With the first pick the the 2007 draft... (1 Viewer)

[Football Jones]

I'd be willing to bet if the Jets do have the #1 pick (or one of the first few picks), they won't be taking a QB. It wouldn't make sense, IMO. They spent a 2nd-rounder on Kellen Clemens this year. For one thing, too much money would be tied up in QB prospects (not to mention Pennington, if he's still there).

Has a team ever took a QB in the first few picks of a draft after taking a QB in round 2 the previous year? I don't know. Just asking.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Brady Quinn to Buffalo

----------------------------

Kellen Clemens is the QB

of the future for the Jets.

They won't be going after a QB next year.

I see the Jets going after Marshawn Lynch,

AP, or Michael Bush.

CuMar is done.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Jets have an above average defense, above average special teams, and a below average offense. Teams with less than five wins that changed coaches improved 29 out of 31 times since 1990. The Jets were one of the best teams in the league in 2004, and one of the worst in 2005 -- it's hard to make the claim that the Jets were "worse" than the average team with less than five wins. I'd imagine the Jets were a good deal better, since they were a very good team devastated by injuries. I don't know why you'd say they're at most going to win just one more game this year.

Mangini has one year of coordinator experience and is very young, so I expect he'll experience some growing pains before he enjoys success. The Jets also changed both offensive and defensive coordinators and their personnel on defense is not a great fit for the hybrid that Mangini wants to implement. They also traded away their best pass rusher and lost their best CB. Their QB and RB positions are uncertain without much reason for optimism. The offensive line has been almost completely rebuilt and will rely heavily on two rookies. They don't have a NT and are weak at OLB in a 3-4.

Here are four of the youngest guys ever hired to be coaches, and how they did their first year. Sure it sounds like he might experience growing pains because he's young, but I'm not sure the stats bear it out. Herm Edwards was supposed to have significant growing pains because he had never even been a coordinator before, but his first year with the Jets was tied for the best year out of five.
Head Coach Age First year's recordBill Cowher 35 11-5 Jon Gruden 35 8-8John Madden 29 12-1-1Don Shula 33 8-6Changing coordinators on both sides of the ball is neither good nor bad in a vacuum. I think the Jets OC and DC are just fine, although I do think they lost two pretty good ones.The rest of your comments are valid, but you forget what you're comparing them to. Sure the Jets OL is young, and there's no doubt that the Jets QB and RB are shaky. But last year, the Jets OL was horrible and the Jets QB and RB were pathetic. There's certainly reason for optimism that all three positions will be better in 2006.

A healthy Martin, Blaylock and Cedric Houston sounds better than a banged up Martin, injured Blaylock and rookie Houston.

A healthy Pennington, Ramsey, Clemens and Bollinger sounds a lot better than a banged up Pennington, an over the hill Testaverde, and a green Bollinger.

A young OL with the two best prospects in the draft and improvements at LG and RT sounds a lot better than the slop the Jets lined up with in 2005.

I agree with you about the personnel for the Jets 3-4, but we don't really know how often the Jets will play that. Surely Mangini will abandon it if he thinks the personnel doesn't suit the scheme. I don't think D-Rob is a great NT, but I do think Bryan Thomas would be a very good OLB. Losing Abraham hurts for sure, as does losing Ty Law. But the additions of a healthy Barton, Andre Dyson, and more seasoning out of Justin Miller and the three safeties should help balance that out.

The Jets don't have a great defense, but they were one of the best in the league in 2004. In 2005, the defense was on the field all the time but more than held its own. It's hard to judge a defense when the opponents run 554 times against you (most in the league), despite having an above average yards per carry against. The offense was horrible last year and the defense was spotty because of that (some games it didn't show up like against Denver). But overall, the defense has been very good the last few years, and I think it should be above average again in 2006.

Winning 6 games really isn't difficult in today's NFL, and they should certainly challenge for .500.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'd be willing to bet if the Jets do have the #1 pick (or one of the first few picks), they won't be taking a QB. It wouldn't make sense, IMO. They spent a 2nd-rounder on Kellen Clemens this year. For one thing, too much money would be tied up in QB prospects (not to mention Pennington, if he's still there).

Has a team ever took a QB in the first few picks of a draft after taking a QB in round 2 the previous year? I don't know. Just asking.

I think teams have drafted QBs in the first round in back to back years. I'll see if I can find out.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Here are four of the youngest guys ever hired to be coaches, and how they did their first year. Sure it sounds like he might experience growing pains because he's young, but I'm not sure the stats bear it out. Herm Edwards was supposed to have significant growing pains because he had never even been a coordinator before, but his first year with the Jets was tied for the best year out of five.

Head Coach    Age    First year's recordBill Cowher   35       11-5  Jon Gruden    35        8-8John Madden   29       12-1-1Don Shula     33        8-6

this is the group you put Mangini in? 2 guys are already in the Hall of Fame and the other 2 are on pace to make it as well.EDIT TO ADD: Since Bill Belichick has done so well in his second job as a head coach, I guess we can expect #### Jauron to have similar success in Buffalo.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

will anyone on the Jets finish with 5 or more sacks? I don't see it happening.

having no pass rush is going to be an issue for that defense and lining up Vilma behind Robertson at NT in a 3-4 also doesn't seem like a great idea for slowing down opponents running games.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here are four of the youngest guys ever hired to be coaches, and how they did their first year. Sure it sounds like he might experience growing pains because he's young, but I'm not sure the stats bear it out. Herm Edwards was supposed to have significant growing pains because he had never even been a coordinator before, but his first year with the Jets was tied for the best year out of five.

Head Coach Age First year's recordBill Cowher 35 11-5 Jon Gruden 35 8-8John Madden 29 12-1-1Don Shula 33 8-6

this is the group you put Mangini in? 2 guys are already in the Hall of Fame and the other 2 are on pace to make it as well.

Those were the four HCs I remembered that started out as young or younger than Mangini. I agree those really stand out from the rest, some of the best of all time. But do you have any to add to support your point?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Those were the four HCs I remembered that started out as young or younger than Mangini. Do you have any to add?

check out how David Shula did.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Those were the four HCs I remembered that started out as young or younger than Mangini. Do you have any to add?

check out how David Shula did.

That's a good one on the other side. He was 33 and obviously did pretty poorly. Of course, that only makes it 4 to 1. There's no doubt that overall very young coaches have been highly successful both initially and over the course of their careers.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Those were the four HCs I remembered that started out as young or younger than Mangini. Do you have any to add?

check out how David Shula did.

That's a good one on the other side. He was 33 and obviously did pretty poorly. Of course, that only makes it 4 to 1. There's no doubt that overall very young coaches have been highly successful both initially and over the course of their careers.

Mike Shanahan in Oakland.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Those were the four HCs I remembered that started out as young or younger than Mangini. Do you have any to add?

check out how David Shula did.

That's a good one on the other side. He was 33 and obviously did pretty poorly. Of course, that only makes it 4 to 1. There's no doubt that overall very young coaches have been highly successful both initially and over the course of their careers.

Mike Shanahan in Oakland.

Shanahan was 36 that year, and went 7-9. The Raiders went 5-10 the previous year. I'm not sure if it really advances your case or mine, so I'd put it at 4-1-1. And obviously for his career that's another mark in the successful column.

 

[Football Jones]

I'd be willing to bet if the Jets do have the #1 pick (or one of the first few picks), they won't be taking a QB. It wouldn't make sense, IMO. They spent a 2nd-rounder on Kellen Clemens this year. For one thing, too much money would be tied up in QB prospects (not to mention Pennington, if he's still there).

Has a team ever took a QB in the first few picks of a draft after taking a QB in round 2 the previous year? I don't know. Just asking.

I think teams have drafted QBs in the first round in back to back years. I'll see if I can find out.

Cool. I'm pretty sure it's never happened in the salary cap era, but again, I'm not positive.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Mike Tice was 42 when he took over the head coaching job in Minnesota but he had never been a coordinator before. They went 6-10 in his first year despite having the #1 ranked offense in the league.

Marty Mornhinweg was 39 years old when he took over the head coaching job in Detroit. I don't think he was an NFL coordinator before taking over that job and the team went 2-14 in his first season after having gone 9-7 the year before.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'd be willing to bet if the Jets do have the #1 pick (or one of the first few picks), they won't be taking a QB. It wouldn't make sense, IMO. They spent a 2nd-rounder on Kellen Clemens this year. For one thing, too much money would be tied up in QB prospects (not to mention Pennington, if he's still there).

Has a team ever took a QB in the first few picks of a draft after taking a QB in round 2 the previous year? I don't know. Just asking.

I think teams have drafted QBs in the first round in back to back years. I'll see if I can find out.

Cool. I'm pretty sure it's never happened in the salary cap era, but again, I'm not positive.

Having a bit of difficulty coming up with a formula for it, but an eyeball check saw that the 49ers drafted Earl Morrall in 1956 and John Brodie in 1957. Both were top 3 picks as well.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Mike Tice was 42 when he took over the head coaching job in Minnesota but he had never been a coordinator before. They went 6-10 in his first year despite having the #1 ranked offense in the league.

Marty Mornhinweg was 39 years old when he took over the head coaching job in Detroit. I don't think he was an NFL coordinator before taking over that job and the team went 2-14 in his first season after having gone 9-7 the year before.

Tice was quite a bit older than Mangini (if he had done well you probably wouldn't like it if I used him to support Mangini's case), but he's different since he was an interim coach. Mangini was hired away because the Jets thought he was extremely talented. I see a bit of a difference there, plus the Vikings ownership at the time seemed more concerned with holding on to a cheap coach then finding the best coach.Mornhinweg was a bad hire for sure, and definitely is an example of a young coach that didn't do well.

There have been some excellent young coaches and some horrible young coaches, which makes young coaches like every other subset of coaches to ever get a job. For every Mike Tice, there's a Jim Mora Jr. (43 years old, 11-5 his first year, team was 5-11 the year before). I just don't see evidence to support the proposition that young HCs do poorly.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'd be willing to bet if the Jets do have the #1 pick (or one of the first few picks), they won't be taking a QB. It wouldn't make sense, IMO. They spent a 2nd-rounder on Kellen Clemens this year. For one thing, too much money would be tied up in QB prospects (not to mention Pennington, if he's still there).

Has a team ever took a QB in the first few picks of a draft after taking a QB in round 2 the previous year? I don't know. Just asking.

I think teams have drafted QBs in the first round in back to back years. I'll see if I can find out.

Cool. I'm pretty sure it's never happened in the salary cap era, but again, I'm not positive.

Having a bit of difficulty coming up with a formula for it, but an eyeball check saw that the 49ers drafted Earl Morrall in 1956 and John Brodie in 1957. Both were top 3 picks as well.

I'm not sure what the compensation was for Steve Walsh, but the Cowboys used a supplemental pick on him the year they drafted Aikman (1989).The Jets might have drafted two first round QBs (Harold Stephens and Dean Look) in the same year (1962), but I'm having some difficulty in confirming that. The Dolphins might have drafted Rick Norton in 1966 and Bob Griese in 1967, but I can't confirm that one either.

That's all I could find.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

There have been some excellent young coaches and some horrible young coaches, which makes young coaches like every other subset of coaches to ever get a job. For every Mike Tice, there's a Jim Mora Jr. (43 years old, 11-5 his first year, team was 5-11 the year before). I just don't see evidence to support the proposition that young HCs do poorly.

instead of focusing on his age, consider his lack of coaching experience. how many coaches with as little coaching experience as Mangini have done well early on? the Patriots defense wasn't even that good last year when he was the coordinator. Now you expect him to come in and turn things around overnight?Since we're making comparisons to last year, the change from Herm Edwards to Eric Mangini has to be considered a downgrade for at least this season. Not only are the systems changing, but Edwards had consistent success in New York and actually commanded compensation from the Chiefs in exchange for the Jets letting him go. There aren't that many teams around the league who could actually get a draft pick in return for their current head coach.

 

[Kleck.]

1.01 - San Francisco - Joe Thomas

 

[Andy Dufresne]

1.01 - San Francisco - Joe Thomas

One year removed from an ACL injury?

 

[Chase Stuart]

There have been some excellent young coaches and some horrible young coaches, which makes young coaches like every other subset of coaches to ever get a job. For every Mike Tice, there's a Jim Mora Jr. (43 years old, 11-5 his first year, team was 5-11 the year before). I just don't see evidence to support the proposition that young HCs do poorly.

instead of focusing on his age, consider his lack of coaching experience. how many coaches with as little coaching experience as Mangini have done well early on? the Patriots defense wasn't even that good last year when he was the coordinator. Now you expect him to come in and turn things around overnight?Since we're making comparisons to last year, the change from Herm Edwards to Eric Mangini has to be considered a downgrade for at least this season. Not only are the systems changing, but Edwards had consistent success in New York and actually commanded compensation from the Chiefs in exchange for the Jets letting him go. There aren't that many teams around the league who could actually get a draft pick in return for their current head coach.

If we were to compare pre-season projections from last year to this year, I'd agree that the Jets made a coaching downgrade. Edwards made the playoffs the previous year and three of his four career seasons, while Mangini is an unknown. However, Edwards had a miserable year last year, and I wonder how much attention he really paid -- he seemed to be eyeing that Chiefs job all year. Edwards is a terrific motivator, but Mangini is likely to be a better Xs and Os guy. Herm always got by more on charisma than intelligence, and last year he either rubbed the players the wrong way or (more likely) there was just nothing to motivate. The Jets were ravished by injury and fell hard from their pre-season Super Bowl expectations. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Mangini to do a better job coaching the Jets this year than Edwards did coaching the 2004 Jets. On the other hand, I don't think Bill Cowher would have gotten the Jets anywhere near .500 in 2004 either.

 

[-OZ-]

There aren't that many teams around the league who could actually get a draft pick in return for their current head coach.

Not to hijack my own thread, but this strikes me as an interesting question. Do you mean those that would actually give up their coach, or out of any team? Didn't Gruden cost TB 2 1sts? I'd think there's at least a dozen HCs that another team would give a pick for. Those HCs just aren't going anywhere.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

There aren't that many teams around the league who could actually get a draft pick in return for their current head coach.

Not to hijack my own thread, but this strikes me as an interesting question. Do you mean those that would actually give up their coach, or out of any team? Didn't Gruden cost TB 2 1sts? I'd think there's at least a dozen HCs that another team would give a pick for. Those HCs just aren't going anywhere.

how many teams just changed their head coaches this year?among the rest, I could see these guys warranting some type of compensation for coaching elsewhere if they still had time left on their contract:

Jon Gruden

Bill Parcells

Joe Gibbs

Bill Cowher

Jeff Fisher

Marvin Lewis

John Fox

Mike Holmgren

Bill Belichick

Nick Saban

Lovie Smith

Herm Edwards

Tony Dungy

Mike Shanahan

Andy Reid

I guess there's more than I thought.

 

[Kleck.]

1.01 - San Francisco - Joe Thomas

One year removed from an ACL injury?

His health will be a major concern, and all reports I've seen and read suggest his rehab is going real well. If Thomas can have a strong 2nd half along with good medical reports during the combine or prior to the draft, he could certainly get back into the top 10 area, and possibly top 5 where anything can happen. I don't see any player right now being a lock for #1 and my homerism wanted to throw out another name besides Quinn and Peterson.

 

[turkishkamel]

I'm hoping to hear "The Detroit Lions select Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame ", but I don't really see Detroit there.

I'm going with "The New York Jets select Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame"

what say you?

this would be the happiest day of my life. at least until they fire matt millen

 

[5Rings]

1.01 - San Francisco - Joe Thomas

Not funny, dude.ETA--My bad, I thought you meant The Original Dr. Evil, ex-49er GM Joe Thomas who tore down the team and made brilliant trades like the 5 high picks for a broken OJ deal. Meh, thats what I get for having flashbacks to those years.

FWIW, I think the 49ers have a solid shot at the #1 pick, but highly doubt they'd go OT with the amount of $$ and high picks they've invested on the OL in the last 2-3 years.

I'd put the chances of having the #1 pick at:

49ers--15%

Browns--15%

Jets--15%

Bills--10%

Texans--10%

Redskins--5%

Packers--10%

Vikings--5%

Raiders--15%

49ers take Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson

 

[snorlax]

Top 100 prospects for the 2007 draft.

For reference.

Good info here.

Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame: Quinn enters next season nearly as strong a favorite to be drafted No. 1 overall as Reggie Bush was this time last year.

I'm pretty sure Matt Leinart was still the favorite to go #1 overall at this time last year. It wasn't until a few games were in the books that Bush overtook him. I'll still read the article despite this.

 

[Kleck.]

1.01 - San Francisco - Joe Thomas

One year removed from an ACL injury?

Thomas has been looking great. I've even been hearing quite a few rumblings that he's been impressing scouts more this year than than last year. Mel Kiper has gone as far to say Thomas is in the Boselli/Ogdon class, and is quite possibly one of the greatest LTs to ever play in college football (currently #2 on his Sr. Big Board behind Quinn).

 

[Kiddnets]

Check out the Jets schedule - there is no way that they will have a top 5 pick unless everything breaks wrong - I see a 7-9 type of year which is probably out of the top 10. 

I also agree that Mangini loves Clemens - a top playmaker next year will be a priority - remember the Jets have an extra 2nd rder from the Skins so they already have ammo.

there is no way the Jets win more than 6 games this year.

 

[Reaper]

Check out the Jets schedule - there is no way that they will have a top 5 pick unless everything breaks wrong - I see a 7-9 type of year which is probably out of the top 10. 

I also agree that Mangini loves Clemens - a top playmaker next year will be a priority - remember the Jets have an extra 2nd rder from the Skins so they already have ammo.

there is no way the Jets win more than 6 games this year.

:Goodthread:

 

[ptsteelers]

Sorry guys, but I think it will go ...

"With the first OA pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Oakland Raiders select :

Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan State"

Mark it down.

 

[BigRed]

You know nothing about Al Davis' drafting strategy. Mark it down. Joe Thomas is about 1,000 times more likely.

 

[ptsteelers]

Hell, Al Davis doesn't know Al Davis' draft strategy

 

[onionsack]

Al Davis'

...

drafting strategy.