them in the 3rd round). You will be competing against that owners players at each position, the key is to have the best contribution overall, so if you can gain an advantage at certain positions, and not lose as much from others is the key. You don't have to be better at each position to win, if you have a big advantage in one it may make up for the lack thereof in another. Had a few beers, hope this makes sense.

 

[dickey moe]

The one thing about drafting him in the 3rd round is, if he doesn't live up to expectations your team is pretty much screwed. I like someone such as Heap better in the 6th (or 7th, as I was able to snag him in one draft).

Aren't you pretty much screwed if your 3rd rounder doesn't live up to expectations.....no matter who you draft?

Not always -- most people use their 3rd Round pick on a RB2 (hopefully, if they're still available) or a WR1 or WR2. I'd argue that this year in particular, you better be sure Gates is going to produce if you snag him in the 3rd Round, because you're going to be hurting at the RB2 and/or WR 1 or WR 2 position.

 

[s_ezy]

if hes there in the third i will take him

 

[inca911]

Depending on scoring system, but assuming typical ppr, Gates outscores TE#2 by 40 points, and outscores TE#10 by about 116 points. 40 points is the difference between WR#18 and WR#36, and 116 points is the difference between WR#1 and WR#36. Gates is therefore worth more than WR#1.Gates + WR#12 (worst possible scenario is all WRs get drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 250 points = 523 pointsGates + WR#8 (more reasonable that not all WRs are drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 264 points = 534 pointsWR#1 + TE#3 (assuming top two TEs get drafted) = 287 points + 222 points = 509 pointsQB#1 and QB#2 are similarly separated by 40 points, but PManning outscores QB#10 by only 71 points. So an argument can be made that Gates is even more valuable tham PManning. Gates in the third in a draft is a definite yes for me (unless I know 100% that my leaguemates will let him fall to me in the fourth).

sounds good but you're not taking into account that the #1 TE scores almost 100 points less than WR#1 and up to 60 points less than WR#8(in my league where you get TD length bonuses), so in theory, if you can grab 2 top 8 WRs, you don't need to make those points up anywhere; the person with the #1 TE does. 1WR(232) + 8WR(200) + 3TE(116) = 5371WR(232) + 1TE(138) + 12WR(158) = 528And you're really screwed if an early drafter gets a StuD Top 3 RB, and 2 Top 5 WRs on the wayback in rounds 2/3.

Projections are of course key to the determination of value. You have TE#1 at 138 total points, and TE#3 at 116, or an 18 point spread between TE#1 and #3. I have a 51 point spread between TEs #1 and #3. That 33 point variation is going to make a difference in how we value the players. Those who don't feel Gates is 116 points better than TE#10 and 40 points better than TE#2 will wait for him, or rely on a different TE in a later round.You have WR#1 at 232 points, and WR#8 at 200 points, or 32 points different. Your WR#12 is somehow only 158 points, or 42 points worse than WR#12. My WR#12 is only 14 points worse than WR#8. Again, that's a 28 point difference.The TE and WR scoring differences in our two examples are over 60 total points, so we should come to different conclusions.In my scoring (ppr league with Gates getting 40 more catches than TE#10), getting TE#1 = 40 point advantage over guy with TE#2, and 116 point advantage over the guy taking TE#10 at the end. I can take a 10 position hit at WR or RB, and Gates will easily make up the difference as the WR and RB positions don't have the same dropoff across 10 positions. 10 positions at WR or RB is a lot less than 40 points, so putting TE#1 in the bank is a net positive.

 

[kensat30]

If Gates goes bananas and racks up 100/1300/16 this year and shatters TE receiving records, will he be a first round pick next year? That's what happened with Peyton Manning a few years back...

The 3rd round is a GREAT time to pickup Elite TEs and QBs.

 

[David Yudkin]

Gates' ADP is currently at 31 overall. At that point, 9 WR on average have come off the board with the next player on the list a WR.

Based on Dodds' projections, the #11 WR is pegged for 168 points. Gates is projected for 151. However, there's essentially a 30 point drop off to thenext TE. But there are 13 WR projected to be within 30 points of the #11 WR.

So, yes, Gates is worth taking.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

For those that would take Gates, which WR would you take over Gates? I am thinking Smith, Chad Johnson, Harrison, Owens, Holt, and Wayne. What about Walker, Houshmanzadeh, Evans, Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Driver, R Moss, Boldin, Colston, or A. Johnson?

 

[clinton_c]

For those that would take Gates, which WR would you take over Gates? I am thinking Smith, Chad Johnson, Harrison, Owens, Holt, and Wayne. What about Walker, Houshmanzadeh, Evans, Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Driver, R Moss, Boldin, Colston, or A. Johnson?

Thats a good question.S.Smith

C.Johnson

M.Harrison

T.Owens

T.Holt

R.Wayne

R.Williams

Fitzgerald

A.Gates

Houshmanzadeh

Boldin

A.Johnson

L.Evans

D.Driver

M.Colston

R.Moss

 

[BigTex]

No, I'll be taking J. Witten in the 4th or 5th.

 

[BAT1man]

The one thing about drafting him in the 3rd round is, if he doesn't live up to expectations your team is pretty much screwed. I like someone such as Heap better in the 6th (or 7th, as I was able to snag him in one draft).

Aren't you pretty much screwed if your 3rd rounder doesn't live up to expectations.....no matter who you draft?

No. Last season my 3rd rounder was Chris Chambers and despite him sucking in dramatic fashion, I still won the league championship and total points.

 

[BAT1man]

Gates scored 258 points last season compared to Harrison's 291 points as the #1 WR, per my league's scoring. Based upon VBD, Gates had much more value than Harrison.

This season Gates will be even better with Rivers being a more comfortable QB and not being locked down by a conservative Shotty.

I take Gates in the 3rd in any situation and am considering taking him late 2nd round depending on draft slotting.

 

[Jungle1]

Gates' ADP is currently at 31 overall. At that point, 9 WR on average have come off the board with the next player on the list a WR.Based on Dodds' projections, the #11 WR is pegged for 168 points. Gates is projected for 151. However, there's essentially a 30 point drop off to thenext TE. But there are 13 WR projected to be within 30 points of the #11 WR.So, yes, Gates is worth taking.

I agree it isn't a bad pick, but it may be more of a wash than you think. If you are picking in the middle of the pack, by the time it gets back to your 4th round pick, a good portion of those 13 WR you talked about are going to be gone (3rd/4th is prime WR drafting slots). Lets for the sake of arguement assume 9 more WR are drafted before you pick again, and you are going to take either TE/WR or WR/TE in the 3rd and 4th. Most likely, there are going to be zero TE taken before your next pick. So you are either going to get #1TE/#20WR or #11WR/#2TEAccording to Dodds' projections:#1TE (151 pts) + #20WR (142 pts) = 293 pts#11WR (168 pts) + #2TE (123 pts) = 291 ptsNot much difference. Getting Gates mid 3rd is probably fair value, but certainly not a bargain.

 

[tamales]

Now Im leaning towards taking him. I love Lee Evans this year but I see his ADP is in the 4th round. So maybe he will slip. Depends who I take in the 2nd round.

 

[conboy]

I have the 2nd pick in the 3rd round, and have thought above taking him, but it seems too early in the 3rd round to grab him, especially with Carson Palmer, and some top WR still out there at that position.

 

[tamales]

No, I'll be taking J. Witten in the 4th or 5th.

Even though his ADP is in the 8th round?

 

[David Yudkin]

Gates' ADP is currently at 31 overall. At that point, 9 WR on average have come off the board with the next player on the list a WR.Based on Dodds' projections, the #11 WR is pegged for 168 points. Gates is projected for 151. However, there's essentially a 30 point drop off to thenext TE. But there are 13 WR projected to be within 30 points of the #11 WR.So, yes, Gates is worth taking.

I agree it isn't a bad pick, but it may be more of a wash than you think. If you are picking in the middle of the pack, by the time it gets back to your 4th round pick, a good portion of those 13 WR you talked about are going to be gone (3rd/4th is prime WR drafting slots). Lets for the sake of arguement assume 9 more WR are drafted before you pick again, and you are going to take either TE/WR or WR/TE in the 3rd and 4th. Most likely, there are going to be zero TE taken before your next pick. So you are either going to get #1TE/#20WR or #11WR/#2TEAccording to Dodds' projections:#1TE (151 pts) + #20WR (142 pts) = 293 pts#11WR (168 pts) + #2TE (123 pts) = 291 ptsNot much difference. Getting Gates mid 3rd is probably fair value, but certainly not a bargain.

While it may not be much difference, I personally have a lot more faith in Gates' production than I do in any of the WRs after the first half dozen or so and also than the next set of TEs. I also think the upside of Gates is leaps and bounds higher than that of any of the other tight ends, so for my money it's worth it.Any of the WR in the bottom 10 through the top 20 all have a chance to outperform their draft slot and jump into the top 10, but IMO they could just as easily underperform and fall into the 20s. (That has happened a fair amount in recent seasons). Barring injury, we pretty much know what Gates is going to do.That being said, there may be WRs still on the board that I would still take over Gates (and not necessarily ones that everyone else would take. I think a lot would depend on the scoring system and the starting requirements for me to really comment on who I'd probably take in that spot. For example, in some leagues I am in with 2 PPR for TE I have taken Gates in the first round. In another that does not require starting a TE, I passed on him in the third.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Gates' ADP is currently at 31 overall. At that point, 9 WR on average have come off the board with the next player on the list a WR.Based on Dodds' projections, the #11 WR is pegged for 168 points. Gates is projected for 151. However, there's essentially a 30 point drop off to thenext TE. But there are 13 WR projected to be within 30 points of the #11 WR.So, yes, Gates is worth taking.

I agree it isn't a bad pick, but it may be more of a wash than you think. If you are picking in the middle of the pack, by the time it gets back to your 4th round pick, a good portion of those 13 WR you talked about are going to be gone (3rd/4th is prime WR drafting slots). Lets for the sake of arguement assume 9 more WR are drafted before you pick again, and you are going to take either TE/WR or WR/TE in the 3rd and 4th. Most likely, there are going to be zero TE taken before your next pick. So you are either going to get #1TE/#20WR or #11WR/#2TEAccording to Dodds' projections:#1TE (151 pts) + #20WR (142 pts) = 293 pts#11WR (168 pts) + #2TE (123 pts) = 291 ptsNot much difference. Getting Gates mid 3rd is probably fair value, but certainly not a bargain.

And you would not even take the #2 TE the next round. You could wait 3-4 more rounds and get one of the next 6 TE, who are all relatively close in value. Looking at it even further the comparison becomes3rd round WR (#11), 4th round WR (#20) and 6th/7th round TEor3rd round TE (Gates), 4th round WR (#20) and 6th/7th round WR (estimating to be about #30). The real comparison for me is Gates and Glenn or Chambers vs. Cooley or VD or Winslow and Evans. Both pairs get the #20 WR. I'd rather have the pair with Evans over Gates and Glenn.

 

[tamales]

Gates' ADP is currently at 31 overall. At that point, 9 WR on average have come off the board with the next player on the list a WR.

Based on Dodds' projections, the #11 WR is pegged for 168 points. Gates is projected for 151. However, there's essentially a 30 point drop off to thenext TE. But there are 13 WR projected to be within 30 points of the #11 WR.

So, yes, Gates is worth taking.

I agree it isn't a bad pick, but it may be more of a wash than you think. If you are picking in the middle of the pack, by the time it gets back to your 4th round pick, a good portion of those 13 WR you talked about are going to be gone (3rd/4th is prime WR drafting slots). Lets for the sake of arguement assume 9 more WR are drafted before you pick again, and you are going to take either TE/WR or WR/TE in the 3rd and 4th. Most likely, there are going to be zero TE taken before your next pick. So you are either going to get #1TE/#20WR or #11WR/#2TE

According to Dodds' projections:

#1TE (151 pts) + #20WR (142 pts) = 293 pts

#11WR (168 pts) + #2TE (123 pts) = 291 pts

Not much difference. Getting Gates mid 3rd is probably fair value, but certainly not a bargain.

And you would not even take the #2 TE the next round. You could wait 3-4 more rounds and get one of the next 6 TE, who are all relatively close in value. Looking at it even further the comparison becomes3rd round WR (#11), 4th round WR (#20) and 6th/7th round TE

or

3rd round TE (Gates), 4th round WR (#20) and 6th/7th round WR (estimating to be about #30).

The real comparison for me is Gates and Glenn or Chambers vs. Cooley or VD or Winslow and Evans. Both pairs get the #20 WR. I'd rather have the pair with Evans over Gates and Glenn.

Thats what I thought as well. But when adding up the combinations (using my projections) of Gates and a 6th round WR or Evans and a 6th round TE (Cooley or Davis) the Gates combo comes out to 12 more pts. The disparity between Gates and Cooley/Davis is much higher than you may think (appx 50 pts). While the disparity between Evans and a 6th round WR is lower (about 40 pts). And I have Evans projections higher than most (have him ranked 6th overall for WRs!). Therefore, like you at first glance I thought Id rather have the Evans combo but looking at the numbers the Gates combo is clearly better.