Woodrow's 2005 Mock Draft: FINAL EDITION (1 Viewer)

[IndyHavoc]

Excellent work, Wood. I tend to very much agree with the trade-up values you have in place. By everything we've seen/heard and are privvy to, the value of picks 1-12 are absolutely SUPER LOW this year (as GM's just have hugely varied values on these players).Anyway, wanted to give you a big pat on the back for these 2 picks:

3.78 Houston Texans — WR Courtney Roby, IndianaCharlie Casserly can’t let Roby fall any farther, and opts to add the speedy receiver even though WR depth is hardly the Texans biggest need. Roby, a 4-year starter at Indiana, has experience at both split end and flanker, runs a 4.4 40, and is fearless over the middle.3.98 Seattle Seahawks — RB Brandon Jacobs, Southern IllinoisOnly die hard collegiate football fans realize that Auburn actually had 3 future NFL RBs on its roster. While Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams are household names, Brandon Jacobs was once part of the same backfield before transferring to Southern Illinois in a bid for more playing time. Jacobs is built more like an NFL defensive end (6’4”, 267 lbs.) than a running back, but runs well (4.55) and offers a bruising, move-the-chains style. Jacobs is an unproven receiver, although he acquitted himself well in drills. Importantly, Jacobs has been described as a “devastating blocker” opening the door for his use as a FB at times.

These are 2 guys I've got to watch numerous times. I'd love for them to slide lower into the draft and have the Colts or Rams get ahold of them. I'd REALLY love to see the Rams get Roby, as this guy just reminds me of Ike Bruce in so many ways. With some good WR coaching, he's got that kind of potential.

 

[Sammy3469]

A couple of Panther notes...I'll leave the first round alone because everybody seems to think they'll take Williamson. The Panthers have a ton of second day picks, so I'd look for them to target guys in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and move up and draft for need. That means a DT and O-line. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they moved up and grabbed Patterson. The other possibility that I think is likely is they go after Baas. They aren't too happy with Mitchell and the steriod stuff. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they go that route. In the 3rd I think they'll target whatever they didn't take in the second (DT of OL). I really don't think RB is a need though I wouldn't be surprised if they took one later in the draft.

 

[Bob Magaw]

If Mark Bradley gets taken in the third with a 10" vertical leap, imagine where he'd be taken if he had a 20" vertical leap!

there is an unsubstantiated rumor circulating among FBG staff that joe bryant has a mind numbing 24" vertical.he has been known to snatch a dollar off the top of a refrigerator and leave change. ;^D

 

[mbuehner]

No way Mike Williams is going 8th imo. Edwards is the smokescreen the top pickers are talking up. Williams the top teams have been surprisingly quiet about. He may very well go top 3. I agree with Herd, if Williams somehow slips down past the 5th pick teams will be itching to jump up and get him.

 

[SammyJankis]

Pac Man Jones, Chris Spencer, Adrian McPherson and Kevin Everett on the first day? Plus the Cards acquire Travis Henry? You sure you're not a Cardinals homer? As a Cardinals fan, that draft would be pretty close to best case scenario.What do you make of the Cardinals releasing both Raynoch Thompson and Levar Woods earlier in the week? The move wasn't strange, Thompson had a beef with the team and neither was going to start, but the timing was odd. Why cut those guys a week and a half before the draft?I've been in the "Draft Derrick Johnson" camp for awhile, but think that the Cards are going to go corner in the first this year. I think the moves of cutting the LBs mentioned above was to suggest to teams interested in Derrick Johnson that we might draft him. Smells like a smokescreen.So yeah, with a chance to move down a couple of spots in the first round and pick up additional picks, I think the Cards would be all over it. Graves and Green have made no secret about the fact that they'll be looking to add additional picks in this draft. It wouldn't shock me at all to see them drop to the middle of the round and take Carlos Rogers.Overall, a great mock and a fun read.

 

[nightshift]

This is the best, most well-written, and most comprehensive mock I've seen, and I've looked at literally dozens of draft sites. Free content which rivals and/or exceeds pay content on other sites is what makes FBG great... Jason, you are to be commended for the effort you put into this. Just terrific stuff.

Question for you on...... you guessed it, Pittsburgh. Marlin Jackson is the guy I have seen most frequently projected to Pittsburgh at this spot, so I have a two-parter on this pick...

1) Do you think Jackson, despite his lack of elite speed, still projects as a solid 1st-round corner? He is a very good run-stopper, but a 4.6 40 is not very quick and has led to a smattering of speculation that Jackson may end up playing FS before long. What are your thoughts on his prospects as a #1 CB?

2) Why is CB perceived as Pittsburgh's top need? With Willie Williams, who played very well last year, and Deshea Townshend penciled in as the opening day starters, and 2 flyers in Ike Talyor and last year's 2nd round pick (whom they traded up for), Ricardo Colclough behind them, do you think CB is as big a need as WR, DE (von Oelhoeffen is getting long in the tooth), or especially - OL depth? Or is this just a BPA scenario?

Another point to ponder on: Steelers are still in talks with Ty Law. If they are serious about him, that's a lot of DB depth.I would like them to go Matt Jones here, but my guess would be OL (Baas).

 

[JPinSoCal]

Great work Jason. You put more effort into your mock than I've seen in most on the net. I can hardly wait for 4/23!

 

[Funkley]

Like Evilgrin said, I've looked at many mocks and this one was clearly superior and looks to have the most thought and attention put into it I've seen. Well done. As a Vikes fan this scenario would thrill me but I'm skeptical they could move up that easily. If it were to cost them more than a 3rd round pick I'd prefer they syay put. If they should have to stay at #7 what do you see the Vikes doing? 'Insiders' say the Vikes love the RB's but are very down on Derrick Johnson. Thanks.

 

[Funkley]

No way Mike Williams is going 8th imo. Edwards is the smokescreen the top pickers are talking up. Williams the top teams have been surprisingly quiet about. He may very well go top 3. I agree with Herd, if Williams somehow slips down past the 5th pick teams will be itching to jump up and get him.

The problem is that the one knock on him, speed, is a legitimate knock.

 

[The Gatekeeper]

Hey Jason good mock. One little thing that I thought somebody would have mentioned already was in the Dallas/Jets deal in the 1st round you put "Minnesota receives" instead of New York Jets. I am 99.9% that my Vikes trade up with either Cleveland or Miami for Edwards. Good job again.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

This is the best, most well-written, and most comprehensive mock I've seen, and I've looked at literally dozens of draft sites.  Free content which rivals and/or exceeds pay content on other sites is what makes FBG great... Jason, you are to be commended for the effort you put into this.  Just terrific stuff.

Question for you on...... you guessed it, Pittsburgh.  Marlin Jackson is the guy I have seen most frequently projected to Pittsburgh at this spot, so I have a two-parter on this pick...

1) Do you think Jackson, despite his lack of elite speed, still projects as a solid 1st-round corner?  He is a very good run-stopper, but a 4.6 40 is not very quick and has led to a smattering of speculation that Jackson may end up playing FS before long.  What are your thoughts on his prospects as a #1 CB?

2) Why is CB perceived as Pittsburgh's top need?  With Willie Williams, who played very well last year, and Deshea Townshend penciled in as the opening day starters, and 2 flyers in Ike Talyor and last year's 2nd round pick (whom they traded up for), Ricardo Colclough behind them, do you think CB is as big a need as WR, DE (von Oelhoeffen is getting long in the tooth), or especially - OL depth?  Or is this just a BPA scenario?

Another point to ponder on: Steelers are still in talks with Ty Law. If they are serious about him, that's a lot of DB depth.I would like them to go Matt Jones here, but my guess would be OL (Baas).

Are they really still talking to Law? I thought that had gone by the wayside... if they end up signing him somehow, no way do they draft a CB at all, let alone in round 1.Matt Jones scares me in round 1. The guy has a world of potential and his metrics are off the charts, but that's a high risk with a first-round choice. If the guy can't make the jump to WR (at least within the duration of his rookie contract) - that's a pretty big matzo ball hanging out there when they are perilously thin on the OL. A back-up OL in round 1 certainly isn't a "sexy" pick, but I have nightmares about Hartings' knee going out, and Simmons has had such an injury history that he frightens me as well. Either one of those guys gets seriously hurt, and it could well be the end of his career, so a guy like Baas could loom LARGE. I'd like to see them go RB in round 3 or later, just because this is a very deep draft at RB and a guy like Moats, Arrington, Shelton, etc. could be had there and be a potential starter for 7 years on this team. A deep-threat WR would be nice too, but isn't necessarily a "need", as we don't know about Randle-El as a full-time SE yet. A DE to replace von Oelhoffen would be nice too....

 

[Newman]

Could very well be a smoke screen, but the buzz around Dallas is that the Cowboys aren't interested in Johnson. Their interest in Merriman is well publicized, but according to a nationally respected writer for the DMN (Rick Gosselin), they are also very intrigued by Ware.

 

[bshipper]

bshipper re: Travis Johnson to CIN -- Hey Bshipper, you're the 2nd Bengals fan to express distaste for that pick. Is it because you don't think Travis Johnson projects that high? Or you just don't want the Bengals to take him? I'm honestly looking for some CIN insight on this one as I realize he's not the most consistent worker (and he's one of my picks for 1st round BUST) but I think he grades out at a premier position (DT) and goes no lower than the mid 20s.

I see how it is, he is your first round BUST, so that must mean the Bengals take him! (only because it has been true too many times)I simply do not believe he is a Marvin type of player. One proven year (ala Akili Smith), character issues and like you said, not consistent, not what Marvin wants and he will be able to see that.

Not to mention, it sounds like Marvin likes what he has on the DL. Young guys like Moore, Geathers and Askew, veterans like Powell and Thornton, new guy in Robinson. The real glaring needs, IMO, are DB, LB, OL, TE.

Like I said, if they were to go DL, I think they at least trade down for Shaun Cody. My gut is they really want Thomas Davis.

 

[nightshift]

This is the best, most well-written, and most comprehensive mock I've seen, and I've looked at literally dozens of draft sites. Free content which rivals and/or exceeds pay content on other sites is what makes FBG great... Jason, you are to be commended for the effort you put into this. Just terrific stuff.

Question for you on...... you guessed it, Pittsburgh. Marlin Jackson is the guy I have seen most frequently projected to Pittsburgh at this spot, so I have a two-parter on this pick...

1) Do you think Jackson, despite his lack of elite speed, still projects as a solid 1st-round corner? He is a very good run-stopper, but a 4.6 40 is not very quick and has led to a smattering of speculation that Jackson may end up playing FS before long. What are your thoughts on his prospects as a #1 CB?

2) Why is CB perceived as Pittsburgh's top need? With Willie Williams, who played very well last year, and Deshea Townshend penciled in as the opening day starters, and 2 flyers in Ike Talyor and last year's 2nd round pick (whom they traded up for), Ricardo Colclough behind them, do you think CB is as big a need as WR, DE (von Oelhoeffen is getting long in the tooth), or especially - OL depth? Or is this just a BPA scenario?

Another point to ponder on: Steelers are still in talks with Ty Law. If they are serious about him, that's a lot of DB depth.I would like them to go Matt Jones here, but my guess would be OL (Baas).

Are they really still talking to Law? I thought that had gone by the wayside... if they end up signing him somehow, no way do they draft a CB at all, let alone in round 1.Matt Jones scares me in round 1. The guy has a world of potential and his metrics are off the charts, but that's a high risk with a first-round choice. If the guy can't make the jump to WR (at least within the duration of his rookie contract) - that's a pretty big matzo ball hanging out there when they are perilously thin on the OL. A back-up OL in round 1 certainly isn't a "sexy" pick, but I have nightmares about Hartings' knee going out, and Simmons has had such an injury history that he frightens me as well. Either one of those guys gets seriously hurt, and it could well be the end of his career, so a guy like Baas could loom LARGE. I'd like to see them go RB in round 3 or later, just because this is a very deep draft at RB and a guy like Moats, Arrington, Shelton, etc. could be had there and be a potential starter for 7 years on this team. A deep-threat WR would be nice too, but isn't necessarily a "need", as we don't know about Randle-El as a full-time SE yet. A DE to replace von Oelhoffen would be nice too....

Only because its you...

The Tribune-Review reports Kevin Colbert, director of football operations for the Steelers, said Tuesday there continues to be "mutual interest" between the organization and former All-Pro CB Ty Law. Law visited the team's practice facilities last month and met with Colbert, coach Bill Cowher and chariman Dan Rooney, among others. Law, a native of Aliquippa, was released by the New England Patriots in a salary purge last February.

Jones could very well play TE-WR (I don't care what he said. The guys signin' the checks make the rules. ). The best secenario is take Baas in one, trade up in two and get Jones!

 

[Evilgrin 72]

This is the best, most well-written, and most comprehensive mock I've seen, and I've looked at literally dozens of draft sites.  Free content which rivals and/or exceeds pay content on other sites is what makes FBG great... Jason, you are to be commended for the effort you put into this.  Just terrific stuff.

Question for you on...... you guessed it, Pittsburgh.  Marlin Jackson is the guy I have seen most frequently projected to Pittsburgh at this spot, so I have a two-parter on this pick...

1) Do you think Jackson, despite his lack of elite speed, still projects as a solid 1st-round corner?  He is a very good run-stopper, but a 4.6 40 is not very quick and has led to a smattering of speculation that Jackson may end up playing FS before long.  What are your thoughts on his prospects as a #1 CB?

2) Why is CB perceived as Pittsburgh's top need?  With Willie Williams, who played very well last year, and Deshea Townshend penciled in as the opening day starters, and 2 flyers in Ike Talyor and last year's 2nd round pick (whom they traded up for), Ricardo Colclough behind them, do you think CB is as big a need as WR, DE (von Oelhoeffen is getting long in the tooth), or especially - OL depth?  Or is this just a BPA scenario?

Another point to ponder on: Steelers are still in talks with Ty Law. If they are serious about him, that's a lot of DB depth.I would like them to go Matt Jones here, but my guess would be OL (Baas).

Are they really still talking to Law? I thought that had gone by the wayside... if they end up signing him somehow, no way do they draft a CB at all, let alone in round 1.Matt Jones scares me in round 1. The guy has a world of potential and his metrics are off the charts, but that's a high risk with a first-round choice. If the guy can't make the jump to WR (at least within the duration of his rookie contract) - that's a pretty big matzo ball hanging out there when they are perilously thin on the OL. A back-up OL in round 1 certainly isn't a "sexy" pick, but I have nightmares about Hartings' knee going out, and Simmons has had such an injury history that he frightens me as well. Either one of those guys gets seriously hurt, and it could well be the end of his career, so a guy like Baas could loom LARGE. I'd like to see them go RB in round 3 or later, just because this is a very deep draft at RB and a guy like Moats, Arrington, Shelton, etc. could be had there and be a potential starter for 7 years on this team. A deep-threat WR would be nice too, but isn't necessarily a "need", as we don't know about Randle-El as a full-time SE yet. A DE to replace von Oelhoffen would be nice too....

Only because its you...

The Tribune-Review reports Kevin Colbert, director of football operations for the Steelers, said Tuesday there continues to be "mutual interest" between the organization and former All-Pro CB Ty Law. Law visited the team's practice facilities last month and met with Colbert, coach Bill Cowher and chariman Dan Rooney, among others. Law, a native of Aliquippa, was released by the New England Patriots in a salary purge last February.

Jones could very well play TE-WR (I don't care what he said. The guys signin' the checks make the rules. ). The best secenario is take Baas in one, trade up in two and get Jones!

Wow - that's surprising. The Steelers are pretty close to the cap, IIRC, so I didn't see how Law would fit into their plans. Jones would be great stretching the field at TE, but questions remain about blocking, which up until now, as you know, has been the Pittsburgh TE's primary responsibility...

 

[EBF]

Nice job. I know this year's RBs tend to be highly thought of, but I'll be very surprised if they all go that high. It just doesn't seem to jive with recent history. The trend seems to be passing on RBs in favor of WRs, DBs, DLs, QBs, and OLs. I know we've been hearing about how great Brown, Benson, and Williams are, but I think a lot of that is coming from the hype machine. Last year everyone was touting Steven Jackson as a possible top ten pick. He ended up falling quite a bit. There are some teams early in the draft who could use an upgrade at RB, but it seems unlikely that every one of them will go with a back come draft day.

 

[SammyJankis]

Nice job.

I know this year's RBs tend to be highly thought of, but I'll be very surprised if they all go that high. It just doesn't seem to jive with recent history. The trend seems to be passing on RBs in favor of WRs, DBs, DLs, QBs, and OLs. I know we've been hearing about how great Brown, Benson, and Williams are, but I think a lot of that is coming from the hype machine. Last year everyone was touting Steven Jackson as a possible top ten pick. He ended up falling quite a bit. There are some teams early in the draft who could use an upgrade at RB, but it seems unlikely that every one of them will go with a back come draft day.

I believe the thread has been deleted on the board, but shortly before the draft, Pasquerelli called Steven Jackson "a lock" to be a top 10 selection, and I started a thread saying IMO he was anything but.

 

[Ridgelake]

Woodrow,After studying the mock for awhile, I have one small nit. (Yes, it took me awhile to discover it ).The Cowboy/Jets trade is rather slanted towards the Jets. Based upon the pick value chart:Jets Get:1/20 = 850Cowboys Get1/26 = 7005/26 = 302006 4th = ~35Total for Dallas ~765.Thats a difference of 85 points, or the value of pick 4/9.The value difference between 1/20 and 1/26 is 150 points, which is the exact value of 3/24. Given that the Jets have a 3rd rounder within a pick or two of that spot, the logical trade would be 1/20 for 1/26 and 3/88. I could also see this happening for 1/26 and a 2006 2nd.Now it can be argued that the value chart is off this year due to the lack of top end talent. But I would argue that after the first 5 to 10 picks, this draft is more or less normal. So the value chart would be applicable for the picks involved in this trade. As such, Dallas would require more value to make the drop back from 20 to 26.Regards

 

[Jason Wood]

This is why it's so hard to make my FINAL mock the end all, be all FINAL until the very minute of the actual draft. Luis Castillo admitted to using steroids after a positive test at the Combine. There's no way he's a 1st rounder now much less someone the Eagles will need to go up and get.

 

[Colin Dowling]

This is why it's so hard to make my FINAL mock the end all, be all FINAL until the very minute of the actual draft. Luis Castillo admitted to using steroids after a positive test at the Combine. There's no way he's a 1st rounder now much less someone the Eagles will need to go up and get.

Ditto that with Hawthorne in the top 60...COlin

 

[Jason Wood]

This is why it's so hard to make my FINAL mock the end all, be all FINAL until the very minute of the actual draft. Luis Castillo admitted to using steroids after a positive test at the Combine. There's no way he's a 1st rounder now much less someone the Eagles will need to go up and get.

Ditto that with Hawthorne in the top 60...COlin

This makes the DT position all the weaker, and frankly cements guys like Travis Johnson and Shaun Cody as first rounders IMHO

 

[Colin Dowling]

This is why it's so hard to make my FINAL mock the end all, be all FINAL until the very minute of the actual draft. Luis Castillo admitted to using steroids after a positive test at the Combine. There's no way he's a 1st rounder now much less someone the Eagles will need to go up and get.

Ditto that with Hawthorne in the top 60...COlin

This makes the DT position all the weaker, and frankly cements guys like Travis Johnson and Shaun Cody as first rounders IMHO

Mike Patterson and Attiyah Ellison will be the biggest benificiaries in terms of total draft spots. Colin

 

[-OZ-]

2.51 Green Bay Packers — QB Charlie Frye, Akron

Finally the 3rd QB is off the board and it’s Frye, the latest MAC QB to make his presence felt in the NFL (following in the footsteps of Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich and Big Ben Roethlisberger)

people seem to always omit Dante Culpepper from the list of stand out MAC QB's He went to Central Florida which at the time was part of the Mid American Conference

Culpepper did not play in the MAC

 

[IndyHavoc]

Nice job.

I know this year's RBs tend to be highly thought of, but I'll be very surprised if they all go that high. It just doesn't seem to jive with recent history. The trend seems to be passing on RBs in favor of WRs, DBs, DLs, QBs, and OLs. I know we've been hearing about how great Brown, Benson, and Williams are, but I think a lot of that is coming from the hype machine. Last year everyone was touting Steven Jackson as a possible top ten pick. He ended up falling quite a bit. There are some teams early in the draft who could use an upgrade at RB, but it seems unlikely that every one of them will go with a back come draft day.

Couldn't agree more. I just don't see it, and think this one factor will be what makes EVERY mock thus far completely and totally off. I think in place of this sure-fired run on RB's and WR's, you'll see many more of the 3-4 DE/OLB's come off the board in the top 15 picks than most have projected.

 

[Jason Wood]

Nice job.

I know this year's RBs tend to be highly thought of, but I'll be very surprised if they all go that high. It just doesn't seem to jive with recent history. The trend seems to be passing on RBs in favor of WRs, DBs, DLs, QBs, and OLs. I know we've been hearing about how great Brown, Benson, and Williams are, but I think a lot of that is coming from the hype machine. Last year everyone was touting Steven Jackson as a possible top ten pick. He ended up falling quite a bit. There are some teams early in the draft who could use an upgrade at RB, but it seems unlikely that every one of them will go with a back come draft day.

Couldn't agree more. I just don't see it, and think this one factor will be what makes EVERY mock thus far completely and totally off. I think in place of this sure-fired run on RB's and WR's, you'll see many more of the 3-4 DE/OLB's come off the board in the top 15 picks than most have projected.

Entirely possible. Although as I've said in prior threads, I would bet quite a bit on the premise that at least two of the 3 RBs go in the top 10. One may fall, but not beyond the 13th-14th pick.

 

[beef]

Nice job Wood. The time and effort put into this is top notch. I don't quite agree with everything, but it is well worth the read and the info for each pick is some of the best I've seen this year. Hey Dodds, Give this man a raise!

 

[Bojang0301]

2.51 Green Bay Packers — QB Charlie Frye, Akron

Finally the 3rd QB is off the board and it’s Frye, the latest MAC QB to make his presence felt in the NFL (following in the footsteps of Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich and Big Ben Roethlisberger)

people seem to always omit Dante Culpepper from the list of stand out MAC QB's He went to Central Florida which at the time was part of the Mid American Conference

Culpepper did not play in the MAC

Didn't they move to the MAC his last season he was with them?

 

[Marc Levin]

Marc Levin re: FINs & BEARs -- Admittedly the talk is heating up re: Tampa and Miami making a trade but frankly, I'm still not buying it. If there's one position the Bucs don't have a major need it's QB, and why trade up in a year when virtually everyone else thinks Rodgers and Smith aren't worth top 3 money? Just about EVERY mock has the Dolphins trading down (or trying) because of their need to stockpile picks, but I think that paints them as desperate and Saban isn't going to give up the farm. He'll get a few picks (probably two 4ths) from KC for Surtain IMHO and that will be that. As to the Bears, I'm paying homage to Bob Kemp on this one, I think he knows something and it just makes no sense to bring in Ron Turner and not give him a workhorse tailback to build around.

Agree on the phins being desperate to trade down, but a move with TB is not essential - a move with Minnesota could happen as we get a li'l closer to the draft (assuming they want Edwards that badly).Surtain for two fourths? Really? I need to catch up on some news/rumors. Trade Surtain and not pick up a third round pick is not a good trade for the phins and stinks of desparation, too.

Unfortunately, I think you are right that they will keep the pick - fortunately, I am nowhere near as convinced they spend that 2nd overall pick on Brown.

 

[Marc Levin]

Nice job.

I know this year's RBs tend to be highly thought of, but I'll be very surprised if they all go that high. It just doesn't seem to jive with recent history. The trend seems to be passing on RBs in favor of WRs, DBs, DLs, QBs, and OLs. I know we've been hearing about how great Brown, Benson, and Williams are, but I think a lot of that is coming from the hype machine. Last year everyone was touting Steven Jackson as a possible top ten pick. He ended up falling quite a bit. There are some teams early in the draft who could use an upgrade at RB, but it seems unlikely that every one of them will go with a back come draft day.

Couldn't agree more. I just don't see it, and think this one factor will be what makes EVERY mock thus far completely and totally off. I think in place of this sure-fired run on RB's and WR's, you'll see many more of the 3-4 DE/OLB's come off the board in the top 15 picks than most have projected.

Entirely possible. Although as I've said in prior threads, I would bet quite a bit on the premise that at least two of the 3 RBs go in the top 10. One may fall, but not beyond the 13th-14th pick.

100% agreement - and given the teams in the top-10, it is entirely reasonable that all three go top-10. Since the two top-10 QBs are underwhelming, and there aren't any clear cut top-10 OL talents, three RBs in the top-12 is at least a distinct possibility.

 

[Jason Wood]

Marc Levin re: FINs & BEARs -- Admittedly the talk is heating up re: Tampa and Miami making a trade but frankly, I'm still not buying it. If there's one position the Bucs don't have a major need it's QB, and why trade up in a year when virtually everyone else thinks Rodgers and Smith aren't worth top 3 money? Just about EVERY mock has the Dolphins trading down (or trying) because of their need to stockpile picks, but I think that paints them as desperate and Saban isn't going to give up the farm. He'll get a few picks (probably two 4ths) from KC for Surtain IMHO and that will be that. As to the Bears, I'm paying homage to Bob Kemp on this one, I think he knows something and it just makes no sense to bring in Ron Turner and not give him a workhorse tailback to build around.

Agree on the phins being desperate to trade down, but a move with TB is not essential - a move with Minnesota could happen as we get a li'l closer to the draft (assuming they want Edwards that badly).Surtain for two fourths? Really? I need to catch up on some news/rumors. Trade Surtain and not pick up a third round pick is not a good trade for the phins and stinks of desparation, too.

Unfortunately, I think you are right that they will keep the pick - fortunately, I am nowhere near as convinced they spend that 2nd overall pick on Brown.

KC doesn't have a 3rd to offer, so it's either this year's 4th PLUS something else (they've offered their 4th only at this point) or their 2nd, which they've said No to based on existing reports.So I figured if KC thinks a 2nd is too much, but agrees that a 4th isn't enough...a 4th this year and maybe a 4th next year (which could be a 3rd conditionally) made some sense.

Saban is going to be willing to take picks in 2006 too I think. He realizes they're not one year away from contention and that gives him flexibility to get to know the team, make more personnel moves next offseason, and get a better picture of their cap for what should be a strong and top heavy 2006 draft.

 

[Marc Levin]

Marc Levin re: FINs & BEARs -- Admittedly the talk is heating up re: Tampa and Miami making a trade but frankly, I'm still not buying it. If there's one position the Bucs don't have a major need it's QB, and why trade up in a year when virtually everyone else thinks Rodgers and Smith aren't worth top 3 money? Just about EVERY mock has the Dolphins trading down (or trying) because of their need to stockpile picks, but I think that paints them as desperate and Saban isn't going to give up the farm. He'll get a few picks (probably two 4ths) from KC for Surtain IMHO and that will be that. As to the Bears, I'm paying homage to Bob Kemp on this one, I think he knows something and it just makes no sense to bring in Ron Turner and not give him a workhorse tailback to build around.

Agree on the phins being desperate to trade down, but a move with TB is not essential - a move with Minnesota could happen as we get a li'l closer to the draft (assuming they want Edwards that badly).Surtain for two fourths? Really? I need to catch up on some news/rumors. Trade Surtain and not pick up a third round pick is not a good trade for the phins and stinks of desparation, too.

Unfortunately, I think you are right that they will keep the pick - fortunately, I am nowhere near as convinced they spend that 2nd overall pick on Brown.

KC doesn't have a 3rd to offer, so it's either this year's 4th PLUS something else (they've offered their 4th only at this point) or their 2nd, which they've said No to based on existing reports.So I figured if KC thinks a 2nd is too much, but agrees that a 4th isn't enough...a 4th this year and maybe a 4th next year (which could be a 3rd conditionally) made some sense.

Saban is going to be willing to take picks in 2006 too I think. He realizes they're not one year away from contention and that gives him flexibility to get to know the team, make more personnel moves next offseason, and get a better picture of their cap for what should be a strong and top heavy 2006 draft.

I agree - but, as another thread indicates, if KC doesn't offer their #2 this year, some team with an available 3rd this year could easily snake Surtain out from the Chiefs.My guess would be, if a deal with KC happens, it'd be a fourth this year and a conditional pick next year - either a 3rd or 2nd depending on where the pick is. That would get the phins a decent number of picks in the 2006 draft, and potentially place them in contention in 2007 and for the following three years. IIRC, they have a bunch of extra picks next year, even though they are shy on picks this year.

 

[BGP]

Great job Wood!

 

[pretender]

Great Job Wood! I have to agree with everyone else, a whole lot of thought, research and thought into this. I love the picks you gave Green Bay. I can only hope it works out that way for them.

 

[Atomic Punk]

Excellent job !!! I completely agree with all of your opening comments and this draft should be a doozy with as many as 6-8 trades in rounds 1-2. There are a lot of teams that feel they are only that one special player away and will move up or trade away future picks for him.I have been suggesting a Browns/Vikings trade for some time, although I'm starting to wonder if the Vikings will exchange picks with the Fins instead. I also think the Vikings are moving up to target someone else.One of the three RBs should be available at 13-14.If the Fins don't take Brown ... what then. I've been contemplating this for weeks as almost all mocks have them taking Brown.One could go on and on with potential options, etc. Again, excellent job and look forward to reading the next version. I'm hoping to have mine up early next week.

 

[cstu]

Marc Levin re: FINs & BEARs -- Admittedly the talk is heating up re: Tampa and Miami making a trade but frankly, I'm still not buying it. If there's one position the Bucs don't have a major need it's QB, and why trade up in a year when virtually everyone else thinks Rodgers and Smith aren't worth top 3 money? Just about EVERY mock has the Dolphins trading down (or trying) because of their need to stockpile picks, but I think that paints them as desperate and Saban isn't going to give up the farm. He'll get a few picks (probably two 4ths) from KC for Surtain IMHO and that will be that. As to the Bears, I'm paying homage to Bob Kemp on this one, I think he knows something and it just makes no sense to bring in Ron Turner and not give him a workhorse tailback to build around.

Agree on the phins being desperate to trade down, but a move with TB is not essential - a move with Minnesota could happen as we get a li'l closer to the draft (assuming they want Edwards that badly).Surtain for two fourths? Really? I need to catch up on some news/rumors. Trade Surtain and not pick up a third round pick is not a good trade for the phins and stinks of desparation, too.

Unfortunately, I think you are right that they will keep the pick - fortunately, I am nowhere near as convinced they spend that 2nd overall pick on Brown.

KC doesn't have a 3rd to offer, so it's either this year's 4th PLUS something else (they've offered their 4th only at this point) or their 2nd, which they've said No to based on existing reports.So I figured if KC thinks a 2nd is too much, but agrees that a 4th isn't enough...a 4th this year and maybe a 4th next year (which could be a 3rd conditionally) made some sense.

Saban is going to be willing to take picks in 2006 too I think. He realizes they're not one year away from contention and that gives him flexibility to get to know the team, make more personnel moves next offseason, and get a better picture of their cap for what should be a strong and top heavy 2006 draft.

I agree - but, as another thread indicates, if KC doesn't offer their #2 this year, some team with an available 3rd this year could easily snake Surtain out from the Chiefs.My guess would be, if a deal with KC happens, it'd be a fourth this year and a conditional pick next year - either a 3rd or 2nd depending on where the pick is. That would get the phins a decent number of picks in the 2006 draft, and potentially place them in contention in 2007 and for the following three years. IIRC, they have a bunch of extra picks next year, even though they are shy on picks this year.

If Miami can get a 4th this year and a 3rd next year, then it's a fair trade. I still think KC is crazy not to trade a 2nd for Surtain and get it over with before someone else makes an offer of a 3rd for him.

 

[jwvdcw]

Absolutely a superfantabulous mock!

Here's my only issue:

Currently, the Titans only have two WR's on their roster - Drew Bennett & Tyrone Calico. Bennett has never been a WR#1 while Calico is coming off a major injury and is rumored to be a little behind in his rehab. There does not appear to be any significant FA's available yet the mock has the Titans passing on...

Mike Williams

Troy Williamson

Mark Clayton

Reggie Brown

Roddy White

Matt Jones

Jerome Mathis

Crap. Thorpe

Mark Bradley

I can't see the Titans letting all of these WR's get by them and there will be some very serviceable CB's later on down the line.

I'm pretty sure that Bennett was getting the attention from the #1CB on the other team at the end of last year after putting up those monster games.

 

[Outside Contain]

Best-mock-evah!I mean that...

 

[Gargoylez]

Gargoylez re: Derrick Johnson -- I don't see DJ going 3rd, I really don't. Maybe CLE trades down to 7 and take him, or someone else moves up, but I see him going somewhere between 7-12. It could happen, and I don't doubt it really, but the "buzz" (Titans message boards and papers) are hoping DJ drops to them. My guess is they would take him in a heartbeat. That would be one heck of a LB corp there. Just an observation. I truly doubt he falls out of the top 8. But thats just me.Great Mock BTW.

 

[Gargoylez]

Just wanted to add one of a few things I have read...

Phil Savage Press Conference....

He talked about ``the air being thin up there'' when a quarterback is taken so high. He talked about there being a Ryan Leaf for every Peyton Manning, an Akili Smith and Tim Couch for every Donovan McNabb. He talked about all the money being spent, the salary cap chewed up, and how you have to be right about that No. 3 pick.

He then looked at coach Romeo Crennel and mentioned how New England has won three Super Bowls with Tom Brady - a sixth-round pick.

Getting a quarterback is crucial. Despite the great Patriots defenses put together by coach Bill Belichick and Crennel, they don't win without a star such as Brady.

ALex smith at 3 or 7... not likely. Frye, Campbell in the 2nd or 3rd? Much more likely considering they are not that far off in talent from the top 2.

 

[Jason Wood]

Adding some of the latest scuttlebutt (from Next Level Scouting):

Eagles (PHI) worked out Matt Jones (WR-Arkansas) privately at the Arkansas campus this past weekend. As most know, I don't want the Eagles to reach for him with either their 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder, and currently project Jones to the Lions at the 41st pick. The Redskins also had Jones in for a private workout

Adam Bergen (TE-Lehigh) who I have as a surprise pick to CINCY in the 3rd round, has received a lot of individual attention from San Francisco and Arizona
Matt Roth (DE-Iowa) has received a ton of attention from MIN, PHI & JAX which makes some sense given their needs. I mocked Roth going to Atlanta in the late 1st round
Matt McCoy (LB-San Diego State) who I projected to San Diego in the 2nd round (much higher than most mocks) has been worked out privately by the Jets, ATL, PHI and BAL. McCoy, who visited the Jets last week, weighed 245 lbs. at their weigh in, muc heavier than his 230 collegiate playing weight
Dan Cody (DE-Oklahoma) is falling on many draft boards because of his battle with clinical depression
Carlos Rogers (CB-Auburn) has pulled even with Antrel Rolle on many NFL draft boards, making it highly unlikely he'll fall anywhere close to the 20th selection (where I have him being drafted)

 

[Sammy3469]

Carlos Rogers (CB-Auburn) has pulled even with Antrel Rolle on many NFL draft boards, making it highly unlikely he'll fall anywhere close to the 20th selection (where I have him being drafted)

I saw King had him the top 12 of his mock (ahead of Rolle) and was pretty stunned.

 

[wadegarrett]

1.03 Minnesota Vikings (via Cleveland) — WR Braylon Edwards, Michigan

Trade Parameters: Minnesota trades 1.07 and 3.80 for the rights to move up to 1.03

Cleveland gladly accepts another 3rd rounder to move down while Minnesota jumps at the chance to grab the one player they covet above all others.

Reading back through this JWood and I'll echo what Gargoylez said...For the Vikings to move up to Cleveland's pick at #3 it will probably take both of the Vikings First Round picks. According to the points system that most teams use the #3 (2200 points) pick is 100 points less than the #7 (1500 points) and #18 (800 points) picks combined.

And If I'm Phil Savage, I jump on that in a heartbeat.

 

[Jason Wood]

1.03 Minnesota Vikings (via Cleveland) — WR Braylon Edwards, Michigan

Trade Parameters: Minnesota trades 1.07 and 3.80 for the rights to move up to 1.03

Cleveland gladly accepts another 3rd rounder to move down while Minnesota jumps at the chance to grab the one player they covet above all others.

Reading back through this JWood and I'll echo what Gargoylez said...For the Vikings to move up to Cleveland's pick at #3 it will probably take both of the Vikings First Round picks. According to the points system that most teams use the #3 (2200 points) pick is 100 points less than the #7 (1500 points) and #18 (800 points) picks combined.

And If I'm Phil Savage, I jump on that in a heartbeat.

I'll say again what I said in response to Gargoylez, this isn't a normal draft. It's no secret that virtually every team in the top 5, and a good many teams in the top 20 would prefer to move down rather than move up. As such, if there really are going to be deals done, it's going to come at a cheaper than normal price IMHO. If I'm MIN, there's no way on Earth I give up both 1sts to move up 4 spots. This is really going to come down to how badly the top teams want to move down to mitigate their risk and upfront financial commitment.

 

[wadegarrett]

1.03 Minnesota Vikings (via Cleveland) — WR Braylon Edwards, Michigan

Trade Parameters: Minnesota trades 1.07 and 3.80 for the rights to move up to 1.03

Cleveland gladly accepts another 3rd rounder to move down while Minnesota jumps at the chance to grab the one player they covet above all others.

Reading back through this JWood and I'll echo what Gargoylez said...For the Vikings to move up to Cleveland's pick at #3 it will probably take both of the Vikings First Round picks. According to the points system that most teams use the #3 (2200 points) pick is 100 points less than the #7 (1500 points) and #18 (800 points) picks combined.

And If I'm Phil Savage, I jump on that in a heartbeat.

I'll say again what I said in response to Gargoylez, this isn't a normal draft. It's no secret that virtually every team in the top 5, and a good many teams in the top 20 would prefer to move down rather than move up. As such, if there really are going to be deals done, it's going to come at a cheaper than normal price IMHO. If I'm MIN, there's no way on Earth I give up both 1sts to move up 4 spots. This is really going to come down to how badly the top teams want to move down to mitigate their risk and upfront financial commitment.

We'll have to disagree on this one. I tend to think that, even in this draft, teams will not stray too far from their value pick charts. At least I hope that is the case in regards to my Browns. I'll get to ask Phil Savage first hand next Monday as I've been invited to a post draft "forum" (not sure what to call it) to discuss (and hopefully ask questions about) the draft and the Browns' strategy leading up to it.

 

[Colin Dowling]

1.03 Minnesota Vikings (via Cleveland) — WR Braylon Edwards, Michigan

Trade Parameters: Minnesota trades 1.07 and 3.80 for the rights to move up to 1.03

Cleveland gladly accepts another 3rd rounder to move down while Minnesota jumps at the chance to grab the one player they covet above all others.

Reading back through this JWood and I'll echo what Gargoylez said...For the Vikings to move up to Cleveland's pick at #3 it will probably take both of the Vikings First Round picks. According to the points system that most teams use the #3 (2200 points) pick is 100 points less than the #7 (1500 points) and #18 (800 points) picks combined.

And If I'm Phil Savage, I jump on that in a heartbeat.

I'll say again what I said in response to Gargoylez, this isn't a normal draft. It's no secret that virtually every team in the top 5, and a good many teams in the top 20 would prefer to move down rather than move up. As such, if there really are going to be deals done, it's going to come at a cheaper than normal price IMHO. If I'm MIN, there's no way on Earth I give up both 1sts to move up 4 spots. This is really going to come down to how badly the top teams want to move down to mitigate their risk and upfront financial commitment.

We'll have to disagree on this one. I tend to think that, even in this draft, teams will not stray too far from their value pick charts. At least I hope that is the case in regards to my Browns. I'll get to ask Phil Savage first hand next Monday as I've been invited to a post draft "forum" (not sure what to call it) to discuss (and hopefully ask questions about) the draft and the Browns' strategy leading up to it.

"Phil, why did you trade up to 1.01 to draft MAtt Jones?"

 

[Jason Wood]

1.03 Minnesota Vikings (via Cleveland) — WR Braylon Edwards, Michigan

Trade Parameters: Minnesota trades 1.07 and 3.80 for the rights to move up to 1.03

Cleveland gladly accepts another 3rd rounder to move down while Minnesota jumps at the chance to grab the one player they covet above all others.

Reading back through this JWood and I'll echo what Gargoylez said...For the Vikings to move up to Cleveland's pick at #3 it will probably take both of the Vikings First Round picks. According to the points system that most teams use the #3 (2200 points) pick is 100 points less than the #7 (1500 points) and #18 (800 points) picks combined.

And If I'm Phil Savage, I jump on that in a heartbeat.

I'll say again what I said in response to Gargoylez, this isn't a normal draft. It's no secret that virtually every team in the top 5, and a good many teams in the top 20 would prefer to move down rather than move up. As such, if there really are going to be deals done, it's going to come at a cheaper than normal price IMHO. If I'm MIN, there's no way on Earth I give up both 1sts to move up 4 spots. This is really going to come down to how badly the top teams want to move down to mitigate their risk and upfront financial commitment.

We'll have to disagree on this one. I tend to think that, even in this draft, teams will not stray too far from their value pick charts. At least I hope that is the case in regards to my Browns. I'll get to ask Phil Savage first hand next Monday as I've been invited to a post draft "forum" (not sure what to call it) to discuss (and hopefully ask questions about) the draft and the Browns' strategy leading up to it.

Hey, that's great wade, I'm hoping you'll give us a full and detailed report after the fact, that's a unique experience to be sure.

 

[wadegarrett]

1.03 Minnesota Vikings (via Cleveland) — WR Braylon Edwards, Michigan

Trade Parameters: Minnesota trades 1.07 and 3.80 for the rights to move up to 1.03

Cleveland gladly accepts another 3rd rounder to move down while Minnesota jumps at the chance to grab the one player they covet above all others.

Reading back through this JWood and I'll echo what Gargoylez said...For the Vikings to move up to Cleveland's pick at #3 it will probably take both of the Vikings First Round picks. According to the points system that most teams use the #3 (2200 points) pick is 100 points less than the #7 (1500 points) and #18 (800 points) picks combined.

And If I'm Phil Savage, I jump on that in a heartbeat.

I'll say again what I said in response to Gargoylez, this isn't a normal draft. It's no secret that virtually every team in the top 5, and a good many teams in the top 20 would prefer to move down rather than move up. As such, if there really are going to be deals done, it's going to come at a cheaper than normal price IMHO. If I'm MIN, there's no way on Earth I give up both 1sts to move up 4 spots. This is really going to come down to how badly the top teams want to move down to mitigate their risk and upfront financial commitment.

We'll have to disagree on this one. I tend to think that, even in this draft, teams will not stray too far from their value pick charts. At least I hope that is the case in regards to my Browns. I'll get to ask Phil Savage first hand next Monday as I've been invited to a post draft "forum" (not sure what to call it) to discuss (and hopefully ask questions about) the draft and the Browns' strategy leading up to it.

"Phil, why did you trade up to 1.01 to draft MAtt Jones?"

I may have to yell at him if he doesn't take who I wanted him to take.

 

[wadegarrett]

1.03 Minnesota Vikings (via Cleveland) — WR Braylon Edwards, Michigan

Trade Parameters: Minnesota trades 1.07 and 3.80 for the rights to move up to 1.03

Cleveland gladly accepts another 3rd rounder to move down while Minnesota jumps at the chance to grab the one player they covet above all others.

Reading back through this JWood and I'll echo what Gargoylez said...For the Vikings to move up to Cleveland's pick at #3 it will probably take both of the Vikings First Round picks. According to the points system that most teams use the #3 (2200 points) pick is 100 points less than the #7 (1500 points) and #18 (800 points) picks combined.

And If I'm Phil Savage, I jump on that in a heartbeat.

I'll say again what I said in response to Gargoylez, this isn't a normal draft. It's no secret that virtually every team in the top 5, and a good many teams in the top 20 would prefer to move down rather than move up. As such, if there really are going to be deals done, it's going to come at a cheaper than normal price IMHO. If I'm MIN, there's no way on Earth I give up both 1sts to move up 4 spots. This is really going to come down to how badly the top teams want to move down to mitigate their risk and upfront financial commitment.

We'll have to disagree on this one. I tend to think that, even in this draft, teams will not stray too far from their value pick charts. At least I hope that is the case in regards to my Browns. I'll get to ask Phil Savage first hand next Monday as I've been invited to a post draft "forum" (not sure what to call it) to discuss (and hopefully ask questions about) the draft and the Browns' strategy leading up to it.

Hey, that's great wade, I'm hoping you'll give us a full and detailed report after the fact, that's a unique experience to be sure.

Will try to take detailed notes. Not sure how it will happen or how many people will be there but definitely something I'm looking forward to.

 

[Yah_Shoor_Yoobetchya]

Absolutely a superfantabulous mock!

Here's my only issue:

Currently, the Titans only have two WR's on their roster - Drew Bennett & Tyrone Calico. Bennett has never been a WR#1 while Calico is coming off a major injury and is rumored to be a little behind in his rehab. There does not appear to be any significant FA's available yet the mock has the Titans passing on...

Mike Williams

Troy Williamson

Mark Clayton

Reggie Brown

Roddy White

Matt Jones

Jerome Mathis

Crap. Thorpe

Mark Bradley

I can't see the Titans letting all of these WR's get by them and there will be some very serviceable CB's later on down the line.

I'm pretty sure that Bennett was getting the attention from the #1CB on the other team at the end of last year after putting up those monster games.

Very true. But Bennett has never gone into a season OR played a full season as the #1WR. I'm not saying he COULDN'T, just saying that if he IS the #1WR, they still have only two WR's under contract.And how much of Bennett's production can be attributed to the double-teaming of Mason or the defense keying on the run and pinning their ears back to go after Volek while McNair was out?

 

[nerangers]

Wood man. Nice job. Loved the write ups as they give a look into each GM's thinking. That being said, I think you have the Pats all wrong. First round taking a DE? Granted Cody is probably the BPA, but the Pats have one of the youngest DLines around. They have taken first rounders DLine in the last three years (Seymour, Warren, Wilfork). They have even have good depth at that position. They also have other holes that need to be filled before adding first round dline help. LB/CB/Oline/WR are all more need than Dline at this point. Especially seeing some of the players still on the board at this point..

Same thing goes with the second round pick. Again, they do not address any of these holes. I agree that with Davey possibly leaving there would be a hole at backup qb. But I think they address that next year with a FA or drafting someone this year much later than the second round.

Again, thats just my thoughts. Great writeup. Thanks for posting it.

I was thinking the same thing...good players for the Pats, but does not address some of the issues they need too. LB and CB are priorities I would think.Overall I love how much thought you put into it...I can barely predict what one team will do than all 32.