Winter Olympics Fantasy challenge - anyone doing this? (1 Viewer)

[matttyl]

So my wife's (large) employer does little fun things from time to time - and today she was notified that they will have a "Winter Olympics Fantasy Challenge" for anyone interested.  The idea is pretty simple - you pick 5 countries from all the participating countries.  If they win a gold medal, it's worth 3 points - a silver is worth 2 and a bronze is worth 1.  Then each country has a "modifier adjustment" that you multiply their medal count against - "big" countries like the USA and Canada have a low multiplier of only 5, while a "smaller" country (without as many entrants) like Iceland or Denmark has a multiplier of 100. 

Given the size of her company, the "winners" can end up with really good prizes - a paid week off, a $500 gift card or something similar wouldn't be out of the question.

Anyone have any sleeper countries?

 

[heckmanm]

Need to see all countries' modifiers to really identify value IMO.  Is it just based on number of athletes?

 

[ChiefD]

You gotta have Norway on your list.

 

[otb_lifer]

Belarus FTW

 

[heckmanm]

Need to see all countries' modifiers to really identify value IMO.  Is it just based on number of athletes?

FYI no luck finding a simple source for #athletes per country on any Olympics websites (or Wikipedia)

 

[CletiusMaximus]

You gotta have Norway on your list.

Although Norway probably has a very low multiplier, since they are a perennial favorite for the total medal count (unless its just based on number of athletes, which might skew things a bit).

Depending on how OP values his time and ROI on this, it might be fun to check a few online gambling sites and use that info together with the multipliers offered in the competition to make his picks.

Here's one for total medals, but most of the big ones will break down odds for gold, silver and bronze:

Total Medal Count

Germany +175

Norway +175

USA +400

Canada +700

Netherlands +1600

France +4000

Austria +5000

Republic of Korea +5000

China +6600

Switzerland +8000

Sweden +10000

Japan +10000

Poland +10000

 

[Don Quixote]

There's a female skier from Liechtenstein who is pretty good.  If they have a huge multiplier, could be one to pick.

 

[heckmanm]

Here are the medal standings from 2014 (not adjusted for Russia's disqualifications)

Country Points
 Norway (NOR) 53
 Canada (CAN) 55
 United States (USA) 53
 Russia (RUS) 41 (was 70 before DQs)
 Netherlands (NED) 47
 Germany (GER) 41
 Switzerland (SUI) 26
 Belarus (BLR) 16
 Austria (AUT) 33
 France (FRA) 27
 Poland (POL) 15
 China (CHN) 19
 South Korea (KOR) 17
 Sweden (SWE) 26
 Czech Republic (CZE) 16
 Slovenia (SLO) 14
 Japan (JPN) 14
 Finland (FIN) 10
 Great Britain (GBR) 7
 Ukraine (UKR) 4
 Slovakia (SVK) 3
 Italy (ITA) 10
 Latvia (LAT) 6
 Australia (AUS) 5
 Croatia (CRO) 2
 Kazakhstan (KAZ) 1


Russa DQs: -4 gold, -8 silver, -1 bronze (-29 points)

So if you assume similar results, apply the multiplier to each country and wa-la.

 

[kupcho1]

So if you assume similar results, apply the multiplier to each country and wa-la.

 

[Jayrod]

We don't get French benefits?

 

[kupcho1]

We don't get French benefits?

For all intensive porpoises, know.

 

[Zegras11]

Jamaica

 

[Eephus]

Kenya

 

[matttyl]

Sorry I didn't post the multipliers, but there were many.  Understood that they obviously determine the "value" of the country, though.  Here's an "updated" list of them....

Australia35

Austria10

Belarus40

Belgium80

Bulgaria80

Canada5

China13

Croatia80

Czech Republic25

Denmark100

Estonia80

Finland35

France7

Germany4

Great Britain50

Iceland100

Italy25

Japan12

Kazakhstan80

Latvia50

Liechtenstein80

Netherlands9

Norway4

Poland35

Russia5

Slovakia50

Slovenia40

Korea - Unified12

Spain80

Sweden10

Switzerland11

Ukraine80

United States5

Any Other Country (you have to specifically call it)100

Some of these could change before opening ceremonies, and we're able to change our picks up until then.  Anyway, you can see that one medal from Ukraine for instance would balance out 16 medals from the US.  At this point I believe we're going with the Netherlands (9), "put another shrimp on the barbie" Austria (10), Korea (unified, so you get North Korean athletes as well) (12), China (13) and Poland (35).  Thus far every other entrant has picked the US to be one of their 5 teams.

 

[heckmanm]

 Belarus (BLR)
 Slovenia (SLO)
 Poland (POL)
 Netherlands (NED)
 Czech Republic (CZE)
 

 

[ChiefD]

Sorry I didn't post the multipliers, but there were many.  Understood that they obviously determine the "value" of the country, though.  Here's an "updated" list of them....

Australia35

Austria10

Belarus40

Belgium80

Bulgaria80

Canada5

China13

Croatia80

Czech Republic25

Denmark100

Estonia80

Finland35

France7

Germany4

Great Britain50

Iceland100

Italy25

Japan12

Kazakhstan80

Latvia50

Liechtenstein80

Netherlands9

Norway4

Poland35

Russia5

Slovakia50

Slovenia40

Korea - Unified12

Spain80

Sweden10

Switzerland11

Ukraine80

United States5

Any Other Country (you have to specifically call it)100

Some of these could change before opening ceremonies, and we're able to change our picks up until then.  Anyway, you can see that one medal from Ukraine for instance would balance out 16 medals from the US.  At this point I believe we're going with the Netherlands (9), "put another shrimp on the barbie" Austria (10), Korea (unified, so you get North Korean athletes as well) (12), China (13) and Poland (35).  Thus far every other entrant has picked the US to be one of their 5 teams.

Could one of you excel nerds extrapolate this on a spreadsheet with the average medals won by country over the last two winter olympics and apply the multiplier to each so we can let the OP make an informed decision? And if you could put that on a shared Google doc that would be fantastic.

Thanks in advance. 

 

[heckmanm]

Could one of you excel nerds extrapolate this on a spreadsheet with the average medals won by country over the last two winter olympics and apply the multiplier to each so we can let the OP make an informed decision? And if you could put that on a shared Google doc that would be fantastic.

Thanks in advance. 

My post just above is the top 5 EV based on 2014 only.  I'll see what I can do.

 

[matttyl]

Could one of you excel nerds extrapolate this on a spreadsheet with the average medals won by country over the last two winter olympics and apply the multiplier to each so we can let the OP make an informed decision? And if you could put that on a shared Google doc that would be fantastic.

Thanks in advance. 

I did something similar, kinda.  I took some vegas odds on total medal count (like in post 6 here) and tried to find the value picks.  So the Netherlands have a multiplier of 9, but have a better chance at more medals (according to Vegas) than does France who has a lower multiplier of only 7 - so that's why I picked them.  Then Austria has a multiplier of 10, and Korea with 12 seem to be slightly better than Switzerland's 11.  Poland's 35 I thought was a no brainer - but the more I think about it having a "100" multiplier from a country that somehow gets just a few medals might be where it's at. 

 

[Don Quixote]

Link that I found with a projected medal tally.  Czech Republic seems like a good value with 25x multiplier.

 

[matttyl]

My post just above is the top 5 EV based on 2014 only.  I'll see what I can do.

Thanks.  The only vegas odds type stuff I found was something similar to the above (total medals) - but there was no breakdown on gold medals other than for the US and Canada. 

 

[matttyl]

Link that I found with a projected medal tally.  Czech Republic seems like a good value with 25x multiplier.

That's an amazing find, thank you!!  Let me see what I can do with this....

Update - so she sent me the *official* e-mail that has the *official* spreadsheet that is used to tally it all up.  It has all the multipliers listed and places to enter medal counts - which I did with the list on this site.  Top 5 countries (from the 27 counties listed) are .....drum-roll please....

Czech Republic (450)

Japan (360)

France (357)

Australia (350)

Great Britain (350)

.....so none of the countries I picked initially, but all that I picked are in the 245-333 range (I think all top 12 counties on the list actually).  The Shark Pool does it again, thanks guys.

 

[heckmanm]

My post just above is the top 5 EV based on 2014 only.  I'll see what I can do.

How's this? I weighted 60/40 toward the 2014 medal counts.

Need to check vs @Don Quixote's projected tally.

 

[heckmanm]

How's this? I weighted 60/40 toward the 2014 medal counts.

Need to check vs @Don Quixote's projected tally.

Updated the doc with a "Projected" tab, but info is kind of spotty.  Don's link only had 10 countries.  CNN has a page with 20 (top 10 seem to match the other one), but it doesn't include Finland, even though the text of the article says they expect Finland to pick up an extra medal with so many Russians not there. So I'm not sure what to project for Finland, which is too bad since they have a tasty multiplier of 35.

They also don't list Russia in the medal projections, since their athletes will be competing as "Olympic athletes of Russia" but considered independent from the Russian Olympic team itself.

(I may be spending too much time on this )

 

[Jayrod]

(I may be spending too much time on this )

 

[ChiefD]

Fantastic work gentlemen. Thanks. 

Will be fun to follow this along. 

 

[Don Quixote]

Updated the doc with a "Projected" tab, but info is kind of spotty.  Don's link only had 10 countries.  CNN has a page with 20 (top 10 seem to match the other one), but it doesn't include Finland, even though the text of the article says they expect Finland to pick up an extra medal with so many Russians not there. So I'm not sure what to project for Finland, which is too bad since they have a tasty multiplier of 35.

They also don't list Russia in the medal projections, since their athletes will be competing as "Olympic athletes of Russia" but considered independent from the Russian Olympic team itself.

(I may be spending too much time on this )

There's a full medal list if you go down to the bottom of that page.  Link has a Top 10 at the top, but the full projected count at the bottom (with 27 countries listed).

 

[matttyl]

Updated the doc with a "Projected" tab, but info is kind of spotty.  Don's link only had 10 countries.  CNN has a page with 20 (top 10 seem to match the other one), but it doesn't include Finland, even though the text of the article says they expect Finland to pick up an extra medal with so many Russians not there. So I'm not sure what to project for Finland, which is too bad since they have a tasty multiplier of 35.

They also don't list Russia in the medal projections, since their athletes will be competing as "Olympic athletes of Russia" but considered independent from the Russian Olympic team itself.

(I may be spending too much time on this )

Scroll to the bottom, the full list has 27.

 

[Da Guru]

Are the Winter Olympics this year??

 

[matttyl]

Updated the doc with a "Projected" tab, but info is kind of spotty.  Don's link only had 10 countries.  CNN has a page with 20 (top 10 seem to match the other one), but it doesn't include Finland, even though the text of the article says they expect Finland to pick up an extra medal with so many Russians not there. So I'm not sure what to project for Finland, which is too bad since they have a tasty multiplier of 35.

They also don't list Russia in the medal projections, since their athletes will be competing as "Olympic athletes of Russia" but considered independent from the Russian Olympic team itself.

(I may be spending too much time on this )

Russia's official multiplier is 0 on the list.

 

[ChiefD]

I remember one year, my wife's work has a Super Bowl contest with about 20 questions on there. It's silly stuff - like who will win the toss, what company is the first advertiser after kick-off - stuff like that.

So my wife brings this home and we fill it out. So of course we win the thing, and the prize was something like a $25 gift card to a local convenience store (Quik Trip). The company was pretty small back then.

Anyway, she gives me the gift card, so I go in there one morning to buy my morning soda. I whip out this gift card and the thing was blank. No dollars. Nada. 

So I call my wife and am laughing, asking her "What the eff kind of operation you guys running over there?" She refused to go to HR to get a proper winning gift card.

So to this day, whenever she sends home that Super Bowl contest for us to fill out, I just look at her, shake my head, and walk away....

 

[matttyl]

CNN has a page with 20 (top 10 seem to match the other one),

....their source.....Gracenote (Don's link).  haha.

 

[heckmanm]

There's a full medal list if you go down to the bottom of that page.  Link has a Top 10 at the top, but the full projected count at the bottom (with 27 countries listed).

D'oh! Thanks.  Updated.

Your projected ideal lineup:

Czech Republic (CZE)
Japan (JPN)
France (FRA)
Australia (AUS)
Great Britain (GBR)


Although I'm surprised at Finland not having any gold/silver projected; I thought they used to KILL ski jumping.  Good sleeper pick IMO

 

[heckmanm]

Russia's official multiplier is 0 on the list.

Hmm, first list posted had 5.  Makes sense though.

 

[matttyl]

D'oh! Thanks.  Updated.

Your projected ideal lineup:

Czech Republic (CZE)
Japan (JPN)
France (FRA)
Australia (AUS)
Great Britain (GBR)


Although I'm surprised at Finland not having any gold/silver projected; I thought they used to KILL ski jumping.  Good sleeper pick IMO

Same as I got.  Also crazy on Finland being projected for 7 bronzes, but not a single gold or silver.  If half end up being silver, they're projected to be the #2 country on the list - but if all are bronze they aren't in the top 15.

 

[matttyl]

Hmm, first list posted had 5.  Makes sense though.

First list was a copy and paste from a prior e-mail (from the last winter Olympics).  The *official* list is the spreadsheet that was attached to that e-mail.

 

[Scoresman]

For a prize of a paid week off, I'd spend at least a week at work analyzing all this.  

 

[Don Quixote]

Same as I got.  Also crazy on Finland being projected for 7 bronzes, but not a single gold or silver.  If half end up being silver, they're projected to be the #2 country on the list - but if all are bronze they aren't in the top 15.

Definitely going to be some variance from actual results that will cause some swings.  By contrast, Czech Republic is gold-heavy.  Change some of those to silver/bronze, and it is not as good of a value.

 

[ChiefD]

Has anyone looked at the past two Olympics projected vs actual and put that in the spreadsheet? 

 

[Scoresman]

Shark move is for everyone in the company to collaborate and submit the same list and everyone gets a week off paid.  

 

[heckmanm]

Shark move is for everyone in the company to collaborate and submit the same list and everyone gets a week off paid.  

:slowclap:

 

[heckmanm]

FYI I updated the doc so that anyone with the link can edit, but I'd rather any new projection-type stuff be done on new tabs.

@matttyl, can you put the final multipliers on the "Multipliers" tab?  The other sheets will update.

 

[matttyl]

FYI I updated the doc so that anyone with the link can edit, but I'd rather any new projection-type stuff be done on new tabs.

@matttyl, can you put the final multipliers on the "Multipliers" tab?  The other sheets will update.

on it. 

ETA - I did a cut and paste from the *official* spreadsheet that I was sent, and that I tinkered with a bit already (marking my initial 5 countries, and then the top 5 counties that we worked out above).  I can mess with it more later (I've got to run our shortly), but wanted to get that attached (in the multipliers tab) so others can see what the official multipliers for each country are.

 

[matttyl]

Still thinking that some random country getting a single gold (hey, Jamaica's got a bobsled team, mon) is the way to go.  Those x100 multipliers are crazy - a single gold medal is worth 300.  Anyone know of some random country with a serious medal contender or two? 

 

[otb_lifer]

Still thinking that some random country getting a single gold (hey, Jamaica's got a bobsled team, mon) is the way to go.  Those x100 multipliers are crazy - a single gold medal is worth 300.  Anyone know of some random country with a serious medal contender or two? 

pffft on Jamaica, dont think they've ever finished top 20 - but, hey, they had a movie! 

 

[Don Quixote]

Still thinking that some random country getting a single gold (hey, Jamaica's got a bobsled team, mon) is the way to go.  Those x100 multipliers are crazy - a single gold medal is worth 300.  Anyone know of some random country with a serious medal contender or two? 

The risk of getting a zero from any country seems a bit too much for me, particularly when there are about 10 countries projected in the 300 range with a broader risk pool (that is, even if the country has a bad olympics, you could probably still expect 250 from them).  I had mentioned Liechtenstein yesterday, but I don't think it is worth it.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I did something similar, kinda.  I took some vegas odds on total medal count (like in post 6 here) and tried to find the value picks.  So the Netherlands have a multiplier of 9, but have a better chance at more medals (according to Vegas) than does France who has a lower multiplier of only 7 - so that's why I picked them.  Then Austria has a multiplier of 10, and Korea with 12 seem to be slightly better than Switzerland's 11.  Poland's 35 I thought was a no brainer - but the more I think about it having a "100" multiplier from a country that somehow gets just a few medals might be where it's at. 

From watching the Olympic channel late night when I'm time-wasting, I believe Poland has a ski jumper who is dominant, probably a huge favorite in whichever ski jumping events he's entered in.  Also, Korea is strong in speed skating, but they also have a dude in the skeleton who I think is a strong favorite.

 

[matttyl]

From watching the Olympic channel late night when I'm time-wasting, I believe Poland has a ski jumper who is dominant, probably a huge favorite in whichever ski jumping events he's entered in.  Also, Korea is strong in speed skating, but they also have a dude in the skeleton who I think is a strong favorite.

AAAHHH!  You just listed two of my initial countries, but neither are included in what Hek, Don and I worked out above....

 

[Courtjester]

So who is running the one for us here at FBGs?

Of course I am stealing all the picks you guys already have on here. 

 

[Don Quixote]

Looking at the Google doc, the projection tab seems to have zero down for China and Czech, but 1400 for Croatia.  I'm guessing something got mixed up there.

 

[heckmanm]

Looking at the Google doc, the projection tab seems to have zero down for China and Czech, but 1400 for Croatia.  I'm guessing something got mixed up there.

Yeah something got jacked up.  I think I fixed it