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With the #1 Overall Pick, the Chicago Bears select… (1 Viewer)

In an imaginary world where the only quarterbacks were Bryce and Stroud and the colts were happy with either, and no other teams existed outside the top 4, the bears would have very little leverage.

In that same world, if you assume the colts have a preference, and we don't know who the Texans want, then the bears have leverage. Trade with us or else Houston might take your guy. The bears might know that 1.1 and 1.2 will be quarterbacks and still worry that they won't get their favorite guy at 1.3. The colts would have to pay enough to justify missing out on their favorite non qb.

Now add in the possibility that the colts see a clear difference and are worried that the Texans do too. Now the colts not only have to offer enough to the bears to get them to move down from 1.1 to 1.4, but they also have a new problem - the Texans may be willing to pay to move up from 1.2 to 1.1. The Texans can offer first choice of non qbs plus a pick. The colts can only offer second choice of non qbs, so they have to offer more in picks.

Now add in the possibility that 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, 1.11 and 1.13 all want to move up. And all of them know that there is zero chance their favorite qb falls to them. Any of them might be willing to offer a future first to move up to 1.1 so if the Raiders will offer 1.7 and a future first then the Panthers need to offer 1.8, a future first and something else. And the colts need to beat both offers.

The first domino to fall will be the Raiders trading carr to someone who is effectively bowing out of the auction for 1.1. That's the canary in the coal mine. If teams have a bidding war over Carr, imagine the competition for 1.1. If teams opt out of the carr "sweepstakes", they're putting a lot of eggs in the draft basket.

But wait. Add in the possibility that a team likes levis and starts making offers for 1.3.

I do believe the colts will pay up to move up and I do believe it will cost them a lot. It's easy to say the quarterbacks aren't worth it when you're a fan for 50 years but when you're a gm for 2 years and hoping for 3, or a 75 year old owner hoping to win one before they die, your willingness to take risks changes.
 
3 scenarios they might drop to 11 I can see. If they feel they can get impact 3 and edge in FA, if they feel still a year away, if they feel Tennessee has a down year incorporationg rookie QB and next years pick has value would be 3 reasons they could drop this far. OL, TE or LB could be top pick at 11. I like that it ups everyone else's ante regardless ...

edit to add 1st sentance.
 
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First Coast News
@FCN2go

Rumors are swirling that the Tennessee Titans are looking to trade from No. 11 up to No. 1 in the 2023 NFL Draft.
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Could the Tennessee Titans trade up for the No. 1 pick? | Locked on Titans
I don’t think the Bears want to trade down that far.
Who are your sources?
Just my opinion, thus the words “I don’t think “.
 
I am so glad the Colts were not the team that did it. I guess Anderson is off the table for the Bears now. Probably Carter too, unless his recent troubles causes him to fall.
 
They should stay put and take an elite player.
They could absolutely molest the Colts and still get an elite player at 6.
We say this almost every year and it just as almost never happens.


As far as I can tell, the only one missing is the one for Goff.

Tennessee Titans received:
  • Picks No. 15, 43, 45, 76 in the 2016 draft
  • Picks No. 5, 100 in the 2017 draft

Los Angeles Rams received:
  • Picks No. 1, 113 in the 2017 draft
True, but there are a couple of very good quarterbacks coming out this year. And there are several very quarterback me the teams at the top of the draft.
There aren't though. There are decent QB's. None of these guys even should be 1.1 really. They might because the current NFL is so QB crazy. None of these guys are even close to a Lawrence or Burrow level prospect.
I think Stroud is pretty close to Burrow.

I also think Young is a better version of Kyler Murray.

I believe both of these quarterbacks will be excellent pros. But that’s just like, my opinion, maaaaan.
Do you mean as prospects or what you believe they can become (as far as comparisons)?
 
They should stay put and take an elite player.
They could absolutely molest the Colts and still get an elite player at 6.
We say this almost every year and it just as almost never happens.


As far as I can tell, the only one missing is the one for Goff.

Tennessee Titans received:
  • Picks No. 15, 43, 45, 76 in the 2016 draft
  • Picks No. 5, 100 in the 2017 draft

Los Angeles Rams received:
  • Picks No. 1, 113 in the 2017 draft
True, but there are a couple of very good quarterbacks coming out this year. And there are several very quarterback me the teams at the top of the draft.
There aren't though. There are decent QB's. None of these guys even should be 1.1 really. They might because the current NFL is so QB crazy. None of these guys are even close to a Lawrence or Burrow level prospect.
I think Stroud is pretty close to Burrow.

I also think Young is a better version of Kyler Murray.

I believe both of these quarterbacks will be excellent pros. But that’s just like, my opinion, maaaaan.
Do you mean as prospects or what you believe they can become (as far as comparisons)?
The latter - what I believe they can become.

I do not believe either will pop into the NFL in their final form, and play top 5 QB football, no. lol

Very few rookies take the league by storm.

Happy to clarify. :)
 
They should stay put and take an elite player.
They could absolutely molest the Colts and still get an elite player at 6.
We say this almost every year and it just as almost never happens.


As far as I can tell, the only one missing is the one for Goff.

Tennessee Titans received:
  • Picks No. 15, 43, 45, 76 in the 2016 draft
  • Picks No. 5, 100 in the 2017 draft

Los Angeles Rams received:
  • Picks No. 1, 113 in the 2017 draft
True, but there are a couple of very good quarterbacks coming out this year. And there are several very quarterback me the teams at the top of the draft.
There aren't though. There are decent QB's. None of these guys even should be 1.1 really. They might because the current NFL is so QB crazy. None of these guys are even close to a Lawrence or Burrow level prospect.
I think Stroud is pretty close to Burrow.

I also think Young is a better version of Kyler Murray.

I believe both of these quarterbacks will be excellent pros. But that’s just like, my opinion, maaaaan.
If Burrow was in this draft class, there wouldn't be any discussion about who was the top pick and he was a good prospect. I am not even sure I would call him very good.
 
If Burrow was in this draft class, there wouldn't be any discussion about who was the top pick and he was a good prospect. I am not even sure I would call him very good.
I was making comps, not saying each was literally their comp counterparts.

If Burrow were in this draft it wouldn’t even be a conversation as to who the top pick would be.
 
If Burrow was in this draft class, there wouldn't be any discussion about who was the top pick and he was a good prospect. I am not even sure I would call him very good.
Burrow had some flaws for sure but his final season at LSU was so overwhelmingly great that for me it pushed Burrow into the most elite level of QB prospect.
 
If Burrow was in this draft class, there wouldn't be any discussion about who was the top pick and he was a good prospect. I am not even sure I would call him very good.
Burrow had some flaws for sure but his final season at LSU was so overwhelmingly great that for me it pushed Burrow into the most elite level of QB prospect.
Zierlein really like him and in retrospect was dead on, but there are a shocking number of negative things in what was a strong eval of him
 
I expect they'll trade down. They'll get something like a top 10 pick, another 1st, and two 2nds, if it's a typical trade-up-for-a-top-QB.

That was roughly the going rate for Trey Lance, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Robert Griffin. The teams that drafted them traded up from pick 9.4 to pick 2.2, on average, while giving up an additional 1.2 firsts, 1.4 seconds, 0.6 thirds, and a little bit more (day 3 picks, or pick swaps).

If there's a bidding war they could get more.
They got more.

The Bears basically got the typical trade-up-for-a-top-QB haul, plus DJ Moore on top of that. They did move down a bit farther than average, but even accounting for that this rivals the RG3 trade for the biggest return for a team trading down (depending on details like how you value Moore, how steep a dropoff you see among the early picks, and whether you treat Griffin as more valuable than a typical 2nd overall pick QB).

2023 CAR 9->1 w CHI for ???: 1, DJ Moore, 2, 2
2021 SF 12->3 w MIA for Trey Lance: 1, 1, 3
2018 NYJ 6->3 w IND for Sam Darnold: 2, 2, 2
2016 PHI 8->2 w CLE for Carson Wentz: 1, 2, 3 +
2016 LAR 15->1 w TEN for Jared Goff: 1, 2, 2, 3 +
2012 WAS 6->2 w RAM for Robert Griffin: 1, 1, 2
 

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