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Witten 2006 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter shokker
- Start date
diesel7982
Footballguy
I severely doubt Glenn's presence will limit what the Cowboys allow TO to do in the passing game.
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
I think he will finish better than last year because he won't be called upon to block as often. However, I don't think he'll put up better numbers than 2004. TO will certainly decrease his targets but will make the targets he does get more effective.
M
MLBrandow
Guest
Anyone see the passing game looking like the '05 Giants?
Glenn=Toomer
TO=Plax
Witten=Shockey
Out on a limb?
I think Witten could be a solid #2WR
Glenn=Toomer
TO=Plax
Witten=Shockey
Out on a limb?
I think Witten could be a solid #2WR
Bankerguy
Footballguy
Well...I think it's fair to say that they won't use Glenn as the possession WR. Therefore, TO will catch more short and possession type of stuff. Glenn isn't limiting so much as everyone doing what they do best. Witten will lose targets.....imo.T.O. = single coverage for Glenn (Who is almost uncoverable 1 on 1).
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mightyeskimo
Footballguy
I agree with this. Glenn is a real burner and not having that extra safety deep (or at least not deep to Glenn's side of the field) will allow Terry to break more big ones than last year. He's a great sleeper WR#3/4.
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
I don't think Fasano will hurt Witten. I think the main reason for drafting him was to help block at the second level to keep the O-Line's (which is young in Allen's old position) focus on the D-Line. Fasano is great at blocking out LB's and DB's. He still needs work against DE's and DT's but he has the size and strength to get better. I think TO will be responsible for bogarting targets away from Witten much moreso than Fasano. Dallas knew the O-Line would regress after losing Allen so they're attempting to compensate for this. Fasano is also a good receiver which will help if a blitz is spotted on his end. However, I don't think that was the primary reason for selecting him.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I forget where I wrote/posted it, but Witten had a stretch with other guys out of the lineup that inflated his 2004 totals.
In Weeks 7-10 in 2004 with Glenn hurt, Jones hurt, Bryant just traded, George hurt, and Quincy Morgan seemingly lost in the offense, Witten put up 32-426-4 in those 4 games. Basically, 8-107-1 per game.
Looking at all his other games in 2004 + 2005, Witten has averaged 4.3-46.8-0.29 the rest of the time. That works out to a season of 69-749-5 (which is almost exactly what he had last year (66-757-6).
I suspect Witten may see a slight decrease, so I would peg him in the TE 6 or 7 range depending upon how some of the other TE progress this season.
In Weeks 7-10 in 2004 with Glenn hurt, Jones hurt, Bryant just traded, George hurt, and Quincy Morgan seemingly lost in the offense, Witten put up 32-426-4 in those 4 games. Basically, 8-107-1 per game.
Looking at all his other games in 2004 + 2005, Witten has averaged 4.3-46.8-0.29 the rest of the time. That works out to a season of 69-749-5 (which is almost exactly what he had last year (66-757-6).
I suspect Witten may see a slight decrease, so I would peg him in the TE 6 or 7 range depending upon how some of the other TE progress this season.
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Bankerguy
Footballguy
Don't underestimate the kid Fasano. Notre Dame ran a pro style offense under Weiss. I view Fasano like Heath Miller last year. I think he be a sneaky red zone target. He is a solid pass catcher as well as a blocker. I do agree that his primary duties will be blocking, but he will surprise with 3-5 TD's...imo. Noty sure I agree with the O-line opinion either. Why do you think the O-line will regress further this year....it can't get much worse than last year. After Flo went down there was a swinging gate at both tackle positions.
Flo is back and healthy.
Kosier.....like him or not was highly pursued by other teams and will be an upgrade over Allen
Centre...no change
Rivera should be heathier with another year removed from back surgey
More depth at RT (Fabiani/Pettiti/Columbo)
I think this group is going to surprise.
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
Very good observation to cause/effect. It makes me wonder why Parcell's didn't use him more over the whole season. Obviously he has great ability which he proved in that stretch. It was basically him and Keyshawn and Witten still went off. If Fasano can improve noticably as a blocker and Julius stays healthy as well as keeping a 4+ ypc, then turn TO, Glenn, and Witten loose to create absolute fits in the secondary off standard pro formations! Talk about a great play action!
Aaronstory
Footballguy
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
Perhaps regress is the wrong term. A better way to describe the O-Line would be to say it's still a point of emphasis with Larry gone. They did give up a large amount of sacks and only averaged 3.6 on the ground. Point taken.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
I have to respectfully disagree. The 2 TE sset is all about creating mis matches on the field. They will line up like this:TO..............Fasano..................Witten..............Glenn
So...where do you roll your safety?
Dallas will be a throwing team this year. They will audible to the run when teams sit back or play nickel or dime. Remember that Julius runs best out of a single back set. Most of his big plays are on draws and delays, which will work very well out this base formation.
diesel7982
Footballguy
I think I have more of an issue with the designation of "possession" WR and "non-possession WR(?)". Both recievers will do what they do best. With Witten and Fasano working in the middle of the field, we'll see TO still running his slants and his his deep routes.
diesel7982
Footballguy
Fasano is a threat to the Cowboys' #3 WR...likely Crayton...not to Witten.
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
Good point! I think that further emphasizes why they picked Fasano and not a O-Lineman. It gives the Dallas offense a much better chance to freeze defenses, keep them honest, create mis-matches, and prevent loading/attack/agressive defensive play-calling.
zamboni
Footballguy
Good insight, but just curious what makes you see the Cowboys as a throwing team when Bill seems to like pounding the ball/controlling the clock?As for the mismatches, I agree, but it seems like Julius got a lot of short dumpoffs. When you factor in a bunch of those along with TO getting a lot of targets, I just don't see a ton of targets left for Witten.
dapunisher
Footballguy
Outstanding post.Last year, Witten finished at #6. This season, I think his numbers will be similar, as DY projected, which will place him in the same range. But I also think that there will be a cluster of TEs in the 90-115 pts. range for the season. I expect Cooley (#4 '05) slips, and Gonzalez (#7 '05) moves up, and maybe Heath Miller or Troupe makes a challenge for top 5. That's how I see it.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
That is Parcells preference, but he will play to his team's strengths. Look back to Bledsoe's #'s in New England. I can't quote the actual numbers but I believe Bledsoe set a record for attempts.2006 Outlook
-Swtiched to a Base Offense that promotes a passing game.
-Have an immobile but effective pocket passer.
-Have an average to below average blocking O-line.
-Add the arguably best WR in game now.
They will be a passing team...imo.
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The middle of the field is going to be wide open, given the presence of Glenn and Owens. Put yourself into a defensive coordinator's position. Do you...
Take away the outside; anything behind the FS; show early double on TO and keep the play in front of you, while leaving the TE in single coverage with a LB or do you account for the TE and take a DB out of coverage to shade; leave one or more WR with 1 v. 1 match-ups and give up the security on the out, in and anything deep/behind?
Considering the threat that Owens and Glenn represent, Witten's going to have plenty of room to operate in that offense between the hash marks. Technically, yes there are only so many snaps, attempts and receptions available in an offense. Yes, at a surface level it looks like there may not be enough attempts and receptions to go around. Dig a little deeper and it becomes evident either Witten or Glenn will be the pass catcher with the likelihood of having the best 1 v 1 match-up over the course of the game and, ultimately, season.
Parcells' offense is predicated on clock control and not turning the ball over. Bledsoe is not a QB that forces the play. Thus, I do not see him bypassing reads in Witten or Glenn that will be in his favor versus making sure Owens gets his. Witten will be open...often...and see the football.
I am of the belief that Owens' arrival will aid Witten.
Take away the outside; anything behind the FS; show early double on TO and keep the play in front of you, while leaving the TE in single coverage with a LB or do you account for the TE and take a DB out of coverage to shade; leave one or more WR with 1 v. 1 match-ups and give up the security on the out, in and anything deep/behind?
Considering the threat that Owens and Glenn represent, Witten's going to have plenty of room to operate in that offense between the hash marks. Technically, yes there are only so many snaps, attempts and receptions available in an offense. Yes, at a surface level it looks like there may not be enough attempts and receptions to go around. Dig a little deeper and it becomes evident either Witten or Glenn will be the pass catcher with the likelihood of having the best 1 v 1 match-up over the course of the game and, ultimately, season.
Parcells' offense is predicated on clock control and not turning the ball over. Bledsoe is not a QB that forces the play. Thus, I do not see him bypassing reads in Witten or Glenn that will be in his favor versus making sure Owens gets his. Witten will be open...often...and see the football.
I am of the belief that Owens' arrival will aid Witten.
On The Rocks
Footballguy
i'm not sold that the Cowboys OL is really improved.
that has two affects on Witten.
1. he will need to stay in block more.
2. he will be a dump off target.
end result: I look for him to repeat his numbers from last season.
look for him to get most of his targets in the 4th quarter when the Cowboys are ahead and trying to keep drives alive.
1st, 2nd, 3rd Qtr....look for lots of T.O. and running game.
that has two affects on Witten.
1. he will need to stay in block more.
2. he will be a dump off target.
end result: I look for him to repeat his numbers from last season.
look for him to get most of his targets in the 4th quarter when the Cowboys are ahead and trying to keep drives alive.
1st, 2nd, 3rd Qtr....look for lots of T.O. and running game.
diesel7982
Footballguy
Parcells plays to his team's strengths, not to a personal philosophy. His team is set up well to throw the ball this year; hes not going to try to turn them into a running team.
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
If I were Bill I think this is the route I'd take. You have, arguably, the best WR in the game so yeah, I would start with the pass and make teams stop you in the secondary. Use the pass to set up the run, so to speak. You have the tools with TO (strong possession guy) to run the slant, make catches in traffic using his body, and still go deep, Glenn as a speedster that can consistently get behind a D, and Witten who can work the center very effectively, so why not start there. Really open things up for Jones and Barber.
On The Rocks
Footballguy
i think your list answers your own question. it may not be worse, but it certainly doesn't look better.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
Keep in mind that TO runs a ton of slants to the middle of the field, but I know what you are saying about the middle being open. Here's how I see it. When the middle looks "soft" Fasano and Witten will run routes that take the LB's away from the LOS (middle). They then run up the gut. As I mentioned earlier.....JJ runs his best when he runs out of a single backfield or "Ace Tight" as they will call it. The draw play has been his bread and butter. Chicago Thanksgiving game and the Seattle and Carolina games....all draws or delays.
I still see Witten a taking a minor hit overall.
Glenn is value this year. I predicted in his Spotlight thread 10tds.
nygiants56
Footballguy
fasano makes witten MORE dangerous, not less dangerous..last year, the Cowboys had to keep Witten in to block , due to o-line injuries..
Fasano is a good blocker, so that'll help out along the o-line..
Witten will carve it up in '06 since teams can't account for him,and he should be involved in more pass plays with T.O. around, not less..
Parcells loves his TE's, and won't change that whatsoever.
Fasano stays in to do what Witten did last year, i.e., block, allowing Witten to work on passing plays over the middle of the field..
Urinal Mint
Footballguy
Witten's production will go only so far as the offensive line allows him to go. If the line stinks again, look for him to be held in to block (along with Ryan Hannam), nullifying his ability to get downfield.
If the Cowboys can't pass-protect (and I have a sneaking suspicion they be unable to) then the passing game as a whole will be an afterthought unless it's a quick slant or quick out.
If the Cowboys can't pass-protect (and I have a sneaking suspicion they be unable to) then the passing game as a whole will be an afterthought unless it's a quick slant or quick out.
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