Winter Olympics Fantasy challenge - anyone doing this? (1 Viewer)

[heckmanm]

Personally, I think I'd take Netherlands over either Australia or Great Britain in my top 5. Aussies and Brits have a great multiplier, but are only projected for 4-5 medals each, while Netherlands is projected for 18.

Unless those 2 Aussie golds are lead-pipe (not Tonya Harding-style) locks.

 

[matttyl]

Personally, I think I'd take Netherlands over either Australia or Great Britain in my top 5. Aussies and Brits have a great multiplier, but are only projected for 4-5 medals each, while Netherlands is projected for 18.

Unless those 2 Aussie golds are lead-pipe (not Tonya Harding-style) locks.

GB's multiplier is 50, while the Netherlands is 9.  Every medal for GB is better than 5 of the Netherlands.

 

[heckmanm]

GB's multiplier is 50, while the Netherlands is 9.  Every medal for GB is better than 5 of the Netherlands.

True. I'm just thinking which nation is more likely to step on their collective d!cks in the winter games and get no medals.

What sports are GB and AUS supposed to do well in, anyway?  Eddie the Eagle has retired from ski jumping AFAIK.

 

[matttyl]

True. I'm just thinking which nation is more likely to step on their collective d!cks in the winter games and get no medals.

What sports are GB and AUS supposed to do well in, anyway?  Eddie the Eagle has retired from ski jumping AFAIK.

Any country that can step on their own d!ck should definitely win a medal for it.

GB has a SUPER HOT snowboarder competing in 2 events, and Australia has a few skiers and snowboarders, including two returns medalists. 

 

[heckmanm]

Ah, forgot about snowboarding

Nickname: Katie O

I'll bet.

 

[matttyl]

Ah, forgot about snowboarding

I'll bet.

I'm adding GB to my list just so if I should ever meet Katie O I can tell her that I did so solely because of her.  Might win me some points.....

 

[Arodin]

Shark move is for everyone in the company to collaborate and submit the same list and everyone gets a week off paid.  

Or all 700 of them get 1/100 of a week off.  Enjoy your extra 24-minute coffee break.

Shark move is to convince everyone else to submit identical lists, then make one change to your own.

 

[matttyl]

Or all 700 of them get 1/100 of a week off.  Enjoy your extra 24-minute coffee break.

Shark move is to convince everyone else to submit identical lists, then make one change to your own.

Then you’ll be the only one without a week of paid vacation.

 

[matttyl]

Updated medal count odds!

Get out of the Great Britain business, if you can. 

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Updated medal count odds!

Get out of the Great Britain business, if you can. 

One interesting thing about a pool like this is that a dominant biathlon athlete can bring home 5 or 6 medals. Downhill or cross-country skiers often win 2 or 3 as it is common to compete in multiple medal events.  Whereas an entire hockey team can only win one medal. Someone competing in sports like bobsled or skeleton can only win one medal. So if the multiplier is based on number of athletes, it seems there's an inefficiency to exploit.

 

[simsarge]

Then you’ll be the only one without a week of paid vacation.

Or be still at your desk while everyone else is in the break room knocking back that extra cup of joe with their extra 24 minutes

 

[heckmanm]

OK, assuming the projections and multipliers in the Google sheet are current, I'll go with:

Czech Republic (25)

Japan (12)

Great Britain (50)

Australia (35)

Finland (35) - projected for 7 medals, but all bronze; if a couple of those overachieve, big points.

 

[Thorpe]

Netherlands

Japan

Canada

Norway

Germany

 

[dal_boys_phan]

WSJ yesterday had a prediction article.

 

[matttyl]

OK, assuming the projections and multipliers in the Google sheet are current, I'll go with:

Czech Republic (25)

Japan (12)

Great Britain (50)

Australia (35)

Finland (35) - projected for 7 medals, but all bronze; if a couple of those overachieve, big points.

You're staying with them?  For some reason they took a bit tumble in the medal count odds, not sure why.  Damn good multiplier, though.

 

[matttyl]

Finland, France, Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland

 

[heckmanm]

You're staying with them?  For some reason they took a bit tumble in the medal count odds, not sure why.  Damn good multiplier, though.

Got a link? I didn't check for updated projections.

NVM I see it above

 

[heckmanm]

Finland, France, Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland

This is now the top 5 projected.  Spreadsheet updated.

Not really any strong sleepers, although Sweden has good volume (15 medals) with only a few golds.  Italy has a nice multiplier (25) and could make noise if a couple projected silvers turn gold.

 

[heckmanm]

Sports Illustrated has WILDLY different projections.  Based on these (which only go 12 deep, but account for 260 out of 306 total medals):

Italy: 550 - 12 medals vs 6 on the Gracenote site

Norway: 364

Korea: 360

Austria: 310

Netherlands: 306

 

[heckmanm]

OK, completely unable to leave the SI projections alone, since they DID predict all medals in all events, I filled in the remaining countries projections that they were too damn lazy to do. 

New dream team based on SI: Italy, Norway, Korea, Belarus (360) and Finland (350). 

Liechtenstein (320) and Australia (315) both come in ahead of Austria and Netherlands, although both are REALLY dependent on the high multipliers, with only 2 and 4 medals projected, respectively.

(BTW, new "SI Projected" tab on the spreadsheet)

 

[matttyl]

Thanks for the updates.  The original (and then updated) projections were derived from "Our projections are based on results from the world’s most extensive database of Olympic sports and a proprietary statistical model which is applied to that data."

The SI projections are from some dude named Brian Cazeneuve.

 

[heckmanm]

bump to let you folks know that I'll be updating the actual medal counts in the Google sheet periodically.  

 

[heckmanm]

Well this thing died once the games started

In case anyone cares, Slovakia and Great Britain are on top thanks to their 50x multipliers. Italy and Czech Republic (both 25x) also in the top 5 with Netherlands (9x) doing it with volume.

 

[heckmanm]

Final standings bump.  Your top 5 scorers:
- Italy (450; 3G/2S/5B, 25x)
- South Korea (420; 5G/8S/4B, 12x)
- Netherlands (378; 8G/6S/6B, 9x)
- Slovakia (350; 1G/2S, 50x)
- Switzerland (341; 5G/6S/4B, 11x)

Best performers vs projections:
- Poland (140 points, 0 projected; +infinity)
- New Zealand (160 points, 0 projected; +infinity)
- Ukraine (240 points, 80 projected; +200%)
- Great Britain (300 points, 150 projected; +100%)
- South Korea (420 points, 250 projected +68%)

Worst performers vs projections:
- Slovenia (120 points, 250 projected; -52%)
- Liechtenstein (80 points, 160 projected; -50%)
- Australia (175 points, 315 projected; -44.44%)
- France (203 points, 343 projected; -40.82%)
- Latvia (50 points, 80 projected; -37.5%)

This was fun. Someone find/bump this in 2020 

 

[Don Quixote]

Any update from our hero?