Willie Parker should be #3 pick (1 Viewer)

[Thumper]

If I were to draft today I would take Willie Parker #3

Hear me out.

1/ LT = No Brainer

2/ SJ = Will not come close to LT, but cleary the #2 choice.

- Larry Johnson- has not signed and may not sign before regular season starts. Johnson's O line is hurting. Plus, he had far too many carries last season.

- Frank Gore- Only had seven td's last season and is a huge injury risk. Already has broken hand.

- Shaun Alexander - 30 year old rb's with injury history's + go nowhere but down. Has lost people on O line

- Joseph Addai - Has never carried the load by himself. Even in college

- Travis Henry - Mediocre talent + injury risk. Plus with Mike Shanahan as coach if he puts the ball on the ground once (Henry fumbles a lot) he is done. Because of Shanahan the Denver rb spot is never a sure thing, and if those aren't enough reasons Mike Bell may get a decent amount of carries + the goal line love. Wasn't this guy third string for the Titans Way too much hype.

- Reggie Bush - Major talent, but with Duce around he will not score enough to be taken any higher than late 1st rnd early 2nd round. For all the hype he is the poor mans Brian Westbrook at this point.

- Laurence Maroney - Big injury risk (he is already injured) plus he play in an offense that spreads the ball around far to often to count on him. Heath Evans and Sammy Morris could steal goal line carries.

- Rudi Johnson - His ypc = a rb on his way out. He will put up avg numbers, but nothing great.

- Brian Westbrook - Injured too often.

That leads me to Willie Parker. The man is a sleeper. I can't believe a guy who scored 16 td's last season and is the only show in town in Pittsburg is getting drafted behind such mediocre talents as Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry.

Parker was a beast last season. For all the hype around the often injured Frank Gore. Willie Parker outscored him last season. Parker had 16 td's to Gore's 9.

Already word out of Steelers camp is that Parker will be even more involved in the offense (will be 3 down back + goal line man) plus it has been reported that he will be worked into the passing game (which is going to open up the offense far more than last season) more often.

After much flip flopping I would have to rank Parker as the clear cut #3 choice in 2007.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Well you certainly talked yourself into that one ....good job

 

[lebowski]

Good discussion topic here. I also agree that Parker is a good pick this year. For me if LJ signs he is a no brainer at 3 still, but you have some good arguments for Parker here

 

[patriarchz]

Not sure what those other two posts were all about... that added a lot to the discussion.

I'm not a huge fan of FWP, but he sure proved me wrong last season. I personally like Bush at #3, but I do think you make a compelling case. FWP might very well be the best RB behind L and SJax. He is gonna get all of the carries, and that offense should have plenty to give him.

If he gets 16 TDs this year, how can he not be #3?

 

[duaneok66]

you forgot to add . . .

Willie Parker - already missed over a week of camp with a sore knee . . . missed the 1st preseason game, and may not play in the 2nd preseason game . . .

 

[-OZ-]

After much flip flopping I would have to rank Parker as the clear cut #3 choice in 2007.

If it were clear, you wouldn't be flip flopping.

 

[SSOG]

Touchdowns are inconsistent from season to season. Just because Parker had 16 last year and his touches will increase doesn't mean he'll beat, or even approximate, that total this year.

Consider Deuce McAllister 2002 vs. Deuce McAllister 2003. In 2003, McAllister got 26 more rushes and 22 more catches than in 2002 (going from 372 touches to 420 touches). His yards per reception stayed identical, and his yards per carry actually WENT UP BY .4 (from 4.3 to 4.7). His total yards went from 1740 to 2157 (an increase of 417 yards). The problem? His TDs plummeted from 16 to 8. Then, in 2004, he lost 82 touches, had his ypc drop from 4.7 to 4.0, had his total yardage drop by 855... and his TDs actually went up by 1.

TDs scored is so inconsistent from year to year that it's generally a bad idea to rank someone high this year because they scored a lot of TDs last year (unless that person is Larry Johnson or LaDanian Tomlinson, because both are players playing in an offense with a huge track record of producing double-digit TDs for the leading RB).

 

[Revo]

I agree....as a holder of the #3 pick in my draft, if it were held today, I probably would take FWP -- least amount of question marks.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Losing Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm

can`t help his #`s this season.

Having a defensive minded HC and the OC likes to throw is not gonna help either.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

With no mention of Gary Russell or Carey Davis, this thread loses its credibility. Let alone they have the Pooper, Barlow and Haynes still there.

I like the premise and idea, but Pittsburgh will find itself with too many good options to be forced into having Parker play as the main runner, shortyardage, passing and single set back. They can cut his touches to their advantage. The same just cant be said for several other of the top options like LJohnson, SAlexander, JAddai.

 

[DLeo]

this the same willie parker with the swollen knee?

 

[buckyben]

Touchdowns are inconsistent from season to season. Just because Parker had 16 last year and his touches will increase doesn't mean he'll beat, or even approximate, that total this year.

Consider Deuce McAllister 2002 vs. Deuce McAllister 2003. In 2003, McAllister got 26 more rushes and 22 more catches than in 2002 (going from 372 touches to 420 touches). His yards per reception stayed identical, and his yards per carry actually WENT UP BY .4 (from 4.3 to 4.7). His total yards went from 1740 to 2157 (an increase of 417 yards). The problem? His TDs plummeted from 16 to 8. Then, in 2004, he lost 82 touches, had his ypc drop from 4.7 to 4.0, had his total yardage drop by 855... and his TDs actually went up by 1.

TDs scored is so inconsistent from year to year that it's generally a bad idea to rank someone high this year because they scored a lot of TDs last year (unless that person is Larry Johnson or LaDanian Tomlinson, because both are players playing in an offense with a huge track record of producing double-digit TDs for the leading RB).

I agree with some of your post, but couldn't you make a strong case for the fact that Pittsburgh has a great track record of the goal line back getting a lot of TDs? Outside of KC, SD and Seattle, they have been right there as one of the teams that always scores on the ground.They are an old school running team that does very well running it down by the goal line. They pride themselves on their short yardage running.

I'm not sold on Parker at #3, but you can't just throw his TDs out as fluky. If anything, you could make a pretty good case that he might actually score more as their O line is playing better and their offense in general seems poised to bounce back after a down season.

And FWIW, I'm pretty much the opposite of a homer as I can't stand the STeelers.

 

[smackdaddies]

Good discussion topic here. I also agree that Parker is a good pick this year. For me if LJ signs he is a no brainer at 3 still, but you have some good arguments for Parker here

 

[SSOG]

Touchdowns are inconsistent from season to season. Just because Parker had 16 last year and his touches will increase doesn't mean he'll beat, or even approximate, that total this year.

Consider Deuce McAllister 2002 vs. Deuce McAllister 2003. In 2003, McAllister got 26 more rushes and 22 more catches than in 2002 (going from 372 touches to 420 touches). His yards per reception stayed identical, and his yards per carry actually WENT UP BY .4 (from 4.3 to 4.7). His total yards went from 1740 to 2157 (an increase of 417 yards). The problem? His TDs plummeted from 16 to 8. Then, in 2004, he lost 82 touches, had his ypc drop from 4.7 to 4.0, had his total yardage drop by 855... and his TDs actually went up by 1.

TDs scored is so inconsistent from year to year that it's generally a bad idea to rank someone high this year because they scored a lot of TDs last year (unless that person is Larry Johnson or LaDanian Tomlinson, because both are players playing in an offense with a huge track record of producing double-digit TDs for the leading RB).

I agree with some of your post, but couldn't you make a strong case for the fact that Pittsburgh has a great track record of the goal line back getting a lot of TDs? Outside of KC, SD and Seattle, they have been right there as one of the teams that always scores on the ground.They are an old school running team that does very well running it down by the goal line. They pride themselves on their short yardage running.

I'm not sold on Parker at #3, but you can't just throw his TDs out as fluky. If anything, you could make a pretty good case that he might actually score more as their O line is playing better and their offense in general seems poised to bounce back after a down season.

And FWIW, I'm pretty much the opposite of a homer as I can't stand the STeelers.

Pittsburgh has produced two double-digit TD seasons by an RB in the past 10 years. No, they don't have the same track record as a KC or SD.Edit: for comparison purposes, KC's leading RB has had 19 TDs, 21 TDs, 15 TDs (in 8 games, *AND* the RB2 had 10 more TDs in 10 games, and the 3rd RB had 9 more after that, almost giving KC *THREE* 10+ TD RBs in a single season), 27 TDs, 24 TDs, and 10 TDs in the past 6 years (giving them 7 double-digit TD rushers in 6 years, almost 8). SD has 6 double-digit TD seasons in 6 years. Seattle has had a double-digit RB in 5 of the last 6 years (and 7 TDs in 10 games, giving them a double-digit pace in the 6th year). Denver has had a double-digit TD scorer in 4 of the last 7 years (or 7 of the last 11, take your pick), as well as a pair of "on-pace-for-double-digit-TD" seasons. Those are the four with a track record of TD success, listed in order of how great their success has historically been. After those 4, there's a huge dropoff to the rest of the league.

 

[Silver&BlackSmith]

this the same willie parker with the swollen knee?

If a veteran has an "injury" that is not serious (surgery) then is just a TO I want to rest and take a break injury. Parker is fine, although #3 is a bit extreme. I will be taking him at pick 1.07 if lucky!

 

[Da Guru]

I like FWP over Gore if that helps at all.

 

[BigRed]

That leads me to Willie Parker. The man is a sleeper. I can't believe a guy who scored 16 td's last season and is the only show in town in Pittsburg is getting drafted behind such mediocre talents as Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry.

I can't believe you're paying attention to some tard league where FWP is getting drafted behind Rudi and Henry. FWP as 1.03 is not exactly a radical pick. Debatable for sure, but hardly radical.

you forgot to add . . .Willie Parker - already missed over a week of camp with a sore knee . . . missed the 1st preseason game, and may not play in the 2nd preseason game . . .

...and.........? If he's still messed up in late Aug, then I'll worry about this.

Losing Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm can`t help his #`s this season.Having a defensive minded HC and the OC likes to throw is not gonna help either.

I'm with you on the 1st part. re. the 2d part, FYI having a defensive minded HC is a good thing for RBs. As for the OC likes to throw, I would think the OC realizes his strength is likely not his passing game but his running game and so will temper his "likes" by appreciating his strengths.

With no mention of Gary Russell or Carey Davis, this thread loses its credibility. Let alone they have the Pooper, Barlow and Haynes still there.

With the idea that these guys are going to take away a lot of touches from a RB who is about 1000% more proven/talented, you lose much of yours. I hope my co-owners are thinking the same way though - GB pre-season hype.PS I do not believe Parker will score 16 TDs this year - but neither will most other RBs, and I see little reason to expect a total nose dive in this area either.

 

[Chaka]

If I were to draft today I would take Willie Parker #3Hear me out.1/ LT = No Brainer2/ SJ = Will not come close to LT, but cleary the #2 choice.- Larry Johnson- has not signed and may not sign before regular season starts. Johnson's O line is hurting. Plus, he had far too many carries last season.- Frank Gore- Only had seven td's last season and is a huge injury risk. Already has broken hand.- Shaun Alexander - 30 year old rb's with injury history's + go nowhere but down. Has lost people on O line- Joseph Addai - Has never carried the load by himself. Even in college- Travis Henry - Mediocre talent + injury risk. Plus with Mike Shanahan as coach if he puts the ball on the ground once (Henry fumbles a lot) he is done. Because of Shanahan the Denver rb spot is never a sure thing, and if those aren't enough reasons Mike Bell may get a decent amount of carries + the goal line love. Wasn't this guy third string for the Titans Way too much hype.- Reggie Bush - Major talent, but with Duce around he will not score enough to be taken any higher than late 1st rnd early 2nd round. For all the hype he is the poor mans Brian Westbrook at this point.- Laurence Maroney - Big injury risk (he is already injured) plus he play in an offense that spreads the ball around far to often to count on him. Heath Evans and Sammy Morris could steal goal line carries.- Rudi Johnson - His ypc = a rb on his way out. He will put up avg numbers, but nothing great.- Brian Westbrook - Injured too often.That leads me to Willie Parker. The man is a sleeper. I can't believe a guy who scored 16 td's last season and is the only show in town in Pittsburg is getting drafted behind such mediocre talents as Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry.Parker was a beast last season. For all the hype around the often injured Frank Gore. Willie Parker outscored him last season. Parker had 16 td's to Gore's 9.Already word out of Steelers camp is that Parker will be even more involved in the offense (will be 3 down back + goal line man) plus it has been reported that he will be worked into the passing game (which is going to open up the offense far more than last season) more often.After much flip flopping I would have to rank Parker as the clear cut #3 choice in 2007.

I am high on FWP too but some of your arguments are questionable. Rudi is about as close of a lock to get 300+ touches, 1500 yards, 13 TDs and play 16 games as anyone in the league. Kenny Irons is out for the year and CPerry is still rehabbing. Rudi is the only show in town on a team that is all but a lock to finish in the top 5 in yards and scoring regardless of their schedule.Brian Westbrook has as high of a ceiling as FWP. He is a three down threat and his production actually goes up when McNabb is out of the lineup. He may be in injury risk but he is healthy now and FWP is not.Addai is the unquestioned #1 RB on a guaranteed top 3 offense (scoring & yards) that has a history of giving their #1 RB over 75% of all the teams RB touches. They traded Rhodes and did nothing to replace him. Their confidence in Addai speaks volumes.How in the world does Travis Henry qualify as "mediocre talent"?ETA: FWP is clearly in this tier of RBs but he is hardly a lock @ #3.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

With no mention of Gary Russell or Carey Davis, this thread loses its credibility. Let alone they have the Pooper, Barlow and Haynes still there.

With the idea that these guys are going to take away a lot of touches from a RB who is about 1000% more proven/talented, you lose much of yours. I hope my co-owners are thinking the same way though - GB pre-season hype.

You skipped the most important part... They can cut his touches to their advantage.

He is better, no doubt about it. I never said otherwise.

But the team will utilize other running backs to keep Parker fresh and healthy for the ultimate goal of winning...

which does not help your fantasy goal of compiling statistics.

He simply wont have to have such a heavy workload because they have other solid options.

The other RBs wont "take away" the touches so much as the coaching will "give away" some of them.

 

[treat88]

With no mention of Gary Russell or Carey Davis, this thread loses its credibility. Let alone they have the Pooper, Barlow and Haynes still there.

Thinking they will carry more than 2 of the guys you mentioned in addition to Kreider and FWP is way off base.Davenport is the clear number 2, Barlow and Haynes are likely camp cuts. Russell or Davis are #3 with the loser going to the PS.My guess is Davis goes to the PS so they don't risk exposing Russell to another team.No one is going to steal carries or take carries from Willie. The coaching staff will use him in every situation, GL/3rd down or otherwise except when he needs a break

 

[Chaka]

With no mention of Gary Russell or Carey Davis, this thread loses its credibility. Let alone they have the Pooper, Barlow and Haynes still there.

With the idea that these guys are going to take away a lot of touches from a RB who is about 1000% more proven/talented, you lose much of yours. I hope my co-owners are thinking the same way though - GB pre-season hype.

You skipped the most important part... They can cut his touches to their advantage.

He is better, no doubt about it. I never said otherwise.

But the team will utilize other running backs to keep Parker fresh and healthy for the ultimate goal of winning...

which does not help your fantasy goal of compiling statistics.

He simply wont have to have such a heavy workload because they have other solid options.

They will try to spell FWP as much as possible but when the other guys consistiently put up 3.3 ypc vs FWPs 4.3 then the touches will stay with the guy moving the chains and causing defenses to make adjustments.Najeh and Barlow missed their chances to be stars in this leauge and the window is closed on them becoming anything more than emergency stop gaps. They wont be effective enough to justify keeping FWP on the sidelines.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

:X

 

[Chaka]

:X

 

[buckyben]

Touchdowns are inconsistent from season to season. Just because Parker had 16 last year and his touches will increase doesn't mean he'll beat, or even approximate, that total this year.

Consider Deuce McAllister 2002 vs. Deuce McAllister 2003. In 2003, McAllister got 26 more rushes and 22 more catches than in 2002 (going from 372 touches to 420 touches). His yards per reception stayed identical, and his yards per carry actually WENT UP BY .4 (from 4.3 to 4.7). His total yards went from 1740 to 2157 (an increase of 417 yards). The problem? His TDs plummeted from 16 to 8. Then, in 2004, he lost 82 touches, had his ypc drop from 4.7 to 4.0, had his total yardage drop by 855... and his TDs actually went up by 1.

TDs scored is so inconsistent from year to year that it's generally a bad idea to rank someone high this year because they scored a lot of TDs last year (unless that person is Larry Johnson or LaDanian Tomlinson, because both are players playing in an offense with a huge track record of producing double-digit TDs for the leading RB).

I agree with some of your post, but couldn't you make a strong case for the fact that Pittsburgh has a great track record of the goal line back getting a lot of TDs? Outside of KC, SD and Seattle, they have been right there as one of the teams that always scores on the ground.They are an old school running team that does very well running it down by the goal line. They pride themselves on their short yardage running.

I'm not sold on Parker at #3, but you can't just throw his TDs out as fluky. If anything, you could make a pretty good case that he might actually score more as their O line is playing better and their offense in general seems poised to bounce back after a down season.

And FWIW, I'm pretty much the opposite of a homer as I can't stand the STeelers.

Pittsburgh has produced two double-digit TD seasons by an RB in the past 10 years. No, they don't have the same track record as a KC or SD.Edit: for comparison purposes, KC's leading RB has had 19 TDs, 21 TDs, 15 TDs (in 8 games, *AND* the RB2 had 10 more TDs in 10 games, and the 3rd RB had 9 more after that, almost giving KC *THREE* 10+ TD RBs in a single season), 27 TDs, 24 TDs, and 10 TDs in the past 6 years (giving them 7 double-digit TD rushers in 6 years, almost 8). SD has 6 double-digit TD seasons in 6 years. Seattle has had a double-digit RB in 5 of the last 6 years (and 7 TDs in 10 games, giving them a double-digit pace in the 6th year). Denver has had a double-digit TD scorer in 4 of the last 7 years (or 7 of the last 11, take your pick), as well as a pair of "on-pace-for-double-digit-TD" seasons. Those are the four with a track record of TD success, listed in order of how great their success has historically been. After those 4, there's a huge dropoff to the rest of the league.

Fair enough and I appreciate your statistical acumen. However, I would add that Pittsburgh has had at least 16 rushing TDs each of the last 3 years. So, I don't think its far fetched to think they will get that many again, especially since their line is in better shape now than it has been. Unless, you think something has changed and Parker won't get the great majority of those TDs, I still think its pretty safe to project him with 13+, especially since he will likely catch a few also.

 

[JAMMIN]

I have a real hard time ranking him over Westbrook in a PPR league. I get a half point per reception and Westbrook is clearly ahead in my rankings.

 

[Willowdoc]

Not sure what those other two posts were all about... that added a lot to the discussion.I'm not a huge fan of FWP, but he sure proved me wrong last season. I personally like Bush at #3, but I do think you make a compelling case. FWP might very well be the best RB behind L and SJax. He is gonna get all of the carries, and that offense should have plenty to give him. If he gets 16 TDs this year, how can he not be #3?

Perhaps because he has 16 TDs last year and finished #7? And where did you get the information that he was the goal line back? Given the variabilties of touchdown production, Santonio Holmes scores instead of going out of bounds at the one yard line 3 times during the season is all it takes to change touchdown totals dramatically. That doesn't even account for the 2 or 3 that Davenport vultures. He's going to need 2000 total yards to reach Gore's levels (whose touchdowns are likely to go up dramatically).

 

[CrossEyed]

At this point Parker has as much of a shot at finishing the season as RB #3 as anyone else.

 

[Jack Burton]

If I were to draft today I would take Willie Parker #3

Hear me out.

1/ LT = No Brainer

2/ SJ = Will not come close to LT, but cleary the #2 choice.

- Larry Johnson- has not signed and may not sign before regular season starts. Johnson's O line is hurting. Plus, he had far too many carries last season.

- Frank Gore- Only had seven td's last season and is a huge injury risk. Already has broken hand.

Check your #'s here Euclid.

I think FWP could finish 3rd if all goes right in steeler world.

 

[matuski]

Hear me out.

The man is a sleeper.

 

[ceo3west]

If I were to draft today I would take Willie Parker #3Hear me out.1/ LT = No Brainer2/ SJ = Will not come close to LT, but cleary the #2 choice.- Larry Johnson- has not signed and may not sign before regular season starts. Johnson's O line is hurting. Plus, he had far too many carries last season.- Frank Gore- Only had seven td's last season and is a huge injury risk. Already has broken hand.- Shaun Alexander - 30 year old rb's with injury history's + go nowhere but down. Has lost people on O line- Joseph Addai - Has never carried the load by himself. Even in college- Travis Henry - Mediocre talent + injury risk. Plus with Mike Shanahan as coach if he puts the ball on the ground once (Henry fumbles a lot) he is done. Because of Shanahan the Denver rb spot is never a sure thing, and if those aren't enough reasons Mike Bell may get a decent amount of carries + the goal line love. Wasn't this guy third string for the Titans Way too much hype.- Reggie Bush - Major talent, but with Duce around he will not score enough to be taken any higher than late 1st rnd early 2nd round. For all the hype he is the poor mans Brian Westbrook at this point.- Laurence Maroney - Big injury risk (he is already injured) plus he play in an offense that spreads the ball around far to often to count on him. Heath Evans and Sammy Morris could steal goal line carries.- Rudi Johnson - His ypc = a rb on his way out. He will put up avg numbers, but nothing great.- Brian Westbrook - Injured too often.That leads me to Willie Parker. The man is a sleeper. I can't believe a guy who scored 16 td's last season and is the only show in town in Pittsburg is getting drafted behind such mediocre talents as Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry.Parker was a beast last season. For all the hype around the often injured Frank Gore. Willie Parker outscored him last season. Parker had 16 td's to Gore's 9.Already word out of Steelers camp is that Parker will be even more involved in the offense (will be 3 down back + goal line man) plus it has been reported that he will be worked into the passing game (which is going to open up the offense far more than last season) more often.After much flip flopping I would have to rank Parker as the clear cut #3 choice in 2007.

I'm wrestling with this pick as well for my 14-teamer next week. At first glance, I was looking at Addai & LJ, however I do love Parker and looking at his schedule I was blown away. Not only does he play the NFC West this year, but he's @ Baltimore week 17 when the FF season is over (at least for me). I'm strongly leaning towards FWP right now. The guy had 1700+ yards, 16 td's last year, his schedule appears much easier this year and he's in the sweet spot in terms of age for RB's. Given all of this, I don't know how he's not in the top 3 discussion much less top 5. I want a safe yet SOLID pick at # 3 and I think he's just that. LJ might blow up again, but as I've mentioned several times on these boards, EVERY year at least one of the top 3 consensus RB's do not end up top 3. Given that trend, I don't see how LJ should be considered a lock at the #3 draft slot.

 

[thatguythere]

Got him at 1.07 in a 12 team redraft on Wed night.

 

[hoyaparanoia]

Got him at 1.07 in a 12 team redraft on Wed night.

I hope to get him at 1.07 as well. Im targeting FWP, Addai, and Johnson.

 

[hauser42]

I like FWP but more mid round pick. OC of Steelers is going to open the offense up a little bit, he use to work for the Colts. He does not have a huge role for a fullback in the scheme and is more likely to use 3 WR or 2TE sets. This could help Parker as teams will not be allowed to put 8 in the box.

Gore and Johnson are the #3 guys, but both have ?'s. Johnson has a declining line, poor QBs, and a lot of touches. Gore has the injury risk, young team around him, and I think the biggest mark against, the loss of Norv Turner.

 

[jonessed]

Anything from #3 down is a crapshoot both in terms of drafts and actual production. You might as well be picking from a hat.

 

[Sheriff66]

Not sure what those other two posts were all about... that added a lot to the discussion.I'm not a huge fan of FWP, but he sure proved me wrong last season. I personally like Bush at #3, but I do think you make a compelling case. FWP might very well be the best RB behind L and SJax. He is gonna get all of the carries, and that offense should have plenty to give him. If he gets 16 TDs this year, how can he not be #3?

Perhaps because he has 16 TDs last year and finished #7? And where did you get the information that he was the goal line back? Given the variabilties of touchdown production, Santonio Holmes scores instead of going out of bounds at the one yard line 3 times during the season is all it takes to change touchdown totals dramatically. That doesn't even account for the 2 or 3 that Davenport vultures. He's going to need 2000 total yards to reach Gore's levels (whose touchdowns are likely to go up dramatically).

I could see him catching 20-25 more balls than he caught last year in this offense, so 2000 could be a possibility.FWP could be #3, and that isn't just homer talk.

 

[ceo3west]

Not sure what those other two posts were all about... that added a lot to the discussion.I'm not a huge fan of FWP, but he sure proved me wrong last season. I personally like Bush at #3, but I do think you make a compelling case. FWP might very well be the best RB behind L and SJax. He is gonna get all of the carries, and that offense should have plenty to give him. If he gets 16 TDs this year, how can he not be #3?

Perhaps because he has 16 TDs last year and finished #7? And where did you get the information that he was the goal line back? Given the variabilties of touchdown production, Santonio Holmes scores instead of going out of bounds at the one yard line 3 times during the season is all it takes to change touchdown totals dramatically. That doesn't even account for the 2 or 3 that Davenport vultures. He's going to need 2000 total yards to reach Gore's levels (whose touchdowns are likely to go up dramatically).

I could see him catching 20-25 more balls than he caught last year in this offense, so 2000 could be a possibility.FWP could be #3, and that isn't just homer talk.

Look at the schedule. If he stays healthy, a top 3-5 finish wouldn't surprise me at all. Again, I'm leaning heavily towards him at # 3.